George R. MY0418

~ MANAGEMENT CONSULTING & RESEARCH, INC.

TR-8711/12-1 i IL Q

AIRCRAFT AVIONICS AND MISSILE SYSTEMInINSTALLATION COST STUDY0CDFINAL REPORT

t VOLUME 1

TECHNICAL REPORT AND APPENDICES A THROUGH E

Io By: DTIC

Kirsten M. Pehrsson flELECTEGeorge R. Kreisel MY0418

D12 February 1988

THE VIEWS, OPINIONS AND FINDINGS CONTAINED IN THISREPORT ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHORS AND SHOULD NOT BECONSTRUED AS AN OFFICIAL DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSEPOSITION, POLICY OR DECISION UNLESS DESIGNATED BY OTHEROFFICIAL DOCUMENTATION.

I Approved for public relec•,oPrepared For: f,4 Disibution Unlimited

Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCA)Crystal Gateway #4, Room 7001213 Jefferson Davis Highway

Arlington, VA 22202

Contract Number: N00600-84-D-4171/0012

Prepared By:

MANAGEMENT CONSULTING & RESEARCH, INC.Four Skyline Place

5113 Leesburg Pike, Suite 509Falls Church, Virginia 22041

(703) 82I-4600

SECtJRTY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE

REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGEla REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 1b. RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS

U1TCLASSIFIED ____2a SECuRTY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3 DISTRIBUTION /AVAILABILITY OF REPORT

2b DECL.ASSIFICATION /DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE Unlimited

4 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 5 MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S)

TR-S711/12-1

6a NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATIONManagement Consulting & (If applicable)Research Iaval Center for Cost Analysis6c. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 7b. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code)

5113 Leesburg Pike, Suite 509 1213 Jefferson Davis Highway, Room 700Falls Church, VA 22041 Arlington, VA 22202

8a. NAME OF FUNDING/SPONSORING IBb. OFFICE SYMBOL 9 PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBERORGANIZATIONI (If applicable) N00600-84-D-417 1/0012

Bc ADDRESS(City, State, and ZIP Code) 10 SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERSPROGRAM IPROJECT TASK IWORK LELEMENT NO. NO. NO. KACCESS

11 TITLE (Include Security Classification)Aircraft Avionics and Missile System Installation Cost Study Final ReportVolume 1: Technical Report and Appendices A through E

12 PERSONAL AUTHOR(S)Pehrsson, Kirsten %.; Kreisel, George R,

13a. TYPE OF REPORT 113b TIME COVERED 114 DATE OF REPORT (Year MonthDay) 1S. PAGE COUNTFinal IFROM 4/87 TO 2/8 1 1988 February 12 I 231

16. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION

17 COSATI CODES 18. SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block numbe.FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP Avionics, Missiles, Aircraft, Cost Analysis,

Modifications, Installations, Cost Estimating

19. ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block numb'er)

i This report documents a parametric cost model for aircraft avioniinstallations and modifications. Cost and technical data collectduring a previous avionics installation cost study, as well as dacollected from data sources identified during this effort were usedanalyze costs of individual avionics black-box modificationsinstallations into aircraft. The report details the methodology usedconstruct the data base and to develop cost-estimating relationshi(CERs). Details of CERs developed for non-recurring costs, recurriinstallation/modification kit costs, labor costs, and manhours aprovided, as well as the supporting data used in the analyses. 'Ireport is only available to authorized U.S. Government personnel./<'-.

20 DISTRIBUTION /AVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 21. ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATIONEUNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED Ej SAME AS RPT. 0 DTIC USERS Unclassified

22a NAME OF RESPONSIBLE IND!'VIDUAL 22b. TELE-PH ON E (Include Area Code) 22c. OFFICE SYMBOLCarl Vilbourn (703) 746-2311 , NCA

DO FORM 1473, 84 MAR 83 APR edition may be used until exhausted SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THISAll other editions are obsolete.

* MANAGEMENT CONSULTING & RESEARCH, INC.

TR-8711/12-1

AIRCRAFT AVIONICS AND MISSILE SYSTEM

INSTALLATION COST STUDY

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME 1

TECHNICAL REPORT AND APPENDICES A THROUGH E

p

By:

"Kirsten M. PehrssonGeorge R. Kreisel

12 February 1988

THE VIEWS, OPINIONS AND FINDINGS CONTAINED IN THISREPORT ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHORS AND SHOULD NOT BECONSTRUED AS AN OFFICIAL DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE"POSITION, POLICY OR DECISION UNLESS DESIGNATED BY OTHER

SOFFICIAL DOCUMENTATION.

Prepared For:

Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCA)Crystal Gateway #4, Room 7001213 Jefferson Davis Highway

Arlington, VA 22202

Contract Number: N00600-84-D-4171/0012

,, Prepared By:

MAN"ACEMENT CONSULTING & RESEARCH, INC.Four Skyline Place

5113 Leesburg Pike, Suite 509Falls Church, Virginia 22041

"(703) 820-4600

L

PREFACE

Management Consulting & Research, Inc. (MCR) is providing

support to the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCA) to develop an

Avionics and Missile System Installation Cost Data Base and

Parametric Cost Model. This project is being performed under

contract N00600-84-D-4171 Delivery Order 0012 of 13 April 1987.

This work is in essence an extension of analysis performed

previously for NCA, under contract N0014-85-C-0802 of 1 September

1985, "A Parametric Aircraft Avionics and Missile System

Installation Cost Model."

The Contract Data Requirements List (CDRL) calls for a

technical report that documents the statistical model and results

of analyses. This technical report, and separately bound data

base, fulfill this requirement.

MCR is grateful to several people who assisted in obtaining

and accessing the data required for both the current and previous

efforts. The time and effort spent to help in the data collec-

tion effort was well appreciated. We would particularly like to

thank the following people for their assistance during this most

recent effort:

* Mr. Jack Moore (and others) of the Naval AirSystems Command (NAVAIR 102) who providedassistance in obtaining CCB documents andexplaining the modification funding process, and

0 Mr. Dan Alton, Mr. Dalton Wood, and Ms. Donna Hallof the Naval Air Maintenance Organization (NAMO),Patuxent River, for their help in accessing TDSAdata and explaining the modification trackingprocess.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION PAGE

PREFACE ............. ...................... i

LIST OF EXHIBITS .......... ................. i.i

I. INTRODUCTION .............. .................. I-i

A. Background ............. ................ I-i

B. Purpose/Scope of Project. .......... 1-2

C. Organization of the Report .... ......... .. 1-3

II. DATA COLLECTION/SOURCES/NORMALIZATION .... ...... II-1

A. Data Collection Approach ....... .......... II-1

B. Data Sources Used to Create the Model . . 11-2

C. Data Normalization ..... ............... II-10

ITI. METHODOLOGY ............... ................... I-i

A. Hypothesize Relationships .... ......... II-1

B. Perform Regression Analysis .... ....... II-l

C. Validate CERs .......... ............... 111-13

D. Document CERs .......... ............... 111-13

IV. AIRCRAFT/AVIONICS MODIFICATION COST MODEL . .. IV-l

A. Non-Recurring Costs ...... ............ IV-3

B. Installation Kit Costs ............ . . . IV-11

C. Modification Labor Costs .... .......... .. IV-16

D. Modification Manhours . . . ........ IV-22

APPENDIX A: CER DocumentationAPPENDIX B: NCA Aircraft/Avionics Modification

Data BaseAPPENDIX C: Wiring Change Complexity ClassificationsAPPENDIX D: Installation Manhour Data Used for

Learning Curve CalculationsAPPENDIX E: Navy Airc--ft Modification Funding and

Implenen ion Cycle

ii

LIST OF EXHIBITS

EXHIBIT PAGE

II-i CCB Document Examp)les ......... .............. .. 11-7

11-2 Aircraft/AvionicA Modification Data Base WBS . . 11-12

111-3 Aircraft/Avionics Modification Categories. . . 111-9

IV-i Aircraft/Avionics Modification Cost Model.Reference Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IV-4

IV-2 Representative Non-Recurring Cost ElementBreakout .............. .................... IVo8

iii

I. INTRODUCTION

This introduction is intended to orient the reader concern-

ing the:

* background,

* purpose/scope of the study, and the

* organization of the report.

The following discussion assumes the reader has some

familiarity with the Naval aircraft modification process.

Appendix E provides a detailed description of the Navy aircraft

modification funding and implementation cycle for readers who may

require assistance.

A. BACKGROUND

The Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCA) is responsible to

the Secretary of the Navy and to the Chief of Naval Operations

for providing independent parametric cost estimates of acqui-

sition programs as part of the Department of Defense Cost

Analysis Program. NCA is also responsible for validating cost

estimates within the Department of the Navy, as directed.

In order to effectively perform its assigned mission, NCA

requires analytical techniques which are both responsive to short

lead-time tasking as well as sufficiently accurate to serve as a

basis for comparison with the detailed cost estimates produced by

the Program Managers of major defense systems. The first

requirement dictates a model which is both easy to use and which

rew!ires relatively few innut parameters. The second requirement

dictates a model which is sensitive to more detailed system

I-1

specifications and which includes sufficient documentation to bE

used with confidence when presenting independent cost estimates

to Navy and OSD decision-makers.

The combination of these NCA requirements and the rapid pace

of technological innovation- in the field of avionics requires z

set of innovative and flexible tools to relieve the cost analyst

of the time-consuming tasks of locating appropriate data anc

developing a methodology for each estimate as it is needed.

B. PURPOSE/SCOPE OF PROJECT

The purpose of this project is to expand on an aircrafl

avionics and missile system retrofit installation cost mode:

previously developed for NCA. During the previous effort, cosl

and technical data on avionics and missile system installation.

were collected from several sources, and at several levels o:

detail. The data was adjusted and formatted into a consistent

well-documented data base. Cost estimating relationships wero

developed and documented for each main category of the installa.

tion Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Results of the previou:

effort are detailed in A Parametric Aircraft Avionics and Missil4

System Installation Cost Model - Data Base Report, Volume I, TR

8516-1, Management Consulting & Research, Inc., 20 June 1986 aný

A Parametric Aircraft Avionics and Missile System Installatioi

Cost Model - Final Report, TR-8516-2, Management Consulting

Research, Inc., 31 August 1986.

The previous effort involved developing cost models fo,

avionics and missile system installations into aircraft at th'

OSIP (Operational Safety Improvement Program) level. The OSI

1-2

update programs often involved the installation, removal, or

modification of several black-boxes within the aircraft. Each

separate update action within an OSIP usually corresponds to a

Technical Directive. Therefore, there are often several

Technical. Directives associated with an OSIP.

The current study was intended to utilize to a fuller extent

all of the cost, program, and technical data previously col-

lected, in an effort to break down the costs to the level of the

separate black-box installation, removal or modification.

During the previous effort, analysis was concentrated on costs at

the total update program level. The aim of this effort is to

examine different aspects of, and in more detail, some of the

data that was collected previously, thus gaining further insight

into the actual cost drivers of installation costs. It should be

noted that only retrofit installations were considered in this

study also; installations into production line aircraft are not

included.

C. ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT

Tnis final report consists of two (2) volumes. Volume 1

contains the results of analysis and appendices. Volume 2

contains the raw and normalized TDSA data used in the data base.

Final report Volume I contains four sections. This section,

Section I, provides the background, purpose/scope of the study,

and organization of the report. Section II includes a discussion

of the data collection procedures, data sources, and data

normalization techniques. Section III pertains to the methodol-

ogy used to develop the CERs, including hypothesis of

1-3

relationships, regression analysis, validation of CERs, and

documentation of CERs. Section IV documents the aircraft

avionics and missile system installation cost model and results

of analyses.

Appendix A provides complete documentation of all CERS.

Appendix B contains the full data base used to derive the CERs

and relevant CCB descriptions. Appendix C provides definitions

of aircraft wiring classifications. Appendix D provides a full

listing of the manhour data that was utilized in the installation

learning curve analysis. Appendix E provides a description of

the Navy aircraft modification funding and implementation cycle

as a reference for those unfamiliar with the modification

process.

Although this report is intended to be a stand-alone docu-

ment, the reader may wish to refer to the reports from the

previous effort (cited in Section B above) for clarification or

detail in certain areas.

II. DATA COLLECTION/SOUPCES/NORMALIZATION

This section describes the data sources and methodology used

in formulation of the data base. The areas discussed are:

"* data collection approach,

"* data sources used to create the iaodel, and

"* data normalization.

A. DATA COLLECTION APPROACH

The data base used to create the avionics installation cost

model is the result of combining the best data from several data

sources. There were four key data sources which were tapped to

create the "hybrid" data base used in this effort. Each data

source had its strengths and weaknesses, which were taken into

account when extracting data to be used for the data base.

Identification of the four data sources used was in part a

result of research performed during a previous study for NCA, in

which avionics installations were examined solely at the program

level. It was recognized in the previous effort that there was

insufficient time and funding to utilize to the full extent

possible all of the data that had been collected and/or iden-

tified.

The intent in this effort was to extract the full benefit

of the data previously collected, and to examine a lower level of

cost and installation detail than before. New data sources were

identified during the course of updating and re-examining the

data that had been collected previously. Data was also collected

T T.-.

from the newly identified sources to provide the most complete

and accurate data base possible.

B. DATA SOURCES USED TO CREATE THE MODEL

There were four key data sources that were utilized in the

creation of the model. They are as follows: Operational Safety

Improvement Program (OSIP) Congressional Budget Submission backup

data (for FY77 through FY89), outputs from the Technical Direc-

tive Status Accounting (TDSA) system., the Technical Directives

(TDs), and Change Control Board (CBB) budget documentation. Each

data source, and the manner in which it was used, is discussed in

turn.

1. Operational Safety Improvement Program (OSIP) Budget

Backup Data

The OSIP Congressional Budget Submission backup data

was the primary source for cost data used in the previous effort.

The backup data for the budget submission reflects actual costs

from prior years used to justify the proposed budget for subse-

quent years. The OSIP items are submitted to the Chief of Naval

Operations (CNO) OP-506 each year for planning, programming, and

budgeting for the modification and mouernization of in-service

aircraft, weapon systems and power plants. The OSIP budget

sheets are compiled by the aircraft program's financial manager,

generally located at NAVAIR headquarters for aircraft in current

production, or at the Naval Air Rework Facilities (NARFs) for

aircraft that are no longer in productionn

The OSIP data has proven to be the single most compre-

hensive source of actual cost data for aircraft modifications in

11-2•

existence. Although there are several other sources of budget

cost data, they do not appear to be revised to reflect the

actuals. Costs included in the OSIP backup are projections for

the budget year to the projected end of the program, and esti-

mates for the current year. Previous year estimates are updated

to reflect actuals. The APN-5 funds are tracked, as soon as they

are obligated, through the NAVY STARS (Standard Accounting and

Reporting System). O&MN costs are monitored separately from the

APN-5 costs. The O&MN expenditures may not be reflected until

two years after the expenditures are made.

The OSIP costs are broken out by update program major

cost element, and by funding type. Only updated costs (from

previous years) were included in the data base. If expenditures

for a cost element were projected beyond the year for which

actuals were available, the cost element was not included in the

data base. The rationale is that the actual cost plus projected

cost for an element would be an estimate, and the expended

portion only of a cost would be incomplete and would provide a

skewed data base.

The OSIP data provided the historical costs from which

any costs included in the data base were derived. Occasionally

technical detail was obtained from the program description

included in the budget backup. The installation manhours in the

OSIP generally reflect estimates only, and are not updated

consistently. Therefore, the installation manhours reported in

the OSIPs were not utilized in this effort.

T -II-

All normalized OSIP data and OSIP descriptions used to

create the data base are available in A Parametric Aircraft

Avionics and Missile System Installation Cost Model-Data Base

Rp , TR-8516-2.

2. Technical Directive Status Accounting (TDSA) System

Data

Another key data source was the TDSA system. The TDSA

is a means of centralizing information on the status of modifi-

cation programs. It contains data on each TD, including

description, estimated kit costs, estimated manhours, and

reported manhours. Data are maintained and updated on the

automated system at the Naval Air Maintenance Organization at

Patuxent River, Maryland.

Computer runs of the relevant data had been obtained

during the previous effort. However, in an attempt to obtain

more complete and current data, trips were made to the facility

to query the system and obtain the latest data. Because of

familiarity with the system gained from the previous effort, we

were able to obtain more data and in a more efficient format.

The files were retrieved in a format allowing them to be

transferable to Lotus 1-2-3 software.

The main use of the TDSA data was the reported man-

hours. These reflect the actual manhours to perform modifica-

tions as reported from the installing activity. The total

manhours for the installations accomplished to date were

obtained, wieiLever available. Similar data had been obtained for

some OSIPs during the previous effort, at which point there were

11-4

fewer installations to date reflected. Therefore, the two sets

of data together provided a means of conducting learning curve

analysis.

The TDSA was also used indirectly for the estimated kit

costs it provided, and to provide a track between OSIP number and

the related TD numbers. TDSA does not provide costs other than

kit costs. The raw data obtained from TDSA is included in Volume

2. The TDSA data, normalized to reflect installation manhours at

unit 100, is also included in Volume 2.

3. Technical Directive (TD) Data

A third important data source was the TD data that had

been collected during the previous effort. TDs are the separate

orders sent to the installation facilities to perform the changes

required under an OSIP. The TDs associated with an OSIP were

identified in TDSA. The TDs had been previously located at the

NAVAIR library and the Naval Air Technical Services Facility

(NATSF). Essential data was extracted from the TDs and entered

into a standard format during the previous effort. The TDs were

the primary source for technical data on the modifications.

Examples of data obtained from them are: specific GFE units,

cabling, and miscellaneous hardware installed and removed, and

their respective weights, kit dimensions, and extent of wiring

change. All TD data utilized in this effort is available in A

Parametric Aircraft Avionics and Missile System Installation Cost

Model-Data Base Report, TR-8516-2.

11-5

4. Change Control Board (CCB) Documents

The final major data source utilized was the CCB budget

document, consisting of the Change Request/Directive, NAVAIR

Form 13050/2, and supporting detail: Cost and Funding Summary,

NAVAIR Form 13051/4 and Milestone Chart, NAVAIR Form 13051/5.

Examples of a CCB Change Request/Directive and Cost and Funding

Summary forms are provided in Exhibit II-1. These forms provide

the information required for the Change Control Board to make

the final decision to proceed with a modification.

There is generally a CCB document for each major TD,

although sometimes a CCB document addresses more than one TD.

Although the CCB is a budget document, it is based on proposed

prices supplied by the contractor. It offers cost visibility at

a lower level and in more detail than is generally provided in

the OSIP. The CCB data was mainly used to allocate the OSIP

costs to a lower level of the modification action, or to show a

lower level of cost detail. Actual costs obtained from the OSIP

could be allocated to the individual modification actions under

the OSIP, using the budgeted costs for each modification action

found in the CCB documents. For example, total update costs from

the OSIP covering several black boxes could be allocated to

individual actions to modify or install a single black box. CCB

data also helped to identify what specific costs were included in

the OSIP cost line items. It provided quantity data that was not

always available in the OSIP (e.g., quantity of trainers),

allowing calculation of unit costs.

'WCV7ý07To 501 225907 SU.LAS, T% 57~

6. CORE t rwI-032 12751 14 A?& 82 OF.lP 1KA!. £VKDV;i~UX

(a) v~w Lzfl -6zo0011-253 w= z5 mu 195

Xl-.sr~zr~us UM 1.-

* l TV .n MML~O Of MU *.: M/..4? AP-3VAnat2 7.A

IT LSIMMSA TO Am..* 47C411 & -^4 *4c.

2. lrWCI (s) ?P7I= 1M CM? AIM SCMU flACT FN 900 CV. W A£0 LISH Tim

Ac-i 0I 1 en-rarmuiiTng lnginaarlAa !nrDfll AWD 101.). TgWI~CA.Z DIIcMrv, nLA7~S IOTTWA 130 &a. A70 IITI.9'SPAIIS (9=T: 2.40 A I AM I TO CIV!1 U-:DlILLMl

0? =S'-fl6G AMr WC1ro LLST~.K~CVhmfd- phAW..IO- Avdw,.e-J 711.sYAlfo

AXI-413: MPCMV 2 *a. M1 MITS. (Ru17V'US ZXMCSMY SOMIAM C.AJICE TO flAX?! VIS]CnH

A4~ AAd .v

C7

Exhbi *.,*. CCB DOCMEN EXAM ~ - PLES

I~ T,. -7

;1 CL IN .( ____ =

.450At-Ia

.2. ~ - ' 'o AIv-1 242

4.12I

so - (n

*~~f oft~)-of . A'.d

_ _ _052

1.1DV_________

S-7

U~4- t oS2 CFM

Exhibit II-1. CCB DOCUMENT EXAMPLES (CONT'D)

MANAGEMENT CONSULTING & RESEARCH, INC.m

11-8

z

I

z

U,- zo0U

z�I2I

I �

HH

4J"4

.94'Cx

if

* �Vj �½ � �

I11-9

Files of the more recent CCB documents, and also

related documentation (contractor modifications, Purchase Orders,

proposal data, etc.) are maintained at AIR-02. The CCB documents

that were not active during FY84 were sent for storage in

archives. It is apparently a very difficult and time-consuming

task to obtain older CCB data trom the archives (which is

actually a large warehouse), so retrieval of them was not

attempted in this effort. We limited the search for CCB

documents to those OSIPs for which we had all of the TD data. Of

these, several of the related CCB documents were either archived

or were proprietary and could not be disclosed.

C. DATA NORMALIZATION

In order to achieve a data base of comparable data points

for use in formulating CERs, it was necessary to perform several

steps to normalize the data. Costs were formatted using a Work

Breakdown Structure (WBS), and were escalated/deflated to

constant-year dollars. The Aircraft Fiscal Year Escalation

Indices for 1985 from NAVAIR 5243 were used to adjust costs to

base year dollars. The electronics composite rate was used to

adjust the material cost elements. A "loaded" (including

overhead) electronics labor rate was used to adjust labor-

intensive cost elements. The escalation indi-es applied to

recurring costs were weighted to reflect dn expenditure profile

of 70 percent for the first year, 20 percent for the second year,

and 10 percent for the third year. Using learning curve

analysis, a methodology was developed and applied to normalize

the installation manhour data to comparable cumulative averages.

II-10

1. Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

MCR developed a WBS during the previous effort

specifically for the avionics/missile installation study. The

same WBS was used here, with the exception that the non-recurring

breakout was slightly modified to provide for the detail from the

CCB documents. The WBS format is presented in Exhibit 11-2. The

OSIP data was mapped into the WBS structure during the previous

effort (see TR-8516-2 for details). The WBS structure provides a

standard means of grouping the program costs to allow for

comparison of costs between programs and use in CERs.

2. OSIP Budget Backup Data

The WBS is consistent with the way the costs are broken

out in the OSIP backup data. Individual cost line items in the

OSIP were allocated to the appropriate cost sub-category (such

as non-recurring engineering, tooling, etc.). If the sub-

category was not stated or implied, it was allocated only at the

major cost level (such as non-recurring). When a cost could

belong to more than one category, and could not readily be

allocated between them, it was footnoted and attributed to what

was judged to be the major category.

The majority of the OSIP data came from work performed

during the previous effort. However, one program was updated to

reflect additional historical cost data obtained in the FY88/89

Congressional Budget Submission. During the previous effort, all

available historical OSIP costs for relevant OSIPs were included,

regardless of the amount of technical detail available. During

this effort, only those OSIPs were included in the data base

IT--I•

NON-RECURRING (APN-5)ENG/DES IGN/DEV/TEST

NRETOOLINGTEST/GOV TEST

DRAWINGSTECH DIRECTIVETECH DIRECTIVE PRINTING AND DISTRIBUTIONDATA/PUBS

PUBLICATIONSPUBLICATIONS PRINTING AND DISTRIBUTION

INTEGRATED LOGISTIC SUPPORT

RECURRING (APN-5)KITSHARDWARERECURRING ENGRREFURBISH/UPDATE

PECULIAR SUPPORT EQUIP (APN-5)PSE ENGRPSE MOD KITSPSE HARDWARE

TRAINER (APN-5)TRAINER ENGRTRAINER MOD KITSTRAINER HARDWARE

SPARES (APN-6)

INSTALLATION (O&MN)AVIONICS INSTALLATIONPSE INSTALLATIONTRAINER INSTALLATIONMODIFICATION OF SPARES

INTEGRATED LOGISTIC SUPPORT (O&MN)

Exhibit 11-2. AIRCRAFT/AVIONICS MODIFICATIONDATA BASE WBS

MANAGEMENT CONSULTING & RESEARCH, INC.

11-12

where all of the relevant TD data was also available. The

exception to the rule was that the aggregate kit costs from the

historical OSIP data were utilized, even if all TDs for the OSIP

were not available, if they could be allocated to individual kit

costs using the TDSA kit cost estimates.

3. CCB Data

The historical OSIP data was allocated to component

modification actions of an update program based on the CCB

budgets, where possible. The sum of the CCB budgeted cost

elements was compared to the OSIP historical data. The sum of

the CCB data had to be compared to the raw (then-year) OSIP data,

as it was in then-year dollars. only if the match was reasonable

(within 10 percent), then the normalized OSIP costs were

allocated to the individual component modification actions, in

proportion to their budgeted amounts. This analysis and

allocation was performed for each cost element separately. This

methodology eliminated the need to re-normalize the data to

constant-year dollars. If the summed CCB document and historical

OSIP costs did not match reasonably for a particular cost

element, then the allocation was not attempted and the cost

element was not included. The exception occurred where all of

the costs in an OSIP cost element could be attributed to one

modification component, and allocation was not necessary for that

cost element.

11-13

4. TDSA Data

TDSA provides estimated or actual kit costs for

individual TDs, when available. The kit costs reflected in an

OSIP may be the 5um of these kit costs for individual TDs within

the OSIP. When estimated or actual kit costs for all of the TDs

related to an OSIP were available, and the actual total program

kit cost was available from the OSIP data, the actual total

program kit cost was allocated to the individual kits. Only the

kit costs for which there were associated TD data were included

in the data base.

5. Learning Curve Application

TDSA also provides estimated and reported installation

manhours. The reported manhours are shown as total manhours to-

date to perform total installations to-date. The total manhours

and total installations figures are used to derive the estimated

cumulative average installation manhours at a particular

installation sequence number. It was necessary to perform

learning curve analysis so that these data points could be

normalized to installation manhours at the same installation

sequernce number. Only by this means, would the data points be

comparable. The methodology used to perform the learning curve

analysis is explained in detail below.

The candidate data set for learning curve calculation

included those cases where there were reported manhours in the

TDSA from both the 1986 and 1987 data collection efforts and

where there had been installations accomplished between 1986 and

1987. The following rules were applied to the original candidate

11-14

data set to obtain a homogeneous and representative data set from

which to derive useful average learning curves. The average

learning curves were then applied to those cases where the

average installation manhours were only available in the 1987

data collection to estimate a cumulative average cost at unit

100.

Data points from the candidate set were deleted if:

9 They were administrative modifications. Examplesare: OSIP 3-75, AVC 1782, Amendment 1 whichcorrects a typographical error in the testinginstructions; OSIP 28-75, AFC 239, Amendment 1corrects the basic serialization and adds serialnumbers for FY80 funding; OSIP 28-75, AFC 239,Amendment 2 adds serial numbers for FY81 funding.Administrative modifications usually involve lowmanhours, and do not directly relate to themodification task being performed.

* The data point was a kit other than the Al kit(e.g., A2, A3), except as noted below. These areoften the same modification to the same model ofaircraft, but to a different configuration. Toavoid double-counting, only one kit per TD wascounted. The exception occurs when Al and A2,etc. are complimentary parts of a singlemodification kit.

* The data point was not for basic equipment, butrather spares, etc. (i.e., not an "A" kit).

* The calculated learning curve was above 120percent or below 60 percent. It was assumed thatsome reporting errors or other unknown factorswere involved if the calculated learning curve wasoutside that range. This range was chosen toexclude a number of data points that were judgedto be outliers.

0 The change did not involve avionics.

* The modification had been cancelled and replacedby a new TD.

0 The TDSA data appeared incorrect (e.g., quantityinstalled decreased over time, or quantityinstalled increased while total manhours remainedthe same.)

II-15;

* The modification was not internal to the aircraft.

* It was not clear if all parts of the kit wereincluded.

Data points from the candidate set were combined if:

0 The kit was in two or more parts. The installa-tion manhours were combined and the computedlearning curve used as one data point in thiscase.

The 12 cases within the acceptable data set where

there had been less than ten installations reported between the

1986 and 1987 data collections were segregated. This subset was

analyzed to determine if the learning curve calculations would be

unreli ole because of the small quantity change between years.

They exhibited a distribution of calculated learning curves

consistent with that for the entire 59 data 1oints.

Consequently, the subset was not excluded from the data set used

to calculate average. learning curves.

The data set of candidates used for calculation of

average learning curves is included as Appendix D. The data set

includes justification for inclusion or exclusion of each data

point in calculating a representative average. Averages were

calculated from the data for three categories: airframe changes,

avionics changes, and general. The average learning curve for

airframe changes was 81 percent, for avionics changes 97 percent,

and for the total data set 82 percent.

The following rules were applied to the entire data set

for normalization to cumulative average at unit 100.

11-16

* If the total reported quantity for theinstallation was above 65, and a learning curvecould be calculated using data obtained during thetwo data collection efforts, the calculatedlearning curve was used to obtain average manhoursat unit 100.

* If the total reported quantity for theinstallation was above 65, and no learning curvecould be calculated, or if the total reportedquantity of installations was less than 65, anaverage was used. The calculated average learningcurve for the particular type of installation (AFCor AVC) was applied to obtain average manhours atunit 100.

Again, only those data points were included in the data

base that also had available technical data parameters.

A notable discrepancy was found between the rather

steep learning curve reflected in the TDSA data and the nearly

flat learning curves reflected in the OSIP installation costs.

Learning curve calculations had been performed on the OSIP

installation costs in the previous effort. Upon further

investigation, and conversation with NAVAIR personnel, several

reasons for this discrepancy were identified.

First, little or no learning is incorpo rated into the

budgeted installation costs (in the OSIPs) to allow for the

possibility that the installations might be performed at a new

site (e.g., they could stop performing them at Norfolk, and begin

at the NARF, Alameda).

Secondly, the installation costs include "over-and-

above" costs that are not labor costs directly related to

performing the modification. These extra costs may be quite

sulbsta-tial, an~d may includc zuch costs as: repair of repair-

ables, fixing problems found with the aircraft upon inspection

TT-17

when received, supply parts, "customer service," standardization

of configurations, and other miscellaneous necessary, but

unrelated, tasks. The contractor may estimate the total

installation cost, including the "over-and-above" costs, and

divide by the wage rate to supply the estimated manhours

reflected in the OSIP.

Finally, the O&MN costs (including the installation)

are not revised as consistently as the APN-5 funding, to reflect

actuals. The O&MN costs may not be reported until two years

after they are expended. By the time they are reported, the

program may be ending and no more budget submissions will be

made, that is, the accounting never "catches up" to the modifica-

tion budget documentation. Also, the O&MN money is separately

monitored, and the responsible activity tracks the expenditures

on a document other than the OSIP budget backup. Therefore,

discrepancies in the OSIP data may go unnoticed.

Because of the above reasons and the extensive manhour

data included in the data base, it is suggested that the TDSA

modification manhour CERs are the best means of obtaining actual

direct labor cost estimates from this model.

6. Technical Directive Data

Much of the technical detail provided on the TDs was

utilized during this effort. Some technical parameters that were

included in the data base had to be derived from the data

available on the TD. Examples are: segregating the equipment

being installed and removed from the aircraft into unit, cabling,

and miscellaneous hardware categories, calculating their

II-18

respective weights, and calculating the number of boxes and

units installed and removed. All "AN/"-nomenclatured systems

were counted as black-boxes. All main components of the system

(receivers, transmitters, etc.) were counted as units. The

wiring change was measured on a scale of 0-4, and the descrip-

tions for each category are shown in Appendix C. Equipment types

were categorized according to primary and secondary purpose.

Percentages were calculated for the number of manhours for each

labor category (electrical, structural, mechanical) relative to

the total expected manhours for the installation. For example,

if the expected labor breakdown (shown on the TD) were electrical

technician-20, structural mechanic-40, and general mechanic-10,

the breakdown would be 29 percent, 57 percent, and 14 percent,

respectively.

-19

III. METHODOLOGY

This section describes the methodology employed to develop

the cost and installation manhour models. The aircraft/avionics

modification data base was used to develop CERs, and to perform

related analysis. There were four main steps to the CER

development methodology which are discussed below. They are:

* hypothesize relationships,

0 perform the regression analysis

0 validate CERs, and

* document the CERs.

The step of hypothesizing relationships was performed during

initial data collection, as it was imperative that the necessary

data was collected and structured into the data base so that

logical relationships could be tested.

A. HYPOTHESIZE RELATIONSHIPS

The following discussion describes:

0 the hypotheses tested for various WBS elements,

* stratifiers used to segregate data or modify CERs,and

* use of learning curves.

1. Hypotheses

Hypothesizing relationships between the WBS elements

and the numerous potential cost drivers requires an understanding

of the cost impact of the physical, performance, and technology

parameters. Relationships based on sound engineering or economic

principles were hypothesized, then tested by regression analysis.

TTT-1

Some relationships resulting from the regression analysis had

appealing statistics, but were rejected during the validation

process. Hypotheses were tested primarily for: modification

non-recurring costs, modification kit cost, modification instal-

lation cost, and modification installation mannours. Factor

analysis was performed on elements of the non-recurring cost.

Due to lack of sufficient historical cost data, rela-

tionships were not developed for all of the WBS elements.

The main cost elements that were tested are discussed

in the paragraphs below.

a. Non-Recurring Costs

Non-recurring costs include design, development,

engineering, test, tooling, and preparation of the change

directive which are independent of the items procured. Non-

recurring is funded under APN-5. If the change is also made to

production aircraft, only that portion of the non-recurring cost

directly attributable to the retrofit is funded under the retro-

fit program. Cost associated with retrofit items, i.e., publi-

cations and modification of spares, are funded by the production

program, and are listed under the "production" column in the CCB

budget data.

The following parameters were hypothesized and

tested as cost drivers for non-recurring costs:

"* Number of black-boxes (systems) installed, removedor modified;

"• Number of units (components) installed, removed,

or modified;

l Weight of units installed or removed;

TTT-2

* Total weight installed;

* Extent of wiring change;

* Hardware cumulative average cost;

* Kit cumulative average cost;

* Kit dimensions; and

* Kit weight.

The sub-elements of non-recurring consist of the

following cost elements.

0 Engineering DesiQn. Development. and Test. Thesecosts, not dependent on the number of itemsproduced, are for the engineering data eascribingthe change. Charges include, but are not limitedto those for engineering work hours, prototype orvalidation of hardware or software.

0 Drawings. Non-recurring costs are for preparationof engineering drawings describing the change.

* Technical Directive Preparation. Included arecosts for Technical Directive (TD) preparationincluding those for technical writing drafts ofthe reproducible master copy and applicablecharges for preparation of interim TDs.

"" Technical Directive Printing & Distribution.Costs are for printing and distribution of the TD.

"* Data (Technical Data and Information). Thesecosts include the means for communication of con-cepts, plans, descriptions, requirements, andinstructions relating to technical projects,material, systems, and services. They may includespecifications, standards, engineering drawings,associated lists, manuals, and reports, includingscientific and technical reports, and they may bein the form of documents, displays, sound records,punched cards, and digital or analog data.

"* Publications. Costs for new and or revisedpublications describing the proposed changes.Charges include manhours and materials requiredfor technical writing and illustration of newpublications or change pages for publicationupdates.

III-3

0 Publications Printinc & Distribution. Costs forprinting and distribution of new and revisedpublications describing the proposed change.

* fL. Included are costs for LSA and revisions,maintenance plans and revisions, and other ILS notdependent on the number of items produced.

CERs were developed for total non-recurring cost.

