Internal migration flows in Internal migration flows in Northern Ireland: exploring Northern Ireland: exploring

patterns and motivations in a patterns and motivations in a divided societydivided society

Gemma CatneyGemma CatneyPhD Research StudentPhD Research Student

Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR)Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR)School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology (GAP)School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology (GAP)

Queen’s University, BelfastQueen’s University, Belfast

UPTAP Session 2, RGS-IBG Annual Conference, 2006UPTAP Session 2, RGS-IBG Annual Conference, 2006

Residential Segregation in Northern Residential Segregation in Northern IrelandIreland

Religious residential segregation in NI – Religious residential segregation in NI – media and academic research media and academic research

New academic research pointing towards New academic research pointing towards residential segregation as either residential segregation as either decreasing or staying the samedecreasing or staying the same

However, large geographic variations, with However, large geographic variations, with some increases in segregation in some increases in segregation in particular areas, and persistence in othersparticular areas, and persistence in others

But why? But why?

Internal migration in Northern Internal migration in Northern IrelandIreland

In situIn situ growth and/or migration growth and/or migration Simpson (2004), in Simpson (2004), in Urban StudiesUrban Studies Migration – reinforcement, erosion, Migration – reinforcement, erosion,

creation of residential segregation?creation of residential segregation? How far is community background How far is community background

important in migration decision-making?important in migration decision-making? Under-explored and little understoodUnder-explored and little understood

Presentation outlinePresentation outline The geography of migration in NIThe geography of migration in NI

Migration ratesMigration rates Mobility differentialsMobility differentials

Internal migration and residential segregationInternal migration and residential segregation Migration rates by community backgroundMigration rates by community background Global regression: demographic composition and Global regression: demographic composition and

migrationmigration Local regression (GWR)Local regression (GWR) Before and after migrationBefore and after migration

Segregation indices, etc.Segregation indices, etc.

Further work: current and futureFurther work: current and future ConclusionsConclusions

Methodology in briefMethodology in brief

QUANTITATIVE

Migration rates and differentials

Geographically weighted regression (GWR)

SI modelling

DATA SOURCES

Census of pop. of NI (2001)

Census grid square data (1971-2001)

Residents (movers and non-movers)

Key informants (community reps, property developers, etc.)

QUALITATIVE

Semi-structured interviews

Focus groups

Cognitive Mapping

In- and out-migrationIn- and out-migration

Inflow rate (per 1000 pop.)

Outflow rate (per 1000 pop.)

Variable Most mobile Least mobileAge 20-24 (17.77%) 65-74 (2.56%)

Gender Female (7.89%) Male (7.29%)

Community background Protestant (7.50%) Catholic (7.49%)

Religion Catholic (7.19%) Protestant (7.11%)

Marital status Separated (but still legally married) (13.71%)

Widowed (4.37%)

Economically active Economically active (8.56%) Economically inactive (6.50%)

Economic activity Full-time student (17.29%) Self-employed (5.49%)

Economic inactivity Student (11.00%) Retired (2.59%)

Qualifications Higher level qualifications (10.86%)

No qualifications (4.79%)

Limiting long-term illness (LLTI)

No LLTI (8.03%) LLTI (5.92%)

Family status Not in a family (12.16%) In a couple family (5.78%)

Ethnic group Other ethnic group (11.57%) White (7.57%)

Resident type Living in a communal establishment (24.78%)

Living in a household (7.32%)

% Migrants by age and gender (within NI, 2001)

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+

Age group (years)

% M

igra

nts

% Migrants (Total)

% Migrants (Male)

% Migrants (Female)

Internal migration and residential Internal migration and residential segregation: solving the problemsegregation: solving the problem

Count (area) data

Global regression – demographic

composition andmigration

Geographically Weighted

Regression

Before and after migration

Segregation indices and conc. profiles

% Differences (CB)

Migration rates by community backgroundMigration rates by community background

Catholic inflow over total inflow

Catholic outflow over total outflow

Catholic inflow as a proportion of total inflow against % Catholic residential composition (Internal, 2001)

y = 0.9414x + 2.7567

R2 = 0.9355

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

% Catholic residents

Cat

ho

lic in

-mig

rati

on

as

% t

ota

l in

-mig

rati

on

Protestant inflow as a proportion of total inflow against % Protestant residential composition (Internal, 2001)

