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KPMG GLOBAL ENERGY INSTITUTE

Shale Gas: GlobalM&A TrendsFocus on Argentina,China and United States

kpmg.com

KPMG INTERNATIONAL
http://www.kpmg.com/http://www.kpmg.com/

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2/20 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member rms o the KPMG network o independent rms are aliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.

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ContentsThe Verdict is in 2

Focus on the United States 4

Focus on Argentina 8

Focus on China 10

Place your Bets 12

2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member rms o the KPMG network o independent rms are aliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.

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1The poll was conducted during the KPMG Global Energy Institute webcast Shale Gas A Game Changer or

World Energy Markets on November 10, 2011. To replay the webcast, visit the KPMG Global Energy Institute

website at: http://www.kpmginstitutes.com/global-energy-institute/2 KPMG International, January 2011. Available rom the KPMG Global Energy Institute website.

The

Verdict

2 | Shale Gas: Global M&A Trends


is in

Over the past several years, many energy analysts have said that shale gas could revolutionize theenergy industry. Shale gas is a low-cost, carbon-riendly alternative to traditional uels. Signicantdeposits are being discovered throughout the world. Shale gas is poised to supply a rising proportion

o the worlds energy needs.For these reasons, many people have been calling shale gasa game changer or world energy markets. Is there reallysubstance beneath all the hype?

In November 2010, during the rst in a series o KPMG GlobalEnergy Institute webcasts on the global shale gas industry,we asked oil and gas industry executives, primarily locatedin the United States, whether they would apply the termgame changer to shale gas.1 Over 80 percent agreed withthe statement and over 93 percent predict that investmentin shale gas exploration and development will signicantly

increase. Based on an overview o recent merger andacquisition (M&A) activity in the sector, the prediction is righton the mark.

Our white paper Shale Gas A Global Perspective2 shared ourinsights on the state o shale gas development around the

world and our views on the prospects o shale gas as part othe global energy mix. In the ollowing pages, we zero in onactors and issues aecting M&A in the shale gas sector, withspecial ocus on M&A trends in the three countries with thelarger known recoverable reserves: United States, Argentinaand China.

In a world o rising energy prices, pressure to reduce harmulemissions, and geopolitical instability, each o these countrieshas a huge stake in developing its shale gas production anddistribution capabilities and changing the game or decades

to come.

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Top 10 regions by estimated shale gas technically recoverable resources and

natural gas imports/(exports) percentages

1,400 1,275 200%

1,200

1,000 862 150%774

681800100%485600 396 388

290400 231 226

Trillion

cubic

feet 50%

200 63%

0 0%18% 45%5% 10% 4%

-200

-50%-400-53%

-600Percentage

-87% -100%

-800-1,000 -150%

-1,200-167%

-182%-1,400 -200%

Ch in a US Arg en tina Mexico So uth Africa Australia Can ad a Libya Alg eria Brazil

Source: EIA: World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment o 14 Regions Outside the United States, April 2011

For urther inormation please contact:

Wayne Chodzicki

Global Head o Oil & Gas

T: +403 691 8004E: [email protected]

Shale Gas: Global M&A Trends | 3


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FOCUSon the

United States

Shale Led Transactions

Non-Shale Upstream Transactions

0

20

40

60

80

100

OpportunitiesIn a relatively short period o time, theU.S. shale gas boom has transormedenergy markets within the country andaround the world. Current M&A in theU.S. shale gas industry indicates thatthe industry continues to mature. Major

domestic companies are consolidatingtheir shale gas interests in provenreserves, large independents arerepositioning into unproven reserves,and the industry is attracting newdomestic and oreign investment as theoverall risk prole declines.

Consolidation through acquisition

Immediately ater the 2008 nancialcrisis, joint ventures were the mostpopular means or nancing U.S. shalegas development projects. While jointventure activity in the country continues,particularly among Asian investors, it

appears to be trailing o. Instead, theindustry is seeing a shit to outrightpurchases, including asset transactionsand, more commonly, corporateacquisitions, which is allowing largercompanies to deploy more capital and togain exposure to more than one basin.

