Energetika XXISaint Petersburg, 14 November 2019
Prof. Dr. Manfred Hafner- Johns Hopkins University - School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS-Europe) - SciencesPo - Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA),- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
Global Decarbonization:Challenges and Options
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Nov. 2018: The IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C” presented new scenarios:1.5°C scenarios require halving emissions by ~2030, net-zero by ~2050, and negative thereafter
Towards a Zero Carbon World
An additional 2 bn people worldwide means growing mobility requirements, rising electricity needs for homes and other buildings, and increasing energy supplies to power industry
The World’s population will rise by 25% by 2040,reaching about 9 billion people
5) Energy demand: there is a major shift happening between developed and developing countries
5) Energy demand: there is a major shift happening between developed and developing countries
6) The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
4%
65%
10%
8%
8%5%
OECD
Non-OECDAsia
MiddleEast
Africa
Latin America
Eurasia
Share of global growth2015-2035
480
Brazil1 540
India
1 000Southeast
Asia
4 060
China
1 030
Africa
2 240UnitedStates 440
Japan
1 710
Europe1 370
Eurasia
1 050MiddleEast
Source: IEA, New Energy Policy Scenario
Oil
Advancedeconomies
Developingeconomies
Gas
Advancedeconomies
Developingeconomies
Diverging demand patterns in advanced and developing economies
The increase in demand would be twice as large without continued improvements in energy efficiency, a powerful tool to address energy security & sustainability concerns
Coal
Advancedeconomies
Developingeconomies
IEA New Energy Policies: Change in global energy demand, 2017-2040
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
Renewables & nuclear
Mtoe
Advancedeconomies
Developingeconomies
Ren
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Nuclear
Industry
Other
Power
Cars
Other
Petro-chemical
Cars
Power
Other
Power
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Technological progress and digitalization has already revolutionized the international energy markets
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Technological progress is not limited to RES : upstream oil&gas is going digital !
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Oil&Gas Service Companies are partnering with IOCs and NOCs in the digital space to improve reliability and efficiency.
This results in more recoverable resources and lower cost.
The ongoing unconventional Gas and Oil Revolution in the US
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US Total Oil Supply
The US Tight Oil revolution
continues
Different trends in oil & gas import dependency
In the context of a more diversified global gas market, dependence on imported oil and gas rises in many countries,
though the US swims against the tide
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Oil imports
Gas Imports
United States
ChinaIndia
European Union
Japan
2010
2035
20%Gas Exports
Source: IEA
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High and increasing oil prices are not the norm…
Global Coal demand is expected to flat-line
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Source: BP Energy Outlook 2019
Global Coal demand flat-lines, with falls in China and OECD, offset by gains in India and other emerging Asian countries
China invests heavily in Renewables and Gas to address local pollution
Smog in Beijing !
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Renewable capacity growth by country/region (2000-23)
Annual net electricity capacity additions by source (2001-17)
Source: IEA, 2018
Renewable energies are building up massively
…but we are just talking about the additional generation
Electricity generation growth by fuel (2006-23)
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we need to reduce the existing CO2 emitting power plants
Electrification is ongoing……but still mainly based on coal and gas
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Electricity demand has increased by around 70% from 2000 to 2017, while the power mix remains dominated by coal and gas,
even with growth in renewables
Source: IEA, 2018
Coal in the EU: One Quarter of the electricity –> Three Quarters of the Emissions
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In the EU we have successfully invested heavily in RES, but not significantly reduced coal consumption
(this is bad for the climate, the environment, and human health)
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27 years of climate policy have not delivered !
1992 Earth Summit in Rio the Janeiro
24 COPs : (COP1 in Berlin 1995 to COP 24 in Katowitce in 2018)
COP 25 in Madrid 2019),
COP-3: Kyoto (1997),
COP-21: Paris (2015)
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In the EU between 1990 and 2016:- GDP: +54%- Energy use: - 2%- GHG -22%
CO2 emissions in 2017 and 2018 have increased strongly
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Over the last two years, CO2 emissions have increased by more than 500 MtCO2 per year, equivalent every year to the total emissions from international aviation.
The increase in emissions was driven: by higher energy consumption resulting from a robust global economy, as well as from weather conditions in some parts of the world that led to increased energy demand for
heating and cooling.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: IEA, 2019
We need to get to zero emissions by 2050 and then negative !
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EU GHG emissions trajectory in a 1.5°C scenario
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Source: European Commission (November 2018) – «A Clean Planet for all: A European long term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy»
LULUCF – Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
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So
So
Decarbonization: More growth, more efficiency, more low carbon
GDP, Primary Energy and CO2 pathway to low-carbon
Decoupling GDPand energy
Decarbonisation of energy mix
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
GDP
TPED
CO2 in-tensity (ESCII)
Inde
x 20
10=
100
Source: IEA
Energy transitions have always existed, but they take time…
Source:Vaclav Smil
… and we are running out of time !
Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe.
Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.
