GHG mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries: 2017 update
Supporting information on emission projections
Project number
15032
NewClimate Institute 2017
Authors
Takeshi Kuramochi, Hanna Fekete, Frederic Hans, Lisa Luna, Sofia Gonzales-Zuiga, Sebastian Sterl, Markus Hagemann, Niklas Hhne (NewClimate Institute) Heleen van Soest, Michel den Elzen, Kendall Esmeijer, Mark Roelfsema (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) Nicklas Forsell, Olga Turkovska (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Contributors
Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
This document has been prepared by PBL/NewClimate Institute/IIASA under contract to DG CLIMA
(EC service contract N 340201/2015/717962/SERJCLIMA.A4) started in December 2015.
This project is funded by the EU:
Disclaimer
The views and assumptions expressed in this report represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the client.
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GHG mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries: 2017 update
NewClimate Institute | November 2017 i
Table of Contents
Acronyms .................................................................................................................................................. ii
1 Argentina ........................................................................................................................................... 1
2 Australia ............................................................................................................................................ 5
3 Brazil ................................................................................................................................................. 9
4 Canada ........................................................................................................................................... 13
5 Chile ................................................................................................................................................ 16
6 China ............................................................................................................................................... 20
7 Colombia ......................................................................................................................................... 27
8 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) ...................................................................................... 33
9 Ethiopia ........................................................................................................................................... 35
10 European Union .............................................................................................................................. 39
11 India ................................................................................................................................................ 43
12 Indonesia ........................................................................................................................................ 51
13 Japan .............................................................................................................................................. 55
14 Kazakhstan ..................................................................................................................................... 60
15 Mexico ............................................................................................................................................. 65
16 Morocco .......................................................................................................................................... 69
17 Philippines ....................................................................................................................................... 74
18 Republic of Korea ........................................................................................................................... 78
19 Russian Federation ......................................................................................................................... 83
20 Saudi Arabia ................................................................................................................................... 88
21 South Africa .................................................................................................................................... 92
22 Thailand .......................................................................................................................................... 98
23 Turkey ........................................................................................................................................... 102
24 Ukraine .......................................................................................................................................... 106
25 United States of America .............................................................................................................. 110
References .......................................................................................................................................... 114
GHG mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries: 2017 update
NewClimate Institute | November 2017 ii
Acronyms
AFOLU agriculture, forestry and other land use
BAU
BR1
BR2
BUR1
BUR2
CAFE
business-as-usual
First Biennial Report
Second Biennial Report
First Biennial Update Report
Second Biennial Update Report
Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards
CAT Climate Action Tracker
CH4 methane
CNG compressed natural gas
CO2 carbon dioxide
CO2e carbon dioxide-equivalent
COP21 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC
CPP
CPS
United States of Americas Clean Power Plan
Current Policies Scenario
CSP
DESA
concentrated solar power
UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs
EDGAR Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research
EEA European Energy Agency
EPA United States of Americas Environmental Protection Agency
ERF Emissions Reduction Fund
ETS emissions trading system
FAIR PBLs Framework to Assess International Regimes for differentiation of commitments
NF3 nitrogen trifluoride
F-gas fluorinated gas
G4M IIASAs Global Forest Model
GCF Green Climate Fund
GDP gross domestic product
GHG greenhouse gas
GLOBIOM IIASA's Global Biosphere Management Model
Gt gigatonne (billion tonnes)
GW gigawatt (billion watts)
GWh gigawatt-hour (billion watt-hour)
GWP
H2
Global Warming Potential
hydrogen
Ha
HWP
hectare
harvested wood products
HEPS High Energy Performance Standards
HFC
ICCT
hydrofluorocarbon
International Council on Clean Transportation
IEA International Energy Agency
IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
IMAGE PBLs Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment
INDC intended nationally determined contribution
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPPU Industrial Processes and Product Use
JCM
JRC
Joint Crediting Mechanism
Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
GHG mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries: 2017 update
NewClimate Institute | November 2017 iii
Acronyms (continued)
km/l kilometre per litre
ktoe thousand tonnes of oil equivalent
kWh kilowatt-hour (thousand watts-hour)
LPG liquefied petroleum gas
LULUCF land use, land use change, and forestry
MEPS Minimum Energy Performance Standards
MJ megajoule (million joules)
Mm3 mega cubic meters (million cubic metres)
mpg miles per gallon
Mt megatonne (million tonnes)
Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent
MW megawatt (million watts)
N2O nitrous oxide
N/A not available
NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NC3 Third National Communication
NC6 Sixth National Communication
NDC nationally determined contribution
NOX nitrogen oxides
NRE New and Renewable Energies
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PBL PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
PES Payments for Ecosystem Services
PFC
PIK
pkm
perfluorocarbon
Potsdam institute for climate impact and research
passenger-kilometre
PV photovoltaic
RE renewable energy
REC Renewable Energy Certificate
REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the role of
Conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon
stocks in developing countries
REDD-
PAC
REDD+ Policy Assessment Centre
RPS renewable portfolio standards
SF6 sulphur hexafluoride
SSP2 Shared Socio-economic Pathways middle scenario
t tonne (thousand kilograms)
tce tonne coal equivalent (29.288 GJ)
TIMER
tkm
PBLs Targets IMage Energy Regional Model
tonne-kilometre
TPES total p
