Global Change Research in Belgium
1990-2002Guy P. Brasseur
Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyChair, International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP)
Hamburg, Germany
An enigma from the ice…
Antarctic record of temperature, CO2 and CH4
The only place this much carbon can “hide” during the ice ages is in the ocean strong coupling between climate and marine carbon cycle
Methane comes mostly from wetlands strong coupling between climate and terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle
… pointing into an uncertain future…
History shows that physical climate, ocean dynamics, and terrestrial ecosystems are a strongly linked system.
In the last 150 years, we have introduced massive perturbations in some of the forcing variables ---
How will the system respond???
?
The Earth System
The Earth: A Complex Dynamical System
• In nonlinear complex systems, minute actions can cause long term, large scale changes. These changes can be abrupt, devastating, surprising, unmanageable.
The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme
IGBP
IGBP provides scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living
Earth.
Specifically IGBP studies the interactions between biological, physical, and chemical processes, and
human systems. It collaborates with other programmes to provide the knowledge necessary to
respond to environmental change.
IGBP Projects
• Atmosphere: IGAC
• Ocean: IMBER and GLOBEC
• Land: GLP
• Ocean-Atmosphere: SOLAS
• Land-Atmosphere: iLEAPS
• Land-Ocean: LOICZ
• Integration: PAGES and AIMES
AIMESGLP
www.ess-p.org
Health
Challenges for the Future
CLIMATE
(Gas-phase)CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS
AEROSOLS GREENHOUSE GASES
Greenhouse Effect
CO2
Direct and Indirect Effects / Feedbacks on natural sources
CH4, O3,N2O, CFC
HumanEmissions
HumanEmissions
HumanEmissions
Land-useChange, Fires
Oxidants:OH, H2O2
HO2,O3
Fires: sootMineral dust
Biogenic Emissions:CH4,DMS,VOC’sDry deposition: stomatal conductance
N deposition03, UV radiation
The future: a full treatment of climate-chemistry-ecosystem-land surface feedbacks
LAND WATER / CITIES
Damming / Irrigation / Emission of heat
Heat island effect
Based on P. Cox, 2004
Carbon and Climate
ECHAM5 T63L31
JSBACHMPI-OM
CO2 transport
C transport
THCupwelling
exportproduction
1860 - 2100CO2 emissions2300 GtC
610 GtC
40.000 GtC
HAMOCCinterface
albedo
photosynthesisstomatal conductance
phenology
carbon pools
soil, hydrologicaland energy balance
CO2 acts on radiation,stomata and photosynthesis(with climate feedback)
CO2 acts on stomataand photosynthesis, but not on radiation(no climate feedback)
CO
2
ppm
Atmospheric CO2 concentration (global and annual mean)
year
80ppm
positive feedback negative feedback
Difference in carbon uptake between experiments(with minus without carbon cycle - climate feedback)
[kgC / m2]2100
Feedback
Atmospheric CO2
Atmospheric CO2 Difference
C4MIP (IGBP/AIMES)
Air Quality and Climate Change
Climate Response to Potential
Improvement in Air Quality
• In blue: GHG unchanged after year 2000 (commitment experiment).
• In Red: GHG unchanged and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols removed after year 2000 (sensitivity experiment).
(K)
(%)
Response in Temperature and
Precipitation(30 year average)
• Temperature increase larger than 1K over the continents, larger than 4K in the Arctic.
• Temperature and precipitation changes bear some resemblance with greenhouse warming experiments
• A significant increase in precipitation is found in Eastern Pacific, suggesting an El-Nino like change in the mean climate state.
Global Change and the Social System
Earth SystemModel
Humanperturbation
Humanimpact
Including Social feedbacks
Earth SystemModel
Humanperturbation
Humanimpact
Land useWater use
Energy production and consumptionPopulation growthEconomic growth
Structure of the economyHuman health
Including Social feedbacks
Challenges for the Future
• Earth system science should contribute to the themes that will drive fundamental research in the 21st century:
• Interfaces between the micro- and the macro-worlds
• Interfaces between the living and the dead nature
• Interfaces between nature and culture
Thank You
Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring
and Prediction
AtmosphereModels
OceanModels
Land SurfaceModels
TerrestrialBiosphere
Models
Solid Earth M
odels
Car
bon
Cyc
lean
d B
ioge
oche
mi s
try
Wat
er C
y cle
The Earth SystemUnifying the Models
The Predictive Earth System
Megaflops Gigaflops Teraflops Petaflops
Natural HazardPrediction
Hydrology
ProcessModels
Climate / WeatherModels
2000 2010
Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring, Assimilation and Prediction Systems