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GEOSS support for IPCC GEOSS support for IPCC assessmentsassessments
- The GCOS Assessment Cycle - - The GCOS Assessment Cycle -
1 -41 -4 February 2011, WMO, Geneva, SwitzerlandDr Carolin Richter, Director, Global Climate Observing System Secretariat
The Composition and Scope The Composition and Scope of the Main Global Observing Systemsof the Main Global Observing Systems
SYSTEMS OCEAN ATMOSPHERE LAND
GEOSS
GOOS
GCOS
GTOSWIGOS
(GOS AND GAW)
The goal of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is to provide comprehensive information on the total climate system, involving a multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and biological properties and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic, cryospheric and terrestrial processes.
(Annex A to 1992 and 1998 WMO-IOC-UNEP-ICSU MOU)
The Emergence of Human-Induced Climate Change The Emergence of Human-Induced Climate Change as a Global Science and Policy Issueas a Global Science and Policy Issue
UNCHE1972
UNGA1961
GARP1967
WWW1967
GCOS1991
WCRP
WCP1979
IPCC1988
UNFCCC1992
WCED1987
WCC-21990
Copen-hagen2009
WCC-32009
Science
Computers
SpaceAssessmentAssessment
ResearchResearch
ObservationObservation
Policy
WCC-11979
United Nations General Assembly
UN Conference on the Human Environment
Global Atmospheric Research Programme
First World Climate Conference
World Climate Programme
World Climate Research Programme
World Commission on Environment and Development
Second / ThirdWorld Climate Conference
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
World Weather Watch
Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change
Global Climate Observing System
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
Climate- sensitive Sectors
Prediction & Information IPCC
UNFCCC
Adaptation Mitigation
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
Interface
GCOS as building block for aGCOS as building block for a Global Framework for Climate Services Global Framework for Climate Services
The GCOS MissionThe GCOS Mission
Observations made in the past have unequivocally demonstrated that the climate system is warming. Climate observation must be enhanced and continued into the future to enable users to:
Detect further climate change and determine its causesModel and predict the climate systemAssess impacts of climate variability and changeMonitor the effectiveness of policies for mitigating climate changeSupport adaptation to climate changeDevelop climate information servicesPromote sustainable national economic developmentMeet other requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other international conventions and agreements
Continuous Improvement and Assessment Cycle GCOS – an all domain system
What needs to be measured ?
GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)
Priority list of variables to be observed systematically Initiated in 1995 in The GCOS Plan, then called «principal observations» Submitted first time 1998 in 1st Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC, Buenos Aires Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective) High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate change assessments (IPCC) Term « ECV » promoted in 2003, 2nd Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC
Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective)
High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate research (WCRP), climate change assessments (IPCC)
What needs to be measured ? GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)
Atmospheric• Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Pressure, Surface radiation budget,
Wind speed and direction, Water vapour• Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Temperature,
Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties• Composition – Carbon dioxide, Methane and other long-lived greenhouse
gases (N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, SF6 and PFCs), Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors (NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO).
Oceanic• Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state,
Sea ice, Surface Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton.
• Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers.
Terrestrial • River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice
caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture.
Blue/bold = largely space-based red = new in 2010 plan
What needs to be measured ? How to do it ?
Implementation Plan up-date in August 2010
What needs to be measured ? How to do it ?
Climate Monitoring PrinciplesGuidelines for Datasets and Products
Satellite Supplement up-date in January 2011
In-situ data supplement to the Implementation Plan needed.
Workshop to look at gaps in observations and at gaps in basic science, Sydney, Australia, October 2007
ERBERB
PrecipPrecip
WatervapourWatervapour
Workshop on Space based Architecture for Climatein January 2011
By whom / by which means ? By whom / by which means ? “network owners”, i.e.,
National Meteorological Services
National Hydrological Services
Research organizations
Space agencies
Marine / coastal agencies…
How to improve the system ?How to improve the system ? Promote the actions in the GCOS Implementation Plan
Operating a cooperation mechanism
Develop Regional Action Plans
Advocating national coordination
Where are we now ?Where are we now ?Where can you get your data ? www.GOSIC.org (acts as data access service)
ECV WIKIs (GCOS Secretariat, ESA CCI, GOSIC)
Where are we now ?Where are we now ?
Progress Report 2004-2008Progress Report 2009-2013 (?)
Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003Third Report on the Adequacy, (?) 2013-2015
Where are we now ?Where are we now ?
Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003Implementation Plan 2004 and up-date in 2010Progress Report 2004-2008
in support of the UNFCCC
GCOS findings support and contribute also to IPCC, WCRP and Global Framework for Climate Services
Observations for adaptation and impactsObservations for adaptation and impacts
Where are we now ?Where are we now ?
Demonstrate the socio-economic values of Demonstrate the socio-economic values of ECVsECVs
How good is the information which is available to How good is the information which is available to you ?you ?
Is there any information missing ?Is there any information missing ?
What is needed to provide you with adequate What is needed to provide you with adequate information ?information ?
Socio-economic values of climate predictions and projectionsSocio-economic values of climate predictions and projections
Logistics: scheduling of activitiesLogistics: scheduling of activities
Management of quality and quantity; Management of quality and quantity; Protective and regulatory measuresProtective and regulatory measures
Long-term planning for Long-term planning for implementing policiesimplementing policies
Strategic thinking about Strategic thinking about future trends and scenariosfuture trends and scenarios
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Sub-seasonalIntra-SeasonalMJO (30-90 days)up to 6 months
Seasonal, Inter-annual(ENSO, TBO, Monsoon)6 months – 5 yrs
Decadal 10 yrsInter-Decadal (10-20 yrs)Multi-Decadal (> 20 yrs)(PDO,AMO,MOC)
2050 and beyond =Climate Change(Emission Scenarios)
Act
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Agriculture Agriculture and and Farming Farming
FisheriesFisheries SoilSoilForestryForestry Energy Energy industryindustry
HealthHealthBiological Biological diversity / diversity / EcosystemsEcosystems
Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine marine protection protection
Trade Trade and and industry industry
Financial Financial services services industryindustry
Tourism Tourism industryindustry
Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Urban Settlements,Settlements,BuildingBuilding
1 -
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1 -
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Mapping societal sectors into domain based ECVsMapping societal sectors into domain based ECVs Surface: Air temperature Wind speed/direction Water vapour, Pressure, Precipitation, Surface radiation budgetUpper-air: Temperature, Wind speed/direction Water vapour Cloud properties Earth radiation budget Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane (other GHGs) Ozone and Aerosol
River dischargeWater useGround waterLakesSnow coverGlaciers and ice capsIce sheetsPermafrostAlbedoLand cover(inc.veg type) FAPAR, Leaf area index (LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbonFire disturbance Soil moisture
Surface: Sea-surface temperatureSea-surface salinity Sea level Sea state Sea ice Surface current Ocean colourCarbon dioxide part.p.Ocean acidity Sub-surface: Temperature Salinity Current Nutrients Carbon dioxide part p.Ocean acidity OxygenTracersPhytoplankton
Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Settlements,Urban Settlements,BuildingBuilding
SoilSoil
SoilSoil
Financial Financial services services industryindustry
Financial Financial services services industryindustry
Financial Financial services services industryindustry
Tourism Tourism industryindustry
Tourism Tourism industryindustry
Tourism Tourism industryindustry
ForestryForestry
ForestryForestryBiological Biological diversity /diversity /EcosystemsEcosystems
Trade and Trade and industry industry
Trade and Trade and industry industry
Trade and Trade and industry industry
Energy Energy industryindustry
FisheriesFisheries
FisheriesFisheriesAgriculture Agriculture and Farming and Farming
Agriculture Agriculture and Farming and Farming
Agriculture Agriculture and Farming and Farming
Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine protection marine protection
Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine protection marine protection
Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine protection marine protection
Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine protection marine protection
HealthHealth
HealthHealth
HealthHealth
HealthHealth
Energy Energy industryindustry
Energy Energy industryindustry
Biological Biological diversity /diversity /EcosystemsEcosystems
Biological Biological diversity /diversity /EcosystemsEcosystems
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Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Settlements,Urban Settlements,BuildingBuilding
Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Settlements,Urban Settlements,BuildingBuilding
Up-dated Implementation Plan:in brief:
new ECVs, now 50 (before 44 )
reflection on ecosystems (biodiversity)
additional focus on reference and super site networks (measurements of several ECVs at one site for a more comprehensive understanding of the ecosystem)
cost estimation (additional costs and costs for existing systems)
GCOS Progress Report 2004-2008 - Summary
Satellite agencies: improved mission continuity and capability increasingly meeting climate needs
Progress made, but: Many gaps persist, Continued engagement needed for coordinated
implementation and long-term continuity
Summary of progress on all 131 Actions in 2004 GCOS IP
Developed Countries: improved climate observation
capabilities, limited progress in resolving financial
issues related to long-term continuity
Developing Countries: limited (in-situ) progress, with decline
in some regions, capacity building support remains
small in relation to needs
Update 2006 Satellite Supplement to the GCOS IP (GCOS-107)
Update detailed GCOS requirements for FCDRs and ECV products in terms of accuracy, stability, temporal/spatial resolution, calibration and validation needs and opportunities, relevant international working groups.
for Atmosphere, Ocean, Land and Cross-Cutting actions.
