George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning ... · 1.2 An environmental statement of...

George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

Transport Report


Transport Report

JMP Consultants Limited 250 West George Street Glasgow

G2 4QY T 0141 221 4030

F 0800 066 4367 E [email protected]

www.jmp.co.uk

Job No. SCT3445

Report No. 1

Prepared by K Clarke / J Green

Verified KC

Approved by KC

Status Final

Issue No. 4

Date 02 May 2014


Transport Report

Contents Amendments Record

This document has been issued and amended as follows:

Status/Revision Revision description Issue Number Approved By Date

Draft 1 KC 15/10/2013

Draft Client Review 2 KC 15/11/2013

Final Legal Review 3 KC 05/12/2013

Final Representation Response 4 KC 02/05/2014

Contents

1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1

2 PLANNING CONTEXT .......................................................................................................... 3

Policy and Guidance .............................................................................................................. 3

Planning Policy Statements ................................................................................................... 3

Transport Assessment- Guidelines for Development Proposals in Northern Ireland ................ 4

3 EXISTING SITUATION .......................................................................................................... 5

Walking ................................................................................................................................. 5

Cycling .................................................................................................................................. 6

Public Transport .................................................................................................................... 7

Adjacent Highway Network .................................................................................................... 7

Existing Airport Car Parking Arrangements ............................................................................ 9

Passenger Movements ........................................................................................................ 10

4 DEVELOPMENT TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................. 12

Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 12

Survey Data ......................................................................................................................... 15

Vehicle Trip Distribution ....................................................................................................... 17

Traffic Growth ...................................................................................................................... 17

Committed Developments .................................................................................................... 18

Airport Vehicle Trip Generation ............................................................................................ 19

Scenario Trip Generation Comparison ................................................................................. 24

Parking ................................................................................................................................ 25

Existing Parking Situation .................................................................................................... 25

Future Parking ..................................................................................................................... 26

5 TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT ...................................................................................... 28

Background ......................................................................................................................... 28

Base Paramics Results ........................................................................................................ 29

Mitigation Measures ............................................................................................................. 32

Mitigation Paramics Results ................................................................................................. 32

Preliminary Design of Identified Physical Mitigation .............................................................. 34

6 PROPOSED SUPPORTING TRANSPORT MEASURES ..................................................... 36

Travel Plan .......................................................................................................................... 36

Walking and Cycling ............................................................................................................ 36

Public Transport .................................................................................................................. 37

Parking Provision ................................................................................................................. 38

Access................................................................................................................................. 38

7 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 40

Tables and Figures

Table 3.1 Parking Capacity ......................................................................................................... 10 Table 4.1 Airport Related Percentage Mode Share ...................................................................... 13 Table 4.2 Traffic Distribution A2 .................................................................................................. 17 Table 4.3 TA Predicted Flows on the A2 ...................................................................................... 18 Table 4.4 Airport Traffic Flows (Two-Way) ................................................................................... 24 Table 4.5 Scenario Comparison (Two-Way Airport Traffic Flows) ................................................ 24 Table 4.6 Existing April Car Parking Usage ................................................................................. 26 Table 4.7 Existing July Car Parking Usage .................................................................................. 26 Table 4.8 Future with Modification (without SFS) Parking Demand .............................................. 27 Table 5.1 GB BCA Paramics Network Summary Results ............................................................. 30 Table 5.2 GB BCA Paramics Network Summary Results (AM Peak) ............................................ 30 Table 5.3 GB BCA Paramics Network Summary Results (PM Peak) ............................................ 30 Table 6.1 IHT Guidelines - Suggested Acceptable Walking Distance ........................................... 37 Table 6.2 Walk and Cycle Time by Distance ................................................................................ 37 Table 6.3 Car Parking Changes .................................................................................................. 38

Figure 1.1 Location of GB BCA .....................................................................................................1 Figure 3.1 Site Location ................................................................................................................5 Figure 3.2 Footway along A2 and pedestrian bridge connecting to Sydenham station ....................6 Figure 3.3 Cycleway on A2 ............................................................................................................6 Figure 3.4 Vehicle Access to GB BCA (From North) ......................................................................7 Figure 3.5 Vehicle Access to GB BCA (From South) ......................................................................8 Figure 3.6 GB BCA Car Parks .......................................................................................................9 Figure 3.7 April and July Passenger Movements ......................................................................... 11 Figure 4.1 JTC Survey Locations................................................................................................. 16 Figure 4.2 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Base Scenario......................................... 20 Figure 4.3 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Base Scenario ................................ 20 Figure 4.4 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Without Modification ................................ 21 Figure 4.5 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Without Modification Scenario......... 22 Figure 4.6 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: With Modification ..................................... 23 Figure 4.7 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: With Modification ............................ 23 Figure 4.8 Comparison of Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GBBCA .................................. 24 Figure 5.1 PARAMICS Model Extent ........................................................................................... 28 Figure 5.2 Travel Time Results for A2 Northbound ...................................................................... 31 Figure 5.3 Travel Time Results for A2 Southbound ...................................................................... 32 Figure 5.4 Travel Time Results for Mitigation Measures on A2 Northbound ................................. 33 Figure 5.5 Travel Time Results for Mitigation Measures on A2 Southbound ................................. 34 Figure 5.6 Preliminary Design ..................................................................................................... 35

Appendices

APPENDIX A Engagement with DRD Roads Service / Amey APPENDIX B Traffic Survey Data APPENDIX C Validation of Assumptions APPENDIX D Network Diagrams APPENDIX E Parking APPENDIX F A2 & NRTF Analysis APPENDIX G Committed Developments APPENDIX H Scenario Analysis APPENDIX I Flight Schedules APPENDIX J AM & PM 3 Hour Modelling Periods APPENDIX K Paramics Modelling APPENDIX L Preliminary Design APPENDIX M Flow Charts APPENDIX N Accident Data

Job No Report No Issue no Report Name Page

SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

1

1 Introduction

1.1 JMP Consultants Ltd (JMP) has been commissioned by George Best Belfast City Airport Limited

(GB BCA) to undertake an assessment of the traffic and transport related effects of an request to

modify the current Planning Agreement in place for the GB BCA (the site). It was considered and

agreed with DoE Planning and DRD Roads Service (RS) that adopting the general format of a

Transport Assessment (TA) would help to inform the public inquiry to be held by the Planning

Appeals Commission (PAC) regarding the transport effects of the proposed modification.

1.2 An environmental statement of the possible environmental implications of the ‘project’ which

derives from the proposed variation (see Chapter 4 of the environmental statement), including

traffic, has been provided which includes commentary on the effects with regard to change in traffic

flows (Chapter 12). The environmental statement is a fundamental element of the assessment of

transport related environmental effects.

1.3 Consultation for the transport element of the analysis has been undertaken with DRD Roads

Service (RS) in relation to the transportation impacts of the proposed modification. This

consultation was in the form of preliminary meetings with RS officers followed by a scoping

exercise culminating in a scoping letter sent to RS and their term consultants Amey. This revised

report seeks to respond to the comments and request for clarification in the “Review of Transport

Assessments” dated March 2014 and prepared by Amey on behalf of RS. In seeking to do so, the

document also responds to representations by other parties. Copies of the exchange of

information between the project team and RS/Amey are included in Appendix A.

Existing Site Operation

1.4 GB BCA currently supports domestic UK and international flights. The airport operation is

regulated by an Article 40 agreement which currently includes a “seats for sale” restriction plus a

restriction on the total number of flights to and from the airport.

1.5 The location of the existing site is shown in Figure 1.1 below.

Figure 1.1 Location of GB BCA

Google

Page Job No Report No Issue no Report Name

2 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

Proposed Change to Planning Agreement

1.6 GB BCA are seeking to modify the terms of their current Planning Agreement with the Department

of the Environment (DOE), in the following way:

The removal of the ‘Seats for Sale’ limit;

The introduction of a noise contour control cap on the area falling within the 57dB(A) LAeq 16

Hr contour; and

The introduction of other noise control measures.

1.7 The current agreement also includes a maximum number of aircraft movements in and out of the

site. This limit of 48,000 movements is unaffected by the proposed modification. For the

avoidance of doubt, the existing annual number of aircraft movements is less than the maximum

number permitted under the current planning agreement.

1.8 The proposed modification could impact on traffic generation due to the change in passengers

travelling to and from GB BCA. This report will quantify and assess the potential effects of the

‘project’ (see Chapter 4 of the environmental statement and Section 2 of the addendum), on the

surrounding road network and gives consideration to the sustainable transport network. The

analysis is necessarily calculated on a best estimate basis.



3

2 Planning Context

Policy and Guidance

2.1 This assessment has generally been undertaken in accordance with the “Transport Assessment –

Guidelines for Development Proposals in Northern Ireland”. This TA guidance is referred to in both

PPS3 and PPS13 and provides a good practice guide for the transport assessment of new

developments. It generally applies to circumstances where planning applications are under

consideration but is used here in the absence of any alternative body of guidance.

