+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share...

Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share...

Date post: 24-Aug-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 3 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
36
Glencore Preliminary Results 2012 5 March 2013
Transcript
Page 1: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

Glencore Preliminary Results 2012 5 March 2013

Page 2: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 1

Ivan Glasenberg

Chief Executive Officer

Page 3: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 2

2012 highlights

Resilient EBIT performance, highlighting robustness of Glencore’s marketing business and industrial

assets

– Adjusted EBIT(1) down 17% to $4.5bn

• Marketing Adjusted EBIT up 11%, with strong performance in Metals and Agriculture

• Adjusted EBIT in consolidated Industrial activities down 27%(2), compares favourably to peers

Sector-leading growth pipeline remains overall on time and on budget

Continued growth of operating cash flow, up 17% to $4.1bn(3)

Strong balance sheet with close to $9bn committed liquidity(4)

– FFO to Net debt at 35.9% (adjusted for Viterra acquisition) from 27.2% in 2011

Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%)

Xstrata and Viterra transactions represent major strategic advances(5)

Continued value-accretive bolt-on acquisitions Notes: (1) Pre other significant items. (2) Excluding Xstrata contribution. (3) Funds from operations. (4) Cash and committed undrawn credit facilities. (5) Investors’ attention is drawn to the fact that the completion of the merger with Xstrata remains conditional upon the receipt of the outstanding regulatory approval in China; completion of the Xstrata court

process and Glencore giving effect to the commitments required by the European Commission. The merger long stop date has been extended to 16 April 2013, with the consent of Xstrata and the Panel.

Page 4: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Robust 2012 financial and operating performance

Marketing Marketing activities delivered improved results in 2012, generating adjusted EBIT of $2.1bn, an increase of 11% compared to 2011

Strong performance despite lower prices across all base metals and coal - driven by volume growth and generally healthy physical premia

Industrial Adjusted EBIT from industrial activities down 27%(1) – compares favourably with diversified miner peer group – reflects continuing delivery on pipeline of mainly brownfield expansion – reflects focus on cost control and capital efficient growth philosophy

2012 saw the peak of the current capex programme

3

(25%)

(52%) (54%)

(40%)

Glencore (includingstake in Xstrata)

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3

Net Income change 2012 vs 2011(2) (%)

Notes: (1) Excluding stake in Xstrata. (2) Underlying net income before exceptional items.

Page 5: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

(27%)

(46%)(44%)

(39%)

Glencore (excluding stake in Xstrata)

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3

(340)

(1,730)

(1,160)(1,110)

Glencore (excluding stake in Xstrata)

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3

2012 relative operating performance – in controlled industrial activities

4

EBIT margin change 2012 vs 2011 (bps)

Absolute EBIT change 2012 vs 2011 (%)

Glencore’s relative EBIT performance arises from quality of assets, diversified commodity mix and high margin growth

Page 6: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2012A 2014E 2016E

Other assets Kazzinc Katanga Mopani Mutanda Prodeco South Africa coal Oil E&P

Organic growth – Glencore’s own production

Cu equivalent production volume

(in thousand tonnes, 100% basis)

Note: Cu conversion based on spot prices on 26 February 2013.

5

2014E – 2016E CAGR: 3.6%

2012A – 2014E CAGR: 19.3%

2012A – 2016E CAGR: 11.2%

Kazzinc Katanga Mopani Mutanda Prodeco South Africa coal Oil E&P

Other assets

Page 7: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 6

Steven Kalmin

Chief Financial Officer

Page 8: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Key financial highlights

Notes: (1) Adjusted EBITDA is revenue less cost of goods sold, less selling and administrative expenses, plus share of income from associates and joint controlled entities, plus dividend income, plus depreciation and amortisation. (2) Adjusted EBIT is Adjusted EBITDA less depreciation and amortisation. (3) Pre significant items. (4) FFO is Operating cash flow before working capital changes less net interest paid, less tax paid, plus dividends received from associates.

