Gerd Leonhard Future Of Radio 2007

Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Gerd LeonhardPresentation at RadioDays 2007

Future or no future for radio?

New book out next week:Free at

www.endofcontrol.com

www.mediafuturist.com

1Tuesday, March 4, 2008

http://www.mediafuturist.com


http://www.endofcontrol.com




Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Radio today: competition coming from all sides

Ipod

iphone

Car Audio Systems

Mobile Music

Wimax Music

Podcasts

Social Networks and Blogs

Satellite Radio

What’s good about all this: Choice

What’s bad about all this: The Paradox of Choice





SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Across the world, 1.1 Billion People use the Internet, 1.4

Billion watch TV, and 2.2 Billion use Mobile Phones

So HOW will RADIO be consumed in the Future, and what is its value proposition (both for music and for audio)





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84The Net Generation:

I program my media - it does not program me!





SMS +41 79 79 353 84The key drivers of Change• Broadband

• Mobility

• Social Networks

• Blogs and User Generated Content (UGC)

• Total Fragmentation of the Audiences

• Globalization (and localization)

• Convergence





SMS +41 79 79 353 84



SMS +41 79 79 353 84





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

W e a r e h e a d i n g i n t o a a c c e l e r a t i n g c o n v e r g e n c e o f A u d i o a n d V i d e o .





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84A few shocking facts from the U.S.





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In the US: tuning out of Radio is guaranteed





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Radio ad revenues are not going away - they just won’t be growing.





and then comes...





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‘How’ will matter less and less. ‘What’ will matter more and more13Tuesday, March 4, 2008




Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Remember when Radio had a

Monopoly in Attention?





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three





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where you simply put all the stations that you

want to listen to.A canvas that you can always have with you (see Netvibes, iGoogle), no matter

how you receive the content.

Radio fills the need to filter Choice.





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Consumers are, now more than ever before, seeking consolidated, trustworthy content, recognition and community - even more when it comes to mobile and Internet entertainment

This is still the biggest opportunity in Radio.





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

New technologies often disrupt ecosystems but always make the market bigger





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• Music formats will be either open or 100% compatible - DRM is the past

• Music as a service will become a default setting, and the ‘sell units’ paradigm is ending

• Creation of new revenue flows will be more important than controlling distribution

• The People formerly known as Consumers are gaining more power by the minute

• Music licensing will be drastically simplified

The De-Walling:

Isn’t Radio the definition of Music as a Service?





Thanks to the Net Generation & the Digital Natives,

Social Networks on the Internet are the

Next Radio20Tuesday, March 4, 2008




Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S.





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

T h e P e o p l e f o r m e r l y

k n o w n a s L i s t e n e r s

( a k a C o n s u m e r s )





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

T h e M e d i u m f o r m e r l y

k n o w n a s R a d i o





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

S o o n , m o s t o f t h e m w i l l

g e t m o s t o f t h e i r ‘ R a d i o ’

v i a a n y d i g i t a l n e t w o r k

- t h e I n t e r n e t d o m i n a t e s24Tuesday, March 4, 2008




Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Why is your station not broadcasting on Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut?



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In all Media, Push is becoming Pull

Because





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84Just different words for the same thing...

BroadcastingStreamingPublic PerformanceListening

Tubesocking Playlisting Streamripping Podcatching Buffering Caching Renting

DownloadCopyDigital Phonographic Delivery (DPD)



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The most important development in the Context of Radio Licensing is The Flat Rate for Digital Music





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The Net Generation will not continue to pay a public Radio or TV License without archiving, time-shifting, place-shifting and device shifting - i.e. with build-in DELIVERY options

And for Public Radio





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84The Reality is:

• The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine• Digital Radio IS Distribution• From the listeners standpoint, Digital Radio

MUST offer time / place / device shifting

which is... Distribution• Case in point: RSS and the Google Reader





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

The bottom line:In media, Friction is now

Fiction31Tuesday, March 4, 2008




Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Very soon - listening IS receiving





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Radio is FreeRecords / CDs are not

If the Internet is the New Radio -

are Copies are ‘free’ ?

A Logic Challenge





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84EU Radio in 3-5 years

• 100% digital (in all its variations), and 50% converged with the Net

• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way• Video and Audio converge• Community features are a standard• Geography fades, borders become soft• License is both questioned and then expanded

(based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)• Advertising2.0 emerges• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84EU Radio in 10 years

• The term “Radio” simply refers to ‘curated programming’

• Public radio is the #1 curator of a huge digital library

• The ‘Copy versus Performance’ (listen versus own) distinction is over

• Everything is on demand - few or nothing remains scheduled





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84The trigger factors:

• Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere• WiBro in the car• 4G Wireless cell phone networks fully

deployed• Radios with WLAN chips• Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)• Mobile computing devices that talk

effortlessly to each other• Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control

How long?





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84What is good about Radio?

• Free or feels like free• Ubiquitous• Easy to use for anyone• Does not require engagement• Trusted, professional curators• Known brands• Local context• Strong tradition• Great way to discover music

What is good about Audio on the Internet?

****** *******

*********

*** **37Tuesday, March 4, 2008


Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Radio’s Future is on the Internet, with the Net Generation, and with fully integrated Content Delivery





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84The 5 Inevitables

1.Radio must support time-shifting

2.Radio must support space-shifting

3.Radio must support sharing

4.Radio must support interactivity

5.Radio must support community





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84This is where the growth is



Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

• Getting (and keeping) attention• Trust• Influence• Reputation

The new currencies in Media





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And advertising follows the trends of mass-personalizationSouce: Booz Hamilton Report





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F r o m I m p r e s s i o n t o R e l e v a n c e





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84Integrate the audience! Provide a platform!

The NYT went ‘open access’ 3 days ago - after maintaining a wall for the past 5 years (incl. RSS)





Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

You must take Radio’s walls down, too:• Archive Access• Web-based access on all platforms• Radio as social medium

Don’t hide behind any wall.




Gerd Leonhard, Music & Media Futurist

Changes in the content industries

Content 1.0 Content 2.0Distribution Attention

Shelf Space Mind-share

Mass Marketing Monolog

Niche Marketing Dialog

Control Influence & Reputation

Control Attention & Trust



Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84So if I ran the circus, I would...• Widgetize my radio stations (syndicate radio shows

via embedded players), turn them into channels on social networks

• Turn my listeners into active network members, roll out Engagement programs

• Offer archives of everything, no matter what• Mobilize my radio station• Demand extended licensing grants, and one-stop

licensing• Lobby for a digital music flat rate• Push converged service: audio, video, text• Build my brand and become an EXPERIENCE






Thanks for listening

New book out next week:Free at

www.endofcontrol.com

www.mediafuturist.com








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