57% 68%

43%

32%

U.S. shale-led transactions* as

a percentage o total upstream

transaction value

*Includes diversied transactions that comprise a

component o non-shale assets.

Source: IHS Herold, KPMG Analysis.



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2004

Deal Count

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

17

32

61 61

40 43

9246.5

Numbersofdeals

Dealvalu

e(US$billions)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

3.9 3.9 11.812.3

24.6

47.4

34.3

88

Deal Value

U.S. shale transactions Value and count (2004 2011)

Source: IHS Herold, KPMG Analysis.

IssuesNatural Gas Liquid (NGL) price

advantage

Valuations have strengthened,particularly or basins with exposureto liquids. In the past 2 years, givenweak natural gas prices, the NGL-crudeprice linkage oered a higher incentive

or investment in liquid rich shale gasexploration and oily reserves.

Looking ahead, rising NGL volumes are

likely to depress NGL pricing relative tooil. While this movement is unlikely tostall M&A activity in the market, it maydiminish the attractiveness o wetgas shale reserves and cause risk

adjustments to uture NGL pricing invaluation models.

Infrastructure bottleneck

The lack o inrastructure in certainbasins or transporting and processingNGLs is creating a temporarybottleneck or development. Remotely

located basins ace challenges ingetting the product out o the groundand into the marketplace. Signicantinvestment in inrastructure will beneeded over the next 25 years, withcapital requirements expected toexceed US$200 billion countrywideduring that period.

Inadequate midstream inrastructure,including gathering systems, processingplants, storage elds, and liqueednatural gas terminals, could trigger price

volatility across the industry, leadingto stranded gas supplies and slowinginvestments or development o new,remotely located reserves.



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Environmental concerns

The industry aces mounting concernsabout the environmental impact ohydraulic racturing (racking), thedrilling technique that makes shalegas extraction possible. Lawsuits havebeen led against shale gas producersin at least seven states. Some stateshave imposed temporary bans on thetechnique due to concerns over possiblegroundwater contamination. Thoughsome bans have been lited, regulatoryuncertainty is causing some developersto move their activities to moreaccommodating locations.

The U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency (EPA) is working to standardizeand regulate activity at the ederal level.In December 2011, the EPA expressedconcerns that racking may havecaused groundwater contaminationin Wyoming. Eorts to standardizeracking procedures, includingdisclosure o racking fuids, continuesto evolve at the ederal level. UntilU.S. ederal policy in the area settles,regulatory uncertainty will continueto infuence M&A decisions about the

viability o shale gas investments insome basins.

M&A TrendsLong-term pricing impact

NGL price movements are expectedto continue to infuence M&A activityin the United States. In an inormalpoll conducted during a KPMG GlobalEnergy Institute webcast,3 oil and gasindustry executives were asked whatthey think is primarily driving current

M&A activity in the United States.About 46 percent o respondentsbelieve longer-term views o pricingis driving current transactions, whilelease drilling terms and protectingexisting acreage ranked a distantsecond at 22 percent.

3This second poll was conducted during the KPMG Global Energy Institute webcast Shale Gas Update:

M&A Trends on February 2, 2012. To replay the webcast, visit the Global Energy Institute website at:

http://www.kpmginstitutes.com/global-energy-institute/4 See note 3.

2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E

Upsteam Spending ($B)

Rig

count

$

billions

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

3,000

2,500

0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

2,195

145

94

129

165

191

1,266

1,846

2,267

2,479

Land Rig Count

U.S. land rig count and upstream spending orecasts

Source: Baker Hughes, JP Morgan, IHS Herold

Demand for services

In the short term, investor demand ormidstream throughput and storage,as well as oileld services (OFS), willcontinue to increase. The U.S. rig counthas more than doubled since mid-2009to over 2,000 rigs, which indicates thatproduction will continue to increasein the short term. Upstream revenuetypically outpaces spending, but 2011was an exception. As the chart shows,upstream spending in North America is

closely correlated to revenue or largecap OFS companies.

In 2011, however, OFS revenue wasup by 41 percent, compared to a37 percent increase in spending. Wealso note that consolidation o shalegas reserves by majors, independentsand international companies is shitingdemand disproportionately toward largeservice companies.

