Top Line Trend by Glen Hiemstra Invisible Computing Imagine that as you dress one morning, you go to your dresser drawer for socks. The drawer is empty and you remember that you've been meaning to purchase some more. Before heading to the laundry room to find a pair, looking nowhere in panicular you say aloud, "I need w order some socks. " A voice (not your spouse) says, "OK, how many and of what kind?" You say, "Make it three pair, brown, black and blue, same brand and size as last time." After a shon pause, the voice says, "The order has been placed, and the socks will arrive in two days." When this scenario is not imaginary but part of your everyday life you will know that we have arrived fully in the world of invisible computing. By the time we get there, it is possible you won't speak the instructions at all, but simply think them, and they will be done. This is the ultimate level of invisible computing, when the complex tasks we now associate with computers simply disappear into the woodwork. Between here and there will be many steps, and we can see that we have taken quite a few of them already. It was the Physicist Michio Kaku, in his book Visions, How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century (1998), who said it best ten years ago: "In the next 20 years PC's will be replaced by millions of tiny intelligent systems embedded in our clothes, jewelry, cars, furniture, and walls. They will recognize voice commands and carry out simple wishes. They will cost less than a penny, less than scrap paper, so companies which do not put chips [intelligence] in all their products will be at a severe disadvantage." In the same year, Don Norman was coining the term "invisible computing" in his book with the same title. And that work harkened back to the original use of the terms "invisible" and "computing" by Mark Weiser, Chief Technology Officer of the famous PARC computer science research lab in the 90's. In 1991 Weiser had envisioned "ubiquitous computing" and described personal scenarios similar to the one that begins this anicle. Weiser believed that over time computing ought w disappear inw the fabric of our lives, to be quiet, invisible, and even in some ways unconscious. Norman, on the other hand, noticed how complex our computing tools tended to be, and envisioned a future in which we deconstruct complex computing devices inw millions, even trillions of tiny special function transistors, sensors, chips and communication devices, and embed them in everything so that simple functions could be carried out simply. This vision is well on the way w being realized. You can see this in your everyday life of course, when you count up the amazing number of both specialized and broad purpose continued on page 72 Solutions 2 Control Foam without Defoamers? Coolsurf™ non-ionic multifunctional surfactants help control foam. CoolsurfT M special amides are intrinsically low foam. And resolve immediate foaming problems with liquid or tablet form silicon and silicon-free defoamers from Additives International. Solutions 2 Additives International (AI) has over 150 solutions ready to meet your compounding needs. And, If we don't have a solution that works for you, we'll custom formulate one. That's Solutions 2 . Because we're a primary manufacturer of additives, AI solutions are competitively priced, ready to ship in a variety of packaging. If your current additives suppliers aren't paying attention to your needs, Get Solutions 2 working for you. Call 800-708-9657, or online at www.additivesinternational.com ISO 9001-2000 ISO 14001 Vol. 58 No.9· September 2008 • Compoundings 11
Transcript
Top Line
Trend by Glen Hiemstra
Invisible Computing
Imagine that as you dress one morning, you go to your
dresser drawer for socks. The drawer is empty and you
remember that you've been meaning to purchase some more.
Before heading to the laundry room to find a pair, looking
nowhere in panicular you say aloud, "I need w order some
socks. "
A voice (not your spouse) says, "OK, how many and of what
kind?"
You say, "Make it three pair, brown, black and blue, same
brand and size as last time."
After a shon pause, the voice says, "The order has been
placed, and the socks will arrive in two days."
When this scenario is not imaginary but part of your
everyday life you will know that we have arrived fully in the
world of invisible computing. By the time we get there, it is
possible you won't speak the instructions at all, but simply
think them, and they will be done.
This is the ultimate level of invisible computing, when
the complex tasks we now associate with computers simply
disappear into the woodwork. Between here and there will be
many steps, and we can see that we have taken quite a few of
them already.
It was the Physicist Michio Kaku, in his book Visions, How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century (1998), who said it
best ten years ago:
"In the next 20 years PC's will be replaced by millions of tiny intelligent systems embedded in our clothes, jewelry, cars, furniture, and walls. They will recognize voice commands and carry out simple wishes. They will cost less than a penny, less than scrap paper, so companies which do not put chips [intelligence] in all their products will be at a severe disadvantage."
In the same year, Don Norman was coining the term
"invisible computing" in his book with the same title. And
that work harkened back to the original use of the terms
"invisible" and "computing" by Mark Weiser, Chief Technology
Officer of the famous PARC computer science research lab
in the 90's. In 1991 Weiser had envisioned "ubiquitous
computing" and described personal scenarios similar to the
one that begins this anicle.