Disruptive Change
Source: Campanale, Carobntracker
Digitalization will change our lives and allow further decarbonization
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2-3 April, 2019 - Milan ‘Roadmap towards Total Decarbonization in 2050‘ Workshop
100+ experts attended from all over the world
Drafting & consultation process shared with 150+ experts from key public and private institutions
https://roadmap2050.report/static/files/roadmap-to-2050.pdf
Roadmap 2050: A Manual for Nations to Decarbonize by Mid-Century
Power- Progressive
phase out of traditional sources
- Mix of RE solutions
Industry- Focus on
hard-to-abate segments Cement, Iron and Steel, Petrochemicals
- Direct & Indirect Emissions
Transport- Focus on
Roadways, Railways, Airways and Navigation (short and long haul)
Buildings- Guidelines for
new buildings- Retrofitting
strategies
Promoting policy instruments and technological solutions across energy-intensive sectors to address multiple objectives:
o Decarbonizationo Environmental Sustainabilityo Economic prosperity Poverty reduction➔o Social inclusion “leave no one behind”
Actions interconnectivity
o No single policy or technology can achieve decarbonization by itself
o combined efforts and technology mix to amplify effects and process acceleration
Roadmap 2050: Systemic, inclusive and flexible approach
Renewable energy sources
Zero-carbon technologies
Public-Private investments
Natural and engineered systems
Mitigation-Adaptation strategies
Centralized-Decentralized solutions
Actions in different geographies
R&D activities funded by Public and Private actors
Complementarities
Roadmap 2050: Systemic, inclusive and flexible approach
Roadmap 2050: Six Pillars for Decarbonization
Zero-carbonElectricity
Electrification of end uses
GreenSynthetic Fuels
SmartPowerGrids
MaterialsEfficiency
Sustainableland-use
Power generation from renewables – cost decreases
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Watch China: massive deployment expected for offshore wind, CSP and batteries
Flexibility options
37 Source: IRENA
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Electricity storage:
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Depending on the storage needs there are different solutions
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We need better and cheaper batteries and a tremendous upscaling development
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There are high expectations on further battery developments and deployments Issues:
- upscaling - market concentration- rare earth material,
Smart Grids and Internet of Things (IoT)
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From unidirectional to multidirectional electricity systems.
Sector Coupling – Power-to-Gas (or Power-to-X)
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The high capex need to be compensated by technological improvements
Sector Coupling – Grid-to-Vehicles-to-Grid
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Source: www.cenex.co.uk
Deployment of electric vehicles is expected to surge => huge opportunity for grid flexibility. Use of vehicle batteries for grid services involves some issues , e.g.:
o impact of high frequency cycles on battery life, o massive need of vehicle grid connection
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Source: Global CCS Institute
… but strong challenges remain about: Upscaling, Costs, Public acceptability.
CCS/CCU allows to decarbonize fossil fuel use
BECCS – Bio Energy and Carbon Capture and StorageDACCS – Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage
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BECCS and DACCS act as carbon sinks: BECCS: energy generation but high land use DACCS: high energy consumption but low land use (interesting if low electricity
prices)
• BECCS: CO2 is absorbed by photosynthesis in plants.
• Bioenergy allows to produce electricity.
• CO2 is then captured after combustion, and then stored underground.
• DACCS: CO2 is captured from ambient air with chemical absorbtion and is then stored undergroung
In order to go to net-zero CO2 we need to address all sectors
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Industry and Transport (and buildings) are more difficult to decarbonize… but we need to decarbonize also those !
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(32%)
(25%)
(36%)(12%)
(22%)
(40%)
Difficult sectors/sub-sectors to decarbonize are:
- Industry (cement, iron & steal, chemicals & petrochemicals)
- Transport (heavy duty road vehicles, shipping and aviation)
- Buildings (refurbishing old buildings [1bn], net-zero buildings for new buildings [+1bn by 2050])
Source: IEA (2017)Energy Technology Perspectives
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Source: Energy Transition Commission (2019)
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Hydrogen can be produced out of Natural Gas or out of electricity:- Steam Methane Reforming + CCS - Pyrolysis (Methane cracking) - Electrolysis using zero carbon electricity
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Individual behavioral changes can also make a change
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Internalizing externalities !
But also:
individual behavioral changes can make the
difference:
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Source: CE Delft
- bicycle,- public transportation,- car sharing,- Etc.
Conclusions (a few words on Governance)1) We need to decarbonize (zero carbon by 2050 and then negative) and we are
running out of time !
2) We need «just», «inclusive» and «holistic» approaches to create «ownership» for all stakeholders, in order to avoid back-lashes, carbon leakages, etc. (We need to tackle the socio-economic and international dimension of the Energy Transition)
o People (including the poor, creating awareness, schools, Fridays for Future) -> behavioural changeso Companies -> public corporate responsibilityo Countries -> we need a convincing narrative finding winning arguments for all
developed and emerging countries [decarbonization will bring about vast co-benefits of public health, especially through reduced air pollution],
consumer and producer countries [e.g. H2] poorest countries (e.g. Sub-Saharan Africa) are not the problem, they can be given added flexibility
3) Market mechanisms alone seem not to deliver => we may need mandates with pricing as accompanying measures o Create a competitive market place for Innovation, provide public-private R&D for priority challenges, but
mandates for deploymento E.g: phasing out of incandescent light bulbs, coal Power Plants, o E.g. “The Montreal Protocol” of 2012: Ending the Reign of Fluorocarbonso Mandates: Low Carbon Standards not picking Technologies
(eg: mandate full fuel cycle «low carbon vehicle standards», not «electric cars»)
4) We may need to seriously think about «Adaptation» and how to help the poor countries