General Meeting #6
October 11, 2011
Agenda
• Question of the Day• Market Overview• Dissecting GDP• Team Stock Pitch• Membership Voting• Announcements
Question of the Day
Market Overview
World Market Overview
U.S. Market Overview
S&P 500 Snapshot
Market Overview
U.S. Markets
• EU Bailout Fund Saga– Slovakia lawmakers reject plan
• One of Europe’s poorest nations– 17 countries in Eurozone
• 16 have passed• Slovakia is the last holdout• Need unanimous vote• Slovakia Prime Minister Iveta
Radicova urged Parliament to pass measures
• Senate GOP fillabusters Obama’s jobs bill– Absolutely no surprise here
Market News
Earnings Front
• Alcoa kicks off earnings season by disappointing Wall Street
• Important Upcoming Earnings Reports:
– October 13: JPMorgan Chase
• Concensus EPS Est. $0.96
– October 17: Citigroup
• Concensus Est. $0.33
– October 17: Wells Fargo
• Concensus Est. $0.72
Earnings Season
Investment Philosophies
Philosophical Importance
• Know what you’re looking for
• How to look for investments
• Consistency of strategy
– Continuous improvement
– Understanding of risks/rewards
Framework for Investing
Broad Views
• Technical Philosophies– Price movement
• Understanding pricing trends, finding when history “repeats”– Supply and Demand Reactions
• Market actions tend to discount everything (at some point)
• Fundamental Philosophies– Financial analysis
• Margins, ratios, earnings, leverage, etc.– Strategic understanding
• Industry, competitive advantage, growth opportunities
Technical Philosophies
• Price Movements– Strength, direction, momentum and duration of trends in a
stock’s price– Primarily a mathematical/statistical analysis– Examples: MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.
• Supply and Demand Reactions– Finding when the market is acting irrationally based on recent
price level changes– Example: point and figure charting
Fundamental Philosophies
• Value– Purchasing fundamentally underprice companies– Typical signs of value stocks include:
• Below Book Value• Low P/E, P/B, P/S ratios• Stable earnings, consistent earnings yield
• Growth– Purchasing rapidly ascending companies– Typical signs of growth stocks include:
• High sales growth rates• Possibly low/no-profit (with expectations for a rapid flip)• High overhead for growth (expected to diminish)
Two Primary Groups
Fundamental Philosophies
• Benjamin Graham and David Dodd– Securities Analysis and the Intelligent Investor– “Mr. Market”– Price level vs. Intrinsic Value
• Walter Schloss– 15.3% annualized returns for 50 years (vs. 10% w/ S&P 500)– Identify securities that sell for considerably less than their value
to a private owner• Less interested in underlying operations• Variation of Price level vs. Intrinsic Value
Value Investors
Fundamental Philosophies
• Phillip Fisher– Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits– Stock’s worth considered in terms of potential growth rather than
price trends and absolute value
Growth Investors
Fundamental Philosophies
• David Einhorn– 1996 to present: 21% annual returns– Fundamental tenants:
• How competitive is the business• How does the company perform relative to competitors• Are management’s interests aligned with shareholders?• Concentrated Portfolio
Other Successes
Fundamental Philosophies
• Warren Buffet– “I’m 15% Fisher and 85% Graham”– 20.5% annualized returns since 1965– Keys:
• Margin of Safety• High quality, still growing businesses• Management quality• Competitive advantage
Other Successes
Fundamental Philosophies
The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will
grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the
durability of that advantage. The products or services that have wide, sustainable moats around them are
the ones that deliver rewards to investors.-Warren Buffet
Other Successes
Stock Pitch
Membership Voting
Is this stock investment grade?
Membership Dues
• Active Members must pay dues– $40 per semester or $60 per academic year
• Payment Methods:– Online via website: http://usiteam.org/• Navigate to Membership and select “Pay Dues”
– In person by cash, check, or credit card (see Mark)
Stock Pitch Competition
• CORRECTED DATE: Saturday, October 22nd
• 10:30a-6:00p, SAC Legislative Assembly• Awards:– 1st Place Overall– 2nd Place Overall– Best Underclassmen Team
• Registration commences online Tonight!