Getting Serious about Ending Poverty: Making the Post-2015 Development Agenda Work

1

The University of Manchester

Thomas PoggeLeitner Professor of Philosophy and International Affairs, Yale University

Getting Serious about Ending

Poverty: Making the Post-

2015 Development Agenda

Work

2

Global Household Income Distribution

Segments 1988 2008 Change in %

Poorest Tenth 0.337 0.251 -25.3%

Second Tenth 0.514 0.414 -19.5%

Third Tenth 0.668 0.587 -12.0%

Fourth Tenth 0.850 0.840 -1.2%

Fifth Tenth 1.154 1.244 +7.7%

Sixth Tenth 1.689 1.993 +18.0%

Seventh Tenth 2.902 3.442 +18.6%

Eighth Tenth 6.056 6.340 +4.7%

80-95th Percentile 42.958 39.137 -8.9%

Richest 5 Per Cent 42.872 45.751 +6.7%

S

Global Household Income Distribution 1988

Global Household Income Distribution 2008

5

Key Facts

In just 20 years, the richest five percent of human beings have gained

about as much (3%) as the poorer half had left at the end of this period.

The ratio of average incomes of the richest five percent and the

poorest fifth rose from 202:1 to 275:1 in this 1988-2008 period.

Had the poorest 30% held steady, its 2008 share of global household

income would have been 21% higher (1.52% instead of 1.25%).

Had it been allowed to gain the 2.9% of global household income that

was in fact gained by the richest five percent, the poorer half would

have nearly doubled its share — sufficient to end severe poverty.

Alternative Global Income Distribution

7

The World Food Summit in Rome,

1996

Promised to halve the number of chronically under-

nourished people between 1996 and 2015.

This implies an annual decline by 3.58% (50%

over 19 years).

“We pledge our political will and our common and

national commitment to achieving food security for

all and to an on-going effort to eradicate hunger in all

countries, with an immediate [!] view to reducing the

number of undernourished people to half their

present level no later than 2015.”

www.fao.org/docrep/003/w3613e/w3613e00.htm

8

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security

Number of Chronically

Undernourished in Millions

Progress against Chronic

Undernutrition

1996 788

2010

2015 target

9

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010

2015 target -50%

10

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010

2015 target 394 -50%

11

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925

2015 target 394 -50%

12

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

13

UNGA’s Millennium Declaration, 2000

Pledges to halve the proportion of hungry

people between 2000 and 2015. This implies

an annual decline by 3.35% (40%

over 15 years).

“to halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of

the world’s people whose income is less than

one dollar a day and the proportion of people

who suffer from hunger.”

www.un.org/millennium/declaration/ares552e.htm

14

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833

2010

2015

target

15

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321

2010

2015

target

16

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321 0.1318

2010

2015

target

17

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321 0.1318

2010

2015

target-50%

18

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321 0.1318

2010

2015

target0.0659 -50%

19

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321 0.1318

2010

2015

target7284 0.0659 -50%

20

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321 0.1318

2010

2015

target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%

21

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321 0.1318

2010 925

2015

target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%

22

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321 0.1318

2010 925 6896

2015

target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%

23

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321 0.1318

2010 925 6896 0.1341

2015

target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%

24

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

Millennium

Declaration

Number of

Undernourished

in Millions

World

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

Chronic

Undernutrition

2000 833 6321 0.1318

2010 925 6896 0.1341 +2%2015

target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%

25

The First Millennium Development Goal

Pledges to halve the proportion of chronically

undernourished people in the population of the

developing countries between 1990 and 2015. This

implies an annual decline in their number by 1.37%

(29% over 25 years).

MDG-1: “Target. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the

proportion of people [in the developing regions]

who suffer from hunger.”