A table of factors was prepared for the sub-elements of non-

recurring cost. The mean percentage of each sub-element to

total non-recurring cost was calculated. As the breakout for all

elements was not available in all cases, the sum for the mean

percentages did not equal 100 percent. Therefore, the per-

centages were adjusted to totcl 100 percent. This allows the

analyst to estimate a typical breakdown of non-recurring cost

elements, under the assumption that all elements will be present.

b. Recurring Kit Costs

Basic kit costs include recurring costs for

manufacture or purchase of retrofit kits for the system or

equipment affected by the change. In general, avionics changes

require a kit to modify a system, and airframe changes require a

kit to install a system into the airframe. In-warranty retrofit

kits are funded under the production program. This cost includes

any prototype that may have been used by the manufacturer for

"validation" of the design and any initial kit supplied to the

NARF for "verification." If prototype kits were included in the

non-recurring costs in the raw data, they were allocated to kit

costs during normalization. The basic kits may apply to either

airframe changes or to avionics changes.

TTT-4

There may be recurring costs for manufacture or

purchase of retrofit kits for system or equipment spares and

trainers affected by the modification. Spare kits for avionics

changes may be applicable to components, such as printed circuit

boards.

The following parameters were hypothesized to be

the cost drivers for recurring kit costs and were tested by

regression analysis:

* Number of black-boxes installed, removed ormodified;

* Number of units installed, removed or modified;

* Weight of units installed or removed;

* Weight of units plus installation hardware(brackets, etc.) and cabling installed or removed;

"* Extent of wiring change;

"* System hardware cumulative average cost;

"* Installation complexity (percent of weightinstalled that is not system weight);

"• Kit dimensions; and

"* Kit weight.

c. Recurring Installation Labor Costs

Installation labor costs refer to the physical

installation of airframe or avionics changes. They include costs

for the modification of systems or equipment by depot rework,

depot field team, commercial rework or commercial field team.

Charges for changes performed at the organizational and inter-

nediate levels are not reflected. Labor-rclcatcd costa for

retrofit, testing and TD verification are included. Once an

111-5

airframe change has been made, the installation of the "black-

box" hardware system may be a simple plug-in operation. Other

avionics black-boxes may require modification by avionics changes

to work with the new black-box, however. Other avionics changes

may be made completely independent of any aircraft.

The hypotheses for CERs for installation labor

costs included the following parameters:

* Number of black-boxes installed, removed ormodified;

* Number or units installed, removed or modified;

* Weight of units installed or removed;

* Weight of units plus installation hardware(brackets, etc.) plus cables installed or removed;

* Extent of wiring change;

* Kit cumulative average costs;

* Kit weight;

0 Kit dimensions; and

* Airciaft avionics (already installed) equipmentweight.

2. Stratifiers

Stratifiers were also used to logically segregate the

data points in the data base. The stratifiers that were tested

for effect on the CER were the following:

0 Aircraft type,

* Equipment type,

* Installer,

e Form-fit-function, and

* Box modifications or installations/removals.

111-6

a. Aircraft Type

The modifications were categorized by the type of

aircraft to which they apply. The categories are:

o Fighter/Attack,

* Airborne Early Warning (AEW),

* Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW),

* Helicopter, and

* Cargo.

b. Equipment Type

The modifications were categorized by the type of

equipment that was being installed or modified. The equipment

categories include those used in the previous effort, plus three

additional categories that became relevant after examination of

the new data collected. The original categories used were:

* Communications,

• Navigation,

* Identification,

* Electronic Countermeasures,

* Electronic Support Measures,

* Radar,

* Electro-Optical, and

* Missile.

The new categories that were added are:

* Armament,

0 Surveillance, and

* Fire Control.

The equipment was also described by equipment type

and equipment purpose. This was indicated by a code letter

indicating each parameter. The equipment type and purpose

letters are usually the second and third letters of the "AN/-"

nomenclatured equipment installed or modified. The equipment

type and purpose codes correspond to the definitions in the AN/-

Nomenclature system designations, and are not listed here. The

exceptions are the type codes "1W"1 and "Z", which denote armament

and airframe changes, and the purpose codes "P", "U", and "Z",

which denote pylons, wiring, and structure changes, respectively.

c. Installing Activity

Modifications were also stratified by the

modifying agency and the method of performing the change. The

possible variations of modification method and installer are

shown in Exhibit III-1.

Information on the installing activity waE

obtained either from the OSIP description, the TD, or the TDS;

data.

d. Form-Fit-Function

Form-fit-function replacements were segregated ir

an attempt to enhance the CERs. A modification was denoted aE

form-fit-function only when so described in the OSIP justifi-

cation or in the TD. It was expected that a form-fit-functior

replacement would involve less non-recurring cost and installa-

tion labor, as it is a direct replacement for a similar piece ol

equipment.

Installer

Method Organization/Contractor NARF Intermediate

Component Turn-Around (CTA) X X

Standard Depot Level X XMaintenance (SDLM)

Drive-In (or Fly-In) (DI) X X

Field Modification Team X X(FMT)

Not Specified (N/S) X X

Maintenance Personnel (at Xno additional cost) (o&I)

X = Possible method/installer combination

Exhibit III-1. AIRCRAFT/AVIONICS MODIFICATION CATEGORIES

MANAGEMENT CONSULTING & RESEARCH, INC. m

TTT-9

e. Box Modifications or Installation/Removals

The modifications were classified according to

boxes installed, boxes removed, and boxes modified. The data

base was separated according to whether the modification involved

modification of a box only, or installations and removals of

boxes. This distinction was made to segregate avionics changes

from airframe changes. The TD number contains two digits which

describe the type of change. The numbers "50" denote an airframe

change, ancd. "54" denote an avionics change. However, examination

of the TD contents showed that this convention was not always

followed. Therefore, the TD number was not always followed to

categorize the change as an airframe change (box installation/

removal) or an avionics change (box modification). Rather, the

data base was segregated according to whether boxes were modified

only, or boxes were installed/removed based upon the TD descrip-

tion.

3. Complexity Factors

Complexity factors were tested as another stratifier in

CER development. Complexity factors were developed that gauged

the complexity of:

"* wiring changes due to the modification;

"* The installation, defined by the percentage ortotal weight installed that is miscellaneoushardware and cabling;

"* The installation, defined by the percentage oftotal weight installed and removed that iscabling;

III-10n

* The aircraft, defined by the percentage ofaircraft weight that is avionics equipment andavionics installations; and

* The aircraft, defined by the aircraft avionics

weight divided by the fuselage volume.

Details on the derivation and definitions of thE

aircraft complexity factors can be obtained in TR-8516-2.

4. Constant Terms

In some of the CERs included in the model, the constan,

term was repressed, and the curve "forced" through the origin

This was done when the constant term was not very significant

often because there were data points near the origin. Attempt:

to segregate the data sets into groups was made when possible

but segregation was not always feasible due to limitations of th,

data set.

B. PERFORM REGRESSION ANALYSIS

MCR tested the hypothesized relationships using regressio

analysis. This process was automated on MC'Z's IBM PC-compatibl

microcomputers. The normalized data bas, as placed into a LOTU

1-2-3 file.

These files were transferred to MCR's statistical package

which contains a data base system that facilitates adding

changing, deleting, transforming or selecting variables fo

regression. Complete statistics of the regressions were outpu

so that the CERs could be evaluated based cn these statistics

These statistical measures apply to the overall regressio

equation as well as to individual coefficients and parameters

Those measures that apply to the coefficients and parameters are

TTT-11

"* standard error - the standard error of thecoefficient value, and

"* t test - a statistical test of whether the

coefficient is significant.

The statistical measures that apply to the overall CER are:

0* R2 (Coefficient cf Determination) - a statisticalmeasure indicating the proportion of totalvariation that is explained by the regressionequation;

0 F ratio - a statistical test of the significanceof the regression equation; and

* standard error of the estimate - statisticalmeasure of variation of the data from theregression equation.

Additional tests of the regression equations were made by

residual analysis using the outputs of the statistical analysis

program:

* table of predictions and residuals - tables ofpredicted values and the difference between actualand predicted values;

* scatter plots - various plots showing the scatterof actual values compared to the regressionequation; and

* Durbin-Watson Statistic - a statistical test ofcorrelation of the residuals.

Examination of the table of predictions and residuals and

scatter plots revealed whether:

"* there were outliers,

"* there were omitted variables,

"* the relationship was non-linear,

"* the residuals were correlated instead of indepen-dent,

"* the variance of the residuals was not constant, or

"* the residuals were not normally distributed.

111-12

C. VALIDATE CERs

MCR validated the CERs by two principal methods to assure

that their use will result in reasonable and usable estimates.

Validation is not a clearly defined process. The analyst's

judgement was a crucial element in the evaluation of CERs and the

presentation of the results to demonstrate their validity. These

methods employed to test the validity of the CERs included:

* engineering evaluation of coefficients, and

* examining the residuals.

MCR carefully examined the coefficients and signs to

determine whether the expected relationships and weighing

actually occurred.

The statistical analysis program computes the residuals for

each CER. These are the differences between the actual cost of

each data point and the predicted cost using corresponding

parameters in the CER. The residuals were examined to determine

if there were any systematic errors in the estimating formula.

D. DOCUMENT CERS

The documentation of the aircraft/avionics modification/

installation CERs developed in this study is presented in two

parts. The parts consist of the following:

0 a tllL.el for use by the analyst in preparing costor ranhour estimates for aircraft/avionicsmodifications, and

* detailed documentation of individual CERs includedin a separate appendix.

III-13

1. Aircraft/Avionics Modification Cost Model

MCR documented the CERs and results of factor analysi!

in the form of the Aircraft/Avionics Modification Cost Model

The CERs developed are applicable to different phases of tho

estimating process. As the modification program progresses

parameters may become known that were not available during th4

planning phase. The model is presented in a matrix that denote:

the applicable CERs or factors for different elements, ani

different types of changes (box installation/removal, bo:

modification, or general) to be estimated. The cost mode

applicability matrix and estimating relationships are detailed i

Section IV.

The CERs that were derived, as well as the descriptiv

information, are provided in Section IV. The descriptiv

information for the CERs includes:

"* the CER formula.

"* description of the parameters,

"* sample size,

"* the adjusted coefficient of determination (Rsquared),

"* standard error of the estimate (SEE),

"* mean of the dependent variable, and

"* ranges of all the parameters.

Accompanying each is a discussion of uses and limitations of th

CER and pertinent comments on its derivation.

Various CERs are provided in each category so that th

analyst can utilize any parameters known at the time of estima

tion.

111__14

Factors were used for the elements of non-recurring

costs. The table of factors, and description of derivation and

applicability, is also presented.

2. CER Documentation

Documentation of the CERs is provided in Appendix A.

The supporting documentation is presented in order of the

"Reference Numbers" that are used in the cost model matrix. The

Reference Number in the cost model matrix corresponds to the

Reference Number listed before each relationship in the modifica-

tion cost model discussed in Section IV, and in the CER documen-

tation, Appendix A.

Supporting documentation of the CERs derived includes

the following items:

"* statistical measures of relationship including:

- coefficients,

- standard error of the coefficients,

- t-statistics of the coefficients,

- sample size,

- standard error of the estimate,

- R squared,

- adjusted R squared,

- F-statistic, and

- Durbin-Watson statistic,

"* residual plot;

"* standard plot of fitted versus actual values;

"* the data sample used in the derivation, includingthe relevant OSIP number, fitted values, andresidual values; and

111-15

* graph of independent versus dependent variable (iflinear regression with one regressor), or actualversus fitted values (if multiple regressors orexponential form).

For the exponential relationships, the fitted and

residual values are transformed from the logarithmic form back to

the actual values.

IV. AIRCRAFT/AVIONICS MODIFICATION COST MODEL

This cost model is the result of an effort to expand on

analysis performed during a previous avionics and missile system

installation cost study. In the previous effort, retrofit

modification programs were analyzed at a more aggregate level,

the update program level. It was hoped that using the data

sources to further break down the modification costs to separate

modification actions would allow identificati'- of stronger

estimating relationships.

Data was utilized from data sources identified during the

previous study, and from newly identified sources, to provide the

most detailed and accurate data base possible. As a result of

extensive research, and contacts with NAVAIR and NAMO personnel,

it is felt that the data sources utilized in this effort are the

best available for the purpose of avionics installation costing.

When the costs and manhours are examined at lower levels,

however, it is suspected that the "noise" inherent in the data

becomes more disruptive to the relationships. Examples of

possible influences on the data are:

* inclusion in reported data of additional costsnecessary for the overall update program but notto the particular modification;

* inconsistent cost and manhour reporting; and

* unknown factors in the modification scenario.

In effect, there are too many variables affecting a single

modification action for the costs to lend themselves to strong

parametric relationships.

T7--1

The strongest relationships found in the data are based on

inputs that may not be known during the conceptual phase of a

modification program. The relationships between readily avail-

able input parameters and installation costs were less apparent.

The CERs that were developed in the previous study, "A Parametric

Aircraft Avionics and Missile System Installation Cost Model,"

completed 20 June 1986, may still be more useful for certain

cases. However, this effort provided some strong relationships

for avionics modifications, not found during the previous effort.

Also, it utilized a source of reported manhour data that was not

incorporated into the earlier CERs.

It should be noted that the results of this effort include

the data base which can be used for analog estimating, as well as

the resultant CERs. The data base may be used for reference

where there are insufficient data points, or too tenuous a

relationship, to develop a parametric estimating equation. In

some cases, the use of the data base to obtain analog estimates

may be the better course for the estimator of aircraft/avionics

modifications.

The CERs and factors derived for retrofit aircraft/avionics

modifications are presented below. They are discussed in the

following order: Non-recurring costs, installation kit costs,

installation labor costs, and installation manhours. The

relationships are numbered sequentially. Within each of the

above groups, the relationships are listed in order of pre-

ference. The reference numbers correspond to those shown in

TV_9

the model matrix, Exhibit IV-l. Relationships were developed to

apply to the following cases:

* Installations/Removals of "black-box" hardware.GFE- or CFE-supplied black-boxes are installed inan aircraft. Removal of obsolete black-boxes may,or may not, accompany the installation(s).

* Modification of hardware. The black-boxes them-selves are modified, with no change made to theaircraft. The modifications can be made toblack-boxes on the bench and later exchanged forunmodified units in one, or several, aircrafttypes.

* Combination of Installations/Removals andModifications of black-boxes. All data pointswere combined to be used in the regressions.

The model matrix, Exhibit IV-l, shows the breakout of the

relevant relationships to the cost elements. The cost matrix is

presented in three sections corresponding to the three modifica-

tion types: box installations/removals, box modifications, and

general (both). They are ordered within each element/type

"block" by preference. The preference order of the relationships

was determined by the statistical measures of the CERs, and by

the probable availability of the input parameters. It should be

noted, however, that even if an input parameter value is not

available, it is possible that the value can be estimated from

another of the model relationships or other means available to

the estimator. Each relationship is designated by a distinct

"Reference No.", which is traceable to the model matrix, for easy

reference and location of relevant relationships.

A. NON-RECURPING COSTS

Non-recurring costs include design, development, engi-

neering, test, tooling, and preparation of the TD, publications

IV-3

u w z

0d

Z L0w < w c ~ Ll] C

< < E-4

-07 0

6 UQ U w u U

zQ t ____ __ __ 0> G<2

0N

zz

z 000

ft - * z __ _Z__ __ ft TO__ __ _ _ __ _ _ __ _

I2F-IV-4

H cI0 00

C6,

zz

U- u_ Li-

Lz --_ _ _ w _ _ ~ u

0 L > H

kn ~ WI 0 P\ r r- 0-e 00

0 z-- IH

L-4 m-

0 ..

__ __L1 2 1____

> U

Z 5

_q9<

0MA

LLA LX U 44

oo UJQ ZZ

> cn

ZZ00Z0

Q ____ <_ -4_____ E-4

z 0

> 0

E-4

OL z

z ZZQC 0 N "

x w 4 C404 C CH

0U

LL~. ~IZ

IV-

and ILS. These are independent of the items procured. In

addition to the CERs derived for total non-recurring costs, a

represen-tative breakout of the non-recurring cost elements was

developed, shown in Exhibit IV-2. The sub-elements were included

in calculation of average percent of total non-recurring only

when there was a positive value for the sub-element. As there

were not costs for edch sub-element in the matrix, the calculated

percentages did not total 100 percent. Therefore, the per-

centages were adjusted to total 100 percent, providing a

representative breakout for estimating. The breakout reflects

estimated percent of elements to total non-recurring cost,

assuming all non-recurring sub-elements are expected to be

present.

Reference No. 1

Non-recurring costs (box installations/removals)

nonrec = 615.4 (boxins)

Where: nonrec = Non-recurring costs in FY84 $Kbox ins = No. of black-boxes installed

and: Sample size = 11R2 (adj.) = .6547SEE = 608Mean = 822.72Range = nonrec: 8 to 3071,

box-ins: 1 to 3

This CER applies to total non-recurring costs tor installa-

tions and removals of avionics and missile systems only. These

are generally implemented by airframe changes (AFCs). This

relationship does not apply to avionics system modifications.

IV-7

I1" 31' DATA/ DiTi/NON- DI1SIW TICE TICB. PUBS POBLI- POBS

IICO11RIG TIST Itl TOOLING TIST To TOT D11. P1IF.DI. PAP R1AVINGS TOT CATIORS PRIPTING ILS8411 8411 8411 8411 8411 843 1 8441 841 11 481 841 8411 8411

3071 2681 1823 175 683 10.38 10 0.38 0 151.62 2281572 1111 1005 23 83 0 0 0 0 338 338 0 1231W55 608 W7 234 233.4 0.6 0 213 192 21 0

10,1 9 690 9 110.5 110.i 0.4 220.5 199 21.5 0921 921 121 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0800 694.7 234 40.3 40 0.3 0 : 58.2 6.8 0657 229 195 34 0 8 0 0 o 420 428 0 0

459.25 58 24.2 0 33.8 45.45 45 4 0.05 86 269.8 235 34 8 0379.23 312.4 5.23 4.7 0.53 0 61.6 56 51 0

301 145.3 76.3 75.9 0.4 0205.4 160 4 9 8.5 0.5 12.7 23.3 21.2 2.1 0

155 94.9 4.1 3.4 0.7 0 56 56 0 012 10.2 18.2 0 0 1.0 1.4 0.4 0 62 43.3 8.7 034 34 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25.61 17.A 2.81 2.8 0.01 0 5.5 5 0.5 016.4 2.1 10.8 9.5 1.3 0 3,5 3.1 0.4 0

8 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cost ilementat I of Total 72 41 59.3% 4.41 15.71: 7.31 7.21 0.1o : 14.81: 19.9% 25.61 2.51: 7.6tNon-recnrring

- -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- -- -- - -- - - -- -- - -- - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - -.. . . .... ...

Cott Ilesentae I of Total 100.00% 59.4% 44.41 3.31 11.71; 6.01 569% 0.1%: 12.11: 16.31 14.80 1.5%: 6.2ývon-recurrin,Worsailied to 100G ,

S................................................................. .........................................................

Note Ion-recurrial cost eletents say tot add to total There,vauee for all of tie !eletts are not knovn.

Exhibit. IV-2. REPRESENTATIVE NON-RECURRINGCOST ELEMENT BREAKOUT

, MANAGEMENT CONSULTING & RESEARCH, INC. -

IV-8

Although the R2 value is not high, the CER is useful because the

input parameter should be known early on in the modification

planning.

Reference No.2

Non-recurring costs (box installationslremovals)

nonrec = 1.40 (twtins) + 524.7

Where: nonrec = Non-recurring costs in FY84 SKtwtins = total weight installed

and: Sample size = 7R2 (adj.) = .6939SEE = 235Mean 837.84Range = nonrec: 301 to 1571

twt ins: 24 to 761

This CER applies to non-recurring costs for installations

and removal of black-boxes only. The total weight installed

includes the weight of the units, the miscellaneous hardware

(brackets, etc.), and cables installed. Installations identified

as form-fit-function replacements were excluded from the data

set, as they lowered the quality of the regression statistics,

and would logically be expected to have different non-recurring

costs. Although this total weight to be installed may not be

known at the outset of the modification planning, it may become

available as the planning progresses.

Reference No. 3

Non-recurring costs (box installations!removals)

nonrec = 22.2 (boxins) 2 "3 4 (wirch+l) 1 "9 8

Where: nonrec = Non-recurrinq costs in FY84 $Kbox ins = No. of black-boxes installedwirch = Complexity factor for wiring change

and: Sample size = 11R2 (adj.) = .5444SEE = 1.2 (+239 p~rcent, -70 percent)Mean = 822.7Range = nonrec: 8 to 3071

wirch: 0 to 3box-ins: 1 to 3

This CER applies to non-recurring costs for installations

and removals of black-boxes only. Although the R2 is not high,

the input parameters should be known early-on in the modification

planning. The categories used to define wiring complexity are

shown in Appendix C.

Reference No. 4

NJon-recurring costs (F-F-F box installations/removals)

nonrec = 12.94 (mhrs_100)

Where: nonrec = Non-recurring costs in FY84 $Kmhrs_100 = manhours to install at unit 100

and: Sample size = 4R2 (adj.) = .9993SEE = 55Mean = 487Range = nonrec: 14 to 1884

mhrs_100: 1.14 to 237

This CER applies to form-fit-function black-box installa-

tions and removals only. Although the input parameter may not be

available early-on, estimates of its value may be.

Reference No. 5

Non-recurrinQ costs (box modifications)

nonrec = .9702(kitcac) + 187.9

Where: nonrec = Non-recurring costs in FY84 $Kkit cac = Kit cum. ave. cost at unit 100 in FY84$K

and: Sample size = 5R2 (adj.) = .8346SEE = 142Mean 337.1Range = nonrec: 25.5 to 921

kit cac: .1 to 758

This CER applies to black-box modifications only. Although

the input parameter may not be known early-on in the modification

planning, it may become available, or may be estimated.

Reference No. 6

Non-recurring costs (box modifications)

nonrec = 137.8 + .98 (mhrsest)

Where: nonrec = Non-recurring costs in FY84 SKmhrs est = Estimated installation manhours

and: Sample size = 6R2 (adj.) = .8072SEE = 149Mean = 283.7Range = nonrec: 16.4 to 921

mhrs est: 5 to 800

This CER is for estimation of box modification non-recurring

costs. The estimated manhours parameter comes from the expected

manhours to install reflected in the Technical Directive. This

estimate is generally higher than the reported installation

manhours. This parameter may not be known early-on, but will

eventually be available from the Technical Directive.

B. INSTALLATION jIT COSTS

Installation kit costs include the recurring costs of

manufacture and assembly of the retrofit kits for the system or

equipment affected by the modification. The prototype kit used

by the manufacturer for "validation" through installation in an

operating aircraft and the first production kit used by the NARF

IV-11

for "verification", also in an operating aircraft, are include

in the data base from which the CER was derived. The GFE or CF

black-box systems to be installed are not included with the kits

The learning curve reflected for kit costs in the OSIP dat

was derived during the last effort. This was an average learnin

curve slope of 98.5 percent (b = -. 0218). To adjust th

recurring kit costs obtained from the following CERs to quanti

ties other than 100, the following formula should be used:

kitcacQ = kit cacl 0 0 X 1.105 X Q-.0218

Where. kit cacQ = Kit cum. ave. cost for the quantitdesired

kitcacl 0 0 = Kit cum. ave. cost obtained frothe CERs

Q = Quantity of kits being estimated

Reference No. 7

Installation kit costs (box installations/removals)

kitcac = .01 (hw-cac) 1 ' 0 1 3 (uninst) 1 "5 9 6

Wnere: kit cac = Kit cum. ave. cost at unit 100 in FY8SK

hw cac = Cum. ave. cost of hardware at unit 10in FY84 $K

uninst = Number of units (components) installed

and: Sample size = 12R2 (adj.) = .8176SEE = .72 (+105 percent, -51 percent)Mean = 37.52Range = kit cac: .8 to 133

hw cac: 19 to 262un inst: 3 to 14

This CER estimates the recurring installation kit costs fc

installations and removals only. The CER is useful because i

utilizes parameters that should be available early on in th

program.

TV7-12

Reference No. 8


kit_cac = (hw-cac)" 8 3 0 4

Where: kit cac = Kit cum. ave. cost at unit 100 in FY84$Khw cac = Hardware cum. ave. cost at unit 100 in

FY84 $K

and: Sample size = 7R2 (adj.) = .7499SEE = 0.42 (+52 percent, -34 percent)Mean =61Range = kit cac: 10 to 133

hw cac: 17 to 262

This CER estimates the recurring installation kit costs for

box installations/removals. The data set was limited to cases

where the kit cost exceeds $10,000 as it was assumed that kits in

this cost range are of more interest to the estimator. Limiting

the data set also increased the R2 of the equation.

Reference No. 9


kit_cac = (hw-cac). 6 5 6 0

Where: kit cac = Cum. ave. cost of kit at unit 100 inFY84 $K


and: Sample size = 13R2 (adj.) = .4810SEE = 1.23 (+242 percent, -. 71 percent)Mean =35.4Range = kit cac: .8 to 133

hw cac: 17 to 262

This CER also estimates the recurring installation kit costs

for box installations/removals. This CER includes all data

pointz, unlike the previous CER (Reference No. 8). The R2

deteriorates with all data points included. However, the

IV-13

equation utilizes a parameter which should be available early on

in modification planning.

Reference No. 10


kit cac = .0619 (hwcac) + .0012(kit dims)

Where: kitcac = Cum. ave. cost of kit at unit 100 inFY84 $K


kit-dims Shipping dimensions of kit (inches 3 )

and: Sample size: = 8R2 (adj.) = .8927SEE = 12Mean = 24.31Range = kit cac: .8 to 117

hw cac: 19 to 159kit dims: 64 to 82944

This CER estimates recurring installation kit costs for box

installations/removals. The R2 is relatively high, but the kit

dimension parameter may not be readily available early on.

Reference No.11


kit cac = .0670(hwcac) + .3939(kit-wt)

Where: kit cac = Cum. ave. cost of kit at unit 100 inFY84 $K


kitwt = Shipping weight of kit (pounds)

and: Sample size = 12R2 (adj.) = .8839SEL = 16Mean = 34.1Range = kit cac: .8 to 133

hw cac: 17 to 262kit wt: 1 to 250

This CER estimates the in3tallation kit cost for box

installations/removals. As in the previous CER (Reference No.

IV-14

10), the kit weight parameter may not be readily attainable

early on. However, the equation offers a good R2 , if the

information is available.

Reference No. 12

Modification kit costs (box modifications)

kitcac = 2.111(uwtins) + 4.721(wir-chge)

Where: kit cac = Kit cum. ave. cost at unit 100 in FY84$Kuwt ins = Weight (pounds) of units (components)

installedwir-chge = Complexity factor for wiring change

and: Sample size = 12R2 (adj.) = .7549SEE = 109Mean = 81.41Range = kit cac: .1 to 758

uwt ins: 0 to 273wir-chge: 1 to 4

This CER estimates the recurring modification kit cost for

box modifications. The data set includes modifications where

there were eitL*er unit weight installed into the system, or a

wiring change to the system, or both. Categories used to define

the wiring changes are provided in Appendix C.

Reference No. 13

Modification kit costs (box modifications)

kit cac = 1.38(uwt_ins) + .7746(kitwt)

Where: kit cac = kit c"r,- ave. cost at unit 100 in FY84$Kuwt ins = Weigh, uh. nits (components) installedkit wt = Shipping weight of modification kit

and: Sample size = 19R2 (adj.) = .7715SEE = 83Mean = 67.15Range = kit cac: .1 to 758

uwt ins: 0 to 273kit wt: .25 to 350

This CER applies to black-box modifications only. The R2 is

relatively good, however the relationship utilizes parameters

(weight of units installed and shipping weight of kit) not

available early on.

C. MODIFICATION LABOR COSTS

Modification labor costs include costs for modification of

systems or equipment by depot rework, depot field team, commer-

cial rework or commercial field team. Organizational and

intermediate level installations do no% reflect costs in the OSIP

data. Costs include all labor-related costs for retrofit,

testing and TD verification. The modification labor costs are

funded under O&MN. Modification labor costs for trainers should

be accounted for as a separate item on the OSIP, and it is not

included in the following CERs.

The installation costs in the past-year OSIP data reflected

negligible learning. The reason may be that the modifications

are funded up-front, and the necessary funding for the installa-

tion is not constantly revised to reflect the actual learning

(reflected in the reported installat _n manhours). The funding

is based on "product-standard manhours" for each type of

modification, and they are revised only sporadically to reflect

the experienced actual installation labor hours. Also, the OSIP

installation costs may include some costs which are necessary

during the retrofit, but not directly related to the retrofit,

such as standardizing aircraft configurations, repair of

repairables, etc. Therefore, although the following CERs reflect

the "historical" price of installations, as reflected in the OSIP

data, they may not accurately reflect a consistent relationship

to the reported installation manhours.

There was more data available in the data base to derive

relationships for the installation manhours than for the

installation cost. Also, as the installation manhours may be

more reflective of the actual resources required for the

installation, it may be preferable to utilize the installation

manhour CERs in projecting expected installation labor require-

ments.

Reference No. 14

Modification labor costs (box installations/removals)

instcac = .0014 (kit_dims)

Where: inst cac = Cum. ave. cost of installation labor atunit 100 in FY84 $K

kit-dims = Shipping dimensions of kit (inches 3 )

and: Sample size = 10R2 (adj.) = .8605SEE = 26Mean = 40.93Range = inst cac: .9 to 235

kit-dims: 512 to 138240

This CER estimates installation labor costs for box

installations/removals. Although the relationship includes a

parameter not available early on, this CER was among the few

statistically valid relationships that could be derived for this

cost element.

IV--17

Reference No. 15

Modification labor costs (box installations/removals)

instcac = 4.68 + .2537 (kitcac)

Where: inst cac = Cum. ave. cost of installation labor atunit 100 in FY84 $K

kit cac = Cum. ave. cost of installation kit atunit 100 in FY84 $K

and: Sample size = 6R2 (adj.) = .9112SEE = 6Mean = 36.75Range = instcac: .57 to 55.1

kit cac: .8 to 199.6

This CER estimates the installation labor cost for box

installations/removals only. Although the kit cost parameter may

not be available, it can be estimated using one of the relation-

ships provided in this model.

Reference No. 16

Modification labor costs (box modifications)

inst cac = .4958 (uin/mod) + .2772(twtins)

Where: inst cac = Cum. ave. cost of installation labor inFY84 $K

uin/mod = Number of units installed plus modifiedtwt ins = total weight installed into the system

and: Sample size = 9R2 (adj.) = .7412SEE = 2Mean = 2.94Range = inst cac: .4 to 14.6

uin/mod: 1 to 4twt inst: 0 to 38.1

This CER estimates the modification labor costs for black-

box modifications only. It applies to basic kit installations

only, and does niot apply to t .ailer, spares or PSE installatiuiis.

Reference No. 17

Modification labor costs (box modifications)

inst cac = (kitcac)1 ' 0 3 8

Where: instcac Cum. ave. cost of installation labor atunit 100 in FY84 $K

kitcac = Cum. ave. cost of kit at unit 100 inFY84 $K

and: Sample size = 4R 2 (adj.) = .4228SEE = 0.71 (+102 percent, -51 percent)Mean = 8.52Range = inst cac: 3.4 to 14.6

kit cac: 2.1 to 12.9

This CER applies to box modifications only. The input

parameter, kit cost, may be estimated by relationships contained

in this model.

Reference No. 18

Modification labor costs (general)

inst cac = .0255 (kitdims)" 6 5 3 7

Where; inst cac = Cum. ave. cost of installation labor atunit 100 in FY84 $K

kitdims = Shipping dimensions of kit (inches 3 )

and: Sample size = 19R2 (adj.) = .6830SEE = .98 (+166 percent, -62 percent)Mean = 21.35Range inst cac: .4 to 235

kit-dims: 64 to 138240

This CER was derived using data points for both box

installation/removals and box modifications. The input parameter

may not be available, initially, but may become available as the

program progresses.

IV-19

Reference No. 19


instcac = .0014 (kit_dims)

Where: inst cac = Cum. ave. cost of modification labor atunit 100 in FY84 $K

kitdims = Shipping dimensions of kit (inches 3 )

and: Sample size = 19R2 (adj.) = .8711SEE = 19Mean = 21.35Range = inst cac: .4 to 235

kit-dims: 64 to 138240

This CER is for modification labor costs for both box

installations/removals and box modifications. Although the

input parameter, kit dimensions, may be difficult to obtain, the

R2 is relatively high.

Reference No. 20


inst cac = .2524 (kitcac) + 5.72


kit cac = Cum. ave. cost of kit at unit 100 irFY84 $K

and: Sample size = 11R2 (adj.) = .8255SEE = 7Mean = 126.64Range = instcac: .57 to 55.1


This CER is for modification labor costs for both bo)

installations/removals and box modifications. Although the input

parameter, kit cost, may not be known early on, it may becomE

available or may be estimated from a relationship within this

model.

IV-20

Reference No. 21


instcac = (kitcac) .9049


kit cac = Cum. ave. cost of kit at unit 100 inFY84 $K

and: Sample size = 10R2 (adj.) = .7586SEE = 0.68 (+98 percent, -50 percent)Mean = 12.56Range = instcac: .57 to 55.1


This CER estimates modification labor for both box instal-

lations/removals and box modifications. The limitation of the

relationship is that there must be a positive kit cost to

perform the estimate. The data set used for the regression

includes one outlier, which was excluded in deriving the

following relationship.

Reference No. 22


inst_cac = (kitcac) 1.064


kit cac = Cum. ave. cost of kit at unit 100 inFY84 SK

and: Sample size = 9R2 (adj.) = .7601SEE = 0.61 (+83 percent, -45 percentMean = 7.8Range = instcac: .57 to 21.2

kit cac: .8 to 12.9

This CER is the sam3 as the previous one, except the outlier

kit cost was excluded from the data set. It is used to estimate

modification labor costs for both box installations/removals and

box modifications. The limitation for its use is that there must

be a positive kit cost input parameter. (Some form-fit-function

modifications reflected no kit cost).

D. MODIFICATION MANHOURS

The following analysis was performed using the manhours to

perform modifications, as reported in the TDSA. The modification

manhours were all normalized to unit 100, as discussed in Section

II, Part C, Data Normalization. In order to translate the man-

hour estimates into modification labor costs, a labor rate is

required. Sources at NAVAIR indicated that the labor rate can

vary dramatically depending on current policies in effect, region

of the installing activity, and particular contractor. It is

suggested that the relevant labor rate to be expected for the

particular installer be applied to the following estimates.

However, in order to provide an estimated labor rate if

actual rates are unavailable, the following was performed.

Installation labor costs in the OSIP are funded up-front, based

on the estimated modification manhours. Therefore, the relation-

ship between estimated manhours and installation cost provides an

estimated labor rate. The relationship derived indicated an

average of 64$/manhour for modifications and 108$/hour for

installation/removals.

Analysis was performed to compare the actual reported

manhours from TDSA, normalized to unit 100, with the estimated

manhours shown on the Technical Directive and in TDSA. The

calculated average of reported (at unit 100) to estimated

manhours was 79 percent, based on 74 data points. (Four data

points were removed from the sample because calculated

percentages of <10 percent or >400 percent indicated that there

may be a reporting error in the data.) The average for box

installations/removals was the same as that for box

modifications.

The modification manhours include labor for retrofit,

testing, and technical directive verification for the change.

Reference No. 23

Modification manhours (box installations/removals)

mhrs_100 = .7810 (hw cac) + .0689 (aveqywt)

Where: mhrs 100 = Modification manhours at unit 100hw cac = Hardware Cum. ave. cost at unit 100 in

FY84 $Kaveq_wt = Weight of avionics equipment already

installed in the aircraft.

and: Sample size = 13R2 (adj.) = .8002SEE = 130Mean = 199.03Range = mhrs 100: 1.14 to 817

hw cac: 3.58 to 262aveq_wt: 385 to 6542

This CER applies to cases where there are both box installa-

tion(s) and box removal(s). The equation utilizes input

parameters which should be known early on.

Reference No. 24


mhrs_100 = .0046(uwtins).8005 (wir-chge+l) 5 "5 2 9

Where: mhrs_100 = Modification manhours at unit 100uwt Ins = Weight of units installed (pounds)wirchge = Complexity of wiring change

IV-23

and: Sample size = 17R2 (adj.) = .7112SEE = .88 (+141 percent, -59 percent)Mean = 296.64Range = mhrs_100: 8.08 to 817

uwt ins: 8.95 to 531.6wir-chge: 1 to 3

This CER estimates the manhours to perform box installa-

ion(s) where there is also at least one box removed. It does

not apply to form-fit-function replacements. The input para-

meters should be available early on in the program. Categories

used to define wiring change complexity are provided in Appendix

C.

