George Beyrouthi’s editorial: 27/08/2014 Gold and the US Dollar move in different direction (part2)? From early 2003, the US dollar strengthened from 79.2 (a US dollar index that comprises several major currencies around the world) to 85 a rise of nearly 7.5%. During that same time gold dropped by 26% from 1676 to 1236 US per OZ. Then we saw another negative correlation around June when the US dollar drops and Gold climbed back from 1236 to a high point of 1400. Few minutes ago it was trading around 1280. Besides the technical analysis there are other factors that make a market. I will briefly attempt to explain our views on two of fundamental factor that moves the gold market. I previously shared with you the technical factors, using charting.
Transcript
George Beyrouthi’s editorial: 27/08/2014
Gold and the US Dollar move in different direction (part2)?
From early 2003, the US dollar strengthened from 79.2 (a US dollar index that comprises several major currencies around the world) to 85 a rise of nearly 7.5%. During that same time gold dropped by 26% from 1676 to 1236 US per OZ. Then we saw another negative correlation around June when the US dollar drops and Gold climbed back from 1236 to a high point of 1400. Few minutes ago it was trading around 1280.
Besides the technical analysis there are other factors that make a market. I will briefly attempt to explain our views on two of fundamental factor that moves the gold market. I previously shared with you the technical factors, using charting.
Gold and the US dollar have a negative correlation “AT TIMES”. One goes up, the other goes down. As you can see here
However this is not sacrosanct. As you can see here in the big picture over a number of years.
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Our predictions? What I predicted (at end January 2014):
- XJO (ASX 200) has about 200 points further to
go (up) in January the XJO was 5190
Next 3 months (at end May 2014) - XJO (ASX 200) Resistance around 5600 (+100),
Support around 5100 (-300)
- Gold to trade between 1250 and 1350 US/Oz (no
change from prediction in Jan 2014)
- The Australian dollar to remain weak and hover
around the 88 to 93 US cents (no change)
Next 3 months (at end July 2014)
- XJO (ASX 200) Resistance around 5750 (+100),
Support around 5350 (-300)
- Gold to trade between 1250 and 1350 US/Oz
- The Australian dollar to remain 88 to 93 US cents
Offshore Markets & Businesses Overnight and from around the globe we start with Wall Street where US stocks rose, sending the broader S&P 500 Index to close above 2,000 for the first time, as reports showed the biggest ever jump in durable-goods orders and better than expected increase in consumer confidence. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 2000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 29 points, or 0.2% to 17,106.
European major markets climbed up 1% and finished at 3197. In London, the FT100 index rose 0.7% at 6823. In Japan, the Nikkei Index fell 0.6% at 15,521. In China, the Shanghai index fell 0.8% to 2324. On the commodities; Gold a short time ago was trading at $1280 US/Oz up $5 overnight. Silver, closed this morning at $19.39 steady. Crude Oil was at 93.78 US/barrel up 40 cents. Copper, the world’s economic barometer was at 321 c/lb down 0.9%. Iron ore, which is important for our miners such as BHP, RIO, Atlas Iron and Fortescue, down 0.3% at $88.90 US /tonne. On the currencies, The Aussie dollar was at 93.05 US cents, 96.86 Japanese yen, 70.65 Euro cents and 56.25 British pence. These are intra banks rates. On our market yesterday, the benchmark ASX 200 Index was up 2.7 points, or 0.05% at 5637.6. The best performers amongst the leaders: LEI and SUN both up 0.9%. The worst performers: RIO and STO both down 0.7% On the local news today Earnings from Boral, Charter Hall, Flight Centre, Lend Lease, Sandfire, Senex Energy, Veda Group, Whitehaven Coal, WorleyParsons, Australia construction work done June quarter; China Westpac-MNI consumer sentiment; US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Local shares are set to open higher bolstered by the S&P 500 in New York which has closed above the 2000 mark for the first time on more good economic data The futures contract was up 12 points indicating a positive start to the market this morning. Source: Yahoo, Bloomberg, SMH, ninemsn and AFR
Global announcements Updated on Wednesday, August 27, 2014
The full report has now shifted to Our Trades and Our Picks Report for subscribers!!!