UN: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2012, p. 11;

www.un.org/millenniumgoals

26

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843

2010

2015

target

27

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162

2010

2015

target

28

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162 0.2026

2010

2015

target

29

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162 0.2026

2010

2015

target-50%

30

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162 0.2026

2010

2015

target0.1013 -50%

31

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162 0.2026

2010

2015

target6028 0.1013 -50%

32

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162 0.2026

2010

2015

target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%

33

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162 0.2026

2010 925

2015

target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%

34

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162 0.2026

2010 925 5660

2015

target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%

35

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162 0.2026

2010 925 5660 0.1634

2015

target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%

36

Rome Declaration on

World Food Security




Undernutrition

1996 788

2010 925 +17%

2015 target 394 -50%

MDG1Number of DC

Undernourished

in Millions

DC

Population

in Millions

Proportion

Chronically

Undernourished

Progress against

DC Chronic

Undernutrition

1990 843 4162 0.2026

2010 910 5660 0.1608 -21%2015

target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%

37

Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015

38


Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m

39



Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m

40




MDG 1 1990 843m611m

41




MDG 1 1990 843m611m

Progress Achieved by 2010 (target is -50%)

42




MDG 1 1990 843m611m


Rome Declaration 925m: +17%

43




MDG 1 1990 843m611m



Millennium Declaration 925m: +2%

44




MDG 1 1990 843m611m



Millennium Declaration 925m: +2%

MDG 1 925m: -21%

45

Year

Undernourished

in Millions (2011)

… with “improved

methodology” (2012)

1969–1971 878

1979–1981 853

1990–1992 843

1995–1997 788

2000–2002 833

2005–2007 848

2008 963

2009 1023

2010 925

UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)

46

Year

Undernourished

in Millions (2011)



1969–1971 878

1979–1981 853

1990–1992 843 1000

1995–1997 788

2000–2002 833

2005–2007 848

2008 963

2009 1023

2010 925


47

Year

Undernourished

in Millions (2011)



1969–1971 878

1979–1981 853

1990–1992 843 1000

1995–1997 788 931

2000–2002 833

2005–2007 848

2008 963

2009 1023

2010 925


48

Year

Undernourished

in Millions (2011)



1969–1971 878

1979–1981 853

1990–1992 843 1000

1995–1997 788 931

2000–2002 833 922

2005–2007 848

2008 963

2009 1023

2010 925


49

Year

Undernourished

in Millions (2011)



1969–1971 878

1979–1981 853

1990–1992 843 1000

1995–1997 788 931

2000–2002 833 922

2005–2007 848 884

2008 963

2009 1023

2010 925


50

Year

Undernourished

in Millions (2011)



1969–1971 878

1979–1981 853

1990–1992 843 1000

1995–1997 788 931

2000–2002 833 922

2005–2007 848 884

2008 963 867

2009 1023

2010 925


51

Year

Undernourished

in Millions (2011)



1969–1971 878

1979–1981 853

1990–1992 843 1000

1995–1997 788 931

2000–2002 833 922

2005–2007 848 884

2008 963 867

2009 1023 867

2010 925


52

Year

Undernourished

in Millions (2011)



1969–1971 878

1979–1981 853

1990–1992 843 1000

1995–1997 788 931

2000–2002 833 922

2005–2007 848 884

2008 963 867

2009 1023 867

2010 925 868


53


Rome Declaration 394UNGA Millennium

Declaration 480

MDG 1 611Progress Achieved by

2010 (target +50%)

Old

Methodology

Rome Declaration +17%UNGA Millennium

Declaration +2%

MDG 1 -21%

54


Rome Declaration 394 465.5

UNGA Millennium

Declaration 480 531

MDG 1 611 724Progress Achieved by

2010 (target +50%)

Old

Methodology

Improved

Methodology

Rome Declaration +17%UNGA Millennium

Declaration +2%

MDG 1 -21%

55


Rome Declaration 394 465.5

UNGA Millennium

Declaration 480 531

MDG 1 611 724Progress Achieved by

2010 (target +50%)

Old

Methodology

Improved

Methodology

Rome Declaration +17% -13%

UNGA Millennium

Declaration +2% -14%

MDG 1 -21% -36%

57

The FAO’s New Methodology (2012)

A person counts as undernourished/hungry only

if her/his

(a) “food energy availability [no other nutrient

deficiencies count]

(b) is inadequate to cover even minimum needs

for a sedentary lifestyle”

(c) for “over a year”

FAO: SOFI 2012, Annex 2, p. 50.

58

Lesson 1

Define precisely in advance the goals and

targets the world is committing itself to as

well as the methods by which progress

toward these targets is to be measured or

assessed.

