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  • Global Research

    Sector - Petrochemical

    March 2013

    GCC Petrochemical Sector Quarterly – 4Q12

    GCC petrochemical companies profit fell 3.4% YoY and 17.2% QoQ

    Gross margin of the sector dropped to 31.5% in 4Q12 from 33.5% in 3Q12

    Shale Gas & CTO technology pose grave threat to GCC in the long run

    Low gas (Henry Hub) price provides opportunity to many petrochemical co.

    GCC petrochemical companies profit fell 3.4% YoY and 17.2% QoQ GCC petrochemical companies 4Q12 earnings declined by 3.4% YoY to USD2.58bn compared to USD2.67bn in the same period last year. On a QoQ basis the earnings declined by 17.2%. Fourth quarter performances of various petrochemical companies were poor than previous quarter as prices of various petrochemical products declined along with that various petrochemical companies plant underwent maintenance shutdowns. Within the GCC petrochemical companies, Global Research Petrochemical Universe witnessed 10.4% decrease in profitability during 4Q12 on a QoQ basis.

    Gross margin of the sector dropped to 31.5% in 4Q12 from 33.5% in 3Q12 Petrochemical companies under Global Research coverage reported drop in the gross margin on a QoQ and YoY basis. Gross margin in 4Q12 stood at 31.5% despite 8.1% QoQ increase in the revenue. Cost on the other hand rose by 11.5% due to maintenance shutdown at some of the plants of IQ and SABIC (or its subsidiaries). Among Global’s universe, SIPCHEM margins dropped the most by 16pps followed by 3.6pps drop reported by DANA. Only Industries Qatar witnessed a marginal increase in margins by a percent.

    New feedstock developments to affect Middle Eastern producers in the long run The cost and margin advantages that Middle East petrochemical companies have enjoyed during the past few decades will likely decline in the long run as North American ethane from shale gas, Chinese Coal-to-Olefins (CTO) technology, Australian shale gas and Iraqi ethane pave their way into the market. Although many countries have been producing ethane from shale gas in the past, production has increased sharply during the past five to ten years because of a number of reasons. Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing & horizontal drilling techniques offer access to reserves that had previously been limited due to various obstacles. On the other hand, China has made significant new investments in CTO technology, which entails converting the coal into syngas and then methanol at a median cost. Apart from that huge gas reserve finds across Turkmenistan and Mozambique has the potential to put these countries in the petrochemical producer league. Although, these developments would take atleast 5-8 years to take off in a big way, necessary steps are required by the Middle Eastern producers to ward off such future challenges.

    Low gas (Henry Hub) price provides opportunity to many petrochemical companies Despite two quarters of consecutive increase in the gas prices, international gas price stand at USD3.4/mmbtu at the end of 4Q12 which in June 2008 stood at USD12.7/mmbtu. Indian Birla Group is considering buying his first fertilizer plant in the U.S. to benefit from a significant drop in prices of natural gas used to fuel the factories. Various companies in Europe and Asia get gas at USD12-15/mmbtu which is why many Chinese and European companies also wish to benefit from the low gas prices in US.

    Global Research Petrochemical Coverage

    Ticker Mkt Cap Price* P/E P/BV ROE

    (USDmn) In (LC) 1m 3m 12m 2013e 2013e 2013e

    SABIC, KSA 73,994.1 92.25 -0.8% 3.1% -8.9% 9.9 1.6 17.3%

    SIPCHEM, KSA 1,926.1 18.90 -0.5% 1.6% -16.4% 10.2 1.2 12.6%

    SAFCO, KSA 12,515.7 154.00 -0.6% 2.7% 9.8% 10.3 6.8 61.3%

    YANSAB, KSA 6,959.4 50.75 -4.7% 12.0% -1.0% 9.1 2.0 23.0%

    IQ, Qatar 20,949.9 170.00 0.4% 11.8% 18.8% 9.8 2.6 27.4%

    Source: Bloomberg & Global Research

    * Market prices as of 05 March 2013

    Stock Performance

    GC

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    Q12

    Faisal Hasan, CFA

    Head of Research [email protected] Tel: (965) 2295-1270 Hettish Karmani

    Senior Financial Analyst [email protected] Tel: (965) 2295-1281 Global Investment House www.globalinv.net