Expert Meeting, January 10 – 12, 2011, Geneva improvements on most of the ECVs, extra sections, e.g., GHGs, precursors, « pressure » emerges now also as space-
based observed ECV. Open for public review, March 2011 Finalising draft, 2nd Qrt 2011.
2. Satellite Supplement – up-date in January 2011
Ensuring Quality and Acceptance of ECV Datasets
(GCOS Guideline for generation of ECV datasets and products, May 2010)
When generating climate datasets and ECV products, particular attention to:
1. Full description of all steps in the generation of datasets and products2. Information on publications in peer-reviewed journals related to datasets and products3. Statement of expected accuracy, stability and resolution (time, space) of the product4. Arrangements for access to the datasets, products and all documentation5. Version management of datasets and products, particularly in connection with improved
algorithms and reprocessing6. Particular attention to long-term stability and homogeneity of the product7. Full application of all appropriate calibration/validation activities that would enhance
product quality8. Global coverage where appropriate9. Timeliness of data release to the user community to enable monitoring activities 10. Facility for user feedback11. Application of a quantitative maturity index if possible12. Summary documenting the extent to which this guideline has been followed.
Responds to increasing demand by producers to ensure climate quality / meeting GCOS requirements
Ensure transparency (“Say what you do”)
Sub
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Planting/HarvestingUse of Pesticides/Fertiliser
Crop type&sequenceStocking ratesHerd management
CropIndustry, breeding
Land use
Logistics: scheduling of activties
Management
Long-term Planning
Strategic Thinking on how to adapt the relevant policies
Choose Fishing area&method
Plan to restock fish,&fishing methods
Prevention of accidents, injuries or allergies, heat stress, circulation disorders….
Develop vaccines; Implement bio-monitoring systems
Foster research; Connect to sector of infrastructure (green spaces, air corridors in cities..),
Prevention of accidents and damages
Revision of standards for buildings/infrastructure;Make provisions to repair roads and railways.
Construction &Planning policies
Adapt toof standards for buildings/infrastructure; Investigate into new routes.
Prevention on floods, droughts, storm surges
Drinking&cooling water; Possibility of shipping
Drinking water quality, protection of coastal lines&waterways
Sustained soil quality
Adaption of species; migration; extinction
Protect&conservehabitats; DesignLandscapes
Reduce pollutants and nutrients (initiate legislation)
Harvesting/Planting; Prevention of fireDrought, Pest outbreaks
Health of forestTimber harvest
Protection of human settlement and infrastructureTimber yields
Compositions& conversion;use of timber
Prevention of mud slides, erosion
Agriculture Agriculture and and Farming Farming
FisheriesFisheries SoilSoilForestryForestry Energy Energy industryindustry
HealthHealthBiological Biological diversity / diversity / EcosystemsEcosystems
Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine marine protection protection
Trade Trade and and industry industry
Financial Financial services services industryindustry
Tourism Tourism industryindustry
Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Urban Settlements,Settlements,BuildingBuilding
Change Fishing area&method
Reproductivity capacity of stocks
Humus formationCarbon sequestration
Water reservesCoastal linesShipping ways
Travel management
Provision of labour&infrastructure
Regional shifts
Purchasing&stockpolicies
Crisis precautions;Renewable energy;Alternative energy sources
Generation of energy;New/modify regulations
Lead of adequate energy supply
Lead of adequate personnel&material (resources)
Take precautions by plant safety managers; new legal regulations
Design plants to withstand extreme weather
Innovations in technology
Financial policies
Risk assessment; new business strategies
Revise framework conditions; new/modify business modles
Value of Observations (ECVs) for societal sectorsValue of Observations (ECVs) for societal sectors
From Observations to Information to ServicesExample of a societal sector: Agriculture Agriculture and Farming and Farming
ECVPrecipitation
ECV
Air temperature
Model for Agrometeorology
Start of vegetation period Start of flowering of winter rapeRipeness of maize Vernalization (low temp. stimulus)
Number of days of ice, frost, summer, heat, tropical days, tropical nights
Planting dateSowing dateYield changes
Climate Observations(annual means, monthly means)
Model data; phenological &meteorologicalobservations
Example output parameter:
Research