2.2 The guidance identifies that where traffic impact is being considered reference should also be

made to the Institution of Highways and Transportation (IHT) publication, “Guidelines for Traffic

Impact Assessment” which will be used in the preparation of such analysis.

2.3 The TA guidance additionally indicates that the environmental impact of development related traffic

should be addressed within supporting transport information. The IHT guidelines provide that the

environmental transport impacts should be assessed in accordance with the Institute of

Environmental Assessment (IEA) publication ‘Guidelines for the Environmental Assessment of

Road Traffic’. The environmental assessment in accordance with the IEA guidelines has been

undertaken in the supporting environmental statement. Chapter 7 of the environmental statement

considers noise impacts and Chapter 8 considers impacts on air and climate (refer to Section 4

(noise) and Section 5 (Air and climate) of the addendum).

2.4 Any infrastructure proposals will be designed in accordance with Development Control Advice Note

(DCAN) 15: “Vehicular Access Standards” and “The Design Manual For Roads and Bridges

(DMRB)”

Planning Policy Statements

2.5 Planning Policy Statements 3 and 13 refer to transport related implications of new developments.

Both documents build on the theme of developing sustainable transport solutions to mitigate

development related transport impacts and are more usually applied in the context of the

determination of planning applications.

2.6 Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) recognises that large travel generating developments require

to be supported by a Transport Assessment report (PPS3, Policy AMP6, “Transport Assessment”)

and for development proposals to be considered within the “context of wider government policy

aimed at achieving more sustainable travel patterns through a change in transport behaviour”.

2.7 Policy AMP 7 indicates that development proposals require adequate provision for car parking and

appropriate servicing arrangements.

2.8 Planning Policy 13 (PPS13) - Integration of Transport and Land-Use Planning also recognises the

requirement for a sustainable transport approach towards assessing and mitigating development

related transport impacts which includes for the provision of measures and support for non private

vehicle modes. It further suggests that a Travel Plan should be a consideration in terms of

assisting mode shift towards the more sustainable modes.



Transport Assessment- Guidelines for Development Proposals in Northern Ireland

2.9 The “Transport Assessment – Guidelines for Development Proposals in Northern Ireland” (TA

guide, 2006) is referred to by both PPS3 and PPS13 and is intended to provide a good practice

guide for the transport assessment of new developments. As noted above it is generally applicable

in the context of planning applications. The document provides a general guide to transport

assessments and some detailed information on criteria that should be considered. The document

references the IHT report, “Guidelines for Traffic Impact Assessment”, regarding advice on the

assessment of traffic impact.

2.10 The thrust of the NI guidelines is to adopt a sustainable transport approach to supporting new

development proposals. The principle being to ensure that consideration is given to encouraging

changes in travel behaviour to more sustainable transport modes. The TA guide indicates that the

form of measures which should be considered include Travel Plans, financial incentives to

encourage alternative uses, improving walk and cycle infrastructure and more attractive public

transport along with any road improvements required to accommodate residual traffic.

2.11 With regard to traffic impact analysis, paragraph 4.111 of the NI guide sets out the approach to be

adopted. Reference is made to the IHT Guidelines for Traffic Impact Assessment, for best practice

guidance along with notes on some key issues. Of specific interest is the principle for,

“establishing the acceptability of mitigation measures for development impacts will be advised by

Roads Service during scoping discussions”.

2.12 The principle of “no net detriment” remains valid.

2.13 As indicated in the introduction, this planning policy and guidance requires to be interpreted in

terms of this being a proposed modification to a planning agreement which regulates the operation

of an existing development, not with regard to the acceptability of a new development in location or

transport accessibility terms.



5

3 Existing Situation

3.1 GB BCA is located to the north east of Belfast and is located off the A2 Sydenham Bypass. The A2

connects to Belfast City Centre and further afield via the motorway network at the signalised

junction of Dee Street and to the north via Holywood to Bangor through the Tillysburn junction.

There is excellent vehicular access to the strategic road network providing links to the wider

population within Northern Ireland.

Figure 3.1 Site Location

Google Image

Walking

3.2 Pedestrian access to the site is available from the at-grade junction with the A2 Sydenham Bypass

with walking to the terminal building possible through the car parking areas and utilising a painted

walkway.

3.3 There is a footway along the airport side of the A2 which connects back towards Belfast City

Centre and onward towards Holywood. A pedestrian footbridge, associated with the Sydenham

Rail Halt provides grade separate pedestrian access to the residential area on the south side of the

bypass and railway. The lack of adjacent land uses around the airport and therefore the distance

pedestrians would require to walk to the GB BCA site plus the severance impacts of the A2 dual

carriageway results in a very low overall percentage of walk trips to and from the airport, measured

at around 0.1% (as indicated by Table 4.1) of all movements.



Figure 3.2 Footway along A2 and pedestrian bridge connecting to Sydenham station

Google Image

Cycling

3.4 The A2 includes a cycleway, in both directions, running in the hard shoulder of the road and

adjacent to the airport boundary. Notwithstanding the quality of facilities, cycling to the GB BCA site

represents a lower percentage of all movements than walking.

Figure 3.3 Cycleway on A2

Google Image



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Public Transport

3.5 Translink operate an Airport Express 600 service between BCA and the Europa Buscentre. The

bus has a 20 minute frequency (at peak times) and departs from a bus stop located outside the

terminal building. Details of the service are available at http://www.translink.co.uk.

3.6 A private “Airporter” service to Derry/Londonderry also operates from the front of the terminal with

eleven services per day (on week days).

3.7 Annual travel data (from 2010) indicates that just over 200,000 passengers travelled to and from

the airport by bus (7.6% of all passengers). The proportion of travellers by bus at recognised

commuter peak travel periods was surveyed to be less than 1% (GB BCA travel survey 2010).

3.8 Sydenham Rail Halt is around 800m (10 minutes walk) from the airport terminal building. There is

currently the option of a shuttle bus operating between the station and airport. For the purposes of

this assessment, users of the train halt were recorded as either pedestrians walking from the halt to

the airport or shuttle bus users (i.e. using the shuttle bus to reach the terminal). The walking route

is described above.

Adjacent Highway Network

3.9 The A2 Sydenham Bypass forms the eastern boundary of the Airport site. Vehicular access to the

site is available directly from the A2 via an at-grade traffic signal junction to the south of the main

terminal building. The junction is the main access and supports inbound movements from both the

north (Holywood) and south (Belfast City Centre). The A2 connects to Belfast City Centre and

further afield via the motorway network via the signalised junction at Dee Street and to the north via

Holywood to Bangor through the Tillysburn junction.

Figure 3.4 Vehicle Access to GB BCA (From North)

Google Image



Figure 3.5 Vehicle Access to GB BCA (From South)

Google Image

3.10 Traffic exiting the site at the main access junction is able to join the A2 in the Holywood direction.

Traffic exiting the site in the Belfast bound direction requires to do so through a purpose-built grade

separated underpass connection located to the north of the terminal which provides access directly

onto the A2 southbound carriageway.

3.11 Within the Airport the site access road provides a two-way route between the site access junctions

with the A2. The internal site layout provides a segmented approach to managing each element of

traffic. The southernmost car park is utilised for short stay parking, private car and private taxi

(non-Airport approved) drop-off and pick-up. North of the terminal there is a long stay parking

facility and on-site car hire parking for pick-up and drop-off. The relevance of the segmentation of

vehicles relates to the way in which different user groups use the internal road network.

3.12 With regard to the operation of the road network, the A2 is heavily trafficked in peak periods with

the consequence of long and slow moving platoons of traffic along the route, generally relating to

the current junction operation at the Dee Street and Tillysburn junctions. At the Airport access

junction, city bound traffic is always given priority and therefore no queues form in this location.

With regard to the right turn movement into the Airport, surveys have indicated queues of up to 12

vehicles waiting to turn right into the Airport. In the north down bound direction queues will form

when the right turn traffic signal into the Airport is given priority. However, the queue dissipates

once the priority returns to the main traffic movement.

3.13 While generally this access junction and internal road layout operates within capacity, it is

recognised that there have been incidences where drivers queuing to access the airport have

infrequently delayed other road users.

3.14 This report will assess the appropriateness of the existing transport infrastructure in the context of

the ‘project’ and seek to identify measures, where available, to promote and encourage more

sustainable modes of travel insofar as they are applicable to this particular context.



9

Existing Airport Car Parking Arrangements

3.15 Figure 3.6 below shows the location of GB BCA car parks in relation to the main airport building.

Figure 3.6 GB BCA Car Parks

GB BCA

Short Stay

3.16 The short stay car park includes 454 car parking spaces, accessed directly from the main spine

road through the site. The access is in the form of a mini-roundabout, giving a high level of priority

to incoming traffic. The car park has 3 entry barriers and 4 exit barriers which are shared with

users of the Pick up / Drop off (PUDO) area. The short stay car park generally has spare parking

capacity.

