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GCOS and IPCC Future directions of IPCC and

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GCOS and IPCC Future directions of IPCC and how GCOS can support climate science and assessment. Presentation by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC Geneva, 14 October 2008. Observations of physical climate. IPCC. Observations - Some key uncertainties. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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  • GCOS and IPCC Future directions of IPCC and how GCOS can support climate science and assessment Presentation by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC Geneva, 14 October 2008

  • Observations of physical climate IPCC

  • Observations - Some key uncertainties Total and low level cloud change over oceansQuantifying trends in precipitationSoil moisture and streamflowExtreme events In situ snow data Thickness of Arctic ice Glacier mass loss Mass balance of ice sheets and ice sheet flowTrends in the MOC

  • It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systemsObserved changes in physical and biological systems since 1970 Marked scarcity of observational data in developing countries

    IPCC

  • Observed impacts - research needsImproved observation networks to enhance research capability on changes in physical, biological and socio-economic systems, particularly in regions with sparse data;

    to improve functional understanding of the responses of natural and managed systems to climate change.

    Documented evidence on adaptation to regional climate trends just emerging

  • Post-AR4: Closing the loop between mitigation and impacts(Parry, et al., Nature Reviews Climate Change, 2008)IPCC

  • IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

    Further guidance by IPCC-30 March/April 2009Scoping meeting(s) 2009Approval of outline by IPCC-31 end 2009/early 2010Finalization of WG I Report early 2013Finalization of Reports by Working Groups II and III 2014Finalization of the Synthesis report 2014Start planning for SYR earlier in the process Timetable determined by work on new scenarios carried out by scientific community to enable significant use of the new scenarios in developing the AR5IPCC

  • The new IPCC Bureau and TFBElected on 4 September for AR5 PeriodIPCC

  • New scenarios development process parallel vs. sequential approachIPCC

  • New scenarios development process interactions for scenario developmentIPCC

  • IPCC

    ProductPhaseTime to ProduceShort DescriptionProduct 1: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)Prep. Phase12 monthsFour RCPs will be produced and include time paths for emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover (see Table A1.1). Extension of RCPs to 2300 a research issue.Product 2: Climate Model Ensembles and Pattern ScalingParallel Phase

  • New scenarios development process and indicative AR5 timelineIPCC

    2008200920102011201220132014AR5 ScopingWG IWG IIWG IIISYR

  • AR5 scope some key questions

    Future changes in climate, impacts and socio economic conditions based on new scenarios Economics of vulnerability and adaptationDevelopment of a regional approach in complement to the global approach, particularly in assessing the impacts and vulnerabilityCoordinated treatment of adaptation and mitigation within an integrated sustainable development strategy Regional knowledge on adaptation and mitigationIPCC

  • Specific suggestions for Special Reports or AR5 FocusAbrupt changes in the climate systemSynergy with other environmental conventions and SD Adaptation, including an assessment of current practice Specific regional or sub-regional IAV assessments including coastal areas, deltas and SIDS Effectiveness of mitigation measures, including emissions trading Sectoral assessments addressing technology, renewable energy and energy efficiency; lifestyle and consumption patters, forests and deforestation; water; health; transport

    IPCC

  • Other planned or potential IPCC outputs

    Special Report on Renewable Energy sources LA selection ongoing, first LA meeting January 2009, Report to be finalized end of 2010

    ? Special Report on Special Report on managing risks of extreme events to advance climate change adaptation

    Scoping meeting to be held early 2009IPCC-30 will decide on SR or integration in AR5

    ? Methodology work on alternative common metrics to calculate the CO2 equivalence of anthropogenic emissions

    Expert meeting planned to advise on next steps

    IPCC

  • IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts and Climate AnalysisTGICA facilitates wide availability of climate change related data and scenarios relevant to impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, and mitigation research, Manages the Data Distribution Center (DDC) and contributes to building capacity in the use of data and scenarios for climate related research

    DDC provides data sets (climatological baselines, observations, other environmental, technological, and socio-economic factors) climate and other scenarios other materials (e.g., technical guidelines on use of scenarios)

    Next Meeting of TGICA 19-21 Nov 2008 in Geneva

    IPCC

    **

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