7

US$ m 2012 2011 % change

Revenue 214,436 186,152 15%

Adjusted EBITDA (1) (3) 5,943 6,464 (8%)

Adjusted EBIT (2) (3) 4,470 5,398 (17%)

Net income attributable to equity holders (3) 3,060 4,060 (25%)

Statutory net income attributable to equity holders 1,004 4,048 (75%)

Funds from operations (FFO) (4) 4,115 3,522 17%

Adjusted for Viterra acquisition 2012 2011 % change

Equity attributable to equity holders (US$ m) 31,266 29,265 7%

Net debt (US$ m) 11,457 15,416 12,938 19%

FFO to Net debt (%) 35.9% 26.7% 27.2%

Net debt / Adjusted EBITDA 1.93x 2.59x 2.00x

Page 9: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

1,242 1,363

697 435

(8)

371

(39)(20)

1,911

(800)

0

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000

2011 2012

2,130

Adjusted EBIT 2012 vs 2011 (US$ m)

8

Strong underlying profitability, with Adjusted EBIT up 11% over 2011, highlighting strength and resilience of Glencore’s diversified and integrated business model

Metals and minerals

Improved results generating Adjusted EBIT of $1,363m, 10% higher than 2011

Performance driven by volume growth and healthy physical premia reflecting continued tight supply/demand conditions

Energy products

Reported Adjusted EBIT of $435m in 2012, weaker than prior year due to reduced volatility and continued weak freight markets and generally fewer arbitrage opportunities

Weak price environment for coal primarily as a result of US shale gas substitution

Agricultural products

Normalisation of performance with Adjusted EBIT of $371m – 2011 performance affected by cotton losses

2013 will see benefits of consolidation and integration of Viterra

11%

2012 financial performance – Marketing activities

Agriculture Metals and Minerals Energy Corporate

Page 10: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Key industrial growth projects continued to deliver overall volume improvement and remain on time and within budget

Decline in Industrial Adjusted EBIT owing primarily to weaker average period-on-period commodity prices

Metals and minerals

Decline in Adjusted EBIT to $708m, driven by weaker average commodity prices:

- Nickel, zinc and copper prices, down 23%, 11% and 10% respectively versus 2011

Overall volume growth

Energy products

Adjusted EBIT of $594m, up 58% versus 2011, driven by full year of oil production at the Aseng field and growth in South African coal production

Spot coal prices significantly down year-on-year

Agricultural products

2012 Industrial EBIT improved on 2011, reflecting higher processing volumes

9

2012 financial performance – Industrial activities

Agriculture Metals and Minerals Energy Corporate Corporate (XTA)

1,357

708

375

594

1,893

1,174

(10)(39)(99) (126)

(800)

0

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000

2011 2012

3,487

2,340

(33%)

Adjusted EBIT 2012 vs 2011 (US$ m)

Page 11: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 10

2012 Adjusted EBIT bridge for industrial activities

3,487

(537)

807

(237)

61

(352) (68)

(821)2,340

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2011 Adj. EBIT Price Volume Cost FX D&A Other AssociateIncome

2012 Adj. EBIT

(US$ m)

Page 12: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Robust balance sheet(1)

Robust balance sheet with $9bn of committed liquidity

headroom as at 31 December 2012

– Current capital employed ($23.9bn) plus liquid stakes in

listed associates(3) covers 115% of total gross debt

Strong cashflow coverage ratios:

– FFO to Net debt at 35.9%(2)

– Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA at 1.93x vs. 2.00x in 2011(2)

S&P and Moody’s investment grade credit ratings targeted:

following the Viterra acquisition, the Xstrata merger

shareholder approval and assumed completion thereof, the

enlarged Group’s credit ratings were confirmed as Baa2

(stable) from Moody’s and BBB (stable) from S&P

Average VaR (1 day 95%) of $40m, representing 0.1% of

shareholders’ equity

Notes: (1) All definitions as per Preliminary results release 2012. (2) Adjusted for Viterra acquisition (3) At book carrying value

11

2012 2011

Gross debt $35.5bn $28.1bn

Net funding $32.7bn $26.7bn

Net debt(2) $11.5bn $12.9bn

FFO to Net debt(2) 35.9% 27.2%

Net debt(2) to Adjusted EBITDA 1.93x 2.00x

Adjusted EBITDA to net interest 6.13x 7.63x

Page 13: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 12

DRC Copper

Telis Mistakidis Co-Director of Zinc, Copper and Lead

Page 14: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

DRC Copper – 2012 in perspective

13

Power a major issue

Mutanda expansion to 200ktpa on track

– Ownership increased to 60%

– Put / call option for additional 20% in

December 2013 (when exercised

ownership of 80%)

Katanga continues the plant refurbishment

program to replace old plant and machinery

with new – concentrator, SX and refinery

Mutanda

Katanga

Page 15: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

DRC power situation (1/2)

14

Glencore investing $320m (in the form of loans to SNEL) in generation, transmission and distribution

Project makes available a total of 450 MW (345 MW new power generation and 105 MW transmission) of power allocation by end of 2015