3.17 The average duration of stay in the short stay car park is around 7 hours 15 minutes excluding

PUDO.

Pick-Up and Drop-Off (PUDO) Area

3.18 The PUDO area shares an entry and exit point with the short stay car park and has a practical

capacity of around 20 vehicles. The PUDO area mostly operates at or around capacity however at

certain points during the day has been recorded as operating above capacity. The vast majority of

passenger vehicles using the PUDO area (90%) will have duration of stay of 10 minutes or less as

the first 10 minutes are free of charge.

Long stay

3.19 The long stay car park includes 1264 car parking spaces. The usage of the long stay car park at

GB BCA fluctuates throughout the year and increases significantly during summer months. The

long stay car park currently operates within capacity but during the summer period in 2013 the

demand for the long stay car park generally operates around or just over capacity.

3.20 The average duration of stay in the car park depends on the season. It is noted that vehicles tend

to stay for longer periods during the summer peak holiday season than during the more business

flight dominant winter period.



3.21 The average duration of stay between Friday 19th and Friday 26

th April 2013 (inclusive) was around

30 hours.

3.22 When parking demand is in excess of capacity, GB BCA adopt management measures to

successfully relocate and accommodate that demand. During 2013 such measures were

employed on approximately 5 occasions, all during the July (discussed further in Chapter 4). The

application of these measures ensured that this excessive parking demand was accommodated

on-site.

Staff

3.23 At the time of the parking survey was carried out in April 2013 staff made use of the short stay and

long stay car parks (predominantly short stay). The average duration of stay of staff is

approximately 7.5 hours. Since April 2013, staff members at GB BCA now use a separate car park

to the north-east of the airport building. The removal of staff from the short stay car park means

that parking demand generally operates well within capacity.

3.24 Other non public car park bound vehicles also use the airport access junctions such as delivery

vehicles, contractors and airport taxis. Airport taxis have a drop off / pick up area as close as

possible to the terminal frontage. Other non public car park bound vehicles are generally directed

to a separate car park north-east of the long stay car park.

Fast track, Executive and Car Rental

3.25 As shown by Figure 3.6 there is also a separate Fast Track and Car Rental area. The Fast Track

area can only be used by pre-booking a space and used in conjunction with the Fast Track Annual

Pass. The executive car parking area is also part of the Fast Track car park however cannot be

pre-booked.

3.26 The car rental area is used for storing, pick up and drop off of hired cars by a number of hire

companies which operate at the airport. Table 3.1 below shows the current capacity of the carious

car parks.

Table 3.1 Parking Capacity

Car Park Current Capacity

Short Stay 454

Long Stay 1264

PUDO 20

Fast Track 273

Car Hire (car hire parking and drop off) 379

Staff (within short stay provision) 0

Total 2 390

GB BCA

Passenger Movements

3.27 Baseline surveys of passenger movements have been provided by York Aviation in the form of

annual movements and average daily movements for the busiest month of the year in order to

provide a robust assessment.



11

3.28 JMP has been provided with details of passenger movements during April, coinciding with the day

on which traffic surveys were undertaken and passenger movements during July, representing a

typical busy day. On 22nd

April 2013, there were 7,337 two-way passenger movements per day to

and from the site. Similarly, on a typical busy in 2013 there were 9,350 two-way passenger

movements per day. This passenger data was received from York Aviation and GB BCA is

included in Appendix I.

3.29 The assessment of baseline passenger movements has been based on a typical busy day in July

2013. The profile of existing passenger arrivals and departures was provided by York Aviation on

the basis of actual flight schedules and passenger loadings, and is included in Appendix I.

3.30 With regard to passenger travel movements to and from the airport, there is a shift in the pattern of

movement compared with flight times. GB BCA have confirmed that departing passengers

generally arrive at the airport around one hour before flying to allow time to pass through security

and arrive at the gate before departure. Similarly, those arriving at the airport take around 25

minutes after their flight has arrived to get to the landside of the terminal. These parameters will be

taken into account when determining people travel movements to and from GB BCA.

3.31 The Figure 3.7 below shows the total two-way passenger movements (arrivals and departures) on

22nd

April 2013 and a typical busy day in July 2013.

Figure 3.7 April and July Passenger Movements

York Aviation and JMP



4 Development Travel Characteristics

4.1 This chapter of the Transport Report (TR) looks in detail at the potential travel characteristics of the

‘project’ including trip generation, modal split and trip distribution.

Methodology

4.2 In order to understand the future potential traffic generation of GB BCA it was necessary to

understand the relationship between current passenger movements, traffic flows in and out of GB

BCA against the operating flight schedule on the day of the surveys. The different stages of the

methodology are summarised in the following paragraphs.

Passenger Movements

4.3 A comparison of existing and future passenger movements against flight schedules was

undertaken which included;

2013 April Scenario;

2013 July Scenario;

2025 July Scenario assuming retention of the seats for sale limit (SFS) (“2025 Without

modification”); and

2025 July Scenario assuming the removal of the SFS limit (“2025 With modification”).

4.4 For each of the passenger scenarios above there has been an application of site arrival and

departure time offset defined in paragraph 3.30 above and of mode share / passengers per vehicle

occupancy factors indicated in Table 4.1 and paragraph 4.14 below. The application of these

factors provided passenger related vehicle movements.

Non Passenger Movements

4.5 There are a series on non passenger related traffic movements associated with the site including

freight, contractor, airport and ancillary employees not accessing public car parks (eg car hire

staff). These are quantifiable in overall terms as the difference between the total traffic entering

and leaving the site (measured during 22nd

April surveys) and those accessing public car parks

(measured during week long parking records during April).

Baseline Traffic Data

4.6 In terms of the baseline traffic data, all airport related vehicular movements were removed from the

base counts on the A2. The base traffic on the A2 was then factored to 2025 and 2030 in

agreement with RS before airport and committed development related traffic were added to the

networks.

4.7 This ensured that baseline traffic data on the A2 was representative of the April scenario (neutral

traffic month) whilst the airport related traffic represented the busier summer related airport

movements.



13

Scenarios

4.8 Using the methodology above the following three scenarios were produced:

Traffic movements associated with existing summer schedule;

Traffic movements associated with 2025 Without modification Scenario; and

Traffic movements associated with the ‘project’ or the 2025 With modification Scenario

based on anticipated new schedule.

4.9 The traffic flow scenario for the 2025 With modification Scenario (removal of the SFS limitation) is

based on the potential anticipated traffic flow associated with the ‘project’ in the peak summer flight

scenario and should therefore be considered as the worst case traffic flows in terms of vehicles

accessing and egressing from GB BCA.

4.10 In order to provide a robust traffic assessment the worst case traffic flows generated by GB BCA

during the summer months were analysed against a neutral month (April) flows rather than the

traditionally lower traffic flows during the summer months.

4.11 All the assumptions contained within the methodology were validated using the relationship

between existing traffic movements and passenger information.

Mode Share

4.12 It is recognised that due to the operating nature of the airport the majority of the trips associated

with GB BCA will be via private vehicle, taxi or public transport. In order to determine the mode

split and to provide a baseline level for all modes of transport, manual traffic surveys commissioned

by GB BCA and undertaken in 2008 identified the travel mode of all movements through the airport.

The surveys were undertaken for two hours in the AM and two hours in the PM. The mode share

associated with the AM and PM period is indicated by Table 4.1 below.

Table 4.1 Airport Related Percentage Mode Share

Peak Percentage Mode Share

Car HGV Bus Taxi Coach Bike/M Bike Foot Total

AM1 85.4% 0% 0.4% 14.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0% 100%

PM1 76.2% 0% 0.5% 22.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0% 100%

GB BCA Commissioned Person Trip Surveys 2008

Note1 : Minor differences between Table 4.1 and Figure C10 due to rounding differences

4.13 This mode share split has been used to calculate future movements to and from GB BCA in

relation to total passenger numbers. In summary, 99% of movements are made by car or taxi.

Table 4.1 above also indicates that 0.4% and 0.5% of passengers travel to the airport by bus in the

AM and PM peak periods respectively.

4.14 As discussed in Paragraph 3.7, annual travel data associated with the Airport Express 600 and the

Airporter services suggests that approximately 7.6% of GB BCA passengers travel to the airport by

bus. This would result in a lower car / taxi mode share than indicated in Table 4.1. Also it is

understood that the Consumer Council published a research study in May 2010 which included a

survey of passengers’ preferred mode of transport to all airports in Northern Ireland. The study

showed that 8% of passengers take public transport to the airport.



4.15 However, since the GB BCA manual traffic survey from 2008 has indicated a total vehicle mode

share of around 99%, it is appropriate and robust to use this survey to inform the future traffic

impact assessment process. Figure C10 Appendix C includes the results of this survey and

associated analysis to generate Table 4.1.