  • Global Research – GCC GCC Petrochemical Quarterly Report

    March 2013 2

    GCC Petrochemical Companies Financial Performance GCC petrochemical companies 4Q12 earnings declined by 3.4% YoY to USD2.58bn compared to USD2.67bn in

    the same period last year. On a QoQ basis the earnings declined by 17.2% mainly because of lower income

    reported by SABIC, IQ & RABIGH. SABIC’s profit rose by 11.3% YoY (contributing 60.2% in 4Q12 compared to

    54% in 3Q12 and 52.2% in 4Q11). Fourth quarter performances of various petrochemical companies were poor

    than previous quarter as prices of various petrochemical products declined along with that various petrochemical

    companies plant underwent maintenance shutdowns.

    GCC Petrochemical Sector Companies Profitability

    (USD mn) 4Q11 4Q12 Chg (%) 2011 2012 Chg (%)

    SABIC 1,396.6 1,555.1 11.3% 7,790.1 6,591.5 -15.4%

    IQ 463.2 490.2 5.8% 2,178.8 2,318.9 6.4%

    SAFCO 340.4 305.7 -10.2% 1,095.9 1,031.0 -5.9%

    KAYAN (50.9) (51.9) n/m (66.7) (205.9) n/m

    YANSAB 177.3 170.9 -3.6% 846.5 652.4 -22.9%

    TASNEE 144.6 64.5 -55.4% 651.0 470.4 -27.8%

    RABIGH 13.4 18.2 35.3% 17.6 130.4 641.9%

    PETROCHEM (7.6) (106.4) n/m (17.1) (121.7) n/m

    SIPCHEM 188.2 42.0 -77.7% 320.2 160.3 -49.9%

    SAHARA 1.3 17.2 1188.3% 109.8 54.5 -50.3%

    APC 24.2 31.2 29.2% 136.7 87.5 -36.0%

    CHEMANOL 6.2 4.0 -34.9% 18.7 24.4 30.2%

    ALUJAIN (6.6) 4.5 n/m (2.7) 13.7 n/m

    NAMA (61.3) 0.9 n/m (65.7) (6.3) n/m

    DANA 40.1 31.1 -22.4% 137.9 164.9 19.6%

    SHELL OMAN 5.3 7.0 33.3% 32.7 31.9 -2.5%

    GCC 2,674.4 2,584.3 -3.4% 13,183.7 11,397.8 -13.5%

    Profitability 4Q11 4Q12 Chg (%) 2011 2012 Chg (%)

    Saudi Arabia 2,165.9 2,056.0 -5.1% 10,834.3 8,882.1 -18.0%

    Qatar 463.2 490.2 5.8% 2,178.8 2,318.9 6.4%

    Oman 5.3 7.0 33.3% 32.7 31.9 -2.5%

    UAE 40.1 31.1 -22.4% 137.9 164.9 19.6%

    Sector 2,674.4 2,584.3 -3.4% 13,183.7 11,397.8 -13.5%

    Composition 4Q11 4Q12 Chg (%) 2011 2012 Chg (%)

    Saudi Arabia 81.0% 79.6% - 82.2% 77.9% -

    Qatar 17.3% 19.0% - 16.5% 20.3% -

    Oman 0.2% 0.3% - 0.2% 0.3% -

    UAE 1.5% 1.2% - 1.0% 1.4% -

    Sector 100.0% 100.0% - 100.0% 100.0% -

    Source: Company Reports & Zawya Some of the companies which witnessed significant surprises in their results were NAMA Chemical, PETRO

    RABIGH and PETROCHEM. NAMA Chemical income compared to losses in last year quarter was due to increase

    of productions and increase of sales, while in during the 4th quarter of 2011 the value of the assets of Hassad

    project was reduced and transferred it to the income statement, in addition to amortization account of the change in

    the interest rate swap and the account of projects under development.

    PETRO RABIGH better performance on a YoY basis during 4Q12 can be attributed to improved gross profit as a

    result of higher operation capacity in 2012 compared to 2011 when plant shutdown was experienced due to

    periodical test and inspection while the decline on a QoQ basis can be attributed to significant increase in the cost

    of sales which dropped the gross profit to merely SAR389.5mn compared to SAR691.3mn in 3Q12.