– Glencore requires 400 MW

– Surplus available to SNEL

MW 2012 2013E

Katanga province demand (650) (683)

Katanga province generation 340 340

INGA supply – pre World Bank converter and synchronous condenser 150 -

INGA supply – post World Bank converter and synchronous condenser - 220

Zambian supply 100 100

Nzilo supply – Glencore project - 25

Surplus / (Deficit) (60) 2

Page 16: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

DRC power situation (2/2)

15

Investment

$95m investment in 345 MW of generation (3 turbines at Inga and Nzilo)

$110m investment in transformers (Inga and Kolwezi)

$115m investment in transmission and associated infrastructure

Timeline for power generation

25 MW – Q4 2013

160 MW – Q4 2014

160 MW – Q4 2015

Synchronous condenser after explosion

New synchronous condenser

Page 17: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Mutanda expansion on track

16

87kt of copper production in 2012

18 days lost production due to power

2012 peak power 45 MW; 2013E peak power 78 MW

Expansion update

– 6 of 7 EW lines operating

– EW 7 – March 2013

– New Mill – August 2013 (matches front end to EW

capacity)

Annualised 200ktpa of cathode by December 2013

Tankhouses, Mutanda

Page 18: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Katanga 2012

17

Mined total of 228k MT of copper in ore in 2012

67 days lost production due to power

– Poor power stability and frequency from Katanga’s sub-station impacted by loss of the synchronous condenser

– Katanga’s subscribed peak power for 2012 budget was 128 MW – load shed down to 93 MW

– Greater sensitivity due to energy intensive Luilu

Improved power efficiencies

– Luilu – 150 tpd – 53 MW

– New plant – 220 tpd – 34 MW

– 2012 peak power draw was c.103 MW

– Power peak at 200ktpa will be c.100 MW

Page 19: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Katanga expansion

18

First cathode from new SX/EW plant on 17 December

2012

Annualised 200 ktpa run rate expected by December

2013

– Sulphide receiving – April 2013

– EW 2 – May 2013

– Roaster – September 2013

– Oxide receiving / CCD’s – September 2013

– KTC flow changes – October 2013

Identical technology to Mutanda

Expansion to 300 ktpa by Q4 2014

SX, Katanga

Page 20: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Katanga – EW1 and EW2

19

EW1

EW2

Page 21: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Katanga – before and after

20

Before After

Flot

atio

n C

oppe

r Cat

hode

s

Page 22: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Katanga – KTC

21

Mills, Katanga

Flotation, Katanga

Page 23: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

DRC operations annual production

22

Katanga Copper Mutanda Copper Note: Production data rounded to nearest 1,000.

7 11 16

64

87

22

44

58

91

93

29

55

74

155

180

0

50

100

150

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Page 24: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Thank you

23

Page 25: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 24

Agricultural Products and Viterra

Chris Mahoney Director of Agricultural Products

Page 26: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 25

Acquisition and integration of Viterra

Final regulatory approval from MOFCOM (China) received on 7 December 2012

Transaction closed on 17 December 2012

Moved rapidly to streamline and integrate Viterra

– Viterra international marketing offices in Geneva, Hamburg and Barcelona closed

– International marketing concentrated in Rotterdam and Singapore

All Canadian functions moved to Regina

– Offices in Calgary and Vancouver will be

closed by Q2 2013

Page 27: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Sale of various businesses

26

Sale of various Canadian handling assets to Richardson expected to complete in Q1 2013

– Richardson has already received Canadian competition clearance

Sale of Agri Products business to Agrium expected to complete in Q2 2013

– Agrium’s competition filing is in progress

Auction processes established for the sale of various non-core assets

– Sales, subject to price, expected to be completed in 2013

Page 28: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Illychevsk 2.5M mt 220k mt

Tilbury 500k mt 79k mt

Szczecin 1.25M mt

50k mt

Muuga 4.0M mt 300k mt

Dunaújváros 300k mt 7k mt

Constanza 300k mt 69k mt

Taman 3.0M mt 84k mt

Rostov 1.25M mt 600k mt

Bahia Blanca 3.0M mt 210k mt

Cascadia 6M mt

280k mt

Prince Rupert 6M mt

230k mt

Thunderbay 2M mt

500k mt

Montreal 3M mt

250k mt

Port Lincoln 1.9m mt 395k mt

Port Giles 800k mt 296k mt

Pt Adelaide OH 1.9M mt 65k mt

Pt Adelaide IH 850k mt 338k mt

Wallaroo 750k mt 765k mt

100% ownership Leased JV

Name of port Normalized annual throughput Storage capacity

Thevenard 600k mt 347k mt

Newcastle 1.5M mt 150 k mt

Timbúes 2.7M mt 450k mt

Pacific 2M mt

180k mt

Grain port facilities, 22 with 5.9m MT storage capacity and normalised annual throughput of c.46m MT