We expect that ongoing shale gasdevelopment will continue to driveactivity rom OFS companies that supporthorizontal drilling and hydraulic racturingactivities. However, consolidation in theindustry may be creating more downsiderisk or smaller service providers.

KPMG InsightsA large portion o U.S. shale reserves is now discovered, although notall have been developed. Over the long term, as these reserves aredepleted, U.S. investment in domestic shale gas will peak and investorswill look cross-border or replacement reserves. In our inormal poll4

o shale gas industry executives, 52 percent o respondents said

they believed this would begin to occur in 5 to 10 years, while25 percent believe it will happen sooner, within the next 5 years.

Where will these investors set their sights? According to thesame poll, 76 percent o respondents see uture investmentoccurring in South America, while 13 percent in Asia and9 percent in Europe.



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In our inormal poll o shale gasindustry executives, 52 percent orespondents said U.S. investment

in domestic shale gas will peak andinvestors will look cross-border orreplacement reserves.

For urther inormation please contact:Brandon Beard

Managing Director, KPMG in the

United States

T: +1 214 840 6402E: [email protected]

Drew Koecher

Partner, KPMG in the United States




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FOCUSon Argentina



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OpportunitiesArgentina relies on natural gas or 52 percent o its energysupplies. Over the past ew years, domestic production has

declined (see chart), and the country has become a net importero energy as a result. The Argentine government is looking toreverse the trend by encouraging development o the countryssizable, mostly untapped shale gas reserves. According to theU.S. Energy Inormation Administration, Argentina owns thethird largest known resource base o shale gas in the world.5

Currently, local shale gas industry is in its developmentstage, and the true extent o its potential should be revealedwithin the next 18 months. The countrys shale gas basinsare located in an accessible central province close towater supplies and ar rom populated centers, suggestingsignicant long-term potential.

Natural gas productivity in Argentina

M&A TrendsCompanies worldwide are showing interest in Argentineshale gas projects, and investment in shale gas productionis expected to reach US$1 billion in 2012. Joint ventures arecurrently the preerred model or nancing developmentactivities.

Global strategic players rom the India, Netherlands andUnited States, the and all over the world are seeking to enterthe Argentine shale gas sector. The sector is particularlyappealing to global technology and service suppliers.

The companies that have expressed interest have named jointventures with established global players and/or acquisition ojunior local players, as their preerred market entry approach.In our Global Energy Institute webcast poll o key industryexecutives on 2 February 2012, 46 percent o respondentssaid they would pursue joint ventures with junior players,while 29 percent would pursue mergers and acquisitions.Fewer respondents would pursue technological support(14 percent) or greeneld projects (9 percent).

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Gas Wells in Production (Right)

G

asProductivityperwell(thousand

cubicmetersperday)

N

umberofgaswellsinproduction

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

2,100

1,800

1,500

1,200

900

600

300

Gas Production per Well

Source: Province o Neuquen owned Oil and Gas company (Gas y Petroleo de Neuquen)

IssuesArgentina already has a well-developed gas distributioninrastructure rom natural gas operations, which has sucient

spare capacity to support new investments in shale gas.However, it lacks the technology, equipment and servicesrequired to support large-scale production. The industryssuccess hinges on the availability o capital, the developmento a supplier base, and the growth o a skilled labor pool.

Current natural gas prices in Argentina are low, and prices will needto climb to make shale gas production economically viable. Initialinvestment costs are high, but margins are expected to improveover the long-term. Argentinas gas-plus regulatory rameworkpromotes better selling prices or new oers o shale gas.

KPMG InsightsRecent discoveries and early data rom wells in productionshow great potential.

