Global Cleantech Report 2012 COPENHAGEN CLEANTECH CLUSTER
May, 2012
- EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION -
A SNAPSHOT OF FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS
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3
Table of contents
1) Executive Summary
The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth
• The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms
• The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West
• The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
• The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
• The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system
• To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
• Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
• The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
• Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
• The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat?
• Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
• Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
• In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
2) Appendix
EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
p. 3
p. 4
p. 5
p. 6
p. 7
p. 9
p. 10
p. 11
p. 12
p. 13
p. 15
p. 16
p. 17
p. 18
4
The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind
as the fastest-growing platforms
2010 Market
2015 Growth
7% 84% CAGR
Cleantech plaforms – market size (USD billions)
Note: Markets include all major CAPEX but not operations or commodities. Total may vary due to roundings
Sources: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
28% 39% 3% -7% 26% 4% 66% 74% 6% 18%
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
113 15
63
59
-28
72
13 8
Geothermal
5
2 1 3
Energy
storage
7
1 6
Maritime
cleantech
8
Clean road
transport
13
1
Bioenergy
13
10 4
Solid waste
31
26
5
Offshore
wind
73
14
Solar PV
(2011-2015)
79
107
Smart grid
89
26
Onshore
wind
110
95
Building
efficiency
materials
160
47
Clean water
243
171
5
The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West
Note: “centre of gravity” is used as a metaphorical term in this context
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
~14%
181
94
2015 2010
243
198
2015 2010
1913
2015 2010
26
11
2015 2010
168
2015 2010
287
142
2015 2010
North America
South America
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
~4%
~8%
~19%
~14%
~15%
CAGR >10%
CAGR 0-10%
CAGR < 0%
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Building efficiency materials
Smart grid
Clean road/EV
Clean water
Solid waste
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Building efficiency materials
Smart grid
Clean road/EV
Clean water
Solid waste
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Building efficiency materials
Smart grid
Clean road/EV
Clean water
Solid waste
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Building efficiency materials
Smart grid
Clean road/EV
Clean water
Solid waste
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Building efficiency materials
Smart grid
Clean road/EV
Clean water
Solid waste
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar
Geothermal
Bioenergy
Building efficiency materials
Smart grid
Clean road/EV
Clean water
Solid waste
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
The global market for cleantech across regions, 2010- 2015E (USD billions)
6
Cities have the power to influence cleantech investments
through large projects Top-30 cities will drive 20% of the GDP growth from 2010-20
The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new
normal"
Top-30
cities
Total GDP growth,
2010-2020
Total population
growth, 2010-2020
20%
60%
100%
10% 100%
Top-600
cities
ROW
Source: McKinsey & Co, Brookings Institute, PWC, UN, World Bank, C40, MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
Area
Transport
Buildings
Waste
Water
Energy supply
Outdoor lighting
City power Number of city projects
ECO-city definition
ECO-cities cover five focus areas which contribute to improve the
quality of life in cities while using resources in a sustainable way
and reducing environmental impact
• Urban transport
• Waste
• Renewable and smart energy generation and distribution
• Water
• Building energy efficiency
7
The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing
megacities and suburb areas
2010 2015 2020
Rural
areas 50%
(6,84)
48%
(7,22)
46%
(7,57)
2025 2030
43%
(7,91)
41%
(8,22)
50% Urban
areas 52% 54% 57%
59%
Share of the world's population living in urban areas
Per cent (billion people)
Example of Chinese investments in megacity developments
China is planning to
invest DKK 1.800
billion across 160
infrastructure projects
over the next couple
of years to merge
nine cities in South
China, creating a city
with 42 million
inhabitants*
Total investment in urban infrastructure in China over the next
five years is expected to hit GBP 685 billion, with an additional
GBP 300 billion spend on high-speed rail and GBP 70 billion on
urban transport
British Chamber of Commerce
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS AND GLOBAL MARKETS
*The Telegraph, 24 Jan 2011, by Malcolm Moore in Shanghai and Peter Foster in Beijing
Source: World Economic Forum; The Economist; British Chamber of Commerce
8
-
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
- 50 100 150 200 250 300
The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will
account for the majority of the cleantech growth
Indian megagrowth
Wealth creators
Rapid
urbanisation
Great BRIC+
Absolute GDP Growth ($ billion)
Ab
so
lute
Po
pu
lati
on
Gro
wth
(10
3)
THE CLEANTECH PLATFORMS and GLOBAL MARKETS
Great Turks
Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under way
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
1
2
5
6
4
3
Top-200 large cities' growth trajectories, 2012-2020
American
Hotspots
9
Table of contents
EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
1) Executive summary
The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth
• The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms
• The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West
• The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
• The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
• The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system
• To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
• Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
• The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
• Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
• The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat?
• Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
• Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
• In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
2) Appendix
p. 3
p. 4
p. 5
p. 6
p. 7
p. 9
p. 10
p. 11
p. 12
p. 13
p. 15
p. 16
p. 17
p. 18
10
So far, no cleantech or clean energy industry has managed
to cross the cost of energy chasm without legislative support
through incentives or codes
In order to become a viable global industry, cleantech must
reduce cost of energy to become independent of governmental
support
To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate
the industrialisation
In 2035, subsidies to renewables reach almost USD 250
billion in the New Policies Scenario. Onshore wind becomes
competitive around 2020 in the European Union … All other
technologies require continuing subsidies
World Energy Outlook 2011
243Offshore wind
Coal 109
… smart grid and building energy efficiency equipment and
services are the most probable ones crossing the cost of
energy chasm since they are able to reduce alternative
investments in infrastructure while reducing the operating cost
The Global Cleantech Report 2012
* Estimated for plants entering into service in 2016. Unit is 2012 USD
** The extra cost varies between countries due to difference in local build culture, certification programmes and green build material production
Source: World Energy Outlook; Reuters; World Business Council Sustainable Development – BCI Survey; Quartz+Co analysis; MEC Intelligence analysis
Time M
ark
et p
en
etr
ation
Cost of energy chasm
5 6
7
8 9
1
2 3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
2
3
4
Green buildings
Solar PV
Solid waste
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Bioenergy
Smart grid
Geothermal
Clean road transport
Coal Gas Oil
Next gen.
cleantech
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
Sample technology maturity curve EXAMPLES ILLUSTRATIVE Coal vs. wind – global average costs* (USD/MWh)
"Non-green" vs. green building – extra up-front cost for green building**
Green building – China 28%
Green building – Germany 17%
Green building – US 16%
11
Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for
competitive integrated solutions with local content
Transport infrastructure CAPEX saving
Water utility CAPEX saving
Energy/water subsidy saving
Energy infrastructure CAPEX saving
Green building extra CAPEX
0
Net benefit
Retaining attractive population
Attractive lucrative jobs
Job creation from local content
0 0
Affordable Greening - e.g. Lagos Comfort Evolution - e.g. Mexico City Branded City - e.g. London
$Business case = (utility CAPEX saving) + (OPEX saving) + (job creation) + (less CO2 emissions) + .... Complex value creation
Financial Societal Environmental
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
City segment
Value (USD)
Savings from integrated "One System" solutions across city segments
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
ILLUSTRATIVE
City segment description • Driven by extreme urbanization and low GDP
• Need to create a large growth in new housings
• Making these housings and infrastructure
“green” can create the lowest total CAPEX for
water, electricity and waste
• Evident in most large and fast growing cities
in developing countries
• Strong urbanization in recent years
• Focus on livability through buildings with
improved comfort, more efficient
transportation and typically most important –
clean water and clean air
• Large cities in the developed world which are
competing against each other to attract the
right companies and to be a very attractive
place to live for its citizens
• The ECO city projects are not a “need” driven
ambition but a strive towards being a truly
better place
12
… to a macro approach where purchasing decisions are co-
ordinated and made on an aggregated level across sectors
From a micro-thinking approach with multiple customer
touch-points across sectors …
Master
planning
The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is
moving towards complex value systems
Traditional go-to-market approach Market approach towards megacities
Suppliers Suppliers Suppliers Suppliers
Energy Transport Water Buildings
Energy Transport Water Buildings
Suppliers
ILLUSTRATIVE ILLUSTRATIVE
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
Source: Quartz+Co analysis
13
Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and
competences in the "greening" of megacities
Lack of capital
Cities are
empowered to
implement new
sustainable projects
but limited by access
to capital
30%57%
100%
PPP & ADB's
Gov. Funds
Urban Local
2020
20%
50%
2011
10%
33%
Note: PPP = Public-Private Partnerships, ADB = Asia Development Bank
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Lack of
competences
Competences for
sustainable planning
and implementation
are in shortage
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
India case: Expected development in funding
of regional projects in India Competition for resources is fierce.