Rule out midstream revisions with

hindsight of definitions, targets, methods.

59

Lesson 2

The monitoring of progress should be

left to groups of independent experts,

not to international agencies (such as

the FAO, the World Bank or the

UNDP) which are politically exposed

and also tasked with achieving

progress.

60

Lesson 3

Move from

a detached wish list

to

specific responsibilities of

named competent actors

61

Lesson 4

Development Assistance (public and private)

is clearly insufficient to compensate for the

powerful centrifugal tendencies of the world

economy.

We must mainstream the concern for the poor

beyond development assistance!

This means: reform national and

supranational institutional arrangements that

are now greatly impeding development.

62

Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals

Protectionist trade barriers distort trade and diminish

trading opportunities for poor populations. To help offset

their effects, affluent countries providing subsidies or

export credits commit to paying a share of the value of

such subventions into a Human Development Fund.

This share is 2% in 2016, rising to 20% in 2025.

YIELD ca. $6 − $60 billion per annum.

63


Pollution and climate change impose massive costs on current

and future poor populations. To help offset these effects, all

countries pay a fee to the Human Development Fund insofar as

their per capita emissions exceed 4 metric tons per person per

year.

This fee is $0.50 per excess metric ton in 2016, rising to $5

in 2025.

YIELD ca. $7 − $70 billion per annum.

64


Arms exports into the developing world fuel wars, civil

wars and repression. To help offset these effects, affluent

arms exporting countries commit to paying a share of the

value of such exports into the Human Development Fund.

This share is 5% in 2016, rising to 50% in 2025.

YIELD ca. $1.4 − $14 billion per annum.

65


Firm-internal trade enables multinational corporations to realize

their profits in jurisdictions where tax rates are very low or zero.

To help address the effects of lost corporate tax revenues on poor

populations, multinational corporations will pay to the Human

Development Fund an alternative minimum tax (AMT) equal to

the amount by which all national taxes they pay fall short of a

minimum percentage of their worldwide profits.

This minimum percentage is 5.5% in 2016, rising to 10% in 2025.

Countries commit to cooperative enforcement of this AMT

against firms with operations in their jurisdiction.

66


Some jurisdictions facilitate the maintenance of secret bank

accounts whose owners and beneficiaries remain anonymous.

Because such accounts facilitate tax abuse, embezzlement,

corruption, drug trading, terrorism and human trafficking,

governments commit to ending the practice as soon as

reasonably possible by imposing coordinated sanctions on

the relevant banks and countries.

67


The populations of some developing countries are burdened

by large debts accumulated by their rulers for purposes

that were not approved by nor beneficial to the population.

Any future such loan will be recognized as constituting a

genuine obligation of the country only if it was ratified in

real time by a Southern Debt Expert Committee as being

acceptable to or serving the interest of the population.

Lenders and their home states commit not to exert pressure

on countries to service debts that earlier governments

incurred without approval from the SDEC.

68


The populations of some developing countries suffer massive

natural resource outflows that are not approved by or beneficial

to the population.

Any future such exports will be vetted by a Southern Resource

Export Expert Committee (SREEC) to determine that the

export is acceptable to or serves the interest of the population.

When the SREEC finds that neither condition is met, the buyer

must pay 20% of the purchase price to the Human Development

Fund.

69


To stimulate pharmaceutical innovation against the diseases

of the poor and to improve access to advanced medicines,

the Human Development Fund will finance a new facility,

the Health Impact Fund, which will offer to reward any new

medicine according to its health impact provided it is sold at

cost.

The HIF will be funded at initially $6 billion per annum.

70


Tax on trade-distorting subventions for poverty eradication

Tax on greenhouse gas emissions for poverty eradication

Tax on arms exports to LDCs for poverty eradication

Alternative Minimum Tax on MNC profits for poverty eradication

End accounts with unknown owners or beneficiaries

Only minimally representative rulers to assume national debt burdens

Tax on natural resource purchases from unrepresentative rulers

Option to have new medicines rewarded according to health impact.

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Getting Serious about Ending Poverty: Making the Post-2015 Development Agenda Work

News & Politics