THE LOOMING THE LOOMING THREAT OF THREAT OF

GLOBAL GLOBAL COOLINGCOOLING

Geological Geological EvidenceEvidence

for Prolonged for Prolonged Cooling Ahead Cooling Ahead and its Impactsand its Impacts

Don J. Don J. EasterbrookEasterbrook

Western Washington Western Washington UniversityUniversity

THE PAST IS THE KEY THE PAST IS THE KEY TO THE FUTURETO THE FUTURE

To understand present-day climate To understand present-day climate changes, we need to know how climate changes, we need to know how climate has behaved in the past.has behaved in the past.

In order to predict where we are heading, In order to predict where we are heading, we need to know where we’ve been. we need to know where we’ve been.

““Our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift Our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift remotely similar to this. remotely similar to this. Today’s climate pattern has existed Today’s climate pattern has existed throughout the entire history of human civilizationthroughout the entire history of human civilization.”.” (Gore, (Gore, 2006)2006)

““Temperature has spiked within the past few years unlike any Temperature has spiked within the past few years unlike any previous temperature spike in history “ previous temperature spike in history “ (Mote, 2007)

“Current warming is 10 times greater than ever before seen in Current warming is 10 times greater than ever before seen in the geologic record”the geologic record” ((Newsweek, August 13, 2007)

Has climate always been constant before elevated atmospheric CO2?

Natural global warming much more intense than modern

warming has occurred many times in the geologic past without CO2 change

Late Pleistocene abrupt climate changesLate Pleistocene abrupt climate changes ~15,000 yrs ago~15,000 yrs ago, a sudden (only a few years), intense , a sudden (only a few years), intense

climatic warming (~12° C; ~21° F) caused dramatic melting climatic warming (~12° C; ~21° F) caused dramatic melting of huge Ice Age ice sheets. of huge Ice Age ice sheets.

A few centuries laterA few centuries later, temperatures again plummeted , temperatures again plummeted (~11°; ~20° F) and glaciers advanced. (~11°; ~20° F) and glaciers advanced.

~14,000 years ago~14,000 years ago, global temperatures rose rapidly , global temperatures rose rapidly (~4.5°C; ~8° F) and glaciers receded. (~4.5°C; ~8° F) and glaciers receded.

~13,400 years ago~13,400 years ago, global temperatures plunged (~8°C; , global temperatures plunged (~8°C; ~14° F) and glaciers advanced.~14° F) and glaciers advanced.

~13,200 years ago~13,200 years ago, , global temperatures increased rapidly global temperatures increased rapidly (~5°C; ~9° F) and glaciers receded(~5°C; ~9° F) and glaciers receded

12,700 yrs ago12,700 yrs ago global temperatures plunged sharply global temperatures plunged sharply (~8°C; ~14° F) and a 1000 year period of glacial readvance, (~8°C; ~14° F) and a 1000 year period of glacial readvance, the Younger Dryas, beganthe Younger Dryas, began

11,500 yrs ago11,500 yrs ago, , global temperatures rose sharply (~12° C; global temperatures rose sharply (~12° C; ~21° F), marking the end of the Younger Dryas cold period ~21° F), marking the end of the Younger Dryas cold period

Examples of past abrupt global climate changes Examples of past abrupt global climate changes before before CO2 began to rise in 1945CO2 began to rise in 1945

Sudden warming 15,000 yrs ago at end of the Ice AgeSudden warming 15,000 yrs ago at end of the Ice Age Dansgard-Oerscher eventsDansgard-Oerscher events—Rapid warming in decades—Rapid warming in decades

13 Dansgaard-Oeschger events occurred between 13 Dansgaard-Oeschger events occurred between 11,600 and 45,000 years ago 11,600 and 45,000 years ago

Younger DryasYounger Dryas -- Sudden warming 11,500 years ago -- Sudden warming 11,500 years ago -- 5°C over 30-40 years and ~8°C over 40 years.-- 5°C over 30-40 years and ~8°C over 40 years.

Medieval Warm Period Medieval Warm Period 900-1300 AD900-1300 AD

Little Ice Age Little Ice Age – Sudden cooling 400 years ago– Sudden cooling 400 years ago

Historic fluctuationsHistoric fluctuations

Abrupt Younger Dryas climate Abrupt Younger Dryas climate change change

Nine ice sheet advances and Nine ice sheet advances and retreats retreats

in 1500 yearsin 1500 years

Sudden cooling and warming, Sudden cooling and warming, Greenland ice coreGreenland ice core

Warm/cool periods past 5000 yearsWarm/cool periods past 5000 years

25 yr warm/cool cycles from 25 yr warm/cool cycles from 1818O isotopes in O isotopes in the Greenland ice corethe Greenland ice core

Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice AgeAge

Both Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age have Both Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age have long been well documented with strong geologic long been well documented with strong geologic evidence. evidence. GeorefGeoref lists 485 papers on the Medieval lists 485 papers on the Medieval Warm period and 1413 on the Little Ice Age for a total Warm period and 1413 on the Little Ice Age for a total of 1900 published papers.of 1900 published papers.

