November 4. 2013
GHG Emission BAU in the Industrial Process Sector
Kevin KIM Korea Energy Management Corporation, KEMCO
1
2
3
BAU Estimation
Result
Background
Energy consumption & GHG emissions
01
primary & final energy consumption CO2 emissions
LNG
1990
Nuclear
Renewables, etc
Oil
Coal
Energy
Industrial process
Agriculture, waste
(Mtoe) (Mt CO2)
2000 2011
Energy consumption by sector(‘11)
Industry 61.6%
30.4%
Transport 18.2%
Transportation 7.9%
etc 2.2%
38.1%
16.8%
11.7%
3.0%
26.2%
53.8%
3.2% 14.2% 2.6%
22.2%
52.0%
9.8%
1.8%
14.1%
5.3% 11.2% 7.8%
9.4% 6.8% 11.4%
85.3% 81.9% 80.7%
93.2
192.9
275.7
296.1
512.0 668.8
Industry 29.2%
Residential/Commercial 10.3%
etc 1.3% Transport
14.8%
Power generation
44.5%
1990 2000 2010 Industrial sector (9.4%)
205.9 (Mtoe)
(6) 02
The Industrial sector amount : 9.4%(62.8Mt CO2) of total national emission (2010)
GHG emission trend in industrial sector (1990~2010)
Annual increase rate of 9.1% in the total emission, compared to 2009 (2010)
Mineral production
Emission source
Chemical industry
Metal production
Halocarbon production/consumption
HFCs, PFCs, SF6 consumption(49.2%) and Mineral industry(49.2%) accounts for 98.4% (2010)
CO2,(49.7%) > SF6(31.4%) > HFCs(13%), (2010)
All of source from industrial sector has increased compared to 2009 except for chemistry(-4.1%)
Mineral production
Halocarbon consumption
Chemistry
Halocarbon production
(6) 03
Projected National GHG Reduction Path
(2010–2020)
Projected National GHG Reduction Path
(2010–2020)
(6) 04
05
(6) 07
Emission in the process of producing
Times series differs from common consumption pattern
Activity description in industrial sector
Technology change, Market trend applied
Methodology
Methodology verification process
(6) 06
Source Specific Source Methodology approach
2.A. Mineral
1. Cement production 2. Lime production 3. Limestone/Dolomite usage 4. Sodium carbonate
production/consumption
Activity→1996 IPCC GL/GPG 2000→Emission
(CO2)
2.B. Chemistry
1. Ammonia production (CO2) 2. Nitric Acid production (N2O) 3. Adipic Acid Production (N2O) 4. Petrochemical product (CH4)
Activity→1996 IPCC GL/GPG 2000 Emission
(CO2, CH4, N2O)
2.C.Metal 1. Steel production 2. Ferro Alloy production
Activity→1996 IPCC GL Emission
(CO2)
2.D. Extra 1. Paper 2. Food
Activity→1996 IPCC GL Emission (Indirect emission)
2.E.HFCs,PFCs,SF6 production
1. By-product (HFCs) Activity→1996 IPCC GL Emission
(HFCs)
2.F.HFCs,PFCs,SF6 consumption
1. Cooling & Air-condition (HFCs) 2. Semiconductor and Display (PFCs) 3. Electric Appliance (SF6)
Activity→1996 IPCC GL/ 2006 IPCC GL Emission
(HFCs, PFCs, SF6)
(6) 07
Emission mitigation though CDM project
- The emission coming from Nitro Acid, Adipic Acid production plant is
applied to national emission inventory
2006 IPCC GL is partly applied
- HFCs, PFCs, SF6 consumed at Semiconductor, Display sector
2006 IPCC Coefficient appliance (Methodology : 2000 Good Practice Guidance)
CO2 emission recalculation : Limestone in power sector
- Limestone used at Flue Gas Desulfurization in power plant
- Data availability of limestone usage is applied to national inventory
(6) 08
Composed of 4 Modules
Sector Mineral
Process
Cement Production
(시멘트 생산)
Sodium carbonate
consumption (소다회 소비)
Limestone and Dolomite usage (석회석, 백운석 소비)
- for Pig iron and Power
Quick Lime Production
(생석회 생산)
Available
Data
Activity
Data
Cement sector Value
added
,Clinker Production data
Consumption of Sodium
carbonate according to
Glass Production
(Data : GDP forecast)
Production of pig iron
Intensity of bituminous
coal power, power
generation amount
Consumption of quick
lime In steel industry
(Data : GDP forecat)
Emission
Estimation
Intensity Approach
Define clinker
production per capita as
Time variable
Two-stage least squares
(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)
Least – squares
Approach
(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)
Intensity Approach
Least – squares
Approach
(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)
(6) 09
Composed of 4 Modules
Sector Chemistry
Process
Ammonia Production Nitric Acid Production Adipic Acid Production Petrochemical product
Carbon Black Production
Ethylene EDC
(에틸렌 디클로라이드)
N2(g) + 3H2(g) ⇄
2NH3(g) + 92kJ
-
Available
Data
Activity
Data
Chemistry
value-added,
ammonia production
Oil fraction and
Nitric acid production
(CDM registed)
Oil fraction and
Adipic acid production
(CDM registed)
Oil fraction and
carbon black
production
Oil fraction and
ethylene
production
Oil fraction and EDC
production
Emission
Estimation
Least – squares
Approach
(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)
Least – squares
Approach
(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)
Intensity
(Increasing rate)
Least – squares
Approach
(RMSE, MAPE,
MAE)
Least – squares
Approach
(RMSE, MAPE,
MAE)
Least – squares
Approach
(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)
(6) 10
Composed of 4 Modules
Sector Metal Halocarbon production and consumption (’06)
Process
Steel and Ferro alloy
production
(Graphite electrode)
HCFC-22 production HFCs consumption Semiconductor Display
(LCD, PDP, OLED)
-
Refrigerant for air
condition
Available
Data
Activity
Data
Forecast production in
the steel-making,
Graphite electrode
usage
HCFC-22 production
Allowance
(Using CDM Project,
Government plan)
HFCs Consumption
Value added of
transportation
equipment
Mask layer trend and
Production rate.
Display production and
mask layer trend
Emission
Estimation Intensity Approach
•Government plan :
production cold phase(’30)
• Emission Phase -out
Least – squares
Approach
(RMSE, MAPE, MAE)
Intensity elasticity
(%intensity/%square)
Intensity Approach
- Weighted square *
weighted square
intensity
05
(6) 11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
BaU in industrial process sector
Halocarbon
Metal
Chemistry
Mineral
Mt CO2