Reference No. 25


mhrs_100 = .6503 (hw cac) + 1359 (cmplx)

Where: mhrs 100 = Modification manhours at unit 100hw cac = Cum. ave. cost of hardware at unit 100

in FY84 $Kcmplx = Percentage of total weight installed

and removed that is cabling

and: Sample size = 12R2 (adj.) = .9486SEE = 63Mean = 209.89Range = mhrs_100: 1.14 to 817

hw cac: 19 to 262cmplx: 0 to .49


tion(s) and box removal(s). The equation uses input parameters

that should be readily available.

TY7--.) A

Reference No. 26


mhrs_100 = .7567 (hw-cac) + 4.165 (othin)


in FY84 $Kothin = Weight of miscellaneous hardware

(brackets, etc.) plus cabling installed

and: Sample size = 12R 2 (adj.) = .9400SEE = 66Mean = 209.85Range = mhrs_100: 1.14 to 817

hw cac: = 19 to 262othin: 0 to 168


tion(s) and box removal(s). Although the R2 is relatively high,

the weight installed that is not part of the actual system may be

difficult to obtain.

Reference No. 27


mhrs_100 = .83(hw-cac) + 4.38(cabin) + .9237(cabrem)


in FY84 $Kcabin = Weight of cabling installed (pounds)cabrem = Weight of cabling removed (pounds)


hw cac; 21 to 262cabin: 0 to 117cabrem: 0 to 339.6

IV-25

This CER applies to cases where there are box(es) installed

and removed. The equation implies that the modification manhours

are directly related to the extent of the cabling change

required.

Reference No. 28


mhrs_100 = .8832(hw-cac) + .0008(kit_dims)


in FY84 $Kkitdims = Shipping dimensions of kit (inches 3 )


hw cac: 17 to 197kit dims: 64 to 82944

This CER applies to box installations/removals. The kit

dimensions appear to be the main driver in the equation. The kit

dimensions may not be available early on, but may become

available as the program progresses.

Reference No. 29


mhrs_100 = .1408 (hw-cac) + 2.353 (twtins)

Where: mhrs 100 = Modification manhours at unit 100hw cac Cum. ave. cost of hardware at unit 10C

in FY84 $Ktwt ins = Total weighc installed into aircraft

(regardless of weight removed)

and: Sample size = 12R2 (adj.) = .8570SEE = illMean = 209.85Range = nLhrs_100: 1.14 to 817

hw cac: 19 to 262twt ins: 20.7 to 311.4

This CER applies to cases where there are box installations

and removals. The total weight installed includes the system

hardware installed, plus miscellaneous hardware and cabling.

Reference No. 30

Modification manhours (box modifications)

mhrs_100 = .9743 (kit wt)

Where: mhrs_100 = Modification manhours at unit 100kit wt = Shipping weight of kit (pounds)

and: Sample size = 35R2 (adj.) = .7142SEE = 110Mean = 70.52Range = mhrs_100: .86 to 1160.97

kit wt: .25 to 1000

This CER applies to box (system) modifications only.

Although the kit weight may be difficult to obtain early on, it

was found to be the only significant cost driver for box

modifications. The data set includes all data points.

Reference No. 31


mhrs_100 = 1.025 (kit wt)

Where: mhrs 100 = Modification manhours at unit 100kit wt = Shipping weight of kit (pounds)

and: Sample size = 13R2 (adj.) = .7078SEE = 170Mean = 182.61Range = mhrs 100: 10.14 to 1160.97

kit wt: .25 to 1000

This CER is the same as the previous CER, except that only

those data points with modification manhours greater than 10 were

included. This relationship applies to box modifications only.

IV-27

Reference No. 32


mhrs_100 = 32.1 (wirchge) + .8262 (kit wt)

Where: mhrs_100 = Modification manhours at unit 100wirchge = Complexity of wire changekitwt = Shipping weight of kit

and: Sample size = 32R2 (adj.) = .7410SEE = 110Mean = 60.82Range = mhrs 100: .86 to 1160.97

wirchge: 0 to 4kit wt: .6 to 1000

This CER applies to box modifications only.

Reference No. 33


mhrs_100 = 40 (wir-chge) + .8413 (kit wt)

Where: mhrs 100 = Modification manhours at unit 100wirchge = Complexity of wire changekit wt = Shipping weight of kit (pounds)

and: Sample size = 12R2 (adj.) = .7063SEE 171Mean = 198.44Range = mhrs_100: 10.14 to 1160.97

wir_chge: 1 to 4kit wt: .5 to 1000

This CER applies to box modifications only. It uses the

same parameters as the preceding relationship, however the data

set was limited to those cases where the manhours exceeded 10.

Reference No. 34

Modification manhours (general)

mhrs_100 = 2.738 (hw-cac)

Where: mhrs _00 = Modification manhours at unit !00hw cac Cum. ave. cost of hardware at unit 100

in FY84 $K

IV-28

and: Sample size = 14R2 (adj.) = .6036SEE 2162Mean = 194.05Range = mhrs_100: 1.14 to 817

hw cac: 1.1 to 262

This (;FR applies to all cases. It was derived using box

installation/removal and box modification data points. Although

the R2 is not high, it was listed because the input parameter

should be available early on.

Reference No. 35

Modification manhours (general)

mhrs_100 = 1.928 (hwcac) + 8.085 (unin+rem)


in FY84 $Kunin+rem = Number of units installed plus removed

and: Sample size = 12R2 (adj.) = .7047SEE 168Mean = 208.47Range = mhrs_100: 1.7 to 817

hw cac: 1.1 to 262unin+rem: 4 to 26

This CER applies to cases wheze units are both installed

and removed. The data set used to derive the relationship

included only those data points where there were units both

installed and removed, and there were no units modified.

Reference No. 36

Modification manhours (generalj

mhrs_100 = 1.94G (td prep) + 1.388 (kit wt)

Where: mhrs 100 = Modification manhours at unit 100td-prep = Cost of non-recurring technical

dirzctive preparation ini FY84 SKPkit wt = Shipping weight of kit (pounds)

IVr-29


tdprep: 3.4 to 233.4kit wt: 3 to 250

This CER applies to all cases. It was derived using data

points of both box installations/removals and box modifications.

APPENDIX A

CER DOCUMENTATION

Appendix A contains the documentation for the CERs included

in the model discussed in Section IV. The reference number

indicated at the top right-hand side of each page corresponds to

the CERs, as numbered in the model. The order of the documenta-

tion is as follows:

* Descriptive Statistics;

"* Residual Plot;

"* Standard Plot of Fitted versus Actual Values;

* Data Set; and

* Graph of Independent versus Dependent Values (forsingle variable, linear relationships), or Actualversus Fitted Values (for several variables orexponential equations).

Ref.

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: nonrec

FIGHT-EAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC P5VAFIAELE COEFFICIENT EEROR

box-ins 615,383870968 ( 109.19212) T= 5.63579 0.

vFLE SIZE( I to 11) = 11 (DF=10)I OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 3696105.041935

VARIANCE (MSE) = 369610.504194iDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) = 607.956005

R-SQUARED = 0.686096ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = 0.654706

-STATISTIC( 1, 10) = 31.762129 (p= 0 .0002)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -1411.625806

JRBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.101383

Source SUM SQ DF MEAN SQ-- -- - --- -- -- - -- -- -- ---- -- ---- -

Due to Regression 1,544E+007 1: 1.544E+007:Residual 3.696E+006: 10: 3.696E+005:

Total 1.913E+007 ii: 1.739E+006:-------- -------- -- - - - - - - - - - ---------- ___

CE

Residual Plot

Residual Ilin.=-771.77 Mean=-128.33 1224.85= Max.(* ) -- - -... -- - - -.. .+ . . M--0+ ....-- ....-- -...-- -.. .-+- ....- -....- -

1224.85340.23 *

-175.771 -430.77 *. -771.77

406.52-543.38 -

-581.36 *-607.38

41.62-314 .38

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted nonrec Min.= 8.00 3071.00= Max.(*) (+) -+----- 4 ------------------------------------

1 1846.15 3071.00 +2 1230.77 1571.00 +3 1230.77 1055.00 04 1230.77 800. OC +5 1230.77 459.00 + 06 615.38 1021.90 +7 615.38 72.00 +8 615.38 34.00 :+9 615.38 8.00 :+

10 615.38 657.00 *+11 615.38 301.00 + *

osnum osyr boxins nonrec Fitted Residual

26.00 79.00 3.00 3071.00 1846.15 1224.85104.00 79.00 2.00 1571.00 1230.77 340.2347.00 81.00 2.00 1055.00 1230.77 -175.7760.00 82.00 2.00 800.00 1230.77 -430.775.00 75.00 2.00 459.00 1230.77 -771.77

47.00 81.00 1.00 1021.90 615.38 406.525.00 75.00 1.00 72.00 615.38 -543.38

21.00 82.00 1.00 34.00 615.38 -581.386.00 83.00 1.00 8.00 615.38 -607.38

104.00 79.00 1.00 657.00 615.38 41.6221.00 79.00 1.00 301.00 615.38 -314.38

3 -i

2.81

2.6 - j

2.4

1.28

1.62

1.4

1.2 -

0.4

0.20i I i i '

1 2 3 4

Ref. #2


RcGFT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB,VAFIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I twt-ins 1.398150815 0.36588) T= 3.82133 0.0122 Constant 524.697021713 ( 120.90544) T= 4,33973 0.007

SATIFLE SIZE( 52 to 58) = 7 (DF=5)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 276599.562475

VARIANCE (MSE) = 55319.912495TANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) = 235.201855


F-STATISTIC( 1, 5) = 14.602562 (p=0.0281)SUM OF RESIDUALS = 0.000000

DURBIN-WAISON STATISTIC = 1.911252

Source SUM SQ DF 1 MEAN SQ

:Due to Regression 1.084E+006 1: 1.084E+006Residual 2.766E+005 5: 55319,912:

Total 1.361E+006: 6: 2.268E+005

[END]

Residual Plot

.eq. x58 Min.=-257.25 Mean=O.00 304.12= Max.(* ) -- ----- ----- ---- ... -- -- M O. -- - - -- ----0 - ... --..--...-.. . -..-- -52 -18.39 *53 94.92 *54 -223.53 *55 304.1256 213.78 *57 -113.65 *58 -257.25

Ref. t2

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted nonrec Min.=301,00 1589.39= Max.(• ) (+ ) -4 ....-- -...-- --..-- --. .-- --..-- --..-- -.... + -....- -....- -....- +

52 1589.39 1571.005. 96,).08 1055.00 * +54 880 53 657.00 + *55 717 .78 1021.90 *56 586.22 800.00 +57 572 .65 459.0058 556.25 301.00 +

osnum osyr twtins nonrec Fitted Residual

104.00 79.00 761.50 1571,00 1589.39 -18.3947.00 81.00 311.40 1055.00 960.08 94.92104.00 79.00 254.50 657.00 880.53 -223.5347.00 81.00 138.10 1021.90 717.78 304.1260. 00 82.00 44.00 800 .00 586.22 213.785.00 75.00 34.30 459.00 572.65 -113.65

21.00 79.00 24.00 301.00 558.25 -257.25

1.7 -

1.6

1.5

1.4 1

1.3

1.2• 1.1

ri 0 .

0.7

0.6 !

0.5

0.4

0 200 40 0ýo Soo

twtlrmsV2 Actuc! - l~t

Ref. 03

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: NONREC

EIGHT-HAN: ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC FROB,VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I BOXIN 2.337614074 ( 0.95239) T= 2.45448 0.0402 WIRCH+1 1.975124028 ( 0.95498) T: 2.06823 0,0723 Constant 3.101858599 C 0.96792) T= 3.20465 0.013

SAMPLE SIZE( 46 to 56) = 11 (DF=8)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 11.926790

VARIANCE (NSE) = 1.490849STANDARD ERROR (FOOT MSE) = 1.221003

F-SQUARED m 0.635493ADJUSTED F-SQUARED = 0.544366


DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.973227

Source SUM SQ : DF : MEAN SQ-- - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - -: '- - - -- - - -:Due to Regression 32.720: 2 16.360:

Residual 11.927 8 : 1.491!Total 44.647l i0: 4,4W5

[END)

Standard Plot

seq. residual Min.=-949.21 Mean=135,76 1925.87= Max.(*) -+----+----+----+-OM-+-----+------+----+----+----------

46 -694.21 *47 -949.21 *48 1925.87 *

49 -530.6150 581.39 *51 311.51 *52 826.44 *53 105.5454 -79.5855 -15.58 :56 11.80

Ret. #3

osnum osyr boxins wir-chge nonrec fitted residual

47.00 81.00 2.00 3.00 1055.00 1749.21 -694.2160.00 82.00 2.00 3.00 800.00 1749.21 -949.2126.00 79.00 3.00 1.00 3071.00 1145.13 1925.87

5,00 75.00 2.00 2.00 459.00 989.61 -530.61104.00 79.00 2.00 2.00 1571.00 989.61 581.39104 00 79,00 1.00 3.00 657.00 345.49 311.5147.00 81,00 1.00 2.00 1021.90 195.46 826.4421.00 79.00 1.00 2.00 301.00 195 46 105.546.00 83.00 1.00 1.00 8.00 87.58 -79.585.00 75.00 1.00 1.00 72.00 87.58 -15.58

21.00 82.00 1.00 0.00 34.00 22.20 11.80

Standard Plot

5eq. nonrec fitted Min.= 8.00 3071.00= Max.(*) (+ ) -- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------÷ . .. + ... -- -

46 1055.00 1749.21 * +47 800.00 1749.21 * +48 3071.00 1145.13 +49 459.00 989.61 +50 1571.00 989.61 +51 657.00 345.49 +52 1021.90 195.46 +53 301 00 195.46 + *54 8.00 87.58 :+55 72.00 87.58 @56 34.00 22.20 @

Ref. t3

4

3.5 - 1

II 2

0.5

o-

0 1 2 3 4CTh ou(ant)

Ref. #4


PIGHT-HASE ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROVARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I mhrs_100 12.935112728 ( 0.23273) T= 55.58013 0,0


VARIANCE (MSE) = 3052.065345STANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) = 55.245501


F-STATISTIC( 1, 3) = 3089.150375 (p=0.0000)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -111.254777


Source SUM SQ I DF MEAN SQ------------ ------------- ------------

:Due to Regression 9.437E+006: 11 9.437E+006!Residual : 9156.196: 3 3052.065:

Total : 9.447E+006: 41 2.362E+006:

[EN

Residual Plot

seq. x63 Min.=-93.96 Mean.-27.81 5.38= Max.(*) ----------------- ------------- +.... --- - ... ------ ----- -0--÷-1 5.38 1 .

2 -93.96 1*3 -15.93 1 * *4 -6.75 •

Ref. #4

Standard Plot

Fitted nonrec Min.= 8.00 3071.00= Max.(•) (+ ) -+- --- +------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----.-+-. ..-+- ....- -

1 3065.62 3071.00 @2 165.96 72.00 + *

3 49.93 34.00 +*4 14.75 8.00 @

osnum osyr mhrs_100 nonrec Fitted Residual

26.00 79.00 237.00 3071,00 3065.62 5.385.00 75.00 12.83 72.00 165.96 -93.96

21.00 82.00 3.86 34.00 49.93 -15.936.00 83.00 1.14 8.00 14.75 -6.75

&4-3.2 -

3 -

2-.-

2-2-

" " 2-

30 1.6

1.4

1.2

I

0.8

0.6

0.4

10 - !'I i 1

0 40 50 120 160 200 240

mAtl-1( 0

Ref. t5


FIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB.VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERFOR

I kitcac 0.970224240 ( 0.21082) T= 4.60207 0.0192 Constant 187.898916305 ( 71.47265) T= 2.62896 0.078

SAMPLE SIZE( I to 5) = 5 (DF=3)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 60858.808639

VARIANCE (MSE) = 20286.269546STANDARD ERROR (FOOT MSE) = 142.429876




Source SUM SQ DF MEAN SQ

:Due to Regression 4.905E+005 1 4.905E+005:Residual 60858.809: 3 20286.270:

Total 5.514E+005 4: 1.378E+005:

(END]

Residual Plot

seq. x60 Min.=-162.50 Mean=0.00 181.59: Max.(*) ----- +- --------- -+--NMO ---- +----+----+-----+----+-

1 -2.33 :.2 181.593 17.424 -34.19 *5 -162.50

Ref. #5

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted nonrec Min.= 25.50 923.33=- Max.(X ) (+ ) - - . .... ----- --- -- -- --- -

1 92•.33 921.002 197.41 370-.00 *3 1B8.58 206.00 0+4 188.19 154.00 + *5 188,00 25.50 :+

osnurD osyr kit-cac nonrec Fitted Residual

49.00 82.00 758.00 921.00 923.33 -2.33114.00 83.00 9,80 379.00 197.41 181.59104.00 83.00 0.70 206.00 188.58 17.4290.00 82.00 0.30 154.00 188.19 -34.1947.00 81.00 0,10 25.50 188.00 -162.50

0.9

0.8

0.7

ct 0.4 -

0.3

0.2 4-,0.15

0

0 200 400 600

Idtcoc0 Actual - Ffttod

Ref. #6OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: nonrec

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB.VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I mhrs_est 0.978236874 ( 0.20885) T= 4.68400 0.0092 Constant 137.843793940 ( 68.34619) T= 2.01685 0.114



F-SQUARED = 0.845797ADJUSTED P-SQUARED = 0.807246

F-STATISTIC( 1, 4) = 21.939854 (p=0.00 9 4 )SUM OF RESIDUALS = 0.000000



:Due to Regression 1 5.762E+005 11 5.762E+005:Residual : 88853.127: 4: 22213.282:

Total 6.651E+005 5 1.330E+005:

[END]

Standard Plot

seq. Residual Min.=-128.00 Meai=0.00 232.06= Max.(*) ------- ----- ----- MO. -- - - - - - -- - - - ----0+. . . .+ . . + . . . .+ . .-- -1 0.57 •2 -23.95 : .3 45.66 *4 -128.00 *5 232.066 -126.33 *

Ref. *6

Standard Plot

eq. Fitted nonrec Min.= 16.40 921.00= Max.( )(4 ) -+ ---- * ---- --- ... -- - - -. .. --...--.. .- -...-+-...--... --.. .- -

1 920.43 921.002 177,95 154.00 +*3 160.34 206.00 * +4 153.50 25,50 *5 146.94 379.00 *6 142.73 16.40 + *

osnum osyr mhrs-est nonrec Fitted Residual

49.00 82.00 800.00 921.00 920.43 0.5790.00 82.00 41.00 154.00 177.95 -23.95

104.00 83.00 23.00 206.00 160.34 45.6647.00 81.00 16.00 25.50 153.50 -128.00

114.00 83.00 9.30 379.00 146.94 232.06114.00 83.00 5.00 16.40 142.73 -126.33

0.9

0.3-

0.2 -

C.1

o -: i6

0 20 400 6 800

mhrs-_wtIl -f~ttd

Ref. #7

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: EITCAC

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROSVAiXIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I HWCAC 1.013084116 ( 0.23118) T= 4.38221 0.00:2 UCINS 1.595859835 ( 0.39425) T= 4.04787 0.003 Constant -4.609636197 ( 1.05722) T= -4.36016 0.00:


VARIANCE (iSE) = 0.517464TANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) = 0.719350


F-STATISTIC( 2, 9) = 25.661536 (p:O.0002)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -0.000000


Source : SUM SQ DF MEAN SQ

Due to Regression 31.215: 21 15.608:Residual 4.657: 9: 0.517:

Total 35.872: II! 3.261!

[END

Standard Plot

seq. residual Min.=-48.85 Mean=1.07 32.37= Max.(* ) - ÷ ----- ----- ----- ----- --- -- ----+ . . . M . . . .- - . . .- -- . ..-+- . ..--- -46 3.95 .

47 -48.85 1148 27.61 :49 -14.41 *50 32.37 ,51 14.54 *52 -7.07 *53 -3.0854 3.65 *55 5.50 :56 -0.99 *

57 -0.34 •

Ref. W7

Standard Plot

seq. fitted kit-cac Min.= 0.80 133.00= Max.

46 129.05 133.0047 110.85 62.00 + *48 89.39 117.00 * +49 35.41 21.00 + *50 18.63 51.00 *+51 18.46 33.00 * +52 12.17 5.10 + *53 10.78 7.7054 6.05 9.70 +55 3.40 8.90 * +56 1.99 1.00 @57 1. 14 0.80 @

osnum osyr hwcac in-inst kit-cac fitted residual

104.00 79.00 262.00 11.00 133.00 129.05 3.95104.00 79.00 262.00 10.00 62.00 110.85 -48.8547.00 81.00 159.00 12.00 117.00 89.39 27.6160.00 82.00 50.00 14.00 21.00 35.41 -14.41

117.00 84.00 79.00 7.00 51.00 18.63 32.3726.00 79.00 133.00 5.00 33.00 18.46 14.5462.00 82.00 197.00 3.00 5.10 12.17 -7.075.00 75.00 31.00 9.00 7.70 10.78 -3.0815.00 80.00 98.79 3.00 9.70 6.05 3.6547.00 81.00 25.00 5.00 8.90 3.40 5.506.00 83.00 21.00 4.00 1.00 1.99 -0.995.00 75.00 19.00 3.00 0.80 1.14 -0.34

Ref. #7

1401

130 -0

120 4110

soo

S6050

90

30

20 ,40

0 20 40 s0 80 100 120 140

kWt_coc (actual)

Ref. #8

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: KITCAC

RIGHT-HAtNZ ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROI

VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

1 HWCAC 0.830413207 ( 0.03352) T= 24.77596 0.0(




F-STATISTIC( 1, 6) = 613.848138 (p=0.O000)SUM OF RESIDUALS = 0.030071



Due to Regression 107.266: 1 107.266Residual 1.038 6 0.173:

Total 108.304: 7 15.472:-- - - --- - - - -- - - - - - ----------

[EN]

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Min.= -0.53 Mean=O.00 0.56= Max.(* ) -4 ....-- -...-- ....- + ....- ----- M+ ....-- -...-- -.. .-+- .... + -....- -

46 0.27 *47 -0.48 *48 C.56 *

49 -0.53 *50 0.32 *51 -0.16 *52 0.05

Ref. W8

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted kit-cac Min.r 10.00 133.00= Max,

46 101.90 133.00 *+47 101.90 62. 00 + *48 67.30 117.00 +49 58.03 33.00 + *50 37.65 51.00 * +51 25.75 21.00 + *52 10.51 10,.00 C"

osnum osyr hw-cac kit-cac Fitted Fesidual

104.00 79.00 262.00 133.00 101.90 31.10104,00 79.00 262.00 62.00 101.90 -39.9047.00 81.00 159.00 117.00 67.30 49.7026.00 79.00 133.00 33.00 58.03 -25.03

117,00 84.00 79.00 51.00 37.65 13.3560.00 82.00 50.00 21.00 25.75 -4.7568.00 79.00 17.00 10.00 10.51 -0.51

140-

130

120

110

100

90

70o

60 -

50 -

40

30 -

20

10 -

I I I I i 1i i '

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 14-0

tc aoc (actual)

Ref. #9

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: KITCAC

FIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROO.


1 HWCAC 0.655973871 ( 0.07869) T= ,33568 0.000



F-SQUARED = 0.520651ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = 0.480705



Source SUM SQ DDF MEAN SQ

:Due to Regression 1 122.695 1 122.695:Residual1 18.069: 12: 1.506:

Total 140.764 13 10.828:

[END]

Standard Plot

seq. residoal Min.=-26.90 Mean=l6.08 94.42= Max.(*) -+- ----- ---... + --- +-M --+-- ----- ....- +- ...-- -.. .-- -.... + -....- +

46 94.42 *

47 23.42 *48 -26.90 *

49 89.20 *50 8.2751 -10.6552 33.43 *

53 7.98 *54 -1.8155 0.64 *

56 -6.37 *

57 -6.10 *58 3.59 *

Ref. #9

Standard Plot

eeq. fitted kit-cac Min.7 0.80 133.00= Max.* ) ~(+ ) --+ --- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --+-...-- -...-- -....- -

46 3F 58 133. 00 *+47 38.58 62.00 * +48 32.00 5.10 + *49 27.80 117.00 *50 24.73 33.00 * +

51 20.35 9.70 +52 17 .57 51 .00 *+53 13. 02 21 .00 * +54 9.51 7 .70 @55 8.26 8. 9056 7.37 1 .0 + *57 6.90 0.80 :+ *58 6.41 10.00 *+

oenum) osyr KITCAC HWCAC hw_cac kitcac fitted

104 .00 79.00 4.89 5.57 262,00 133.00 38.58104.00 79.00 4.13 5.57 262.00 62.00 38.5862.00 82 .00 1 .63 5.28 197.00 5.10 32.0047.00 81.00 4.76 5.07 159.00 117.00 27.8026.00 79.00 3.50 4.89 133.00 33.00 24.7315.00 80.00 2.27 4.59 98.79 9.70 20.35

117.00 84.00 3.93 4.37 79.00 51.00 17.5760.00 82.00 3. 04 3.91 50.00 21.00 13.025.00 75.00 2.04 3.43 31.00 7.70 9.51

47.00 81.00 2.19 3.22 25.00 8.90 8.266.00 83.00 0.00 3.04 21.00 1.00 7.375.00 75.00 -0.22 2.94 19.00 0.80 6.90

68.00 79.00 2.30 2.83 17.00 10.00 6.41

Ref. *9

140-

1Q0

120

110

100

90

a o

70 0

60

40-a a

10

30

0 20 40 so so 100 120 140

Idt-coc (acuaol)

A-22

Ref. #10

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: kit-cac

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PRVAKIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

1 hw-cac 0.061925316 ( 0.05300) T= 1.16845 O.2 kit-dims 0.001245379 ( 0.00018) T= 6.92703 0.



R-SQUARED = 0.919541ADJUSTED F-SQUARED = 0.892721



Source SUM SQ 1 DF 1 MEAN SQ

Due to Regression 15385.150i 2 7692.575:Residual 1 873.187: 6 145.5311

Total 16258.337: 8 2032.292:

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Min.=-19,55 Mean:-1.13 15.85= Max.(*) -+------ ----- ----- -----.. -÷-.... M-0-+- ....-- ....-- -...- +- ....- -46 3.86 *47 -19.55 j*48 -12.70 *49 15.8550 5.71 *51 -4.69 *52 2.9853 -0.46

Ref. #10

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted kit-cac Min, 0.80 117.00= Max.

46 113.14 117.00 : * +;

47 28.45 8.90 +48 17.80 5.10 + *49 17.15 33,00 +*50 15.29 21,00 +*51 5.69 1.00 :+ *52 4.72 7.70 *+53 1.26 0.80 I@

osnum osyr hw-cac kitdims kit.cac Fitted Residual

47.00 81.00 159.00 82944.00 117.00 113.14 3.8647.00 81.00 25.00 21600.00 8.90 28.45 -19.5562.00 82.00 197.00 4500.00 5.10 17.80 -12.7026.00 79.00 133.00 7161.00 33.00 17.15 15.8560.00 82.00 50.00 9792.00 21.00 15.29 5.716.00 83.00 21.00 3528.00 1.00 5.69 -4.695.00 75.00 31.00 2250.00 7.70 4.72 2.985.00 75.00 19.00 64.00 0.80 1.26 -0.46

120 -

110 -1

2DO -

70

Go

80 "

70

30

10

40

0 20 40 60 s0 1o 120

_t cOc (octuol)

Ref. 4I:

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: kit.cac

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD T-STATISTIC PRVARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

1 hw-cac 0.066978950 ( 0.05593) T= 1.19751 0.2 kit.wt 0.393900187 ( 0.06712) T= 5.66822 0.

SAMPLE SIZE( 46 to 57) = 12 (DF10)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 2536.412546


R-SQUAEED = 0.903272ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = 0,883926

F-STATISTIC( 2, 10) = 68.158919 (p=O.0000)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -42.511270


Source ! SUM SQ DF MEAN SQ

-- - - - -- - - - : -- - - - - - ----------

Due to Regression 1 37112.2401 2 18556.120:Residual 2536.413: 10 253.641:

Total 39648.653: 12 3304.054:

-- -- - -- - - - -- - - - -- -- --------- [1

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Min.=-37.62 Mean=-3.54 20.92= Max.(*) -÷ ....---...--- ...-- ....- + ....- -----M+-O- - - - ----+-..+ . .. + . .-- -

46 20.9247 7.83 *48 -14.63 *49 -37.6250 -4.0151 9.12 *52 -16.37 *53 -3.0454 -0.65 *55 1.9056 -5.1357 -0.87

Ref. Wii

Standard Plot

aeq. Fitted kit-cac Min.= 0.80 133.00= Max.

46 112.08 133.00 *

47 109.12 117.00 *+

48 76.63 62.00 *49 47.62 10.00 +50 25.01 21,00 +*51 23.88 33.00 * +52 21.47 5.10 + *53 10.74 7.7054 9.55 8.90 @55 7.80 9.70 @56 6.13 1.00 :+ *57 1.67 0.80 i@

osnum osyr kitwt hw.cac kit-cac Fitted Residual

104.00 79.00 240.00 262.00 133.00 112.08 20.9247.00 81.00 250.00 159.00 117.00 109.12 7.88

104.00 79.00 150.00 262.00 62.00 76.63 -14.6368.00 79.00 118.00 17.00 10.00 47.62 -37.6260.00 82.00 55.00 50.00 21.00 25.01 -4.0126.00 79.00 38.00 133.00 33.00 23.88 9.1262.00 82.00 21.00 197.00 5.10 21.47 -16.375.00 75.00 22.00 31.00 7.70 10.74 -3.04

47.00 81.00 20.00 25.00 8190 9.55 -0.6515.00 80.00 3.00 98.79 9.70 7.80 1.906.00 83.00 12.00 21.00 1.00 6.13 -5.135.00 75.00 1.00 19.00 0.80 1.67 -0.87

A-26

Ref. Oil

140 -

130

120

110 -

100

90

r, so

u 70

u1 60

50 -

40

30

20 -10-

10-

o 20 40 60 s0 100 120 140

Idt•ac (actuol)

Ref. t12

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: kit-cac

RIGHT-HAý.! ES7IMATED STANDARD T-STATISTIC PROBVARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I uwt-ins 2.110605251 ( 0.51639) T= 4.08725 0.002 wiirchge 4.720593501 ( 25.01102) T= 0.18874 0.85




F-STATISTIC( 2, 10) = 19.628723 (p=0.0003)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -356,753743


Source SUM SQ DF MEAN SQ------------- ------------- ----- i------------S

:Due to Regression 5.694E+005 2: 2.947E+005:Residual 1.197E+005ý 10: 11966.0781

Total 7.091E+005: 12: 59089.9341- - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

[ENI

Residual Plot

seq. Residual Min.=-269.40 Mean=-29.73 161.23= Max.(*) -- --------------- ----- --..+ -.... -+ M--+O- - - - -------..+. .. ÷. . ---

1 161.23 *

2 -269.40 *3 -61.53 *4 -74.87 *5 -60.74 *6 -31.37 *7 -37.76 *8 -26.93 *

10 66.9611 -4.62 *12 1.38 *

Pef. #12

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted kit-cac Min.= 0,10 758.00z Max.(* ) (+ ) -- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------+-.... --....- -....- -

1 596,77 758.00 ; +2 269.60 0.20 :+3 153.73 92.20 4 *4 88.17 13.30 t *5 62.84 2.10 + *6 44.27 12.90 + *7 39.86 2.10 + *8 37.93 11.00 +9 21.61 2.50 +*

10 9.44 76.40 *11 4.72 0.1012 4.72 6.10 @

oenum osyr wir_chge uwt-ins kitcat Fitted Residual

49.00 62.00 4.00 273.80 758.00 596.77 161.238.00 78.00 1.00 125.50 0.20 269.60 -269.40

23.00 79.00 1.00 70.60 92.20 153.73 -61.5331.00 82.00 2.00 37.30 13.30 88.17 -74.878.00 78.00 2.00 25.30 2.10 62.84 -60.7422.00 78.00 2.00 16.50 12.90 44.27 -31.3722.00 78.00 1.00 16.65 2.10 39.86 -37.7622.00 79.00 2.00 13.50 11.00 37.93 -26.93

104.00 79.00 1.00 8.00 2.50 21.61 -19.11104.00 79.00 2.00 0.00 76.40 9.44 66.96

7.00 72.00 1.00 0.00 0.10 4.72 -4.628.00 78.00 1.00 0.00 6.10 4.72 1.38

Ref. #12

800

700

800

-' 500

400O

300

2000

100

00 200 400 600 800

Wt-coc (actual)

A-30

Ref. #l

OLJS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: kit-cac

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD T_STATISTIC PR,VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I uwtjins 1,382795263 ( 039194) T= 3.52808 0.2 kit.wt 0.774648779 ( 0.28121) T= 2.75474 0.




F-STATISTIC( 2. 17) = 38.144472 (p=0.000)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -222.424522


Source SUM SQ : DF 1 MEAN SQ- - -------------- ----------- ---- :------------

:Due to Regression 6.373E+005: 2: 3.187E+005:Residual 1 1.161E+005: 17: 6831.571:

Total 7.534E+005: Ag: 39655.093:- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -4 _ _ I - - - - - - -

Residual Plot

seq. x58 hin.=-174.12 Mean:-11.71 206.90= Max.(* ) -- - - - - -... --- -..• . . . .• - - . .• . . .• . . . .• . .-- -

1 108.262 -174.123 -126.33 *4 -44.16 *5 -39.80 :6 -53.77 *7 -46.40 :*8 -41.84 *9 -41.41 *

10 -10.11 I11 -16.31 *12 206.9013 2.90 *14 -261 *15 4.16 *16 -0.67 *17 -0.5818 53.74 *19 -0.29

A-31

Ref. t13

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted kit-cac Min.= 0.00 758.00= Max.(* ) (+ ) -- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------.. ÷ .... ÷1 649-74 758,00 *+

2 174.32 0,20 + *3 154.93 28.60 + *

4 136,36 92.20 + *

5 116,20 76.40 + *6 67.07 13.30 + *7 57.40 11.00 + *8 43,94 2.10 + *9 43,51 2.10 :+ *

10 23.01 12.90 *

11 18.81 2.50 +*12 3.10 210.00 *13 3.10 6.00 @14 2.71 0.10 :15 1.94 6.10 :

16 0.77 0.10 @17 0.58 0.00 @18 0.46 54.20 * +19 0.39 0.10 @

osnum osyr uwtins kit.wt kit-cac Fitted Residual

49.00 82.00 273.80 350.00 758.00 649.74 108.266.00 78.00 125.50 1.00 0.20 174.32 -174.12

104.00 79.00 0.00 200.00 28.60 154.93 -126.3323.00 79.00 70.60 50.00 92.20 136.36 -44.16

104.00 79.00 0.00 150.00 76.40 116.20 -39.8031.00 82.00 37.30 20.00 13.30 67.07 -53.7722.00 79.00 13.50 50.00 11.00 57.40 -46.4022.00 78.00 16.65 27.00 2.10 43.94 -41.84

8.00 78.00 25.30 11.00 2.10 43.51 •4• 4122 .00 78.00 16.50 0.25 12.90 23.01 -10.11

104.00 79.00 8.00 10.00 2.50 18.81 -16.31102.00 79.00 0.00 4.00 210.00 3.10 206.90201.00 83.00 0.00 4.00 6.00 3.10 2.9047.00 81.00 0.00 3.50 0.10 2.71 -2.618.00 78.00 0.00 2.50 6.10 1.94 4.16

104D00 79.00 0.00 1.00 0.10 0.77 -0.671.00 77.00 0.00 0.75 0,00 0.58 -0.588.00 78.00 0.00 0.60 54.20 0.46 53.747.00 72.00 0.00 0.50 0.10 0.39 -0.29

A-32

Ref. #i:

700 -~

600

400

.X 300

200a

100

0 - ý I I I --

0 200 400 600 Soo

Wt-COC (actual)

Ref. #14

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: inst-cac

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PFOB.


