UNIVERSITY OF THESSALYDEPARTMENT OF PLANING AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

LABORATORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL ANALYSES

GEOGRAPHY OF GEOGRAPHY OF FERTILITY IN GREECE: FERTILITY IN GREECE: COHORT ANALYSIS COHORT ANALYSIS USING CENSUS DATAUSING CENSUS DATA

SOFIANOPOULOU KAKIASOFIANOPOULOU KAKIA

LDSALDSA

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

Main Objectives

• Are there spatial differences of the cohort fertility in Greece?

• Is there convergence or divergence at municipality level between the fertility of the old and the new cohorts ?

• Are there different growth rates of cohort fertility evolution among the spatial entities?

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

Data

Greek Census 2001

Distribution of women (Greek nationality) present at the time of Census by number of born alive children

Indices

Completed fertility CFRa , CFRb, a=cohort 1935-1939 and b=cohort 1950-1954

Variation Index: (CFRb-CFRa)*100/CFRa,

% of women without children

% of women having more than 5 children (live births)

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census dataMethodology

Choice 2 groups of generations (1935-1939 and 1950-1954)

Exclude spatial entities having less than 20 women and Δ >= +-20%, where Δ= (CFRt+1-CFRt)*100/CFRt, t=cohort

Classification and mapping of CFRa, CFRb and Variation Index

Statistical analysis, based on relevant indicators, in order to see if there is convergence or divergence of completed fertility between “old” and “new cohorts” at municipality level

Cross-tab analysis, (CFRa by Variation Index), in order to detect the growth rate of convergence or divergence among the spatial entities

Cluster analysis (K-means, 3 variables) and mapping

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census dataThe completed fertility in Greece is falling through the generations. The results in the level of the country reveal that there is a fall of the indices by 8,2% between 1925 and 1954.

Completed fertility based on census data

1,80

1,85

1,90

1,95

2,00

2,05

2,10

2,15

1925_1929 1930_1934 1935_1939 1940_1944 1945_1949 1950_1954

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

Based on natural movement data, the longitudinal analysis gives similar results for the completed fertility, with slightly lower values

Completed fertility based on natural movement data

1,80

1,85

1,90

1,95

2,00

2,05

2,10

1932-1936 1937-1941 1942-1946 1947-1951 1952-1957

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

• Classification around the national mean

• Lowest values: Region of Athens, Central-East Greece, Thessalonica, Corfu and Lesvos

• Higher values: Dodecanese, South Crete, West Peloponnesus, Central-West Greece, Central Macedonia and Thrace

• Generally the majority of the municipalities are around or above the population replacement limit (2,2-2,3 children/woman)

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

• Classification around the national mean

• Fall of the upper level, by one child per woman

• The group of the lowest fertility units has ameliorate its values. At the opposite there is a decline of the completed fertility on the higher groups

• Again the majority of the municipalities are around or above the population replacement limit (2,1 children/woman)

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

• Classification around the national mean

• In the majority of municipalities the completed fertility is falling

• In the Central-East Greece and Peloponnesus as well as East Crete the CFR is increasing

• Maximum decrease in the areas where the CFR was too high at the start point

• First sign of convergence

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

• the Conv.Index 1935-1939 > Conv.Index 1950-1954 (=> convergence between the two groups of cohorts)

Statistical Analysis of Completed Fertility

Statistical indices

Cohort 1935-1939

Cohort 1950-1954

Mean (X) 2,1204 2,0915

Standard Deviation 0,35425 0,25319

Variation 17% 12%

1st quartile (Q1) 1,8913 1,9391

2nd quartile (Q2) 2,0663 2,0722

3rd quartile (Q3) 2,2921 2,2157

Minimum 1,36 1,16

Maximum 4,79 3,61

Convergence Index (X-Q2)*100/(Q3-Q1) 13% 7%

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

Repartition of cohorts 1935-1939 Completed Fertility groups by the Variation Index groups ( %)

Variation Index

CFR 1935-

1939

=<

-15

,0

-10

,0_-1

4,9

-7,0

_-9,9

-5,0

_-6,9

-3,0

_-4,9

2,9

_-2,9

3,0

-4,9

5,.0

-6,9

7,0

-9,9

10

,0-1

4,9

>=

15

,0

Tota

l

Nu

mb

er o

f cases

=<1,69   4,6 1,5 3,0 1,525,

8 10,6 3,0 10,613,

625,

8 100 66

1,70-1,89   0,6 0,6 1,9 4,432,

7 8,2 10,716,

4 17,0 7,6 100 159

1,90-1,99     3,4 2,5 5,030,

3 10,9 11,8 17,7 10,9 7,6 100 119

2,00-2,19 1,2 6,5 5,7 11,0 11,437,

8 6,9 7,7 6,5 2,9 2,4 100 246

2,20-2,39 10,6 9,915,

913,

913,

919,

9 7,3 2,0 4,6 2,0   100 151

2,40-2,59 18,618,

6 14,3 12,9 10,0 12,9 2,9 2,9 4,3 1,4 1,4 100 70

2,60-2,79 32,429,

4 2,9 2,9 17,7 8,8 2,9     2,9   100 34

2,80-4,79 52,623,

7 2,6 13,2 2,6 5,3           100 38

• The municipalities having high CFR in the cohort 1935-1939 mark decrease with faster rates. On the other hand those having low CFR in the cohort 1935-1939 mark increase with slow rates

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

• Cluster analysis with 3 variables:

• Completed Fertility• % of women without

children• % of women having more

than 5 live born children• The majority of spatial

entities are in the medium fertility level, with CFR faintly above the population replacement limit (2,2-2,3 children/woman) and low percentages (<10%) of women without children, or having more than 5 children (<5%)

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

• Cluster analysis with 3 variables

• Completed Fertility• % of women without

children• % of women having more

than 5 live born children• The majority of spatial

entities are in the medium fertility level, with CFR in the population replacement limit (2,1 children/woman) and low % of women without children (<8%), or having more than 5 children (<2%)

• The number of municipalities with maximum fertility levels declined and there is a slight increase of those with relatively high or high fertility levels

Geography of fertility in Greece: cohort analysis using census data

Conclusions

The decline of fertility in Greece is a fact. The lifetime fertility is falling through cohorts at the country level

There is a convergence between the fertility levels of the municipalities (Total = 1033 units, 883 for our analysis)

The pattern of fertility in Greece was a mosaic of spatial entities with different levels of fertilityat the start point

But due to the recent tendencies, we tend to a relative fertility spatial homogenization

The rate of convergence is different for the spatial entities and depends from the level of fertility (low, medium, high) at the start point