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Geoff Ramsey at the Forbes CMO Summit

Date post:01-Nov-2014
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eMarketer CEO Geoff Ramsey brings the stats to the Forbes CMO Summit in Palm Beach, Florida.
  • 1. The Future of Media Geoffrey Ramsey CEO, Co-Founder
  • 2. The Future of Media Geoffrey Ramsey CEO, Co-Founder
  • 3.
    • Key Measurements
    • for Campaigns:
    • Hits
    • Click-throughs
    Jupiter Conference, circa 1999 90% of what we say today will be wrong tomorrow. --Rishad Tobaccowala, Denuo 48.62% of what we say today will be wrong tomorrow.
  • 4. $13 trillion lost in American wealth
  • 5. Glass half full, or half empty???
  • 6. Glass half full, or half empty??? Media Spending Trends??? The only function of economic forecasting --John Kenneth Galbraith The real world wont change for the better until 2010 when greed has overcome fear yet again. --Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO, WPP
  • 7. Media Spending Growth in the U.S. -14.6% Aug 2009 Study of 128 Marketers: 77% said they were cutting ad media spending 75% of US ad and media professionals expect to shift more than a quarter of their ad budgets away from traditional outlets over the next 5 years. (Jan 09) -4.4% -10.6% July 2009 ZenithOptimedia 3.1% -12.3% Feb. 2009 UBS 4.2% -9.9% Feb. 2009 Oppenheimer & Co. 4.2% -15.4% Oct. 2009 Morgan Stanley -4.8% -13.3% March 2009 Myers Publishing -0.4% -15.5% July 2009 MAGNA -0.5% -14.6% Oct. 2009 eMarketer 1.0% -14.0% Jan. 2009 Cowen & Co. 5.0% -7.0% Jan. 2009 Citi Investment -2.6% -16.3% Oct. 2009 Carat Insight -0.3% -13.5% June 2009 Barclays Capital 2010 2009 Date
  • 8. TELEVISION: BMO Capital... -8.1% TNS (1 st Half).. -10.0% VSS.. -10.1% Jack Myers.. -10.4% UBS.. -11.1% Barclays... -13.7% Oppenheimer.. -13.8% MAGNA -14.4% Traditional Media Growth (?) in 2009 RADIO: VSS..... -11.7% Wachovia -13.0% Zenith.. -14.4% Barclays.. -15.1% Oppenheimer. -16.0% eMarketer. -17.2% Jack Myers. -18.4% MAGNA.. -21.0% NEWSPAPERS: Zenith -15.0% eMarketer . -15.8% UBS............... -17.6% Oppenheimer -18.3% VSS -18.7% Barclays -21.0% Jack Myers -22.5% MAGNA. -29.5% Are we in in a cycle???
  • 9. US online ad spending growth for 2009 Source: eMarketer, Oct 2009 Cowen (May 09) - 6.0% - 5.0% UBS (Feb 09) eMarketer (Oct 09) -2.9% - 3.7% Morgan (Oct 09) ??? Search...... +4.0% Banners. -0.5% +5.9% growth in 2010 +6.6% growth in 2011 --eMarketer
  • 10. 55% of global marketing execs plan to cut spending on traditional media in order to fund increased online efforts (June 2008) 59% of U.S. marketers plan to increase budget for interactive by pulling funds out of traditional media (March 2009) 70% shifting media funds from traditional to digital media (June 2009) By 2012, online will reach $29 billion, or 17% of total media spending --eMarketer
  • 11. US online ad spending in 2012 $28.8 ??? Mathematician John Von Neumann: Theres no sense in being precise when you dont even know what youre talking about.
  • 12. 50% 50% Were heading into a 50-50 world, where half of spending goes to digital and interactive campaigns --Laura Desmond, Starcom MediaVest Over time, all ad money will go through a digital platform. --Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft In the long run, were all dead. --John Maynard Keynes, economist
  • 13. 7 Implications for the Future of Media Rishad of Denuo: If parts of the company need to be blown up, you might as well get the bomb thrower to come from somewhere you know and trust.