FS Securities Picks On 26/08/2014 (updated):
Western Areas Limited (WSA) $ 4.72 On 18/08/2014 (updated): Oil Search Limited (OSH) $9.44 - Net profit up 34% to US$152.5 million On 13/08/2014 (new): Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited (DMP) $23.78 – DMP announced a full-year net profit after tax result of $45.8 million, a 50.4 per cent rise on the prior year On 01/08/2014 (updated):
Kathmandu Holdings Limited (KMD) $3.12 - colder weather in July will help the company recover a significant portion of the shortfall in sales revenue On 31/07/2014 (new): APA Group (APA) $7.48- APA will develop a new pipeline in the Goldfields region of Western Australia On 28/07/2014 (updated): Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (FLT) $46.96- the expected profit result is 9%-10% above the record $343.1million profit achieved in 2012/13 On 24/07/2014 (new):
Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) $60.00 - the bank’s 2015 financial year result will be in line with last year’s annual net profit of $1.27 billion. On 24/06/2014 (updated):
AWE Limited (AWE) $1.84 On 22/05/2014 (updated on 28/05/2014):
James Hardie Industries (JHX) $14.00 On 22/04/2014 (updated on 26/05/2014):
CSR Limited (CSR) $3.40
FS Securities Trades On 25/08/2014: S&P/ASX 200: INDEX (XJO) $5,630 – Iron Condor strategy On 20/08/2014: CSL Limited (CSL) $72.75 – Iron Condor strategy –UPDATED- Iron Condor strategy (Call Spread was rolled over due to increase in the stock price) On 12/08/2014: Rio Tinto limited (RIO) $67.60 – Iron Condor strategy On 08/08/2014: Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) $34.50 – Naked Put On 08/08/2014: Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ANZ) $32.90 –UPDATED- Iron Condor strategy (Put Spread was rolled over due to decrease in the stock price) On 04/08/2014: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) $82.60 – Iron Condor strategy On 30/07/2014: Macquarie Group Limited (MQG) $58.00 – Iron Condor strategy
Note: the following picks are not necessarily trades that FS Securities are currently trading. They are offered as suggestions only. Please check with your broker first before trading.
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Indices and Commodities
GOLD Gold rose the most in more than two weeks as
tensions flared on the border between Ukraine and Russia, increasing demand for the precious metal as a haven. This year, gold has gained 6.9 percent on turbulence in the Gaza region, Iraq and Eastern Europe coupled with signs of slowing global economic growth. The conflict between Ukraine’s government and pro-Russian separatists has left more than 2,000 dead since Putin annexed Crimea in March. Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to settle at $1,285.20 an ounce at 1:40 p.m. on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Aug. 6. Trading was 21 percent below the average for the past 100 days for this time, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
(Source: bloomberg.com)
SILVER: Silver futures for December delivery gained 0.1
percent to $19.459 an ounce on the Comex, the first advance in four sessions.
(Source: bloomberg.com)
CRUDE OIL: West Texas Intermediate oil climbed as U.S.
durable goods data and consumer confidence boosted economic optimism, while analysts forecast crude supplies fell. WTI for October delivery increased 51 cents to $93.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures dropped to $93.35 yesterday, the lowest close since Jan. 14. The volume of all futures traded was 33 percent below the 100-day average at 4:42 p.m. Volume totaled 244,240 contracts yesterday, the lowest since Dec. 26, data compiled
by Bloomberg showed. (Source: bloomberg.com)
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
Advances, Declines and Volume
Analysts rating changes: Stocks to watch (source SMH) James Packer’s Crown Resorts has squeezed a 17-year extension on its Melbourne casino licence out of the Victorian state government. Medibank Private is considering potential retail incentive structures to entice mum and dad shareholders to participate in the group’s expected $4 billion float. Shaw Stockbroking has a kept its “sell” recommendation on engineering services company Monadelphous Group and rates it “high risk” with a price target of $15.60 a share. RBC Capital Markets maintained an “outperform” on Fortescue Metals Group with a price target of $6.00 a share after it reported 2014 financial results.
FS Securities recommendations for US market
Commodities and FX
ASX sectors and equities
FS Securities details stock picks
Ask for a copy if you would like to see the list.
ASX weekly market advances and declines Average Advances over total rose over 30 days from 50.5% recently to 52% (50.5/ 50.6/ 50/ 47.9/ last 4 weeks)
Gainers and Most Active by volume
NOTES: ASX stocks show the daily changes.
if shown in red, they indicate a fall.
Best and worst performing stocks (source:smh.com) Last
Day before
Day before
Sectors Performance
By looking at the above table readers will notice where the direction of the market has been on the day.
