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GEOSS support for IPCC GEOSS support for IPCC assessments assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 1 -4 February 2011, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland Dr Carolin Richter, Director, Global Climate Observing System Secretariat
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Page 1: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

GEOSS support for IPCC GEOSS support for IPCC assessmentsassessments

- The GCOS Assessment Cycle - - The GCOS Assessment Cycle -

1 -41 -4 February 2011, WMO, Geneva, SwitzerlandDr Carolin Richter, Director, Global Climate Observing System Secretariat

Page 2: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

The Composition and Scope The Composition and Scope of the Main Global Observing Systemsof the Main Global Observing Systems

SYSTEMS OCEAN ATMOSPHERE LAND

GEOSS

GOOS

GCOS

GTOSWIGOS

(GOS AND GAW)

Page 3: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

The goal of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is to provide comprehensive information on the total climate system, involving a multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and biological properties and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic, cryospheric and terrestrial processes.

(Annex A to 1992 and 1998 WMO-IOC-UNEP-ICSU MOU)

Page 4: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

The Emergence of Human-Induced Climate Change The Emergence of Human-Induced Climate Change as a Global Science and Policy Issueas a Global Science and Policy Issue

UNCHE1972

UNGA1961

GARP1967

WWW1967

GCOS1991

WCRP

WCP1979

IPCC1988

UNFCCC1992

WCED1987

WCC-21990

Copen-hagen2009

WCC-32009

Science

Computers

SpaceAssessmentAssessment

ResearchResearch

ObservationObservation

Policy

WCC-11979

United Nations General Assembly

UN Conference on the Human Environment

Global Atmospheric Research Programme

First World Climate Conference

World Climate Programme

World Climate Research Programme

World Commission on Environment and Development

Second / ThirdWorld Climate Conference

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

World Weather Watch

Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change

Global Climate Observing System

Page 5: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

Climate- sensitive Sectors

Prediction & Information IPCC

UNFCCC

Adaptation Mitigation

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

Interface

GCOS as building block for aGCOS as building block for a Global Framework for Climate Services Global Framework for Climate Services

Page 6: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

The GCOS MissionThe GCOS Mission

Observations made in the past have unequivocally demonstrated that the climate system is warming. Climate observation must be enhanced and continued into the future to enable users to:

Detect further climate change and determine its causesModel and predict the climate systemAssess impacts of climate variability and changeMonitor the effectiveness of policies for mitigating climate changeSupport adaptation to climate changeDevelop climate information servicesPromote sustainable national economic developmentMeet other requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other international conventions and agreements

Page 7: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Continuous Improvement and Assessment Cycle GCOS – an all domain system

Page 8: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

What needs to be measured ?

GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)

Priority list of variables to be observed systematically Initiated in 1995 in The GCOS Plan, then called «principal observations»  Submitted first time 1998 in 1st Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC, Buenos Aires Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective) High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate change assessments (IPCC) Term « ECV » promoted in 2003, 2nd Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC

Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective)

High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate research (WCRP), climate change assessments (IPCC)

Page 9: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

What needs to be measured ? GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)

Atmospheric• Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Pressure, Surface radiation budget,

Wind speed and direction, Water vapour• Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Temperature,

Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties• Composition – Carbon dioxide, Methane and other long-lived greenhouse

gases (N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, SF6 and PFCs), Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors (NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO).

Oceanic• Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state,

Sea ice, Surface Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton.

• Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers.

Terrestrial • River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice

caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture.

Blue/bold = largely space-based red = new in 2010 plan

Page 10: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

What needs to be measured ? How to do it ?

Implementation Plan up-date in August 2010

Page 11: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

What needs to be measured ? How to do it ?

Climate Monitoring PrinciplesGuidelines for Datasets and Products

Satellite Supplement up-date in January 2011

In-situ data supplement to the Implementation Plan needed.

Page 12: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Workshop to look at gaps in observations and at gaps in basic science, Sydney, Australia, October 2007

ERBERB

PrecipPrecip

WatervapourWatervapour

Workshop on Space based Architecture for Climatein January 2011

Page 13: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

By whom / by which means ? By whom / by which means ? “network owners”, i.e.,

National Meteorological Services

National Hydrological Services

Research organizations

Space agencies

Marine / coastal agencies…

How to improve the system ?How to improve the system ? Promote the actions in the GCOS Implementation Plan

Operating a cooperation mechanism

Develop Regional Action Plans

Advocating national coordination

Page 14: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Where are we now ?Where are we now ?Where can you get your data ? www.GOSIC.org (acts as data access service)

ECV WIKIs (GCOS Secretariat, ESA CCI, GOSIC)

Page 15: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Where are we now ?Where are we now ?

Progress Report 2004-2008Progress Report 2009-2013 (?)

Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003Third Report on the Adequacy, (?) 2013-2015

Page 16: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Where are we now ?Where are we now ?

Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003Implementation Plan 2004 and up-date in 2010Progress Report 2004-2008

in support of the UNFCCC

GCOS findings support and contribute also to IPCC, WCRP and Global Framework for Climate Services

Observations for adaptation and impactsObservations for adaptation and impacts

Page 17: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Where are we now ?Where are we now ?

Demonstrate the socio-economic values of Demonstrate the socio-economic values of ECVsECVs

How good is the information which is available to How good is the information which is available to you ?you ?

Is there any information missing ?Is there any information missing ?

What is needed to provide you with adequate What is needed to provide you with adequate information ?information ?

Page 18: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Socio-economic values of climate predictions and projectionsSocio-economic values of climate predictions and projections

Logistics: scheduling of activitiesLogistics: scheduling of activities

Management of quality and quantity; Management of quality and quantity; Protective and regulatory measuresProtective and regulatory measures

Long-term planning for Long-term planning for implementing policiesimplementing policies

Strategic thinking about Strategic thinking about future trends and scenariosfuture trends and scenarios

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Sub-seasonalIntra-SeasonalMJO (30-90 days)up to 6 months

Seasonal, Inter-annual(ENSO, TBO, Monsoon)6 months – 5 yrs

Decadal 10 yrsInter-Decadal (10-20 yrs)Multi-Decadal (> 20 yrs)(PDO,AMO,MOC)

2050 and beyond =Climate Change(Emission Scenarios)

Act

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Agriculture Agriculture and and Farming Farming

FisheriesFisheries SoilSoilForestryForestry Energy Energy industryindustry

HealthHealthBiological Biological diversity / diversity / EcosystemsEcosystems

Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine marine protection protection

Trade Trade and and industry industry

Financial Financial services services industryindustry

Tourism Tourism industryindustry

Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Urban Settlements,Settlements,BuildingBuilding

1 -

6 m

on

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1 -

6 m

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Page 19: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Mapping societal sectors into domain based ECVsMapping societal sectors into domain based ECVs Surface: Air temperature Wind speed/direction Water vapour, Pressure, Precipitation, Surface radiation budgetUpper-air: Temperature, Wind speed/direction Water vapour Cloud properties Earth radiation budget Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane (other GHGs) Ozone and Aerosol

River dischargeWater useGround waterLakesSnow coverGlaciers and ice capsIce sheetsPermafrostAlbedoLand cover(inc.veg type) FAPAR, Leaf area index (LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbonFire disturbance Soil moisture

Surface: Sea-surface temperatureSea-surface salinity Sea level Sea state Sea ice Surface current Ocean colourCarbon dioxide part.p.Ocean acidity Sub-surface: Temperature Salinity Current Nutrients Carbon dioxide part p.Ocean acidity OxygenTracersPhytoplankton

Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Settlements,Urban Settlements,BuildingBuilding

SoilSoil

SoilSoil

Financial Financial services services industryindustry

Financial Financial services services industryindustry

Financial Financial services services industryindustry

Tourism Tourism industryindustry

Tourism Tourism industryindustry

Tourism Tourism industryindustry

ForestryForestry

ForestryForestryBiological Biological diversity /diversity /EcosystemsEcosystems

Trade and Trade and industry industry

Trade and Trade and industry industry

Trade and Trade and industry industry

Energy Energy industryindustry

FisheriesFisheries

FisheriesFisheriesAgriculture Agriculture and Farming and Farming

Agriculture Agriculture and Farming and Farming

Agriculture Agriculture and Farming and Farming

Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine protection marine protection

Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine protection marine protection

Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine protection marine protection

Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine protection marine protection

HealthHealth

HealthHealth

HealthHealth

HealthHealth

Energy Energy industryindustry

Energy Energy industryindustry

Biological Biological diversity /diversity /EcosystemsEcosystems

Biological Biological diversity /diversity /EcosystemsEcosystems

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Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Settlements,Urban Settlements,BuildingBuilding

Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Settlements,Urban Settlements,BuildingBuilding

Page 20: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,
Page 21: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,
Page 22: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,
Page 23: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Up-dated Implementation Plan:in brief:

new ECVs, now 50 (before 44 )

reflection on ecosystems (biodiversity)

additional focus on reference and super site networks (measurements of several ECVs at one site for a more comprehensive understanding of the ecosystem)

cost estimation (additional costs and costs for existing systems)

Page 24: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

GCOS Progress Report 2004-2008 - Summary

Satellite agencies: improved mission continuity and capability increasingly meeting climate needs

Progress made, but: Many gaps persist, Continued engagement needed for coordinated

implementation and long-term continuity

Summary of progress on all 131 Actions in 2004 GCOS IP

Developed Countries: improved climate observation

capabilities, limited progress in resolving financial

issues related to long-term continuity

Developing Countries: limited (in-situ) progress, with decline

in some regions, capacity building support remains

small in relation to needs

Page 25: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Update 2006 Satellite Supplement to the GCOS IP (GCOS-107)

Update detailed GCOS requirements for FCDRs and ECV products in terms of accuracy, stability, temporal/spatial resolution, calibration and validation needs and opportunities, relevant international working groups.

for Atmosphere, Ocean, Land and Cross-Cutting actions.

