Home >Documents >Global Business Director Plastics - Blow Molding Business Director ... Benzene Toluene/Xylene Heavy...

Global Business Director Plastics - Blow Molding Business Director ... Benzene Toluene/Xylene Heavy...

Date post:16-Mar-2018
Category:
View:212 times
Download:0 times
Share this document with a friend
Transcript:
  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009SingaporeSingapore ShanghaiShanghai HoustonHouston New YorkNew York LondonLondon DDsseldorfsseldorf DubaiDubai

    Howard RappaportHoward RappaportGlobal Business Director Global Business Director

    PlasticsPlasticshrappaport@cmaiglobal.comhrappaport@cmaiglobal.com

    SPE SPE ABCABCOctober, 2009October, 2009

    Economy > Energy > Feedstocks & Polymer Markets

    Economy > Energy > Feedstocks Economy > Energy > Feedstocks & Polymer Markets& Polymer Markets

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    CMAI - A Global Organization Of Over 150 Full -Time Associates

    CMAI CMAI -- A Global Organization Of Over A Global Organization Of Over 150 Full 150 Full --Time AssociatesTime Associates

    HOUSTONHOUSTONHOUSTONLONDONLONDON

    SINGAPORESINGAPORE

    DubaiDubai

    New YorkNew York

    ShanghaiShanghai

    DusseldorfDusseldorf

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    We consult to a broad base of leading organizations spanning through and across multiple value chains

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    What Drives Polymer Prices?What Drives Polymer Prices?Cost / FeedstocksCost / Feedstocks

    Raw Material PricesRaw Material PricesOperating CostsOperating Costs

    Supply/DemandSupply/DemandEconomyEconomyUtilization RatesUtilization RatesLoss of Available Capacity (outages)Loss of Available Capacity (outages)Inventory Trends (resin, finished goods, etc.)Inventory Trends (resin, finished goods, etc.)Exports / Imports Exports / Imports

    Other DynamicsOther DynamicsPerception / Anticipation of New CapacityPerception / Anticipation of New CapacityDesire for Market ShareDesire for Market SharePrices of Competitive MaterialsPrices of Competitive MaterialsMarket Leadership Market Leadership Market Momentum Market Momentum Natural Disasters / Political TurmoilNatural Disasters / Political Turmoil

    Any of theseAny of thesefactors can,factors can,and willand willinfluence influence priceprice

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Global Plastics Consumption 2009Global Plastics Consumption 2009

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Wood

    Aluminum

    PET

    Glass

    PVC

    Steel

    PS

    LL/LDPE

    Paper

    ABS

    HDPE

    Plastics Compete with Other Plastics & Traditional Materials

    PP

    Concrete

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    EnergyEnergy Base ChemicalsBase Chemicals PlasticsPlastics

    Volatile Energy Prices Impact The ChainNon-DurablesNon-Durables

    ConsumersConsumers RetailRetail

    Energy Price Fluctuations

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    ECONOMYECONOMY& ENERGY& ENERGY

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Reality Check-When the

    Consumer stops

    Reality Check-When the

    Consumer stops

    it all grinds to a halt! it all grinds to a halt!

    ConsumerConsumer

    Retail Retail Finished Finished GoodsGoods

    CompoundsCompounds

    PetrochemsPetrochems

    EnergyEnergy

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    -6.0

    -4.0

    -2.0

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

    Economic Growth Comparison

    World N. America S. America W. Europe SE Asia NE Asia

    Forecast

    Percent (%) Change

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Positive Factors

    Risks & Threats

    Higher Crude Oil

    Prices

    Low Consumer & Business Spending

    Geo-politics

    Reduced Capital & Foreign

    Investment

    Government Rescue & Spending

    Financial & Monetary Policies

    Business & Consumer

    Expectations

    Low

    Inflation

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    -40.0

    -30.0

    -20.0

    -10.0

    0.0

    10.0

    20.0

    08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 09 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

    China IndiaJapan S. KoreaU.S. EUBrazil Russia

    Percent (%) Year/Year ChangeIndustrial Production

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    -8.0

    -6.0

    -4.0

    -2.0

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

    Percent (%)U.S. GDP Growth

    Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Forecast: CMAI

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Energy OverviewEnergy Overview

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Olefins Flow DiagramOlefins Flow Diagram

    FeedstocksFeedstocksFeedstocksEnergyEnergyEnergy PetrochemicalsPetrochemicalsPetrochemicals

