GfK Market Insight Asia_201104

1

GfK Retail and Technology 4/2010

Mr Stanley KeeRegional Commercial Director, Asia

2


1. Objective 4

2. Macroeconomic Information

- GDP Year-on-Year Growth 6

- Inflation Rate Evolution 7

- Unemployment Rate 8

- Stock Market 9

- Currency Exchange Rate 10

- Consumer Confidence 11

Content

7/2010

3. Technology Market Trend

- Market Overview 13

- Market Trend

- Total Market 17

- Consumer Electronics 24

- Major Domestic Appliance 28

- Photo 32

- Telecom 33

- Small Domestic Appliance 37

- Information Technology 41

Glossary Terms 45

Terms of Usage and Disclaimer 48

1 Objective

4


Objective

To monitor the sales trend of key market segments and products audited by GfK, together with the economic information. These information are the key indicators of economic development and would assist our valued partners to better manage their businesses.

The Asia report includes 9 countries : Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Only

7/2010

Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Only common products across the 9 countries are included in the Total Market analysis.

2 Macroeconomic Information

6


Asia - GDP Year-On-Year Growth

7/2010

10

14

18

22

Note : Vietnam provides only yearly data; therefore quarterly data takes that of the yearly.

-10

-6

-2

2

6

Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410

Hong Kong Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam

7


Asia - Inflation Rate Evolution

7/2010

10

15

20

25

Note: Vietnam 2008 and 2009 figures are yearly estimates.

-10

-5

0

5

Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11


8


Asia - Unemployment Rate

7/2010

4

7

10

13

Note: Vietnam figures are yearly estimates, the monthly takes that of the yearly

-5

-2

1

4

Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11


9


Asia - Stock Market

7/2010

60

80

100

120

140

Note : Jan08 is used as the base

0

20

40

60

Apr-

09

May-

09

Jun-

09

Jul-09 Aug-

09

Sep-

09

Oct-

09

Nov-

09

Dec-

09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar-

10

Apr-

10

May-

10

Jun-

10

Jul-10 Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct-

10

Nov-

10

Dec-

10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar-

11

Apr-

11

HIS JKSE KOSPI KLSE PSEI STI TWII SET VNIndex

10


Asia - Currency Exchange Rate (interbank rate)

7/2010

85

90

95

100

105

110

Note : May08 is used as the base. IDRx1000, KRWx100, VNDx1000

60

65

70

75

80

Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

USD/HKD USD/IDR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/SGD USD/KRW USD/TWD USD/THB USD/VND

11


Asia - Consumer Confidence

7/2010

60.960.0

66.9

59.8

66.3

79.4

56.5 55.3

90.0

76.6

61.4

54.1

67.9

59.3

86.6

65.7

93.7

75.7

56.1 55.7

66.2

80.1

86.1

62.5

57.3

90.3

60

80

100

120

Source: MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer ConfidencePeriods are based on when the survey was conducted. Therefore, if the survey was conducted in March/ April '10, projecting consumer confidence for the six months ahead, the above would be highlighted as H1 2010.

24.7

49.2

28.8 27.8

40.5

31.2

39.4

23.0

49.7

55.354.150.6

56.1 55.7

0

20

40

60


H1 2009 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010

3 Technology Market Trend

13


• Asia's rapid growth is accompanied by the emergence of pockets of overheating across the region in both goods and assets prices.

• Rising food and oil costs continue to plaque the region, causing inflation to continue to be an issue in Asia. Philippines and Malaysia joined Vietnam in raising interest rates as nations in a region that led the global economic recovery intensified their fight against inflation. The highest inflation in the region was recorded in Vietnam, whose inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in almost

Asia - Market Overview

recorded in Vietnam, whose inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in almost two and a half years since December 2008. This came after its consumer price index in March rose about 13.9% year on year and 2.17% month on month.

• Year to date sales value and units across all panels tracked registered healthy growths of 22.2% and 18.2 %. Telecommunication is the highest growth sector at 41.9% and 28.9% value and unit sales respectively, and 9.3% average price increase in USD. Consumer Electronics also recorded substantial price increase at 9% average growth.

14



• The Consumer Electronic market continues to experience high value growth of11.4% vs the previous year, while volume growth registered 2.1% in April. Thisis largely due to the rising popularity of premium products such as LCD TVs andBlu-ray Players. As a result, average selling price grew by 9% vs the previousyear, driven mainly by consumers’ switch from CRT TVs to LCD TVs.

• LCD TV continues to do well across the nine Asia countries, while CRT-TV is onits way to completely delisting in the developing countries. This switchoverits way to completely delisting in the developing countries. This switchovertrend is especially apparent in developed countries such as Singapore, HongKong, Taiwan and South Korea where the CRT-TV is almost totally replaced byflat panel TVs.

