Give Us This Day Give Us This Day our Daily our Daily BreadthBreadth

Greg J. DuncanGreg J. Duncan

Department of EducationDepartment of Education

University of California, IrvineUniversity of California, Irvine

Learning from the Learning from the masters:masters:

Tom Juster

Jim Morgan

Jeanne Brooks-Gunn

““The economist The economist who is only an who is only an economist is likely economist is likely to become a to become a nuisance if not a nuisance if not a positive danger.”positive danger.”

-- Frederick von Frederick von Hayek Hayek

Kagel et al., 1975Kagel et al., 1975

Rat demand curve for root Rat demand curve for root beer beer

I say: “noncognitive I say: “noncognitive skill”skill”

You You feel:feel:

To create is to To create is to recombinerecombine

-- Francois Jacob Francois Jacob

Parallel playParallel play

Associative Associative playplay

CooperativeCooperativeplayplay

A Mediated Model of Family A Mediated Model of Family PovertyPoverty

Child Poverty

Purchased inputs

Cognitive stimulation in the home

Type and quality of child care

Quality of schools and neighborhood

Family processes

Maternal mental health

Parenting

Child/Adolescent outcomes

Attainment

Socioemotional behavior

Executive function

Inco

me

path

way

Maternal stress pathway

Increase in completed schooling associated Increase in completed schooling associated with a $3,000 annual increase in incomewith a $3,000 annual increase in income

Duncan, Brooks-Gunn, Yeung and Smith, 1998

Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated with a $3,000 annual increase in incomewith a $3,000 annual increase in income

Duncan, Ziol-Guest & Kalil, 2010

Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated Increase in age 25-37 earnings associated with a $3,000 annual increase in incomewith a $3,000 annual increase in income

Duncan, Ziol-Guest & Kalil, 2010

Adult earnings (+) p<.05

Regression-adjusted associations Regression-adjusted associations with early family incomewith early family income

Adult obesity (-) p<.05

Adult hypertension (-)

p<.05

Adult arthritis (-) p<.05

Adult work hours (+)

p<.01

Arrests ns

Non-marital birth ns

Duncan, Ziol-Guest & Kalil, 2010

A Mediated Model of Family A Mediated Model of Family PovertyPoverty

Childhood

Poverty

Purchased inputs

Parenting

Child/Adolescent outcomes

Attainment

Socioemotional behavior

Executive function

A Mediated Model of Family A Mediated Model of Family PovertyPoverty

Early poverty

Early brain development

Adult outcomes

Ability to sustain full time careers

Health

Stress and immune functionEarly

fetal/child stress

The Child

Microsystem

Mesosystem

Exosystem

Macrosystem

Bronfenbrenner, 1979

҉< Family

Peers <

҉< Community

Mass media <

Political system

<

҉< Culture

҉< Economy҉< Economy҉< Policy

҉< Policy

High and low family incomes, 1947-High and low family incomes, 1947-20082008

Achievement gaps by race and income, by birth Achievement gaps by race and income, by birth yearyear

Income gap based on various national surveys

EITC payments for family EITC payments for family with 2+ childrenwith 2+ children

Earned income

1993

1996

Effects of EITC expansion on children’s Effects of EITC expansion on children’s test scores and mothers’ healthtest scores and mothers’ health

Dahl and Lochner, 2009; Evans and Garthwaite, 2009

ChildrenMothers

CRP ≥ 0.3 mg/Dl

# bad mental health days

Unbiased

estimationUnbiased

causal

estimation

Measurement quality

Statistical

technique de

jour

The case for The case for breadthbreadth

Ideas having sex with Ideas having sex with other ideas…other ideas…

The history of the The history of the modern world is a modern world is a history of ideas history of ideas meeting, mixing, meeting, mixing, mating and mutatingmating and mutating

Matt Ridley, 2010 The Rational Optimist

2012 Theme meetings 2012 Theme meetings in Tampa Bayin Tampa Bay

February 9-11, 2012

•Developmental methodology

•Positive development

October 18-20, 2012

•Emerging adulthood

To create is to To create is to recombinerecombine

-- Francois Jacob Francois Jacob