Passenger Vehicle Occupancy

4.16 It is recognised that not every passenger movement will be in their own private vehicle and that due

to the nature of the operation there will be car and taxi sharing e.g. family trips, travelling with

business colleagues etc. It is recognised, and confirmed by GB BCA, that due to the high

proportion of GB BCA passengers for business purposes average passengers per vehicle

occupancy at the airport is relatively low. GB BCA informed that the average number of airport

passengers per vehicle was 1.59 (1.587).

4.17 In order to validate the accuracy of the passengers per vehicle occupancy figure, GB BCA provided

4 years’ worth of car park booking data (May 2010 – April 2014) for the short stay, long stay and

fast track car parks. The number of passengers associated with each booking was also included to

calculate the average passengers per vehicle occupancy. Analysis of this data indicated that the

average passengers per vehicle occupancy in the car parks in this date range was 1.582 i.e. 0.005

less than what was applied.

4.18 This analysis indicates that the application of an average passengers per vehicle occupancy of

1.59 (1.587) is accurate and that changing the occupancy figure to 1.58 (1.582), will have a

negligible impact on the assessment of future traffic and future parking requirements at GB BCA.

4.19 Further analysis of this data indicates that the average passengers per vehicle occupancy in July

2013 was 1.88. Since the analysis has been based on 1.59 (i.e. lower), this approach is robust in

the assessment of base traffic conditions. Figure C12 in Appendix C includes a summary of the

data used to validate the application of 1.59 passengers per vehicle occupancy to inform the future

traffic impact and parking assessment.

4.20 The data supplied by GB BCA is of sufficient size to provide an accurate representation of the

average passengers per vehicle occupancy at GB BCA.

Methodology Validation

Passenger Movements

4.21 Information provided by GBBCA indicated the following offsets in terms of passenger movements:

Arriving passengers take approximately 25 minutes to leave the airport; and

Departing passengers arrive at the airport 1 hour prior to the scheduled take-off time.

4.22 Using this information and following the analysis of the movement of passengers it indicated that

there is a clear pattern between passenger movements on and off the site and flight patterns.

Appendix C demonstrates the correlation between measured traffic, short stay and long stay

parking movements and calculated passenger vehicle movements based on our assumptions, and

demonstrates that the process which has been applied is valid. This process was carried out on the

flight schedule for Monday 22nd

April 2013 to allow for a direct comparison with the measured traffic

flows on and off the site.

4.23 It should be noted that a vehicle which has used airport parking at GB BCA will generate one

vehicle trip either in or out of the airport per arrival or departure whereas vehicles utilising the Pick

Up/Drop Off (PUDO) area will generate two trips i.e. one into the site and one out of the site. The



15

different nature of the trips utilising GB BCA have been factored into the calculated trip

generations.

4.24 Passengers utilising taxis as their mode of transport use either a private taxi or a GB BCA

approved taxi. Private taxis operate in the same manner as PUDO vehicles, i.e. one movement in

and one movement off the site. The airport approved taxis are permitted to wait at the airport taxi

rank to pick up passengers and therefore would only generate one trip. In order to provide a robust

analysis, all taxis have been considered to act as private taxis i.e. generate two trips per visit.

Uplift Factor

4.25 A comparison exercise was carried out on passenger related vehicle movements generated by

applying assumptions described throughout this Chapter on the flight schedule for Monday 22nd

April 2013 and the measured traffic flows from the same day. This indicated that the application of

these assumptions produced an overall deficit to the measures traffic flows of around 20%.

4.26 As a result of this, it was considered appropriate that a 30% uplift factor was applied to passenger

related vehicle movements. This ensures a robust assessment of future traffic impact, when

applying these assumptions to future flight schedules. The application of the 30% uplift factor is

shown throughout Appendix H.

Survey Data

Traffic Surveys

4.27 Traffic surveys were undertaken on Monday 22nd

April 2013 which collected all traffic movements

currently accessing and egressing the site as well as the flow northbound and southbound on the

A2. The surveys were undertaken for the period of 0430 to 2200 to cover the time the airport

gates were open in two locations:

Entry / Exit of GB BCA (at-grade) (junction 1)

Exit of GB BCA (underpass) (junction 2)

4.28 Figure 4.1 below shows the location of each of the Junction Turning Count (JTC) surveys.



Figure 4.1 JTC Survey Locations

Google/ JMP

4.29 In addition queue length surveys were undertaken at the traffic signals on the right turn into the site

from the southbound carriageway, the left turn into the site and on the northbound A2 movement.

4.30 The surveys established the AM and PM network peaks, as indicated below, which helped to

inform the AM and PM modelling periods.

AM – 0730 – 0830; and

PM – 1630 – 1730.

4.31 The baseline survey data, including queue data is included in Appendix B and shown by network

diagrams in Appendix D.

Parking Surveys

4.32 Parking survey data was provided by GB BCA to inform the assessment. On the day of the road

network traffic surveys (22nd

April 2013), the number of vehicles parked overnight on-site was

identified. For the 22nd

April, GB BCA also provided public parking entry, exit and duration of stay

data, available from the Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) system operating in

conjunction with the car park barriers at the short and long stay car parks. More extended

information (between 17th and 27

th April) was also made available with regard to the long stay car

park.

4.33 GB BCA also provided details of the number of vehicles parked overnight in both the short and long

stay car parks to assist in the assessment of parking accumulation associated with the typical busy

day in Summer.

4.34 The ANPR data is confidential in nature and cannot be published in this report. However, the

analysis of the information is included in Appendix E.



17

Vehicle Trip Distribution

4.35 Consideration was given to developing a distribution and assignment process on the basis of

gravity model principles. However, it became clear that this approach did not contribute to

effectively determine vehicle trip assignment in association with the airport accesses. Therefore,

the existing movements to and from GB BCA were analysed to provide a vehicle trip distribution

and assignment information. Table 4.2 below shows the general traffic distribution and assignment

of GB BCA vehicles entering and exiting from / to the A2.

Table 4.2 Traffic Distribution A2

In Out

North South North South

07:00 – 10:00 38% 62% 41% 59%

16:00 – 19:00 39% 61% 36% 64%

Other 39% 61% 41% 59%

JTC Traffic Surveys

4.36 It would be assumed that as GB BCA already attracts passengers from all major settlements in

Northern Ireland that the distribution of passengers will remain constant in the 2025 scenarios.

Appendix D contains the network diagrams associated with the base trip movements.

Traffic Growth

4.37 In order to factor traffic flows an NRTF growth factor was applied to existing flows on the A2.

Following discussions with RS and Amey a methodology was identified to provide a robust

estimate of the anticipated traffic growth on the A2 corridor without the proposed modification.

Factor to 2025

4.38 Notwithstanding the strategic road improvements planned by RS, assuming that the A2 will remain

in its current format of two lanes in either direction and to estimate traffic growth to 2025 the

following steps were undertaken:

An examination of the previous ten years flows during the identified peaks on the A2

Sydenham Bypass in accordance with DMRB Section 7.2.1 HD 24/06 paragraph 2.18 to

identify actual traffic growth related to development, policy and demographic changes in

the corridor;

A secondary validation process was undertaken by examining predicted flows from

Transport Assessments (TA) for major schemes in the area in comparison to actual flows

on the A2; and Specific development which will have a practical completion date pre 2025,

were identified, and added as a committed development flow.

4.39 In considering future traffic growth, the methodology set out in DMRB, of examining the flows over

a ten year period, the existing trend, was applied. Measured traffic growth, even when considering

the major developments which have opened in the region and directly affected this corridor, is

lower than NRTF Low Growth. However, in recognition of the PM peak period which is witnessing

an underlying growth equivalent to NRTF Low Growth factor, it was concluded that NRTF Low

Growth Factors should be utilised to forecast future year flows on the A2 before the provision of the

A2 widening scheme.



4.40 This approach would be supported by the A2 scheme assessment report which identifies the

constraints to growth on the A2 corridor.

4.41 Also the over prediction provided by previous TAs in the region would indicate that the traditional

application of Central Growth plus committed developments in this corridor has resulted in

assessments based on unrealistically high future traffic flow predictions. Table 4.3 below indicates

the flows on the A2 from the relevant identified TAs.

Table 4.3 TA Predicted Flows on the A2

Development (Flow Year)

AM Peak PM Peak

Predicted Counted Difference Predicted Counted Difference

IKEA (2007) - - - 5905 5085 820 (-14%)

Tesco (2009) 5553 5292 261 (-5%) 5490 5367 123 (-2%)

Airport Hotel (2010)*

5949 4465 1484 (-25%)

6168 4798 1370 (-22%)

JMP and RS *PM Peak Hour 1600-1700

4.42 It is evident that the method used in the previous TAs of applying NRTF Central Growth on the A2

corridor has led to a significant over prediction of traffic flows.

