Date post: | 27-Apr-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | phungduong |
View: | 216 times |
Download: | 2 times |
Eduarda Castel-Branco, ETF
Paris, 20/10/2016
GLOBAL CHALLENGES DRIVERS OF CHANGE FUTURE SKILLS NEEDS
EASTERN PARTNERSHIP
1. EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES: DIFFERENT PATHS, SOME SIMILARITIES
2. DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Geopolitical context
EU Association Agreements
Shifts in sectoral structure
Green SME
3. ENABLERS OF CHANGE
Skills: trends; reforms in education and training; demographics
4. ANTICIPATION MATTERS
Make it Match: changing paradigms, networked approaches
Frame – Skills for the future
2
STORY LINE
3
EASTERN PARTNERSHIP
4
1. DIFFERENT PATHS, SOME SIMILARITIES: GDP GROWTH
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Belarus
Georgia
Moldova
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Sources: World Bank
1. EDUCATION RESULTS / INDICATORS ARE STRONG IN THE REGION
Educational access is nearly universal and levels of attainment are high
VET: well established
Higher education: pays off in terms of better prospects and faster LM transitions
Over-qualification: quite pronounced (over 15%)
2. BUT STAGNATION IN JOB CREATION RESULTS IN MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
Educational investments not fully translated into productive utilisation of human capital
NEET rate (15-24): declining in last years - but high in most countries (20-30%)
Gender issues in he Labour market
5
1. TENSIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES
6
1. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT POPULATION (2015)
high 23%
low 8% mediu
m 69%
Armenia (15-75)
high 22%
low 13% mediu
m 65%
Azerbaijan (15-64)-2013
high 44%
low 7%
medium 49%
Ukraine (15-70)
high 35%
low 4%
medium
61%
Georgia (25-64)
Sources: DB Torino process 2016
7
1. A) YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (15-24) B) NEET RATE (15-24)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AM
AZ
GE
MD
UA
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AM
GE
MD
UA
Youth unemployment rate NEET rate
8
2. DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Geopolitical factors
Special relationship with neighbouring countries: a priority
policy EU – Treaty on European Union (Art 8)
EU Association Agreements (2014)
Georgia
Moldova
Ukraine
• Legislative approximation,
acquis
• DCFTA
• Education and training -
EQF
9
2. SECTORS MATTER: GDP BY SECTOR, VA (% OF GDP)
Agriculture 7%
Industry 37%
Services
56%
Azerbaijan
Agriculture 14%
Industry 26%
Services
60%
Ukraine
Agriculture 19%
Industry 29%
Services
52%
Armenia
Agriculture 8%
Industry
40%
Services
52%
Belarus
Agriculture 9%
Industry
25% Service
s 66%
Georgia
Agriculture
14%
Industry 18%
Services 68%
Moldova
10
2. GDP BY SECTOR, VALUE ADDED (% OF GDP)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Agriculture
Industr
y
Serv
ices
Agriculture
Industr
y
Serv
ices
Agriculture
Industr
y
Serv
ices
Agriculture
Industr
y
Serv
ices
Agriculture
Industr
y
Serv
ices
Agriculture
Industr
y
Serv
ices
Agriculture
Industr
y
Serv
ices
Azerbaijan Armenia Belarus Georgia Moldova Russian Federation Ukraine
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Disruptors!
