Evening RoundupDecember 16, 2019

U.S. Manufacturing PMI @ 20 :15 IST

A Daily Report on Bullion, Base Metals & Energy

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

34/659-P, Civil Line Road,

Padivattom, Kochi – 682024

Day So Far

• As this week’s trading session commences, investors sentiments boosted owingto preliminary trade deal agreed between US and China, which considered as asignificant move by both countries to their 17-month old trade dispute. Globalequities surged, while commodities in the MCX platform seen on a firmer noteomitting some commodities. Meanwhile, Dollar index continued weakness.

• Bullion in global platform seen steady on dollar weakness along with cautiousstance taken by investors as they seek more clarity on “Phase one” trade dealbetween US and China. Gold and silver in London platform gained higher, whilesilver seen steady above $17 mark an ounce.

• Crude oil prices seen steady on easing trade issues between top twoeconomies. Meanwhile, soft dollar and OPEC decision of deeper cuts continuedto support the prices to a large extend. Both WTI and Brent ruled steady above$60/barrel and $65/barrel respectively. At the same time, Natural gas prices ininternational platform were little changed after previous seen corrective move.

• Base metals in London Metal Exchange edged up on demand hopes after USand China reached a truce after marathon trade talks. Majority of base metalsseen steady except Nickel, which shed moderately after Indonesian Nickelexports surged significantly ahead of export restriction next month.Meanwhile, China’s official data showed that aluminum output rose inNovember.

MAJOR COMMODITIES IN MCX /NCDEX INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Last updated at 16:00 IST

GAINERS / LOSERS (MCX) INDICES UPDATES

LME STOCKRATIOS

Commodity Last %Chg Open High LowPrevious

Day CloseVol

Gold37914 0.37 37725 37920 37725 37773 5161

Silver 44480 0.8 44132 44535 44108 44126 8320

Crude Oil 4259 0.42 4236 4272 4230 4241 53543

Natural Gas 163.4 0.37 161.4 164 161.1 162.8 20137

Copper 442.5 0.57 441.15 443 440.9 440 4580

Nickel 1027.5 -0.49 1030 1030 1023 1032.6 5289

Lead 152.25 0 152.1 152.35 151.9 152.25 744

Zinc182 0.22 182.05 182.3 181.65 181.6 2603

Aluminium 133.5 0.41 132.95 133.5 132.85 132.95 453

Commodity Rate % Chg

Gold ($/oz)1477.766 0.15

Silver (c/oz) 17.0379 0.63

Nymex Crude ($/bbl) 60.02 -0.08

Nymex NG ($/mmbtu) 2.296 0

LME Copper ($/T)6175 0.52

LME Nickel ($/T) 13820 -0.18

LME Lead ($/T) 1955.5 1.43

LME Zinc ($/T)2272.5 0.55

LME Aluminium ($/T) 1775 0.2

Indices Rate % Chg

Dow Jones Fut 28202.0 0.12

CAC** 5972.8 0.91

DAX** 13363.3 0.61

Shanghai* 2915.7 -0.3

MSCI Asia Pacific index 169.1 1.595

Baltic Dry index 1460 -4.45

Dollar index 97.06 -0.12

Ratio5 Days Monthly 90 Days

Daily High Low High Low High Low

Gold Silver ratio85.25 86.36 85.25 86.78 83.25 87.61 78.82

Gold Crude ratio141.49 144.22 141.49 152.54 141.49 162.95 134.29

Lead Zinc ratio0.84 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.80 0.88 0.80

Steel Nickel ratio36.05 36.50 35.63 42.99 34.05 44.73 34.05

Lead Aluminium ratio1.14 1.16 1.14 1.19 1.13 1.27 1.09

85.25 grams of Silver is required to buy one gram of Gold

141.49 liters of Crude is required to buy one gram of Gold

0.84 kg of Zinc is required to buy one Kg of Lead

36.05 kg of Steel is required to buy one Kg of Nickel

1.14 kg of Aluminium is required to buy one Kg of Lead

Net

change

Warrant

change

Tonnage

ratio

Copper-4325 4525 30.02

Aluminium27400 17675 6.70

Nickel930 0 16.52

Zinc-800 350 23.38

Lead-50 -175 4.35

ECONOMIC DATA

Time Country Importance Event Forecast Previous

Monday, December 16, 2019

7:30 China High Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) 5.00% 4.70%

7:30 China High Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Nov) 5.60%

7:30 China High Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 7.60% 7.20%

7:30 China High Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Nov) 8.05%

7:30 China High Chinese Unemployment Rate 5.10%

12:00 India High WPI Inflation (YoY) (Nov) 0.74% 0.16%

12:00 India High WPI Manufacturing Inflation (YoY) (Nov) -0.84%

14:30 Euro Moderate Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 47.3 46.9

14:30 Euro Moderate Services PMI (Dec) 52 51.9

20:15 US High Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 52.5 52.6

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

15:30 Euro Moderate Trade Balance (Oct) 17.0B 18.7B

19:00 US Moderate Building Permits (MoM) (Nov) 5.00%

19:00 US Moderate Building Permits (Nov) 1.400M 1.461M

19:00 US Moderate Housing Starts (Nov) 1.344M 1.314M

19:00 US Moderate Housing Starts (MoM) (Nov) 3.80%

19:45 US Moderate Capacity Utilization Rate (Nov) 77.20% 76.70%

19:45 US High Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) -1.13%

19:45 US High Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.80% -0.80%

19:45 US Moderate Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.70% -0.60%

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

3:00 US High API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 1.410M

15:30 Euro Moderate CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.00% 0.70%

15:30 Euro Moderate CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.30% 0.10%