4.43 Given the above evidence, future base traffic in 2025 were based on a NRTF Low Growth Factor

from 2013 to 2025 plus the strategic committed developments as identified by RS and indicated

below.

Factor between 2025 and 2030

4.44 For robustness, assuming that the A2 will be upgraded by 2025 to three lanes in either direction the

traffic growth that will be applied during the 5 year period post 2025 will be NRTF Central Growth.

4.45 This provided a robust assessment identifying the implications for a future year scenario on the A2.

NRTF Central Growth for the period between 2025 and 2030 would equate to a 4.55% increase in

background traffic.

4.46 Full analysis and the data is set out in Appendix E.

Committed Developments

4.47 RS indicated that the following sites should be included as committed developments:

20% of Titanic Quarter Phase 2 (the element which could be delivered without significant

infrastructure improvement);

Sirocco Works; and

Hotel at GB BCA (for robustness, although the hotel will not be constructed in the location

permitted given the potential need to retain the land for car parking).

4.48 The traffic flows associated with these sites have been obtained from the TAs submitted with their

planning applications. No network diagrams where available for the Titanic Quarter development.

However, using the ward information from the TA, the number of vehicle trips assigned to the A2

was calculated.



19

4.49 The Sirocco Works TA included network diagrams indicating the total number of vehicle trips

generated in the AM and PM peak periods. The TA also considered committed development traffic

flows (insignificant traffic volume) which have been included in the total committed development

traffic flows associated with our future year traffic assessment at GBBCA, in order to provide a

robust assessment.

4.50 The traffic flows associated with these sites were factored to 16 and 18 hour flows using the same

profile as the flows on the A2 for the mixed use developments of Titanic Quarter and Sirocco

Works or a TRICS analysis for the hotel at the airport.

4.51 Appendix G contains the information gathered from the relevant TAs of the committed

developments and Figures D4 to D9 in Appendix D show the associated network diagrams.

Airport Vehicle Trip Generation

4.52 There are a number of different types of vehicles accessing and egressing GB BCA. Each of these

different sets of users has different travel patterns in relation to the operation of the airport during

its opening hours.

4.53 To aid understanding we have identified the travel pattern associated with the user group for each

of the time periods before identifying the impact on the scenario and showing the total vehicle

numbers accessing and egressing the airport.

2013 Baseline Scenario

4.54 The 2013 baseline scenario utilises the April 2013 measured flows and the 2013 summer peak

calculated airport flows.

Passenger Movements

4.55 By applying assumptions associated with mode share, vehicle occupancy and time shift application

to the existing summer flight schedule, the vehicle movements in and out of the airport were

generated (indicated by Figures 4.2 and 4.3 below). These figures indicate that the morning peak

in terms of vehicle movements occurs between 0500 and 0600 due to passengers arriving and

departing the early morning business related flights. In terms of the evening movements there are

two distinct peaks between 1600 and 1700 and a marginally higher peak between 2100 and 2200.

4.56 As indicated above the network AM peak is between 0730 and 0830 and therefore the morning

peak for passenger movements occurs outwith the network peak. The network PM peak was

between 1630 and 1730 and this coincides with one of the two major peaks in airport related

passenger movements.

Other Movements

4.57 Staff vehicle movements have been kept consistent with those measured and identified from the

baseline surveys. All other unidentified movements reflect the difference between traffic accessing

the airport and traffic accessing the airport car parks.

4.58 Figures 4.2 and 4.3 indicate the total vehicles in and out of the airport in the baseline situation and

the total two way movements.



Figure 4.2 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Base Scenario

GB BCA& JMP

Figure 4.3 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Base Scenario

GB BCA& JMP

4.59 By applying the traffic distributions outlined in Table 4.1 network diagrams for the peak hours in the

base conditions were created and are included in Appendix D.

2025 Without modification Scenario (With SFS)

4.60 If the Planning Agreement is not modified it is still anticipated that there would be changes to the

flows accessing and egressing the site. This is related to the changing types of aircraft, changes in

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21

schedules and also the importance of summer sunshine destinations which are predicted to

increase in the forthcoming years.

Passenger Movements

4.61 Figures 4.4 and 4.5 indicate the vehicle movements in and out of GB BCA for the 2025 summer

scenario. These figures again indicate that the morning peak in terms of vehicle movements

occurs between 0500 and 0600 due to passengers arriving and departing the early morning

business related flights. In terms of the evening movements there are again two distinct peaks

between 1600 and 1700 and a marginally higher peak between 2100 and 2200.

4.62 The AM peak for passenger movements still occurs outwith the network peak. The PM peak for

passenger movements still occurs during the PM network peak.

Other Movements

4.63 York Aviation assessed the impact on employment levels at GB BCA as a result of the modification

of the Planning Agreement. It was found that employment levels would reduce by approximately

10% between the 2013 base conditions and the 2025 Without Modification scenario. This was as a

result of increased employment productivity effects producing a higher GVA (gross value added)

per employee over time. As a result, staff vehicles have been reduced by 10% from existing levels.

4.64 It is understood that York Aviation has since provided new employment figures that suggests a

greater employment activity that provided originally. This would indicate a greater reduction in the

number of staff and therefore staff vehicles. However, it was considered appropriate and robust to

adopt the original reduction factor.

4.65 All other unidentified movements have been factored by 30% to reflect the anticipated growth in

airport activity.

Figure 4.4 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Without Modification

GB BCA& JMP

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Figure 4.5 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Without Modification Scenario

GB BCA& JMP

4.66 By applying the traffic distributions outlined in Table 4.1 ‘Without Modification scenario network

diagrams were created and are included in Appendix D.

2025 With Modification Scenario (Without SFS)

Passenger Movements

4.67 Figures 4.6 and 4.7 show the vehicle movements in and out of GB BCA for 2025 summer scenario

with the proposed modification agreed. These figures again indicate that the morning peak in

terms of vehicle movements occurs between 0500 and 0600 due to passengers arriving and

departing the early morning business related flights.

4.68 There is now also a distinct peak in passenger movements during the interpeak period between

1000 and 1100 and again between 1300 and 1400. In terms of the evening movements there are

again two distinct peaks between 1600 and 1700 and a marginally higher peak between 2100 and

2200.

4.69 The AM peak for passenger movements still occurs outwith the network peak. The PM peak for

passenger movements still occurs during the PM network peak. Whilst the peak passenger

movements occurs during low flow conditions on the A2.

Other Movements

4.70 Data from York Aviation indicates that staff levels are expected to increase from existing levels as a

result of the increase of predicted passenger numbers, with staff levels expected to increase by

approximately 12% from 2013 levels. As discussed in Paragraph 4.65, York Aviation have provided

new information that would suggest a smaller than 12% increase in the number of staff in the 2025

With Modification Scenario. However, it was considered appropriate and robust to adopt the

percentage increase originally provided by York Aviation.

4.71 All other unidentified movements have been factored by 30% to reflect the anticipated growth in

airport activity.

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23

Figure 4.6 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: With Modification

GB BCA& JMP

Figure 4.7 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: With Modification

GB BCA& JMP

4.72 By applying the traffic distributions outlined in Table 4.1 network diagrams for the With Modification

scenario were created and are included in Appendix D.

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Scenario Trip Generation Comparison

4.73 Table 4.4 below shows the two-way vehicle movements of airport traffic for the three scenarios

considered and Table 4.5 compares the 2025 Without Modification (with SFS) and With

Modification (without SFS) scenarios.

Table 4.4 Airport Traffic Flows (Two-Way)

Scenario 24-Hour AM Peak PM Peak Inter-Peak

2013 Base 13475 628 1267 1128

2025 Without Modification (with SFS) 14338 612 1482 1281

2025 With Modification (without SFS) 17401 845 1673 1704

JMP

Table 4.5 Scenario Comparison (Two-Way Airport Traffic Flows)

Scenario 24-Hour AM Peak PM Peak Inter-Peak

2013 Base : 2025 Without Modification (with SFS)

+ 863 (6%)

- 16 (3%) + 215 (17%)

+153 (14%)

2013 Base : 2025 With Modification (without SFS)

+ 3926 (29%)

+ 217 (35%)

+ 406 (32%)

+ 576 (51%)

2025 Without Modification (with SFS) : 2025 With Modification (without SFS)

+3063 (21%)

+233 (38%)

+191 (13%)

+423 (33%)

4.74 Figure 4.8 below indicates the Total Vehicle Movements in and out of GB BCA

Figure 4.8 Comparison of Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GBBCA

JMP

4.75 Table 4.4 indicates that there is a general increase in two-way GB BCA traffic movements from the

2013 base through to the 2025 With Modification Scenario (without SFS). It is evident that traffic

increases between the Without Modification (with SFS) and With Modification (without SFS)



25

scenarios are significant due to the anticipated change in passenger numbers. The increase is

primarily during the AM peak and inter-peak periods with less of an impact during the PM peak

period due to the already high levels of flights occurring during that period.