Major international oil and gas companies are lookingat this market very closely and are creating entry

strategies or execution in the near uture.6

The development o shale gas resources in Argentinahas the potential to change the countrys energybalance and largely eliminate its need to import gas.Analysts are optimistic that Argentinas shale gasindustry is poised to emulate the success o theU.S. shale gas industry.7


Mariano Sanchez

Partner, KPMG in Argentina


5 World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment o 14 Regions Outside the United States, EIA, April 5, 20116 Research tool: Emerging Market or Proprietary Intelligence, May 19, 20117 Research tool: Emerging Market or Proprietary Intelligence, May 19, 2011



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FOCUSon China

8 World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment o 14 Regions Outside the United States, EIA, April 5, 2011



OpportunitiesCompared to the United States and Argentina, China is anewcomer to the shale gas industry. Over time, the countrycould become one o the worlds largest producers. Current

estimates show Chinas shale gas reserves at up to 1,275 trillioncubic eet o shale gas reserves.8 I accurate, Chinas shale gasreserves are a dozen times greater than its conventional gasreserves and would be the worlds largest.

China wishes to diversiy its energy mix to improve its energysecurity and decrease its reliance on supplies rom oreignsources, especially the increasingly unstable Middle East.China plans to triple its natural gas use in the coming years sothat natural gas will meet 10 percent o the countrys energyneeds by 2020.

Shale gas exploration and development is a key component othe current 5 year plan, which estimates production will reach

6.5 billion cubic eet in 2015 and 80 billion cubic eet in 2020rom its current production o zero.

IssuesWith shale gas development still in its early stages, the successand speed o growth o this market within China depends on aseries o unknowns, both below and above the ground.

Below the ground, shale gas has been identied in manylocations in China but little is known about its gas composition.Early ndings have revealed potential extraction issues thatcould prove time-consuming and costly.

GasreservesintheSichuanbasintendtocontainhighamounts o corrosive and potentially lethal hydrogen sulphide,and levels o carbon dioxide and nitrogen could also be high.

SomeofChinasshalegasreservesareburiedtwiceas

deep as those in the United States, which could hinderdrilling and increase its expense as techniques used in theUnited States may not be appropriate at these sites.

Thecountryskeygaseldsaresituatedinmountainousregions, making drilling a challenge and increasing the costo building roads, bridges, pipelines and other inrastructuresupports.

Chinaskeyreservesarelocatedinareaswithhightectonic

activity, which could prevent the use o existing extractiontechniques.

Above the ground, water availability may be an issue. Thehydraulic racturing process consumes water in large quantities,but water is scarce around some o Chinas larger reserves.Other reserves located in areas such as Sichuan have water inabundance; however, China relies on these areas to grow mucho its ood supplies, including rice, which is also water-intensive.

Chinas gas inrastructure is less developed than other countrieswith large shale gas reserves. Some analysts have suggested itspipelines will not be able to handle the capacity i targeted outputis reached. Costly, large-scale pipelines may need to be builtto convey product rom the major gas elds, which presents abarrier to entry or smaller exploration and production rms.

In addition, the Chinese government has not issued legislationor set any clear guidance or shale gas exploration, marketapplication, and strategic planning. Even though shale gasdevelopment is part o Chinas current 5 year strategic plan,

detailed guidance has not been provided.

The lack o a national pricing structure is creating uncertaintyor potential investors. The government is currently

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investigating the potential structure, and it is expected to takean approach similar to its gas pricing, which some analystsbelieve puts domestically produced gas at a disadvantage.Arguing that the marginal cost o Chinas shale gas productionis signicantly higher than conventional gas, these analysts

have called on the government to deregulate gas prices oroer subsidies to make shale gas in China commercially viable.

M&A TrendsChinas strategy or developing its shale gas productioncapacity is to enter into strategic partnerships with oreigncompanies in order to help China acquire the necessary skillsand technologies. Foreign rms are not able to bid or actindependently or either extraction or inrastructure projects,but they can work under approved joint ventures withdomestic rms. Local companies apply or permits to exploreor and develop sites, ater which they can strike partnerships

with oreign investors.

A rst round o bidding or shale gas licenses was held inJuly 2011, and six companies submitted bids. It is not clearwhether the second round to be held in early 2012 will allowprivate companies to bid.