21:00 US V High EIA Crude Oil Inventories 0.822M

21:00 US V High EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 4.118M

21:00 US V High EIA Gasoline Inventories 5.405M

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Tentative India High RBI MPC Meeting Minutes

19:00 US Moderate Continuing Jobless Claims 1,678K 1,667K

19:00 US Moderate Current Account (Q3) -122.8B -128.2B

19:00 US Moderate Initial Jobless Claims 213K 252K

20:30 US Moderate Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) 1.40% 1.90%

20:30 US Moderate Existing Home Sales (Nov) 5.45M 5.46M

21:00 US High Natural Gas Storage -73B

Friday, December 20, 2019

7:00 China Moderate PBoC Loan Prime Rate 4.15%

14:30 Euro Moderate Current Account (Oct) 28.2B

14:30 Euro Moderate Current Account n.s.a. (Oct) 35.8B

19:00 US High GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 2.10% 2.00%

19:00 US High Personal Income (MoM) (Nov) 0.30% 0.00%

19:00 US High Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 2.90%

20:30 US High Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 99.2 99.2

20:30 US High Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov) 0.40% 0.30%

20:30 Euro High Consumer Confidence (Dec) -7 -7.2

BULLION

GOLD M

MCX Jan

Intra Day

Near Term

Technical Levels

R3 39140/39320

R2 38480/38540/38840

R1 38250

Turnaround 38070

S1 37700/37450/37270

S2 37100/36930

S3 36800

Technical Commentary

Decisive trades above 38070 could lift prices higher. Failed to mark trades

above the same could push price lower to 37700 followed Bollinger lower

band level of 37450.

Technical Levels

R3 46700/47200

R2 44650/46200

R1 44740/45300

Turnaround 44050

S1 43700/43380

S2 43070/42800

S3 42350/42000

Technical Commentary

Customary buying sentiment likely to uphold in the coming session towards

the upside objective of 44740 followed by falling trend line resistance of

45300. On the contrary, direct fall below 44050 may dent our buying

expectation.

SILVER M

MCX Feb

Intra Day

Near Term

NATURAL GAS

MCX Dec

Intra Day

Near Term

CRUDEOIL

MCX Dec

Intra Day

Near Term

ENERGY

Technical Levels

R3 4530

R2 4475

R1 4355/4410

Turnaround 4305

S1 4215/4185

S2 4135/4095/4063

S3 3983/3950

Technical Commentary

Promising trades above the Bollinger upper band level of 4305 could entice

fresh buying for intraday. Inability to crack above the level of 4305 may grab

prices lower to 4215 followed by 4185.

Technical Levels

R3 179.70/183.40/186

R2 178.50/180.70

R1 165.30/168.50/171

Turnaround 159

S1 158/156.20

S2 153.20/152/144

S3 138

Technical Commentary

Major weakness could establish only below 159. Else could expect price

recovery initially towards 165.30 then to internal trend line resistance of

168.50 region.

NICKEL

MCX Dec

Intra Day

Near Term

COPPER

MCX Dec

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 456

R2 452.70

R1 449

Turnaround 445-445.50

S1 441/437.60/433.70

S2 428/425.50/423

S3 420/418/415.20

Technical Commentary

Determined and sustainable trades above 445-445.50 region could lift prices

higher. Else could anticipate a corrective move 50-Day EMA level of 437.60.

Technical Levels

R3 1091

R2 1062/1072

R1 1049

Turnaround 1037

S1 1020/2011/973

S2 960/941/928

S3 917/905

Technical Commentary

As long as prices remain below the hindrance of 1037 could expect weakness

towards 1020 followed by the SMA Level of 1011. On the flipside, direct rise

above 1037 may lift prices higher.

Zinc M

MCX Dec

Intra Day

Near Term

Lead M

MCX Dec

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 190.70/191.50

R2 187.60/189.30

R1 183.40/185.60

Turnaround 181

S1 180.20

S2 179

S3 178.30/176.70

Technical Levels

R3 160.40

R2 157.10/157.90

R1 154.40/155.20/156

Turnaround 153.10

S1 151.40/150

S2 149.40/148.90/147

S3 145.70

Technical Commentary

Intraday weakness could establish only below the horizontal trend line support

of 181 region. Which if remain undisturbed could expect a short covering move

towards SMA level of 183.40 region.

Technical Commentary

Weakness may persist towards the Bollinger lower band level of 151.40

followed by 150.30. But reclaiming trades above 153.10 could push prices

higher.

Alumini

MCX Dec

Intra Day

Near Term

BASE METALS

Technical Levels

R3 139

R2 136.90/137.80

R1 134.90/136

Turnaround 134.20

S1 132/130.50

S2 128.60/127.70

S3 125.50

Technical Commentary

Rising trades above the falling trend line resistance of 134.20 could lift prices

higher. Failed to withstand above 134.20 may drag prices lower to Bollinger

middle band level of 132.

Buying

sentiment/

Bullish

Selling

sentiment/

Bearish

Neutral/

sideways

S1/S2/S3 -Support level – Price points where buying pressure thought to be strong enough to counter selling

pressure.

R1/R2/R3 -Resistance level – – Price points where selling pressure thought to be strong enough to counter

buying pressure.

GENERAL DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:

CERTIFICATION

I,Krishna prasad N.B an employee of Geojit Financial Services Limited (GFSL), authors of this report, hereby

certify that all the views expressed in this research report (report) reflect our personal views about any or all

of the subject issuer or securities/ commodities.

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rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.

Descriptions of any Commodity or Commodities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this

report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any commodity

or other financial instruments. GFSL has not taken any steps to ensure that the commodity/(ies) referred to in

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futures.

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