4.76 Appendix H shows the full analysis of the 3 scenarios described above.

Parking

Parking Movements

4.77 Detailed parking data, associated with Monday 22nd

April 2013, was provided by GB BCA for the

short stay and long stay car parks. The data was extracted from the in / out barriers and ANPR

cameras located at the short stay and long stay entries and exits. Staff usage of both the short stay

and long stay car parks was also provided for the same day. Staff use pass cards to access these

car parks and can, therefore, be identified separately from passenger related movements. As the

short stay and long stay car park data was inclusive of staff vehicles (confirmed by GB BCA) these

vehicles were subtracted from overall totals in order to solely track passenger related vehicle

parking and access characteristics.

Short Stay

4.78 The parking data for the short stay car park allowed for analysis to be carried out on existing levels

of parking accumulation against capacity. As mentioned in Chapter 3, the PUDO area is part of the

short stay car park. As a result, short stay parking data also included PUDO data. As discussed in

the paragraph below, all vehicles will a duration of stay of less than 1 hour is considered to by a

PUDO vehicle, not a vehicle parking in the short stay car park.

Pick-up / Drop-off Area

4.79 The data gathered does not differentiate between the short stay car park and the PUDO area.

Following discussions with GB BCA, it was agreed that all vehicles with a duration of stay less than

1 hour were to be considered PUDO vehicles on the basis that the pricing structure encouraged

short duration stays, including first 10 minutes free.

Staff Parking Usage

4.80 It should be noted that since the day of the survey, separate staff parking is provided to the north-

east of the airport building which is to be used at busy times. However, at the time of the survey

staff were using the short stay and long stay car parks. Therefore, when calculating future parking

requirements, staff vehicles were extracted from any parking calculations. For the avoidance of

doubt in terms of traffic flow calculations, staff vehicles were included.

Existing Parking Situation

Existing Car Parking Usage

4.81 Table 4.6 below shows the existing demand of GB BCA car parks against capacity on Monday 22nd

April 2013 and a typical busy day in July 2013. The number of vehicles parked overnight has been

determined in discussions with GB BCA and based on the parking characteristics which were

experienced during April and July 2013.



Table 4.6 Existing April Car Parking Usage

Demand Capacity Comments

Short Stay 377 454 70 Cars Parked Overnight (GB BCA)

Long Stay 1077 1264 600 Cars Parked Overnight (GB BCA)

PUDO 20 20 Based on Existing Usage

Fast Track 273 273 GB BCA Control Usage

Car Rental Car Hire (car hire parking and drop off)

379 379 Usage Controlled by Car Hire Companies

Total 2126 2390

GB BCA& JMP

Table 4.7 Existing July Car Parking Usage

Demand Capacity Comments

Short Stay 234 454 70 Cars Parked Overnight (GB BCA)

Long stay 14551 1264

10002 Cars Parked Overnight

(GB BCA)

PUDO 20 20 Based on Existing Usage

Fast Track 273 273 GB BCA Control Usage

Car Rental Car Hire (car hire parking and drop off)

379 379 Usage Controlled by Car Hire Companies

Total 2361 2390

GB BCA & JMP

Note1 : GB BCA confirmed that when demand exceeded capacity, long stay vehicles are directed to other car

parks on the site. GB BCA also confirmed that this occurred approximately 5 times in 2013 all between 6th July

2013 and 20th July 2013.

2 : GB BCA carried out a survey in July 22

nd which indicated 862 vehicles in the car

park at the beginning of the day. This has been factored to 1000 (and confirmed by GB BCA) to take into account fluctuations between the time this survey was carried out and the busiest period in July.

4.82 Staff vehicles were included in the analysis of parking demand against capacity in the existing April

scenario and excluded in the existing July scenario. From the survey data it was calculated that

there were approximately 240 staff currently using the short stay car cark on 22nd

April 2013 and

approximately 130 staff using the long stay car park.

4.83 It is clear that the short stay car park operates will operates well within capacity with staff removed

from the car park. The long stay car park currently operates within capacity but during the summer

period in 2013 the demand for longer stay parking exceeded capacity on approximately 5

occasions between 6th July and 20

th July 2013 (information provided by GB BCA). Longer stay

vehicles were directed to other car parks within the site with spare capacity at the time to manage

this busy period.

Future Parking

4.84 Parking analysis was undertaken for the future ‘With Modification scenario (without SFS) Summer

Peak case in order to understand future parking capacity requirements as a result of the increased

number of vehicles arriving at the airport throughout the day. Table 4.8 below summarises the



27

analysis carried out on future parking demand against existing capacity. The spreadsheets and are

included in Appendix E.

Table 4.8 Future with Modification (without SFS) Parking Demand

Demand Existing Capacity

Practical Reserve Capacity

Potential Future Provision (agreed with GB BCA)

Comments

Short Stay 366 454 10% 395 87 Cars Parked Overnight

1 (GB

BCA)

Long stay 2140 1264 0% 2166 1539 Cars Parked Overnight

1 (GB

BCA)

PUDO 40 20 0% 41 Based on doubling the capacity of PUDO area

Fast Track 2732 273 0% 273

GB BCA Control Usage

Car Rental (car hire parking and drop off)

402 379 0% 402 Usage Controlled by Car Hire Companies

Total 3221 2390 3277

GB BCA& JMP

Note1: Number of vehicles parked overnight based on applying an uplift to the number cars parked overnight

in July 2013. The uplift is equal to the sum of vehicles entering the car park(s) in the future with modification scenario divided by the sum of vehicles entering the car park(s) in the existing July scenario.

2Fast Track and

Car Hire assumed to be fully used.

4.85 The calculation of parking demand for the future with modification scenario has been carried out

based on a predicated “typical busy day” in summer 2025. Furthermore, the maximum parking

demand for the short stay and long stay car parks shown in the table above considers the absolute

worst-case scenario. The maximum parking accumulation of 2140 in the long stay car park occurs

between 16:00 and 17:00 and assumes that zero cars leave the car park during that particular hour

(indicated by Figure E6 of Appendix E). This ensures a robust assessment of the maximum future

parking demand. In addition, the table above indicates that this is still within the future parking

provision at the airport agreed with GB BCA.

4.86 While it is acknowledged that a maximum parking demand of 2140 leaves little practical reserve

capacity in the long stay car park , it is recognised that this is likely to occur during peak summer

periods only and that maximum parking accumulation is based on a very robust assessment.

Therefore, the future provision of long stay car parking spaces is sufficient to accommodate

maximum parking demand.

4.87 As anticipated the short stay car park is expected to operate within capacity. Following discussions

with GB BCA, the PUDO area may require to double in size in order to accommodate the potential

additional vehicles generated by the proposed modification. The future long stay car parking

demand is likely to operate well over the existing capacity during summer peak periods. Mitigation

measures to accommodate these potential increases are discussed in Section 6.



5 Traffic Impact Assessment

Background

5.1 Following discussions between JMP, Amey and RS, the A2 in the vicinity of GB BCA and including

the main access junction and egress slip road have been modelled using the Microsimulation

software package Paramics. This corridor has been identified as the study area to reflect that there

was no significant traffic impact (greater than 5%) beyond this section of road network in line with

the Northern Ireland TA guidelines (2006).

5.2 The model extent includes a large section of the A2 Sydenham By-Pass and two junctions that

feed and/or provide an exit to the airport site. Access to the airport and exit onto the northbound

carriage of the A2 is provided to the south of the site via a signalised intersection, while the exit

from the airport onto the A2 southbound is provided by an underpass to the north of the site which

directs traffic beneath the A2 before joining the carriageway via a merge section. An overview of

the modelled Paramics network is shown in Figure 5.1 below:

Figure 5.1 PARAMICS Model Extent

JMP

5.3 This model has been calibrated to 2013 traffic data providing a robust base model on which future

year scenarios can be reliably tested.

5.4 A Model Calibration and Validation report has been submitted to and approved by Amey on behalf

of RS. Amey has provided detailed comments regarding the Base Calibration Paramics model

which JMP has considered and determined how to proceed. The exchange of information between

parties is included in Appendix A.

Modelled Scenarios

5.5 Following discussions with RS and Amey a number of modelling scenarios were required to be

undertaken. Those scenarios are as follows:



29

2013 Base;

2025 Without Modification Scenario (with SFS);

2025 With Modification Scenario (without SFS); and

2030 A2 widening sensitivity test.

5.6 The turning movement diagrams for the scenarios indicated are included in Appendix D.

Time Periods

5.7 The following time periods have been modelled to coincide with the network AM and PM peak

flows as well as during the time of maximum impact on the network:

AM period (0700-1000); and

PM period (1600-1900).

5.8 The tables in Appendix J show the flows for the AM and PM periods described above.

Calibration

5.9 The base model has been calibrated using traffic data collected throughout the duration of the day,

from 0600-2200. While the key model time periods are the AM and PM periods indicated above,

calibration was performed on each hourly period separately. The full calibration and validation

report is included in Appendix K.

