GEO GLAM G20 Meeting Geneva, 22-23 September 2011

WMO Organisation, 7 Rue de la Paix

 

GEO AG 07 03 – Preparatory G20 GEOGLAM Meeting 1

JRC MARS activities on Crop Monitoring

Present and Future prospects 

Olivier LEO, Acting Head of Unit MARS

http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

New technologies in agriculture?

Information Needs and Challenges

EU has a unique experience of science and innovation in support to Agriculture governance

Thanks to the conjunction, at the end of the 80’s, of • Strong information requirements• Need to define pan- european methods and standards

(progressively extended from 12 to 27 Member states)• Availability of news technologies: Remote sensing, ITC and

Geomatics ( GIS, GPS…)

… and to a close collaboration between EC Services

(AGRI –JRC) on the “MARS” Program initiated in 1988

• EC manage Common market Organisation(s) and need timely yield forecast to coordinate EU MS and propose appropriate decisions (intervention funds)

• Global Agriculture markets entered in a status of high volatility since Mid 2006

• Overall tension due to low stocks increasing demand and possible climatic

risks in the main cereals belts • Global markets very nervous a few month before main harvests • Crucial need of independent reliable short term forecast

Information Needs and Challenges

Graph courtesy from DG AGRI

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Low stocks

High stocks

Russian embargo

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USDA decreases estimates

Raising concerns for Russia / Black Sea drought

Russia declares embargo

UKR declares export quota

FR- G20 Agriculture and price Volatility

Summit of G 20 Ministers of Agriculture - Paris, 22-23 June 2011

•A detailed Action Plan, incl. 2 initiatives to increase market transparency - Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) by FAO + WB , IFPRI and all- Global Agriculture Monitoring (GAM) by GEO Community of practice

• The EC, as Member of the G20 signed the declaration and the Action plan on Agriculture price volatility

• DG AGRI strongly supports the 2 Initiatives on market transparency • Improve EU timely information on stocks for AMIS

• AGRI front line Sharing MARS and GLOBCAST results with other

stakeholders, as a contribution to GEO –GLAM• JRC H04

Position included in the draft EC Report to EU Council and Parliament (August 2011)

FR- G20 Agriculture and price Volatility

Statistical infrastructure

Remote Sensing infrastructure

Meteorological infrastructure

Crop model infrastructure

Crop yield forecasts

MARS crop monitoring system

► Qualitative Info

Campaign monitoringin SPACE and TIME

►Quantitative Info

Link to biophysical parameters

Re

lated d

ata

bases

General design

General Data /information Chain of Crop Monitoring

Data providersEO Land ClimateAtm circ. models+ Ground Meteo

Ex: SPOT , ESA

NASA, ECMWFOMM

*

Operational

Pre & post-processing

EO & crop models

Ex: MARS –OPG2 BIOPARUSGS , etc

*

Expert analysis & reporting

Crop Monitoring

Yield forecast

Early Warning

Ex : JRC-MARS, FEWSNET, USDA FAS

CCAS, IKI, etc

*

Response or Policy Analysis

(Agriculture, Trade, Food Security)

Ex : DG AGRI,

EEAS-ECHOUSAID , USDA

FAO, WFP FSNAU

*

Research and system

development

ECHODG

TRADE

General framework MARS crop monitoring

MARS Crop monitoring system

Global data infrastructure

FOOD SECAGRI4CAST

GEO Community of

Practice

Research Services Support

DG. AGRI

EEASDG ENTR

GMES

MARS OP (1-2-3)ALTERRA VITO MeteoConsult,

GISAT

NRT Acquisition and processing

Visualization

tools / DB

Stakeholders and PartnersUN FAO, WFP

Collaborative Agreements

with

US, BR, Arg,

China, KZ, Mo.; UA, CRA,

RCMRD,

SOW-VU NL

USDA,

FEWSNET

30 staff

10-15 staff

1.5 Mio €/ Y

EFSA

ESTAT DG. DEVCO

Use of MARS Bulletins by DG AGRI

23 Monitoring or crop forecast bulletins (2011) Discussed in Outlook Committees meetings

Results are integrated in DG AGRI CROPS NEWSLETTER with Market price and global trade analysis

MARS GLOBCAST Project

General objectives a feasibility Study to cover the globe

• Monitor the impact of weather in the main grain producing areas

• Produce short-term forecasts

4 Zones of the world main crops of interest:Wheat, barley, rice,maize, rape seed, soybean, sugar cane

GLOBCAST is a feasibility study currently conducted for DG AGRICULTURE

Feasibility Study GLOBCAST

Study Content (Phase -2011)

•Conceptualize the system (DB, models, tools) • Run pre-operational tests

•Assess the possible implementation within an enlarged operational MARS system

• Develop of a roadmap for a future implementation of GLOBCAST, in the new context of G20 GAM

GLOBCAST is a feasibility study currently conducted for DG AGRICULTURE

GLOBCAST main elements of a model and data driven Decision Support System

Method based on RS + derived parameters

Regression againstNUTS2 Official yield figures

Cumulated values along different parts of the growing seasonat NUTS 2 (region) level within Arable Land

Sharing MARS Data / Model Infrastructure

MARS global information infrastructure , Co funded by DG AGRI and JRCPartly outsourced ( MARS OP ALTERRA VITO Consortium)

Combines Multi sources (Meteo, EO, ECMWF models)…

with specific crop development & statistical models ....

MARS Viewer provides online access and query to CGMS databases and models outputs

The system is already since 2011 regularly used by 6 FAO GIEWS Analysts

... and efficient user (analyst) interface

Sharing MARS Data / Model Infrastructure

Linking information to decision

The best information has no value without an appropriate link with decision– Need of legitimate information – And consensus making process In Case of crisis,

The IPC (Integrated FS Phase Classification) is a interesting example in the sense

– it is implemented by a global technical partnership including 7 key organizations: UN (FAO , WFP), Donors (USAID-FewsNet, EC-JRC) NGOs (CARE, Oxfam, Save the Children).

– IPC provides a logical framework to classify and map the severity – extension of food insecurity

situations and provide information for decision support.

Analysis is based on an evidence- based, well documented, consensus building approach among technical food security experts …

Possible Way Forwards - Future Milestones

As far EU partnership is concerned (27 MS incl 4+1 G 20)

• MARS CGMS expert meeting 21-22 November – Add on event with EU Experts ?

Pilot and road map for EU pasture and forage quantitative Forecast (March 2012)

Final report of GLOBCAST 1 Discussion on senarii and implementation road map (May June 2012)

MARS Conference 20 years of Bulletins (2nd Half 2012)

Bring together High EU Policy level AGRI DEVCO and EU MS

Possible Way Forwards - Future Milestones

As far Globe is concerned

Review of use of MARS data system by FAO GIEWS and WFP(12 November TBC)

3rd CRAM Conference JRC-FEWSNET FAO(Nairobi Sept 2011)Side GEO JECAM and Training

How will we react together in the next crisis…

ie a major climatic event affecting one of our key Cereal Belts?

Inputs to the Rapid Response FORUM ?

Thanks for your attention !