1 kit_dims 0.001382677 ( 0,00015) T 9 9.00591 0.000

SAMPLE SIZE( 46 to 55) = 10 (DF:9)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 6051.853433





Source SUM SQ 1 DF MEAN SQ

,Due to Regression 60590.056 : 60590.0561Residual 6051.853 91 672.428:

Total 66641.909: 10: 6664.191:

[END]

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Min.=-47.34 Mean=-3.29 43.86= Max.(* ) -- - -.... ---.. ---... ---... --... M+0 ---- --... ---.. . -+-. ..- --...-+46 43.8647 -47.3448 -41.71 *49 -2.22 *

50 11.3451 -1.3852 3.3653 0.54 *54 0.19 *55 0.48 *

Ref. #14

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted inst-cac Min.= 0.09 235.00= Max.* ) ( + ) -- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------.. ÷ .... ÷46 191.14 235.00 ; +47 102.44 55.10 +48 86.01 44.30 +49 6.22 4.00 @50 5.66 17.00 * +51 5.38 4.00 @52 3.11 6.47 @53 1.06 1.60 '@54 0.71 0.90 ;@55 0.09 0.57 j@

osnum osyr kit-dims instcac Fitted Residual

10.00 77.00 138240.00 235.00 191.14 43.861.00 77.00 74088.00 55.10 102.44 -47.34

53.00 72.00 62208,00 44.30 86.01 -41.7162.00 82.00 4500.00 4.00 6.22 -2.2262.00 82.00 4096.00 17.00 5.66 11.3453.00 72.00 3888.00 4.00 5.38 -1.38

5.00 75.00 2250.00 6.47 3.11 3.3653.00 72.00 768.00 1.60 1.06 0.54

1.00 77.00 512.00 0.90 0.71 0.19

240-

2.20

200-

180

160

140

.I 1200

100

80

Co

40 Q

204

0 20 40 so so 100 120 140(Thousonds)

idtdlms0 actual - fitted

Ref. t15

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Inst_cac

EIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB.VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I kit-cac 0.2!3667706 ( 0.03508) T= 7.23142 0.0022 Constant 4.684378484 ( 2.86282) T= 1.63628 0.177

ýAMPLE SIZE( 46 to 51) - 6 (DF=4)BUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 156.812895

VARIANCE (MSE) = 39.203224rANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) = 6.261248

R-SQUARED = 0.928944ADJUSTED P-SQUARED = 0.911180



Source : SUM SQ : DF : MEAN SQ

:Due to Regression 2206.886: 1: 2206.886:Recidual 156.813! 4: 39.203:

Total 2363.698: 5: 472.7'0:-------------------------------------------- -----------

[END]

Standard Plot

;eq. Residual Min.= -4.32 Mean=0.00 10.82= Max.(*) -+- ------.....----- M+ ....- +....-+- ...---.. .-+-...---....--....-+

46 -0.22 *47 -0.1748 10.8249 -1.98 *50 -4.14 *51 -4.32 *

Ref. t1!

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted kit-caz Min.= 0.80 199,60= Max.

46 55.32 199.60 +:47 6.64 7.70 *+

48 C.18 5.90 ' @49 5.98 5.1050 5.04 1.40 l+* -51 4.89 0.80

osnum osyr inst_cac kit-cac Fitted Residual

1.00 77.00 55.10 199.60 55.32 -0.22

5.00 75.00 6.47 7.70 6.64 -0.17

62.00 82.00 17.00 5.90 6.18 10.82

62.00 82.00 4.00 5.10 5.98 -1.98

1.00 77.00 0.90 1.40 5.04 -4.14

5.00 75.00 0.57 0.80 4.89 -4.32

50-

•1 30 -

20

10

0 20 40 60 s0 100 120 140 160 150 200

r3 actual - fired

Ref. #16

OLE -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE! inst_cac

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PPOB.VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I uln/mod 0,495842650 ( 0.37583) T: 1.31934 0.2292 twtins 0.277150701 ( 0.05272) T= 5.25662 0.001


VARIANCE (MSE) = 4.638172STANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) 2.153641





:Due to Regression 238.406 2 119.203

Residual 32.467: 7 4.638:Total 270.874: 9 30.097:

[END]

Residual Plot

seq. x60 Min.= -4.42 Mean=-0.08 3.05= Max.(*) _+- ------------------- --- + ... -----MO ---------------------..1 3.052 -4.42 *3 0.424 -1.45 *5 -0.07 *6 1.017 0.01 *8 0.20 .*9 0.50 *

Ref. t16

Standard Plot

t3eq. Fitted inst-cac Min.= 0.40 14.60: Max.

1 11.55 14.60 *2 7.82 3.40 + *3 1.98 2.40 *+4 1.85 0,40 :+ *5 1.49 1.42 @6 0.99 2.00 * 47 0.50 0.51 @8 0.50 0.70 *+9 0.50 1.00 * +

osnum osyr uin/mod twt-ins instcac Fitted Residual

22.00 78.00 2.00 38.10 14.60 11.55 3.0522.00 78.00 2.00 24.65 3.40 7.82 -4.42

101.00 83.00 4.00 0.00 2.40 1.96 0.4253.00 72.00 1.00 4.90 0.40 1.85 -1.4518.00 80.00 3.00 0.00 1.42 1.49 -0.0710.00 77.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.99 1.0118.00 80.00 1.00 0.00 0.51 0.50 0.0127.00 25.00 1.00 0.00 0.70 0.50 0.201.00 77.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.50 0.50

Ref. f16

16

15

14

13

12

10S U

Il 7

- 6

5

4

1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Iort..Cae (actual)

A-40

Ref. #17

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIAELE: INSCAC

F:GHT-HANI) ESTIMIATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB,

VAFIAKLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I RITCAC 1.037729424 ( 0.17619) T= 5.85988 0,010


VARIANCE (MSE) : 0.498236STANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) = 0.705859

F-SQUARED = 0.567128ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = 0.422838

F-STATIST"C( 1, 3) = 34.690690 (p=0.0098)SUM OF RESIDUALS = 0.062899


Source SUM SQ : DF MEAN SQ

:Due to Regression 18.779; ; 18.779:Residual 1.495: 3: 0.498

i Total 20.274: 4: 5.068:

(END:

Standard Plot

seq. residual Min.= -4.02 Meanl1.69 9.16: Max.(* ) -- --- -* ----- --- 0 . ..--- +M....-- -- ...---- . .---- ...--- -...- -

1 0.39 *2 9.16 *

3 -4.02 *4 1.24 *

Standard Plot

seq, fitted inst-cac Min.r 2.16 21.20= Max.(* ) (+ ) -- ----. * ..----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- .... --....- -....-+

1 14.21 14,60 *+2 12.04 21.20 *3 6.42 2.40 + *

4 2.16 3.40 * +

Ref. 017

o0--um osyr inst_cac kit cac fitted residual

22.00 78.00 14.60 12.90 14.21 0.362.00 82.00 21.20 11.00 12.04 9.16

101.00 63.00 2.40 6.00 6.42 -4.0222.00 78.00 3.40 2.10 2.16 1.24

14 -

13

IC

12 -

Z Z

11 .,

4-

21

0 2 4 6 10 12 14 16

wt (ac tual)

Ref. #18

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: INSCAC

FICHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB,VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I KJTDIMS 0.653656245 ( 0.10364) T= 6.30710 0,0002 Constant -3,669295653 ( 0.83901) T= -4.37337 0.000

SAM!PLE SIZE( I to 19) = 19 (DF=17)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 16.285015



F-STATISTIC( 1, 17) = 39.779545 (p:0.0286)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -0.000000


Source SUM SQ DF MEAN SQ--. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- --

!Due to Regression 54.392 ii 54.392!Residual 16.285: 17: 0,958:

Total 70.6771 18: 3.926!

[END]

Standard Plot

seq. residual Min.= -7.49 Hean=lO.72 176.82= Max.(*) -+-O-M+ .... ÷ ....---...- +-. ..- +-.. .---...---.... + -....- -....- +

1 176.822 16.40 *3 9.78 *4 11.17 .

5 -4.026 6.12 *7 2.53 .8 -1.64 *9 -2.20 .

10 -3.40 .11 -0.00 *12 -0.55 *13 --0.35 *14 1.00 :15 0.21 *16 -0.60 *17 0.19 *18 -0.34 *19 -7.49

Ref, t18

Standard Plot

ýeq. fitted inEt_cac Min,= 0,38 235.00= Max,

1 58.18 235.00 *2 38.70 55.10 * +3 34.52 44.30 * +

4 5.83 17,00 * +5 18.62 14.60 ÷*6 4.78 10.90 *+7 3.94 6.478 5.64 4.009 .20 4.00

10 6.80 3.40 @11 2.40 2.40 :@12 2.55 2.00 :13 1.95 1.60 @14 0.42 1.42 !@15 0.79 1.00 @16 1.50 0.90 @17 0.38 0.57 @18 0.85 0.51 @19 7.89 0.40 ÷ *

osnum osyr kit-dims inst-cac fitted residual

10.00 77,00 138240.00 235.00 58.18 176.821.00 77.00 74088.00 55.10 38.70 16.40

53.00 72.00 62208.00 44.30 34.52 9.7862.00 82.00 4096.00 17.00 5.83 11.1722.00 78.00 24192.00 14.60 18.62 -4.0253.00 72.00 3024.00 10.90 4.78 6.125.00 75.00 2250.00 6.47 3.94 2.53

53.00 72.00 3888.00 4.00 5.64 -1.6462.00 82.00 4500.00 4.00 6.20 -2.2022.00 78.00 5184.00 3.40 6.80 -3.40

101.00 83.00 1056.00 2.40 2.40 -0.0010.00 77.00 1152.00 2.00 2.55 -0.5553.00 72.00 768.00 1.60 1.95 -0.3518.00 80.00 72.00 1.42 0.42 1.00

1.00 77.00 192.00 1.00 0.79 0.211.00 77.00 512.00 0.90 1.50 -0.605.00 75.00 64.00 0.57 0.38 0.19

18.00 80.00 216.00 0.51 0.85 -0.3453.00 72.00 6500.00 0.40 7.89 -7.49

A-44

Ref. W1

240-

22/0

200-

180

160

S 14,0

I'0

S 120-

S100o

so

60

40

20-1

0 40 so 120 160 200 240

Instcoc (actual)

Ref. #19

OLS -- DEFENDTNT VARIABLE: instcac

FIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB.VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I kitdims 0.001365231 ( 0.00011) T= 12.24249 0.000

SAMPLE SIZE( I to 19) = 19 (DF=i8)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 6534.738665

VARIANCE (MSE) = 363.041037STANDARD ERROR (ROOT HSE) = 19.053636


F-STATISTIC( 1, 18) = 149.878493 (p=O.OO00)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -47.962403

DUPBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.469369

Source SUM SQ DF : MEAN SQ

!Due to Regression 60946.782: 1 60946.782:Residual 6534.739: 18: 363.041:

Total 67481.521: 19; 3551.659:[END)

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Hin.=-46.05 Mean=-2.52 46.27= Max.(*) -+------ ----- ---...-- ....---- M-O ....- +- ...- +- .. .-- -....- -....- -1 46.272 -46.05 ;*3 -40.63 :4 -18.43 *5 -8.476 -3.68 •7 -2.148 11.41 *9 -1.31

10 6.77 *11 3.4012 0.43 *12 0.96 *14 0.55 *15 0.20 *i6 0.22 *17 0.74 *18 1.3219 0.48 *

Ref. #19

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhrs-OO0 Min.= 0.09 716.25= Max.C* ) (+ ) -- ----. * ..----- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- ---+-....- -....- -....-+1 188.73 716.252 101.15 465.32 * +

83 4.93 567.16 * +4 33.03 178.13 * +

5 8.87 4.73 +*6 7.08 29.89 1* +7 6.14 149.00 !* +8 5.59 391.00 :* +9 5.31 51.09 :* +

10 4.13 139,89 i*11 3.07 138.22 * +12 1.57 5.01 @13 1.44 2.64 @14 1.05 20.18 *+15 0.70 7.58 :*+16 0.29 1.68 1@17 0.26 8.42 *+18 0.10 4.70 :@19 0.09 12.83 *+

240T D

200

180160

140

04• T l• I• - -

0 20 40 so so 1D 120 140

I I I I iZO• •r l-

I III oi i

iC-~n100dp

Ref. #19

oanum osyr kit-dims instcac Fitted Residual

10.00 77.00 138240.00 235.00 188.73 46.271.ý0 77.00 74088.00 55.10 101.15 -46.05

53.00 72.00 62208.00 44.30 84.93 -40.6322.00 78.00 24192.00 14.60 33.03 -18.4353.00 72.00 6500.00 0.40 8.87 -8.4722.00 78.00 5184.00 3.40 7.08 -3.6862.00 82.00 4500.00 4.00 6.14 -2.1462.00 82.00 4096.00 17.00 5.59 11.4153.00 72.00 3888.00 4.00 5.31 -1.3153.00 72.00 3024.00 10.90 4.13 6.775.00 75.00 2250.00 6.47 3.07 3.4010.00 77.00 1152.00 2.00 1.57 0.43

101.00 83.00 1056.00 2.40 1.44 0.9653.00 72.00 768.00 1.60 1.05 0.551.00 77.00 512.00 0.90 0.70 0.20

18.00 80.00 216.00 0.51 0.29 0.221.00 77.00 192.00 1.00 0.26 0.7418.00 80.00 72.00 1.42 0.10 1.325.00 75.00 64.00 0.57 0.09 0.48

Ref. #20

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: inst_cac

FIGET-HANrl ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB.VAFIAELE COEFFICIENT EFROR

i kitcac 0.252395864 ( 0.03632) T= 6.94934 0.0002 Constant 5.719094931 ( 2.19809) T= 2.60185 0.029

SAMPLE SI2E( 1 to 11) = 11 (DE=9)SUe, OF SQUAFED RESIDUALS = 409.517036


R-SQUAFED = 0.842914ADJUSTED R-SQUARED n 0,825460

F-STA'IISTIC( 1, 9) = 48,293309 (p=0.0098)SUN OF RESIDUALS = 0 .000000

DUEBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1,670023

Source SUM SQ 1 DF MEAN SQ...............------------- ------------ I

Due to Regression : 2606.954: ii 2606.954:Residual 409.517: 98 45.502:

Total 3016.471: i0: 301.647:

[END)

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Mir.= -5.35 Hean=0.00 12.70= Max.(* ) -+ . . . .- - . . . .- - - -- -M O -- - -- - - -- - -- - - --. .- -..- -. . . . . . . .-- -1 -1.00 *2 5.62 *3 12.70 *4 -1.19 *5 -4.836 9.79 *7 -3.0 *8 -2.85 *9 -5.17

10 -f-.3511 -4.72

Ref. #20

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted instcac Nin.= 0.57 56.10= Max.

1 56.10 55.102 8.98 14.60 * +3 8.50 21.20 *+4 7.66 6.47 ÷*5 7.23 2.40 + *6 7.21 17.00 *7 7.01 4.00 18 6.25 3.40 + *9 6.07 0.90 :+ *

10 5.92 0.57 :+ *11 5.72 1.00 + *

osnum osyr kit-cac inst-cac Fitted Residual

1.00 77.00 199.60 55.10 56.10 -1.0022. 00 78.00 12.90 14.60 8.98 5.6262.00 82.00 11.00 21.20 8.50 12.705.00 75.00 7.70 6.47 7.66 -1.19

101.00 83. 00 6.00 2.40 7.23 -4.8362.00 82. 0 5 90 17.00 7.21 9.7962 00 82.00 5 10 4.00 7.01 -3.0122.00 78.00 2.10 3.40 6.25 -2.851.00 77.00 1.40 0.90 6.07 -5.175.00 75.00 0.80 0.57 5.92 -5.351.00 77.00 0.00 1.00 5.72 -4.72

Ref. #1

60 -

50

40

30

20

10

0 20 40 60 so 100 120 140 160 150 200

IdtkcocC actual - fitted

Ref. t21

OLS -- DEpENDENT7 VAFIABLE: INSCAC

FIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB.VAFIAELE COEFFICIENT ERROR

K .IAC 0.904907261 0. 09280) T= 9.75156 0.000



R-SQUARED z 0.782754ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = 0.758615

F-STATISTIC( 1, 9) = 95,092845 (p=0.0038)SUM OF RESIDUALS = 0.663114


Source SUM SQ DF : MEAN SQ---------------- ------------- ------------ I

:Due to Regreesion 48.614: 1: 46.614:Residual 4.2031 9! 0.467!

Total 52.818: 10: 5.282:

[END]

Standard Plot

seq. residual Min.=-65.52 Mean=-3.87 12,44= Max.(* ) -- - - - - -- - - - - - ----. . + . . . . . .+ .. .* . . --- +- - + . .. -

1 -65.52 *2 12,443 12.024 4.48 *5 0.13 *6 -0.37 *7 1.44

8 -2.60

9 -0.46 *10 -0.25 *

Ref. #21

Standard Plot

seq. fitted instcac Fin.= 0.57 120.62= Max.

1 220.62 55.10 ÷2 8.76 21.20 * +3 4.98 17.00 *4 10.12 14.60 * 4

5 6.34 6.47 @6 4.37 4.007 1.96 3.408 5.06 2.40 +*9 1 .36 0.90 :@

10 0.82 0. 57 :@

osnum osyr INSCAC KITCAC inst.cac kit-cac fitted residual

I .00 77.00 4.01 5.30 55.10 199.60 120.62 -65.5262.00 82 .00 3.05 2.40 21.20 11.00 8.76 12.4462.00 82.00 2.83 1.77 17.00 5.90 4.98 12.0222.00 78.00 2.68 2.56 14.60 12.90 10.12 4.485.00 75.00 1.87 2.04 6.47 7.70 6.34 0.1362.00 82.00 1.39 1.63 4.00 5.10 4.37 -0.3722.00 78.00 1.22 0.74 3.40 2.10 1.96 1.44

101.00 83.00 0.88 1.79 2.40 6.00 5.06 -2.661.00 77.00 -0.11 0.34 0.90 1.40 1.36 -0.465.00 75.00 -0.56 -0.22 0.57 0.80 0.82 -0.25

2O00

190 -150-

170 -

150

140-

130" " 120 -

S110S 100-

90 o

" " 80

7060

5040

0 20 40 so so 100 120 140 160 180 200

A-t_CK (5 tUO3 )

A-53

Ref. #22

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: INSTCAC

FIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROB.VA~iAELE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I XITCAC 1.063389132 ( 0.11830) T= 8.98879 0.000




F-STATISTIC( 1, 8) = 80.798403 (p=O.O000)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -0.621164

DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 2. 93134


'Due to Regression 32.5411 32.541:Residual 2.9321 8 0.366:

Total 35.473 9 3.941:

[END]

Standard Plot

seq. residual Min.= -4.32 Mean=l.16 10.40= Max.<*) -- ----- ----- ----.... 0--M -+---- .-- ....- +- ...- +- .. .-- -.... +-....-+

2 -0.57S0 .o .. . . ..4 -2.29 *5 -4.32 *6 10.407 -1.65 *8 1.20 *9 -0.53 *

10 -0.22

Ref. #22

Standard Plot

seq. fitted inrstcac Min.= 0.57 21.20= Max.

2 15.17 14.60 +*3 12.81 21.20 *4 8.76 6.47 +* ,5 6.72 2.40 +*6 6.60 17.00 *7 5.65 4.00 + *8 2.20 3.40 * +9 1.43 0.90 4*

10 0.79 0.57 :+*

osnum osyr kitcac inst_cac fitted residual

22.00 78.00 12.90 14.60 15.19 -0.5962.00 82,00 11.00 21.20 12.82 8.385.00 75.00 7.70 6.47 8.77 -2.30

101.00 83.00 6 .00 2.40 6.73 -4.3362.00 82.00 5.90 17.00 6.61 10.39C2.00 82.00 5.10 4.00 5.66 -1.6622.00 78.00 2.10 3.40 2.20 1.201.00 77. OC 1 .40 0.90 1.43 -0.535.00 75.00 0.80 0.57 0.79 -0.22

Z2-

20-

18

16

140

uE312

10 1

6 4a2162

4-

2 C)

00

0 4 812 16 20

hwt_coc (Octua?)

Ref. -23

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhrs-100

RIGHT-HAS! ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROEVAEIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I hw-cac 0.783046379 ( 0.50688) T= 1.54090 C.IE2 aveq-wt 0.068914563 ( 0.01756) T: 3.92486 O.OC

SAMPLE SIZE( 46 to 58) = 13 (DF11)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 184957.571532



F-STATISTIC( 2, 11) 36.115540 (p=0.0000)SUM OF RESIDUALS -439.742049

DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC 1.695942


Due to Regression 1.399E+006 2: 6.997E+005Residual 1 1.850E+005: Ii 16814.325:

Total 1.584E+006: 13: 1.219E+005

LEN]

Residual Plot

seq. x63 Min.=-190.02 Mean=-33.83 241.97= Max.(*) -+----------.--....----M-4-0O - - - - - - - ----- .. .-. . . . . .+. .-- -46 85.73 *47 241.9748 -190.02 j*49 -169.02 *50 53.5251 -70.22 *52 -151.66 *53 -125.55 *54 34.41 *55 -10.99 *56 -56.80 *57 -39.35 *58 -41.79 *

Ref. *23

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhres100 Min.= 1.14 817.00= Max.* (+ ) -÷ ... - ... - ... - ... - ... - ... - ... - ... - .. . ... - ÷ _ ------ ----

46 649.27 735.00 +47 575.U3 817.00 *

48 470.37, 280.35 + *49 318.02 149.00 +*50 183.48 237.00 * +51 167.72 97. 052 166.69 15.03 + *53 156.76 31.21 + *54 103.81 138.22 * +55 80.29 69.30 +*56 69.63 12.83 + *57 43.21 3.86 + *58 42.93 1.14 1+

osnum osyr hwcac aveq-wt whre_100 Fitted Residual

104.00 79.00 262.00 6452.00 735.00 649.27 85.7347.00 81.00 159.00 6542.00 817.00 575.03 241.9747.00 81.00 25.00 6542.00 280.35 470.37 -190.0262.00 82.00 197.00 2382.00 149.00 318.02 -169.0226.00 79.00 133.00 1155.00 237.00 183.48 53.5260.00 82.00 50.00 1867.00 97.50 167.72 -70.22

117.00 84.00 79.00 1523.40 15.03 166.69 -151.6615.00 80.00 98.79 1155.00 31.21 156.76 -125.555.00 75.00 31.00 1155.00 138.22 103.81 34.414.24 82.00 3.58 757.00 69.30 80.29 -10.995.00 75.00 19.00 795.00 12.83 69.63 -56.30

21.00 82.00 21.00 389.00 3.86 43.21 -39.356.00 83.00 21.00 385.00 1.14 42.93 -41.79

A-57

Ref. 023

900

700

600-

0

I 400

E 300

200

100

0 200 400 68

mhrs_100 (actual)

Ref. t2

OLS -- DEPENLEtNT VARIABLE: MHRS_100

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD T-STATISTIC PROBVARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I UWTIN 0.800467486 ( 0,24945) T= 3.20890 0.002 WIECH-1 5.529238671 ( 1.15200) Tz 4.79968 0.003 Constant -5.388408137 ( 1.60187) Tz -3.36383 0.00


VARIANCE (MSE) = 0.781759ITANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) = 0.884171

R-SQUARED - 0.747342ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = 0.711248

F-STATISTIC( 2, 14) = 20.705481 (p=O.0001)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -0.000000


Source SUM SQ DF : MEAN SQ-- -- I I

--- -- -- -- -- -- - -- -- -- -- -----------Due to Regression 43.318: 2: 21.659:

Residual 10.945: 14: 0.782!Total 54.2631 161 3.391:

---------------- ------------- ------------ I

[ENE

Standard Plot

seq. residual Min.=-888.54 Meanr28.01 339.46= Max.(* ) --- - -- - -- - -- - -- - -- - OM .. .--..- -..-+. ..-.. .--. . --+ . .+ . . ---52 313.24 *53 292.17 *54 285.55 *55 3S,.4656 -888.5457 141.22 *58 203.61 *59 -149.46 *60 61.25 :61 107.92 *62 -86.26 *63 -43.2964 -59.0065 -18.7766 3.39 *67 -2.36 *68 -24.02

Ref. *24

Standard Flot

eq. fitted mhrs_100 Min.z 1.17 1455,70= Max.( (+) -- -- -- -- - -- -- -- ----+4 -+ • ------ ----- ----- ----- -...-- -

52 503.76 817,00 +53 442.83 735.00 * +54 430.70 716.25 +55 339.00 678.46 +56 1455,70 567.16 +57 324.10 465.32 * +58 76 74 280.35 +59 393.76 244.30 +60 87.75 149.00 * +

61 30.30 138.22 * +

62 183.76 97.50 +63 114.01 70.72 + *

64 96 72 37 .72 4 *65 33.80 15.03 +*66 10.52 13.91 g67 11.30 8.94 @68 32.10 8.08 +*69 1.17 +

osnum osyr uwtins wir-chge mhrs_100 fitted residual

47.00 81.00 141.10 3.00 817.00 503.76 313.24104.00 79.00 120.10 3.00 735.00 442.83 292.1710.00 77.00 116.00 3.00 716.25 430.70 285.558.00 78.00 86.00 3.00 678.46 339.00 339,46

53.00 72.00 531.60 3.00 567.16 1455.70 -888.541.00 77.00 81.30 3.00 465.32 324.10 141.22

47.00 81.00 98.10 2.00 280.35 76.74 203.6171.00 82.00 103.70 3.00 244.30 393.76 -149.4662.00 82.00 116.00 2.00 149.00 87.75 61.255.00 75.00 30.70 2.00 138.22 30.30 107.92

60.00 82.00 40.00 3.00 97.50 183.76 -86.26100.00 81.00 160.90 2.00 70.72 114.01 -43.29100.00 81.00 131.00 2.00 37.72 96.72 -59.00117.00 84.00 35.20 2.00 15.03 33.80 -18.77

7.00 72.00 135.00 1.00 13.91 10.52 3.397.00 72.00 8.95 2.00 8.94 11.30 -2.3648.00 74.00 33.00 2.00 8.08 32.10 -24.02

Ref. #2

1.5-

1.4 -

1.3

1.2

1.1

1z

S 0.9

0.8 -" 0.7 -

Ix 0.70. 0.6

0.3

U.2

0.10 In

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6(Thousonds)

mhrs•10 (actuoa)

Ref. 425

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhrs_100


1 hwcac 0.650319983 ( 0.22636) T= 2.87290 0.0172 cmplx 1359.417196884 ( 134.26091) T= 10.12519 0.000

SAMPLE SIZE( 46 to 57) = 12 (DF=10)SUM OF SQUARED PESIDUALS = 39436.648293






Due to Regression 1.395E+006 2: 6.973E+0051Residual 39436.648: 10: 3943.665:

Total 1.434E+006: 121 1.195E+005:

(END]

Residual Plot

seq. x62 Min.=-73.40 Meanzll.37 118.06= Max.(*) ----------------... ----- 0+-M--+- ....-- ....---. ..-+-....--....--46 -73.4047 48.4148 49.96 *49 -0.92 *50 91.59 *51 -33.04 *52 -48.60 *53 43.06 *54 -36.35 *55 118.0656 -9.80 *57 -12.52 *

Ref. #25

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhrs-100 Min.= 1.14 e17.00: Max.(*) (+ ) --+ -... ----- ----- --... ...----.+ ....-- ....- ------- -----------+

46 808.40 735.00 : *47 768.59 817.00 * +:46 230.39 280.35 * +49 149.92 149.00 050 145.4! 237.00 * +51 64.25 31.21 + *52 61.43 12.83 + *53 54.44 97,50 * +54 51.38 15.03 + *55 20.16 138.22 * +56 13.66 3.86 +*57 13.66 1.14 +*

oanum osyr hwcac cmplx zhrs100 Fitted ReBidual

104.00 79.00 262.00 0.47 735.00 808.40 -73.4047.00 81.00 159.00 0.49 817.00 768.59 48.4147.00 81.00 25.00 0.16 280.35 230.39 49.9e62.00 82.00 197.00 0.02 149.00 149.92 -0.9226.00 79.00 133.00 0.04 237.00 145.41 91.5915.00 80.00 98.79 0.00 31.21 64,25 -33.04

5.00 75.00 19.00 0.04 12.83 61.43 -48.6060.00 82.00 50.00 0.02 97.50 54.44 43.06

117.00 84.00 79.00 0.00 15.03 51.38 -36.355.00 75.00 31.00 0.00 138.22 20.16 118.06

21.00 82.00 21.00 0.00 3.86 13.66 -9,806.00 83.00 21.00 0.00 1,14 13.66 -12.52

Ref. t25

9o0

700

700

400

E 500

400

3003

1000) 0

C 200 400 60 O00

nmhrv_100 (actual)

Ref. #26

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE; mhrelQO0

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD T-STATISTIC PROVARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

1 hw-cac 0.756666244 ( 0.23203) T= 3.26100 0.02 othin 4.165277671 ( 0.43774) T= 9.51550 0.0

SAMPLE SIZE( 46 to 57) = 12 (DF:10)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 44133.503771





Source SUM SQ DF MEAN SQ-- - - - -- - - - I a--------- -------------- I

:Due to Regression 1.395E+006: 2: 6.973E+005:Residual 44133.504! 10 4413.350:

Total 1.439E+006: 12: 1.199E+005:-- - - - -- - - - -- - - - - - ----------

[EN

Residual Plot

seq. x60 Min.=-73.90 Mean:6.32 105.12= Max.(*) -- ------ ----- ------. ---.... OM -- +- ....-- ....- +- . ..-+- .... +-....-+46 -4.3347 -23.06 *48 94.8249 -12.56 *50 105.1251 -73.90 j*52 -43.54 *53 43.01 O54 -41.19 *55 -43.91 *56 99.7757 -24.46 *

Ref. 026

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhrs.100 Min.= 1.14 821.33= Max.(*) ~(+) -- - -... --....---...- --...---...- --...- +....-+....-÷ ....--....--

46 821.33 817.0047 758.06 735.00 +048 185.53 280.35 * +49 161.56 149.00 +*5C 131.88 237.00 * + -

51 88.93 15.03 + *52 74.75 31.21 + *53 54.49 97.50 * +

54 45.05 3.86 1+ *55 45.05 1.14 :+ *56 38.45 138.22 * +57 37.29 12.83 4*

osnum osyr othin hw-cac mhrs100 Fitted Residual

47.00 81.00 168.30 159.00 817.00 821.33 -4.33104.00 79.00 134.40 262.00 735.00 758.06 -23.0647.00 81.00 40.00 25.00 280.35 185.5b 94.8262.00 82.00 3.00 197.00 149.00 161.56 -12.5626.00 79.00 7.50 133.00 237.00 131.88 105.12

117.00 84.00 7.00 79.00 15.03 88.93 -73.9015.00 80.00 0.00 98.79 31.21 74.75 -43.5460,00 82.00 4.00 50.00 97.50 54.49 43.0121.00 82.00 7.00 21.00 3.86 45.05 -41.196,00 83.00 7.00 21.00 1.14 45.05 -. 43.915.00 75.00 3.60 31.00 138.22 38.45 99.775.00 75.00 5.50 19.00 12.83 37.29 -24.46

Ref. W26

900 -T

700-

400-

E 300

200

to6 0

0 200 400 600 Boo

mhrul 00 (Gctuul)

Ref. #27

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhrsi.O0


I hwcac 0.829954267 ( 0.27004) T= 3.07347 0.0132 cabin 4.379863949 ( 0.90432) T= 4.84329 0.0013 cabrem 0.923762569 ( 0.29141) T= 3.16993 0.011



R-SQUARED 0.948461ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = 0.931282

F-STATISTIC( 3, 9) 82.190603 (p=O.O010)SUM OF RESIDUALS : 188.674689


Source SUM SQ DF 1 MEAN SQ--- -- -- ---- -- : -- -- -- -- - --------- I

Due to Regreseion 1.395E+006 3: 4.649E+005Residual 49113.583 9: 5457.065

Total 1.444E+008 12: 1.203E+005:-- - - - -- - - - :-------- -------------- a

[EFD)

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Min.:-50.78 hean15.72 114.79= Max.(* ) -- ----- -----. ---... 0 ---- M -- - -- - - -- - -- - - 4 .. .-. . . . . .÷ . .-- -46 2.5447 -35.26 *48 -27.6449 113.93 *50 114.79 •51 -50.78 *52 -50.54 *50 50.70 *54 112.4955 -11.70 *56 -13.5757 -16.29 *

Ref. #27

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhrs._100 Min.= 1.14 817.00= Max.C*) (+) -- ---------- ----- ----- ----- ---------- ----- ------* . .. ÷ ... -- -46 814.46 817.00 0:47 770.26 735.00 +48 176.64 149.00 4 *

49 166.42 280.35 * +50 122.21 237.00 * +51 81.99 31.21 + *52 65.57 15.03 453 46.80 97.50 * +54 25.73 138.22 * a

55 24.53 12.83 @56 17.43 3.86 4*57 17.43 1.14 +*

osnum osyr cabrem cabin hw-cac mhrs_100 Fitted Residual

47.00 81.00 339.60 84,20 159.00 817.00 814.46 2.54104.00 79.00 43.70 117.00 262.00 735.00 770.26 -35.2662.00 82.00 0.00 3.00 197.00 149.00 176.64 -27.6447.00 81.00 5.50 32.10 25.00 280.35 166.42 113.9326.00 79.00 0.00 2.70 133.00 237.00 122.21 114.7915.00 80.00 0.00 0.00 98.79 31.21 81.99 -50.78

117.00 84.00 0.00 0.00 79.00 15.03 65.57 -50.5460.00 82.00 1.00 1.00 50.00 97.50 46.80 50.705.00 75.00 0.00 0.00 31.00 138.22 25.73 112.495.00 75.00 0.00 2.00 19.00 12.83 24.53 -11.7021.00 82.00 0.00 0.00 21.00 3.86 17.43 -13.576.00 83.00 0.00 0.00 21.00 1.14 17.43 -16.29

Ref. W27

600

200

I 400

100 -- Di•

01

0 200 400 600 800

mhrs_100 (actial)

Ref. #28

OLS *-- DEPENDENT VARIA1 LE: mhrsa100

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROBVARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

1 hw cac 0.883232395 ( 0.31964) T= 2.76321 0.022 kit_aims 0.007951035 0.00103 T= .74829 0.00

SAMPLE SIZE( 46 to 54) = 9 (DF=7)SUM OF SQUAPED RESIDUALS 38511.158802

VARIANCE (MSE) 5501.594115STANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) 74.172732

R-SQUARED 0.920247ADJUSTED R-SQUARED 0.897461

F-STATISTICF 2 7 = 75.973643 (pz0.00 0 0 )

DURBIN-WATSON PATH

Source SUM SQ DF_ MEAN SQ'Due to Regression I 8.745E+005 1 4 .372E+005 1

Residual 38511.159 7 5501.5941Total 9.130E+005 1 911 .014E+005 1

------------------------------ -------------- ------------- II . .. . . . I . . . . . . . I[ENr

Residual Plot

seq. x60 Min.=-108.60 Mean=l.70 92.95= Max.

46 17,C 447 -108.60 *48 -60.78 *49 86.f350 62.5951 -24.52 *52 -45.4653 92.95 .54 -4.46 1

Ref. #28

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhrs_100 Min.= 1.14 817.00= Max.

