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GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400...

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GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia and World - Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Low Carbon Measures - Tatsuya HANAOKA Center for Social and Environmental Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan 0 The 23rd AIM International Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES 27-29 November 2017
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Page 1: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia and World

- Cobenefits and Tradeoffs of Low Carbon Measures -

Tatsuya HANAOKA

Center for Social and Environmental SystemsNational Institute for Environmental Studies

Japan

0

The 23rd AIM International WorkshopOhyama Memorial Hall, NIES

27-29 November 2017

Page 2: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emission pathways (FY2014 – FY2018)

1

Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.

Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission

estimation

Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios・National & regional emissions

scenarios・Urban & household emissions AQ

assessment

Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG・Assessment of health, agriculture,

water cycle, sea level rise

SLCP emissions scenariosImproved emission inventory

Feedback of impactsAssessment of activities/policies

Regional EmissionInventories and

Chemical Transfer Model

Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)

Climate and Environment

Model

Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia

AIM/Enduse modelSocio-economical & emissions scenario

Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation

Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)

MDG・SDG・Future Earth

StakeholdersPolicy makers

Society

Information transmissionSystem utilization

CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANETProposal and assessment of climate and

air pollution policies

Regional strategy

⇅Global

strategy

Science

Experiment setupDatabase development

Metric definitions

Model improvement

REASInventory

SLCPs, Air pollutantsGHGs emissions

Page 3: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)

2

Global model AIM/CGE

Global model AIM/Enduse

National modelAIM/Enduse

HouseholdModel

Local Air pollution model

Theme3Env. & Climate

ImpactsGlobal emissions

scenarios onLLGHG・SLCP

Theme 1Emission inventory

Theme 4Synthesis

system

Local emissionsscenarios onLLGHG・SLCP

National emissions Scenarios onLLGHG・SLCP

Air p

ollu

tion

man

agem

ent

tech

nolo

gies

Air p

ollu

tion

man

agem

ent

polic

ies a

nd e

vent

s at

nat

iona

l/loc

al sc

ale

Information for negotiation on GHG reductions

Env. & climatePolicy in JapanAssessment of

Env. & climate policies in Asia

Green:Relation to otherThem

Orange:Relation to Env.policies

Improvement of Enduse(Local activities &

Pollution Management Technologies)

Assessment of actions & policies

Future scenarios

Impr

oved

inve

ntor

y

Assessment ofmitigation costs &

climate change impacts

Emissions scenarioson LLGHG & SLCP

Future socio-economic scenarios

Env. & ClimateImpacts

Socio-economic scenario considering climate & Env. Impact

AIM models

Future Scenarios

Research goals

Sub-theme (2)

Sub-theme (1)

Sub-theme (3)

Page 4: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

Objectives

3

This study analyses appropriate balanced emissions pathways of GHGs, air pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) while taking GHG mitigation actions for achieving 2 ℃ target1. estimation of technological mitigation potentials and costs

of the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6

2. How large cobenefits in reducing of SLCPs and air pollutantsdue to effects of different LCS measures equivalent to 2℃

3. How large tradeoffs of increasing SLCPs and air pollutants due to effects of different LCS measures equivalent to 2℃

4. How large effects of air pollutant control measures in addition to different LCS measures equivalent to 2℃

5. How large effects of promoting electrification in transport sector and building sector

Page 5: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

SLCPs and Air Pollutants Reductions- Advantage and Disadvantage -

4

SO2reduction

Advantage Reducing health effects by decreasing sulfate (major component of PM2.5)

Dis-advantage Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing sulfate

BC&PM2.5 reduction

Advantage Reducing health effects by reducing BC and PM2.5 Reducing climate effects by reducing BC

Dis-advantage Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing OC due to biomass burning.

NMVOC reduction

Advantage Reducing reginal tropospheric O3 and thus reducing climate effects. Reducing health effects by decreasing SOA (Secondary Organic Aerosol)

(major component of PM2.5).

Dis-advantage Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing SOA

NOxreduction

Advantage Reducing reginal tropospheric O3 and thus reducing health effects. Reducing health effects by decreasing nitrate (major component of PM2.5)

Dis-advantage Increasing atmospheric CH4 concentration and thus warming effects Reducing regional cooling effects by decreasing nitrate

CO reduction

Advantage Reducing reginal tropospheric O3 and thus reducing health effects. Reducing atmospheric CH4 concentration by reducing NOx at the same time

Dis-advantage No disadvantage

If reducing only NOx, atmospheric CH4 concentration will increase.But if reducing NOx and CO at the same time, atmospheric CH4concentration will not increase

Seeking for combination of NOx and CO reduction, Balancing SO2 and BC reductionat the same time of decarbonization toward 2℃

