GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Fishery Assessment of Sardine Stock GSA01 (Northern Alboran) Bellido, J.M.1, Quintanilla, L.2, Giráldez, A.2, Torres, P2.,

Ceruso, C.1, Alemany, F.3, Iglesias, M.3

1 Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Centro Oceanográfico de Murcia. C/ Varadero 1. San Pedro del Pinatar. 30740. Murcia. Spain.

2 Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga. Puerto Pesquero s/n. Apdo 285. Fuengirola. 29640. Málaga. Spain.

3 Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Centro Oceanográfico de Baleares. Muelle del Poniente s/n. Apdo 291. Palma de Mallorca 07015. Spain.

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Introduction

Fishery assessment by VPA methods of the Spanish sardine stock GSA01.

VPA Lowestoft software suite was used and XSA was the assessment method. A separable VPA was also run as exploratory analysis for both stocks.

Stochastic short term projections were also produced.

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

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Estepona

CartagenaMazarrón

Aguilas

GarruchaCarboneras

AlmeríaRoquetas

Caleta de Vélez AdraMotrilMálaga

FuengirolaMarbella

GSA 01 - NORTHERN ALBORAN SEA

SPAIN

MOROCCO ALGERIA

100 0 100 Kilometers

N

Landings and sampling ports (in blue)

GFCM GSA-01 Northern Alboran

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Assessment Data GSA01

Landings time series 2000-2007.

ALK 2003-2006, combined ALK for 2000-2002. Length Distributions 2003-2007, combined for 2000-2002.

Biological sampling 2003-2007 for Maturity at age and Weight-Length relationships.

Tuning data from acoustic survey ECOMED and Commercial Fleet off Estepona, Málaga and Adra.

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

XSA Input Data GSA01Landings (caton)

9325

7457

5348

8244

3964

7208

10002

6766

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Years

To

nn

es

Catch in number (canum)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Num

bers

in

5+

4

3

2

1

0

Mean Weight in catch (weca) and stock (west)

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

0.070

0.080

0.090

0 1 2 3 4 5

Ages

Indiv

idual W

eig

ht (k

g)

20002001200220032004200520062007

Maturity (matprop) and Natural Mortality (natmor)

0.34

0.890.99 1.00 1.00 1.00

0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0 1 2 3 4 5

Ages

Proportion mature atyear start

Natural mortality

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

XSA Input Data GSA01Tuning Fleet ECOMED (fleet)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006

Years

Ag

e g

rou

p p

erce

nta

ge

5+

4

3

2

1

0

Tuning Fleet Estepona (fleet)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Years

Ag

e g

rou

p p

erce

nta

ge

5+

4

3

2

1

0

Tuning Fleet Málaga (fleet)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Years

Ag

e g

rou

p p

erce

nta

ge

5+

4

3

2

1

0

Tuning Fleet Adra (fleet)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007

Years

Ag

e g

rou

p p

erce

nta

ge

5+

4

3

2

1

0

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Assessment Model

Separable VPA – as Exploratory tool.

VPA - XSA (Extended Survivors Analysis) as assessment tool.

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Diagnostics Separable GSA01

Log catchability residual plots. Some conflict between ages seem to appear. Fleet behaviour and fishery movements could affect the catchability pattern.

SEPARABLE

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0/ 1 1/ 2

2/ 3 3/ 4

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

XSA Assessment

Main Settings XSA:Fbar 1-3.Age 2 for q stock-size independent and age 3 for q independent of age.Fshrinkage = 0.500 and S.E. for fleet terminal estimates ≥ 0.300

XSA Diagnostics.Residuals by Fleet.Estimations of Survivors by age and fleet.

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Fleet Diagnostics GSA01ECOMED

-0.62 -0.95 2.32 -0.76

1.27 1.35 -2.03 -0.55

0.09 2.12 0.38 -2.57

-0.60 1.76 0.25 -1.40

-0.21 1.00 0.11 -3.80

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ESTEPONA

-3.80 0.54 -0.44 -0.24 0.69 -0.55

2.12 0.42 -0.05 -0.27 0.13 -0.23

-0.36 0.36 0.35 0.20 -0.55

-0.10 0.09 0.40 -0.18 -0.22

0.21 -0.20 0.18 -0.04 -0.26

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

MÁLAGA

-3.80 0.70 -0.85 0.12 0.53 -0.49

2.12 0.66 -0.75 -0.31 0.54 -0.13

-0.59 -0.63 0.19 0.17 0.83

-0.49 -0.94 -0.37 0.11 1.67

-1.08 -1.77 -1.62 -0.21 1.24

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ADRA

-3.80 -1.10 1.76 -0.96 0.29

2.12 -0.08 0.88 1.38 -2.17

0.18 0.19 0.48 -0.85

0.33 -0.17 -0.06 -0.10

0.22 -0.31 -0.08 -0.05

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Minimun (from ECOMED)

Maximun (from ECOMED)

Minimun (from ECOMED)

Maximun (from ECOMED)

Minimun (from ECOMED)

Maximun (from ECOMED)

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Estimated Survivors by Fleet GSA01