Expert Meeting, January 10 – 12, 2011, Geneva improvements on most of the ECVs, extra sections, e.g., GHGs, precursors, « pressure » emerges now also as space-

based observed ECV. Open for public review, March 2011 Finalising draft, 2nd Qrt 2011.

2. Satellite Supplement – up-date in January 2011

Page 26: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

Ensuring Quality and Acceptance of ECV Datasets

(GCOS Guideline for generation of ECV datasets and products, May 2010)

When generating climate datasets and ECV products, particular attention to:

1. Full description of all steps in the generation of datasets and products2. Information on publications in peer-reviewed journals related to datasets and products3. Statement of expected accuracy, stability and resolution (time, space) of the product4. Arrangements for access to the datasets, products and all documentation5. Version management of datasets and products, particularly in connection with improved

algorithms and reprocessing6. Particular attention to long-term stability and homogeneity of the product7. Full application of all appropriate calibration/validation activities that would enhance

product quality8. Global coverage where appropriate9. Timeliness of data release to the user community to enable monitoring activities 10. Facility for user feedback11. Application of a quantitative maturity index if possible12. Summary documenting the extent to which this guideline has been followed.

Responds to increasing demand by producers to ensure climate quality / meeting GCOS requirements

Ensure transparency (“Say what you do”)

Page 27: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

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Planting/HarvestingUse of Pesticides/Fertiliser

Crop type&sequenceStocking ratesHerd management

CropIndustry, breeding

Land use

Logistics: scheduling of activties

Management

Long-term Planning

Strategic Thinking on how to adapt the relevant policies

Choose Fishing area&method

Plan to restock fish,&fishing methods

Prevention of accidents, injuries or allergies, heat stress, circulation disorders….

Develop vaccines; Implement bio-monitoring systems

Foster research; Connect to sector of infrastructure (green spaces, air corridors in cities..),

Prevention of accidents and damages

Revision of standards for buildings/infrastructure;Make provisions to repair roads and railways.

Construction &Planning policies

Adapt toof standards for buildings/infrastructure; Investigate into new routes.

Prevention on floods, droughts, storm surges

Drinking&cooling water; Possibility of shipping

Drinking water quality, protection of coastal lines&waterways

Sustained soil quality

Adaption of species; migration; extinction

Protect&conservehabitats; DesignLandscapes

Reduce pollutants and nutrients (initiate legislation)

Harvesting/Planting; Prevention of fireDrought, Pest outbreaks

Health of forestTimber harvest

Protection of human settlement and infrastructureTimber yields

Compositions& conversion;use of timber

Prevention of mud slides, erosion

Agriculture Agriculture and and Farming Farming

FisheriesFisheries SoilSoilForestryForestry Energy Energy industryindustry

HealthHealthBiological Biological diversity / diversity / EcosystemsEcosystems

Water regime, Water regime, coastal and coastal and marine marine protection protection

Trade Trade and and industry industry

Financial Financial services services industryindustry

Tourism Tourism industryindustry

Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Transport, Transport, Urban Urban Settlements,Settlements,BuildingBuilding

Change Fishing area&method

Reproductivity capacity of stocks

Humus formationCarbon sequestration

Water reservesCoastal linesShipping ways

Travel management

Provision of labour&infrastructure

Regional shifts

Purchasing&stockpolicies

Crisis precautions;Renewable energy;Alternative energy sources

Generation of energy;New/modify regulations

Lead of adequate energy supply

Lead of adequate personnel&material (resources)

Take precautions by plant safety managers; new legal regulations

Design plants to withstand extreme weather

Innovations in technology

Financial policies

Risk assessment; new business strategies

Revise framework conditions; new/modify business modles

Value of Observations (ECVs) for societal sectorsValue of Observations (ECVs) for societal sectors

Page 28: GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 GEOSS support for IPCC assessments - The GCOS Assessment Cycle - 1 -4 February 2011,

From Observations to Information to ServicesExample of a societal sector: Agriculture Agriculture and Farming and Farming

ECVPrecipitation

ECV

Air temperature

Model for Agrometeorology

Start of vegetation period Start of flowering of winter rapeRipeness of maize Vernalization (low temp. stimulus)

Number of days of ice, frost, summer, heat, tropical days, tropical nights

Planting dateSowing dateYield changes

Climate Observations(annual means, monthly means)

Model data; phenological &meteorologicalobservations

Example output parameter:

Research


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