Geostrategia energetică în regiunea Sud-Est Europeana

PIAŢA PETROLULUI20 aprilie 2004

Marriott Grand Hotel Bucureşti

Dr. Ionuţ Purica

The Region in the international context

Gas and Oil in Central Europe

Gas and Oil in South East Europe

Caspian to Mediterranean pipelines

Oil and Gas in Iraq and the Gulf

Druzhba

Druzhba

Adria

AWP

RDO

SEPL

IKL

TenghizNovorossiisk

Baku

Supsa

Urals

Odessa

Ceyhan

Constantza

Burgas

Trieste

Alexandropoulos

TAL

Vlora

5-32.5

5.75 - 28 - 6736

5

6 -10

Net Export in 2010 (MT/A) (source IEA)

Kazakhstan - 48

Azerbaijan - 42.6

Turkmenistan - 2.5

Oil transport posibilities

Caspian Sea Region Oil Production and Exports 

(thousand bbl/d)  

Net Exports (1997) Possible Exports (2010)  Azerbaijan 54.8 1000-1500 Kazakhstan 310.9 2000 Turkmenistan 39.2 50 Uzbekistan 23.8 50 Total 428.7 3100-3600

(source US-EIA)

Comparative prices for oil transport

Route via Price [$/bbl]

Constanta – Trieste land 1.88 (incl. port charges 0.36$/bbl)

Black Sea – Trieste sea 0.80-1.2

Druzhba – Adria land cca. 3.2 (0.72$/t/100km, 2400km)

All price values are estimated and for orientation (source CTPL HLP-Parsons study)

Bosporus Bypass Oil Export Routes(for Oil Transiting the Black Sea)

Name/Location

Route

Crude Capacity

Length Investment Status

Burgas and Trans-Balkan (AMBO) lines

Burgas (Bulgaria) - Alexandroupolis (Greece) or Trans-Balkan line Burgas - Vlore (Albania)  

600,000-800,000 bbl/d

200 miles (if to Alexandroupolis)

$800 million (if to Alexandroupolis)

Initial agreement 1997 Bulgaria, Greece, Russia for Burgas line.AMBO (Albanian-Macedonian-Bulgarian Oil) also proposed a Trans-Balkan line

South-East European Line (SEEL)

Constanta(Romania) - Trieste (Italy)

660,000 bbl/d

1000 miles $971 million ENI (Italy) signed protocol with Petrom (state oil firm of Romania) to transport Kazakh oil. Protocol ratified if signed by other republics along the route

Ukraine Odessa to Brody 600,000-800,000 bbl/d

415 miles $400 million to complete pipeline

Construction began Pivdenny (Yuzhnyi) oil terminal near Odessa; pipeline complete

 

No sea access only land supply

Both sea access and land supply

No land supply only access to sea

The forces driving change in the business environment

Information technology

Increasedcompetition

Fluctuating oilprices

Rapid technologychanges

Environmentalawareness

Deregulation

Privatisation

Disintegration

Breakdown ofnational frontiers

Government A(weak credit)

Government B(weak credit)

Government C(adequate credit)

Intergovernmental agreement

Joint Venture

Offtakers (weak state enterprises)

Offtakers (market)

Project lenders

IFI (e.g. World Bank, EBRD, etc.) , Guarantors (e.g. Sace, Hermes, EximBanks, AIG, etc)

Indemnity guarantee CIndemnity

guarantee A, B

Guarantee A, B state enterprise

payment

Loan

Transit agreement

Guarantee Production/supply sharing A & transit agreement A, B, C

International border International border

Supply (market)

Production/supply sharing agreement

Constantza (Black Sea) to Adriatic Sea Pipeline Project(possible project / guarantee structure)

 

Government A(weak credit)

Government B(weak credit)

Government C(adequate credit)

Intergovernmental agreement

TRACECA and INOGATE treaties are paving the way

Countries passed by the pipe are politically stable and have started EU integration negotiations, moreover they are NATO members or partners

Discussions are in course on a political Memorandum among the interested countries in CTPL drafted with EU support

Serbian market is joining in

Region Level

Joint Venture

Offtakers (weak state enterprises)

Offtakers (market)

Transit agreement

Supply (market)

Production/supply sharing agreement

Existing market in Europe and competitive transmission tariffsExisting sources in the Caspian regionProven TechnologyExperienced Sponsors/Operators

Market Level

Project lenders

Guarantee A, B state enterprise

payment

Loan

Appropriate Financial Structure and Security (30/70debt/equity with well defined local participation)Experienced Sponsors/ManagersTotal Project Cost of US$971 MRisk coverage in all stages

Financial Level

IFI (e.g. World Bank, EBRD, etc.) , Guarantors (e.g. Sace, Hermes, EximBanks, AIG, etc)

Indemnity guarantee CIndemnity

guarantee A, B

Guarantee Production/supply sharing A & transit agreement A, B, C

Project Completion RiskOperational and Performance Risks* Technical Performance* Operational ManagementMarket and Price RiskCountry/Region Risk* Foreign Exchange Risk* Currency Convertibility Risk* Political Risk* Force Majeure

Guarantees Level

Dr.ing.ec. Ionut PURICA

+40745 167781

ipurica@pcnet.ro

ipurica@emcrom.ro