Weiser believed that over time computing ought w disappear inw the fabric of our lives, to be quiet, invisible,
and even in some ways unconscious. Norman, on the other
hand, noticed how complex our computing tools tended to
be, and envisioned a future in which we deconstruct complex
computing devices inw millions, even trillions of tiny special
function transistors, sensors, chips and communication
devices, and embed them in everything so that simple
functions could be carried out simply.
This vision is well on the way w being realized. You can
see this in your everyday life of course, when you count up
the amazing number of both specialized and broad purpose
continued on page 72
Solutions2 Control Foam without Defoamers?
Coolsurf™ non-ionic multifunctional surfactants help control foam.
CoolsurfTM special amides are intrinsically low foam.
And resolve immediate foaming problems with liquid or tablet form silicon and silicon-free
defoamers from Additives International.
Solutions2 Additives International (AI) has over 150 solutions ready to meet
your compounding needs. And, If we don't have a solution that
works for you, we'll custom formulate one. That's Solutions2 . Because we're a primary manufacturer of additives, AI solutions
are competitively priced, ready to ship in a variety of packaging.
If your current additives suppliers aren't paying attention to your
needs, Get Solutions2 working for you. Call 800-708-9657,
or online at
www.additivesinternational.com
ISO 9001-2000
ISO 14001
Vol. 58 No.9· September 2008 • Compoundings 11
TapLin Trend continued from page 77
computing devices you own but may not notice - your laptop
and phone of course, but also your toaster and microwave
and washing machine, not to mention your car and DVR and
various digital cameras. The list becomes quite endless.
It may become possible hat lubricants themselves
will contain sensor, within the product.
In the world of products and lubricants, invisible computing
is, shall we say, increasingly visible. The On-Star advanced
automatic crash notification system is an example. By
extending the ability of on-board sensors that detect a crash
and deploy airbags to then instantly notify On-Star of the
crash and to help pinpoint the location, emergency response
times can be cut substantially. Eventually all GPS-enabled
phones or navigation systems could be set to communicate
automatically with auto-based computers and sensors and
to send out similar distress signals when needed, making
all accidents instantly known to first responders. All of this
simply becomes a part of our environment, requiring no
conscious intervention except perhaps a "set-up" when new
equipment is purchased.
It is vital for lubricated systems to know and communicate
their current status to operators. Sensors that know lubricant
levels and temperature have been standard for a long time.
More recently, as sensor technology has miniaturized and
online and real-time communications have become possible,
sensors have extended their capability. For example, sensors
now can track and communicate real-time data regarding
level, temperature, moisture levels, the amount of wear-debris
present and so on.
As nano-sensors now in development become available in
the next decade and beyond, it may become possible - or
even expected - that lubricants themselves will contain
sensors within the product. Such sensors may communicate
with low-power transmitters in the equipment to provide fine
grained analyses of lubricant performance and condition.
12 Compoundings. September 2008 • Vol. 58 NO.9
It is even possible that we humans will interact with the
information flOWing from sensors and other more sophisti
cated invisible computers via direct brain interfaces, rather
than with gauges, screens or sounds. Brain-computer inter
faces with some impressive performance characteristics are
coming onto the market even now. Using a variety of sensors
to pick up brain activity, facial expression, eye movement and
even subtle mental changes associated with intuition, it is
becoming possible to communicate With and control machine
responses.
Commercial products are aimed mostly at the gaming
environment to begin with, but the long-term implications are
impressive. Miguel Nicolelis, a professor of neuroscience at
Duke University Medical Center, summarizes the potential:
"One day, you could be sitting in an office and
controlling a device from across the room - or in
another building. And it's not just flicking a switch.
It could be a nanotool that's mOVing through a tiny
environment, and you can control it and see what it's
seeing." •
FURTl-1ER READING
Visions: How Science will Revolutionize the 27st Century. Michio Kaku. New York: Anchor, 1998.
Invisible Computing. Don Norman. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1999.
"The Computer for the 21st Century." Mark Wieser. Published in Scientilic American 1991. Available at: http://www.ubiq.com/hypertext/weiser/SciAmDraft3.html
Miguel Nicolelis quotation in ''The Future of Mind (antral, Robot-Monkey Trials Are Just a Start." Eric Sofge. Popular Mechanics, July 7, 2008. http://www popu la rmec ha nics .com/sc ience/resea rch/4272 246.htm17page=1
"GM Will Offer Advance Automatic Crash Notilication." http://wwwroadandtravel. com/newsworthylNewsworthy2002/gmonstar.htm
"The Law of Accelerating Returns." Ray Kurzweil. http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.htmI 7pri ntab1e=1
Hiemstra is the author ofTurning the Future into Revenue and founder ofFuturist.com. He was a featured speaker at ILMA's 2008 Management Forum and has consulted with a wide variety ofenterprises for two decades, assisting them in planning for the long-term future. He can be reached at www.futurist.com.