When Mann/Briffa contended neither had happened When Mann/Briffa contended neither had happened and climate had not changed in 1000 years, and climate had not changed in 1000 years, geologists didn’t take them seriously and thought geologists didn’t take them seriously and thought either (1) the trees they used were not climate either (1) the trees they used were not climate sensitive, or (2) they had used inappropriate data.sensitive, or (2) they had used inappropriate data.

Mann “hockey stick” vs. reality

A group of scientists in the UK and USA group of scientists in the UK and US

1. Constructed a climate history that 1. Constructed a climate history that suppressed the Medieval Warm Period or suppressed the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age, a major argument of the Little Ice Age, a major argument of CO2 advocates.CO2 advocates.

2. Doctored climate data to show increase 2. Doctored climate data to show increase global warming global warming and suppress global and suppress global cooling. cooling.

3. Hid or deleted data that didn’t support 3. Hid or deleted data that didn’t support their beliefs.their beliefs.

4. Took over journal editorial boards to 4. Took over journal editorial boards to suppress opposing views.suppress opposing views.

5..Suppressed the research of scientists 5..Suppressed the research of scientists who didn’t agree with themwho didn’t agree with them

6. Reviewed their own publications and 6. Reviewed their own publications and claimed only “peer reviewed” papers were claimed only “peer reviewed” papers were validvalid

Maunder MinimumMaunder Minimum

Global cooling occurs during times of Global cooling occurs during times of few sunspots and low solar irradiancefew sunspots and low solar irradiance

Correlation of SOI and solar activityCorrelation of SOI and solar activity

Two periods of global warming and two periods of global cooling have occurred in the past century

Correlation of glacial

fluctuations, global

temperature, and

Pacific sea surface

temperature

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

The Pacific Ocean has two modes—a warm

mode and a cool mode—and regularly switches

back and forth between them on a 25-30 year

cycle.

The PDO has strong correlations with global

climate—when the PDO is warm, climate is

warm; when the PDO is cool, climate is cool.

GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS

CLIMATE CHANGES

PDO-AMO MODE CHANGES

WHAT DRIVES PDO-AMO MODES?

PDO COLD MODE (1945-77) PDO WARM MODE (1977-98

Sea surface temperaturesSea surface temperatures

1997

2007

2001

1999

March, March, 20092009

May 7,

2010

Past and predicted PDOPast and predicted PDO

Computer models are the Computer models are the only basis for claiming only basis for claiming CO2 is causing global CO2 is causing global warming. IPCC models warming. IPCC models predicted 1ºF warming predicted 1ºF warming from 2000 to 2010.from 2000 to 2010. However, no warming However, no warming beyond the 1998 level so beyond the 1998 level so the models have been the models have been proven wrong. proven wrong.

It’s all

about

money

and

power

Impacts of global coolingImpacts of global cooling Global cooling is far more harmful to humans than Global cooling is far more harmful to humans than

global warming because:global warming because:

1. Twice as many people are killed by extreme cold 1. Twice as many people are killed by extreme cold than by extreme heat. than by extreme heat.

2. Decrease in global food production—hardest hit 2. Decrease in global food production—hardest hit will be third-world countries where millions are now will be third-world countries where millions are now near starvation levels. near starvation levels.

3. Increase in per capita energy demands.3. Increase in per capita energy demands.

4. Decreased ability to cope with the population 4. Decreased ability to cope with the population explosion (>50% increase in next 40 years). explosion (>50% increase in next 40 years).

ConclusionsConclusions Numerous, abrupt, short-lived warming and cooling episodes Numerous, abrupt, short-lived warming and cooling episodes

much more intense than recent warming/cooling occurred much more intense than recent warming/cooling occurred during the late Pleistocene, none of which could have been during the late Pleistocene, none of which could have been caused by changes in atmospheric COcaused by changes in atmospheric CO22. .. .

Climate changes in the geologic record show a regular Climate changes in the geologic record show a regular pattern of alternate warming and cooling with a 25-30 year pattern of alternate warming and cooling with a 25-30 year period for the past 500 years.period for the past 500 years.

Strong correlation between solar changes, the PDO, glacier Strong correlation between solar changes, the PDO, glacier advance and retreat, and global climate allow us to project a advance and retreat, and global climate allow us to project a consistent pattern into the futureconsistent pattern into the future..

Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been.more damaging than global warming would have been.

Dogma is an impediment to the free exercise of thought. It paralyses the intelligence. Conclusions based upon preconceived ideas are valueless. It is only the open mind that really thinks. Patricia Wentworth, 1949

““Two things are infinite: the Two things are infinite: the universe and human universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.” about the universe.” Albert Albert

EinsteinEinstein. .