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Giant Oil Fields of the World

Presentation

AIM Industrial Contact Day

Monday 23rd May 2005

Fredrik RobeliusM.Sc. Petroleum Engineering (almost)

M.Sc. Engineering Physics

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Introduction

Is Peak Oil here now

Or have we heard all this before???

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

1000b/d

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

1,600,000,000

1000b

Prod 1955-2002

Prod 2003-2020 Forecast

cum prod -2002

cum prod 2002-2020 Forecast

Peak oil

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0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

USD

ollar

Oil Price in US$ 2003

Oil Crisis in relation to oil price

1) Nationalization ofAnglo-Iranian 1951

2) Suez crisis1956

3) Six day war 1967

4) Yom Kippur war1973

5) Pricepanic1979-81

6) UN Iraq embargo1990

7) War in Iraq2003

Source: BP Statistical Review

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Common factors:

The oil did not

reach the market

Media and some

governments:We are runningout of oil!

Geographic

Source: CIA World Fact Book

Today - Same old story again?

or is the oil price a bad parameter?

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Definitions

Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (URR)

cumulative production plus the estimatedremaining reserves

Gb Giga barrel = 109 barrels = billion barrels

= 0.159x109 m3 =159 million m3

Giant Oil Field an oilfield with estimated

ultimate recoverable oil of more than 500million barrels (>0.5 Gb)

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The Important Parameter Giant Fields

Giant fields compared to other fields with respect to:

Klla: AAPG OGJ Simmons & Com an International

Giant Oil Fields~1 %

Other Oil Fields~99 %

Number of fields

URR of the GiantOil Fields

>50%

URR from otheroil fields

< 50%

URR

Production from

the 100 largestgiants50%

Daily Production

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Top 18 Giant Fields

Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA

Field Name Country Discovery

year

Range of

URR[GB]

Ghawar Saudi Arabia 1948 66-100

Burgan Greater Kuwait 1938 32-60

Safaniya Saudi Arabia 1951 21-36

Bolivar Coastal Venezuela 1917 14-36

Berri Saudi Arabia 1964 10-25

Rumalia N&S Iraq 1953 22

Zakum Abu Dhabi 1964 17-21

Cantarell Complex Mexico 1976 11-20

Manifa Saudi Arabia 1957 17

Kirkuk Iraq 1927 16

Gashsaran Iran 1928 12-15

Abqaiq Saudi Arabia 1941 10-15

Ahwaz Iran 1958 13-15

Marun Iran 1963 12-14

Samotlor Russia 1961 6-14

Agha Jari Iran 1937 6-14Zuluf Saudi Arabia 1965 12-14

Prudhoe Bay Alaska 1969 13

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Where are the giant fields?

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Discovery Trends of Giant Fields

Source: AAPG, UHDSG

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

1850-1899 1900-1909 1910-1919 1920-1929 1930-1939 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999

Gb&Number

Discovered RecoverableReserves in Giant Fields [Gb]

Number of Giant Oil Fields

Discovered

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Discovery of Giant Fields

Field Country DiscoveryYear

UltimateRecoverable

Reserves [Gb]

Kashagan Kazakhstan 2000 7-9

Azadegan Iran 1999 6-9

Roncador Brazil 1996 2.9

Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia 1991 1.6

Sihil Mexico 1999 1.4

Ourhoud Algeria 1994 1.2

Thunder Horse US GoM 1999 1-1.5

35 giant oil fields discovered during last decade

None of the fields will have a production

capability above 1,000,000 b/d The largest fields discovered the last decade:

Source: AAPG, OGJ

C i f b f fi ld

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Comparison of number of fieldsand their URR

Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA

Field Name Country Discoveryyear

Range ofURR[GB]

Ghawar Saudi Arabia 1948 66-100

Burgan Greater Kuwait 1938 32-60

Safaniya Saudi Arabia 1951 21-36

Bolivar Coastal Venezuela 1917 14-36

Berri Saudi Arabia 1964 10-25

Rumalia N&S Iraq 1953 22Zakum Abu Dhabi 1964 17-21

Cantarell Complex Mexico 1976 11-20

Manifa Saudi Arabia 1957 17

Kirkuk Iraq 1927 16

Gashsaran Iran 1928 12-15

Abqaiq Saudi Arabia 1941 10-15

Ahwaz Iran 1958 13-15

Marun Iran 1963 12-14

Samotlor Russia 1961 6-14Agha Jari Iran 1937 6-14

Zuluf Saudi Arabia 1965 12-14

Prudhoe Bay Alaska 1969 13

Field Country DiscoveryYear

UltimateRecoverabl

Reserves [G

Kashagan Kazakhstan 2000 7-9

Azadegan Iran 1999 6-9

Roncador Brazil 1996 2.9

Cusiana/Cupiagua Colombia 1991 1.6

Sihil Mexico 1999 1.4

Ourhoud Algeria 1994 1.2Thunder Horse US GoM 1999 1-1.5

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Production from Cusiana/Cupiagua

Source: AAPG, OGJ

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1991 1996 2001

DailyProd

(b/d)

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000

900,000,000

CumP

rod(b)

Daily Prod

Cum Prod

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Production from Cantarell

Source: AAPG, OGJ

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

DailyPro

d(b/d)

0

2,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

12,000,000,000

CumP

ro

d(b)

Daily Prod

Cum Prod

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Oil Production from Mexico andtheir Giant Oil Fields

Source: OGJ, AAPG, PEMEX, UHDS

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 200

DailyProduc

tion(b/d)

Mexico Oil Production

Mexico Giant Fields Production

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Oil Production from Norway andtheir Giant Oil Fields

Source: NPD

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

DailyProduction(b/d)

Norway Total

Norway Giants

Oil P d i f S di A bi

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Oil Production from Saudi Arabiaand Ghawar Oil Field

Source: OGJ, AAPG, Saudi Aramco, UHDSG

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

DailyProduction(b/d)

Saudi Oil Production

Ghawar Production

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Conclusion

20 years ago, 15 fields had the capacity toproduce more than 1,000,000 b/d. Today

only four field canproduce that much:

Ghawar (Saudi Arabia), 1948

Kirkuk (Iraq), 1938 Burgan Greater (Kuwait), 1927

Cantarell (Mexico), 1976

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Conclusion

Producing regions will have a peak The Middle East is a key factor

The giants are getting smaller, both to size andnumber

When will the peak be?

It depends on the:demand for oil, future exploration and the

decline of the giantsMy guess/prediction is around 2010