8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

1/25

Global Cement & Clinker Trade:Prospects to 2025

Elaine ChenOcean Shipping Consultants, UK

www.osclimited.com

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

2/25

Structure

Cement Demand

Cement & Clinker Trade

Cement Shipping

Future Outlook

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

3/25

World Cement Consumption

19812011

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

4/25

Cement Consumption b! "e#ion

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

5/25

Cement $emand Gro%t b! "e#ion

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

6/25

Cement Trade and Sippin#

!out "#$% o world cement consumption istraded

Estimated '()mt in *+'' "%-

!out /#$+% o world cement trade is mo0ed

!1 sea

Estimated '*)mt in *+'' "%-

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

7/25

World Cement Trade 199'2011

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

8/25

Cement Trade b! "e#ion 2011

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

9/25

Trade: (mports Gro%t b! "e#ion

199'2011

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

10/25

Trade: )*ports Gro%t b! "e#ion

199'2011

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

11/25

Cement Sippin#

2ulk carried out !1 !oth general !ulk carriersand specialist cement carriers

ected !1

Demand & suppl1 o specialist cement carriers

Demand & suppl1 o general !ulk carriers

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

12/25

Specialist Cement Carriers +

Si,e Pro-ile

WORLD CEMENT CARRIER FLEET - BY TYPE

(NUMBER OF VESSELS, 2011)

OTHERS

78%

SELF-

UNLOADERS

22%

3orld leet *+''-4

/*( 0essels, *./m

D3T

Sel#unloaders

5" 0essels **%-

+.5)m dwt )/%-

0erage 5,$++dwt

Other 0essels ))' 0essels $%-

'.$m dwt ((%-

0erage ",/(+dwt

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

13/25

Specialist Cement Carriers +

.#e Pro-ile

-1965 1966-

70

1971-

75

1976-

80

1981-

85

1986-

90

1991-

95

1996-

00

2001-

05

2006-

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Num

be

rofVessels

CEMENT CARRIER FLEET -

BY TYPE & YEAR OF BUILD

SELF-UNLOADERS

OTHERS

6on#sel#unloadernew!uildings ha0esharpl1 decreased since

the *+++s Onl1 ' sel#unloader

added during '55(#

*++", !ut highernum!er since

6ew orders dominated

!1 sel#unloaders

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

14/25

Specialist Cement Carriers +

/la# Pro-ile and )mplo!ment

3ide 0ariet1 in terms o geographic spread andsailing patterns

7inks !etween emplo1ment pattern and

Flag con0enience lag 0s. national lag-

8essel si9e

Operators

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

15/25

General ulk Carriers +

Sector erie%

Dictated !1 Capesi9e 0essels Tonnage

Freight

Knock#on eects on other smaller#si9e sectors Cement shipping inluenced !1 actors outside the

cement sector

cti0e in cement transport are Small:;and1 si9e, withsome ;and1ma

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

16/25

General ulk Carriers +

"ecent Capacit! $eelopment

10--40 40--60 60--80 80+0

50

100

150

200

250

millionDW

T

Vessel Size ('000 DWT)

BULK CARRIER FLEET : DEVELOPMENT BY SIZE

SECTOR 2001-11 (END-YEAR)

2001 2005 2011e

0erage tonnage4

*++"4 "(,)++ e-

*+''4 +,'++ e- Eect o the

increasing

importance oCapesi9e 0essels

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

17/25

General ulk Carriers +

/rei#t 3olatilit!

BALTIC DRY INDEX 2003-11

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

18/25

General ulk Carriers +4atest $eelopment and (mplications

Current low reight rates >ncreased scrapping in past 1ears, esp. in *+''

Still signiicant tonnage on order Continued leet e

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

19/25

utlook 2025:

Cement & Clinker Trade Gro%t

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

20/25

utlook 2025:

Trade Gro%t b! "e#ion

O0erall, import 0olumes to !e dominated !1rica

sia >mport growth prospects to *+*"4

7arge#scale growth or rica and 6. merica

7imited e

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

21/25

utlook 2025:

(mports Gro%t b! "e#ion

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

22/25

Cement Studies

6ew stud1 pu!lished in *+'*

@World Cement Trade & Sippin#

& the outlook to *+*"

*+''4 6World Cement to 2025

Countr1#!1#countr1 orecasts and anal1ses

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

23/25

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

24/25

8/14/2019 GCT12_02_Chen.pdf

25/25

Tank 7ou

Elaine ChenEmail4 e.chenAro1alhaskoning.com

3e!4 www.osclimited.com

Ocean Shipping Consultants is

part of Royal Haskoning