46 799.92 817.00 *÷:47 254.31 145.71 ÷ *48 209.78 149.00 + *49 193.82 280.35 *50 174.41 237.00 +51 122.02 97.50 +*52 46,60 1.14 + *53 45.27 138.22 +54 17 .29 12.83

csnum osyr kit-dims hw-cac mhre100 Fitted Fesidual

47.00 81.00 82944.00 159.00 817.00 799.92 17.0868.00 79.00 30096.00 17.00 145.71 254.31 -108.6062.00 82.00 4500.00 197.00 149.00 209.78 -60.7847.00 81.00 21600.00 25.00 280.35 193.82 86.5326.00 79.00 7161.00 133.00 237.00 174.41 62.5960.00 82.00 9792.00 50.00 97.60 122.02 -24.526.00 83.00 3528.00 21.00 1.14 46.60 -45.465.00 75.00 2250.00 31.00 138.22 45.27 92.955.0'C 75.00 64.00 19.00 12.83 17.29 -4.46

900 -

800

700

GDO -

600

40 0

300

200 -C

00T

0 200 430 60 0Ornhfv-'- (octul)

Ref. 2ý2

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhrsAlO0

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD ?-STATISTIC PR(VARIAELE COEFFICIENT ERROR

1 hw_cac 0.140820637 ( 0.51140) T= 0.27537 0.'2 twtins 2.353405834 ( 0.46302) T= 5.08276 0,1

SAMPLE SIZE( 46 to 57) = 12 (PFUG)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 123830.165795


R-SQUARED = 0.880813ADJUSTED B-SQUARED = 0.656975

F-STATISTIC( 2, 10) = 51.313900 (p=O.O000)SUM OF RESIDUALS = -338.824551


Source SUM SQ : DF : MKAN SQ-- - -- - - - - - - ------------------------------ ------------- ------------- 1

:Due to Regression 1.395E+006: 2: 6.973E+005:Residual I 1.238E+0051 10' 12383,017:

Total 1.519E+006: 12: 1.265E+005:-- - -- I ---------------------- -- I

[E

Residual Plot

seq. x66 Min.= 5.00 Mean=48.00 117.00= Max.t*) ------------.. ---.... +-----M+ ------- ------ ---•--.+. . .--

46 104.0047 47.0048 62.00 :49 15.00 *50 6.0051 60.0052 117.0053 21. O *54 5.0055 26.00 *56 5.00 057 108.00

Ref. •429

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhr-10C0 Min.= 1.14 817.00= M4ax.

46 755.24 817.00 047 635.84 735.00 048 328.53 280.35 + *49 307 .80 149.00 +50 157 .47 31 .21 +51 129.10 1.14 +52 110.59 97.50 +*53 110.44 15.03 + *54 108. 86 3.86 + *55 85.09 138 .22 * +56 76.62 237.00 * +57 51.39 12.83 + *

oonum osyr twt-ins hw-cac mhrs100 Fitted Residual

47.00 81.00 311.40 159.00 817.00 755.24 S1.76104.00 79.00 254.50 262.00 735.00 635.84 99.1647.00 81.00 138.10 25.00 280.35 328.53 --48.1862.00 82.00 119.00 197.00 149.00 307.80 -158.8015.00 80.00 61.00 98.79 31.21 157.47 -126.26

6.00 83.00 53.60 21.00 1.14 129.10 -127.9660.00 82.00 44.00 50.00 97.50 110.59 -13.09

117.00 84.00 42.20 79.00 15.03 110.44 -95.4121.00 82.00 45.00 21.00 3.86 108.86 -105.00S.00 75.00 34.30 31.00 138.22 85.09 53.1326-00 79.00 24.60 133.00 237.00 76.62 160.385.00 75.00 20.70 19.00 12.83 51.39 -38.56

700O -- _ _ _ _ _ _

600 -~5001

60

0C

4 00

200

000 - I I- - " -I . .

0 200 400 GOO o00

mhmID-O7 cb.cOA-74

Ref. #30

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhrs100

RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROEVARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

I kit-wt 0,974341469 ( 0.09R12) T= 10.13663 0.0c


VARIANCE (MSE) 12058.024065STANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) 109.809035

P-SQUARED 0.722384ADJUSTED P-SQUARED 0.714219

F-STATISTIC 1 34) 1 202.751177 (p=0.0000)SUM OF PtSIDUALS 125.588241

DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC r 1.441099

Source I SUM SQ I DF MEAN SQ,Deto Regression I 1.649E+006 1 I1 1.649E+006 1

D Residual 4.100E+005, 341 12058.0241Total 2.059E+006 35 58826.337

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Min.=-288.S6 Mean=3.59 412.48= Max.(*• --- - - -- -- -- -- -- M O ---- ----- ----- ----- ------+. . . .. . .+ . .. . .+---1 186.83 12 -112.723 -288.664 -189.02 *5 -143.056 32.80 *7 -16.678 -43.83 *9 3,58 •

10 -13.2711 412.4812 -14.5913 -14.7614 -14.4015 -2.0116 128.20 *17 3.0118 --4.4319 -2.53 *.20 0.40 *21 -0.55 *22 -1.26 *.23 2.09 *24 1.16 *25 -0.88 *26 1.79 *27 0.22 *28 0.24 *29 0.40 *30 3.73 *

32 7.69 *33 0.28 *34 21.31 .*35 177.89

A-75

Ref. #30

Standard Plot

Fitted mhrs_100 Min.= 0.24 1160.97= Max.

1 974.34 1160.9 *+2 341.02 228.30 + *3 321.53 32.87 + * 14 194.87 5.85 + *5 146.15 3.10 +6 48.72 81.52 * +7 48.72 32.05 4*

1 41 4+*11 19.49 431.97 * + A12 19.49 4.90 4*13 19.49 4.73 t*14 18.51 4.11 4*15 14.62 12.61 @16 11.69 139.89 *17 10.72 13.73 *+18 10.3 5.90 q@19 9.74 7.21 @20 9.74 10.14 @

1 3.90 3.35 @3.90 2.64 @

23 2.92 5.01 @24 2.92 4.08 @25 2.44 1.56 @26 1.95 3.74 @ I27 1.46 1.68 @28 1.46 1.70 @29 0.97 1.37 @30 0.97 4.70 @31 0.97 5.29 I@32 0.73 8.42 I33 0.58 0.86 1@34 0.49 21.80 *+35 0.24 178.13 *

310.7 8

o2 .,-/06-

Et 0.5

0.4

0.3

02 a

0.1-

0~I"II

0 0-2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1(Thobusanids)

dt-wi0 euc fittc

Ref. *30

osnum osyr kit_wt mhre_100 Fitted Residual

23.00 79.00 1000.00 1160.97 974.34 ý86.6349.00 82.00 350.00 228.30 341.02 -112.7219.00 81.00 330.00 32.87 321 S3 -288.66

104.00 79.00 200.00 5.85 19487 -189.02104.00 79.00 150.00 3.10 146.15 -143.0522.00 79.00 50.00 81.52 48.72 32.8023.00 79.00 50.00 32.05 48.72 -16.6727.00 70.00 50.00 4.89 48.72 -43.8322.00 78.00 27.00 29.89 26.31 3.58

104.00 83.00 23.00 9.14 22.41 -13.2731.00 82.00 20.00 431.97 19.49 412.48

8.00 78.00 20.00 4.90 19.49 -14.59-53.00 72.00 20.00 4 73 19.49 -14.76

.00 2.0 9.00 .p 18~ -'~530018:00 78.00 11.00 13.73 10.72 3.01

114.00 83.00 10.60 5.90 10.33 -4.43104.00 79.00 10.00 7.21 9.74 -2.53

30.00 79.00 10.00 10.14 9.74 0.40102.00 79.00 4.00 3.35 3.90 -0.55101.00 83.00 4.00 2.64 3.90 -1.2610.00 77.00 3.00 5.01 2.92 2.0990.00 82.00 3.00 4.08 2.92 1.168.00 78.00 2.50 1.56 2.44 -0.88

130.00 82.00 2.00 3.74 1.95 i.7918.00 80.00 1.50 1.68 1.46 0.2289.00 82.00 1.50 1,70 1.46 0.24

104.00 79.00 1.00 1.37 0.97 0.4018.00 80.00 1,00 4.70 0.97 3.738.00 78.00 1.00 5.29 0.97 4.321.00 77.00 0.75 8.42 0.73 7.698,00 78.00 0.60 0.86 0.58 0.287.00 72.00 0.50 21.80 0.49 21.3122.00 78.00 0.25 178.13 0.24 177.89

Ref. t3l

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhrs-lO0FIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PRO


1 kit_wt 1,024959961 ( 0.15299) T= 6.69960 0,0

SAMPLE SIZE( I to 13ý = 13 (DF=12)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUAL= 347744.486885


R-SQUARED = 0.730284ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = 0.707808F-STATISTC( S 121 = 44,884593 (P=0.0000)SUMF RtSIDUAL• 451.301353

DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC 1.933468Source SUM SQ DF_' MEAN SQ

I .. .I _ I - - - - - -iDue to 1Re.6eion - 1.648E+006!" 1 1.648E+0061I ReessiulI 3.477E+D05 '21 289787071I Total I 1.996E+0061 1.536E+005 1

II I

Residual Plot

seq. x60 Min.:-305.S7 Mean:34.72 411.47z Max.-- - -- - -- - ----* .. .+. . . .÷. . 0-M -+- ....-- .....- +- . ..---....- -....--1 136.0i *2 -130.44 *3 -305.37 1* 14 -19.20 I5 30.27 *6 2.227 411.47 *8 -2.76 *9 127.59 *

10 2.4611 -0.11 *12 21.29 *13 177.87 *

A-78

Ref. #31

Standard Plot

seq. FITTED mhrs_100 Min.z 0.26 1160.97= Max.1 1024(.9o 1160.9ý - .. +.. .. +.. .. * .. +.. .. +.. +.. ++-

2 358.74 228.30 + *3 338.24 32.87 *4 51.25 32,05 ÷*5 51.25 81.52 * +6 27.67 29.89 @7 20.50 431.97 *8 15.37 12.61 @

11 10.25 10.14 @12 0.51 21.80 *+13 0.26 178.13 +*

osnum osyr kitgt mhrs_100 FITTED RESIDUAL

23.00 79.00 1000.00 1160.97 1024.96 136.0149,00 82.00 350.00 228.30 358.74 -130.4419.00 81.00 330.00 32.87 338.24 -305.3723.00 79.00 50.00 32.05 51.25 -19.2022.00 79.00 50.00 81.52 51.25 30.27"?2.00 78.00 27.00 29.89 27.67 2.22

5.0 82.00 20.00 431.97 20.50 411.4768.00 79.00 15.00 12.61 15.37 -2.7653.00 72.00 12.00 139.89 12.30 127.598.00 78.00 11.00 13.73 11.27 2.46

30.00 79.00 10.00 10.14 10.25 -0.117.00 72.00 0.50 21.80 0.51 21.2922.00 78.00 0.25 178.13 0.26 177.87

1.2 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

1.1

0.8

0g 0.7-I*V

0.6

tE. 0.5

0.4

0.~3

0.2

0.10,1 3

0 T - 1 s

0 0.2 0.4 C.6 0.3Crhtwommade)

D acta

ecj - -l7.Q

Ref. 032

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhre_100


I wir chge 32.106898782 ( 16.78622) T= 1.91269 0.062 kit_wt 0.826235911 ( 0.12382) T 6.67270 0.OC

SAMPLE SIZEh I to 32) 32 (DF=30)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 365405.343109

VARIANCE (MSE) 12180. 1781043TANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE) 110.363844

P-SQ UARE 0 757211ADJUSTED P-S UARED 0.741025

F-STATISTIC( 2 52.682293 (p=0O.000)

DURBIN-WATSON 11591P2

Source SUM SQ DF MEAN SQiDue to Regression I 1.649E+0061 2- 8.244E+0051

Iesidual 3.654E+005 1 30 12180.1781Total 2.014E+006 1 321 62942:8161

a a a (ENT

Residual Plot

seq. x59 Min.=-239.79 Mean:-16.12 351.23= Max.

1 206.31 - -----------------M 0. .. +.2 -189-31 *3 -239.79 1*4 -185.05 *5 -159.40 *6 -24 017 -94.44 I8 351.23 *9 -41.37 *

10 -59.57 *11 113.71 •12 -24.5313 -43.90 *14 97.8715 -36.42 *16 -33 16 *17 -29.58 *18 -32.61 •19 -31.65 *20 -27.64 *21 -10.72 *22 -9.86 *23 -11.62 *24 -11.59 *25 -2-86 *26 4066 *27 1.60 *28 0.44 *29 3.87 .*30 0.54 *31 7.8032 0:36 *

Ref. #32

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhr_100 Min.= 0.50 1160.97m Max.

1 954.66 1160.9 +:

2 417.61 228.30 +3 272.66 32.87 *÷-4 188.15 3.10 * I5 165.25 5.85 + *6 105.53 81.52 +1 *7 104.58 10.14 + *8 7.714J*9 +

11 64.42 178 13 * *

12 54.42 29'89 +*13 48.63 4.73 + *14 42.02 139.e9 * +15 41.31 4.89 + *16 40.37 7.21 + *17 34.59 5.01 +*18 34.17 1.56 +*19 33,35 1.70 +*20 32.93 5.29 +*21 32.52 21.80 @22 19.00 9.14 +*23 16.52 4.90 +*24 15,79 4.11 +*25 8.76 5.90 @26 3.30 2.64 L27 2.48 4.08 @28 1.24 1.68 1@29 0.83 4.70 @030 0.83 1.37 1@31 0.62 8.42 @32 0.50 0.86 '@

1.2-

1.1

0.9

0.8

c

'ý 0.610

E 0.4- 73

0-3 -

02

0.1

0 02 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2(Th oaonds)

mhrx 100 (octual)

Ref. #32

osnum osyr wir-chge kitwt mhrs_100 Fitted Residual

23.00 79.00 4.00 1000.00 1160.97 954.66 206.3149.0b 82.00 4.00 350.00 "228.30 417.61 -189.3!19.00 81.00 0.00 30.00 32.87 272 66 -239.79

104.00 79.00 2.00 150.00 .10 188.15 -185,05104.00 79.00 0.00 200.00 5.85 165.25 -159.4022.00 79.00 2.00 50.00 81.52 105.53 -24.0130.00 79.00 3.00 10.00 10.14 104.58 -94.44

6912.00 3.9.00 2.00 20.00 12.00 80.74 351.2314400.00 35.00 1.00 50.00 30.00 73.42 -41.37

3276.00 9.00 2.00 11.00 31 00 73.30 -59. 724192.00 24.00 2.00 0.25 14.00 64.42 113.15184.00 23.00 1.00 27.00 14.00 54.42 -24.536500.00 4.00 1.00 20.00 37.00 48.63 -43.90

53.00 72.00 .00 .. • 139.89 42,g2 97.87

40001.61152.00 5.00 1.00 3.00 25.00 34.59 -29.58

8.00 78.00 1.00 2.50 1.56 34.17 -32,6189.00 82.00 1.00 1.50 1.70 33.35 -31.65

423.50 7.00 1.00 1.00 25.00 32.93 -27.647.00 72.00 1.00 0.50 21.80 32.52 -10.72

104.00 83.00 0.00 23.00 9.14 19.00 -9.868.00 78.00 0.00 20.00 4.90 16.52 -31.62

51.00 82.00 0.00 19.00 4.11 15.70 -11.59114.00 83.00 0.00 10.60 5.90 8.76 -2.86101.00 83.00 0.00 4.00 2.64 3.30 -0.6690.00 82.00 0.00 3.00 4.08 2.48 1.6018.00 80.00 0.00 1.50 1.68 1.24 0.4418.00 80.00 0.00 1.00 4.70 0.83 3.87

104.00 79.00 0.00 1.00 1.37 0.83 0.541.00 77.00 0.00 0.75 8.42 0.62 7.808.00 78.00 0.00 0.60 0.86 0.50 0.36

Ref. ý33

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhrs.100


1 wir chge 40.029906736 ( 28.90657) 1.38480 0.192 klit-wt 0.841254081 ( 0.20292) T= 4.14579 0.0C

SAMPLE SIZES I to 121 = 12 (DF=10)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS = 291782.352668

VARIANCE (MSE) = 29178.235267

ADJUSTED A7F-STATISTI 2 23.245076 (p=o.0002)

SUM OF RESIDUALS -124.791386DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC 1.876184

Source SUM SQ DF MEAN SQiDue to Regression 1.648E+006 1 21 8.241E+005 1

Residual 2.918E+005 1 101 29178.2351Total I 1.940E+006 1 121 1.617E+005 1

.... I ... I

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Min.=-244.74 Mean=-10,40 335.09= Max.-- - - - - - - -- - MO -----.--...------ ... --... --.. --...- --- - - -1 159.6 - +*2 -226.263 -244.74 *

-118.36 *5 -40.606 335.09 *7 -75.58 *8 -50.04 *9 97.86

10 -32.65 *11 89.77.*12 -18.65*

Ref. t33

Standard Plot

Beq. Fitted mhrs_.100 Min.= 10.14 1160.97= Max.

1 1001o.34 160o9( * +42 454.56 228.30 + *3 277.61 32.87 +4 128.50 10.14 *5 122.12 81.52 *6 96.88 431.97 +7 89.31 13.73 ,+ *+ +

10 62 29-99 I +* +

11 50.12 139.89 * +12 40.45 21.80 @

osnum osyr wirchge kit.wt mhrs_100 Fitted Residual

23.00 79.00 4.00 1000.00 1160.97 1001.37 159.6049.00 82.00 4.00 350.00 228.30 454.56 -226.26.9.00 81.00 0.00 330.00 32.87 277.61 -244.7430.00 79.00 3.00 10.00 10.14 128.50 -118.3622 00 79.00 2.00 50.00 81.52 122.12 -40.6031.00 82.00 2.00 20.00 431.97 96.88 335.09

8 .00 78.00 2.00 11.00 3 73 89.31 -75.5823.00 79.00 1.00 0.00 2:05 82.09 -50.0422.00 78.00 2.00 0.25 178.13 80.27 97.862.00 78.00 1.00 27.00 29.89 62.74 -32.853.00 72.00 1.00 12.00 139.89 50.12 89.777.00 72.00 1.00 0.50 21.80 40.45 -18.65

0.9-

0.8-

.. 0.7 -

0.6-

lt 0.5

E 0.4

0.3- 3

C.2

0.1 -D

0 L -i i a-

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2(Th&omads)

m _hrv 10 (ectual)

A-84

Ref. t34

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhre_100RIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROE


1 hwcac 2.738279536 ( 0.42015) Tr 6.51743 0.0C

SAMPLE SIZE( 35 to 48) 14 (DF=13)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 337700.873452

VARIANCE (MSE) 25976.990266STANDARD ERkOR (ROOT MSE) 161.173789


F-STATISTIC( 1, 13)= 42.476879 (p=0,0188)SUM OF RtSIDUALS -92.523594

DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC 1.693556Source £ SUM SQ ' DF MEAN SQ

; I Z+ 06,Due to Reg rssion 1.441E+0061 1 1.441E0Pestdual 3.377E+0C51 1. 25976.9901

I Total I 1.779E+006 141 1.271E+005 1

* " I II

( [EN]

Residual Plot

seq. Residual Min.=-239.30 Mean=-6.61 381.61= Max.

35 17.5. -+----+- ----- -- --36 381.61 II37 -127.19 * *38 -108.51*I39 -239.30 *40 -201. 941 -29. 842 53.33 * I43 211.89 * I44 -53 64 • l45 -56.36 * *46 -39.20•47 99.16 , I46 -1.31 *

Ref. 034

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhre_ 00 Min.= 1..4 817.00= Max.35 717.4ý 735.00 I *+

36 435.39 817.00 * +;37 364.19 237.00 1+038 336.81 228. 30 + *39 270.51 31.21 +40 216`2 15.03 4 *41 98.58 69,30 . *

I * +, +

44 57.50 3.86 1+ *45 57.50 1.14 + *46 52.03 12.83 + *47 46.55 145.71 , +48 3.01 1.70 ,@

osnuI Osyr hwcac mhr-_100 Fitted Residual

104.00 72.00 262.00 735 00 717.43 17.5747.00 81.00 159.00 817.00 435.39 381.6126.00 79.00 133.00 237.00 364.19 -127.1949.30 82.00 123.00 228.30 336.61 -108.5115.00 80.00 98.79 31.21 270.51 -239.30

117.00 64.00 79.00 15.03 216.32 -201.29108.00 82.00 36.00 69.30 98.58 -29.285.00 75.00 31.00 138.22 84.89 53.33

47.00 81.00 25.00 280.35 66.46 211.8921.00 82.00 21.00 3.86 57.50 -53.646.00 83.00 21.00 1.14 57.50 -56.365.00 75.00 19.00 12.83 52.03 -39.20

68.00 79.00 17.00 145.71 46.55 99.1669.00 82.00 1.10 1.70 3.01 -1.31

900 I

w o

O sac'

3 00-

7-

0 40 so 120 160 200 240 280

th-corz0 srtuo' - fithad

Ret. t35

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhrs100

FIGHT-HAND ESTIhATED STANDARD TSTATISTIC PROVAPIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

1 hwcac 1.927798304 ( 0.78771= 2.44735 0.02 unin+rem 8.084870961 ( 6.54283) T= 1.23568 0.2

SAMPLE SIZES 35 to 46) = 12 (DF=10)SUM OF SQUARED RESIDUALS 283691.122919

VARIANCE (MSE) = 28369.112292STANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSF = 165.431328


F-STATiSTICk 2, 10) =9.940654 (P=0.0003)SUM OF RESIDUALS -505.77'7C26

DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC = 1.432334Source SUM SQ DF_ IMEAN SQ

------------------------- ----------------- 5 0~Due toRe resion 1.415E+ 06 21 7.075E+005 1

to Residual1 2.837E+0051 I0 1 28369.1121Total I 1.699E+0061 121 1.4'6E+0051

( EN

Residual Plot

seq. x58 Min.=-234.28 Mean=-42.15 300.27= Max.- - -- -- ---+ . . + .. .+ . .. -M--+- -- - - - - ----- ... --..--...-.. . -..---35 100• 5ý36 300.2737 -154-35 I38 -92.1639 -234.28 *40 -207.75 *41 -67.07 *42 151 3143 -104.02 I44 -8848 *45 -77,05 *46 -32.7b *

R~f. t35

Standard Plot

eeq. Fitted mhrs-_00 Hin,= 1.14 817.00= Max.

35 634.44 735.00 + I3C 516.73 817.00 * ÷!37 382.65 228.30 1 +38 329.16 237.001 + ,39 249.31 15.03 4 *40 238.96 31.21 + *41 205.29 138.22 + *42 129.04 280 35 * +43 105. Z, .114+ *44 101 1 1 3 +45 80.91 3.86 + *46 34.46 1.70 + *

osnum osyr hw.cac unin+rem mhre_100 Fitted Residual

104.00 79.00 262.00 16.00 735.00 634.44 100.5647.00 81.00 159.00 26.00 "17.00 516.73 300.2749.00 82.00 123.00 18.00 228.30 382. 65 -154.3526.00 79.00 133.00 9.00 237.00 29. 16 -92.16

117.00 84.00 79.00 12.00 15.03 249.31 -234.2815.00 80.00 98.79 6.00 31.21 238.96 -207.755.00 75.00 31.00 18.00 38.o2 205.29 -g7.07

47.00 81.00 25.00 10.00 280 35 129.04 1 1.316.00 83.00 21.00 8.00 1.14 105.16 -104.025.00 76.00 19.00 8.00 12.63 101.31 -88.48

21.00 82.00 21.00 5.00 3.86 80.91 -77.0589.00 82.00 1.10 4.00 1.70 34.46 -32.76

900'

700

00? a

SI ,40 I0

100

0 200 400 600 80

A-88,100 (actual)

Pef. #36

OLS -- DEPENDENT VARIABLE: mhrs.100

EIGHT-HAND ESTIMATED STANDARD T.STATISTIC PRO]VARIABLE COEFFICIENT ERROR

1 td__reý 1,945873730 ( 0.67939) T= 2.66416 0-0:2 ka -ut 1,387907233 ( 0.69328) T= 2.00194 0.0,

SAUPLE SIZE• 1 to 11) = 11 (DF:9)SUM OF SQUARED RFSIDUALS = 43897.129303

VARIANCE (MSE) = 4877.458811STANDARD ERROR (ROOT MSE= 69.838806

R-SQUARED 0.923080ADJUSTED R-SQUARED = 0.905986

F-STATISTICý, 2,,,,,,9 83.945371 (pO0.0000)

Source ' SUM SQ DF MEAN SQ-- --. --- ------

iDue to Regression I 8.628E+0051 2- 4"314E+005 11 fesidual 1 43897.129 4877.4591

Total I 9.067E+0051 11 82424.9491I 1 - - - - -- I - - -([EN:

Residual Plot

seq. x59 Min.:-76.32 Mean=-3.27 164.80= Max.S - ----- ----- ----... MO---* ....--....-- ....--....-- ....-- ....--1 15.N 12 -76.32 1*3 38.35 *4 -68.355 19.34 *6 164.80 *7 -26.66 *8 -39 32 *9 -38 99 *

10 -17.96 *11 -6.70

Ref. #

Standard Plot

seq. Fitted mhrs_100 Min.= 4.08 817.00= Max.( 4*) 81 (+).0 +. . . .*. . . .*. . . .*. . . .+. . . ..1 801.14 817.002 251.78 16.00 + *3 242.00 280.35 * +4 165.85 97.50 + *-5 118.88 138.22 *+6 72.20 237.00 *7 57.87 31.21 1 +*

48.46 9.14 +

10 3. *11 10.78 4.08 ,@

osnum osyr td__prep kit.wt mhrs100 Fitted Residual

47.00 81.00 233.40 250.00 817.00 801.14 15.8696.00 23.00 75.90 75.00 16.00 251.78 -76.3247.00 81.00 110.10 20.00 280.35 242.00 38.3560.00 82.00 46.00 55.00 97.50 165.85 -68.355.00 75.00 45.40 22.00 138.22 118.88 19.34

26.00 79.00 10.00 38.00 237.00 72.20 164.8015.00 80.00 27.60 3.00 31.21 57.87 -26.66

104.00 83.00 8.50 23.00 9.14 48.46 -39.3251.00 82.00 8.60 19.00 4.11 43.10 -38.99

114.00 83.00 4.70 10.60 5.90 23.86 -17,9690.00 82.00 3.40 3.00 4.08 10.78 -6.70

CO0

700

600

z

400 -

300

1003

Io °0 -!3

0 200 40 60 0

mhrs_100O (actual)

APPENDIX B

NCA AIRCRAFT/AVIONICS MODIFICATION DATA BASE

KEY TO APPENDIX B

NCA AIRCRAFT/AVIONICS MODIFICATION DATA BASE

The data elements included in the data base are defined as

follows. (The definitions are listed in order of appearance in

the data base. The OSIP and TD numbers appear at the left margin

of each page, for easy reference.)

OSIP# - Operational Safety Improvement Program Number, as shownin the Congressional Budget Submission backup data.

TD# - Technical Directive number(s) to which the other informa-tion in the data base pertains.

Basic Mission - Basic mission of the aircraft, as indicated bythe third symbol of the aircraft designation.

Modified Mission - Modified mission of the aircraft, as indicatedby the second symbol of the aircraft designation.

Mod Cate!4ory - Aircraft category under which the related OSIPappeared in the Congressional Budget Submission backup data.

B - Number of CCB from which data was derived, if applicable.

ECP# - Related ECP, obtained from the CCB.

TD Title - Title of the Technical Directive.

Description - Description of th'e change.

Installer:

NARF - Naval Air Rework FacilityCTA - Component Turn-aroundSDLM - Standard Depot Level MaintenanceDI - Drive-inFMT - Field Maintenance TeamN/S - not specified

ContractorCTA - Component Turn-aroundSDLM - Standard Depot Level MaintenanceDI - Drive-inFMT - Field Maintenance TeamN/S - not specified

O&I - Organizational and Intermediate level

A-1

Also in Production - Change affects aircraft iLn production.

Aircraft Type:

F/A - Fighter/AttackAEW - Airborne Early WarningASW - Anti-Submarine WarfareHELO - HelicopterCARGO - Cargo

Installation Tvype:

NAV - Navigational EquipmentID - Identification EquipmentECM - Electronic Counter-MeasuresESM - Electronic Support MeasuresRADAR - RadarE-O - Electro-OpticalMIS3ILE - MissileAPR1 - ArmamentSURV - SurvivalF/C - Fire ControlMISC - Miscellaneous

Wing Station or Pod Mount - Change is on wing station or pod.

Aircraft - Specific aircraft models affected.

OSIP Srce. (FYL - FY Congressional Budget Submission where OSIPcosts obtained.

Non-Recurring - Total non-recurring cost, in FY84 $K.

Enq Dev/Design/Test - Engineering development, design and testnon-recurring costs, in FY84 $K.

Tooling - Tooling non-recurring costs, in FY84 $K.

NRE - Non-recurring engineering costs, in FY84 SK.

Tech. Dir. Prep. - Technical Directive preparation non-recurringcosts, in FY84 $K.

Tech. Dir. P&P - Technical Directive printing and distributionnon-recurring costs, in FY84 $K.

Drawings - Drawings non-recurring costs, in FY84 $K.

Test - Test non-recurring costs, in FY84 $K.

Data/Pubs - Data and publications costs, in FY84 $K.

Publications - Publications non-recurring costs, in FY84 $K.

Pubs Printing - Publications printing and distribution non-recurring costs, in FY84 $K.

ILS - Integrated Logistics Support non-recurring costs, in FY84SK.

Kit-CAC or Ave. - Modification kit cumulative average cost atunit 100 (or average, if calculated learning curve unacceptable),in FY84 $K.

Jits Total - Total cost of modification kits, in FY84 $K.

H/W Total - Total cost of hardware installed, in FY84 $K.

Hi/W Incl. in Kits ? (Y/N) - Whetber the hardware is included inthe installation kit (if this occurred, the kit cost wasnegligible compared to the hardware, and was included under thehardware cost element).

Rep't Install Mhrs - Average installation manhours to date (fromTDSA).

Rep't Install Mhrs @ 100 - Estimated manhours to install changenumber 100 (derived from TDSA data).

Est'd Install Mhrs - Estimated manhours to perform installation(from TD).

%Struct - Percent of estimated manhours to install performed bystructural labor.

%Mech - Percent of estimated manhours to install performed bymechanical labor.

%Electr - Percent of estimated manhours to install performed byelectrician labor.

Trainer Install Mhrs @ 100 - Estimated manhours to install changenumber 100 (derived from TDSA data).

-Spares Install Mhrs @ 100 - Estimated manhours to install changenumber 100 (derived from TDSA data).

Install CAC or Ave. - Cumulative average cost at unit 100 (oraverage if calculated learning curve was unacceptable) ofinstallation, in FY84 $K.

Refurbish Update - Cost of refurbishment or update required bychange; in FY84 $K.

PSE - Peculiar Support Equipment, in FY84 $K.

PSE Engr. - Peculiar Support Equipment engineering, in FY84 $Y.

Oper. Flt. Trainer Kit Ave. - Operational Flight Trainer Kitaverage cost, in FY84 SK.

NAMT Trainer Kit Ave - Naval air maintenance trainer kit averagecost, in FY84 $K.

Trainer Ena. - Trainer engineering cost, in FY84 SK.

Trainer Mod Kits - Trainer modification total kit cost, in FY84SK.

Trainer H/W - Trainer hardware cost, in FY84 $K.

Spares - Spares cost, in FY84 $K.

Installation - Total installation cost, in FY84 SK.

Unit Wt. - Unit weight of aircraft.

Emptv Wt. - Empty weight of aircraft.

Avionics Equip. Wt. - Weight of avionics equipment installed inaircraft.

Avionics Install Wt. - Weight of avionics installation equipmentin aircraft.

Electrical Grp. Wt. - Weight of electrical equipment in aircraft.

Lau/Rack/Pylon Wt. - Weight of launchers, racks, and pylons inaircraft.

Fuselage Volume - Volume (cubic feet) of aircraft fuselage.

No,. Airframe TDs - No. airframe TDs related to change.

No. Avionics T~s - No. avionics TDs related to change.

No. Armament TDs - No. armament TDs related to change.

No. Supt. Eq. TDs - No. support equipment TDs related to change.

No. Other TDs - No. other TDs related to change.

No. Basic A Kits - No. separate basic kits required.

No. Spares B Kits - No. separate spares kits required.

No. Trainer E/K Kits - No. separate trainer kits required.

No. Other Kits - No. other separate kits required.

No. Boxes Installed - No. separate "black-box" systems installed.

No. Boxes Remcved- No. separate "black-box" systems removed.

No. Boxes Mod'ed - No. separate "black-box" systems modified.

No. Units Installed - No. components installed.

No. Units Removed - No. components removed.

No. Units Modified - No. components modified.

Wt. Total Installed - Total weight installed.

Wt. Units Installed - Weight of components installed.

Wt. Units Removed - Weight of components removed.

Wt. Hardware Install. - Weight of miscellaneous hardware(brackets, shelves, etc.) installed.

Wt. Hardware Removed - Weight of miscellaneous hardware (brack-ets, shelves, etc.) removed.

Wt. Cables Installed - Weight of cabling installed.

Wt. Cables Removed - Weight of cabling removed.

Total Wt. Change - Net weight change to aircraft as result ofmodification (may be positive or negative).

:Wiring Change - Complexity of wiring change resulting frommodification (see Appendix C for details): 0 = none, I = small,2 = medium, 3 = large, 4 = major rewire of aircraft.

Interf. - Y if CCB noted that the change involved an interfacerequirement (another change is required in order to implement thecurrent change).

FFF? - Y if OSIP or CCB noted that is a form-fit-function change.

Basic Kit Wt. - Shipping weight of the basic kit (from TD), inpounds.

Basic Kit Dim's - Shipping dimensions of the basic kit (in cubicinches).

No. Documents Affected - Document (drawings, etc.) affected bythe change (from the TD).

Trainer Kit Wt. - Shipping weight of trainer kit, in pounds.

Trainer Kit Dim's - Shipping dimensions of trainer kit, in cubicinches.

Est'd Install Mhrs - Estimated manhours to install trainer kit.

Spares Kit Wt. - Shipping weight of spares kit, in pounds (fromTD).

Spares Kit Dim's - Shipping aimensions of spares kit, in cubicinches !from TD).

Est'd Install Mhrs - Estimated manhours to install spares kit.

GFE Kit Wt. - Shipping weight of GFE kit (includes "black-box"equipment), in pounds.

GFE Kit Dim's - Shipping dimensions of GFE kit (includes "black-box" equipment), in cubic inches.

Rep't Install Mhrs - Reported manhours to install GFE kit.

Est'd Install Mhrs - Estimated manhours to install GFE kit.

EQ Type - Equipment type (derived from "AN/-" designation.

EQ Purpose - Equipment purpose (derived from "AN/-" designation.

Footnotes - Footnote numbers relevant to change.

CCB Description Paragrap•ht - Description of specific CCB action,if appropriate.

The data based used to develop the CERs is presented in

pages B-8 through B-37. Each set of opposing pages (e.g. B-8 and

B-9) shows several of the variables for the 87 data points in the

data base. Each progressive set of pages shows different

variables contained in the data base "matrix". The OSIP number

and TD number always appear at the left-hand margin on each page.

The order in which the variables appear, and the variable

definitions, were provided on pages B-1 through B-6. Pages B-38

through B-44 provide the footnotes to the data base, and pages B-

45 through B-49 provide the descriptions of the CC13 actions.

B-7

-C-

0L U

04 I 4l

CD0 m, m

Cb 0 tý

Ow- 0 a 0 CDI-~~~~~ -* r-r . -t -v -

6 L. N w wl

c c- c . 4- - 4

p..4

N e xxA ei d C0:eO I) f) ( f () f4) - 0

x to 0 m I e00mv0400000a00 . N

_wI _ n cL m mm 6 "o -O ML - m0 0 00 mmmmt0N %n v vvmmNrc 4 .I,-N cC4 NN& Nmm. n4

U06 na Ok,)L-6)U ý ýý n6 - r n . ný - n% O% nU)t Ln 6n 00 00 00L 04X Výu.

= < < 0..~... u00000000 ==mm l t.f Cf. t=. = LtL< < <-

-It ItO~ ~ 0 4,~~,,,4~ ,0 0

L-u oX=MMC o m0 -L-... -4 r. V -C00 L0 Ct_ 0 t - -L-ZZC 0 066 4,,,,L,, 0 0 , 610

to N lýal n q NN N44 0C C~ C1-4~ 4 NN c-4-4 c

-a u

oo-WN C .'a -0 0 )tNuC )L

wo 0 -- 0 vM 0 CO tI Q2 to

C4~0 N c N- w ~ N Vd N 1 l- 4 I

04 - N~ 0-0 CO N4 N 04 0 -WM-

C.4

I cc IV IV v~~ q?0 00 0 0 0

k% WOCO IL 0.4-C4<Ocfj0.a r N I týN(00 ~jP 0-40 O[-<c= 0 .

to4 ~ cI N ~ .N ~ N-

0 0

0. 0

9z 0 sO > D0 .