y = 0.9269x + 2.4695

R2 = 0.9289

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

% Protestant residents

Pro

test

ant

in-m

igra

tio

n a

s %

to

tal i

n-m

igra

tio

n

Cmig_dec

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total

10 99 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 128

20 6 46 18 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 76

30 1 11 23 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 51

40 0 1 9 19 15 5 0 0 0 0 49

50 0 0 3 11 22 8 4 0 0 0 48

60 0 0 1 5 11 14 8 1 0 0 40

70 0 0 0 1 3 12 18 5 1 0 40

80 0 0 0 0 2 4 12 8 5 0 31

90 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 16 17 4 40

Cres_dec

100 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 24 53 79

Total 106 87 54 54 58 45 43 31 47 57 582

Pmig_dec

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total

10 62 18 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82

20 6 21 10 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 39

30 0 6 9 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 35

40 0 2 10 19 10 2 0 0 0 0 43

50 0 0 1 12 11 17 3 0 0 0 44

60 0 0 0 1 14 19 10 4 0 0 48

70 0 0 0 1 4 22 19 7 1 0 54

80 0 0 0 0 0 7 17 31 7 0 62

90 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 39 57 6 105

Pres_dec

100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 34 31 70

Total 68 47 32 49 43 68 53 86 99 37 582

(b) Deciles of % Protestant residents against % Protestant outflow

(a) Deciles of % Catholic residents against % Catholic outflow

Cmig_dec

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total

10 99 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 128

20 6 46 18 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 76

30 1 11 23 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 51

40 0 1 9 19 15 5 0 0 0 0 49

50 0 0 3 11 22 8 4 0 0 0 48

60 0 0 1 5 11 14 8 1 0 0 40

70 0 0 0 1 3 12 18 5 1 0 40

80 0 0 0 0 2 4 12 8 5 0 31

90 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 16 17 4 40

Cres_dec

100 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 24 53 79

Total 106 87 54 54 58 45 43 31 47 57 582

Pmig_dec

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total

10 62 18 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82

20 6 21 10 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 39

30 0 6 9 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 35

40 0 2 10 19 10 2 0 0 0 0 43

50 0 0 1 12 11 17 3 0 0 0 44

60 0 0 0 1 14 19 10 4 0 0 48

70 0 0 0 1 4 22 19 7 1 0 54

80 0 0 0 0 0 7 17 31 7 0 62

90 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 39 57 6 105

Pres_dec

100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 34 31 70

Total 68 47 32 49 43 68 53 86 99 37 582

What is GWR?What is GWR?

Normal regression assumes that a relationship Normal regression assumes that a relationship between variables holds at each locationbetween variables holds at each location

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) accounts for spatial variations in the accounts for spatial variations in the relationships between variablesrelationships between variables

GWR produces regression coefficients at (the GWR produces regression coefficients at (the centroid of) each selected location, facilitating an centroid of) each selected location, facilitating an assessment of how the relationship between a assessment of how the relationship between a set of variables changes from place to placeset of variables changes from place to place

GWR and migrationGWR and migration

Local variations in the regression between Local variations in the regression between demographic composition and in- and out-demographic composition and in- and out-migration not accounted for with global migration not accounted for with global regressionregression

Useful in understanding these relationships, and Useful in understanding these relationships, and in predicting future changein predicting future change

% residents by community background and % residents by community background and inflow / outflow by community background as inflow / outflow by community background as proportion of all inflow / outflowproportion of all inflow / outflow

GWR: Catholic residents against Catholic inflowGWR: Catholic residents against Catholic inflow

GWR predictions (independent = 50%)

Before and after migrationBefore and after migration Examine population after migration (2001) Examine population after migration (2001)

and before migration (2000)and before migration (2000) Potential issues:Potential issues:

In situIn situ growth: data on births and deaths growth: data on births and deaths Internal migrants only: no GB (or further) data Internal migrants only: no GB (or further) data

on community backgroundon community background Possibilities:Possibilities: Proportions (% CB)Proportions (% CB) Segregation indicesSegregation indices Concentration profilesConcentration profiles

Segregation indices: the role of Segregation indices: the role of migrationmigration

D S S* xP*y xP*x xP*y 2 xP*x 2

Before 0.601168 0.271488 0.329680 0.246422 0.753578 0.299242 0.700758

After 0.601059 0.271437 0.329621 0.246518 0.753482 0.299360 0.700640

Change -0.000109 -0.000051 -0.000059 0.000095 -0.000096 0.000118 -0.000118

Segregation indices: the role of Segregation indices: the role of migrationmigration

Overall indication of minimal change, with Overall indication of minimal change, with decreasing segregation and greater mixingdecreasing segregation and greater mixing

But, these are global measuresBut, these are global measures Can use, for example, % Catholic and Can use, for example, % Catholic and

Protestant before and after migrationProtestant before and after migration Do show considerable local variations – Do show considerable local variations –

some areas increasing, some decreasingsome areas increasing, some decreasing

Other work: current and futureOther work: current and future

Origin-destination (flow) dataOrigin-destination (flow) data SI modellingSI modelling Logistic regressionLogistic regression Principal Components AnalysisPrincipal Components Analysis EtcEtc

Qualitative researchQualitative research Interviews, focus groups and cognitive Interviews, focus groups and cognitive

mappingmapping Selected case study areas (Belfast)Selected case study areas (Belfast)

Transect: South BelfastTransect: South Belfast

Summary and conclusionsSummary and conclusions

Some insight into the geography of migration in Some insight into the geography of migration in NINI

Methods for exploring the relationship between Methods for exploring the relationship between internal migration and residential segregationinternal migration and residential segregation

Migration has a role to play in the creation, Migration has a role to play in the creation, reinforcement and erosion of segregationreinforcement and erosion of segregation

Positive relationship between demographic Positive relationship between demographic composition and migrationcomposition and migration

Local variations in the relationshipsLocal variations in the relationships Variable from place to place, but broadly Variable from place to place, but broadly

suggests a decline in segregation due (at least suggests a decline in segregation due (at least in part) to migrationin part) to migration

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

UPTAPUPTAP My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his

comments and advicecomments and advice NISRA, for the provision of Census dataNISRA, for the provision of Census data Department for Employment and Learning Department for Employment and Learning

(DEL), for funding(DEL), for funding Contested Cities, Urban Universities Contested Cities, Urban Universities

(CU2) research team and funding body (CU2) research team and funding body (European Programme Peace 2)(European Programme Peace 2)