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Shrinking Local Cities in Japan
Making Communities sustainable under depopulation and rapid aging
The North-Central Area of Kyoto Prefecture in Anguish over Depopulation
COSTSept. 2013Prof. & Dr. Hiroshi YahagiRyukoku University
1) General Outlook of Depopulation and Aging in Japan
2) Challenges of Local Cities Facing to Depopulation and Aging
One Example : Ayabe City in the Northern Area of Kyoto-prefecture
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General Outlook of Depopulation and Aging in Japan
Japan is the most advanced in developed countries
1) Depopulation 2) Aging (older than 65 years old
128milions
87millions
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Challenges of Demographic Change in Japan
2010 2060
Population 128,057 86,737 (1000) ▲32.3%
Japan is to lose 1/3 of its population in the next 50 years
Aging 23.0% 39.9% 2 per 5 △16.9㌽
(over 65) Working Age 63.8% 50.9%(15-64)
2035: Aging 33.4% 2046: less than 100 m.国勢調査+社会保障・人口問題研究所(National Institute of Population and Social Security Research NIPSSR)
Challenges of Demographic Change in Japan
1)The Causes of depopulation are due to the low birthrate. The low birthrate is due to ① with later marriage
② fewer children
the total fertility rate(TFR)
2010 2024 2060
1.39 1.35 1.33
2)aging is going ahead due to ① the low birthrate② longevity
2010 2060 the average m. 79.64 86.39 longevity (years old) f. 84.19 90.93
( NIPSSR)
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Living longer is OK!
Problems are the shape ofdemographic structure
From Tree to Kite <From Ministry of H. L. & W.>Japanese Population Pyramids
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Who will support whom?
Population Age 65 and over----------------------------Population Age 20-64
<From Ministry of H. L. & W.>
With this changing structure of population,
Japan has to face up to many difficulties economically and socially
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First of all ⇒ infuluences on National EconomyWith the decreasing working population, the growth
of national economy is expected to become lower.
・ GDP is decided with Population × Productivity
・ To Keep individual income stable, we have to develop New Urban Industries of high-productivity.
ex. Life-science, energy-saving technology, high-speed-transportation, welfare-related technology・・・
Secondly
Soaring Social welfare expenditure
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1)The total social security expenditure has more than doubled over the past 20 years.
2)That is expected to increase further as the population ages.<From Ministry of H. L. & W.>
Today:• Social security is based on big amounts of
“public budget” and social insurance payment.• The public expenditure for social security is
becoming a huge part of the national budget.• The budget money comes from tax and bonds.
Actually the amount of bonds is getting bigger year by year.
Not sustainable any more !• We have to stop passing the burden on to future
generations.
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Thirdly
Marginalization of local cities becomes a dominant landscape in the countryside of Japan
Especially in remote communities from the city center of local city
marginalization of city: that cannot sustain a certain degree of quality of urban facilities — education, medical services, retail, and cultural functions
Today more than 50 % of cities with the population of 100,000 or over is decreasing population in Japan.
The smaller the city is, the more marginalized it is!
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IntroducingSmall Challenges and their Small
Achievements by a Small city
A Case Introduction: Ayabe City:a typical local city in the northern area of Kyoto Prefecture
Tango AreaMiyazu
Maizuru
FukuchiyamaAyabe
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Tango Area1) The climate of Tango is very severe especially in winter
season with heavy snow.2) Tango Area is situated at mountain areas where the
space for agriculture is limited. 3) The spatial developments (ex. highways, high-speed
railways and industrial developments) have been done along the Pacific Ocean for the last half century, ignoring the areas along the Japan Sea. Tango is situated in the so-called backyard of Japan.
4) Besides agriculture, forestry and fishy, its main economy was a textile industry. But the textile industry had gone out as the result of global competition with developing countries.Today no private investment is not expected there so far.
82
72Fukuchiyama福知山市
92
80 Maizuru舞鶴市
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29 Ayabe綾部市21.5
15.7 Miyazu宮津市
0
50
100
2010 2035
(1000)
(年)
Depopulation of 4 cities in Tango
▲23.4%
▲23.4%
Depopulation in next 25
years
▲23.1
▲27.0%
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Aging(%)2035
39.0
35.934.932.031.4
Tango Area
Ayabe was historically a Textile Industry City with the population of over 50,000.
But Ayabe has lost its industrial base completely ⇒ a typical shrinking city
2010Ayabe 35,836 population
33.2% aging
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Recently City of Ayabe introduced 2 policies to keep communities
sustainable under rapid depopulation and aging
Ⅰ.
1. Policies to increase permanent populationa. Introducing vacant houses to would-be residentsb. Assisting for new farmersc. Introducing job-opportunities, for instance in the section of
social works2. Financial support for new comers who like to have a
house within the city.a. ¥ 3milions loan at low rate for renovating a vacant houseb. Renting vacant houses as public houses at low rent after
the city rents them from the owners
Increasing: 98 families & 230 persons from 2007 to 2012 !
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Ⅱ.
Marginalized communities ⇒ definition: over 50% of residents is 65 years old and over.
56 marginalized settlements among 196 settlements in Ayabe
Objects of the ordinance:1) Promoting settlement of new comers 2) Promoting exchange with people living in cities ⇒ Networking with cities in metropolitan areas3) Discovering natural resources and nurturing them
as local community business ⇒ That is, Discovering local GIVENs and Developing them
5 settlements at the marginalized areas aredesignated as “Settlements at Riverheads” by the ordinance until 2013
What has been goingat the 5 marginalized settlements after the ordinance was set ?
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What has been going?
1) Promoting settlement of new comers a. subsidy for new settlement: ¥50,000 per
month for the first yearb. supplying low-rent-public houses for new
settlement
What has been going?
2) Promoting exchange with people living in citiesa. ownership of vegetable-producing fields by city-living
people b. home-delivery of products to city-living people with
¥5000 as annual member’s fee c. having festivals and sports events inviting city-living
people
With these relations, people living in cities come to the remote settlements occasionally, and find out the charm of living in a country-side.
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ownership of vegetable-producing fields by city-living people
Festivals
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What has been going?
3) Discovering natural resources and nurturing them as local community business a. making & selling cookie made from horse chestnuts b. opening the MARKET along the main street on a mountain pass to the next city and selling local products
c. The local people started a small factory of manufacturing food products by using local resources (rice, nuts, vegetables, fruits and mushrooms) by themselves with the small subsidy from the city of Ayabe、creating small job opportunities.
cookie made from horse chestnuts
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With the Local Ordinance 9 families and 25 persons have come in for the last 5 years
A small change, but meaningful change for the remote & isolated communities
Turning year
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2012
Combination of 3 factorsTo Succeed in Keeping
Communities SustainableActivating
SpantaneousMovement
by local people33.3%
MakingNetworks
with outsideworld
33.3%
Utilizing &Nurturing
Local Resouces33.3%
Å Small Lesson Combination of 3 factors