L) 0

J9XX 9X -Z-4 .-4.XA4 . 1 wX 0AA

00 3w00 st

0 - ) J4)404 0IN4 - 4)+ 1 .4 4 1 o otot 4 . 0 4 4 ~-. ra 6

c c mec *)ý4J24ýO0 Q4*00 V Li:4)- 4'' 4 - w4 6)VV0 00 0

C64 C - Wc ZC4M hN cuf t-

> DL. Mvvv0 -6 C I)M" Cn Likt. t CM',Z CD IV4 LiM %n CC~ tO T C i C

c - OOOU 00U00U~U O~

E-16 04 n' nt f nI nL n0 ý% nuý% aý ONý 0ý o0t 1 n46 :

Ln toW w w Tt-t 0

0 -

CL ~ IM0 011 0I 0

.0 41- - , -64*N, 0 .

z ct I L c 0-4 U U 4; D .0v u 0 6 U. X: 04 ' 40= ~ 6 S 6 C 0 0

0. tsv cw . 43'. 4 1- 0 0 w. 1c= a6.) 4. ZC a4 -. 00 l 14 -4

til -4 A-- -6 c *:, 0. 1 0 0 Q-4

%4 0. = S. 6cc 9.-4)C06~ '0=Q 20 Sr 0' I)M 0 0 1 c64.

IdI al- a ~ 6 c 45 -4 c- 0 0 o 0& 6 6 0 Owv cc<.4 W' 9z. T 6 04- CO " c 0 0. 4.) 0 4.3 0 ý 6

I~~ ~ c to~ In44 0 0J= .4 0.

>~ W~ *.i-N- ' C. C0 -b [- 0 M 0 IN '4- LI;I$ C.6 - 4 0IC 6 4) INI u QW > c 0w 6. (b I r.C'

aI : I, :. o ' N . 'C- L010 -6 to =.- $6 W 0 43 4 =4 nNII v -- 0C c -C. 2001 0 be 0 to 0 o .14 En4 c ~ 1 4

014 14 ~ f) . 06 m.4 be 01.. 1w 4 l4 a

W I I ICC.' 4Dl CC ~ M0 1 4 04 C V I 00 2. OM1 C606W 4', 4)=-4 =CL) z m4310 4 c6 0W. m~ = 0 414 .Z

<I -4414 6=E- 11.04 .4-0 = C V.0s j T6 4C' 4.) " 4INI 0.1'0 '34 - 0 -.430k46 o ~ 0 c 43..CA - 1 c U~2C% r-- 00 c

1144 0. .O .iZ - N 0 .4 V V O-e la4 o4 te. no 4~4 c )

i1 0C.6 C 4 6'C i.)C-d%4 1MO= C 910 006 'CVA 0. $40.0 C-M 0 6V z 6'C0 b- 41W 0~C a ~ V a V44c- 1-4 * 0 .' 4D ig V + 0 10- *.) 434. 041 ic 0. a

0 CJ'ICE1 ON%. 46M 4 16u 6 C -4 id0'L-C4-) U 0 1-4c 0 46 3.44. 04 N,c-- -1 10 04b.U67- N = CIL0a146f V *u - 4 0. c Sa14 P%4 w 06 Q4".0~ U 4 C w =

to6. 6 to -C , -C 14'L c C0 L) 04 0 4 a I c6C - .2 0 -4 4.cCr. 0 C cx -- ) 4 4 s >VLI~~ 64 0~I - 040.' to~ -0 3-.Lx,6c am 4 Z'-C

J4 -.4 .0 1 4 o 'C CC 4D a Z 0L ) V Z 4 M 4 ) C e W C -1 0 -M Vc I cCC I 0 c2 U -4 0 0 14% w06 4 W UL.C14E L 'Cb

IZ" z 4c 4 4 0 -CC 062 J~. MCZ ~ 6 0 4 C0)0I CcZC 04CC W-4 C CO C.. L~) OW ', 10. -43I Q 4 8M -4$w C 4.) 0 C Id - I 6 w 115

1.I , 6 0 6 W ) W 2 %2 4 ' 0 h b-4 p ) '4 - 4 0 0 C C O U ) U . c S h . 4 Z 0 0 , 0 wC ) CI b -43C 0 44 6 0 m4L~4N. *-4 0Uv 4.14 6 43 v v 0 c z W c 0 M MI. I46 :K CIL C& 1-. .40 c 0.-eC'1um4vU( 60 O . c c0 4 1C - C 04'.0 z 40 1

0 9> 0 to W 006-41 = 0 r4= 14 w 4- VC6 U we3 '-04-5 600 -'e' C 4c.

Oc c -q . A-04 A'4' a 9). 4 0 06 qý4 - b4 C.-4 Sw 64- 4) 4 001 W 4O

-4 0z 10c c 31:11A' L oC0 ) n _0 0 V .er4Mtn9 e Vf' 0 0901 0 0 Wc-4) , l * 4 0 11.

6 CC4C 4C 0- r Cid 0 -4 0 c400-C m0 9: 66 v64 he -0-4 1404j216--4= 0 X Q -4 0:0v a +c 0 x .301 u 4r' 4) 4 .)4. C .4 u4) C14 14 CN0 4 .04 a0 c 62-001 b ýI ý

o1" 4'C C-04 ZV0 0 v c 0 0 ( u-4 U .CC0 14V 0.4 U v 0 -4 -CI t o 1---400

& U34.W ' 0. Sw C.4 0 936-6-4 o 2WN-4U TV $.OOCw> 6 .) 314 w4 C -1') 40+0M-4J16.- V -W 4V "0C'CC4O) 4- CO -C W3 C -C I-4C 1 C0496-C01.)011-4 4-

C 4J N M 0-4V 4V0 40V t-P V2 0 0 'sZ + -4W V WNL) 0 -40ZU0C 4 0 4-a .~*'-C6M r. S104142 W V C0 C> n 0 = 00 0 V O 04MC7-13C.0 00

W4J14' N04 W0. MCC3 ~ 4 40C'1 *W M r- 4 M 0 Mt- M0 M M M t- M 1 4 1

ll 0L n6 06 t n06 C 06 OlýI)V )W 6 )V nI O6 nL . O041 )mI )0L )k )La. 6 Im CC .C - C- 4c m.4)0110 -40 00 g4IZ Zo mm MM I d 6.-3 94OWC W C1 0X0

C) I I I I N7 N I- - ý n 4Q r44N-4-4----NNNNNI NNNMt ZW4

0 cI-

oc

Cm Ilk0 +)

0 ý0

:b 0 0 14) +)1

v 0 swz -4-

0 4) t 0. 1, c c$-4 V N 0 v 4 SU

11114 0. -4 c 21 0 .

0 4c v0 10 010L "3%--'4, I I% 0- -I a 04 d l . w 9 0. 4

4c c 0. c Id 0g zbe w'to -4 ad 0 to x4c c 4 0 CX L, 4) C. 1 4 00 4- 1-I

W6 P.6 44T N. 1wV.4 ad- + 04 I- 0 a= 04 N74

L, 5.' t- 04 ld s 9 c 2Z . r 4c -mL o , 00O. 4. 0 65. vC.Q)wa a S 0 *

1.1 L 0 CID1C0' 0 .L 0 c 0 c) 0 -4060a -4 C tL k

-CI4)aO -4 4)3&. -. 0 W.0 0*,4 -1-4 0 C 45 ad 004N39 0 06 0 C m0 6 +). 4- t4 V4)v.-c') c 0-C -C -0 '0 0 - cdo . .4 1 0 c ) -huI V3 r6 c 04z31mL 6M C,4 C 0 IjjwA W QU a 6CM C 1 . 4 M 0

00 c t -6* 4 0i. 06 C1.In0=t-C 04) . S ~I)0 cNo s 3 - -4 015 V 4 0 F. A.C Q)- 06 t

I- CIDI m.SO I i C.)W 04) 0 -+ 6 0 0l wO . 4 t 0 4 *D '0 v I -m -4 U - 05.O. V I 'Vccc0 -4 50 z o01 C.. WC a) 00 07. 0 9 S0.

Im1 0-4 c) lo c cco- cz .4.6: -4 .46 -6 W. 4-O X4) -I4 0. ZZ 5.'04IL44.- -C.C 00 c zN.' 0 cc 41 4 - r00 4 c c

aX41 V 4D - c 4 0 cocc Z0'4sw1 -4 4. 0. 1111.0 OIC 16 P- = IOa w 4 ) 4) I 00 6 0 4) -. 4cN4o) -= b-

-I -IZ )4 - 4-CVW0C Mt-40-.6000 05'0d6 I- Q ( id IA .1- 0 cZL 4.) > a-C - 0 2 66.4 25.M 0 CO04-.00 Q4- V 4 0-4 0. 03 0 04)6 442VA ,q-O

ad I ~~I'llill0- r. Ac 4CL ) 0 -Co ll) .06 0 b .0 ID0 )CE 1- IC V4 4 ý

w ~~~I ( cm . 0 toO .4 .4 a Iko U 0 4 '-40 .4 0-44)6o 0t C-4.)vcN4c 1 0.1'-O4 64) - 4q N c c 0 to 4 ZC6 .-dC4)0L)S Vb U 0.- .40 n+MCOr6 0-4 RW4 * -

I P04) - -4CIIIN O. d - .l 0v4 )c d 419 9 oIN 1 1)ý -P-46.h a.). wO0 ~ VC.40

V 4 5 P I o n ar) Z-4z I6%=.4 0.06.0 *fI 6 CM 00 0ZC019L .c I 4 r t-- is6.I-640 0 0 m6.~i %I . 1 .41C6 4 )6 11 w

I. 0K4) *0 - wU P-0..O f 4 . %00. OW.-. - 1145.14m00-C a4)60%4 600I 4M 010.. *-4 U j, 0 i 4)I6'0Z0 - 1 0 014)0-4 c . a >4 o)- c

m L.-4 6 '6 0 .4iC~ z0 r.0 4)606t V5.I- 1a -4 0 6 ,4 00 601. A 010 61 0 4)1 - 0 V 4 0 I ' C

-4 C 7 IM-. -4COMtOZ -4.4 X0~ -4 0 Cm .4 f -x.4 4C O060.0 CO 4 0 ID-4 NdC CO4)6C- 4-)+)O4cm066L)+ coit4)0 OW) C- I -4 -. 4 + wm461) 0

v0 T 0IN 100aq " 1 o a .4 a V40 0., aý 01441 - 053Id.436i c ~6 rs 1r..0 4.00 v 0 %4 v I 4016 -1- q0 . C0V1- W-

0 .C D, -.4 .1 -1 0 NE 0 4 -4 6.6 5.1. a5 664x- u 0Vc = " q%W &V 0-40 &-40 %4 6414 t-I.&q() CZ +.4 X4Cl40 M 1 C 6LCZ40 0 % 4 Cw

In- r.-4 oc+ S 44 -4 OC 114 16 "-C 6 0 L cj4 114 4) W0c-, 1. 4 4 04o CS XS C0)' 6W 0 V06V1-0'1M7. Z C 0 0Q5.N,0 NC 0,C M .416V>, 0 L)0aN26-

X om+I 11 .46ZC -4.46=0O2..4.4 z 4001--4)..4 0.0.0000.4O>6~X=t I). W--Z I 06dE" XC 4))O2O)40 -4W -C0 4)*4)C0 44)..

m. 6 m nw I 0 0 -6.4 m~ w6 06 v4.4 60U 44.4 0.46 w( t

%606 LMk 6N)ý C 06% nUjUJV 0t 0C4 &0 -4 %0 06 M.Z- ý '%n %nU N '0 6n0 Uj0 W kD t 0 0 %n 6nt-N 66 I.06(6 0 0506 I~I.

m 0- I-. 4460 -44~4)-4 I N44)4 *I N460NNNN

o"1 - , I 1M 01 N,66N, 0.Z C1.4 -1N =I.. C0, CID c, 111 CD Ito1000cr 06 W w5 000-10Cz0 0 M I- - m mc m o c c 0

i C

I -IM

I~Ix

I- II -- , on v w-om~ .- IM 0 m-~ N W - ý.-N - t

u If C < 1 w r -14 u- uuC4 K - C-> ~

4CI

IL)z ~ ~ lai n

IMZIM M. ýW 0 I0 o iiIIIIII N . c~ c)ln lM ~ tee

If -- 4n-)C, -4ý 4ýc t cc OC c0 " NNNNNNNNNNNmU

I. m

I-w -4

w 4I u0 r

0 CD

I4 a 001

-i u -4 -' -.4 . --C. V . .I* .

r- c NI4

I. 4

ZI4 4 i

0 v c0I I~m

I I~W

7-~

C %nto M 0cc 4 m w IV0 a tý m m0 4m V , WCD D N D N r-> v r-v vv mv vv 4 - W) mv vLn n mv m l) w I wto 4 ) Ul tzw w" 0T N(D

JP4-4 c'

-C-

000 CC)) 0 MC t- mo oM O

- r.. ~ tsB 0 13

Nq N N N

I u

-P- -4 -4 -0 -4 -

I. z

I Ir

-4 -1

I-I

L)I I -- -- -

ICI

00z c z

I c

61 U' I

10 Lo- 00W 0k'z 0L 0m06 0L 0L n% l t 00000mmU ný

W WMMW5 WWXM-CM M C 6b 6 MD

0.0 u1.a.=u= ==== wD Cuoc<A C

Iz q- -. < -C -co 4-o10

dc~

I N

N nV )ný 4 4- 3mmC MN NCJNN0 INNNnt lý ~I- I ,-

C1 O NN CV N4

C

'CC,

I4 Iw -4

dc - 4 4- - 4ý 4WI-I

I In-

c~~~~ M M -z D. --

0 -I r ~-rL c- M o -w- .4w WN N---- - 0-CI NI -Mt -NM ) P r

9M M t -4 t.-I -- o en e4 cn-a V wtn-wr-ý ) e wI I.uL LC La Cu< 6<w-<< ,o wU-uf 4 v4

ix . d >4cIsc'

I fI o

to~ I- -.C -

0 19

0: 0 A.)

04ie

In

7- .

7. I= to NNNMMV

m I IC.4 CDC I I I6

tn C6

t-

>) L

b-.

II 0

-=4 )0- 0 .

4-V4

0

60~ N "0c 0 =0ct cCDt rC

6l0 0n m v m4 cct 0 D6 zNt

0D 0 0 n n6f., ~ ~ ~ -4 -0 6n U) LOL CL)L nVI n46 m0LOL ni n0

V ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . -p -w wrVWMt MMmt -t-C 4r v

to m .t t-wa cmt

13 1

N9

In 0

'-c

..a

=-

4 C-4

co4

CIO

V)I

'N~ I N

0 '0)

zIL)z

to In LO cct 4-L )L--m0c -NIlI> c,4 1 rmc w mmC4 w' 0, V

4c'N

oz I MW MMMM<<cNwD0cmw <U WM< =MMOMt -

I CNN N M " 4O rOO N O0 0 NN O 0 'J O ON 0 O 00 0 0O N O

I0 ~ ~ ~ ~ c ICN C~4 I~--~~ I~ I II 1

BetAvailable Copy

ZI N m0 mm

= Nw

C40

In N N t-

UIQN

0'

4C'

I"P

IQ~ W4- Coý Co

7. CAW N N

NC'U0W0 0lNN

I N-

C-1 0c 0

CO

40

U

0- NN M M~ m 0O T O-40 n OV0 -qr u0-mC) )C - oc oNt -

C~t NZ W N W4 N4

NN -4 CO1 C14 ) Pft. n044L 044L n 00 it) 4 40X0-) 4N060100 O00k0t 0) o -4o

CZ Cý:n~ C N - o - - 1 oý ý - "

I I I I I C '-I I-4 -M.TumM nW c

(c N- 0 cc t- m N V r- 0~N -~

o 0 hfl N tO 0 en " 6 -N C-4, v

I-I

W 0 m - ( " -

IdI

.,C-I COMM ~---I-- C I . . . .

**- = -in c CO 4~ aNM I1nhf te t- 0nr

ccCD o C0 I -4

N N

ZZ: Z x ZZ

.2 C-azE Z

NN

1-- 0 I

=OW I

I 4c 0 1

.21-10 1

ZOI

v IM N-- cc O- 0~ -p cc .q M-4 NN -4 MN 0 N--4NMM0 COMO

>o leI Coco 0 - 0- m 0 o C-4-4-4 00 , t- 0m u,0

C)-

00

-. N cc~£,q m m t- NI -t t-Lor ý o 0MNM t

Nr- w -u gLN N N NN e L t = ==< t .w m<mm Mm m. M.tww b.= X

t 0 M, m t m N

a-c tro N W0,o O Wo CID n mm c

.Z C I M ~ MC. C CCC M- 04- mo No -ccl CC m tCcom

o -. 4~c ~ vC N 0 .-

CL (ntjl l I m mo m cc m t- m NN

.3 t- N. O N' rl w cc~,Ob.2 CoCt' N ~ N .II m Nc

v, I~ t o qr 0CotN

W Z m

O I Co Co t'- in N N N4 9)~ m 04 N 1->N 04 '

cc I

W-c be~

I) 04 o~ N t in.-40 C(M-~~ m~o No 0?- 00O

P. c 10 0 co N CD Mm 0 E4C- cc ~ ~ LO in r-O 0 t oO 0.

w~ 1 i 4c .4 1 C-t o ri 4

0 co I

oo w D

U-4

Co

04 2!

cz

7- COICoMCoC0o - oý wNNNNNNNNt2 c*- r-t - cc cww0xmc oc c oc oc cmO 0mmm=c

0~~ t I I w I I I I i IN~ -

on w

Wcc o

Itic

U 12 4 nI

=t-.= I

C6 z0.9 C Cr.- iN

ct-2 It I .

CL4~ .- 0 9 1r 4'.

I t-0)) 0 to D-4-4 1 t 4 4-1 - q4I4 14.4 V"J -4

ho-t I0(

.Ctt Z =

~ý 2 Z-

.0 z' 0 c oC O 400000 OW 000N 4N01NOtO D C''000 Cr20O

in) I

0C -C 4 CP-4, C C -C

a 0 t- t 0- 4 0l I . C I(( I2 I) 0 N CI I' I' t- N- 19 t- o- t- -- I I- 0- tn el- t-. N t- t- r- I I2 I C- I I I II- t-'I I I 0CI0.90)00anGwI I CD II 100N1C1C11 1 11 1 CN0)00tM-40) a200) Ir-0

o~w co

V; '

0C 0

T,

7- I

Ut W

I- c cI -O 04

COL) 0 Xzoww

L0 I

AC CD V N 0 O ccO Coc

i OI cc) -) 0

P0 hn t-0wvw& Dmw 0c ný D cr cc

U)~ cc0- I

0100n o 0 0 0 t- f- ~ OC? t- N 00 N NOOt

0 1-i-4-4 .4 4-r yq- 4I rI

00 04

to I

a c 00 0 a

I-N*4

Cf -- C w -----

I-K44

Kz w I

f- - C Nd

1- 7- 44

I- O I

I- Old I

t AC I- VC I

IM- 0' C, D

hec I

'i- 44i

co

1 0.- t 0- 0 M~ V 4 CC In C Mn 000 IN CDM N t- IN W - CCt- t- Mn M1 M V 0 In Mn t- C N W -1 0 M C-I- N M tI-CC Lo)t- C ' CI 0 nC )i CC nC ' C~C Ci -Lim) MtC i - -()) 00 cC CC- - MC ntI "' V 6n) tý V V N W M' M' Vt q& 4' Cl)M N 4f CNI " In IV 4 N CC C' N N "N In ('4 "' Mn M U) Inq 4 4V M) M m) I) C)4N 0 n' N4

v)Iý6 hnnn Lo U)u)InhoIn u)In 4 nýIn 0 0 nnn~~nIn -5u ok n 0In unIn 0400 oU I nUIn) )W) &0In In 4In 0 4 4Z W 8 L) KCL M ) M CO CCC 4C fK KE bL f2 W i4C CK CC K KCC W C CC M C M C IMM CQ CC a-Ct OW 1h K a& b6 Ki Wt gl C = K

RI O 04040404042)0)4 Int I I-t IC C C 0 0 i ) 0 Ot.i I-C-' I II I Imm -- ~c Itti"t t' I II''''tC.C.C.I I I I I' lI* t-- t- t- IO LO "niC').6" ) I0 I M) I V I 10)N0 CO M CID CC CID OC I 1 1 4NC NI I t4-Ni CN

14 IN m0C')cc w

C)

z w

[- -

CID ,t) C)O

-C q Iow14 I

Mi V

co'

I

04 4 I

-Cz7. I1:w coI

f- 7.-Cb

z= - co

Old 4 Go

-z-C ba I ai

(t-- ai

qI-

Goc I* WI

m) I r 0 0wNN-vLN N 0-0 0 v) NOM wC'W40t- % ) mNm0 "

z me t-- -ot-I l:cw1 06 OwwwN(ýýN N WI )QN0NNN n0N00I QNQ00=N1

U) '~C NCC 0r Q

6000i n000L 0II-0W nL 6 )b nuýh o6 ýU

Ci

UI- )UCg .i CL )- Q 3 c- drv )u.mucr.w i I .

C4NNN2NNNmmm

w i -t DM ; C

0~ ~ ~ N VV nL n6

0 N N- N~C~ N -N -IN N N MMZ N6 ý6nN N r- t-r -r -t t -C

bc O4c0NNcN 0MM00 NNNNNMN

U -=~ -4 - - ... C

CL~

ZCC rNN - h rNN I-t--t &

* 4 N N~6n 4

0 M

I MW= 4 4 r-t- !. t- -- 0 -Ce - -- N" w* cc Cc 0C 00 GO IV V M~ M M CO M- v- 0w 0 -

I 0 0 0 0 0 N N N N NNCNMN 4'04

mm

Cy

-~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~ m- 4 -t ~C~. ~ -~ ' 0 0 0 0~ '4 N N9 N t. t') V'_ I� t- N t. t N~ htJ- 0

Cd-

IZ Q - -r -0 -v t 0

IznC-- -Qý zt bmc ) r l T r? VVVot)I -f 0t omwt z0W0 ' -MMf-t- WTW ZWVVNNNMMMMMNMM6Inw-4N

Do,

I-I

-~~ -N V 0- 0n M~ V M M' M0 X, M40 N' C' C0C M0 W ' n- 6n 0)0 CC) M - M- C)0 C, X - 0CC) M - r->4 ' N'N ~ 4N'~

I. << 0. < < < < < < U:,- = = =004 000 000 000

Z ~ ~ st NNNNNMMVV)4 Lc) t-~.00 C 0

I f - r- I - r It I It- r r t - C t Z. I I I I I I I I I I I t I I I

mmf-l _ z t I)' 0 = 0 Cc, I1 I I t I i tN ~ 0 ') ON -C' n ý44mmvw" nN------wm cý cQ

tt I ONNCINNN 00 WZnnCt ~n-CM oMI6 %000 tt CcWt-tf I ot- t-Wrvrt- t- - 61 o)C cO IN

.c *i-C-C 00oco "NNCCnc 0 0WW CM.04

-C.

NI

1 IO CO -N- - C- N COC00 CC CD M cc C 0 0ý 4 Uj)

Xc 1t - N . 0 C 0 ccN 'a ( N N4cc

LO I

>Z Itt t N t w ~ ~ - -'r N4)

o*' ir-oc'ý%--- N- N NNNe N we- r- e- NCC NN N t-LOo) W I

M~ V C -- - - -4 - - Co Lr4 -0 -ý cc to Mt0%)wC )nU) t

U)~~~~~0 ICr400 0 C O ww q tq W0 0 to mCK

In~. vC W0 0~ - wMMM e 4rrc) : t urt4t 0) n

IV ------ = CW4W00004I ( *I4 0 C CD- ~ M Qtoto t W t M fn nru ho o

I2 tM M ~ w N t'C00c W

CCID

M C)h" L w W t-CC C 0))0 W t-nýWV0 i -M0004 -wtf MV000MNN- a;, 4'wwz C-- 0 W-'- N CC NMC C U C'b

IWOWtO VVMVWOVOO - t-CC (DW NV 10M-IMOnOC W-1W W U n000 W' W 4 -

OF-- )wC-C- -CrC4 <dt -.- CWC-.0 -C1- 4-

Z~~i4~'W4W W.~~"Nttt i-IC'rMNN N4

q. -4

crf

he- II

00 Er0 0 0

DCC I

Zcfli ~00 0-

zc

-CI

i-,- I

F- I-

C I

CC Q

ozo

AC

Lo cc

U)

ZCI- I0

dCc Q IC=0 I

im I

0 ))w% 0NwmmNt-Nw wr Tm0mv00m N0 0 r- 0MM CD 6A N IO ~ -LM n -- O

IC t- f-. I -- f-t--It-r -!

ODE I 0

* 'C~~~ 000~ 0 C 0 0O t00 4 0004Como oo

20WO

0 2 040 0 00 0M Nbe

r) 0 0 040 0 0 00000 00040 0 0o0k600

o co I-

Ocflq cc 0 0 OC 4' 0 0-0000 Coco 0 WO00

I-N

0o 10 nO 014 00 0 0-IN00m "0-40 0 Cil

izc

-C-

I -. fl ')-4 ('J4.- 0 . ~ 4* r .0.-I C~)to

-f'-

I> o~ .4 .4.

GL W

3-30' oc om-- & Cov 0 QD i-' '-

Ic mme onc 00t ONOONOC.-IO.- 00 000. 004'mwo Omt. co o C N Nt N

CI. -> 0 t- ~ C') - c 4 ;

X 7-' E t- '-4

0 i 00 r O 0t04tt-0.UZ CCM 0 O0UMC M 0 0 C0 060ct-0000 CON Ln -) 00

mLC 0- CN 6- Nt- ..ý m 0 ) -W m CBm> M' -o 0o Nw -o '.- V

I ~ 00C- Q"it()M.fl tO 0. 04 ommo m T- W - - 0rN t

qr 4 r 04 U- . . n .c 0 v - t-

g -c o m 04) M-f 0 NI No 044 -4VnI t- -.c oOtr

-c -. W0 o 00 0 00 0 -4 0 C4 0 onN 0) 0' U) - C0 04N ' C 0!,-

CCu I

W 14-

0 0

ZO

I IC 0 toOU)OCOc fifltOOOOOC)U)N4flOONOOOO40 N -C4 cc-400I

4cc

ILl~ C') w. >

x0

to4

Cc

b- I , -4 0 -C0.) nI4i L0O '-4 000 0 -i ý4040 LOi NO.4r40U- n 0O 4O.LnninO)0 4O 4 00 0- 6~0 0CO M

-4 0

-w W_4d C. -4lK 44

7- 0)-CM Wt-t wmm )

C-C,

* ICC r-CflCOCCC 0e-CN -C -r 0 0 coo

C U

WO O~ OO n O O 060MMLnllflm -C t- o 0cim~ W I I -.

- 4>' I4m - 00 ccNf- 3t0 m 04 m

4x LC:

MC a

Qw*m ~ -Io WO40fl O C Oco.' m 0 0 IDO

IN em N %V-4

0.3c M-' c n Re

'tr7-

.aC~ Z C14 ' I''V me-C

0-4 C D *flp 0- Wt- -O co'107 CC N N

e- c ' ' 0 4C r-

-- -I -4 4 - - -

-mw

owt IW >

m-x

cc wCf0 0 0 ~ O O 0 ~ lSr N (.0 0qn

t-M C 0CON -W -'N O C0VN W tW C ~) M M M~

'I-Ian 4 nI D6 ~ OO n06j 0t h k n oi ~ nm0OnL

cooC 0 -c C m ((-4t-t- m0m oc

.1 at m 0

I- C'

14 x I I

-4 Ir 4 - 1 tM J

L-IL

WMnC WCM I Ni ~ w q O i C) N'i-lti N4 m.-m(rGiowNe-oR N( c V O N-M N - r".C-C N 4'i 0 = - -D MN V 0 CD nin..DNCCr-'

t) iin -NW OC Con O)-4tinr-CN.-C N *e- Vof 0 Wn 00-woor

In i-- z N UinN N n I-n Nn LO "Nt ifl4 0' CD N 0N cin t- co M N 4 N t- U)r 6n4

Ci in Df

4C Cd 39 1nN

C.. I

=Il

zI'

- O~W..3 i

O-r IC0- = Ur)

ZQN I4m0m =O N 0

.. gI t-incot t Cin t0n n W0 0 C t - -D Ot in -liO' " .C'4 0 0

-C r 10 1 - 0- C *-i- C Cm y v . C .4 '- 4 0) 1-IfrI- Z I inl N W N 04 in 00 c- I 41' V4 N1 t- WC: -C I I "4 14 I 1 q qe N

L)i

0

IL

m c

C l . n0U)m0NwmmNt-Nv -t nmt , t

O1 40 kn 10 . 0 i n Wit n W) in in ON 6n %n C') hN k.- in 6n 4'- 0 1' in 0o ) in VCin ink )in. N NC Of C- U - I- Nj)h 0 1M cXCt I& rcirOiO V) iz W < 4 O. inWtm 4 OMiMtM wnON ft- .06 W wW h-Ctn

0. 0 C4-CU- C- -C L) mW=N= = = Cw -4 U -V -C -CN-C -C -cc4in iq c L) I

t- Ci M M ý CICIIC IIIQ COO CC OO WO OC CW CC CV OO W0 00 CO CO COWOOLM(

10 40 cc 0

C14~ 0 (D cc 40

cc 0 10 -

mw q 6ý M N CIAw

L16

V to 0c0w 0N C* c *0 0N N 0 N 4 o ( 0 I D t

th - -,I N l) Q9 N N IV0f 0-Cw - o.

I- bc f f D O A I

0-41-N-. .N N- 41 MI' MN 04 -N41ZCtN 'rN.l~ N - W)N

zCz:

N 10 C N N0 0 N N N O 1 N 0 00ý ý40 00 0NOW-30-1 0~-'0 410 ~ 0 O 0 ~ 10 N ~ 1

M u ~ ~ N00 t-W 1 0~t- N 0"N"Mr- - 0 1 4'0 '

c No-f MM I 4 1-

00

C4

uN W

U' 0

> ~ ~ ~ 1C W4. VW0t *0 V MV V- ntO ~4MV nt 0n W N ZNý

I- 11AZ 10- 004 I0I~

O1~D- -CN

7.~

2!- - - -

;c Iz

he ~*e t

I N=

tn~

I- -q0 V.

I 0 N0

Q -CV

C.N ie14 qr-0I C.4 ilw

ot-r W- N

I-

f-I m

Ac t- ~tI -crI I I - - -

-t Ia I: 1 0

'cCD~-- cc ( i

40

t ci

0-I

c L'

ct'

I~~ ~ C333f X w C cc K 0 N -0

CC I-CNC'coI-. to =c 2.C=I

Q- 4N tO 0W

co z 04 60

In to tI co OD 9) NCbo I-. C Ci4 toto I

I N-4 -4Ue4 r *

0 0D 0 .4 iCO N IWID. " cc N 0v

0 cY)MI N -* LO m 4

C)-

IlaI

I t N vW 4- 0, m 1 )- - mwN0N tvn wn wt-I L vI 02t ' to wC cit w L

uI- 1 04 Q-NCOS C-t U-fnL ý n6 )6 " nU nVk n4)L " UýU - C nL l ni ni Ot c0m0Vmi

0. 0 I- 0 C

C-4.

t-o

Wt .

1; -IýCý,

'I

NN NAAnMArEr~~- I a.- t-~ a-0 ~'& Mv rnO d - 111 O W CC4- N 4NC QCC

U'I) -W CW CC Ct- Co N-4nmw Nr m Cw kcw ci-4 t- CC)O21 I N 4 N-ýNý"- C4.. tC4~

Lr- = I

W. -C~

AMM

4c

CC

m -) -o N 6n U

C0 In, CD ; - w Cr)Nz el2 C - -4 N V -C ws 0m0j 4

4-~~- 2 - 4 t-C - NW P '

C.)~~~V VC C; wt t-; CNJC0W;C-

CýLI C "I -ý 1% --. * 'CC;I- It 4r 41') OD-' N IA)V0c n q It - .-CDCC-C4.-M' c o .(nat C CC

O r- C14 NeW m t 0 - - O44~e Q1 QM.WIAWat

On m -ClU o t Dý ) C r0ý t-- M C CM0L -CO w - -4 W - NQ -4 t-CoS - c 00 fC'C'NNJ v 0 0cv C wC'f 4 z tt- - wCC r.-4Nr, M0 "mC MC4'r.0M

Ir tot- qww -mv w L Cl NZ) O (D) v ~ i0 a- CVW LodCO M o 1 CQ&O9)a 0ww 0C "c

NC I to1- I cC rq >C l0q CDO 00q qC' Vw w D

Or < r2li02i C NC C 1-CyC- i N) C C0- < t d -C C O b.4 'C C D. C C- C-4WdCth C CO N 0. N-y C S-C

ND Si 0 bC )C0C N . .

a C 0zugbCCCC=> ----- L 4S C MC ~~ z A C

3' U'

C o v1. 4-

C~ dc C a

0 X'L 0 C c tic

4'i CCC 9. .C 0. 4N 4.) 0 )4

C~~~~ I'V- CC S4

C~~8 C.4 S -C QC *a 4.' V3' C ý -44

' 01 v404 Q 4' 3 ) I

c L)-C 0 cO 4 -C c 'S 0 3%2-C $.124 -4) Q tio

o~~~g c 0 tr MC)C * 3'

- C 4' CC. m .' 4 4i4' 4.)U L, uC'4C r MCVdl CC C C U C

5K V) 0 015 '. c CQ bS 1 3. L -0

C- s. V. C2 00 0 ' C

o b 0- 4' w.2'C- a NC 3-

el C) L' Cý0- N 0 C -C cC- %C Q C 4)

La 0C S 0 od N 4' 05 C Cc v .

