Get out your ISN!

You will be able to understand the basic ideas of probability including outcomes, events, and sample spaces.

Today’s Objectives:

Warm UpTape this into your Warm Up

Section and use the deck

to answer.

WWK & TOCChoose a colored pencil and ruler—draw a horizontal line underneath… • the last TOC entry (27-28) • the last WWK entry (Standard

Deviation)

TOCWWK29-30 Intro to Probability

Probability—the chance of an event occurring;

Probability Experiment—A chance process that leads to well-defined results called outcomes.

Outcome—The result of a single trial in a probability experiment

Sample Space—The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment; symbol:

If you number your WWK… start numbering at 1 again!

more WWKEvent—consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment; symbol:

Complement—the set of all outcomes in a sample space that are NOT included in the event; symbol:

Classical Probability—Uses sample spaces to determine the probability that an event will happen

Empirical Probability—based on the observations obtained from an experiment.

Subjective Probability—Uses a probability value based on an educated guess—approximate information

Big Picture

Unit 3We are now moving to Unit 3 which is Probability.

The definition of Probability is the chance that something will happen—how likely it is that some event will happen.

ProbabilityRecall that randomness—randomly assigning subjects to treatments in experiments, or randomness in sampling in observational studies—is a key component of statistics.

Probability gives us a way to measure randomness.

First Foldable

Right Side Input

Intro to Probability30

11/10

Tap

e H

ere

Tap

e H

ere

Tape Here

Tape Here

Tap

e H

ere

Tap

e H

ere

Fold it shut

Fold the 2nd Foldable in half before taping

Right Side Input

Intro to Probability30

11/10

Tap

e H

ere

Tap

e H

ere

Tap

e H

ere

Foldable pg. 1

Other Experiments:• Drawing from a deck of cards• Flipping a coin• Drawing a marble from a bag of marbles

Foldable pg. 1

Other Outcomes:• Drawing from a deck of cards {2 of hearts}• Flipping a coin {T}

heads tails

heads tails heads tailsFOUR Possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH, TT

Foldable pg. 2

Foldable pg. 2

Foldable pg. 2

More Examples:• Three coins are flipped. { }

𝑺={𝑯 ,𝑻 } 𝑺={𝑯𝑯 ,𝑯𝑻 ,𝑻𝑯 ,𝑻𝑻 }

Other Events:• Flipping 2 coins and getting 1 tail and 1 head • Rolling a die and getting a 1 or a 5 { ? }

Foldable pg. 3

Foldable pg. 3

𝑬={𝑯 } heads tails

heads tails heads tails

heads tails heads tails heads tails heads tails

𝑬={𝑯𝑯𝑻 ,𝑯𝑻𝑯 ,𝑻𝑯𝑯 }

Foldable pg. 3

Foldable pg. 4

𝑬𝑺

Foldable pg. 4

𝑬𝑺

=𝟒𝟓𝟐

=𝟏𝟏𝟑

=.𝟎𝟕𝟕

𝑬𝑺

=𝟐𝟔

=.𝟑𝟑

𝑬𝑺

=𝟑𝟔

=.𝟓𝟎 You Try!

Foldable pg. 5

𝑷 (𝑬 )=𝟒𝟔 𝑷 (𝑬 ′ )=𝟔−𝟒

𝟔=𝟐𝟔

Foldable pg. 5

You Try!

You Try!

You Try!

Foldable pg. 6

Foldable pg. 6

Subjective

Empirical

Classical

Foldable pg. 7

You Try!

Foldable pg. 7You Try!

You Try!

29

11/10 LeftSide Input

Intro to Probability

Tap

e H

ere

Tap

e H

ere

I typed #6 and #7 wrong,6. “Is #4 a simple of

compound event?”7. “Is #5 a simple of

compound event?”

HomeworkLEFT side