Geological and Hydraulic Safety along Motorways and Railways
EVENT AND RISK SCENARIOS
Pasquale VERSACE
PROGETTO PON01_01503SISTEMI INTEGRATI PER IL MONITORAGGIO, L’EARLY WARNING E LA MITIGAZIONE DEL RISCHIO IDROGEOLOGICO LUNGO LE GRANDI VIE DI COMUNICAZIONE. DISCUTIAMO I RISULTATI
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Challenges and topic for discussions
■ Communication and dissemination■ Some regions do nothing in case of yellow level, neither send forward to
municipalities■ Others complain of too many yellow and do not like to have 2 separate
warning (flood and landslides)■ Some municipalities wish to receive directly warnings and not through
regions■ What to do in the different levels? Authorities start to act only when is red
level (not everybody understand that in yellow and orange level damages can occur).
■ Lack of emergency plans and risk maps (identifying critical areas)
■ Communication (experts and population)■ Avoid too many false alarm, wrong level: yellow orange■ Too many leaders/politicians between experts and population/local
authorities (developing countries vs developed countries)
Event scenarios
Risk scenarios
Levels of criticality
Levels of alertINTE
RVEN
TIO
N M
OD
EL
Event scenariosPr
oper
ties
of
expe
cted
phe
nom
ena Landslide velocity
Landslide surfaceLandslide scarpLandslide volumeThicknessMagnitudeInvolved materialOccurrence probability
Geo
met
ric
inde
x
LANDSLIDE VELOCITY (VEL)
CLASS TYPE DESCRIPTION
1 Slow (VEL1) < 5x10-6m/s (13 m/month); classes 1,2,3 from Cruden & Varnes (1996)
2 Moderate (VEL2)
> 5x10-6m/s (13 m/month); class 4 from Cruden & Varnes (1996)
3 Rapid (VEL3) > 5x10-4m/s (1,8 m/hour); class 5 from Cruden & Varnes (1996)
4 Very rapid (VEL4)
> 5x10-2m/s (3 m/min); class 6 from Cruden & Varnes (1996)
5 Extremely rapid (VEL5) > 5 m/s; class 7 from Cruden & Varnes (1996)
LANDSLIDE SURFACE (SUR)CLASS TYPE DESCRIPTION
1 Very small (SUR1) < 100 m2
2 Small (SUR2) < 1.000 m2
3 Medium (SUR3) < 10.000 m2
4 Large (SUR4) < 100.000 m2
5 Very large (SUR5) > 100.000 m2
LANDSLIDE SCARP (SCA)CLASS TYPE DESCRIPTION
1 Very small (SCA1) < 10 m2 Small (SCA2) < 100 m3 Medium (SCA3) < 500 m4 Large (SCA4) < 1.000 m5 Very large (SCA5) > 1.000 m
LANDSLIDE VOLUME (VOL)CLASS TYPE DESCRIPTION
1 Extremely small (VOL1) < 500 m3
2 Very small (VOL2) < 5.000 m3
3 Small (VOL3) < 50.000 m3
4 Medium (VOL4) < 500.000 m3
5 Large (VOL5) > 500.000 m3
THICKNESS (THI)CLASS TYPE DESCRIPTION
1 Very shallow (THI1) ≤ 0,5 m2 Shallow (THI2) ≤ 2 m3 Medium (THI3) ≤ 10 m4 Deep (THI4) ≤ 30 m 5 Very deep (THI5) > 30 m
GEOMETRIC INDEX (GEI)
CLASS TYPE DESCRIPTION
1 Very small (GEI1) All SUR, SCA, VOL, THI are equal to 1
2 Small (GEI2) At least a value is equal to 2 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI
3 Medium (GEI3)
At least a value is equal to 3 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI
4 Large (GEI4) At least a value is equal to 4 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI
5 Very large (GEI5)
At least a value is equal to 5 among SUR, SCA, VOL, THI
MAGNITUDE (MAG)CLASS TYPE
1 Low (MAG1)2 Moderate (MAG2)3 High (MAG3)
VEL1 VEL2 VEL3 VEL4 VEL5GEI1 MAG1 MAG1 MAG1 MAG2 MAG2GEI2 MAG1 MAG1 MAG2 MAG2 MAG3GEI3 MAG1 MAG2 MAG2 MAG3 MAG3GEI4 MAG2 MAG2 MAG3 MAG3 MAG3GEI5 MAG2 MAG3 MAG3 MAG3 MAG3
f(GEI, VEL)
INVOLVED MATERIAL (IM)
TYPEMud
Debris Earth Rock
Mixture of components
OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY (PRO)
CLASS TYPE DESCRIPTION1 low T > 100 years2 moderate T< 100 years3 high T < 20 years4 Very high T< 5 years5 =1 T< 1 year
MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 1
Perimeter of landslide and propagation zone
MAG1 MAG2 MAG3
MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 2N
orm
aliz
ed v
alue
MudDebris Earth Mixture of components
GEIVEL
MAGPRO
MAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 3
Mud
Debris Earth Mixture of components
Nor
mal
ized
val
ue
PROMAG
VELGEI
SURVOL
THISCA
Mud
Debris Earth Mixture of components
Nor
mal
ized
val
ueMAP OF EVENT SCENARIOS – level 3
Risk scenarios
Mud
Debris
Earth
Rock
Mixture of components