Last from low: Blue = closed in the top half of the day’s range.
Net Change is the daily movement in points.
% Change represents the daily movement in %.aud
WEEK ON WEEK CHANGE (and over two weeks as well)
OVERSEAS INDICES, FX AND COMMODITIES
WEEK ON WEEK CHANGE (and over two weeks as well) AUSSIE MARKET
Mini charts - Commodities and US markets
THE GRAPHS SHOW HOW FROM AN INDEX OF 100 SOME 52 WEEKS AGO THE VARIOUS INDICES OR COMMODITIES HAVE MOVED.
Sectors
THE ABOVE GRAPHS SHOW HOW FROM AN INDEX OF 100 SOME 52 WEEKS AGO THE VARIOUS ASX SECTORS HAVE MOVED.
Major stocks
Upcoming Dividends by date
1 Ex Div Date Symbol Name
Franked %
Current Div
Amount
Div Rate Per
Share Div Yield
% Last Type
2 26/08/2014 ORG ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED 0 0.25 0.5 3.336 14.99 Final 3 26/08/2014 EAX ENERGY ACTION LIMITED 100 0.036 0.074 2.634 2.79 Final
5 26/08/2014 IRI INTEGRATED RESEARCH LIMITED 35 0.025 0.05 5.076 0.985 Final 6 26/08/2014 TRG TREASURY GROUP LIMITED 100 0.27 0.5 4.545 11 Final 7 27/08/2014 WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED 100 1.189 2.338 5.297 44.14 Interim 8 27/08/2014 TPI TRANSPACIFIC INDUSTRIES GROUP LTD 100 0.015 0.015 1.639 0.915 Final 9 27/08/2014 PRY PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED 100 0.11 0.2 4.348 4.6 Final
10 27/08/2014 HGG HENDERSON GROUP PLC. 0 TBA 0.143 3.462 4.13 Interim 11 27/08/2014 QBE QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED 100 0.15 0.27 2.368 11.4 Interim 12 27/08/2014 STO SANTOS LIMITED 100 0.2 0.35 2.319 15.09 Interim 13 27/08/2014 TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED. 100 0.15 0.295 5.139 5.74 Final 14 27/08/2014 OKN OAKTON LIMITED 100 0.04 0.08 4.199 1.905 Final 15 27/08/2014 BGL BIGAIR GROUP LIMITED 100 0.011 0.021 2.154 0.975 Final 16 27/08/2014 WTP WATPAC LIMITED 13 0.035 0.06 6.122 0.98 Final 17 28/08/2014 CMG CHANDLER MACLEOD GROUP LIMITED 100 0.018 0.032 7.805 0.41 Final 18 28/08/2014 CMI CMI LIMITED. 100 0.03 0.06 3.822 1.57 Final 19 28/08/2014 BGA BEGA CHEESE LIMITED 100 0.045 0.085 1.667 5.1 Final 20 28/08/2014 VET VOCATION LIMITED 100 0.032 0 0 3.05 Final 21 28/08/2014 ANN ANSELL LIMITED 0 0.236 0.419 2.077 20.15 Final 22 28/08/2014 NVT NAVITAS LIMITED 100 0.101 0.195 3.558 5.48 Final 23 28/08/2014 SUL SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED 100 0.215 0.4 4.154 9.63 Final 24 28/08/2014 IIN IINET LIMITED 100 0.13 0.22 2.736 8.04 Final 25 28/08/2014 MOC MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED 100 0.08 0.155 5.184 2.99 Final 26 28/08/2014 AIO ASCIANO LIMITED 100 0.085 0.143 2.23 6.39 Final 27 28/08/2014 PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED 100 0.2 0.34 5.405 6.29 Final 28 28/08/2014 MRN MACQUARIE RADIO NETWORK LIMITED 100 0.05 0.1 8.696 1.15 Final
Dividends are payments made by a corporation to its shareholder members. It is the portion of corporate profits paid out to stockholders.[1]
When a corporation earns a profit or surplus, that money can be put to two uses: it can either be re-invested in the business (called retained earnings), or it can be distributed to shareholders. There are two ways to distribute cash to shareholders: share repurchases or dividends.
[2][3] Many corporations retain a portion of their earnings and pay the remainder as a dividend.
