eMarketer CEO Geoff Ramsey brings the stats to the Forbes CMO Summit in Palm Beach, Florida.
1. The Future of Media Geoffrey Ramsey CEO, Co-Founder
2. The Future of Media Geoffrey Ramsey CEO, Co-Founder
Jupiter Conference, circa 1999 90% of what we say today will be wrong tomorrow. --Rishad Tobaccowala, Denuo 48.62% of what we say today will be wrong tomorrow.
4. $13 trillion lost in American wealth
5. Glass half full, or half empty???
6. Glass half full, or half empty??? Media Spending Trends??? The only function of economic forecasting --John Kenneth Galbraith The real world wont change for the better until 2010 when greed has overcome fear yet again. --Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO, WPP
7. Media Spending Growth in the U.S. -14.6% Aug 2009 Study of 128 Marketers: 77% said they were cutting ad media spending 75% of US ad and media professionals expect to shift more than a quarter of their ad budgets away from traditional outlets over the next 5 years. (Jan 09) -4.4% -10.6% July 2009 ZenithOptimedia 3.1% -12.3% Feb. 2009 UBS 4.2% -9.9% Feb. 2009 Oppenheimer & Co. 4.2% -15.4% Oct. 2009 Morgan Stanley -4.8% -13.3% March 2009 Myers Publishing -0.4% -15.5% July 2009 MAGNA -0.5% -14.6% Oct. 2009 eMarketer 1.0% -14.0% Jan. 2009 Cowen & Co. 5.0% -7.0% Jan. 2009 Citi Investment -2.6% -16.3% Oct. 2009 Carat Insight -0.3% -13.5% June 2009 Barclays Capital 2010 2009 Date
8. TELEVISION: BMO Capital... -8.1% TNS (1 st Half).. -10.0% VSS.. -10.1% Jack Myers.. -10.4% UBS.. -11.1% Barclays... -13.7% Oppenheimer.. -13.8% MAGNA -14.4% Traditional Media Growth (?) in 2009 RADIO: VSS..... -11.7% Wachovia -13.0% Zenith.. -14.4% Barclays.. -15.1% Oppenheimer. -16.0% eMarketer. -17.2% Jack Myers. -18.4% MAGNA.. -21.0% NEWSPAPERS: Zenith -15.0% eMarketer . -15.8% UBS............... -17.6% Oppenheimer -18.3% VSS -18.7% Barclays -21.0% Jack Myers -22.5% MAGNA. -29.5% Are we in in a cycle???
9. US online ad spending growth for 2009 Source: eMarketer, Oct 2009 Cowen (May 09) - 6.0% - 5.0% UBS (Feb 09) eMarketer (Oct 09) -2.9% - 3.7% Morgan (Oct 09) ??? Search...... +4.0% Banners. -0.5% +5.9% growth in 2010 +6.6% growth in 2011 --eMarketer
10. 55% of global marketing execs plan to cut spending on traditional media in order to fund increased online efforts (June 2008) 59% of U.S. marketers plan to increase budget for interactive by pulling funds out of traditional media (March 2009) 70% shifting media funds from traditional to digital media (June 2009) By 2012, online will reach $29 billion, or 17% of total media spending --eMarketer
11. US online ad spending in 2012 $28.8 ??? Mathematician John Von Neumann: Theres no sense in being precise when you dont even know what youre talking about.
12. 50% 50% Were heading into a 50-50 world, where half of spending goes to digital and interactive campaigns --Laura Desmond, Starcom MediaVest Over time, all ad money will go through a digital platform. --Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft In the long run, were all dead. --John Maynard Keynes, economist
13. 7 Implications for the Future of Media Rishad of Denuo: If parts of the company need to be blown up, you might as well get the bomb thrower to come from somewhere you know and trust.
14. #1. Even post-recession, total media dollars will continue to shrink Opposing forces
Accountability mandate will strengthen demand for lower cost, more efficient media
Media fragmentation will force marketers to target their messages to ever smaller, niche audiences
Digital technology creates new opportunities for self-marketing , e.g., via Web sites, online videos, Twitter, etc.
Inevitable shift towards earned media , as opposed to paid media
15. #2. Media will not only implode, it will also explode, becoming more:
Distributed same content available in multiple locations, formats and media channels
Personalized media will be tailored to reflect what youve watched/read/experienced/shared
Contextualized when and where you get your information will dictate its content and format, and will, in turn, shape how you interact with and share it
16. #3. Proportionately, advertising will carry less and less of the load for media content Explosion of Media Advertising Pay for content Advertising simply cannot support all the media that outs there. --Wenda Millard Harris, (while at MSL) People reading news for free on the Web, thats got to change. --Rupert Murdoch Were in a transition of what will be a proliferation of models, many of which will include getting more compensation from readers and users. --Thomas Curley, CEO, Associated Press
17. All media owners need to ask the VALUE question... what can we create that people will be willing to pay for???
18. FREE Ad-supported
19. Social media moms Rishad of Denuo: We are hungry for information and value those who do a superior job of editing the ocean of material there is. We have a massive lost of trust.
20. #4. Brands will struggle to engender trust In 2007, only 17% said they trusted advertisers By late 2008, only 10% rated advertising practitioners as honest Word Association Describe Advertising : Source: Nielsen Online, 2008 FALSE
21. Consumer TRUST Levels for Media Types -- Nielsen Online global survey, April 2009 -- 0% Opt-in email 55% Magazine ads 62% Editorial content 70% 100% Recos from people I know 92% Ads before movies 53% Mobile text ads 18% Search ads 37% TV & Radio ads 61% Banner ads 24% Brand sites 69% Source: Nielsen Online, April, 2009; n = 25,000 Newspaper ads 66% 8%? New Neurosis: Why 8% of Americans Dont Trust Their Family and Friends Keller Fay Group: Consumers consider word-of-mouth as 2X as trustworthy as traditional media when choosing products
22. How can you create trust for your brand?
Figure out ways to earn and leverage the trust of communities that are relevant to your product or brand
Make your product and customer service as good as they can be (no more hiding!)
Emphasize listening over loud-speaking
I view listening as an important analytic. Listening and other analytics can drive your strategy at a macro-level... They can either reinforce your strategy or correct it. --Michael Mendenhall, CMO, Hewlett-Packard Only 16% of U.S. marketing chiefs say their firms regularly monitor social forums be transparent Transparency = Trust What about social media?
23. #5. Social sites will never attract a large share of ad dollars 17% of Internet Time --Nielsen, 2009
24. $$$$ today?
25. 1 b illion dollars Social ad spending will actually decline 3 % this year % of Marketers Planning to Boost Spending on Social Media in 09: Unisfair (Sept 09) 75% Reardon Smith (Jun 09). 69% Millward Brown (Apr 09). 64% StrongMail (July 09) 58% Forrester (2009) 57% MarketingSherpa (Nov 08).. 48% Datran Media* (Jan 09).. 44% ANA (May 2009). 26% *Worldwide Forrester: While only 41% of marketers are placing ads on social networks, 64% say theyre building their own social media presence By 2011, ad spending will still be under $1.5 billion (eMarketer) Think less about buying social media, and more about how you can earn and own it!
26. Size of Audience Depth of Brand Interaction Widgets Video Sites Heavy Engagement # 6. Marketers will trade off reach to get a deeper engagement Apps Niche Social Sites [In the future, online media buying will be] about the re-aggregation of a fragmented audience thats actually watching different things. -