Page 6: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

Scenario Settings- Seeking for balance of GHGs, SLCPs, air pollutants-

5

Scenario Overview

Reference (=SSP2) Reference scenario that future mitigation polices & technologies are in the current trends

EoP Max 100 % end-of-pipe diffusion across the world by 2050 for SO2, NOx, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10

EoP Mid 100% EoP diffusion in developed countries & 50% EoP diffusion in developing courtiers by 2050 for SO2, NOx, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10

2D-EoPmax-RES Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables rather than fossil fuel with CCS

2D-EoPmid-RES Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures /energy shift to renewables rather than fossil fuel with CCS

2D-EoPmid-CCS Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures /energy shift to coal & biomass power with CCS rather than renewables

2D-EoPmax-RESBLD Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050

2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures /energy shift to coal & biomass power with CCS / 100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050

2D-EoPmax-RESTRT Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050

2D-EoPmid-RESTRT Decarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050

2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRTDecarbonization toward 2℃ target / maximum EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050/ nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050

2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRTDecarbonization toward 2℃ target / medium EoP measures / energy shift to renewables /100% electrification in building sector across the world by 2050/ nearly 100% EV in passenger transport sector across the world by 2050

Page 7: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

6

Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -

EDGER4.2 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAPRef

2D-EoPmid-CCS2D-EoPmax-RES 2D-EoPmid-RES

2D-EoPmax-RESTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESTRT

2D-EoPmax-RESBLD2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD

2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT

Equivalent to 2℃decarbonization scenarios

There are various different combinations of decarbonization measures which can achieve the similar CO2 emission pathways equivalent to 2 degree target.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19801990200020102020203020402050

CO2

Emis

sion

(PgC

O2)

Similar CO2 emissions pathways under different combinations of decarbonization measures

Global CO2 emission level achieving 2℃ is lower than the level in 1980s

Page 8: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990200020102020203020402050

NO

x Em

issi

on (T

gNO

x)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

BC E

mis

sion

(TgB

C)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990200020102020203020402050

CH4

Emis

sion

(TgC

H 4)

020406080

100120140160

1990200020102020203020402050

SO2

Emis

sion

(TgS

O2)

7

Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -

EDGER4.2 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAPRef

2D-EoPmid-CCS2D-EoPmax-RES 2D-EoPmid-RES

2D-EoPmax-RESTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESTRT

2D-EoPmax-RESBLD2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD

2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT

Equivalent to 2℃ decarbonization

Emissions pathways of SLCPs and air pollutants are different due to combinations of low-carbon and end-of-pipe measures, even if CO2 emission pathways equivalent to 2℃ are similar.

0

50

100

150

200

1990200020102020203020402050

VOC

Emis

sion

(TgV

OC)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990200020102020203020402050

CO E

mis

sion

(TgC

O)

Almost same

CH4 pathways are almost the same(because major sources are agriculture and waste sectors)

Page 9: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

8

Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -

100% electrification in building sector is effective for reducing BC, PM2.5 drastically and CO 100% EV in passenger transport is effective for reducing NMVOC largely and NOx Coal for power and industry plants with CCS has emission rebounds for SO2 and NOx

8

2D-EoPmid-CCS

2D-EoPmid-RES

2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD

2D-EoPmid-RESTRT

020406080

100120140160

1990200020102020203020402050

SO2

Emis

sion

(TgS

O2)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990200020102020203020402050

NO

x Em

issi

on (T

gNO

x)

Effects of 100% EV in passenger transport sector, by 2050

Effects of 100% electrificationin building sector, by 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

BC E

mis

sion

(TgB

C)

0

50

100

150

200

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

VOC

Emis

sion

(TgV

OC)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990200020102020203020402050

CO E

mis

sion

(TgC

O)

Effects of CCS coal power plant rather than RES promotion

EDGER4.2 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAPRef

Page 10: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

BC E

mis

sion

(TgB

C)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990200020102020203020402050

CO E

mis

sion

(TgC

O)

0

50

100

150

200

1990200020102020203020402050

VOC

Emis

sion

(TgV

OC)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990200020102020203020402050

NO

x Em

issi

on (T

gNO

x)

020406080

100120140160

1990200020102020203020402050

SO2

Emis

sion

(TgS

O2)

9

Global Emissions Pathways of CO2, SLCPs, Air Pollutants- compared to emission inventory (EDGER, HTAP) & emissions pathways of RCP8.5, RCP2.6 -

After enhancing renewables, effects of diffusing End-of-Pipe measures are very limited Combinations of renewables with 100% electrification in building and transport sector have

effective for drastically reducing BC, PM2.5 and largely reducing NMVOC and CO.