-c L' 4c C) 0Z %w = C0n Or 340 -) -W IV400- v. 'S OU C 0 v. I

4-' 41 7. 'S c. C) 32 0'~ 0Q' C C

t) CL. r. 4V-) M(24 ItC 'S-4 S.. C

v C0 0 v *V 0 X 4Z 4 '0 4) 40 0 M M'S V) ow 0 0) C ) CV wC 4 C C 'S 4' C 3. C

1 00 -0' P, ='SC C C 3

4 0 'V 40 V 4' eC Ad 0 WC X' '

AD Cl Lv Vm C rA L N t' U CCCX 3ý v' 4' 0 4' FA'4 1 ) >.C - -4C . 0CC

- C U ~ ~ d 0 C >. 0 .'S 'C 10CC1) t

0-4 C CN, C 04.* ' 0* ' $0 +) C 0 C 0.a0 C 0 M c *4ý tO 444) 'S -' 0 0C

C~C c C 0 &0* 0 N 0C)C 04 C C 0U44' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - 4- C SO-'C lS ) 4 c '

L) 0. 4' C S. t') UCCO 41 ' C ý a- m 00U 2 C

-4 ' () 4' ) CdV0 C SC ''' o C e Z g0 C) Si .Q'

0' 0 0 I N 00 0 4') CC OHC 0 3 U4 3 4'C -43 4' a 4.11 Ox 06CI 4') L-C . C 4 ~

'S C C v C6 V.? M CCN C ' CS0 0 C4 0 'C ' C 4

2 .C v 04' QC C 4' CZC' OD 'D' C O % C tA .16 0 4 'VC . 4' 45 'S 0 0 3 $. 2 4''- CL C S 0 0 U S

-, 4 v 3.0 IQ zS 0ý Q41.C 4 0- .0 C 0. 0 ' =4 'S B-4 C S'S - 0 -. CS4'C -M -4C 00) C= C 'S. IV 'SC

do tS 4' C C C C'fr . . C toN os W~ 'S Cd 4

W U do' C S .2 $ ' C'-- V 4 3 'O0

S C. Uk 0a 4V0 4 ~ -CS -' -4 1 C3 0 VC 4' 0 c

2 4' * .~-4 'SC 04 6- V 'S C go43 ' C C U Wes -' C-'I C 0. 'L 00 C C C ' '' g) 0 .4 $. "4' CID 4-) 0' C

