Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017

Leading consultancy for the oil & gas marketswww.fgenergy.com

Key features and trends in the global butane market.

Leading consultancy for the oil & gas markets www.fgenergy.com

Post-2020, we expect that the LPG demand driver in Asia will switch

from China to the populous regions of South and SE Asia—from

India in the west to Indonesia in the east. The region presents

opportunities but also challenges for US supply that is further away.

Also South and SE Asia are butane-heavy or propane/butane mix

markets; whereas the US has been primarily exporting propane.

Interestingly though, the Middle East as a region was exporting a

greater proportion of butane in 2016 than it had in prior years. In

the future, with butane demand rising from South and SE Asia, the

Middle East shall remain as the main butane supplier, as how the

US slowly displacing them in East Asia for the propane markets.

However, the market length has been and continues to be in

propane because the US shale revolution has resulted in much more

propane in world markets, but not that much butane. As a result,

March 2017 Saudi CP, the widest divergence between propane and

butane prices seen since early 2013, could be a precursor of a future

wider divergence.

FGE’s Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017

FGE’s detailed assessment of the mid/long-term operating environment for global butane trade. In this

study, we forecast butane demand and review likely incremental supplies to identify the potential pressures

on the global butane market and what this could mean for the stakeholders in the next 5-10 years.

Overview

This report provides a snapshot of:• Demand (import) and supply (export) projections for the

East and West until 2025• Butane market dynamics• Growing demand of LPG and butane in Asia Pacific• Specialized uses of butane particularly in China• Dynamics between natural gas and LPG

Key Areas Addressed in This Study

The East—particularly India, Indonesia, and China—will drive butane imports. Combined, they account

for about 65% of the Asia Pacific’s butane imports.

Chart 1 -

Asia: Butane Import Demand Centers

Butane imports will continue growing in the East and remain as the primary demand center. Import

demand will grow faster than supply growth.

Chart 2 -

Butane Trade East: Exports & Imports

Propane exports already exceed US retail demand. But butane exports, while growing, is subject

to local seasonal demand. In the post-2020 world, traders with access to US butane may have an

advantage to supply SE and South Asia.

Chart 3 -

US: Butane Outlets

0

100

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2012 2016 2020 2025

kb/d

Retail

Petchem

Exports

Refining

6.8 7.2 7.6 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.5

5.3 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.52.3 2.6 2.8

3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.97.8 7.9

8.18.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

milliontons

India China Indonesia RestofAsiaPacific

20

22

24

26

28

30

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

milliontons

NetTotalExports NetTotalImports

Leading consultancy for the oil & gas marketswww.fgenergy.com

FGE’s Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017

Key Strengths of This Study

The predominant themes in the LPG market in recent years

have been propane-focused market, propane-butane length,

and increasing spread between propane and butane.

This study provides an in-depth and unique look at the growing

importance of butane. No other report in the market pays as

much attention to the topic.

This study highlights the key features and trends in the global

butane seaborne trade.

Coverage

This study covers butane for the key global supply and demand

regions from 2014 to 2025.

Butane demand by region is forecast through 2025, based on

FGE’s own methodology and models.

Additions to regional supply and demand are built up country-

by-country over the forecast period. Using our proprietary

models, butane balances are created for each region. This

creates our assessment of the “unbalanced” world, which

is then further re-iterated until a global balance is achieved.

The process of transition from imbalance to balance highlights

the pressures on the butane markets and provides the markets

with a unique perspective on the future international trade

environment.

Structure

Part I. Global Butane Trade

I. Global Butane Trade Overview

II. Major Export Regions

III. Major Import Regions

IV. Butane Trade Flow

Part II. Butane Imports East

I. Overall Butane Import Outlook: East

II. South Asia & East Asia

III. Southeast Asia

IV. Specialized Butane Uses

V. Focus Regions: LPG in South Asia and SE Asia

— LPG Sectoral Demand

— Natural Gas and LPG Dynamics

Part III. Butane Imports WestI. Overall Butane Import Outlook: WestII. North AfricaIII. MediterraneanIV. NW EuropeV. Latin America

Part IV. Butane Deep Processing ChinaI. Deep Dive on Butane for ‘Deep Processing’ in China

Further Information

If you are interested in obtaining further information on this study, or would like to order FGE’s Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017,

please contact FGE’s sales team.

FGE London

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7726 9570

Email: marketing@fgenergy.com

Leading consultancy for the oil & gas marketswww.fgenergy.com

This Study Will Add Value To:

FGE’s Global Butane Trade Outlook 2017

FGE Singapore

Tel: +65 6222 0045

Oil Majors and Oil & Gas Companies

Seeking an outside perspective on the likely future economic

environment of the international butane trading market.

Petrochemical and Chemical Companies

Seeking an independent outlook of the international butane

trading market.

Shipowners

Conducting analysis of potential carrier demand.

Trading Houses

Identifying emerging underlying shifts in trade flows.

Deliverables:

PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout). An update of the report in mid-2018.

FGE will be available for a telephone call, WebEx meeting, or

a general meeting to present and discuss the key findings of

the report.

Front page image source: Epic Gas internal archives