VOL
SUP
VEL
PRO
MA
G
Length of scarp (SCA)
Nor
mal
ized
val
ue
0
1
Risk scenarios
Risk scenarios
A. Mud and/or debris movements which could induce a friction reduction and facilitate slips
Risk scenarios
B. Road subsidence induced by landslides that could drag or drop vehicles
Risk scenarios
C. Falls of significant volumes and/or boulders that could crush or cover vehicles and constitute an obstacle for others vehicles
Risk scenarios
A
B
C
a. hydraulic infrastructures and/or barriers
b. only emergency lane c. lane d. fast lane e. fast lane of the opposite carriageway f. lane of the opposite carriageway
18 risk scenarios
Risk scenarios
Up
Down
Aa Ab Ac
AfAeAd
Risk scenarios
Up
Down
CdBdAd
Risk scenarios
Up
Down
Risk scenarios
Risk scenarios
Up
Down
Bb Bc BdBa
Up
Down
Cb Cc Cd Ca Ce Cf
Risk scenarios
Bd Be Cf
Up
Down
Risk scenarios
Ca Cb Cd
Up
Down
Cc
Risk scenarios
Levels of criticality and alert
SENSORSMODEL OUTPUTS
4 STATES:
state 0 (S0) = no variation
state 1 (S1) = small variation
state 2 (S2) = moderate variation
state 3 (S3) = high variation
INDICATORS
Meteorological and hydrological models for
vaste areas (for example FLaIR model)
IND
SEN
2 STATES:
state 0 (S0) = no variation or not significant
state 1 (S1) = significant variation
CAED
ExampleSUSHI Model
0:00-0:20
0:40-1:00
1:20-1:40
2:00-2:20
2:40-3:00
3:20-3:40
4:00-4:20
4:40-5:00
5:20-5:400
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Observed rainfall heights
t (h)
P (m
m)
FS (t = t0)
Example
FS t = t0 t = t1 t = t2
Scenario 1 1,26 1,54 1,67
Scenario 2 1,26 1,11 1,05
Scenario 3 1,26 1,33 1,42
… 1,26 1,48 1,15
Scenario N 1,26 1,42 1,13
SUSHI Model
FS t = t0 t = t1 t = t2
Scenario 1 1,26 1,54 1,67
Scenario 2 1,26 1,11 1,05
Scenario 3 1,26 1,33 1,42
… 1,26 1,48 1,15
Scenario N 1,26 1,42 1,13
t = t0 t = t1 t = t2
B S0 S0 S0
G S1 S0 S0
A S2 S1 S0
R S3 S2 S1
t = t0 t = t1 t = t2
Scenario 1 S1 S0 S0
Scenario 2 S1 S1 S1
Scenario 3 S1 S0 S0
… S1 S0 S0
Scenario N S1 S0 S0
t = t0 t = t1 t = t2
S1 S1 S1
4 STATES:
State 0 (S0) = no variation
state 1 (S1) = small variation
state 2 (S2) = moderate variation
state 3 (S3) = high variation
Example
ExampleRADARTYPE Description Class 1 Class 2 Class 3
A Number of Strips 1 strip (A1)
2-3 strips (A2)
> 3 strips (A3)
B Signal Intensity, indicating the part of strip involved by a movement
level 1 (B1)
level 2 (B2)
C DM resolution < DM(C1)
< 2DM (C2)
A1 A2 A3B1 A1’ A2’ A3’B2 A2’ A3’ A3’
C1 C2A1’ S1 S2A2’ S2 S3A3’ S3 S3
ExampleSCATTEROMETER
TYPE Description Class 1 Class 2 Class 3A Number of Strips 1 strip 2 strips ≥ 3 stripsB DM resolution < DM < 2DM < 3DM
A1 A2 A3B1 S1 S2 S3B2 S2 S3 S3B3 S3 S3 S3
Levels of criticality and alert
SENSORSMODEL OUTPUTS
4 STATES:
state 0 (S0) = no variation
state 1 (S1) = small variation
state 2 (S2) = moderate variation
state 3 (S3) = high variation
INDICATORS
Meteorological and hydrological models for
vaste areas (for example FLaIR model)
IND
SEN
2 STATES:
state 0 (S0) = no variation or not significant
state 1 (S1) = significant variation
CRITICALITY LEVELS
ordinary criticality (level 1)
moderate criticality (level 2)
severe criticality (level 3)
Levels of criticality and alert
CAED
State of sensors and/or models CAED decisions
All INDs and SENs are S0 0 - no decisionAt least one IND is S1 and all SENs are S0
1 – activation of SOD (Sensors on demand)
At least one SEN is S1 2 – to intensify the presence up to 24 hours/day
At least n SENs are S1 or at least one SEN is S2
3/1 – to issue a notice of ordinary criticality (level 1)
At least n SENs are S2 or at least one SEN is S3
3/2 - to issue a notice of moderate criticality (level 2)
At least n SENs are S3 3/3 - to issue a notice of high or severe criticality (level 3)
CCC
Sensor network Model output
Geological and Hydraulic Safety along Motorways and Railways
EVENT AND RISK SCENARIOS
Pasquale VERSACE
PROGETTO PON01_01503SISTEMI INTEGRATI PER IL MONITORAGGIO, L’EARLY WARNING E LA MITIGAZIONE DEL RISCHIO IDROGEOLOGICO LUNGO LE GRANDI VIE DI COMUNICAZIONE. DISCUTIAMO I RISULTATI
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