• As a whole, the Digital Camera category continued to show growth over thesame period last year, registering double digit in sales value. All markets,except Vietnam, registered growth; with Philippines taking the lead. In the caseof Hong Kong, although decline was registered in sales units over the sameperiod last year, the sales value and the average price registered positivegrowth—an indication that consumers are purchasing higher price cameras.

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• Small Domestic Appliances showed robust growth in Asia, especially for developed nations. Singapore and Hong Kong led growth for SDA category for first four months of 2011 compared to 2010, with Singapore showing improvement of 36.7% and Hong Kong, 29.8% in value terms. Malaysia and Taiwan have also shown strong robust double digit growth. Key SDA products for Asia’s economy are Food Preparation and Vacuum Cleaners. Asian consumers also prefer high end Vacuum Cleaners as indicated by the increase in average pricing. pricing.

• Major Domestic Appliances saw a robust growth of 13.8% in value and 7.5 % in volume owing to increase in consumer expenditure. This growth was contributed mainly by the increased sales of air conditioners and washing machines, which both grew considerably in volume and value terms. Overall, Singapore registered the most expansion as price increases meant value growth (26.5%) would surpass the volume growth (20.6%). Emerging markets like Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippines witnessed substantial price declines owing to intense competition in the market. Within MDA, the trend towards more sophisticated and premium segments like front load washing machines, split inverter air conditioners etc continues.

16



• Intense competition from low cost local and Chinese brands are continuously driving the prices of feature phone downwards even as these devices are being packed with more features. The high/mid end feature phone segments are gradually fading into the lower cost segments resultantly. Sales units continue to grow albeit marginally while the total value of feature phones sales fell 30%, testament to the impact of falling prices. Smartphones continue its strong triple digit growth, while prices maintain strong with minute price erosion.

• In the IT panel, multi-functional printing devices continue to grow across Southeast Asia, contributed mainly by the increased sales from the INKJET segment. Malaysia especially is showing the largest growth for Inkjet devices, overtaking Thailand as the 2nd largest Inkjet market, after Indonesia. The overall computing devices segment in Apr’11 saw Webbook sales in Taiwan growing by more than 30% over the previous month to hit 20,000 units. This considerable growth could be attributed to sales of the 32GB –Android OS models. Another hot-seller in the market is one model that has both a Netbook’s full keyboard features (detachable) as well as Webbook’s connectivity

17


18


19


20


21


22


23


24


25


26


27


28


29


30


31


32


33


34


35


36


37


38


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GfK Retail and Technology 4/2010GfK Retail and Technology 5/2011

Information Tech.Growth vs last year

January 2011 - April 2011

Sales Value USD Sales Units Price USD

Total

DESK COMPUTERS

8,4 6,8 1,5

-3,4 -2,8 -0,6

© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com PRJ 79311 - RG 2036794 - RP 10010479 - ID 270214528

MOBILE COMPUTER

MONITORS

PRINTER

MULTI FUNCTION DEV

18,o 22,1 -3,4

-8,5 -4,9 -3,8

1,4 -0,7

12,7 14,0 -1,2

-0,7

40

GfK Retail and Technology 4/2010GfK Retail and Technology 5/2011

Information Tech.Growth vs last year

January 2011 - April 2011

Sales Value <LC> Sales Units Price <LC>

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Malaysia

3,8 9,7 -5,4

19,7 13,5 5,5

24,4 29,5 -4

-11,1 17,9 -24,6

© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com PRJ 79311 - RG 2036794 - RP 10010480 - ID 270214529

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

-11,1 17,9 -24,6

0,2 4,4 -4

2,4 4,4 -1,8

-9,9 -7,1 -3,1

9 9,4 -0,4

4,2 -8,4 13,8

41


42


43


44


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Cons. Electronics : consumer electronics (CE), i.e. audio & visual products e.g. Colour TV, Camcorder, Audio Home System.

Major Domest Appl. : major domestic appliance (MDA), i.e. Air Conditioner, Cooling (Refrigerator), Washing Machine, Microwave Oven.

Small Domest Appl. : small domestic appliance (SDA), i.e. Food Preparation, Iron, Vacuum Cleaner.

Photo : digital camera.

Information Tech. : information technology (IT), i.e. Desk Computer, Mobile Computer, Printer, and Monitor.

Glossary Terms

Information Tech. : information technology (IT), i.e. Desk Computer, Mobile Computer, Printer, and Monitor.

Telecom : telecommunication, i.e. Mobile Phone, Smart Phone.

Independents : retail stores with less than 3 outlets.

Chains/MM : chain retail stores with 3 or more outlets and central policy. MM (MassMerch) comprises department stores and/or hypermarkets.