C~~~~~~~~~~ 3) 'S C6 -0C4 C. A 4'~ '4'4 -C 4 )C AC - S Q a C I . 4 - ' 4 3' X . r 4) L r -.1 ' 0 2 C - 4 'S 4 C

C ~~ ~I C~ *1 1*. m' C ~ 4 S 0 V C .' r' C')' 0. ' 02 * 0a to hi c4 C V4 C - 1)-'4''C $ 0 O 4) C) 41- C S 4 C 0-

~~~1 0 C- 0' 'SL C 'S toC3' 4 - ~ C C I04 C V C

-i .04 c 0. 4' 0 a.' . 0 4-O4 cZ CUV CC 4 2 a 0 a 4-)

E0 L 0 C4 $. I ' C 3.1 0 co 00- ,ý % 03C r- - OV L)(

7CC.2 C 2V 'a 3o -' o) 'S U--4- C cOa L4 C (11 ' CC-~ ~ ~~~~ 4-9 1. 'S

41 CC0 '-C'. C C 0. ' . C .2 C4

Z ~~ ~ 1 C CV 0' 'V UJ9IC'. 2''-SZ 4iSO C (0 r 0 0. C)

to - 4 'S. V 0 -1 'S.fV 0 40' 4S 0'41 C + ) 0 4.0

0 C $2 0 3e CK C 0.4 C'0 S. X.') 3 ' C 4-' tD4') - L tCe C 1 0 CC0 4 -) r.' ID C 4 ' -Z 4 - ' ' =t O 0> e 00 Z- -LO - C go0

-41 A U 3-'C 0 -4 0. C 4) r 4)OZ W) C X.1 dC0 QO .12 5

a' 0'-) 06 0C L. 0U0 3 ' - O CS 2 & L 'S - 4 -i ~ .22

C Zi~~ C) Z 03 50- 0-q- Cd 0 C SS'0 00- VC'-C C C CC f.4 ~ C

C) C ' . -4 '( ) V ) ( - C

Z CLI' N ') 4' U) a, C- X A~ 0- OD E. 4 .

C6C

$4.7v -

43 4). 4)jb

-I. 0. .L.0 - C C,$ c-I

> m 4V 0 -4)- M ti - L V4 v-

C, 0 4c $oto c4CL m .'w- 0s4

9) 4' X'-4 a . 0 C, 4 A4$4 C V .V1 o4)C-

cn c . C C 0 6o 0 40 4) p v aC 0 C 0 t o "aC2mr O--

*) IT. cc =40'c b> 0 1 4 -- )4 i4) 4ýc . 0 0 -04)) 20 = 0ACb 1£) U. () U 1. - WC.oM4- - & .

u-c c = 4' a 2. V 0 . 0.4 L 41)0 4 C-4 w4.4 Z 'a C. A 0- U.-d

C N 0 V 401 1l C 3 0 c 4> I D 4E 0 N- C V34 40 = 1 a 0 In &d) $ 0c $

41 44 . -L) 0 0f C LC o -C $4 4C -C g4 - w )0 - 0T'0. aC .£ 40 0N 04a3 4 $4 Tl v' 43=

4) - 4) vw4E 41K C S. $4 43 $4C 41CC4- It o M c-- C. CC 0 C r.

' 0) -. CC

Im mC , 4 L: cC C" N 0-- 0 c CL-+ -C" CL4 -L.fAU)v I21 +) U.0 C 3 06~jC 0 0.10 0-4 0A04)C -4

C 0. 40 1 C ) Co K +3 4-' $. n- C 43$4 0-mC ' C 4-V C U0 A) 'C L4 V2.0 WO43= . C-i

C16 ve.' $4 4jC C VV 0 CO 4.' V 0

t*oc :5 4 cC 0 .0C Wn *0 40-1CS 4 4) 0 .0 4 1. AV0 t. CC . . -0 - C 'N 0 0 43 44- C) c 4,) 04 ow3 4- C CC) CC C

41 00 04 CC C) 04 vl 0q40 0 4C 2% U $4) 04 0 0 .+) MW 0IV. C -( U-Vw4-C4 -4 r-4 -o $40 c4) CC - C

CJ C OCPC C 6 4 CO ) -0 0-4 CU U 6 0 0+C C , 4-4.) 0 4

4v >4 c CC t 4 '-'04*C 00D 4), C: nC -V4.'.000 0 C 0.04 Cr Z. 4-) $4 C 4J C4 CC- $40 $4

43 ti 43 6 36 C- -004-) 4CO C C4 SC 4. CC A0 a 4) 0 4 4)" "C o z Cc w2 $4 I CV 0- le41 fS $4 404 1. -c4wb. 0 4.) 43

W~~C-.C C, ICV U 4 C - C-4i

C Vtc- 0 2. 01. -0c 4 04)=0 Vbs410 '$ 9 .0 $4 .40 400 OC #AID O.0 C4 L. c 4 4 4-.) ý0 0-4 0.4 CO -4 A CC C: so 041

.0 b. u 44+3 .-4 4't S CZ0 430 044 t4 044 .4to4)a s-' 0.1C . CCD m 4. CV 2 %-4 C

0V 0 ~ C C 4-) 0' c) 0,04 'a 4'ý 0EC 4 ~-4 C+)2 U . 0 A 54) 40 C CV tO Al- Vs 4) CA 04) -0

C00 ; 00A -40 1, Z Ca C 4- C0 44.U $ L - 4~ C 40 z IV 4) Z40pr-C 4'- C 6- 9 434>3C 403 0 to r4) 004 .0- 40 I U4 r. V1 v .0+) 0.

0 c Goo LJ "C c .030.) 1Wz-* NO $41- $c 0 CC - 43 -04)) 04A 00 .300 0C 03 4)C --A U0 -C CC UtC 0 40 C $4a 0 0 1S. 0 , $4 0A - 40 03 8.-- , -4 0 C

2 S0 3 C- 0d c 0 - $4 +20 u 4- P 00 S40 0 0 0.0 00J 4-3 CC0 4- rV 0 .- $ QO C0 E-C 0C CCC t

0V 4 40V DI 4)43 .0 0-'--D AC t. 00 C40 id Ct.)i ) C0 0 SC 0 CV .04 CD -4c C V 0 r-C-5C 44- 40 01 A 4.O CC -4 -NC L

a4V >)V 4 4iu 0 It4 L C.O .4 ZJ 4 la W 0 0' 1- -D CwCjU ) c"V - 04 4-) CJ CC C U cv0t r-C +; z 430. C-4 > C 0. $- C4

4 4 4-4 LC34 C $4.4 -o 0O 3C to t .%0 0 C U4 95c 40 4-)4>$4 Vj a~W C.) ý4--4 0 4 C C- 04) Co v-'X)4 0. - S C COM-C 4..4 M

o 0 noCAOUA.A $44 0) o-C> 400 4 CC --4 $44004- c 1 V 0 m$4 U44 C -s 0. go C- do . J. 1.C, 0 C Na a- 0 - 40. Vw 04)

4a A 0 z3 40 U CS V 0o0 1 -4 coS 9C *C4 U- (4 U. VC 04 V 'r, m 3( CCC C 0( C r 4ýw) 444 CC U) id4. U b.$ Ct- V4.

+) 0 U04) V0 $ 4) f- 4C3 L4 IC 4 cI-4 u )+) or 30. Cc IDI)I=0 -C O-t CC -4 C. $4 X05 =4

0 :-IL -. o

'-C3-' U 'A0 6-4 :9 CC .- . 2 C C) fat -'v 0400 C) A-.) A.) $4 -C 40 $ C4 CS 4 : C. OD CC CC I- ' -42 C

CC c- c $440. C C X C 0 N 64)4) CC :).C C'V 4. rC $44 4W F0 24 r3 1-)4' 0 43 ) z0 40 C -C4$ - C f4 CC +)t- ')

$4 D4 CD : 4 6 ' CV C C C C -01 '2 C' . 1 k 3 t Cý

O -1( 04 0 0 C4 C04 C4 000-4 Ca V* U N C14 CAC m * 40m

2 CO '-CC V 3 44 4 - C ' C -. VO 940B-394 04

cw 4)0 41 qp.4 a 41 V)

C- r X44. V r p I

--4 - AZ C) 0 ACuf. t 0C

-. toCa r 4) 4) 9 01. )V 4r4) wL m00

4)2 6 )0 d) 0 I. v) 4)4 1 S $ 00 4 S. 0.0o 4 V (. ) 4 -C 4 + 0 -4 v~ S4) 4) v

it t..4 .00 ) 'f 0 04 ,C -4- 04 CC'W 4) 4 4) A3 b

m4 - 4)--0 0.)1 0 V 4.41 c- C4 to V4) INv 4.

2j 4-) L)4) M 0 0C4. C 4C do.- 5.-04 4) W 0 V 4 4

to)1 C V 4-4L C -04 04 ) do C' 0) 4A 45 4-' 5-. 4-)

4.C 4 fln C - c 4 ' V 04) - 16044 0 Cm u C

e_ im o) -4 IL .0i $ . 4 -) *04 ?1C -41 L.' 1-'0

0 0)4 tol -SC 1- 14 ) ~ 5 C C it) 2 04CC 01 - 1-4 5

41 f .- W0.o V 1- 41 -4 41 # 0 C101V 43 C1 0 .r. v4 4

so 4) 4) 4 04 C c4v 04)44 L. 4) C4) *4)C -1 430

1- ) $0 0 0 C)'.~ 4-) $ 01 C 4 4 4.)VV 4 ) C4-4) 4%4 .0)-

C) 0. C CUCO 40- 0)4 C LA 4)1. CC 4) . $ N S).

4) v)4 N 4)0. 4)4 vC> 0' c3 U)-4 L 4144 W SU 4

do L. *4 1- 4 4 4) t- I. U~ C 5- O C- 1.44)- b 0 v +)

*t - 4 40.44) 4 +) 1- 0 CL 00 1-AC 4M.'4) Z

c- 01 a0 2 4) ID V)1 0140 - ~ S CO 4-40 -W 1-0 0 C 4

- 1- to 4) -4 444) -i4 4 )ý0L. .4) c 44 4.' 4so01.Cv.o ti4 -4 4)) 4) - V-MC V C 4)))) COZ 0

O :K c .o 4 0 0 105A 1. 4) 0- C 0-2 ) W f- Pt4).W L 4- ) 4.' -0

N : r 4. 4- 2- $4 4 0C M W 4)+) -- 0. %-41 R4-) UIS-4 4) 4) 4) 4 M

ma C2 4) u~4) C VA 4) A 1a4 -qac 0>4 -. -3)4 1s Ac V IZO 114

4-% tO $) -4)4 1W 0 4) C -m 4 4) -- or 0 4j4 4) a:C £ - 0 41 Ac 04 005 4)0 EC>1 . C0-C r - C+ s) X4i

C- - c () 4.- ) 1.. 6 r 44 4 A 4) ý 04.0 4) ig4 0 04 U 0 Ir

- Ct - 4-4: 00 4)4 0~ C 0OV.L 0C3 0 V VA 04-e -4 - 0 .= - LZW 0 4-)4) 4)-l-1..4 4 )0 C .

Ct $ 4) Q2.-4 4 410 - 4)+0) C 0 -4) a . -N

a C) 4). V 4 J4 .- 5 4 1C -4 4c4) U 4c ID0JI T0 ig 4).4 1..- U 1 u 0

4.) C$ 0 4 0 C-4V V i 4 1 v4 5 C0 Ic v +') sw 4w 1-V SC 4) 40 C 04u

S. A- ~ ) C)4) 00 r V t. CU COm 6 v 0r A.)C 44)1- 0 I 4 ) 0 .0 0

4K V1 -4 1.04) -C 0 4 ý.- CC. 1- 00 4)-4 L. 4)0 0 4) -4)0 0 >x 0a

'C 40 r.4 - OZ4VC4 d 4) 1-4 1- 0 4 -) -41-S.C % 24) C- 0 2ý N1 00

4-70 04) C 0 4)4)0 o -WJ- 0ý4 = C -4) 30 4. u44-4) C) 4) -a000 c $

4) E4)- 0 21 - =) 104 %-4.W '-' 0 C v 0 01c.1 a 0VC00.A sh &6 z 40)

2 0. 0 01-3 05 4)4 %0. )) V4 CO 1) v. 4 A . 21.0 = 0

o 0. .) 4 - 4) V- 4') U ) 4w CC C004 C 4c' r41

1- 000-0 C 4 ) 04-) 4) 11 0 a. 4 ) 1-)2 CC 'CCC

%4 4a C A) 4 = C 0 U' V4 0 4)4 44h- 4) V 4 4) 4

() VC C- C 00.0 0.4- FAO 00 0 .40 0 g4WC4'IN 6-4 4)Co -4 -4 4 v4)4

1-.4 $- 1- .0 $0 4)4m N 0C 4)4 * 0 4.)00) 4) *)V1 .4)C C 6.0 00u

r. 4) '0- 4) - 3. c1- 0. -4)-40 0C 1-C m 4)rP)CCC C .4 C 40- - .- 5.0

oI)V-V 4.) 4)4 4) .04 V 4)4) V .0-e CU 0V4 04) -4 -4AC -C C4 04)

U ) 1-, U0 4)0 04 0 v) 4)14o)0ý4 a V0 C))) 02 do Q4 4)4

C x4 m) c 6144- 44 4C)4 R> (0 4) VACQ 34) O41a. 4A 41

01 - C)c 1- m m~e .4) k tc . vf 4)4 0u 4 4. +) 9 0)44)t Cc 9 V

C.' >0 c ) c0 0 0 ' .- 0 1 -'4 41 >5 A4)5 C C. u0 4. -4 4) C

- 0. CO4 0 1 +)4 - .) 4 c'to 010 U -CC0 4c 0-. C - 0-CO Q4 ) CC4 ) 04)

2 --- =0 4 OwIt ) 0 NOV 34 4)i a 5Vw-wO.V - -4 v4v 4) 6n 4-4

o1 4J4) 4 .4 ) to 4) to W4 w U4' 0'S 0 04 04 ) 4)4 4'3C C-5- 04 *) m - K t

44 $01 44 -4 A.CC 9 0 10 -4 Ca 0 440 xi 31>CvCm oV 4 144C4 V0 CV 00

2 4 .44) a C 00.0 -V 4.)'C4c C-4 s Ct 4)4))-- v. m44 $O V' -0

Cw ig a5 5 --4 S. -w 334) 41 - C4 c -. 45 14

NQ) .- 4)1C 1C M 4j 5 C 0 W1-- 44 41-41-4 L. 41 -

I-1- 1-)V 1- 4) 44)41-w 0 40 0 1. 1-4)Z)-in 0V0. 'a A)4 c 4

Ct 4 4)4 - -4 4)0CO 0 D 0 4"I 30 4' C )4-' - 6 5-d 4-) m -o 0-4

C ~ -. ci: 4)- 1-.- ~ '~' e1 ~ > >44) go C-4M 0-4C go 4

~ 2 )5 CD 41404I) 1-C 4-)004)4) Q 0 1.4) 0 CC - ar *1 9I4 &0 Cc U oV Czh K -4 VW 2. 'C 1- 'D I4 - 4)S. 1. 4) -0 tOV0 Q4-)C 1- 4)4 14

u1 1-14 4) ri-4 En)V4)4 C 0c0 40 L)4 U 4IV) 4') )4)04) 4)ý1- 400UGfb 4.) ID tC 04)

- 0 04) _00 C C iCO.== 01 a 'c-c4)C 0 cg C 0C AC W -4) C .0114)5%W4%4 = 00W. 0 0

'C Zi) 0.- S0 0 ý 1 1-~ 7-) C --. 4 m. 04 44) I- 4c 41'0t 1- 0. A'c o00 1- *4 2

le CD (0 - 01) cri 0ý w4 Nm mtC* m) m2 C ) m) m) 4r W q4 V w

ods)

0 u0 4) ... Zc MV 4 C) C1 V ID C. 01c 4Lu0 . d c be v

L.4. .Cc -.- %.4 .4 m v I . 0 0; V00 Ad0 0~ 4 14 4)) c a''ID r1. '0( 434) c '0 49 C 0 43 4-

49494 569 CCC *' 0. '0 a,.- 4CL. C1 r.- '49 49J.- 1 4H44a04 CE) 04 w*4 a9 43 06 4; r. 3 O A 431C. -4r 0 4 . ý c 91. 4 .) 0 0 0 W o4.)40cC V43 £4 C0 to 0 C3 1.2 m4V3 16 C 4.9 1.tic 0 :h CCC 4J 0 C 430 C) h. fd 4 L0 .m r- U I.-. Co c1 Oc D% CtooA.C-4 S-E 49 4 4 31 C 41 C U 4) 0 -C' .14

O r& 4943 *- 0.4 3 0 c9 C= c409 c- AD- = 0 v3I - C -t C C Gc +)- 49 - v 14J C

1. N C) CO WOC 1. -4 C '0 1. P.4 14 C

c C cc 4)W CCz r C C) v. 4 43 VC'~~~d -r W- 443 a5 4 ) .4 -

aIN0 4 -t 0 C .4 It; 4- O L. . CCI)44cc .0 4a OW) 31. C04 C 1 d' -43 430 .. 0 490C 0 to*3 .O) 044 ml, C r.r U 6- C -up O9 OC .4 9 49 0 44 43) :b,) 04 0 Q-4333 ) CS &1. "4 e 34 '0 to) -c m~ -4 w4+4cC.0

-69*. -.0 13 C 494 C-r - 43 C =0 Z. 439.v' 0 4 10c Wc -4 -C 44) 49'0 rC1.C

u 0 u c 44-' C 34) 4943 00 09 m) 4 s 4w 4 0. 34 3.04 Cx w)43 *)44)) 1 C 4349 4) 0 - 49 40. C- 494 1 - 0wCC- C. -4409 C C .4; 44-4 m .0 41 1 M'f CC ID3

0 CC1 mV 10 ' C 4) 04 43- di C.) 4V 43 .0 4949 43 - '1Q %4~ 4) 43 4)w 9 ID '0 2 a 043 043 $% 3 w9c0: 0 51.4 le- m3. '0 04 N 4) N. 0 '04 CQ u 0~A~. L4.) 43.' -4 .04- CO ('4 tie .0i DO a -4 -Z 0.4 -4-1 09- u- V 0 43 C~ 0 to c 1 . 4) 43) m .4 1. 43 44.4 43 43)Wf 6.- 10)4 3.49 0 =3441 '0 . 41 v I a. -4 zr.~ 49

0 -- 0P.43 -'c ) 0. 40 CC 10 %4 -D 43 C '4 0-' cC~ ~~~~~ -40C O P04 4 43-4 . U 0- 4940

o w- 10 0 0. 0 4 43- 2 C -V. 4) 4 04 43) 430. 1-4 0 At *S. 0 L4 043ý 0 c4-4 4) 433) 3i c 4 ac 032v ) cC 414 49 c C) a 1. e 1. cE 0 1I . iC v.Q 494) v91.4 A 0 (4) 0 494) $-, 0 43 -E 5 " 1. C09- 49A 1.0 1.49W tc 43 4--C04 v 494; 41 49 49 %U 0 ID4 41410 430 ,% m1. 43)44)3 d)1 49 -43 x.4 C 1 43 1. 14 d -.' 41C 63 >-4 490243 0-4 49 243 Q0.3$. 1.9I " .c CC d 14w 0 .43 Q.4 00.190 4) 0 43 0.04 .043) C 143.) 01. $4 - 0 %4 c C 5 X43 a0C u &IV 430 0 051-0 C it : c -494-4 4) 494 C0 00 u N L1 -' aV SC .40 C) c £lt) Er C44 m) 4134) -43)04 0 49K 49 C 4) 4) 4) c O.CC'M 430 V1 1 C41 wC WI a 5 4431. 0 w9) C C 4 - A &49 41 .1. 43.4= -14 4.3 t-4 044 04 Q - U l C . 4 I 144 41.- C3C' 4

m 41 V4 4)41' S- 1.43 V49 0o F 1 4949 0. 0 k.Q. L 0 49Z 4)c P. 0 qO 4 L -11 1. .- 03.. 0 ft 43CC A4 0 43 CC 431 0 Q 400 49C. 0C W0 43 0 04W INA 0 00 CC 0 N 0 . 0 pC 00 A9 4)049 0 00 491&.a c 4m C c 44 * m1.1.4 0D 43 C c z CC.) 1-4 00 go r. 0 00. Cc -4 1 491'r. L 40-' S 143) 4340 v 94 .4 -4 .C 10Alr -M 0 0V *44-43490 2 c 1. 4D 43N0.M1A- tt 43W 4-) 9 43 -C CU C I-4 a1icC o C 4 .469 9LC 0. 1.43.- DW tc L U S. o 0 M1. '0 49 V) OC cc C L =-; 1 49A3 0.0 '0; 4.) 439-4L) o 0 C 0.0 4990 - S,. 1 .4 1. 0 '04 -4 M4)4 -A -.4 En U "- Mc 43)C - 06c9I9 10 404 1 HC4494 4)3 21 .$-b4)4V 4)49p -4 IV 4D 4) v4 a. 04 010V4", C_nc 44) C) 1 =v 3 S. a 49 4 -43: 40 C C C i 514 v49 do C - .61 0 CcIc' t 4 CC 1. r44r9 w0 f O 4D449.1 49 43 '4 1. D 1. Q -4ivad6 a04V 4v c 04) 43)1. c- PO ~ 0. 16, U0 49 49.0 ID4)) v v 4)4v 4) 0. C9 49Zr4 aQ 3 0 -L3. h0 CtO ) -44 01 9 CL 1-4 c- = - 0. C ) c.- fr_ =.4 6VC 6)t

0' Wo m) 0D m 4 ' w t cc t- CO 0) 0 D 'Va W o U ) U-) Ul) W) Ln U) LO CD (opC

4-)

14 C

A.Vr 4 c 2

0 ) -C4 aS 0%4 4; ) c0 ") 4 4-) C~

4-) 4 : c1 0 T 0

0 0 1-1. CC. 4-) 14 m) 4 4 CVQ0 4C aA. rC 0-4 C I

bC 91 .) 4 0. 0ML %. 3z 644 - c a. c-CC 0 oo C ) c Ln I C.o10 cc so TA c'. Q Ck Ca -s o- ý C .4' 0 41) w 4

ft.cl :1 0C 411 I ' 4C~~ 4)4 9C4k C ~ .4) a c c9 ) V) 441 4. - 0- .0 -,4 L) Ow W. .4

4' Vw 40 ._ C b- 4-' 4 0. CI) %2 V m CCD C 04 4'0 0 CC c . 2. c6 ae. . -A C 0.-b.ý CO -4s IC C 0 9 0 14 040 u.) VC. AC co ouf 0 S.D us. 2D - o 40 m )Z V44 C W' ui 1) S. CN- FD ..C

Io C4U a '. L)4 41- 0) A'.)- 4)0 a .o. 462 2. WV0 g uo 2.0 960 4CD &-. C V3 4) 0- m~ 3h N .~4c0

c: w' 06 40 +) -4 4A U - 4' V +) 04) C2 4 00 1. W w & 0 C.. .0 h. CCO4 0- 2 10 00r 0 V - CE) -V S. 0, a 4)1 C 0. 0 A 0) 00 a V1a 4'6. -C-C 4 4m .0 4Z IQ Ir +)= f a M c am W a -440- 2. - $.CI V 4) C 0 4) + V C Z C- C4 4-I 4-).C 24 - -C 4 ts1 V.0. a44 04 _' .4 0 4)w )3v -0 tic 44'T L) cG) 00 c - COW 1C- . 4J CC 0 4)4 X1 c

Vz 14 it,6 I'~ v 4 0 4- 4)1 C l 0.4 0D 0L 9 040 41 .9 I to)4 OW C 4 #3 C 0 vC4 - 04) ..- z - C V CxNx 4 4' 0 ~ 1414 tieC 0. a) 4) C .CC C U2.C 4) 0U)4 C Q 4 C41 444 44 C C 4) -0 4) Q 03 4) CCC006 6 -ý z4 06 14ý - Vi 1- 4 w- " 00- Ca C 0 C v*A V4 OCO SL 0- so 1 44) -4 C . 4.) C U Ao 4' C 0

v-4. ) . C 0 t 04 4 40 C 214 C %4) 0 4- 4) C 0 h C- -O4)0 COC CC L)4 V t _ -4 r.4 - C-- '4) - 4-'C 4-) ' q-

0c 0 CC1 -c- V 0 r_ IV 1. 1 Q C 1 -4 CZ~ ~ 4) 4) £0 C0 C) U CC 0*0)0 I. CC V )- D 0 C )o V ZV 40C 0 J - 3 1 C r.) 04 V 0 0 U U4 cI-ý Si C V SC 4 0 4-1 C44) 4) 03 0j 41 41 VC 0. v. =) LEO VLI 30. 4) 4J W- 0- 4 .0 C C )4)0 , . 4' 0 C 4L)141b 0.- Cr 2. V 41 Z1 -' 1. Q ) ' 10 04)0 4-) 0 C:

4) W '06 bWD -M0r 4 U ) 0 4) 0 -I bý C4) C C LU v0 b-- .0 -4 14C V IV -0 0 30 0 C -4 "D %d C .C ' +14 4) C ) 4' 4-)-_ 04 Q~ cw c ) 4) 4)10 4) w C C. V o 4' Cp c3)

-C C c 06 v1 m V C0 C h C ti -4~ £0 -- 4 04-) -4)4 4)0- 4)o1 I A '1 Co LU R04 (4 Cj 4) 4)4r' I $4' .0 1C 44) C CC4 C. fa 4)r. OW C) 14C CC z 0 V 4 1 C 00 4') W0 C4 0 40 .D C 14ý14 4D U . .)4' %4)0 4C 3 1 Q o w 0 44 CC w 1- 0 C v44) 4) c0 4) 4'(1 0) f!! A. 0 C) C C 63 0I -Is C 1.I 4 - -. C

0 4' Ci -C 4 U ) 0O- 0 r C 4) a)- A1S.4 0 VCt' C 04) C C C- 4) S L) $-5 IntC$C 04 C C 6. r ) - 4)4 =) 0O C r.00 -c A 0' - .9 c0Z C 0k Z- Q CW I- U V 54 - 4 ) 4)- 4 4

- ~ I &C) co ) 0 . 4) 4 C 4 C 1 iý4 0 0 C C CCC O 4' WC- 4)3 C- CC.- C 4 -)V S - c r43 CoC

0

o .0

00 0 -C c -

6 -. 04 4- ' m 3- 4J4 0 - C

ou 460 go0c g4b.. 4 c ~ 3uoc -c w

c- 43 4) cc C ic -. o a- e

0 v): cc

ID 0 @0: I s

ID 2

0. C &I0. CC 0

1, m u- ' 0 U1 to -0L) 4Q 3 C -4 0430 Cý

£) 0w 03 0 cl Cn C do - C

~4 0 '4 r 063C Zr-06

'V~ ~~~~ V +) - Ol C

to 4) -4 04 C C43 C 0

$4.0 C 1Q 4 03 0 434 zL. () (. CI 3.C 3 C

V0 C C ,~ 0 1.. S4140 C

43 43) 4130) 410 v 0 0 1M4 0 -4C

o 00 4) M 1- -4 4CC a * '

.C 4) t 40 43 3W -64Z 3) )

41 *w L.6 -.4 C. - 0COC 0 0 C-4 ~ " C C~(443 ag C C 45 c4 6

.4~ ~~ -3Z- 00 ~C -C -4 C -CC 1 C I.Cc il - CCI .0 C U OS -4

C. C c9 0 A.02 09 0s NC il C4 6V 46 0

6w W C CCn 06 L. 3 011 #14 2- 3A0 =41 tC 3

S3 4) 634) C 41 go C 0 44 C W 04 K'4 C .CT

6 6'4 =0 . - to AM ' v 3 Id U -4 216 - ~ be

+ 43 .0 4)43 Ad L. 02 0 -4 C 0 -4 430 -1 46 C0 0

C C VS 6 0 00 43 .0Q 2 OCC do CC 44

4o C 44) . r CL.0- 43 C5 - C 4 1" '4w 0436 v0> v

w CC C - Q.' -4 U-4 to 0 1- VcCdo 0 -4 43 C

V c 0-40 0 2Wt) c6 6 V m 2 & C4)* fm 43 A00 6- UC 4 0 0 C C S.. a U -4 C U0 tC .0 U

42 4J Q)' V0 r 4 ad C 4do4)60 CC 4

41 > 43).0 C 0 - C AD CC C 0. d 41 06 6tC

6 0 CC 4 -'C C U C 0-4 C . 0 IU C'4C " . 3 0

2 S 4) O- Ag C 43 -44 41 4D -. 46 C. .0 0*0 tic3 C 41V 0 C0 -4 +3 0 C C ) C' C 0

C 0 41 C-o .0 a 3 A4 -4431 4 C 2 V.VC~ ~~ ~~ C C C 43 0 A C i* O . C

U W-4) 3 4 c CJ C .4 .43 410V -4 CCo cc do60 4.C 4 6. C 0 02 C-' -c CCla C11 .0 V

CU 2 ) 33 0 w2 A -4 4) c 0 C$-y 6 03 3> a rQ.0 -4 3 -C C 41 V J 0 c 41 -w 1.- .0-' 0 -

-4 ' M4 C C C C U C-40- 0g c 434144 30 044% 43- C -4 U 0 'o c 4U cV C 3 -0 6 6 C

N, CC CUO C- 06-4 ' -4C . 4) 6 6 6 43

43 CS vU1 04 -C40 4w do 4U CM 06-4 C~4 C -4

C 43) -4 0 4w4- O QJ C C m 04J M C -4 14 to 0 C 43 C V

* Cl C 6402 IOQ 0 + 0 C 6 0 10. C 06 a - 0 3 o0.C M C C c. C C- C) Cd C0 c 0* C .0- C0

0 4 3 .44 0 6 4 Li -4 C s6 c C4 w 0 cC-4 0 643-) to0 5 C C C 43 +3 4-3 o4l Ca' 4C C' 41 -C=C ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 4 ; CC 00) - 4 9 C S C C 430 C4 41

6~~~~~~~~~~~ 04 OC C.C >0100 5 £ S C 4 0

rC -' 0C uC a 0. -C C. -45 43 C43) 4 Ut4 0 OsC

U C O t4 6 C C) -4 24 C0 a' U. .0 U~ 0w C 43 34 1",'

co C) -'0 -4 0 CM 3 w go -ý-~ 4 CC & 00,' 00'4 6C 6 0 4j 0 4J 0 C 0 C 3 414 r4 -1 U~ -4 0 41

.0 v r. 64- 43 Ic 3 42 43 go0 al 44 SC C M 4364 436 - U

C 1 doC4 C-4 -4 U -4 -4 '7 U C 4a 0 CC+43V0-4

do. 06 Ct- C

V 3 01. 6430 do 'V M 0 A W- ha C -4 43 -4 C w . 26 c -4C 0j C, c

v) C 4) 0 4 v5C go4 0 C4 662 U -4 4)- 4C - -t

I ~ ~~~ T9 -ý 6. C 4 +3) .

a- 0) c- o0 .LL C 43 c ~C 0 4 )) 43 044 2 C C 6 IC co

3. 0 C OaC C C -. 6 0 N 0. L 4 bC > 004C IC C

0' co co CI CI C0 C ID C) M2 0 m (4 (2 4) m ~ (M C- 04

C ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~T- Ic 0 ~0 2 a 2 O s 0 50 2 -

4v

OW 4J 0)0

41 0

C~ -C464)

ol c c c uC' 0 c0 4)

C-4 -- x4C) C -L , 4 ) 0 ..

0 u 0 ID-2110 0 0v

0 4,)c 414 -o1-4 - Q6 CJ t4 1 40

C ) £) 4 0Ca 4 04) 4; 1 CD.4 m

C 41)0C

0 0 'r-4A

IC 4.) cV m) 4

i - 1ý4)

CHANCE CONTROL BOARD PROGRAM DESCRIPTIONS

1. CCB 761-191 deals with the portion of the OSIP dedicated toinstalling the improved UHF Radio Set into the A-7A and A-7B.Replacement of the AN/ARC-51 with the AN/ARC-159(V)5 in the A-7A/B will increase the number of channels from 3500 to 7000,require less operating power, require less space, increase theMTBF from 50 hours for the ARC-51 to greater than 500 hours forthe ARC-159. Weight reduction will be approximately 23 pounds.This is an operational improvement change.

2. CCB 751-506 deals with the portion of the OSIP dedicated toreplacement of the AN/ARC-51 and AN/ARR-69 with dual AN/ARC-159radios in the A-7E aircraft. New production A-7E aircraftreceived the dual AN/ARC-159 installation under the first issueof this CCB.

3. CCB 791-340 providei for the installation of the chaffdispensers. With the exception of the Aero ID 300 gallon droptank and the ALQ-99 Tactical Jamming Pod, the EA-6B did not havean ordnance carriage capability. This l.mited both training andoperational employment of the aircraft. This change allows forcarriage of the ALE-41 Bulk Chaff Dispenser on the five podstations. Therefore, training and operational constraints arerelieved and mission capability is significantly enhanced. Thechange was to be incorporated in 7 production aircraft by GAC. Atotal of 52 retrofit kits were required for installation by thedepot level of repair. This is a product improvement change.

4. CCB 871-236 addresses the operational requirement for acountermeasures dispensing subsystem installed in the OV-10A/C toprovide added protection for the aircraft operating in a hostileenvironment. (This ECP is an expansion of the original submittedby Rockwell International as OV-10D-16RI approved by ACCE 801-44,AFC 82.) This is an operational improvement change.

5. CCB 881-69 fulfills the operational requirement for thechaff flare Auto Radar Warning/Dispensing System. The AN/ALE-39Countermeasures Dispensing Set interfaced with the AN/APR-39Radar Signal Detecting Set greatly enhances the non-vulnerabilityof the CH-53A/D aircraft operating in a missile environment.This is a survivability and vulnerability change.

6. CCB 781-330 funds the retrofit installation of the enhanceddigital scan converter group (EDSCG). GFE EDSCG are required,consisting of: 1 ea- Signa. Data Converter, Intra Target DataIndicator, Power Supply Programmer Kit, Antenna/Receiver Kit, andControl Kit Set. This is an operational improvement.

7. CCB 811-201 covers the installation of the dual LTN-72Inertial Navigation Sets in lieu of dual AN/ASN-84 in deliveredP-3C aircraft. The LTN-72 is a more reliable, all-weather, easy-

B-45

to-maintain, worldwide navigation system that is independent ofground based navigational aids. This is a reliability andmaintainability change.

8. CCB 811-264 provides for the replacement of the (GFE) ARN-81Loran with the (GFE) LTN-211 OMEGA Navigation System in deliveredP-3C Non-Update Aircraft. The worldwide system of LORAN "A" hasbeen decommissioned, thus rendering all such receivers obsolete.The ARN-81 LORAN in the P-3C is capable of receiving both LORAN"A" and LORAN "C" signals but LORAN "C" is intended for coastalnavigation and is not considered long range. Consequently, thenon-updated P-3C finds itself deficient in long range radionavigational capability.

The LTN-211 is a commercial, stand alone, worldwide, all-weather navigation aid built to ARINC 599 standards. This systemprovides automatic synchronization and continuously suppliesaccurate position, navigation and guidance data necessary forlong range navigation. The commercial reliability design is to1500 hours MTBF and performance accuracy is expected to be lessthan 2 NM. The LTN-211 is currently being utilized by the A-3aircraft. P-3C Update and P-3A/B NAV/MOD aircraft are equippedwith the ARN-99 OMEGA system which is not stand alone andtherefore is not suitable for the P-3C Non-Update. This is anoperational requirement change.

9. CCB 821-176 funds the installation of the CT-39 Primus 400Radar. The installations preclude excessive mission aborts andaircraft downtime because current commercial system support isbeing eliminated. This is a reliability and maintainabilitychange.

10. CCB 821-55 funds the installation of the AN/ARN-118 TACAN.The AN/ARN-52 MFHBF rate in the H-46 is 29.6 hours. The AN/ARN-118 MFHBF is greater than 1000 hours as demonstrated in similarapplications (CG-53E arid AH-i). In addition, the AN/ARN-118incorporates Go/No-Go Test for Pre/In-Flight Checkout and Built-In-Test (BIT) capability for isolating faults to the plug-inmodular level. These features are not available in the AN/APN-52equipment. This is a reliability and maintainability change.

11. CCB 812-60 funds the Search, Terrain Clearance and AFCModules for the APQ-156 radar. The Terrain Clearance moduleimprovement will provide at least a 3 to 1 improvement inreliability and a reduction from 60 to 10 adjustments perfailure. Grumman companion ECP-872R1 provides for airframe/vehicle impact. This is a reliability and maintainabilityimprovement.

12. CCB 822-19 provides for the AN/AXX-l Television Camera SetInterface portion of the OSIP. This ECP proposes hardware modi-fications to the AN/AWG-9 System (WRA 481501 and 481580) toprovide compatibility with TCS. The 481501 Sensor Control PanelWRA will be modified to delete IR, TV and Mission Data Recorder

B-46

panel interface functions from present panel interface andreplace with TCS and Airborne Video Tape Recorder (AVTR)controls. The 481580 Tactical Information Display (TID) will bemodified to 1) present tactical data to the pilot while the TV isbeing displayed on TID and 2) to reduce noise and providecompatibility with tne TCS video. This is an operationalimprovement change.

13. CCB 791-260 provides for the Installation Provisions for theSensor (CTVS), AN/AXQ-16(V). The basic ECP provides electricalprovisions for the installation of the KB-26B Gun Camera inproduction A/C A405 and subsequent. Subsequently, a revision toECP 995 was requested to provide incorporation of additional (tothe KB-26B Gun Camera installation) wiring and mounting provi-sions for the installation of a Cockpit Television Sensor (CTVS)System in the F-14 aircraft. This is an operational improvementchange.

14. CCB 821-44 provides for the Television Camera Set (TCS)System and Airborne Video Tape Recorder (AVTR). The TCS is anelectro-optical system that provides the F-14A flight crew withthe ability to detect, identify, and track airborne or groundtargets at long standoff ranges during daylight conditions. TheAVTR provides a recording of the TCS video display and crew ICSaudio. Taroets are displayed as high-quality, magnified televi-sion images in the front cockpit on the Vertical Display Indi-cator' (VDI) and in the aft cockpit on the Tactical InformationDisplay (TID) and/or the Digital Display "DD" (when deployed).This is an operational improvement change.

15. CCB 841-42 funds the incorporation of the microstripantennas into several models of aircraft. A potential safety-of-flight situation presently exists in A-6 aircraft when the solid-state RT -1042A/APN-194 Radar Altimeter is installed. Thealtimeter then has a tendency to show a false lock-up at 10 feet.Although the solid-state unit will eventually be modified tocorrect this condition, using the already developed and testedmicrostrip AS-2741/APN-194 antenna will provide a short termsolution, because of its superior isolation characteristics. Thenew antenna is directly interchangeable with the present antennaand can be installed using the same mounting holes. This is anoperational improvement change.

16. CCB 822-78 funds the AN/APX-76 and RT-988/A ReliabilityCentered Maintenance Improvement Plan. Units which underwent TCMrework showed a MFHBF improvement which placed the equipmentreliability near to its inherent MTBF. The AN/APX-76 is rankedon the Common Equipment RISE. FY 79 and subsequent have thechange incorporated in production.

17. CCB 832-88 funds the R&M Improvements to the RT 743B/ARC-51A. The ECP improves the ARC-51A operational readiness,reliability, and reduces system support costs. The ARC-51A willbe modified over a five year period affecting 1099 radio sets.

B-47

The ARC-51A is an out-of-production radio. These improvementshave been demonstrated on the 220 units under the DRAP. Thereliability has been improved from 60 MFHBF to 160 MFHBF.Retrofit will be accomplished by a rotable pool. The change willeliminate the need to incorporate any outstanding AVCs.

18. CCB 832-37 funds the AVC portion of the OSIP, the R&Mimprovement to the AN/APN-182. The AN/APN-182(V) Navigation Setis the ground speed and hover sensor for H-2, H-3 and H-46helicopters. Vacuum tubes are used in the power supply moduleand a Xlystron tube is used in the transmitter. Klystron andpower supply tubes are life limited (500 hours) and expensive($1000). Maintenance adjustments are required as the klystronages. This change will replace the klystron with a solid statedevice and will use a solid state low voltage power supplymodule. It is expected that reliability will increase by afactor of 2 from 65 MFHBF to 150 MFHBF and that maintenancerequirements will be reduced. This change can be made to the setwhile installed in the aircraft. Support equipment is notaffected. Ship installations are not affected. This change wasapproved for production incorporation by ACCB 822-84 on 14 April1982. This is a reliability and maintainability change.

19. CCB 841-266 funds the AFC portion of the OSIP. In order toinstall the AVC portion of the OSIP into H-2 aircraft, acompanion H-2 Airframe Change was needed. Associated drawings,and initial technical manual updates were accomplished byTeledyne Ryan ECP 588-1-080-Rl and approved for productionincorporation. Additional publication costs are to revise BuNoeffectivity to include retrofit SH-2F inventory. This is areliability and maintainability change. No hardware change isinvolved.

20. CCB 841-373 funds the C-130 Aircraft Pvionic SystemsImprovement Program (ASIP). The ASIP installs the DF-206Automatic Direction Finder (ADF) to replace the AN/ARN-6 and theAN/ARN-83 in C/KC-130 aircraft; installs the AN/ARN-118 andAN/ARN-139 TACANs to replace the AN/ARN-21 and AN/ARN-84(V) inC/1KC-130 aircraft; installs the VHF dual COMM/NAV systemconsisting of the AN/ARC-186 Transceiver and The AN/ARN-126Receiver, to replace Radio Sets AN/ARC-73, AN/ARC-84, AN/ARC-131,AN/ARN-14, AN/ARN-18, AN/ARN-32, AN/ARN-67, and the 51z-4;installs provisions in the remainder of the KC-130 aircraft forthe AN/UYQ-3A airborne Direct Air Support Center (DASC). Thesystems are in full production and used in other DOD applica-tions, including another Navy model of the C-130 (the KC-130T).This is a reliability and maintainability change.

21. CCB 781-162 funds the installation of the AN/ARN-118 TACANinto the TA-4F/J aircraft. It is a reliability change.

22. CCB 801-45 funds the incorporation of PDS level 1 improve-ments. Costs reflected here do not include CCB 822-124 (AN/AYK-14(V) Wing Handle Correction on XN-1 Chassis), also under this

OSIP. This is an operational improvement change.

23. CCB 821-250 funds the installation of the ARC-159 radiosinto the F-4S. The GFE (from Collins) for the basic equipmentconsists of the following: switching assembly (1), receiver-transmitters (2), radio set control (4), frequency channelindicator (1), TSEC/KY-28 control (1), mounting base (1),mounting base (2). It is a reliability and maintainabilitychange.

24. CCB 791-259 funds the kits and installations needed toretrofit the HARPOON capability into the P-3B aircraft. Thischange is an urgent operational improvement.

25. CCB 811-139 funds the kits and installation necessary forthe GFE AN/AWG-19B(V) HACLCS including the SM-769/AWG-19B(V) HMSin the Pre-Update P-3C aircraft. The HACLCS will provide HARPOONmissile capability for the aircraft. ECPs P3-846 and P3-902R1provided for production incorporation. The HMS is needed tomaintain crew proficiency without expending an operational weaponand to provide training for abnormal HARPOON missile conditions.GFE provided by ESA-20723B Procurement Request to McDonnellDouglas Astronautics Co. ECP 923S1 provides the Harpoon capablepylons.

26. CCB 822-90 funds the angle of attack reliability improvementprogram. An AERMIP was conducted to improve the reliability andmaintainability of the SLZ-9028G indicator. A reliabilityimprovement was successfully demonstrated which improved theindicator's MTBF from 112 hours to (500-1000) hours. Themodifications consist of replacing the electromechanical (relay)motor drive control assembly with solid state circuitry andreplacing wear-out components (motor, follow-up potentiometer,off-flag and switches) with newer components. This is a reliabil-ity improvement change.

27. CCB 7)1-241 funds the A-7E electronics warfare improvements.Vought submitted the ECP to retrofit A-7E aircraft with airframeprovisions to accommodate the installation of the improvedAN/ARL-45F, AN/APR-43 and AN/ALW-26B systems. The AN/APR-43 isprocured as GFE via a separate ACCB action. This is an opera-tional improvement change. Costs here do not reflect fundsunder ECPs which dealt with problems arising after design of thekit. CCB 842-161 corrected problems with subject mount identi-fied during verification testing. The ECP orders cutting a notchin a corner of the shock tray to eliminate interference withother equipment. ECP 842-75 incorporates new look-throughtiming to make installed system operable with onboard ALQ-162.

APPENDIX C

WIRING CHANGE COMPLEXITY CLASSIFICATIONS

AVIONICS CHANGE (AVC)WIRING CHANGE COMPLEXITY CLASSIFICATIONS

0. None.

1. Small scale modification consisting of simple part or partsreplacement, change of wire or connector, label change orsimilar activity. Can be accomplished in 10 hours or less.

2. Medium scale modification consisting of addition, removal orreplacement of several electronic parts, wires or cableharness, Reliability & Maintainability (R&M) improvements orreplacement of tube-type with solid-state components. Mayrequire from 10 to 75 hours to accomplish.

3. Large scale modification consisting of replacement of parts,circuit bodrds, wiring and cable harnesses that materiallyenhances capability of the system. Completed modificationwill require extensive testing before returning to service.Will require 75 to 200 hours to accomplish.

4. Major equipment modification in which extensive wiring ormodifications are made to complex equipment (such asdetection systems, computers, etc.) or black-box modifica-tions involving over 50 percent of the functional com-ponents. May require replacement of large numbers ofcircuit components, wire, connectors, cable harnesses.Substitution of printed circuit boards or shop replaceableunits may accompany the modification. Extensive testing andcheckout will be required, and the modification will in allprobability be accompanied by extensive changes to supportequipment and training equipment. The modification andtesting will require over 200 hours.

C-I

AIRFRAME CHANGE (AFC)WIRING CHANGE COMPLEXITY CLASSIFICATIONS

0. None.

). Small scale changes to electrical or signal wiring orconnectors to accommodate new equipment or removals of someexisting wiring that is no longer required.

2. Medium scale cabling changes involving replacement of one ormore cabling harnesses or inte:.onnection between severalnew or existing units.

3. Large scale wiring changes such as interconnection of-numerous electronic systems to accommodate a new centralcomputer, integration of all aircraft weapons into newcentral weapon control system, or wing wiring of pylons toweapon control system to handle missile systems.

4. Major rewiring of the aircraft such as removal and replace-ment of all aircraft or wing wiring or installation of adata bus in lieu of standard wiring.

C-2

APPENDIX D

INSTALLATION MANHOUR DATA USED FOR LEARNINGCURVE CALCULATIONS

lectiot Criteria for Sample to Calculate Averate keningii Cgrye

M~ 71711 Q2 0902 L. CORTI ACTION RIISOI

C1C500210 31301 1O CAPAIIOR?0 BAill 1130k STIP ARC PV17 4 13.00 70.711AAVI2ý5 Al IPI-194!14i HDADI 101 SYS.IINCRG INS%' 07 46 11.33 58.372 delete coder 60%IAC11U'-SS 1 92' MP-194/141, WAAR 11971 S!S.1I7CI 1837k 0f 59 11.19 65.581A11100291 00 LPI1944'P8-14l S7O8&G1 COIIICT01/303?11 146 0.18 99.331 delete Admit godAAIMI398 Al IPI-194.'PI-14l SIOWIGI COIIIC700/JUHPKR 119 12.24 99.83%AA15001.06 1 Al I/ '01-194'1).PROVISIOES 10R 78 67.08 87,861 delete armor plate installation (see td)911004214 Al 11/A01194 RAMA ALI,71171, PIOYISIOIS 101 79 13.92 114.66%991500461 Al RAAR AkTIlHIM, ROD Of 4 37.00 50.00% delete eider 60%, bad dataAFFSO0570 4.1 ZI1C700IIC Aof1tA/?-94lSk0 206 11.26 88.771 delete msat as 12 kit, diff aosecapAIP500570 12 ILIC7ROIIC AkIBlH11,11/API-194,1337k Of 313 19.45 87.09%A7P500570 1 00 IIICIIOIIC OfIIIAIAI14ISk0 497 1.14 153.711 delete adain sodAPBS00300 Al RADW III SYS;PIOI 708 973-1941 ILIC L113 SI? 96 10.32 50.002 delete coder 601, bad dataA7B500354 Al IN/097194, 13371 Of 249 30.61 81.591AT1500056 00 11/01R-194 RAW9 IAk7111711IIC 0f 40 0.05 $0.00% combhne parts of mod, bad dataI71500096 01 Al!APO-194 WAAR AITIIITIR.IIC Or 37 123.43 15.33% combine parts of sodAT1,500096 02 011970-194 RADA A17131?1R,IIC Of 37 89.54 96.381 combin parts of mod978300233 01 ?OIk P08? SCAIGIIGR 18117 SCRIII IDDITIO1 316 5.20 106.56% delete mon-avionics sod9730 0 326 Al INFIOVID IACTIICL III SYS, 18371 of 27 844.44 100.48%978S00326 0313 IISTI Of IMPOVID ?ICTICA1/IlAliTIG 1I SYS 15 406.41 102.52% delete east be for diff. A/C coifii. 93 kitM1B00401 Al811 10 ilI1110HI IRDIOUCEIR SYS 11101911 161 15.63 71.83%A7B500404 Al ID-461 DIG 1071 R1COIDIR,IISTL Of 163 43.77 $0.291A7R500410 Al DICASS PROVISIOIS IIS7ALIID 161 121.31 81.28%IMB00410 0200 D10953 PROTISIOIS IISTALkID 162 4.00 70.331 delete adnit modA9700325 Al H41AR-84 I 19093, AHI MIRIA Y L Of7k0 264 17.54 75.29%9A7500325 1 00 I1/All-84 I 1903, I TI.W IM I ISTk Or 238 0.25 115.29% delete admat modW97H040 Al 11/111-84 V 79098, AkIRIA7I I337k 07 58 8.28 104.61%910500409 00 9i/11I-ll8(Il TICAI,113?k 0f $6 8.13 19.42% no kit skovu in IDAA100462 Al AVIOIiCS C0880!ICA7IOI III 10117 OPDITI 14 317.25 88.442A77500585 Al IAI/9C-159 RADIO 317 11311 206 68.79 89,74%111500493 Al IIDII VIRIIIG R1CII1II,1ISTL Of 348 6.19 69.20%AA100454 1l AiRCHAIT IODIFICA7IOI/Mil97 19 1266.58 153.402 delete mod cancel1td-atemded, cnder 602111500454 12 AlRICIA NODI7ICATIOM/PDAII 12 222.75 57.46% delete mod cancelled-amended, coder 60%991500454 A Al AVIOlICS, BASIC AIRCRAFT 318111 I OPDATI 23 1119.70 18.49% parts of mod of for diff confige!AH1500454 A A2 AYIOBICS, BASIC AIRCRAFT 318181 & QPDATI 23 27.13 $3.87% delete parts of mod of for diff contigs!AU1500054 A A3 9101103, BASIC 1£11 1197 181111 & UPDATI 23 1131.00 18.492 delete parts of sod of for diff configa'1115D0412 Al ARI-9419P1-153 C03710k PAIIkLSRILC 07 23 7.63 72.581111500311 Al AI1 C0801710111G H137 P0137 711711GS,IOD 0f 421 8.46 80.68% delete non-avionics mod1GA623123 Al 11/0P1-376 19098 7137 BIICI NOD 2 14.00 175.00% delete sopt. eq. mod, over 120%A1W500261 Al AH/151-123 TICAI 375118 17 692.79 62.18%A 118500267 1 A2 Ai/iSO-123 TACIA? 31571 IIS7ALLAIIOI 17 5.13 18.30% delete amedment

1IMA900269 Al RADAR RAIGI 1HFROTIIIII 16 5.29 19.4021 A1B600274 to JAI/AC-159-l,01 IRAISCI1VII 141 1.20 59.282 no kit shon isn TDI1M$00281 Al PILO7/COPILO? CIICILISI PilLI,11P~iCIKIIII Of O6 1.18 79.032 delete YD doenmit aoko Al kit

I A11850281 0292 DIIIRIDICASS SODOBOOY DIYI kI1,1 II1S7AkkATIlO 17 13.89 77.7929803B00203 Al AkR-66(1)l NOD, PROf1DI 133 101081 COITROk 17 1.59 63.082

19111500249 Al IkQ-141 AID IQS-14 P80V151013 30 705.03 60.6022 IM000350 A 11 S71ITIRIII IITIGIAIID ACOUSTIC CORI SYS 42 38.90 147.772 delete over 120%2 A0HOME9 12 13171 Of 01-781 GIII11701 PIKC G87 PR01131013 154 179.13 100.8922 AiMlOOM £ 1357 07LOf01-781 GIIIHAIO ?INC GRP PIOVISIOIS 34 179.47 89.08% delete same mod as A2-diff confit.I991500473 00 AIIROORI 801130 198017 IIDICAITOIR O 8170 100 344 3.19 73,71%6 W500O417 Al Ak-2R i? IM ET -39 01111 STOOTIS £5 IiI.H 8 .73!

iSelection Criteria for SamPle to Calculate Avera~ge Learnin~g Carve

[P TD1 TIT61 Q2 CAC2 L. CURYI ACTICI 11ASON

)19 111500497 &1 INPROVID RIPLACI&ILkIT? O! A/C POD 811190 12 218.00 86.60%'19 TCAS42SOS 00 AN.'ALQ-99 FLuSt MG11 CIOCOIT11L9OD Of 237 15.58 101.8%1

7~ 7C'A$ 4 617 Al A/iAlQ-99 LOW POD 10D01l 800 9 17.44 115.211521 A a I'M4 83 Al Cliff DISPIISI POD.INSTI 0! 53 212.81 798%58M.2 M100472 Al IICOIP O! DiSPINSIIG SIT 48 101.27 77.161023 A0?500389 Al I01,71 IDIITIOIS & FL10 W11110 348 409.93 56.07% delete under 60%023 AA!500390 Al AI/A1Q-7 BUD INC 0f1Fi1l CAPAB!LITT 348 11.13 55.551 delete uader 60%023 iAA506396 Al fill ACiT ILTITUDI IOLD DISIGIAGI W111IIG SYS 54 13.54 53.66% delete uader 601023 A0!500401 A I ADAH WLTHIMI VA1I1IG 11087 £2 6.87 64.681 delete relocatios of warniin light023 111500412 00 11,l1 STS718,10) 0f 49 6.08 14.48% to kit shown i ?In )025 JAA500387 00 AN/AILI39 101OIATIC Cliff! DISPIISII,IISTL 0f 126 0.87 50.00% delete admit sod, under 601, bid data025 LAA500387 Al AIIALI-39 0 IUTOIAC CliAf! DISPIISII,11S¶'L 0! 287 38.84 67.951025 A0!500413 Al A1110l39 CliAff DSPINSING 575718 0178011? 80 11.68 45.64%(26 10!500411 Al OLIC?1OIIC WHIMAI IHPROOTOITS 212 168.11 12.94%026 AA!50041 1 A2 ILICTIOIIC W11111I IRPROTIHIITS 125 3.54 63. 10% delete vast be for diff config than AV026 IA!0041 1 13 ILE?1OPIC KVlfA&I INPIOYIHINTS 1I3 11.4 80.391 delete must be for niff confit than it032 AFF500632 Al IIC 0! IN/ALI-39 COUNTIEIIASOOI DISPIIIIG S77 30 183.73 81.371%016 01!500082 A1 AN/AI-39 1iSTILIATION 62 129.18 60.151001 A11500339 Al IISTOfl 0!A/AL0-39/AN/A0t-39,1110V&L AI/AL129 274 283.05 $4.51% Al for Afe066 AE1500339 A2 1857k 0! AI/ALI-393/ANA?-39 11101AL Ai/il,139 274 9.8.2 88.491 A2 for awe068 A1250027 7 A1 IISTL 0! ALI-39 AID IFI-39 SITS 186 123.1 i1 82.84%1084 018500387 Al ?IIPLI 1111111 Dl!A/DICASS IROTlSIOIS,1ISTL 110 70.54 580810 delete don't know if double commttng, cider1084 IPBSO0387 02A2 IISTALL TRIPLI 1i11111 DIMA PROIISIOIS 51 2.57 85.67% delete don't khow if doable coutbins084 APB500317 0400 DI!ADIIICTIOIAL !lIQ AIALT2IG/1ICOMDIG 168 7.82 68.301 delete don't know if double counting1084 A015003V7 0500 DI!IWDIRICTIOIIL FINQ AIALTGING/IICORIIIG 200 6.30 84.09% delete don't know if double countlnq1084 A01500387 0614 ASK STSTKI,DITA PkOC/CIYTPO DIIICIOI8OIAL 0f 53 2.11 134.29% delete don't know if doable counting1084 APB500381 07A5 ASK STSTIN,IIIAUCID COOLINC,11/12 lAC.IISTI 200 48.55 82.53% delete don't know if double countinm1084 APB500387 CMi ASK SYTS?18DATi PROCICI!PTO DIYICIBIlOYIL 0! 116 3.62 66.122 delete don't know if double countingID84 IPB500443 £1 ASK S!ST18;A/AQA-7A +183 DIMA S!S.N00 0! 228 5.36 115.8811084 TCA512656 11 AN/AQA'7A COITROL PAOIL/IIAII!G CONPOTIH NOD 116 10.35 123.12% delete over 12011102 TCA542479 Al C879/ A C8759A/AA 1111A11D COITOOL CONTIRTI 106 3.43 133.23% delete over 12011104 IPB500388 Al I11POCI H155111 SISTIM.INSTL 0f 23 201.70 58,001 delete Rader 601, bad data1104 IPBS00388 A3 lAIPOOl N155111 STSTIl.IISTL 0! 30 180.33 50.191% delete for diff conflg from Al kit, under 61104 AP150402 Al SN-169/AWG-198 IAIPOOl 5S101,1101 18 11.35 50.001 delete Rader 6001. bad data110( 08500405O 1 Al NAPOClI ISSILI CIPABILITT,QPDITI 147 742.36 101.73%1104 AP0500406 Al STAIDUED131 WING PYL015 H717011? 146 2.50 67.301 delete not aviontcs1104 IPB050406 A2 SIANDAROIZID WING PYLS1015 E FIT2 T 45 2.44 15.37% delete dlff confil from Al kit91104 APB500406 13 SIAMIDAOIIID) KING PY1035 31170071 53 1.89 10.421 delete diff confit from Al kit0104 APBSD0406 A4 STANDIRMIID KING PYLOES 317011?F 85 8.71 72.571 delete diff config from A1 kit9104 AP8500401 A5 STID11D1010 WINO PYIQIS 3179071? 22 1,45 70.331 delete diff config from Al kit9104 M5A42693 Al IARPOON IMTICONFIC?160 ADD CAUTION DICAL 78 1.14 171,96% delete not iviotlca, over 120%0013 AA!50421 Al A711A18,1101107 INC 0! 401815.33 15.24%0013 TGA623873 Al hI/A5-401 1111111111CI 81,AUNI TS ROD 3 2.33 71.1720015 AA1500410 Al DIGITIL SCAN CONYIITII GkOUP,INCOIPOIAT1OI 0! 408 15.62 71.13%0018 MC542548 Al1A11/01-1701OI 0100518 111LM ADDITION 7 5.29 121.95% delete over 120%0018 YCL542751 Al KILIUTl 12508451 11%Q CONTOL HO'D 2 2.00 106,251 delete qt i wnt down?0046 AM100327 A2 LTI-211 OVIGAI/Y1 NAVGAIOI0 SYS 13571 53 57.36 12.80%1019 TCA5425ý3 Al AI/AKO-1iA TICHICICL OBSOLISCINCI PIDOGUN 39 34.26 61.7811025 TC1542521 Al Al/IWG-S CONPOIR IIPANDID 818001Y 18 3.06 112.,11% delete over 120210215 TCA5425212 00 ALIlOG9 DIGI!TAL COMMTI Wit 411451 ROD !7 1,21 143,041 dolcto over 12011047 AP0500408 Al LTI-72 1IS-I1,0,ASI84 30700817 23 712.86 220,84% delete over 1201'

a Se~ectioa Criteria for Sampe to Calculate Iverage Learaial Curve

IIF TDI TITLI 42 CAC2 L. CORTI WICK IOB 115

047 IPB500408 12 017-12 IIS.IL,ASI-84 IITROVI? 148 1144 .2H 89,45% delete dlif coifig from Al kit047 AFKB'04!4 Al LTI-211 OMIIG IA0IGATi01 117 269.25 95.561CiA TCA42726 Al TACA8 IM1 7111 57A1DIIE DIGITAL DISPLAT 4 1.00 100.001 delete got Aveloics'064 7CA42334 Al115 OA Vc P0010 70 AIIBOBI IJIHICID 810th PRO 51 3.29 144.722 delete tot avlonice?, over 120%U2i LB0500345 00 1ISTILLAI101 Of HAl/A-11 TACAI 113 3.57 64.21%031, 1PSC*0421 Al AI!ASA-65 (Y)2 MIOWITIC COMIPSITOR GIP VOP 166 377.35 86.491031 AP000427 12 0351A-6$ (1)2 1AGHIVIC COIPINSATOR GRP AlP 156 40.46 88.231 delete assume for diff confic?031 IP ES00 4 " 13 AI/AAH-6 (1)2 HIGGIVIiC COIPISITOO GRP ADP 95 23.37 817.492 delete uassme for diff comfit?O51 !C1542M8 Al WI/N 148/156B RID11 AlTO IIIQ COITIOL 146 4.11 102.89%051 TC1542588 12 AIAPiN4O/11W RIMA £070 FIIQ COITIOL, 6 3.17 102.111 delete dlif comfig from Al kit01,1 MC542588 81 HAI/ 1~48/156B 8011t ATO IIBQ COITIOL 1 2.44 146.58% delete spares, over 12D106C W7500660 Al WB-159 11LOb SITS 263 50,65 62.551052 AFW500668 Al COCINT TILIVISIOI SIISOIJIiSTk Of 409 126, 15 57.30% delete eider 601062 £70500670 00 TCS S!ST.IK;AVTR,IOD Of 415 108.92 71.451062 TIh542Sý64 Al LI/AV9 ?I C111hB SI! IITI1rhCI NIA 481962 31 3.03 55.041 delete cider 60106E !PA660459 00 SP83C 11,18111 IOOITIIG Or A1/056STS 0 31 1.08 101.41% delete tot it a/c0%1 M$000424 Al IISTALLID IT-7% PABIIILL PIOIISlOIS 227 225.47 93.441085 6W100551 00 1EICOS71IP AITINIAS IICOOP 513 1.37 11.741108 ATJSDO628 00 CT-3R PRIIOS 400 SAIE IISTALLATIOI 18 116.67 5H001 delete eider 60%, bid data130 AAC00636 Al ROD O! CPU-66/A ALITUDI IICODIIG COMPOTIR 325 2.72 64.151081 ICA5V60804 A1 OR014 8OI; RICHS 1181016 BA! 2 3.50 78.00%

Selectiot Criteria for SamPle to Calculate Prerage Leartinzg Curve

Ipt ions :

!data poitts sere deleted there:rhey were probably admsisitrative modifications. Kxaaplea ire OSIP 3-15,1784lAmendmett I corrects a typographical error it the testi&Sraction. In OSIP 28-75, AHC 239, Amendment I corrects the basicalisatlun and adds aerial iumbera for I780 funding. Amendmeat 2serials fot Fy81 funding. These Bode usually involve low ubrs.

The data point mis a kit other than the Al kit (e.g., 12, 13) thatared to be modified for a different configuration of aircraft,to be for the sane aircraft model &And ame modification.

The data point was not for basic equipment, but rather spares, etc.,is tot for an 1' kit,

The calculated learning carve wasn above 1201 or below 601.

The change did not appear to involvc avionics.

The modification had been cancelled, aid replaced by a men TD.

Ihe TD51 data appeared incorrect (eu.3 quantity installed decreased)ty increased bit the total airs Are the wane.

IThe modification wsi not internal to the A/C.

It tis not clear if alI parts of the kit are included.

polats were combined when:

Kit ma In two parts. A1 average of the learning carves was used as

data point.

ýe deletions and combinations yield 10 data polints,idata set includes otly those cases where there were reportedioars In TMS both at the 1986 And 1187 Mua collectoins, andýallatioai had been reported between 1988 and 1987 data collections.

D-4

APPENDIX E

NAVY AIRCRAFT MODIFICATION FUNDING ANDIMPLEMENTATION CYCLE

NAVY AIRCRAFT MODIFICATION FUNDINGAND IMPLEMENTATION CYCLE

It became apparent through previous and current research

that no single data source offers the "whole picture" of a modi-

fication program. Therefore, several data sources were explored

in an effort to obtain all available information on the modifi-

cation programs under consideration. To properly evaluate the

data sources, it is necessary to realize the point in the

modification cycle that they reflect. Therefore, it was

necessary to investigate the funding and implementation cycle for

aircraft modifications.

Information on modification budgeting was obtained through

interviews with NAVAIR and NAMO (Naval Air Maintenance Organi-

zation) personnel, as well as through references to NAVAIR

Instruction 4130.1B "Naval Air Systems Command, Configuration

Management Manual," 23 April 1986 and NAVAIRNOTE 4000 "Submission

of Operational, Safety, and Improvement Program Items for the

Aircraft Modification Budget for Fiscal Year 1988 (Report Symbol

NAVAIR 4000-10)," 3 October 1985.

Modifications to aircraft are accomplished through Engi-

neering Change Proposals (ECPs). An engineering change is any

alteration to the configuration item or item delivered, to be

delivered, or under development, after formal establishment of

its configuration. This study deals only with those cases where

the aircraft has been delivered, and the modification is retrofit

into the aircraft. In-production and out-of-production aircraft

are both considered.

E-1

The NAVAIR configuration manual instructs that prior to

requesting an ECP, both the requestor and the contractor or CFA

(Cognizant Field Activity) should have a thorough understanding

of the ramifications of the contemplated change. Contractors

should be encouraged to submit letters to their local government

representatives, to NAVAIR HQ PMA or the Weapon System Manager

(WSM) summarizing changes they would like to propose. Confer-

ences should be held with contractors at regular intervals to

discuss problems and proposed changes. If, as a result of these

letters or conferences, the feasibility of implementing a

particular change is confirmed, a written request for a formal

ECP will be forwarded from NAVAIR HQ PMA or WSM to the contractor

via the local government representative.

Engineering changes are generally funded through an Opera-

tional Safety Improvement Program (OSIP) vehicle. An OSIP may

include multiple ECPs. The Program Manager is responsible for

preparing an OSIP budget submission that covers the proposed

change(s) to the aircraft. The OSIP budget is reviewed by NAVAIR

for adherence to budget guidelines, formatting, or obvious

funding problems. The budget is returned to the PM for revision,

if required. OSIP items are then included in the submission to

the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) OP-506 each year for

planning, programming, and budgeting for the modification and

modernization of in-service aircraft, weapon systems, and power

plants. The submission is made to the CNO two fiscal years

before funding is expected (e.g., OSIP submissions to receive

FY88 funding were submitted to CNO at the beginning of FY86).

E-2

Modifications to production line aircraft may or may not be

retrofit into aircraft in service. If this is desired, an OSIP

is prepared, reviewed, and if apprcved, budgeted.

Not all proposed changes have the necessary scope, appeal,

sense of urgency, or whatever may be required, to inspire an

OSIP. These may not be acted upon until a modification comes

along that does have the required appeal. This OSIP then becomes

the vehicle to which the minor changes are attached as riders.

OSIPs are seldom "pure", but more likely a mixture of several

modifications which may hardly be related. The OSIP budget

backup descriptions give prominence to the main modification and

may mention the others only in passing, or maybe not at all.

When change or operational, safety, and improvement program

(OSIP) requirements have been included in the Congressional

budget, normally submitted in January, requests for EC1s and CCB

(Change Control Board) submissions should be initiated in

February so that they can be processed by 1 October, when funds

become available for obligation.

There are two different categories of ECPs: solicited and

unsolicited. Solicited ECPs are prepared by the cognizant AIR-05

APM (S&E) or equivalent officer responsible for design engi-

neering. Contract permitting, requests for an ECP to contractors

will include direction to submit a price proposal for the ECP.

Unsolicited ECPs may originate from a contractor, any field

activity or any segment of the fleet, via the appropriate chain

of command. The ECP is obtained from the contractor or NARF, is

sent to AIR-05, and distributed to the PM. Then, prior to a

E-3

formal request for an ECP, all ramifications of the change will

be considered, including funding availability in the time frame

of estimated ECP approval.

Upon receipt of an ECP, the PM will contact the AIR-04

Logistics Manager for the item affected. The contact is intended

to accomplish a preliminary review and evaluation of the merits

of the proposal. If the ECP is acceptable, the PM will issue a

decision memorandum, which will be distributed to all who must

act on or prepare the ECP for CCB consideration.

AIR-05 performs a detailed engineering review to determine

the total impact of the change. The ECP change request is then

hand-carried to affected organizations where effects on weight

and performance guarantees, service life limits, GFE, support

equipment, computer programs and human factors are evaluated and

noted on the request. Following all processing and review at

AIR-05, the request is hand-carried to AIR-04.

The AIR-04 Logistics Manager (LM) is responsible for the

cost, funding, and milestone aspects of the change. The LM is

responsible for obtaining concurrence on availability of funds

for the different costs affected by the ECP request.

The change is presented to the Change Control Board, which

has responsibility to review the change, and is authorized to

approve or dirs.approve Class I engineering changes. The purpose

of the Board is to assure that all aspects of a proposed change

have been thoroughly staffed, implementation actions identified

and positive directions approved. The board consists of

experienced, qualified personnel formally designated by their

E-4

commanders to serve as CCB members. The following list iden-

tifies membership positions for the CCB.

Voting Members: The Chairman (AIR-01) or Co-chairman (AIR-102).

Assistant Commander for Systems andEngineering or specifically designatedrepresentative(s) (AIR-05 and ESA-20).

Assistant Commander for Fleet Support andField Activity Management or a specificallydesignated representative (AIR-04).

Full-Time Associate: NAVAIRHQ Contracts Group (AIR-02) represen-tative.

Members (non-voting): NAVAIRHQ Support Equipment Division (AIR-552) representative.

Aviation Training Systems representative(APC-205).

ASO representative.

NAVAVNLOGCEN representative.

NAVAIRTECHSERVFAC representative.

Associate Members: NAVAIRHQ Safety Officer (AIR-09E)(as appropriate)(non-voting) NAVAIRHQ computer software representative.

NAVAI.RENGCEN representative.

SPCC representative.

Naval Training Equipment Center representa-tive.

Test and evaluation representative.

U.S. Army, Air Force or foreign governmentrepresentative - when applicable.

CCB Secretariat: Recorder Secretary.(non-voting)

Following CCB approval, the ECP is usually contracted to the

prime contractor, and incorporated into the next fiscal year's

buy of production aircraft. After the ECP is designed, the old

F -- _F

and revised drawings for production aircraft become the basis for

creating a Technical Directive (TD) for retrofit. No TD is

required for assembly line production, only for modification of

existing aircraft.

TDs, which detail the specific instructions for a change,

are sent to the installing activity. TD preparation and

validation are usually procured under the non-recurring cost of

the OSIP. There is generally one TD per ECP. The installation

may be performed by the contractor or at the Naval Air Rework

Facility (NARF). Retrofit installation is generally accomplished

with O&MN funding, whereas the kits are procured with APN-5

funding.

Master copies of CCB directives and copies of related

implementing correspondence are retained by AIR-1022 for three

years until retirement to the archive files. Official contract

files are maintained at the NAVAIR HQ Communications and Files

Branch (AIR-7161). CCB data is also tracked on MODPIMS (Modific-

ation Program Implementation Monitoring System). MODPIMS is an

automated system designed to provide a record of modification

program implementation requirements and status.

Installation information is also tracked on the Technical

Directive Status Accounting (TDSA) system, maintained at the

Naval Air Maintenance Organization (previously the Naval Air

Logistics Center) at Patuxent River, Maryland. Installation

manhours are reported from the installing activities. The

frequency of reporting installations varics with installcr---NARFs

E-6

have on-line access to TDSA, and may report installations on a

daily basis, whereas contractors may report only sporadically,

depending on contract stipulations.

E-7

Date post:	15-Nov-2021
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	2 times
Download:	0 times