Because of growth pressures and
capital constraints, compromises
are often reached to serve more
interests rather than to serve more
people more effectively
The World Bank – Ecological Cities
as Economic Cities 2010
Cities in developing countries face
much tougher challenges than do
their counterparts in developed
countries. Technical capacity is
often lacking
The World Bank – Ecological Cities
as Economic Cities 2010
14
Case 1: Veolia and Suez
Global leaders in water, French
Veolia Environnement (Vivendi)
and Suez Environnement have
partnered on PPP water
projects and have pioneered
the PPP model, injecting
finance into the system and
driving market growth and
consolidation.
In a PPP, ownership of assets
remains public and only certain
functions are delegated to a
private company for a specific
period.
Case 2: Toshiba
The Japanese major global
player Toshiba is driving some
part of the Delhi Mumbai
Corridor through large scale
PPP projects funded by Japan
Inc.
Consortium of Japanese
companies (Toshiba-Tokyo
Gas-NEC) have signed a MoU*
on a priority ECO-city project.
Case 3: Keppel Corp
Tianjin Eco-city is sponsored
by Keppel Corp from
Singapore.
The Keppel Group was
entrusted to lead the Singapore
private sector consortium for a
bilateral co-operation project
and works in close tandem with
a Chinese consortium partner
to guide the 50-50 joint venture
– Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-
City Investment and
Development Co.,
Ltd. (SSTEC) – in its role as
master developer of the Tianjin
Eco-city.
The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering
regimes
THE GLOBAL CLEANTECH CHALLENGE
* Memorandum of Understanding
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Case 4: Siemens
Siemens' new Infrastructure &
Cities Sector will manage the
company's global business with
cities and infrastructures. The
new Sector, with around 87.000
employees, will contain the
Mobility and Building
Technology Divisions from the
Industry Sector, as well as the
Power Distribution Division and
Smart Grid business from the
Energy Sector.
Key Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) success cases
15
Table of contents
EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
p. 3
p. 4
p. 5
p. 6
p. 7
p. 9
p. 10
p. 11
p. 12
p. 13
p. 15
p. 16
p. 17
p. 18
1) Executive summary
The cleantech platforms and global markets: a sector in growth
• The cleantech sector will continue to grow towards 2015 with green buildings, smart grid and offshore wind as the fastest-growing platforms
• The “centre of gravity” for cleantech growth is moving East and West
• The megacities are the main growth engines as ECO-city ambitions and principles seem to be "the new normal"
• The world's urbanisation rate will continue to be rapid, and large investments will be made in developing megacities and suburb areas
• The six megacity cleantech clusters – including the four American Hotspots and the two Great Turks – will account for the majority of the cleantech growth
The global cleantech challenge: a complex value system
• To unleash the full global potential, the cleantech sector must cross the cost of energy chasm and accelerate the industrialisation
• Complex value-creation models need to be investigated and developed in order to meet the demand for competitive integrated solutions with local content
• The traditional Go-to-Market approaches will not be suitable when addressing this new market as demand is moving towards complex value systems
• Large Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will be a cornerstone to overcome shortage in capital and competences in the "greening" of megacities
• The global majors will presumably lead the industrialisation and set the standards for future partnering regimes
The cleantech sector in a Danish context: an opportunity or a threat?
• Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
• Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
• In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle of the cleantech sector
2) Appendix
16
Clean water 1. Grundfos
2. Novozymes
3. 7T
1. Top 50
2. Top 100
3. Top 50
Green buildings
1. Rockwool
2. VKR
3. Grundfos
4. Danfoss
5. Kamstrup
1. Top 5
2. Top 10
3. Top 10
4. Top 10
5. Top 50
Onshore wind
1. Vestas
2. Siemens
3. AH industries
4. Hydratech
1. Top 10
2. Top 10
3. Top 10
4. Top 10
Smart grid 1. DONG Energy
2. EnergiNet
1. Top 50
2. Top 50
Solar 1. Danfoss Power Electronics 1. Top 50
Offshore wind
1. Vestas/Siemens
2. DONG Energy
3. A2Sea
4. NKT
5. Bladt
1. Top 5
2. Top 5
3. Top 5
4. Top 10
5. Top 10
Solid waste 1. DONG Energy
2. Kommune Kemi
3. Hårslev Industries
1. Top 50
2. Top 50
3. Top 10
Bioenergy 1. Babcock
2. Novozymes
3. DONG Energy
1. Top 10
2. Top 10
3. Top 50
Clean road transport 1. Better Place
2. Danfoss
1. Top 10
2. Top 20
Maritime cleantech 1. Desmi
2. Alfa Laval Aalborg
3. AP Møller Maersk
1. Top 10
2. Top 5
3. Top 5
Today, Danish companies are well-positioned to capture value in the attractive parts of the cleantech sector
* Indicative global rating in niche market, e.g. Rockwool in the insulation market or Grundfos in the water utility equipment market based on MEC Intelligence analysis
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
Cleantech industry Competence level in DK Global market size 2015 Sample companies Global ranking within market*
17
Business cases
Innovation
Markets
Partners
Sales and marketing
Customer relations
Business models
Neglecting the change agenda can be lethal to both small and big companies in the Danish cleantech sector
THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
Bu
sin
es
s s
trate
gy
Va
lue
pro
po
sit
ion
G
o t
o M
ark
et
Strategic focus area
Risk diversification and avoidance
Stand-alone (single bottom line)
Walled garden
BRIC market, Europe and North America
DIY
"Push"
Industrial
From ... ... to
Risk sharing/Risk management
Integrated system business case
(multiple bottom lines)
Open garden
Mega- and large cities focus on global
scale
Partner with lead turnkey providers
Push/pull (key opinion leaders)
Institutional and industrial
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
Products Engineering and "High end" Scalable "mass production" developed
to local needs
18
In the near future, new and more decisive intervention strategies must be developed to win the battle
of the cleantech sector
THE CLEANTECH SECTOR IN A DANISH CONTEXT
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
The right place: large cities
Relations must be build with stakeholder
on city level globally
Community presence
and relationships are
critical to pave the way
for commercial success
in megacities
The right partners: leading solution
providers
Participate in PPP and Partner with
leading solution/turnkey providers
Megacities are
demanding integrated
solutions in which
previously independent
components and
services are bundled
The right offering: local needs and local
value creation
Develop offering and new business
models embracing complex value creation
and multiple bottom lines at local level
Local economies and
societal agendas are
highest priority for
megacity stakeholders
Go-to-market
model
• How can your company best succeed in
the market with the new channel needs
and market logic?
– As a stand-alone company only offering
own products and services
– Through partnerships with other players
offering more integrated solutions
Value
proposition
• To what extent is your stand-alone offering
unique and innovative in the market in
terms of other solutions from competitors
and substitutes?
Business
strategy
• How, and in what order, should you
address the different subsegments
in the market (cities/geographies)?
Organisation
al capabilities
• What are the organisational requirements
needed to be able to address this new
channel/market?
• To what extent do your current governance
and competences match the needs?