  • Global Research – GCC GCC Petrochemical Quarterly Report

    March 2013 3

    The National Petrochemical Co. (PETROCHEM) reported a significant increase in losses on a YoY basis due to shutdown of the company project (Saudi Polymers Company) for a period of 50days. Saudi Kayan continued to remain in losses as higher financial charges and operating expenses continued to haunt the company’s operating performance. As of latest financials, KAYAN has debt obligations worth SAR29.7bn which are to be paid over a period of 15years.

    Global Research Petrochemical Universe Financial Performance Within the GCC petrochemical companies, Global Research Petrochemical Universe witnessed 10.4% decrease in profitability during 4Q12 on a QoQ basis. Drop in profitability was majorly due to increase in cost of sales which dropped the gross margin of the companies under coverage to 24.9% compared to 26.7% in the previous quarter. Among Global’s universe, SIPCHEM margins dropped the most by 16pps followed by 3.6pps drop reported by DANA. Only Industries Qatar witnessed an increase in the gross margin; marginally by a percent. Sales revenue of the Universe rose by 8.1% to USD15.8bn in 4Q12 compared to USD14.6bn in the previous quarter. SABIC’s 10.1% increase in revenue was instrumental in raising the total topline of the sector. Increase in revenue of the overall sector can be attributed to higher quantities sold as demand from China and Europe rose.

    Global Research Universe - GCC Petrochemical Sector Consolidated Financials

    3Q12 4Q12 Chg (%) 2011 2012 Chg (%)

    Sales Revenue 14,658 15,849 8.1% 60,691 61,019 0.5%

    Cost of Sales 9,741 10,861 11.5% 38,937 41,343 6.2%

    Gross Profit 4,917 4,988 1.4% 21,754 19,676 -9.5%

    Operating Expense 1,003 1,044 4.1% 3,943 3,968 0.6%

    Operating Profit 3,914 3,944 0.8% 17,816 15,708 -11.8%

    Financial Charges 234 232 -0.9% 1,087 950 -12.7%

    Net Profit 2,896 2,595 -10.4% 12,237 10,919 -10.8%

    Assets 115,663 117,508 1.6% 115,663 117,508 1.6%

    Equity 54,907 57,287 4.3% 54,907 57,287 4.3%

    Debt 32,879 31,884 -3.0% 32,879 31,884 -3.0%

    Cash & Bank Balance 18,610 18,490 -0.6% 18,610 18,490 -0.6%

    Liabilities 60,756 60,221 -0.9% 60,756 60,221 -0.9%

    3Q12 4Q12 Chg 2011 2012 Chg

    Gross Margins (%) 33.5% 31.5% -207bps 35.8% 32.2% -360bps

    Operating Exp. as % of Assets (%) 3.5% 3.6% 9bps 3.4% 3.4% -3bps

    Operating Margins (%) 26.7% 24.9% -182bps 29.4% 25.7% -361bps

    Net Margins (%) 19.8% 16.4% -338bps 20.2% 17.9% -227bps

    Financial Charges as % of Debt (%) 2.9% 2.9% 6bps 3.3% 3.0% -33bps

    Debt as % of Assets (%) 28.4% 27.1% -129bps 28.4% 27.1% -129bps

    Liabilities as % of Assets (%) 52.5% 51.2% -128bps 52.5% 51.2% -128bps

    Cash as % of Assets (%) 16.1% 15.7% -35bps 16.1% 15.7% -35bps

    Equity as % of Assets (%) 47.5% 48.8% 128bps 47.5% 48.8% 128bps

    Return on Equity (%) 21.1% 18.1% -298bps 22.3% 19.1% -323bps

    Return on Assets (%) 10.0% 8.8% -118bps 10.6% 9.3% -129bps

    Source: Company Report

    * Consolidated Financials of 6 Listed Companies

    (USD mn)

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    Internationally, gas prices rose again during the quarter. Price of natural gas (Henry Hub); feedstock used in the petrochemical industry rose by 18.2% on a QoQ basis. The increase in price has come mainly because of increased heating use, a switch from coal to gas in power plants, and declining production rates.

