Date post: | 05-Jul-2015 |
Category: |
Education |
Upload: | international-food-policy-research-institute-ifpri |
View: | 387 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Food Security Futures Conference, CGIAR-FAO, Dublin, Ireland, 10-11 April
Food Security Futures: some comments from a Brazilian perspective
Geraldo B. Martha Jr.
Agricultural Productivity Scenarios and Links to Climate Change Models
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
1990
19
91 19
92 19
93 19
94
1995
19
96 19
97 19
98 19
99 20
00 20
01 20
02 20
03 20
04
2005
20
06 20
07 20
08 20
09 20
10
2011
Ann
ual r
eal f
ood
pric
e (2
002-
2004
=100
)
Food Price Index Meat Price Index Dairy Price Index Cereals Price Index Oils Price Index Sugar Price Index Technology adoption versus
relative prices;
Relative prices versus land-competition;
Relative prices versus food supply, price volatility and (exploitable) yield gaps;
FAO (2011)
G.B.Martha, work in progress, data from IBGE.
Technology adoption vs. price effects
IBGE database, Martha, Jr. (2012).
Technology adoption vs. price effects
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
Rice Beans Corn Soybean Wheat
Yiel
d (k
g/ha
)
2010 avg. Top Producers Research
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
300,00
350,00
R+B+C+S+W
Mill
ion
tons
2010, avg. Top Producers Research
Increase
Top prod.: 36%
Research: 134%
Crop-land area constant, 2010 values
Agriculture production potential in Brazil
Martha Jr. (2012).
Technology adoption vs. novel systems effects
0-10 cm 0-30 0-50 cm
Technology adoption vs. Climate Change effects
Sousa et al., 1996.
Stocking rate LWG Productivity
hd/ha (kg/hd) (kg PV/ha/yr)
0,4 100 40
0,7 120 84
1,1 135 149
1,6 160 256
Land-saving effect
(ha spared/ha recovered)
-
1,1
2,7
5,4
G.B.Martha Jr. (work in progress).
Technology adoption vs. land-saving effects
Metrics, Prices, and Short vs. Long-term Trends
MCT (2010).
Economist (2012 and 2013).
Embrapa's R&D Efforts
Agricultural R&D investiments - the case of Brazilian Embrapa
Martha Jr. & Lopes (2013), data from IBGE and Embrapa.
Around 90% of the ag. research effort in Brazil is public;
From 50% to 60% of Brazilian public investment in agricultural R&D goes to Embrapa;
Agricultural Development in a More Broad Context
1) Considering specific regional characteristics and resource endowments and possibilities to foster an inclusive low-carbon emission agriculture strategy: a) What is the cost of this new technology and its economic return / cash flow in comparison with technologies that are already in use in farms?
b) What is the new technology’s opportunity cost considering other eligible agricultural activities in the region? How robust is the new technology’s comparative economic performance considering a range of relative prices and terms of trade?
c) If this new technology is well implemented in farms, what is the potential to generate strong backward and forward linkages and thus foster virtuous cycles of development in rural areas?
Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-Carbon Agricultural Technologies
Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).
1) Considering specific regional characteristics and resource endowments and possibilities to foster an inclusive low-carbon emission agriculture strategy: d) What are the major changes required in infrastructure and supply chain arrangements relative to a business as usual scenario (and their associated timeline)?
e) How dependent on (distorting vs. non-distorting) incentives is such strategy and for how long?
Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-Carbon Agricultural Technologies
Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).
2) What is needed to better integrate poor farmers to the value of chain and to increase their competitiveness in a low-carbon emission agriculture era? What are the implications for their well-being and for the rural-to-urban migration process?
Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-Carbon Agricultural Technologies
3) How do distortions to agricultural prices ultimately affect the adoption of low-carbon emission technologies in the agricultural sector in developed, developing and poor countries or in different regions inside a given country? 4) How can a widespread adoption of low carbon emission technologies in agriculture eventually affect the volatility of food supply and prices, and what are their regional welfare impacts? How factors of production in the economy will adjust to such a stimulus?
Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).
Embrapa's Strategic Intelligence System
"Targeting possible futures, their challenges, solutions and opportunities for the technological development of
Brazilian Agriculture"
The solely form of forecasting the future is to build it (Antonio Delfim Netto, May 2012)
Thank You !