    NaphthaNaphthaNaphthaGas OilGas OilGas Oil

    Field CondensatesField Field CondensatesCondensates

    EthaneEthaneEthanePropanePropanePropaneButanesButanesButanes

    PropylenePropylenePropyleneEthyleneEthyleneEthylene

    PygasBenzeneToluene/XyleneHeavy AromaticsC5/C6 Non Aromatics

    PygasPygasBenzeneBenzeneToluene/XyleneToluene/XyleneHeavy AromaticsHeavy AromaticsCC55/C/C66 Non AromaticsNon Aromatics

    Crude C4ButadieneMixed Butylenes

    Crude CCrude C44ButadieneButadieneMixed ButylenesMixed Butylenes

    Fuel OilFuel OilFuel Oil

    Methane/HydrogenMethane/HydrogenMethane/Hydrogen

    Natural GasNatural GasNatural Gas

    Crude OilCrude OilCrude Oil

    RefineryRefinery

    GasSeparation

    Unit

    GasSeparation

    Unit

    Ethylene

    UnitEthylene

    Unit

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Gas LiquidsGas LiquidsCents Per GallonCents Per Gallon

    Natural GasNatural Gas$/ MMBtu$/ MMBtu

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Ethylene & Ethylene & PolyethylenePolyethylene

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Basic Ethylene Flow ChartBasic Ethylene Flow Chart

    SteamSteamCrackerCracker EthyleneEthylene

    NaphthasNaphthas

    Gas OilsGas OilsRefineryRefinery

    CrudeCrudeOilOil

    F i e l dF i e l dCondensatesCondensates

    EthaneEthane

    PropanePropane

    ButanesButanesNaturalNaturalGasGas

    GasGasSeparationSeparation

    UnitUnit

    PropylenePropylene

    ButadieneButadieneButadieneButadiene

    ButylenesButylenesButylenesButylenes

    BTX BTX BTXBTX (pygas)(pygas)

    HeavyHeavyAromaticsAromatics

    MethaneMethane

    HydrogenHydrogen

    Fuel OilFuel Oil

    FeedstocksFeedstocks

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    ForecastForecast

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    U.S. Daily Ethylene Cash CostsU.S. Daily Ethylene Cash Costs Dollars Per Metric TonDollars Per Metric Ton

    U.S. Daily Ethylene Cash CostsU.S. Daily Ethylene Cash Costs

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    Middle East Ethylene Capacity Middle East Ethylene Capacity Additions 2008Additions 2008--20092009

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    ForecastForecast

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    U.S. Ethylene ConclusionsU.S. Ethylene ConclusionsOversupply and weak demand result in a long marketOlefins markets clearly in the trough, margins squeezedHeavy feed crackers challenged by crude oil prices vs. natural gasNorth America ethylene derivative exports supported by favorable crude-to-gas ratioSignificant capacity reductions are inevitable

    Oversupply and weak demand Oversupply and weak demand result in a long marketresult in a long marketOlefins markets clearly in the Olefins markets clearly in the trough, margins squeezedtrough, margins squeezedHeavy feed crackers challenged Heavy feed crackers challenged by crude oil prices vs. natural by crude oil prices vs. natural gasgasNorth America ethylene North America ethylene derivative exports supported by derivative exports supported by favorable crudefavorable crude--toto--gas ratiogas ratioSignificant capacity reductions Significant capacity reductions are inevitableare inevitable

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    1221223737229229--143143Inventory change MMLBS

    84.084.083.683.688.188.177.777.7Operating Rate--9.99.9--7.17.1--14.214.2Total SalesTotal Sales

    --5.45.4--2.62.6--7.87.8--16.416.4Exports (est.)Exports (est.)--6.86.8--13.313.3Domestic SalesDomestic Sales

    --8.18.1--7.17.1--3.43.4-- 18.218.2Total SupplyTotal Supply--26.826.8--25.725.7--32.532.5--21.021.0ImportsImports--7.97.9--7.07.0--3.13.1--18.218.2ProductionProduction

    Total PETotal PEHDPEHDPELLDPELLDPELDPELDPEU.S. and Canada, Percent Change YTD July 2009 vs. YTD July 2008U.S. and Canada, Percent Change YTD July 2009 vs. YTD July 2008

    --13.513.5 --11.411.4

    --9.89.8

    PE: Industry PerformancePE: Industry Performance

  • SPE SPE -- ABC ABC -- October, 2009October, 2009

    PE Demand Year Over YearPE Demand Year Over YearU.S./Canada Polyethylene DemandU.S./Canada Polyethylene Demand

    Percent Change, Year over YearPercent Change, Year over Year %AAGR %AAGR %AAGR%AAGREnd UseEnd Use 20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 '04'04--'09'09 '09'09--'14'14

    Film & SheetFilm & Sheet --5.45.4 --1.01.0 4.34.3 --12.212.2 --2.82.8 --3.63.6 1.51.5

    Injection M

Embed Size (px)
Recommended