2 28/08/2014 MRN MACQUARIE RADIO NETWORK LIMITED 100 0.05 0.1 8.696 1.15 Final 3 28/08/2014 CMG CHANDLER MACLEOD GROUP LIMITED 100 0.018 0.032 7.805 0.41 Final 4 3/09/2014 CYG COVENTRY GROUP LIMITED 100 0.11 0.22 6.918 3.18 Final 5 1/09/2014 SGN STW COMMUNICATIONS GROUP LIMITED 100 0.033 0.086 6.667 1.29 Interim 6 27/08/2014 WTP WATPAC LIMITED 13 0.035 0.06 6.122 0.98 Final 7 26/08/2014 CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED 75 0.2 0.52 5.733 9.07 Interim 8 1/09/2014 HFA HFA HOLDINGS LIMITED 0 0.054 0.087 5.583 1.56 Final 9 28/08/2014 PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED 100 0.2 0.34 5.405 6.29 Final
10 27/08/2014 WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED 100 1.189 2.338 5.297 44.14 Interim 11 28/08/2014 MOC MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED 100 0.08 0.155 5.184 2.99 Final 12 1/09/2014 MYT MIGHTY RIVER POWER LIMITED 0 TBA 0.111 5.144 2.16 Final 13 27/08/2014 TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED. 100 0.15 0.295 5.139 5.74 Final 14 26/08/2014 IRI INTEGRATED RESEARCH LIMITED 35 0.025 0.05 5.076 0.985 Final 15 1/09/2014 TOL TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED 100 0.15 0.28 4.836 5.79 Final 16 3/09/2014 ASX ASX LIMITED 100 0.899 1.781 4.815 36.99 Final 17 1/09/2014 FMG FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD 100 0.1 0.2 4.673 4.28 Final 18 26/08/2014 TRG TREASURY GROUP LIMITED 100 0.27 0.5 4.545 11 Final 19 2/09/2014 AGK AGL ENERGY LIMITED 100 0.33 0.63 4.481 14.06 Final 20 27/08/2014 PRY PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED 100 0.11 0.2 4.348 4.6 Final 21 2/09/2014 AHD AMALGAMATED HOLDINGS LIMITED 100 0.27 0.42 4.264 9.85 Final 22 29/08/2014 WES WESFARMERS LIMITED 100 1.15 1.9 4.26 44.6 Final 23 27/08/2014 OKN OAKTON LIMITED 100 0.04 0.08 4.199 1.905 Final 24 28/08/2014 SUL SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED 100 0.215 0.4 4.154 9.63 Final 25 3/09/2014 AMP AMP LIMITED 70 0.125 0.24 4.075 5.89 Interim 26 1/09/2014 TTS TATTS GROUP LIMITED 100 0.055 0.135 4.018 3.36 Final 27 28/08/2014 CMI CMI LIMITED. 100 0.03 0.06 3.822 1.57 Final 28 1/09/2014 IFM INFOMEDIA LTD 100 0.019 0.038 3.78 1 Final
Dividends are payments made by a corporation to its shareholder members. It is the portion of corporate profits paid out to stockholders.[1]
When a corporation earns a profit or surplus, that money can be put to two uses: it can either be re-invested in the business (called retained earnings), or it can be distributed to shareholders. There are two ways to distribute cash to shareholders: share repurchases or dividends.
[2][3] Many corporations retain a portion of their earnings and pay the remainder as a dividend.
