GEM’S HAZARD PRODUCTS: OUTCOMES AND APPLICATIONS Paolo Bazzurro University Institute for Superior Studies (IUSS) Pavia, Italy
Transcript
GEM’S HAZARD PRODUCTS: OUTCOMES AND APPLICATIONS
Paolo BazzurroUniversity Institute for Superior Studies (IUSS)Pavia, Italy
GEM Hazard: The Main Objectives• Global DatasetsFive international projects to create databases and guidelines establishing global standards for
1. historical earthquake archive and catalogue
2. instrumental seismicity catalogue
3. active fault database
4. global strain
5. ground motion prediction equation selection
• Regional ModelsRegional initiatives and collaborations to compile a database of up-to-date seismic hazard models across different regions of the globe
• Open ToolsOpenQuake: free and open-source, state-of-the-art software for the calculation of seismic hazard and risk
Global Historical Earthquake Archive (GHEA)• Collection of 239 studies
(papers, reports and volumes) with results of investigations of one or more historical earthquakes
• Includes macroseismic data points – including some descriptions of data sources
• 3,175 records of earthquakes
www.emidius.eu/GEH/
Global Datasets: The Global Earthquake History
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The overall goal in the compilation of the archive was to identify, collect and critically organise the best and most recent information available for earthquakes falling within the time-window 1000-1903 and with magnitude equal to or higher than 7 (preferably Mw, but in practice in any magnitude scale). A lower magnitude limit was allowed for intraplate areas, typically 6.5 Mw.
Literature sources and macroseismic data points can be retrieved for each event in the archive
Global Historical Earthquake Archive (GHEA)
www.emidius.eu/GEH/
Global Historical Earthquake Catalogue (GHEC)• Events occurred in 1000 AD –
1903 AD with M ≥ 7.0 (but M≥ 6.5 for intraplate events)
• 825 historical events selected from 87 sources
• Contains date, location and magnitude (plus uncertainties)
• Derived from macroseismic data (Bakun & Wentworth, 1997; Gasperini et al., 2010)
Global Datasets: The Global Earthquake History
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Uses The archive can form an important basis for the development of PSHA models, particularly considering potential links between active faults and historical events, which can help to constrain the earthquake recurrence. Furthermore, individual events can be utilised in earthquake loss scenarios, identifying the potential losses if such an event were to occur today.
Global Historical Earthquake catalogue (1000–1903) (Albini et al., 2014)
Global Datasets: The ISC-GEM Instrumental Catalogue
• Global catalogue of instrumentally recorded earthquakes for 1900 to 2009
• More than 18,000 events relocated using new ISC location algorithm (Bondár & Storchak, 2011)
• Homogeneous magnitude estimation in MW
Storchak et al. (2013, 2014)
Presenter
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The ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009) features: events with magnitude >= 7.5, occured between 1900 and 1917 events with magnitude >= 6.25, occured between 1918 and 1959 events with magnitude >= 5.5, occurred between 1960 and 2009 The catalogue is composed of earthquakes with homogeneous locations and magnitude estimates, determined using the same tools and techniques to the extent possible. The magnitude determination and location procedures applied represent a synthesis of state-of-the art methods. Each event has a Mw value, the magnitude type currently used in the engineering seismology community, where possible based on seismic moment (mainly earthquakes in the period 1976-2009). In other cases new empirical relations have been used to obtain proxy values of moment magnitude. In the early instrumental era (1918-1959) the catalogue contains about 1900 earthquakes with magnitude instrumentally determined, against – for example – about 900 events currently available in the Abe catalogue.
The ISC-GEM Catalogue on the OpenQuake-Platform
ISC-GEM beginning to form the basis for updates to catalogues for the development of new PSHA models
• The Global Strain Rate Model version 2.1 enhances the version 1.0 model (Kreemer et al., 2003)
• Updated plate boundary model
• Higher resolution (0.25˚ ×0.2˚)
• Potential new avenues of seismic hazard research constraining activity rates from deformation
Global Datasets: Global Strain Rate Model
V 1.0: ≈ 5,200 GPS velocities
V 2.1: > 18,500 GPS velocities
The GEM Global Strain Rate Model (v2.1)
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Uses (talking points): The previous global strain rate model has become a cornerstone data set for the understanding and interpretation of global geodynamics. Refining the model, and increasing the resolution, will help to provide constraints on deformation across fault zones, which can inform the modelling of earthquake recurrence in seismic hazard analysis.
• Composite database of active faults covering: Western United States/Alaska, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Oceanic Transforms
• Harmonised representation of active faults and folds
Global Datasets: The Faulted Earth Database
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The Faulted Earth Database is a composite database of fault information from different areas of the globe, including New Zealand, Australia, US (lower 48 + Alaska) and Japan. Uses: The database provides information that is critical for the definition of the active fault geometry and earthquake recurrence in the regions for which data is available. Work is now underway to expand the coverage of the database with contributions from local and regional scale fault mapping and archiving initiatives.