Key considerations … Key beliefs … "Recommendations …"
19
Table of contents
1) Executive summary
2) Appendix
Cleantech sectors
• Clean water
• Green buildings
• Onshore wind
• Smart grid
• Solar
• Offshore wind
• Solid waste
• Bioenergy
• Clean road transport
• Geothermal
The Megacity Clusters
EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION
p. 19 + 20
p. 21
p. 22
p. 23
p. 24
p. 25
p. 26 + 27
p. 28
p. 29
p. 30
p. 31
20
As the largest and fastest-growing market globally, Asia dominates the water market as key developed
markets mature
Clean water – CAPEX and OPEX made by Utilities, Municipalities and Industries – Global market across regions, 2010-2015E
(USD billions)
~2% % CAGR (2010-2015)
~5%
~6%
~5%
~7%
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
~3%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
High/Large
Low/Small
2520
Africa
2015 2010
160
Asia
2015
220
2010
3124
Australia
2015 2010
159140
Europe
2015 2010
157142
North America
2015 2010
3325
South America
2015 2010
APPENDIX
ESTIMATE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
21
The capital expenditure in the water sector is expected to grow from USD ~170 billion in 2010 to USD
~245 billion in 2015 or nearly 30-35% of the total water market
Clean water – CAPEX Water and Waste Water Infrastructure – Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~5%
~8% ~9%
~8%
~10%
~6%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
107
Africa
2015 2010
85
54
Asia
2015 2010
128
Australia
2015 2010
62
47
Europe
2015 2010
61
48
North America
2015 2010
13
8
South America
2015 2010
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
22
Europe is projected to be the largest market for green buildings in 2015 followed by North America and
Asia – Asia is expected to grow at almost double the rate of Europe
Green building materials – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~32%
425
107
2015 2010
563
202
2015 2010
00
2015 2010
81
2015 2010
35
6
2015 2010
321
60
2015 2010
North
America
South
America
Europe
Africa and
Middle East
Asia
Australia
N.a. ~52%
~42%
~40%
~23%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
23
Value-wise, the key onshore wind markets are large and stagnant. Growth is coming from new regions
Onshore wind – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~3%
2219
2015 2010
2524
2015 2010
32
2015 2010
92
2015 2010
41
2015 2010
4747
2015 2010
North
America
South
America
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
~11%
~31%
~25%
~0%*
~1%
* Global price-erosion of 5% p.a., based on sample analysis of key turbine manufacturers, balancing out increase in number of GW installed p.a. in Asia
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
24
Asia (China) is expected to become the predominant smart grid market by 2015 growing rapidly from 2010
to 2015 and outpacing both Europe and North America
Smart grid – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~11%
74
2015 2010
94
2015 2010
00
2010 2015
21
2015 2010
71
19
2010 2015
North
America
South
America
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
NA ~21%
NA
~31%
~22%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
00
2015 2010
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
25
2011 was "PEAK Solar". Towards 2015 the European solar market will drop significantly while all other
markets demonstrate strong growth led by North America
Solar energy – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2011-2015E (USD billions)
South
America
~29%
~5%
~-22%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
2011 2015
Asia
14 17
2011 2015
Australia 0 1
2011 2015
Africa 0 0
2011 2015
Europe
82
30
2011 2015
North America
9
26
~30%
2011 2015
South America 0 0
NA. NA.
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
26
Northern Europe is projected to maintain its status as the largest offshore wind market in 2015 and Asia,
North America and South America is projected to experience rapid growth
Offshore wind – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~72%
12
0
2015 2010
38
14
2015 2010
00
2015 2010
20
2010 2015
00
2015 2010
21
0
2015 2010
North
America
South
America
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
NA. ~60%
NA.
~74%
~22%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
% CAGR (2012-2015)
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
27
The global market for solid waste management is expected to grow from nearly USD 425 billion in 2005
to nearly USD 500 billion in 2020
Solid waste* – CAPEX and OPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~3%
~7%
~4%
~3%
* The water market comprises expenditure on both equipment and services. The waste market for Africa is primarily comprised of investment into the collection services
and hence has not been studied. The Australian market is comprised of only 2% of the global market and hence is considered too small to be considered for the study
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
2010
153
2015
184
Asia 2010 2015
Europe
129 149
2010 2015
North America
110 128
1410
2010 2015
South America
APPENDIX
00
2015 2010
00
2015 2010
NA.
NA.