11
2. SKILL GAPS (2013)
AM AZ BY GE MD RU UA
2013 6.4 0.5 17.9 9.9 31.2 7.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Skill gap (2013)
Based: World Bank Enterprise Surveys
12
3. EAP GREEN: FROM A LINEAR ECONOMY - TO A CIRCULAR ECONOMY
Natural resources Take Make Dispose…waste
From waste to resources
Production
Consumption
Waste management
- Growth and jobs creation, incl
direct jobs in waste
management sectors
- Skills in green firms, production
- Savings
http://www.slideshare.net/OECD_ENV/clipboards/promoting-better-environmental-
performance-of-smes-in-eastern-partnership-countries
13
3. ENABLERS OF CHANGE
Skills trends
Reforms education & training
Skills anticipation and matching
Make it Match Network
Frame – skills for the future
14
3. ENABLERS OF CHANGE
Skills trends: signals from various analyses - for
decision making, guidance and information, enterprise
HRM
STEP (World Bank)
SWTS (School-to-work transition survey. ILO)
EESE (Enabling Environment for Sustainable
Enterprises, ILO)
National surveys
15
3. SKILLS TRENDS: STEP – STWS – EES ENTERPRISE
Country STEP SWTS EES Enterprises
ARM Core employability
skills:
A) College graduates:
Occup specific
technical skills
Problem solving
Teamwork
Communication
B) Higher educ graduates
Occup specific
technical skills
Teamwork
Time management
Ability to work
independently
LM transition of most young
people: long and circuitous
High unemployment among
highly educated youth
Overqualif young workers:
(21.5%) / undereduc: 11.6%
Oversupply youth labour:
professionals
Undersupply: legislators,
service workers, skilled agr
workers, elementary
occupations
Strong communication skills (26% of
companies)
Strong analytical skills (24%)
Strong interpersonal skills (18%)
Flexible “Can Do” attitude (28%)
Basic science and technology Knowl
Foreign languages Knowledge
Digital skills
Tourism training
16
3. SKILLS TRENDS: STEP – EES ENTERPRISE
Country STEP EES Enterprises
GEO Core employability skills:
A) Highly skilled professionals
Occup specific technical skills
Problem solving
B) Middle-low skilled workers
Occup specific technical skills
Teamwork
Problem solving skills
Ability to work independently
Skills and attributes demanded:
Strong skills: analytical,
communication, interpersonal.
Academic achievements
Teamplayer
Flexible “Can do” attitude
Science and technology Knowledge
Digital skills
AZERB A) College graduates: leadership, openness to
experience
B) HE graduates: teamwork
Common: problem-solving; job specific skills
17
3. REFORMS EDUCATION AND TRAINING
NQF: development and implementation
Bologna reforms: all 6 countries (Bel: from 2015)
Participation in EU programmes – mobility students,
researchers
VET
Work-based learning – gaining momentum
+ Engagement employers: in design / use of standards to
assessment
Torino process – reviewing change, setting priorities
18
4. SKILLS ANTICIPATION - ETF POSITION PAPER: BACKGROUND CONCEPTS
19
4. FORESIGHT – SHAPING THE FUTURE
A key distinction between forecast and foresight exercices is that the
latter go beyond the exploration of future scenarios by promoting
decision-making and mobilising action to shape the future and realise
these scenarios (ETF, 2014)
Foresight exercices provide a framework for stakeholders to jointly think about
future scenarios and actively shape policies to reach these scenarios.
Foresight involves stakeholders concerned with skills-related issues in a
structured and constructive way to develop a common policy vision.
In: OECD, Getting Skills Right: Assessing and Anticipating Changing Skill
Needs
20
4. SKILLS ANTICIPATION AND MATCHING – ETF INITIATIVES
Make it Match Network (EaP
Platform 2 work programme)
1. Regional (multilateral
cooperation, Network)
2. Country activities
• Skills Forecast
• Employers survey
• LMIS
• LM Observatory
• Tracer study
Frame – skills for the
future: a framework for
skills foresight
- Qualitative
- Participatory
- Vision, priorities,
roadmap
- Institutional
arrangements
- Monitoring
21
4. MAKE IT MATCH APPROACH
1. Skills anticipation and matching: integrated cycle of the 3 basic functions
2. Collaboration: both technical expertise and institutional processes
are at the centre to move towards an anticipation system
• Inter-institutional cooperation: networked approach for synergy (tools,
resources, outreach, effectiveness in decision making)
• Top-down and bottom-up interaction
• Involve users
• Target the products
3. Mix of approaches and methods
4. Reinforce tools and methods, robustness of data, and keep up with new
methodological developments
22
4. SKILLS ANTICIPATION AND MATCHING: CHANGING PARADIGM
1. From top-down quantitative manpower planning - to identification of
emerging skills needs; of prospective occupations-skills
2. Supplement surveys’ data with qualitative in-depth analysis skills
needs
3. Angles of analysis - adapted instruments (scope, time perspective)
4. Results of anticipation – make sense, interpret with stakeholders’
involvement
5. Link to users: guidance, LM info, policy making, design training offer
and qualifications
6. Networked and collaborative approaches
23
SUMMING-UP
Geopolitical factors – Russia / EU
Services, energy, manufacturing, greening
Educated workforce
But low job creation
Youth employability policies
Skills anticipation and matching mechanisms and capabilities
– becoming part of decision-making
Involvement of stakeholders from the world of work –
improving
THANK YOU