9

Effects of 100% EV in passenger transport sector, by 2050

Effects of 100% electrificationin building sector, by 2050

Effects of 100% EoP by 2050

2D-EoPmax-RES

2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT

2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT

2D-EoPmid-RESEffects of 100% EoP by 2050

EDGER4.2 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 HTAPRef

Page 11: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

Diagnosis of Emissions Pathways Directions- reduction ratio among GHGs, SLCPs and Air pollutions -

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

BC e

mis

sion

[val

ue in

201

0 =

1]

SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

CO2

emis

sion

[val

ue in

201

0 =

1]

SO2 emission [value in 2010 =1]

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

CO e

mis

sion

[val

ue in

201

0 =

1]

NOx emission [value in 2010 =1]

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

VOC

emis

sion

[val

ue in

201

0 =

1]

NOx emission [value in 2010 =1]

Need to seek for balancing health benefits (e.g. reducing PM2.5, BC, SO2, NOx), climate benefits (e.g. reducing CO2, BC, CH4), and climate disadvantage (e.g. reducing OC, SO2, NOx, VOC).

10

2D-EoPmid-CCS2D-EoPmax-RES 2D-EoPmid-RES

2D-EoPmax-RESTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESTRT

2D-EoPmax-RESBLD2D-EoPmid-CCSBLD

2D-EoPmax-RESBLDTRT 2D-EoPmid-RESBLDTRT

Ref

Page 12: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

Emissions under decarbonization and air quality control - Example in India -

Decarbonization measures provide SO2 emission abatement as a co-benefit. Decarbonization measures have a impact on BC reductions, but the amount of the BC reduction

is limited, because the increase of biomass is cheaper than electrification in building sector. Diffusion of drastic End-of-Pipe measures have large impacts on reducing SO2

11Both countermeasures

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010

Scen

ario

RF

Scen

ario

AP

Scen

ario

CP

Scen

ario

CP-A

P

2050

Emiss

ion

[Mto

n]

CO2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2010

Scen

ario

RF

Scen

ario

AP

Scen

ario

CP

Scen

ario

CP-A

P

2050

Other

Transport

Buildings

Industry

Energy

BC

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2010

Scen

ario

RF

Scen

ario

AP

Scen

ario

CP

Scen

ario

CP-A

P

2050

SO2Co-benefit of Decarbonizationon Air quality Co-benefit

of Decarbonizationon Air quality,but limited

ReferenceOnly Air quality

controls

Only Low carbonactions

Source) Hirayama, et al (2017), Analysis on Ancillary Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions on Air Pollutants and SLCP: Case study in India, Environmental Systems Research

Page 13: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

Mitigation Costs of decarbonization and air quality control - Example in India -

12

the cost of diffusing air pollution control measures can be saved by introducing decarbonization measures, which can be regarded as “cost co-benefits”.

0

3.0 3.0

0.61

0

0.38

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

ScenarioAP

ScenarioCP

ScenarioCP-AP

Total costs[%

of Cum

ulative GD

P]

Cum

ulat

ive

cost

(201

0-20

50)

[Tril

lion

USD

]

Cost for Climate change mitigationCost for Air pollution controlTotal Costs (% of Cumulative GDP)

Cost co-benefits for end-of-pipe given by introducing low carbon actions

adopt both of low carbon measures and end-op-pipe measures

adopt only end-op-pipe measures

Source) Hirayama, et al (2017), Analysis on Ancillary Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions on Air Pollutants and SLCP: Case study in India, Environmental Systems Research

Page 14: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

Mitigation Costs of achieving INDC target- Example of residential sector in 31 provincial analysis in China -

Emission profiles of CO2, BC, PM2.5 and SO2, and energy compositions of coal, biomass, gas, heat and electricity are largely different among urban / rural, depend on large / small provinces.

Carbon prices in residential sector range from 44 – 58 US$/tCO2 for achieving the INDC target

13Source) Xing R et al. (2017), Achieving China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: Role of the Residential Sector, Journal of Cleaner Production, doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.11.114

Regional gas emissions

438

529

604

836

10 20 30 40 44 50 5860 70 80 90 100

Carbon tax (US$)

60% reduction

65% reductionEm

issio

n (M

t-CO

2)

Beijing-urbanBeijing-rural

0

10000

20000

30000

0

1000

2000

3000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

0

1000

2000

3000

2010 2020 2030

GasElectricityTraditional biomassCoal Heat Oil products

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

0

1

2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

50

100

0

5

10

15

20

0

20

40

60

0

5

10

15

CO2 BC PM2.5 SO2

Shanghai-urbanShanghai-rural

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

0

5

10

15

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

1

2

3

0

10

20

30

40

FIXREF

INDC

Emiss

ion

(Kt)

Year

Carbon price in residential sector to achieve INDC

Page 15: GHGs, SLCPs, Air Pollutants Mitigation Scenarios in Asia ......BC Emission (TgBC) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990200020102020203020402050 CH 4 Emission (TgCH 4) 0 20 40 60 80 100

Asia-Pacific Integrated Modelhttp://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html

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