  • 14. #1. Even post-recession, total media dollars will continue to shrink Opposing forces
    • Accountability mandate will strengthen demand for lower cost, more efficient media
    • Media fragmentation will force marketers to target their messages to ever smaller, niche audiences
    • Digital technology creates new opportunities for self-marketing , e.g., via Web sites, online videos, Twitter, etc.
    • Inevitable shift towards earned media , as opposed to paid media
  • 15. #2. Media will not only implode, it will also explode, becoming more:
    • Distributed same content available in multiple locations, formats and media channels
    • Personalized media will be tailored to reflect what youve watched/read/experienced/shared
    • Contextualized when and where you get your information will dictate its content and format, and will, in turn, shape how you interact with and share it
  • 16. #3. Proportionately, advertising will carry less and less of the load for media content Explosion of Media Advertising Pay for content Advertising simply cannot support all the media that outs there. --Wenda Millard Harris, (while at MSL) People reading news for free on the Web, thats got to change. --Rupert Murdoch Were in a transition of what will be a proliferation of models, many of which will include getting more compensation from readers and users. --Thomas Curley, CEO, Associated Press
  • 17. All media owners need to ask the VALUE question... what can we create that people will be willing to pay for???
  • 18. FREE Ad-supported
  • 19. Social media moms Rishad of Denuo: We are hungry for information and value those who do a superior job of editing the ocean of material there is. We have a massive lost of trust.
  • 20. #4. Brands will struggle to engender trust In 2007, only 17% said they trusted advertisers By late 2008, only 10% rated advertising practitioners as honest Word Association Describe Advertising : Source: Nielsen Online, 2008 FALSE
  • 21. Consumer TRUST Levels for Media Types -- Nielsen Online global survey, April 2009 -- 0% Opt-in email 55% Magazine ads 62% Editorial content 70% 100% Recos from people I know 92% Ads before movies 53% Mobile text ads 18% Search ads 37% TV & Radio ads 61% Banner ads 24% Brand sites 69% Source: Nielsen Online, April, 2009; n = 25,000 Newspaper ads 66% 8%? New Neurosis: Why 8% of Americans Dont Trust Their Family and Friends Keller Fay Group: Consumers consider word-of-mouth as 2X as trustworthy as traditional media when choosing products
  • 22. How can you create trust for your brand?
    • Figure out ways to earn and leverage the trust of communities that are relevant to your product or brand
    • Make your product and customer service as good as they can be (no more hiding!)
    • Emphasize listening over loud-speaking
    I view listening as an important analytic. Listening and other analytics can drive your strategy at a macro-level... They can either reinforce your strategy or correct it. --Michael Mendenhall, CMO, Hewlett-Packard Only 16% of U.S. marketing chiefs say their firms regularly monitor social forums be transparent Transparency = Trust What about social media?
  • 23. #5. Social sites will never attract a large share of ad dollars 17% of Internet Time --Nielsen, 2009
  • 24. $$$$ today?
  • 25. 1 b illion dollars Social ad spending will actually decline 3 % this year % of Marketers Planning to Boost Spending on Social Media in 09: Unisfair (Sept 09) 75% Reardon Smith (Jun 09). 69% Millward Brown (Apr 09). 64% StrongMail (July 09) 58% Forrester (2009) 57% MarketingSherpa (Nov 08).. 48% Datran Media* (Jan 09).. 44% ANA (May 2009). 26% *Worldwide Forrester: While only 41% of marketers are placing ads on social networks, 64% say theyre building their own social media presence By 2011, ad spending will still be under $1.5 billion (eMarketer) Think less about buying social media, and more about how you can earn and own it!
  • 26. Size of Audience Depth of Brand Interaction Widgets Video Sites Heavy Engagement # 6. Marketers will trade off reach to get a deeper engagement Apps Niche Social Sites [In the future, online media buying will be] about the re-aggregation of a fragmented audience thats actually watching different things. -
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