27

Glencore’s logistics infrastructure (1/2)

Page 29: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Storage facilities, 274, with cumulative 13.2m MT storage capacity Ukraine

38 facilities 1,267k mt

Bulgaria 2 facilities

64k mt

Romania 10 facilities

337k mt

Russia 11 facilities

710k mt

Hungary 4 facilities 240k mt

Kazakhstan 3 facilities 233k mt

Poland 5 facilities 180k mt

Argentina 8 facilities 372k mt

Uruguay 2 facilities 100k mt

Canada 82 facilities

1.9M mt

Australia 109 facilities

7.8M mt

28

Country Number of storage facilities Storage capacity

Glencore’s logistics infrastructure (2/2)

Page 30: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

Processing facilities

29

Facilities no. Capacity (000 MT)

Crushing 12 7,010

Milling 14 1,840

Biofuels 6 830

Malt 7 740

Feed compound 6 340

Pasta 2 250

Glencore now has a global processing network

Page 31: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

11

38

80

1980 2012 2013

30

Mato Grosso

Paranaguá

Infrastructure opportunities

Source: Company estimates, USDA.

Long term demand growth

China China Hong Kong

Pork consumption (kg per capita)

Crop sizes volatile

Brazil

China

Production

Transport costs from Mato Grosso to Paranaguá c. $125 / mt

– Equivalent to 45-50% of corn price FOB Paranaguá

– Equivalent to 20-25% of soy price FOB Paranaguá

Peak waiting time at port of Paranaguá

– 2011: 20 days

– 2012: 40-45 days

Chinese pork consumption per capita increased from 11 kg in 1980 to c.38 kg in 2012

Pork consumption in Hong Kong in 2013 was c.80 kg per capita

If China reaches the same pork consumption per capita as Hong Kong, this would require c.160m MT of corn

Today’s seaborne trade of corn is c.80m MT

Production of grains can be volatile

– Production corn in US in 2012-13 was 29% less than production in 2009-10

– Production wheat in Russia in 2012-13 was 40% less than production in 2008-09

Opportunities

Page 32: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 31

Ivan Glasenberg

Chief Executive Officer

Page 33: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 32

Concluding remarks and outlook

Overall On-going focus on cost control to defend operating margins

See healthy long-term outlook for Glencore’s commodities based on the continuing growth within emerging market economies and sustained levels of consumption within developed markets

Robust balance sheet with high levels of committed liquidity

Acquisition of Viterra transforms Glencore’s agricultural business into a global operation

Merger with Xstrata will, when completed, provide Glencore with full access to Xstrata’s production flows and allow optimization of the combined capex pipeline and operating structure(1)

− Comprehensive market update following completion

Industrial

Marketing Robust performance in 2012

Future performance expected to be driven by organic growth in industrial assets and integration of Viterra and Xstrata

Tight cost control and diversification mitigated commodity price weakness and led to overall strong performance relative to peers

Significant production ramp-up expected from Mutanda, Katanga, Prodeco, Oil, Kazzinc and various agricultural facilities

Note: (1) Investors’ attention is drawn to the fact that the completion of the merger with Xstrata remains conditional upon the receipt of the outstanding regulatory approval in China; completion of the Xstrata court process and Glencore giving effect to the commitments required by the European Commission. The merger long stop date has been extended to 16 April 2013, with the consent of Xstrata and the Panel.

Page 34: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 33

Q & A

Page 35: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I 34

Appendix

Page 36: Glencore Preliminary Results 201221b324e1-33df-41... · Final dividend of $10.35 cents per share (total dividend of $15.75 cents per share, up 5%) ... transmission) of power allocation

I

(3%)

(36%) (35%)

(32%)

Glencore (excluding stake in Xstrata)

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3

(150)

(1,420)

(1,000)

(900)

Glencore (excluding stake in Xstrata)

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3

2012 relative operating performance – in controlled industrial activities

35

EBITDA margin change 2012 vs 2011 (bps)

Absolute EBITDA change 2012 vs 2011 (%)

Glencore’s relative EBITDA performance arises from quality of assets, diversified commodity mix and high margin growth


Recommended