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Global Change Have we reached The Tipping Point ?
Global Change
Have we reached
The Tipping Point ?
International Panel on Climate Change IPCC
• The IPCC reflect the views of 2,500 scientists - including eight Nobel Laureates
• The IPCC makes regular assessment reports on Climate Change 1990, 1991, 2001 & 2007 (FAR)
• The Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) summary was published February 2, 2007 In Paris and the full report was be produced later in the year.
Contributions of greenhouse gases to Global Warming Worldwide.
• Carbon Dioxide CO2 66%
• Methane CH4 18%
• Chlorfluocarbons CFCs11%
• NOx & others 5%
source IPPC
IPCC 2007 – Radiative Forcing Components
IPCC 2007 - Carbon Dioxide Concentration
"The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years" (the period over which measurements are possible from ice cores)
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
Carbon Cycle Giga tonnes
Temperature & CO2 over 450,000 years
CO2 andTemperature for 150,000 Years
CO2 over 1000 Years
CO2 Measured on Mauna Loa – Hawaai 1960-2007
CO2 Measured on Mauna Loa – Hawaai 2004-08
Solar Cosmic Ray cycles
Solar cycles of about 11y are too short to affect climate long term
IPCC 2007 - Carbon Dioxide Forcing
"The carbon dioxide radiative forcing increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005, the largest change for any decade in at least the last 200 years."
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
IPCC 2007 - Carbon Dioxide Source
"The primary source of the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial period results from fossil fuel use, with land use change providing another significant but smaller contribution."Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
Methane Emissions
IPCC 2001 –Effects of Global Warming
IPCC 2007 –Effects of Global Warming
IPCC 2007 – Ocean Warming
"Since 1961 the average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system. Such warming causes seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rise" Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
IPCC 2001-07 – Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise - is IPCC too optimistic? (1)
Source http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/the-ipcc-sea-level-numbers/
Sea Level Rise - is IPCC too optimistic? (2)
Source http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/the-ipcc-sea-level-numbers/
Ocean Warming New Research December 2007
A study by a consortium of scientists from the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton and other institutes states
“The average rate of rise of 1.6 metres per century is roughly twice as high as the maximum estimates in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment report." Source http://www.southampton.ac.uk/mediacentre/news/2007/dec/07_177.shtml
The rapid melting of ice in
Greenland, Antarctica and elsewhere is accelerating the
movement of glaciers leading to a more rapid
loss than was previously expected.
Sea Level Rise Belgium & Netherlands 0m
Sea Level Rise Belgium & Netherlands 1m
Sea Level Rise Belgium & Netherlands 2m
London UK Sea Level Rise 2100 ?
1995 Lower Rhine heavy local rain and runoff
IPCC 2007 –Temp. Sea Level & Snow Cover
IPCC 2007 – Getting hotter quicker
"Global average surface warming (this century) is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of
about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher
than 4.5°C cannot be excluded."
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
European Summer 2003
• Likelihood of occurring 140,000y
• 30,000 deaths• Low crop yields• Wildfires• 10% loss of Alpine
Glaciers
• Source Schar et Al., NATURE | VOL 427 | 22 JANUARY 2004 p333
IPCC 2007 – Hot Years
"Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (kept since 1850)."
Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
The effect of temperature on crop yield
The effect of temperature on cereals yield
Sub Saharan Africa – Kenya a country in distress 1
• Mountain glaciers disappearing on Mount Kenya and Kilimanjaro
• rain-fed agriculture accounts for over 90% of food production
• Increased frequency of droughts and floods
• Kenya's population growth rate is still one of the highest in the world at 30 % in 10 years
• Forest resources and soil cover are being depleted
• Internal conflict over resources
Sub Saharan Africa – Kenya a country in distress 2
‘Kenya’s arid Turkana district, which borders Ethiopia, has only two sources of freshwater – the Turkwell and Omo rivers. The Turkwell, in Kenya, has been dammed to generate electricity, reducing its flow downstream. The Omo originates in the Ethiopian highlands and they’re now diverting this water for irrigation. Lake Turkana is turning saline and its level has dropped by 60 metres over the last ten years. Professor Richard Odingo, vice-chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
‘there will be mass migrations by people from Africa in search of food-Europe should be prepared,’ he says. ‘We are either going to prosper together or perish together when climate change comes. They should not think that the barrier between Morocco and Spain will stop people from the south moving into Europe.’ Professor Eric Odada of the International Council for Science,
Loss of Arctic ice could arrest the Ocean Conveyor belt and the Gulf Stream
The saltiness of the bottom current has already weakened in the last 40 years
Oily Politics A letter to President George W Bush before the Johannesburg Summit in 2002 from political
groups and individuals asked him not to participate. Signatories included:-
• Fred L Smith and Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute
• Craig Rucker from the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT)
• Steven Hayward from the American Enterprise Institute
• Terrence Scanlon from the Capital Research Center
• Joseph L Bast of the Heartland Institute
• Deroy Murdock of the Atlas Economic Research Foundation (AERF)
• H Stirling Burnett of the National Center for Policy Analysis
• all funding details from an official Exxon document
• funding from Exxon $280,000 in 2001
• funding from Exxon $35,000 in 2001
• funding from Exxon $25,000 in 2001
• funding from Exxon $25,000 in 2001
• funding from Exxon $90,000 in 2001
• funding from Exxon $150,000 in 2001
• funding from Exxon $20,000 in 2001
IPCC 2007 – Global Warming
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level"Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
IPCC 2007 – A rapidly changing planet
"Long-term changes in climate have been observed including changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones" Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
Fiddling while the Earth burns1
“I think we have a problem on global warming. There is a worthy debate on whether global warming is caused by human activities.” Birthday interview 06-07-2006
“I think we all agree, the past is over.” Meeting with John McCain 10-05-2000
“ The best way to get the news is from objective sources, and the most objective sources I have are people on my staff who tell me what's happening in the world.” Fox interview 23-9-2003
Some of the scientists I believe, haven’t they been changing their opinion a little bit on global warming? Presidential Debate 11-10 2000
1 The emporer Nero is supposed to have played the fiddle (violin) while Rome burned
IPCC 2007 – The train is on the move!
"Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further
warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st
century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th
century" Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
Carbon Emissions - rapidly getting worse
• Emissions were rising by less than 1% annually up to the year 2000, but are now rising at 2.5% per year.
• the acceleration comes mainly from a rise in charcoal consumption and a lack of new energy efficiency gains
• 7.9 billion tonnes (gigatonnes, Gt) of carbon passed into the atmosphere last year. In 2000, the figure was 6.8Gt.
• From 2000 to 2005, the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions was more than 2.5% per year, whereas in the 1990s it was less than 1% per year
• EU biofuel could absorb 0.12 % by 2010 and a maximum of 1.4% by 2030 but might compete with food requirements
• Source Global Carbon Project - 27 November 2006
IPCC 2007 – Model Temperature Predictions
IPCC 2007 – Stop the train I want to get off !!
"Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized." Source International Panel on Climate Change
February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers
Methane Hydrate Clathrates – The hidden bomb
Methane Hydrate Clathrates – bomb or Energy?
A Lesson from History (4200 years BP) The Akkadian Empire collapses
About 4200 years before present day North Atlantic temperatures decreased by 2-3 °C
The Empire of Sargon of Akkad was destroyed by Drought and Dust Storms At the same time the Egyptian Old Kingdom(Gizeh Pyramids) collapsed The was a dramatic decrease in evergreen cover in the Indus valley
Sargon of Akkad
Akkadian Imperial Collapse – the evidence from sediments
Akkadian Imperial Collapse – the consequences• Severe climate change caused widespread human misery 4,200
years ago that we are only now learning about for the first time. • After a thousand years of stability there was a sudden and dramatic
drop in rainfall, by 20%. • The headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers that are fed by
elevation-induced capture of winter Mediterranean rainfall fell • In the Akkadian empire the winds blanketed the northern wheat
fields in dust. They emptied out towns and villages, sending people stumbling south with pastoral nomads, to seek forage.
• All of Upper Egypt was dying of hunger so much that everyone had come to eating their children (Hieroglyphs in Ankhtifi tomb)
• In China, the Hongsan culture collapsed at this same time• In the Indus valley evergreen forest dropped from nearly 20% in
2200 BC to below 10% in the following centuries.
Global ChangeHave we reached
The Tipping Point ?
You
must decide and then act
IPCC site reference
Read these 18 pages before you write your thesis
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change February 2007
www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
My site – for overheads
http://users.skynet.be/am269035/VUB_Global_change/index.htm