Global Datasets: The Faulted Earth Database
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Data from the database can be viewed and downloaded via the OpenQuake platform
Expanding the Database: The Faulted Earth Tool
Ongoing activities to increase coverage as part of regional initiatives
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The Faulted Earth Tool is a Web-GIS tool for crowd-sourcing fault data, allowing users to contribute faults from their region of interest into the global active faults database. Uses: The main use of this tool is to facilitate contributions for the geological community to the Faulted Earth database. In doing so, however, this database forms a preliminary standard for defining active fault data.
GEM Global Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs)
1. Defining a consistent strategy to
model ground motion
2. Pre-selection of GMPEs
3. Selection of a Global Set of
GMPEs
4. Accounting for Near-Fault
Effects in GMPEs5. Summary of databases of
recorded waveforms
6. Specifications for a database of
soil conditions
GMPEs: Guidelines establishing state-
of-practice for selection and usage in PSHA
GEM Database of Regional & National Models
Already available
Presenter
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Talking Points: All of the results are those from the OpenQuake implementation. In every case we have studied the model and the implementation to achieve agreement with the original models as far as possible. In some cases the agreement is nearly perfect but in others there can be differences due to the use of GMPEs not yet supported by OpenQuake and/or differences in characterisation of the seismogenic source within the software used for each model. The main value of this database is in the fact that the models are harmonised into the OpenQuake format. Therefore greater consistency is achieved in the definitions of the models, the source models in particular are now all standardised into the same representation and can be fully reproduced in OpenQuake by any user wishing to download them. Current models shown United States – NSHMP 2008 – Available on 1st release of the platform (end 2014) Alaska (2007) – (As above) Canada – Geological Survey of Canada (2005 – updated 2008) – (As above) South America – USGS (2010) – (As above) Southeast Asia – USGS (2007) – (As above) National Seismic Hazard Map of Australia - Geoscience Australia, 2012) – (As above)
GEM Database of Regional & National Models
SHARE
EMME
EMCA
NIED
ResisII/Geoter/Garcia et al. (2003)
Expected end of 2014
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Additional models not shown but expected on the 1st platform release at the end of 2014 Europe – SHARE Middle-East - EMME Central Asia – EMCA Japan – (NIED, 2012) Central America – (Benito et al. 2012 from RESIS II project) Lesser Antilles (GEOTER-2002) Cuba – Garcia et al. (2003)
GEM Database of Regional & National Models
SHARE
EMME
EMCA
NIED
SARA – Expected 2015
ResisII/Geoter/Garcia et al. (2003)
Presenter
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New regional PSHA model under construction as part of the South American Regional Activity (SARA) project – expected in 2015
OpenQuake-engine: OverviewFree and open-source software for the calculation of seismic hazard
Four core workflows:i) Classical PSHAii) Disaggregationiii) Event-Based
PSHAiv) Scenario
Extensive support of logic-tree analysis of epistemic uncertainty
Seismic Hazard Models on the OpenQuake-Platform
Models on the OpenQuakeplatform provide:• Hazard maps• Hazard curves• Uniform hazard spectra• Source model and
activity rates• Disaggregation (for
selected sites)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Talking Points: Emphasis placed on being an open platform where users can download both the models and the hazard outputs of many existing PSHA models from over the globe Comprehensive set of products (maps, curves, UHS, disaggregation, event sets etc.) By moving
Seismic Hazard Models on the OpenQuake-Platform
GEM Hazard Products: Applications and End-Users
• Government and Public Sector
– Hazard maps/inputs for building codes
– Scenario events
GEM Hazard Products: Applications and End-Users
• Government and Public Sector
– Hazard maps/inputs for building codes
– Scenario events
• Insurance Sector
– Stochastic Event Sets
– Assessment of probabilities of a catastrophe bond trigger
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Paolo, we have already used OpenQuake in a Catastrophe Bond model (Bosphoros project) in which the bond would be triggered based on a formula taking as input the number of strong motion stations in Istanbul Metropolitan Area recording motions in excess of 0.1 g. We used OpenQuake to assess the probability of the bond triggering. I think this could be a reasonable example to demonstrate hazard applications in the insurance sector, if you agree?
GEM Hazard Products: Applications and End-Users
• Government and Public Sector
– Hazard maps/inputs for building codes
– Scenario events
• Insurance Sector
– Stochastic Event Sets
– Assessment of probabilities of a catastrophe bond trigger
If possible, I think it would be helpful to emphasis the extensive testing processes that are used in the development of OpenQuake that essentially means it comes packaged with a transparent quality assurance process that has already made it appealing for application for use in critical and nuclear facilities.
For more information visit
www.globalquakemodel.org/
Thank you!
Thank you!
Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalearthquakemodel.org