5.10 The associated modelling files are included in CD format attached to this TR.

Paramics Outputs

5.11 Paramics outputs statistics have been reported for the whole of the network, providing a useful

guide to the overall performance of the model. Five different sets of statistics have been collected

and these are explained as follows:

Total Trips – Total number of vehicles travelling through the network;

Total Travel Time (hrs) – total travel time of all vehicles completing trips in the network;

Mean Distance (m) – mean distance travelled of vehicles;

Mean Travel Time – mean travel time of all vehicles completing trips in the network; and

Mean Speed (mph) – mean speed of all vehicles completing trips in the network;

5.12 The results of the various scenario tests are included in the following sections along with any

changes required to mitigate impact of the traffic generated by the ‘project.’

Base Paramics Results

5.13 The Base Paramics results for the 2013 and 2025 scenarios have been modelled assuming that

there is no change in the road network surrounding GB BCA. As previously described the 2030

sensitivity test is based on the assumption that the A2 widening scheme has been completed.

Tables 5.1 to 5.3 below indicate the results of these models run for the whole of the model period.



Table 5.1 GB BCA Paramics Network Summary Results

Scenario Total Trips

Total Travel Time (hrs)

Mean Speed (mph)

Mean Travel Time (mm:ss)

Mean Distance (m)

2013 Calibrated Base

64,918 1,086.6 41.9 01:00 1,126

2025 Without Modification

70,220 1,278.2 38.4 01:06 1,122

2025 With modification

70,984 1,543.6 32.0 01:18 1,119

2030 With modification and A2 widening

72,404 1,116.0 44.8 00:55 1,110

Table 5.2 GB BCA Paramics Network Summary Results (AM Peak)



Mean Speed (mph)


Mean Distance (m)


5,583 90 44 00:58 1,143


6,307 103.64 43.3 00:59 1,144


6,410 107.3 42.3 01:00 1,139


6,670 104.7 44.7 00:56 1,129

Table 5.3 GB BCA Paramics Network Summary Results (PM Peak)



Mean Speed (mph)


Mean Distance (m)


6,219 125.2 35.4 01:12 1,147


7,361 197.8 26.2 01:37 1,132


7,391 289.3 17.9 02:21 1,128


7,818 141.8 38.1 01:05 1,113



31

5.14 As can be seen from the results in the Table 5.1 above the 2030 scenario i.e. with the A2 widened

to 3 lanes in both directions and ‘project’ traffic the network will operate satisfactorily and will

actually provide betterment against the 2013 base in all categories.

5.15 It is recognised that in the interim period before the widening of the A2 Sydenham Bypass that the

‘project’ will impact on the road network and this has been investigated in more detail from

paragraph 5.19.

5.16 RS have requested that a no net detriment situation should be achieved. The comparison to be

considered is the 2025 Without Modification scenario, as this would occur independently of the

proposed modification and the 2025 With Modification. The results for the 2025 scenarios indicate

that in all categories a no net detriment situation is not achieved between the ‘Without Modification

and the With Modification scenarios and that there is a case of disadvantage to traffic travelling

along the A2.

5.17 Further inspections of the results indicate that without the A2 widening scheme the detriment may

occur during the PM peak period. This is shown clearly in the travel time graphs in Figures 5.2 and

5.3 below.

Figure 5.2 Travel Time Results for A2 Northbound

JMP



Figure 5.3 Travel Time Results for A2 Southbound

JMP

5.18 The analysis confirms that there is no net detriment in 2030 with the DRD proposed improvement

to the A2 in place. However, mitigation may be required to ameliorate the impact of the proposed

development by 2025 if the A2 is not improved as planned. As a key stakeholder and a land use

with an access directly onto the A2, GB BCA will engage fully with RS in the Stage 3 of the A2

widening project and discuss the scope for and timing of interim improvements to facilitate the

‘project’ traffic. It is anticipated that there may be the potential for phased mitigation measures

which would accommodate various anticipated ‘step changes’ in aircraft movements and

associated traffic flows identified by York Aviation.

Mitigation Measures

5.19 In order to demonstrate that options are available to achieve no net detriment within currently

available land, various mitigation measures were tested. The tests indicated that the following

mitigation measure would provide a no net detriment case.

Initially extending the existing right turn lane into the airport and thereafter delivering a ‘2

Lanes Right Turn’ solution i.e. two right turn lanes into the airport which increases the right

turn capacity and allows a reduction in the frequency of hurry calls at the signals.

5.20 Other options may be available and the airport keeps its access strategy under constant review.

Mitigation Paramics Results

5.21 It was evident from the Paramics tests that ‘no net detriment’ for the 2025 With Modification

(without SFS) scenario against the 2025 Without Modification (with SFS) scenario could be

achieved through the provision of two right turn lanes on the A2 for entry into the airport.



33

5.22 Figures 5.4 and 5.5 below show the impacts of the mitigation measures on travel times through the

network. All modelling outputs are included in Appendix K.

Figure 5.4 Travel Time Results for Mitigation Measures on A2 Northbound

JMP



Figure 5.5 Travel Time Results for Mitigation Measures on A2 Southbound

JMP

5.23 It is evident from the testing undertaken that even in the absence of the planned A2 upgrade, a no

net detriment situation can be provided with the provision of a two lane right turn into GB BCA at

the current access. There may also be other options and discussions with RS on integration with

their A2 plans will take place.

Preliminary Design of Identified Physical Mitigation

5.24 In order for an understanding of the impact of the potential physical mitigation a preliminary

drawing of two lane right turn island is indicated in Figure 5.6 below and is included in Appendix L,

along with the drawings provided by RS for the A2 improvements.



35

Figure 5.6 Preliminary Design

JMP

5.25 The potential mitigation measure could involve the following changes to the junction and layout to

the A2:

Provision of an 8 PCU long (approximately 50m), 3m wide second lane for turning right into

GB BCA on the southbound carriageway;

Retention of left turn lane and the ‘Give Way’ markings for vehicles turning left into GB

BCA on the northbound carriageway;

Offset the northbound carriageway by 1.5m to the east for approximately 250m in front of

GB BCA to include all of the left turn lane into the airport and the merge taper for vehicles

turning left on exit from GB BCA; and

Internal modification to two lanes on the access road into the airport with associated

localised widening.

5.26 These physical changes would result in a ‘no net detriment’ situation. However, alternative

solutions will be explored further with RS to ensure that the most appropriate method of

accommodating any potential changes in airport flows would be provided.

5.27 The need to engage with RS in respect of integration with the ongoing work on the A2 strategic

improvement project will be essential before any future works are delivered. Depending on the

timing of the delivery of the A2 widening a phased approach to any required mitigation measures

would be a viable way forward.



6 Proposed Supporting Transport Measures

6.1 While recognising that the modification to the planning agreement is not subject to the same

transport related requirements of a new development seeking planning approval, this chapter

provides a general set of recommendations to improve the integration of the airport with the

surrounding area by all modes of transport. JMP recognise that these recommendations are

outside of the requirements to address the proposed modification. It is also recognised that if such

measures are considered by GB BCA, they should do so in consultation with RS Cycle Officer and

Translink.

6.2 It is recognised that the majority of passengers travelling to GB BCA will arrive by vehicle either as

a passenger or driver. This is unlikely to change in the future due to the requirements of travel e.g.

luggage, distances travelled to access flights, which make other modes significantly less attractive.

Notwithstanding this there will be opportunities to provide for and encourage more sustainable

travel choices, generally public transport or car sharing.

6.3 With regard to staff, it will be possible to encourage staff to make more sustainable travel choices

which can be incorporated into their journey to work. There is potential through the use of a vibrant

and active Travel Plan to encourage staff to change their travel behaviour. This is also likely to

have to be supported by physical improvement measures to better support walk and cycle trips.

Travel Plan

6.4 While recognising that it is not a requirement of the process to provide a Travel Plan, JMP

recommend that GB BCA take the opportunity to develop a strong and active Travel Plan. The

plan would generally be focussed on supporting and developing staff travel choices to encourage

more sustainable travel and also improve accessibility to the site for non-car users.

6.5 It is recognised that the sustainable (walk and cycle) options available for passengers will be

limited. However, the Travel Plan can seek to identify opportunities to support non-car based

passenger movements to and from the site and reduce lone driver access

Walking and Cycling

6.6 It is recognised that walking and cycling will not be a viable mode for the majority of passengers

using the site. However, as indicated above, walking and cycling would be viable options for some

staff. As highlighted in Section 3 of this report there are good cycle links connecting the airport to

Belfast and towards Holywood and Bangor. In addition there are good walking links via foot

bridges to the Sydenham and Belmont residential areas to the west of the A2 affording the

opportunities for staff living in these areas to use walking and cycling as their main mode of travel

to work.