  • Global Research – GCC GCC Petrochemical Quarterly Report

    March 2013 4

    Global Research Petrochemical Companies – 4Q12 Result Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC): Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) reported 4Q12 net income of SAR5.83bn compared to SAR5.23n for the same quarter last year, representing an increase of 11.3% and compared to the net income of previous quarter of 2012 of SAR6.3bn, representing a decline of 7.6%. The increase in net income for the 4Q12 on a YoY basis can be attributed to higher sales volumes and sales prices for certain products while the drop in income registered on a QoQ basis despite improvement in some product prices was due to higher cost of sales. Gross margins during 4Q12 dropped to 28.1% compared to 29.4% in 3Q12. The results on a QoQ were lower also because of recording of polycarbonate licensing gains in the third quarter and widening losses of Saudi Kayan in 4Q12. The decrease in net income for the twelve month period compared to the same period in 2011 was due to higher cost of sales and lower sales prices for certain products, despite higher sales and production volumes and reduction in financial charges. Saudi Arabia Fertilizer Company (SAFCO): SAFCO registered a QoQ decline in net income of merely 0.26% during 4Q12. Net Income reported during 4Q12 was SAR1,146mn against SAR1,148.9mn in 3Q12 and against SAR1,277mn for the same quarter last year. Company attributed the decline on a QoQ basis to drop in sales volume of Ammonia while on a YoY basis the drop in income was because of fall in prices of Urea. Overall SAFCO registered net income of SAR3,608mn for the twelve month period of 2012 compared to SAR 3,765mn for the same period last year, a decline of 4.17%. The drop in income for the full year period was attributed by the Company to lower sales quantities as a result of low production due to annual turnaround for some of the plants, and lower SAFCO share from Ibn Albaytar net income. Saudi International Petrochemical Company (SIPCHEM): SIPCHEM reported net income of SAR157.7mn in 4Q12 which were lesser by 25.3% on a YoY basis while were up marginally on a QoQ basis. The reason for the decline during current quarter compared to same quarter last year was due to the decrease in profit margins as a result of decrease in products prices and increase in feedstock prices of Butane and Ethylene. While on a QoQ basis the results were fairly better because of slight increase in most of company products prices. Management reported that in spite of the significant decrease in the prices of most of company products during the year, the current year witnessed an improvement in the operating performance of company plants where the production/sales quantities increased by 4%. Net profit during 2012 amounted to SAR601.2mn compared to SAR705.9mn for the same period last year, decline of 14.8%. Industries Qatar (IQ): Industries Qatar posted a 5.84% rise in fourth-quarter net profit as losses from fertilizer shutdowns hurt profitability. Company made a net profit of QAR1.78bn for the fourth quarter compared with QAR1.68 billion riyals a year earlier. Shutdowns in the company’s ammonia and urea facilities weighed on the results. IQ made a full-year net profit of QAR8.44b, compared with QAR7.93bn in 2011. A proposed QAR8.5/share cash dividend and 10% stock dividend awaits approval by the general assembly. After the proposed bonus issue the shares would rise from 550mn to 605mn. Yanbu National Petrochemical Company (YANSAB): YANSAB reported net income of SAR640.7mn for the 4Q12 compared to SAR664.8mn for the same quarter last year, a decrease of 3.6% and compared to SAR435.7mn for the previous quarter, an increase of 47.1%. The decrease in the quarter compared to the last year is mainly due to lower prices of most products, however, the increase in the sold quantities contributed to the reduction of the decrease. Company realized gross profit of SAR788.9mn (Gross margin: 31.5%) for the fourth quarter 2012 compared to SAR786mn (Gross margin: 32.4%) for the same quarter last year. Operating profit of SAR728mn (Operating margin: 29.1%) for the fourth quarter 2012 compared to SAR734mn (Operating margin: 30.3%) for the same quarter last year was down merely by a percent. Dana Gas (DANA): DANA reported 4Q12 net income of AED114mn compared to 3Q12 and 4Q11 net income of AED104mn and AED147mn respectively. The company saw full-year net profit rise 20% to AED605mn compared to AED506mn last year. Dana 's full-year revenues fell by 7.8% compared to 2011, as a result of delays in collecting receivables as well as a temporary halt to production of liquefied petroleum gas in Kurdistan due to an accident. Revenues are expected to increase once new discoveries in Egypt are brought to production and the Kurdistan LPG loading bay is repaired by 2Q13.

