Shafqat Farooq PIEAS, Islamabad

Agriculture deals with: 1. Crops,2. Livestock,3. Agro-forestry, and4. Aquaculture

and is critical for: •Poverty reduction•Economic development and•Food security

Constraints of crop sector1.Climate change

2. Immense water shortage3. Salinization of originally productive soils4. Depletion of SOM and unbalanced plant nutrition5. Yield gap/stagnation/decline6. Profitability: increasing cost and deceleration in TFP (Total Factor Productivity) growth,7. Lack of diversity (varieties, cropping system)

A holistic approach mitigating all these problems is required

The Challenge By 2050, the global population will reach 8.9 billion and per capita food consumption will rise above 3100 Kcal per day,

Require 70% increase in agriculture productivity from 1600- 1680 Mha of cultivable land not sufficient to produce the requirement of 40% increased population,

hence 90% of the required increase will come from intensifying farming practices and higher yield

From 1960 till to date, crop yields have increased globally by 77% just by exploiting the genetic potential which has largely been exhausted and required re-evaluation

Many varieties currently are producing only 30-35% of what is agro-ecologically attainable under comparable environments climate change has further aggravated the situation

What are the options?

i. Get help from Genetic engineering/smart breeding/

environment friendly genesor

ii. Revisit strategies

Option-1:GE/smart breeding/environment friendly genes

Recommendation from Lok Sanjh Foundation and the Pakistan Dehqan Assembly (> 600 small, landless farmers and tenants participated)a)Withdraw the Agreement of Intent with Monsanto to introduce Bt cotton,b)Protect Basmati areas from GE and hybrid rice production c)Right to Food should be given priority instead of breeder’s right,d)WTO should be kept out of food and agriculture-related issues,e)The Government should immediately withdraw the Corporate Agricultural Farming Policy and land should be distributed to landless and small farmersf)The agriculture research system must be revamped to focus strictly on local seed varieties

Will option-1 work?

Option-2: Revisit strategies

For this we have to think:i. What is required for crops?ii. What we have?iii.What we need? andiv. What we can have?

What is required in crop sector?Resources comprising land, water and manpower

to make agriculture:

Productive: so that share in GDP can be increased from 19.6 % to 27% by 2015

Profitable: so that it can generate more income with less expenditure and should produce

exportable commodities Competitive: So that it can reduce poverty through

providing livelihood and creation of jobs in the rural areas and Sustainable: so that it should be able to absorb shocks

and remain productive forever.

What we have (Production,000Tons)Year Wheat Rice Cotton Sugar cane

2004-05 21,612 5,025 14,265 47,244

2005-06 21,227 5,547 13,019 44,666

2006-07 23,295 5,438 12,856 54,742

2007-08 20,959 5,563 11,655 63,920

2008-09 20,033 6,952 11,819 50,045

2009-10 23,311 6,883 12,913 49,373

2010-11 24,214 4,823 11,460 55,309¶Required Production ¥ Yield

~ 26,0002750 (2800)*

~7,50002039 (2500)*

~ 21.7725 (1400)***

~70,00055981(56000)**

* Yield increase, ** Area increase, *** Area and yield increase¶ Author calculations based on vision 2015; Source data: Economic survey of

Pakistan 2011, Targets seems largely achievable despite climate change

What we can have?Available Potential

Land 23.13 Mha 6.30 Mha saline0.80 Mha under GTC0.41 Mha under KC0.17 Mha under RC

Water 90.00 MAF 8500 Cusecs in GTC2010-2011 6000 Cusecs in KC

5155 Cusecs in RC19655 Cusecs in total(app. 14.23 MAF)

Manpower: 45% (2010-2011) All those related with newly irrigated areas

What about climate change?

Climate change will have negative impactsWill lower yields (the varieties in hand will not work)

Will increase prices (we are witnessing this)More malnourished children (already 40%)

Require large additional expenditure to:i. Build infrastructureii.Purchase the climate ready genes (55 such families are available or )iii. Pay royalties for growing the patented varieties required to combat adverse impact of climate change

De we have enough resources?

NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research, USACSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organization

If varieties in hands are used

Region 2000 No climate change

With climate changeNCAR

With climate changeCSIRO

South Asia 2424 2660 (+09.79) 2226 (-08.20) 2255 (-06.97)

East Asia and Pacific 2879 3277 (+13.82) *2789 (-03.13) *2814 (-02.26)

Europe and Central Asia 3017 3382 (+12.10) 2852 (-05-50) 2885 (-05.47)

Latin America and Caribbean 2879 2985 (+03.68) 2615 (-09.17) 2628 (-08.72)

Middle East and North America 2846 3119 (+09.60) 2561 (-10-00) 2596 (-08.82)

Sub-Saharan Africa 2316 2452 (+05.87) 1924 (-16.92) 1931 (-16.62)

Developed countries 3450 3645 (+05.70) 3190 (-07.50) 3215 (-06.81)

Developing countries 2696 2886 (+ 07.00) 2410 (-10.60) 2432 (-09.79)

Daily per capita calorie availability with and without climate change by the year 2050

*70% increase is require to meet the demand of increased population , additional increase would be required to meet this deficiencyNCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research, USACSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia

Source data: FAO

The situation will not remain the same with varieties in hands

Production will reduced in Pakistan by < 25%

What about Afghanistan?Will smuggling increase?

Positive aspect: 100 mm more rain. New avenue for cultivation, can increase export to IRAN and Afghanistan

Do we need strategic planning?

Commonwalth Scientific and Industrial Research organization

100-200 mm more rain in Pakistan and in some parts of Iran and Afghanistan will bring new land under cultivation especially in Baluchistan

National Center for Atmospheric research, USA

Hope:

As a consequence of rain,

Increased production will meet the target sets in the vision 2020

How to make the gains sustainable1. Plan strategically (action Pakistan)

2. Develop climate friendly (action global level)

3. Food production for human consumption be given priority over consumption demand

(Action industrial countries) 60% for human, 40% for animal feed which is equivalent to annual calories need of 3.5 billion (> half) of the total 6.6 billion population)

3.Follow the food web and not the food chain(Action developed countries)

Is this not what was suggested by the poor and illiterate farmers in remote Sheikhupura district ?

4. Keep, preserve and save genetic diversity (animal, plants and fishes) because climate crisis need this more than hunger crisis,

(Action researcher/research organization)

The uncertainties of climate change demand a complete rethink of

research especially the breeding priorities. Plant breeders needs to nurture species and genetic diversity in the field

HopefullyIt will be the peasant

farming system that will use genetic diversity and

help crop withstand climate change

because

They did it in the past

Why can’t they do it now?

Courtesy ETC

Courtesy ETC: Action Group on Erosion, Technology and ConcentrationBased in CANADA