<LC> : Local currency.

Sources for macro economic data are :Census & Statistics Department, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Oanda Corporation, MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence, Statistics Indonesia of The Republic of Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, Bank of Korea, Korea National Statistics Office, Department of Statistics, Malaysia, Trading economics - Global Economic Research, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas / National Statistics Office (NSO), Singapore Department of Statistics,Singapore Ministry of Trade & Industry/Ministry of Manpower, National statistics - Republic of China (Taiwan), National Economic Development, Thailand, Commerce Ministry, Thailand, Bank of Thailand, The Stock Exchange of Thailand, General Statistics Office (GSO), State Bank of Vietnam, World Bank, VNDirect Securities Corporation, PACIFIC Exchange Rate Service

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Glossary Terms

Chart Analysis :

- Jan08-Mar08 – Mar09 refers to January to March 2008 and January to March 2009


TotalSales Value %

Jan 08-Mar 08 - Mar 09

Jan 08-Mar 08 Jan 09-Mar 09 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09

Common Products in Total Market Analysis : CRT TV, PTV, DVD Player/Recorder, Camcorder, Audio Home System, Air Conditioner, Cooling, Microwave Oven, Washing Machine, Mobile Phones and Smart Phone, Desk Computer, Mobile Computer and Printer, and Monitor.

Product excluded in Total Market Analysis : Food Preparation, Iron, and Vacuum Cleaner.

January to March 2009

- 1st bar shows Jan to Mar 2008; 2nd bar shows Jan to Mar 2009; all other bars show each period from Mar08 to Mar09

- Each bar adds to 100% and looks at the value share of the products within the specified period

© by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com PRJ 79311 / RG 1435185 / ID 7117567

29.7

24.2

9.1

37

28.2

23.1

9.9

38.8

28

27

8.9

36

26.5

30.6

8.9

34

26.5

31.9

8.1

33.5

26.5

31.1

7.8

34.5

23.8

35.9

7.7

32.6

26.6

26.5

8.4

38.6

27.3

23.9

8.1

40.7

28

22.8

8.5

40.6

27.6

21.9

9.3

41.3

28.5

20.5

11.2

39.9

30.1

20.8

10.1

39

27.1

22.6

9.8

40.5

27.2

26.3

9.8

36.7

Cons. Electronics

Major Domestic Appl.

Photo

Telecom

47


Glossary Terms

Chart Analysis :

- Ytd : year to date

- looks at the share by sector Year to date 2008 and Year to data 2009


By CountrySales Value %

Ytd 2009

Hong Kong

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Indonesia

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Malaysia

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Philippine

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Singapore

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

South Korea

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Taiwan

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Thailand

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Vietnam

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

21.1

7.2

21.5

50.2

20.8

7.8

23.1

48.4

21.2

16

2.5

60.3

20.1

15.9

3.3

60.7

20.8

17.9

7.4

53.9

24.2

21.4

9

31.7

19.2

4.5

30.2

17.9

4.9

47

42.7

18.9

18.4

37.6

15.2

20.7

34.4

35.3

8.8

31.9

31.2

8.8

34.7

25.3

10.3

30.6

28.2

12.6

31.8

23.9

11.7

34

24.9

10.1

28.2

30.3

2.7

27.3

29.5

3.4

CONS. ELECTRONICS

MAJOR DOMESTIC APPL.

PHOTO

TELECOM

Chart Analysis :

- shows the growth Jan to Mar 2009 against Jan to Mar 2008

- looks at the growth by Sales Value in USD in the 1st column, Sales Units in the 2nd column, Price in USD in 3rd column


TotalGrowth vs last year

January 2009 - March 2009


Sales Value USD Sales Units Price USD

Total

Cons. Electronics

Major Domestic Appl.

Photo

Telecom

-21.2

-25

-25

-13.9

-17.4

1.7

-6.4

-9.3

-0.1

8.4

-22.5

-19.8

-17.3

-13.8

-23.8


50.248.4

45.4 44.647

20

26.6

21.5

28.1 29.8 28.632.7 31

38.8 39.8

48


Terms of Usage and Disclaimer

GfK data is collected in accordance with generally accepted standards of the research industry. GfK draws an appropriate sample for representative extrapolation to the universe; the data in this report reflects panel market based on the GfK audited channel.

GfK shall not be liable to the Client for lost profits or revenues, economic loss, including consequential or similar damages, arising out of either the use of GfK Data by the Client or GfK or the performance of any consulting, analytical or other services by GfK.

The information in this report can be republished as long as GfK is quoted as the source.

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GfK. Growth from Knowledge

Contact : [email protected]

Mr Stanley Kee

Regional Commercial Director, Asia

GfK Market Insight (GMI)

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