  • Global Research – GCC GCC Petrochemical Quarterly Report

    March 2013 5

    Event Update post 4Q12 Saudi Arabia to have the largest Butanol plant in World to support paints industry A three-way shareholders agreement to establish the Saudi Butanol Company, which will produce Butanol to support the continued growth of the paints and coatings industry in Saudi Arabia, has been signed by the Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company (SAUDI KAYAN), a manufacturing affiliate of the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), Sadara Chemical Company (Sadara), a joint venture developed by Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) and The Dow Chemical Company (Dow), and Saudi Acrylic Acid Company (SAAC), an affiliate of National Industrialization Company ( Tasnee ) and Sahara Petrochemicals Company. This will be the first ever Butanol plant in the Middle East and the largest in the world. To be located at Tasnee Petrochemicals Complex in Jubail Industrial City and operated by Tasnee , the new plant is scheduled to go on-stream in the first quarter of 2015. Under the agreement, the three partners will have equal stake in the production quantities for downstream use or for sales in the local and overseas markets. The design capacity of the plant, which is scheduled to go on-stream in 2015, is 330,000tpa of n-butanol and 11,000tpa of iso-butanol. SABIC will be marketing the SAUDI KAYAN share of the butanol plant along with the excess material of SAAC. The estimated total cost of the project is SAR1,939mn. SABIC new plant in Germany set Saudi Basic Industries Corporation ( SABIC ) is preparing a plant in Gelsenkirchen, Germany to produce bimodal HDPE for blow molded bottle applications. Commercial production is due to start in the second quarter of this year. The company is currently fine-tuning the grades and is already in talks with potential customers. Initially, the Gelsenkirchen plant will supply two grades, both with a density of 0.958 g/cm3, and with melt flow rates of 22 and 28 g/10 min (21.6 kg) respectively. The same grades, as well as grades intended for jerry cans, drums and other large containers, will also be produced at one of the company's plants in the Kingdom. Production will start in the third quarter of 2013. Saudi Sipchem says signs USD280mn refinancing deals Three affiliates of Saudi International Petrochemical Company ( Sipchem ) have refinanced loan facilities worth SAR1.04bn (USD276mn) which were used to fund their key projects. International Acetyl Company, International Vinyl Acetate Company and International Gas Company have converted dollar-denominated loans raised in 2008 to build respective manufacturing plants into new long-term facilities denominated in riyals. The first installment is due to be repaid in the second half of 2013, with the loan for IGC running until 2022 and the IAC/IVAC facility to be paid off by 2024. Saudi Sipchem resumes operation of Diol plant after regular maintenance Saudi International Petrochemical Co. or Sipchem , said its local unit International Diol Co. resumed the operations of its plant after a temporarily halt for scheduled periodic maintenance. Sipchem said in a statement posted on the Saudi bourse website that the impact of the operations' halt on its first-quarter results would be about SAR7.8mn (USD2.08mn). Dana Gas starts production from new discoveries in Egypt Dana Gas PJSC, announced the West Sama-1 and Allium-1 fields in Egypt have commenced commercial production, less than 2 months after initial well testing was conducted. These new fields are among the three discoveries made by Dana Gas in Egypt’s Nile Delta Basin during the Company’s 2012 multi-well drilling program. Dana Gas plans to bring the other field, Balsam-1, into production in H2 2013. Gas production at West Sama-1 and Allium-1 has been routed through Dana Gas’ South El Manzala and El Wastani gas plant respectively. Production from the two wells is expected to add 3,450boepd (20mmcfd) to the Company’s 2012 Egypt year-end output rate of 32,000boepd. Dana Gas is continuing constructive discussions with the authorities on our remaining outstanding receivables, having received USD163mn from the Government in 2012. Dana Gas sells part stake in Hungary's MOL for USD135mn Dana Gas, raised USD135mn from the sale of about half its stake in MOL, a Hungarian oil and gas firm. Dana sold 1.675mn shares in MOL, one of Dana 's partners in a gas project in Iraq's Kurdistan region. The sale of the 1.6% stake leaves Dana with a 1.4% shareholding in MOL. The proceeds from the MOL share sale will be used to meet short-term obligations, including Dana 's sukuk restructuring obligations.

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