Back in 2009, China and the United States signed anagreement designed to help China measure its shale gasreserves, encourage technical cooperation, and promote jointventures between China and the United States. Since then,Chinese state-owned gas producers have entered into majortransactions with large international players to develop shalegas reserves in China and to exploit shale gas reserves inwestern Canada and the United States. In 2011, a major U.S.oil and gas company has said it aims to spend US$1 billion ayear or the next 5 years on shale gas development in China icurrent explorations prove successul.

KPMG Insights

As Chinas shale gas production advances through its earlydevelopment phase, the best opportunities appear to lie in

joint ventures between domestic and oreign rms throughboth inbound and outbound investments or extractiontechnology and potentially or inrastructure development,both o which are vital to the industrys uture.

In light o the uncertainties noted above, the commercialmarket is in an early stage o the development and it isexpected that a ully unctioning commercial marketwill occur over an extended period o time. Whilegovernment support appears strong, it is dicultto predict how the market will develop until keypolicy decisions on pricing and subsidies havebeen announced. Chinese restrictions on oreign

investment could also hamper the growth othe Chinese shale gas industry. In our GlobalEnergy Institute webcast poll o key industryexecutives on 2 February 2012, over halo respondents (52 percent) believe thatChinese government regulations on oreigninvestment will hold back the industry.




David Xu

Partner, KPMG in ChinaT: +86 10 8508 7099E: [email protected]

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Place your

Bets12 | Shale Gas: Global M&A Trends


Key fndings

Long-term pricingconsiderations are primarilydriving current U.S. M&Atransactions, according to46 percent o respondentsto a KPMG Global EnergyInstitute poll o industryexecutives locatedprimarily in the

United States.

As the discussions within this documentshow, the United States, Argentinaand China are at quite dierent stagesin shale gas development. RecentM&A activity in each country diersaccordingly.

IntheUnitedStates,amaturingshale

gas industry is seeing consolidation,repositioning and the entry o new

domestic and oreign investors intothe sector.

Argentinaisonthecuspoflarge-scale

production, and its local producersare looking or joint venture partnersto help develop the industrystremendous potential.

Chinaisexploringitssizablereserves,

seeking equipment and know-howthrough international partnerships.

The trends towards increasing shale

gas exploration, development andproduction and the related trendstoward increasing M&A activity are notconned to the United States, Argentina

and China. They exist elsewhere inthe world, including Australia, Brazil,Canada, Eastern Europe, Mexico, theMiddle East and South Arica.

Survey respondents believe thatinvestments and M&A activity will soonmove rom mature markets (e.g., theU.S.) to other markets where shale gaspotential has yet to reach its potential.In reality, we believe this transition hasalready begun. International shale gas

investors who have been ocusing onthe U.S. are already looking beyond itsborders. Given the abundance o shalegas reserves, investors have a world ochoices as to where they invest next.

So where will these investors place theirbets? Based on our survey o primarilyU.S. industry executives, more eyes areon opportunities in South Americancountries like Argentina than in the AsiaPacic and Europe. While industryexecutives in other countries may

have alternative geographic targets,investment dollars typically tendto fow to more investor-riendlylocations, and so they are mostlikely to invest in countriesthat compete by creating theright conditions to attractinvestment.

Compared to otherlocations, China appearsless open to oreigninvestment in shale gas

development. Beoreplacing their bets here,investors will likely waitto see what shale gas

pricing policies and government supportmechanisms are put in place. Investorsseem similarly wary o European shalegas opportunities due to environmentalissues and uncertainty over how theindustry will be regulated.

On the other hand, Argentina hasactively promoted oreign investmentin its shale gas industry and oeredenthusiastic government support. Earlyindications suggest that the country

is already drawing a larger share oshale gas investment. While the shalegas industry will continue to createopportunities in the U.S., China andaround the world, Argentina seems setto emulate the U.S. shale gas successin the near term.

Key fndings

Accordingto76percentof

respondents, South America willbecome the destination o choice

or companies investing in shale gasoutside the United States, trailed by

the Asia Pacic (13 percent) and Europe(9 percent).

Morerespondentswouldseektoenterthe

Argentine shale gas industry through jointventures with junior partners (46 percent)

than through M&A deals (29 percent) ortechnological support partnerships

(14 percent).