Age 0 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet

0

100000

200000

300000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa

FLT04-ADRA (thousand P shrinkage mean

F shrinkage mean

Survivors at end of year

Age 0 - Scaled weights by fleet

0

0.25

0.5

0.75 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa

FLT04-ADRA (thousand

P shrinkage mean

F shrinkage mean

Age 1 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet

0

50000

100000

150000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa

FLT04-ADRA (thousand P shrinkage mean

F shrinkage mean

Survivors at end of year

Age 1 - Scaled weights by fleet

0

0.25

0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa

FLT04-ADRA (thousand

P shrinkage mean

F shrinkage mean

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Estimated Survivors by Fleet GSA01

Age 2 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet

0

100000

200000

300000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa

FLT04-ADRA (thousand

F shrinkage mean

Survivors at end of year

Age 2 - Scaled weights by fleet

0

0.25

0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa FLT04-ADRA (thousand

F shrinkage mean

Age 3 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet

0

50000

100000

150000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa

FLT04-ADRA (thousand

F shrinkage mean

Survivors at end of year

Age 3 - Scaled weights by fleet

0

0.25

0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa FLT04-ADRA (thousand

F shrinkage mean

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Estimated Survivors by Fleet GSA01

Age 4 - Estimated Survivors by Fleet

0

20000

40000

60000 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa

FLT04-ADRA (thousand

F shrinkage mean

Survivors at end of year

Age 4 - Scaled weights by fleet

0

0.25

0.5 FLT01-ECOMED (thousa

FLT02-ESTEPONA (thou

FLT03-MALAGA (thousa FLT04-ADRA (thousand

F shrinkage mean

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Results – Stock Summary GSA01

FISHING MORTALITY

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

RECRUITMENT

0100

200300

400500

600700800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

TOTAL BIOMASS AND SSB

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

TOTAL BIOMASS

SSB

TOTAL LANDINGS

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

SSB - RECRUITMENT

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

SSB at 1st of J anuary

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Short term projectionsDeterministic Projections for three years (2008 to 2010).

MFDP software (Multi-Fleet Deterministic Projections). Settings:

Recruitment Geometric mean: GSA01 - R2007 = 228 millions.

F statu quo is Fishing Mortality Average last three years and Reference ages 1-3, i.e. average Fbar last 3 years.

GSA01 – Fstatu quo = 0.28.

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Results GSA01 Short term projection

2008Biomass SSB FMult FBar Landings

27423 23727 1 0.2761 5828

2009 2010Biomass SSB FMult FBar Landings Biomass SSB

23952 20311 0 0 0 26954 23165. 20311 0.1 0.0276 563 26349 22576. 20311 0.2 0.0552 1112 25760 22004. 20311 0.3 0.0828 1645 25188 21448. 20311 0.4 0.1104 2165 24631 20907. 20311 0.5 0.1381 2671 24090 20381. 20311 0.6 0.1657 3164 23563 19870. 20311 0.7 0.1933 3643 23051 19372. 20311 0.8 0.2209 4110 22554 18889. 20311 0.9 0.2485 4565 22070 18419. 20311 1 0.2761 5008 21599 17962. 20311 1.1 0.3037 5439 21141 17517. 20311 1.2 0.3313 5859 20696 17085. 20311 1.3 0.359 6268 20263 16664. 20311 1.4 0.3866 6667 19842 16256. 20311 1.5 0.4142 7055 19433 15858. 20311 1.6 0.4418 7432 19035 15472. 20311 1.7 0.4694 7801 18647 15096. 20311 1.8 0.497 8159 18271 14730. 20311 1.9 0.5246 8508 17905 14375. 20311 2 0.5522 8848 17548 14029

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Conclusions - AssessmentLandings decrease in 2007, reaching up 6,770 t. The time series shows a rather fluctuating trend, with the lowest value in 2004 (3,960 t) and the greatest in 2006 (10,000 t).

Fishing mortality is at a moderate level (F07=0.26), showing a rather stable trend.

Recruitment in 2007 decreases from that of previous years (R07=228 millions), showing the lowest value of the time series. The time series recruitment shows a decreasing pattern.

Both Total biomass in 2007 (TB=32,300 t ) and Spawning Stock Biomass in 2007 (SSB=28,800 t) decrease with respect to 2006, although they are still over the lowest SSB in 2000 (Bloss=22,100 t).

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Conclusions – Catch Forecasting

statu quo F (Fbar05-07=0.28) and (R07=228 mill):

landings are predicted to be 5,800 t in 2008 and 5,000 t in 2009 t.Total biomass will decrease from 27,400 t in 2008 to 21,600 t in 2010 SSB will also decrease from 23,700 t in 2008 to 18,000 t in 2010.

This exploitation pattern of maintaining F statu quo 2008-10, with scenarios of low recruitment rates, could prompt a decline of the fishery with SBB scenarios under current Bloss.

In this situation it is particularly important to pay special attention to recruitment levels as they could prompt sudden increases or drops in a near future.

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Conclusions - Management considerations

No reference points can be suggested at this point. Further years will come an extension of the assessment time series suitable to suggest Reference Points and Harvest Control Rules.

This fishery is considered as fully exploited.

Under this scenario we consider fishing effort should not increase beyond the current levels. This should allow not to increase (or at least to maintain) the current levels of Fishing mortality.

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Further work

Reference points.

Harvest Control Rules.

GFCM SCSA, Izmir 22-26 Sept 2008 Sardine GSA01 Bellido et al

Thanks for your attention.

Comments are welcomed.

Dr. Jose Mª Bellido (josem.bellido@mu.ieo.es)