2 2/09/2014 AGK AGL ENERGY LIMITED 100 0.33 0.63 4.481 14.06 Final 3 2/09/2014 AHD AMALGAMATED HOLDINGS LIMITED 100 0.27 0.42 4.264 9.85 Final 4 2/09/2014 AMC AMCOR LIMITED 0 0.235 0.43 3.775 11.39 Final 5 3/09/2014 AMP AMP LIMITED 70 0.125 0.24 4.075 5.89 Interim
6 28/08/2014 ANN ANSELL LIMITED 0 0.236 0.419 2.077 20.15 Final 7 28/08/2014 AIO ASCIANO LIMITED 100 0.085 0.143 2.23 6.39 Final 8 3/09/2014 ASX ASX LIMITED 100 0.899 1.781 4.815 36.99 Final 9 29/08/2014 AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED 0 0.085 0.165 3.423 4.82 Final
10 2/09/2014 BLX BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED 100 0.014 0 0 1.155 Final 11 28/08/2014 BGA BEGA CHEESE LIMITED 100 0.045 0.085 1.667 5.1 Final 12 27/08/2014 BGL BIGAIR GROUP LIMITED 100 0.011 0.021 2.154 0.975 Final 13 29/08/2014 CIN CARLTON INVESTMENTS LIMITED 100 0.63 1 3.422 29.22 Final 14 29/08/2014 CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED 40 0.135 0.26 3.291 7.9 Final 15 28/08/2014 CMG CHANDLER MACLEOD GROUP LIMITED 100 0.018 0.032 7.805 0.41 Final 16 28/08/2014 CMI CMI LIMITED. 100 0.03 0.06 3.822 1.57 Final 17 26/08/2014 CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED 75 0.2 0.52 5.733 9.07 Interim
18 2/09/2014 COH COCHLEAR LIMITED 20 1.27 2.54 3.6 70.55 Final 19 3/09/2014 CYG COVENTRY GROUP LIMITED 100 0.11 0.22 6.918 3.18 Final 20 26/08/2014 EAX ENERGY ACTION LIMITED 100 0.036 0.074 2.634 2.79 Final 21 1/09/2014 FMG FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD 100 0.1 0.2 4.673 4.28 Final 22 27/08/2014 HGG HENDERSON GROUP PLC. 0 TBA 0.143 3.462 4.13 Interim
23 1/09/2014 HFA HFA HOLDINGS LIMITED 0 0.054 0.087 5.583 1.56 Final 24 28/08/2014 IIN IINET LIMITED 100 0.13 0.22 2.736 8.04 Final 25 1/09/2014 IFM INFOMEDIA LTD 100 0.019 0.038 3.78 1 Final 26 26/08/2014 IRI INTEGRATED RESEARCH LIMITED 35 0.025 0.05 5.076 0.985 Final 27 28/08/2014 MRN MACQUARIE RADIO NETWORK LIMITED 100 0.05 0.1 8.696 1.15 Final 28 1/09/2014 MYT MIGHTY RIVER POWER LIMITED 0 TBA 0.111 5.144 2.16 Final
Dividends are payments made by a corporation to its shareholder members. It is the portion of corporate profits paid out to stockholders.[1] When a corporation earns a profit or surplus, that money can be put to two uses: it can either be re-invested in the business (called retained earnings), or it can be distributed to shareholders. There are two ways to distribute cash to shareholders: share repurchases or dividends.[2][3] Many corporations retain a portion of their earnings and pay the remainder as a dividend.
A dividend is allocated as a fixed amount per share. Therefore, a shareholder receives a dividend in proportion to their shareholding. For the joint stock company, paying dividends is not an expense; rather, it is the division of after tax profits among shareholders. Retained earnings (profits that have not been distributed as dividends) are shown in the shareholder equity section in the company's balance sheet - the same as its issued share capital. Public companies usually pay dividends on a fixed schedule, but may declare a dividend at any time, sometimes called a special dividend to distinguish it from the fixed schedule dividends.
Dividends are usually paid in the form of cash and shares in the company (either newly created shares or existing shares bought in the market.) Further, many public companies offer dividend reinvestment plans, which automatically use the cash dividend to purchase additional shares for the shareholder. Source: From Wikipedia, the free encyclopaedia.
Did you know that FS Securities can help you with any Real Estate needs? Why deal with us? Because we can help you provide a bridging loan at a reasonable rate and provide you which choices in properties across Australia for investment.
We learnt that in Sydney the property median price has escalated by 12% above the all-time high level. In Melbourne it has moved up by 8 to 9% above the all-time high. In Queensland the median price is still 7 or 8% below the all-time high. RP Data Rismark figures recently showed Sydney home prices rose 2.5 per cent last month and 5.2 per cent in the last quarter. Melbourne also rose 2.4 per cent in a month and 5 per cent in the quarter.
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GENERAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER this document has been prepared for the general information of investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. Persons intending to act on information in this document should seek professional advice to confirm that the investments or strategies mentioned are appropriate in the light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances prior to taking any action. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error free and there is a risk messages may be corrupted, intercepted or lost in transmission. Therefore we do not accept liability for any viruses, errors or omissions in the contents of this message or attachments which arise as a result of email transmission. Statements contained in this email are general only and do not take into account the particular needs, objectives, financial circumstances or investment preferences of any person. George Beyrouthi is an Authorised Representative (AR# 315 563) of FS Securities (QLD) Pty Ltd AFSL# 410 183.