Morethan50percentofrespondentsbelieve that Chinas restrictions on oreign

investment will hold back shale gasdevelopment in the country.

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Further insight

Recent KPMG Oil & Gas Thought Leadership

1. Shale Gas A Global Perspective: this publication examines thestate o gas development in selected countries and oers viewson the prospects o shale gas as part o the worlds energy mix andwhether this source o energy is a game-changer as some haveclaimed.

2. Ater the Gul o Mexico Oil Spill: recent developments in theoil and gas industry. This paper reviews some o the many impactso the spill, including changes to operating models, contractorrelationships, business risks and a number o new and proposedregulations.

3. Procurement in Oil & Gas, published by KPMGs Global EnergyInstitute, ocuses on procurement in the oil and gas industry andhighlights trends and tools as well as issues and challenges in bothup-stream and down-stream sectors o the industry.

4. Accounting or Carbon discusses the impact o carbon tradingon nancial statements. It provides insights and strategies to helporganizations understand and manage the business implications oclimate change.

5. Impact o IFRS Oil and Gas (September 2011) This publication

provides assistance to companies in the oil and gas sector whoare considering converting to IFRS. It gives an overview o theIFRS conversion process and looks at the impact o conversion onIT systems, people and business processes.

Recent Global Energy Institute Webcasts

1.Oil & Gas Trends and M&A Landscape

2.Transer Pricing Issues in the Oil & Gas Supply Chain

3.Key Tax Developments and Issues Aecting the Oil and GasIndustry

4.Shale Gas A global perspective

5. Shale Gas Merger and acquisition trends

For more inormation please visit:

www.kpmg.com/energywww.kpmgglobalenergyinstitute.comwww.kpmgglobalenergyconerence.com



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The KPMG Global Energy Institute (GEI):

launched in 2007, the GEI is a worldwideknowledge-sharing orum on current andemerging industry issues. This vehicleor accessing thought leadership, events,webcasts, and podcasts about keyindustry topics and trends provides a way oryou to share your perspectives on the challengesand opportunities acing the energy industry arming you with new tools to better navigate the

changes in this dynamic arena.www.kpmgglobalenergyinstitute.com

The KPMG Global Energy Conerence: TheKPMG Global Energy Conerence (GEC) isKPMGs premier event or nancial executivesin the energy industry. Presented by the KPMGGlobal Energy Institute, the GEC attracts morethan 600 proessionals each year and bringstogether energy nancial executives romaround the world in a series o interactivediscussions with industry luminaries. The goalo the conerence is to provide participants withnew insights, tools, and strategies to help themmanage industry-related issues and challenges.

www.kpmgglobalenergyconerence.com
http://www.kpmgglobalenergyinstitute.com/http://www.kpmgglobalenergyconference.com/http://www.kpmgglobalenergyconference.com/http://www.kpmgglobalenergyinstitute.com/

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Notes



7/29/2019 Gas Shale 1

19/20 2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member rms o the KPMG network o independent rms are aliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.

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Contact us

Michiel Soeting

Global Chairman

Energy & Natural Resources

T: +44 20 7694 3052E:[email protected]

Wayne Chodzicki

Global Head o Oil & GasT: +403 691 8004E: [email protected]

Brandon Beard

Managing Partner

KPMG in the United States

T: +214 840 6402E: [email protected]

Drew Koecher

Partner

KPMG in the United StatesT: +214 840 2576E: [email protected]

Mariano Sanchez

Partner

KPMG in Argentina


David Xu

Partner

KPMG in China


kpmgglobalenergyinstitute.com

kpmg.com/energy

The inormation contained herein is o a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances o any particular individual

or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely inormation, there can be no guarantee that such inormation is

accurate as o the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the uture. No one should act on such inormation

without appropriate proessional advice ater a thorough examination o the particular situation.

2012 KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International), a Swiss entity. Member irms o the KPMG network o

independent irms are ailiated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member irm has any

authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member irm vis--vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have

any such authority to obligate or bind any member irm. All rights reserved.

The KPMG name, logo and cutting through complexity are registered trademarks or trademarks o KPMG International.

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