GEWEX 1988 SPARC 1992
WOCE 1990-2002
CLIVAR 1995
TOGA 1985-1994
WGNEWGCMWGSF
ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000
SOLAS 2001 ->
Recent and Expected Deliverables
• SPARC reference climatology (done)• SPARC Aerosol Assessment• Review paper on the “Annular Modes”• Report on Chemistry-Climate• Instituted new PSC assessment for next
WMO ozone assessment• Instituted group on GWP of HFC-134a
for IPCC
http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/~sparcSPARC 1992
Stratospheric Chemistry
and Climate
Stratosphere-Troposphere coupling
Detection, Attribution & Prediction of Stratospheric
Changes
Model
Development
Process
StudiesData
SPARC’s New Themes
Workshop on “Process-oriented validation of coupled-chemistry climate models”
Grainau / Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, November 2003Conveners: V. Eyring, N.R.P. Harris, M. Rex, T.G. Shepherd
MotivationCCMs have different levels of complexity, produce a wide range of results concerning
timing and extent of ozone recovery and the overall confidence of ozone predictions is currently hard to assess
Scope Develop a standard for process-oriented model validationwith a focus on the model’s ability to predict future ozone
Outcome A table of core processes for stratospheric CCMs within 4 categories Dynamics, Chemistry & Microphysics, Radiation, and Transport For each process, the table includes model diagnostics, variables relevant to apply the diagnostic in CCMs, sources of observational data, references, contacts and links
Desires CCM groups apply diagnostics in a step-wise approach over the next years
Broad support from atmospheric science community and programme managers
Way ahead SPARC working group on CCM validation: progress canbe made in time for next WMO-UNEP and IPCC assessments
Development of diagnostic software packages
Benefit Overall confidence in CCMs will increase
http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/workshops/ccm2003
SPARC General Assembly1-6 August 2004Victoria, Canada
http://sparc.seos.uvic.ca
http://www.sparc.sunysb.edu
ftp://atmos.sparc.sunysb.edu
Directory: /pub/sparc
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
New Satellite Launches
Version 2
C1 and C2
ISCCP(Clouds)
SRB(Radiation)
GVAP(Water Vapour)
ISCCP 2D1 and DX
GVAPNVAP
ISLSCP(Land-Surface)
Version 2 Version 1.1
*Hatched lines represent planned data sets
Initiative IIInitiative I
GACPGACP(Aerosols)
III
GPCP(Precipitation)
TRMMTRMMTERRATERRA
ENVISATENVISATAQUAAQUA
ADEOSIIADEOSII
Global data sets
www.gewex.org
HOWEVER, TRENDS DERIVED FROM GEWEXSATELLITE CLOUD PRODUCTSINDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HAVEBEEN DECREASING DURING THE SAMEPERIOD.
WHAT INFLUENCES HAVE THESE POSSIBLE DECREASES IN CLOUD COVER HAD ON THE RECENT TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE? The same for water vapour?
MODELS PROJECT TEMPERATURE INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH CO2INCREASES. OBSERVATIONS INDICATEWARMER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURING.
GPCP: No evidence for a GPCP: No evidence for a significant global trend over significant global trend over last 20 years...last 20 years...
0.60.40.20.0
-0.2-0.4-0.6
0.60.40.20.0
-0.2-0.4-0.60.60.40.20.0
-0.2-0.4-0.6
0.30.20.10.0
-0.1-0.2-0.3
0.30.20.10.0
-0.1-0.2-0.30.30.20.10.0
-0.1-0.2-0.3
7979 8181 8383 8585 8787 89 91 93 95 97 99 01
But regional trends But regional trends existexist
Curtis/Adler/Huffman 912Curtis/Adler/Huffman 912
CEOP Implementation Underway
Timing of new satellites & GEWEX/CLIVAR campaigns provides opportunity for significant benefit from a more
coordinated observation period.
Monsoon Experiment inSouth America (MESA)
North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
(MDB)
Coordinated EnhancedObserving Period
The First Global Integrated Data Sets of the Water Cycle
WCRP:
www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp/wcrp-home.html
SPARC:
www.aero.jussieu.fr/~sparc
Climate – chemistry model intercomparison workshop:www.pa.op.dlr.de/workshops/ccm2003
SPARC data centre: www.sparc.sunysb.edu,
ftp server: atmos.sparc.sunysb.edu, directory /pub/sparc
SPARC General Assembly: sparc.seos.uvic.ca
GEWEX: www.gewex.org