6.7 JMP have referred to the IHT publication, “Guidelines for Providing for Journeys On-Foot”, (2000)

to determine the opportunities to encourage a higher proportion of walk related trips to and from

BCA. The section of Table 3.2 of the guidelines is replicated in Table 6.1 below:



37

Table 6.1 IHT Guidelines - Suggested Acceptable Walking Distance

Employment

Desirable 500m

Acceptable 1000m

Preferred Maximum 2000m

IHT Guidelines for Providing for Journeys On-Foot (Table 3.2)

6.8 The guidelines also recommend adopting a walk speed of 1.4m/second for pedestrians when

assessing walk time.

6.9 JMP have also referred to the IHT’s ‘Cycle-Friendly Infrastructure - Guidelines for Planning and

Design’ (1997) to determine opportunities to encourage a higher proportion of cycle related trips to

and from GB BCA. The guidelines suggest that a distance of 4km or approximately 30 minutes is

within the capability of a reasonably fit person and is a distance that is commonly derived from

other best practice with regard to cycling. In general a significant section of Greater Belfast and in

particular the residential sections of East Belfast are within the recommended walking and cycling

distances.

Table 6.2 Walk and Cycle Time by Distance

Distance (Metres) Walk Time (Minutes) Cycle Time (Minutes)

500m 6 mins 2 mins

1000m 12 mins 4 mins



Internal Layout

6.10 The final design of the internal development, indicated in the parameters plans, will be designed to

maximise and promote the safe movement of pedestrians and cyclists. The enhanced internal

road infrastructure will include for completed cycle and walk links between the A2 Sydenham By-

pass and terminal building, focussing on routes for staff.

6.11 In addition, GB BCA will revisit the quantity, quality and location of cycle parking facilities, staff

lockers and showers, as likely to be identified as an appropriate requirement in any emerging

Travel Plan.

6.12 The new physical linkage and improved facilities, together with the positive support and active

encouragement of a Travel Plan will encourage staff to utilise cycling and walking as a means of

travel to work and physically reduce conflict between pedestrians and cyclists within the site in

comparison to the current situation.

Public Transport

6.13 The public transport provision to and from the site is focussed on linking the application site with

Belfast City Centre. It is recognised that the earliest buses will arrive at GB BCA is 0558 and latest

they leave is 2105 and therefore whilst their use should be encouraged amongst staff, those staff

on early morning or late evening shift patterns do not have public transport access to the airport.



6.14 With regard to a Travel Plan, the possibility of providing an opportunity to purchase discounted

Travel Cards or interest free loans for the purchase of long term travel cards will be considered.

Staff notice boards will have regularly reviewed up to date public transport information readily

accessible which will include bus timetables, bus routes and promotional leaflets.

6.15 In addition for passengers the same information should be displayed in dedicated racks in

prominent locations around the proposed site. Discussions will also take place with the various

airlines about providing information on public transport options to the site when booking tickets.

Parking Provision

6.16 Parameter plans to demonstrate how it is possible to achieve an enhancement of parking facilities

throughout the site is shown in Table 6.3 below. The calculations informing the car parking

requirements are described in section 4 above and detailed in Appendix E.

Table 6.3 Car Parking Changes

Car Park Future Capacity Change From Existing

Short Stay 395 - 59

Long Stay 2 166 + 902

PU/DO 41 + 21

Fast Track 273 No Change

Car Hire 402 + 23

Staff 376 +376

Total 3 653 +1 263

JMP

Access

6.17 JMP has undertaken detailed traffic modelling of the main access junction as reported in Section 5

above. The modelling results indicated that by 2025 With Modification scenario (without SFS)

mitigation measures at the access would be required to ensure a no net detriment situation unless

the DRD strategic improvement has been delivered. As noted above, one option for mitigation to

be discussed with RS is an adjustment to the right turn lane on the A2. That option would involve

the following changes to the junction and layout to the A2 and is indicated in Appendix L:

Provision of an 8 PCU long 3m wide second lane for turning right into GB BCA on the

southbound carriageway;







localised widening.

6.18 As a further sensitivity test, JMP has undertaken a year 2030 assessment, with the proposed 3

land widening of Sydenham by-pass in place and maintaining the current one right turn lane access



39

arrangement as proposed above. Again, the traffic modelling confirms that the junction will operate

satisfactorily even under these robust flow conditions.

6.19 These physical changes would result in a ‘no net detriment’ arising from the ‘project’. However,

alternative solutions will be explored further with RS to ensure that the most appropriate method of

accommodating the potential changes in airport flows would be provided.



7 Conclusions

7.1 JMP Consultants Ltd (JMP) was commissioned by GB BCA to undertake an assessment of the

traffic and transport effects of the proposed modification to the planning agreement in place for GB

BCA. While it is acknowledged that the proposed variation in the planning agreement would not

require a full Transport Assessment (TA), it was considered that the provision of a Transport

Report (TR), prepared generally in accordance with the requirements of a TA, as defined by the

DRD Roads Service NI Guidelines, would be of assistance.

7.2 An assessment of the possible environmental implications of the proposed variation has been

provided within the associated environmental statement.

7.3 Scoping discussions were held with RS and these discussions formed the basis of the

methodology for this report.

7.4 The policy context within Northern Ireland aims for a more sustainable transport future which will

reduce the reliance on the private vehicle as a mode of transport and will encourage the more

sustainable modes. Translating the requirements of the traffic element of the NI Guidelines,

developments require to demonstrate no net detriment to other road users.

Trip Generation

7.5 The 2025 With Modification scenario (without SFS) is based on future estimated increased

passenger numbers, flight changes and aircraft type change over time. This is forecast to occur by

2025 as per the York Aviation analysis explained more fully in Chapter 4 of the environmental

statement.

7.6 The changes in the passenger numbers arriving and leaving the site will impact on the future year

traffic profile. The trip generation methodology based on empirical data is defined within section 4

of this report but can be summarised as follows:

Comparison of existing and future passenger movements against flight schedule;

Application of site arrival and departure time offsets;

Application of Mode Share/Vehicle Occupancy factors applied; and

Uplift factor to account for non-passenger, ancillary airport related traffic movements.

7.7 Using the methodology above the following three scenarios were produced:

Calculation of traffic movements associated with existing summer schedule;

Calculation of traffic movements associated with 2025 Without Modification Scenario(with

SFS); and

Calculation of traffic movements associated with the ‘project’ or the ‘With Modification

Scenario (without SFS).

7.8 The traffic flow scenario for the 2025 With Modification Scenario (without SFS) is considered as the

worst case traffic flows.



41

Transport Measures to Support the Development

7.9 It is recognised that the majority of passengers travelling to GB BCA will arrive by vehicle either as

a passenger or driver. This is unlikely to change in the future due to the requirements of travel e.g.

luggage, distances travelled to access flights, which make other modes significantly less attractive.

Notwithstanding, there will be opportunities to further encourage more sustainable travel patterns in

terms of public transport and car sharing.

7.10 JMP also recommend that GB BCA consider encouraging staff to use more sustainable travel

patterns for their journey to work. There is potential to achieve change through use of a vibrant and

active Travel Plan to encourage staff to change their travel behaviour.

7.11 These measures could include the following:

Improved walk and cycle links and connections internal to the site which link with the A2;

Improved internal cycle facilities including bike storage and staff shower and locker

facilities;

Improved Public Transport Information; and

Enhanced Parking provision and management.

7.12 All these measures are aimed at making the site more accessible. It would be considered good

practice that an updated Travel Plan would be produced to support the increase in both passenger

and staff numbers.

Traffic Impact Assessment

7.13 A Paramics micro-simulation model has been used to assess the effect of the ‘project.’ The

assessment has identified that with changes to the internal road and parking arrangements, plus

enhanced measures at the main access junction with the A2 Sydenham by-pass, any ‘project’

related traffic impacts can be mitigated with no net detriment to other road users. The assessment

has confirmed that even without the delivery of RS’s proposed widening of the A2, the junction

would operate satisfactorily in the 2025 With Modification scenario (without SFS) with the following

mitigation measures (although other options are available).

Provision of an 8 PCU long 3m wide second lane for turning right into GB BCA on the

southbound carriageway;







localised widening.



A1

Appendix A

Engagement with DRD Roads Service / Amey


B2 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

Appendix B

Traffic Survey Data



C1

Appendix C

Validation of Assumptions


D2 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

Appendix D

Network Diagrams



E3

Appendix E

Parking


F4 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

Appendix F

A2 & NRTF Analysis



G5

Appendix G

Committed Developments


H6 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

Appendix H

Scenario Analysis



I7

Appendix I

Flight Schedules


J8 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

Appendix J

AM & PM 3 Hour Modelling Periods



K9

Appendix K

Paramics Modelling


L10 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

Appendix L

Preliminary Design



M11

Appendix M

Flow Charts


N12 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement

Appendix N

Accident Data

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