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
28
More than 90% of the expenditure on solid waste is in services or operations. The new investments needed
in the municipal waste management sector are only a fraction of the market size amounting to nearly USD
25-35 billion annually
Solid waste* 10-year investments needed by sector (percentage)
* This investment size might not be realised due to lack of policy and institutional support
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
57
21
8
10
4
Africa
100% = USD 11 billion*
43
12
16
23
6
Asia
100% = USD 86 billion
25
4
10
29
32
Australia
100% = USD 4 billion
Europe
100% = USD 87 billion
53
37
10
0
Mechanical and Biological Treatment
Waste to Energy
Dump Upgrade and Closure
Landfill and Composting
0
Collection and Transfer
South America
100% = USD 16 billion*
33
23
25
19
0
Landfill and Composting
Mechanical and Biological Treatment
Waste to Energy
Dump Upgrade and Closure
Collection and Transfer
North America
100% = USD 45 billion
33
23
25
19
0
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
29
North America to be the largest bioenergy market in 2015 followed by South America and Europe –
Australia is growing rapidly
Bioenergy – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~5%
North
America
South
America
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
~19%
~5%
~4%
~10%
~7%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
19
26
2010 2015
41 52
2015 2010
2010 2015
0 1
2015 2010
5 9
2010 2015
21 27
2010 2015
0 0
Biomass electricity production
Biofuel
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
30
Asia and Europe are expected to become the leading EV and PHEV markets looking towards 2015 followed
by North America
EV and PHEV – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD billions)
~79%
20
2015 2010
50
2015 2010
00
2015 2010
00
2015 2010
00
2015 2010
60
2015 2010
North
America
South
America
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
~73% NA.
NA.
~72%
~94%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
Charging infrastructure
Global market, 2010-2015E (USD billions) 10
2015 2010
~95%
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
31
Asia is poised to become the largest geothermal market in 2015 followed by North America and Europe
Geothermal – CAPEX Global market across regions, 2010-2015E (USD millions)
~11%
899
2015
1.530
2010
336
2015
1.096
2010
142
61
2015 2010
00
2015 2010
00
2010 2015
778
2015
1.922
2010
North
America
South
America
Europe
Africa
Asia
Australia
~18%
NA.
NA.
~20%
~27%
Source: MEC Intelligence; Quartz+Co analysis
APPENDIX
% CAGR (2010-2015)
High/Large
Low/Small
ESTIMATE
INDICATIVE
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
Government support
Addressable market
Solution attractiveness
Five-year market growth potential
Market accessibility
Profit opportunity
32
The top-30 megacities can be divided into six cleantech clusters with the Great Turks growing at the same
pace as Great BRIC+
Segment Cities
Rapid
urbanisation
Lagos
Karaci
Jakarta
Wuhan
Chongqing
Indian
megagrowth
Delhi
Mumbai Kolkotta
Wealth
creators
New York
Beijing
Tokyo
Shanghai
London
Seoul
Great BRIC+
Shenzen
Sao Paolo
Hong Kong
Moscow
Mexico City
Bangkok
Tianjin
Guangzhou
Hangzhou
Bangalore
Great Turks Istanbul
Izmir
American
Hotspots
Los Angeles
Houston
Chicago
Washington
APPENDIX
Note: The majority of these cities have set Eco city targets for e.g. emissions and have Eco city projects under way
Source: MEC Intelligence analysis; Quartz+Co analysis
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 50 100 150 200 250
Lagos
Wuhan
Izmir
Karachi
Bangalore
Hangzhou
Jakarta
Houston
Hong Kong
Chongqing
Washington
Bangkok
Istanbul
Moscow
Kolkata
Tianjin
Chicago
Mexico
Shenzhen
Los Angeles
Guangzhou
Sao Paolo
Seoul
Beijing
Delhi
London
New York
Tokyo
Shanghai
Mumbai
Top-30 absolute GDP growth, 2010-2020 (USD billions)
5.985
2.723
2.152
7.405
2.439
1.442
8.779
1.060
723
4.539
616
1.201
2.581
659
2.824
818
790
2.266
2.592
526
494
2.283
1.226
1.045
9.259
5.768
1.204
463
579
1.069
0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000
Lagos
Wuhan
Izmir
Karachi
Bangalore
Hangzhou
Jakarta
Houston
Hong
Chongqing
Washington
Bangkok
Istanbul
Moscow
Kolkata
Tianjin
Chicago
Mexico
Shenzhen
Los Angeles
Guangzhou
Sao
Seoul
Beijing
Delhi
Mumbai
Shanghai
London
New York
Tokyo
Top-30 absolute population growth, 2010-2020 (103)