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Global dynamics of critical metals
or
What’s so special about critical metals?
Andrew Bloodworth
British Geological Survey
Hemerdon tungsten project
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Structure
• How do critical metals
compare/ contrast with
other mineral
commodities?
• How might business
models for primary
resource development
evolve?
• A geological perspective
on access to critical metals
from secondary (recycled)
resources
Altered zoned allanite (up to 50% REE), NW Scotland
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Mineral and metal commodity
groups
• Construction minerals
• Fossil fuels
• Industrial metals (Fe, Al, Cu, Pb,
Zn etc..)
• Precious metals (Au, Ag, PGMs)
• Industrial minerals (asbestos …
zeolite)
• ‘Critical metals’ (REEs, Sb, Te,
Re, Ge, Ga etc…)
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Volume, value, variety
• Volumes produced low compared to industrial
metals
• Low aggregate value compared to industrial metals
and precious metals
• Wide variety of metals used in a range of
applications
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Volume
• Leads to tendency production concentration of CM
1,224,000,000
36,900,00018,300,000
123,00062,300
429
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
1000000000
10000000000
To
nn
es
Steel Aluminium Copper REOs Tungsten PGMs
Production of selected industrial and critical metals, 2009 (Source: BGS World Mineral Production)
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Value
• Despite indicative prices, size of CM market is small
compared to that for precious and industrial metals
2009 Data from Ernst & Young
0,15
0,028
48900
575
30
600
0,01 0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Iron ore
Bauxite
PGMs
Indium
Tungsten
Gallium
Indicative price ($/Kg)
345000
5628
11746
345
1795
47
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Iron ore
Bauxite
PGMs
Indium
Tungsten
Gallium
Indicative annual market size ($m)
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Variety Industrial metals
Precious metals
EU critical metals
Additional metals/
metalloids in mobile devices
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Other critical metal characteristics
• Difficult extractive metallurgy
• May be co-products
• Complex, diverse applications and markets
• Not usually traded openly
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Commercial development?
• Many CM projects are currently owned by SMEs with no
existing source of revenue
• Funding requires proven project design and firm sales
contracts
• Operator must demonstrate ability to produce consistent
pilot plant output to precise customer specifications
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How might business models
develop?
• With some exceptions, low level of
interest in CM from major mining
companies to date
– “[critical metal] markets still remain
small in comparison to other minerals
such as bauxite and iron ore. As a
result, they are yet to attract the full
attention of the mining community”
Ernst & Young, 2010
• Some developments may move toward
vertically-integrated model, with major
consumers investing directly in mines to
secure supply
• Analogous to current links between
fluorspar extraction and fluorochemical
manufacturers
Okorusu fluorspar mine, Namibia
(owned by Solvay Fluorine Industries)
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Alternative business models
• Many CM developments will need to supply niche
products ‘engineered’ for niche markets
• Requires close relationship with customers and high
level of investment in process technology
• analogous to current paradigm for supply of
industrial minerals such as kaolin, silica or calcium
carbonate
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Source: IMCOA
Inertia
• From discovery to mine to market can take
years – REO projects estimated between 7
and 20 years (Mount Weld was discovered in
1970).
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Technological development
and uptake
• speed of technological
development + uptake +
supply inertia can lead to
short/ medium term CM
shortages
Source: IEA
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A geological perspective on
access to secondary resources
• Access to secondary CM resources
controlled by anthropogenic
concentration/ dispersion processes
• Concentrated = accessible/ low cost
• Dispersed = inaccessible/ high cost
• Concentration/ dispersion processes
depend on technological, economic and
social factors and their interaction
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Dispersion: low content/ high
impact per unit
• 2-3g platinum group metal (PGM) in average car
• Autocatalyst converts > 90% of hydrocarbons, carbon
monoxide and NOx + 30-40% particulates from internal
combustion engines to CO2, N2 and H2O
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High volume consumption + low unit
content = major dispersion
• 1.6 billion mobile phones and 350
million PCs/ laptops manufactured
globally in 2010
Equates to:
• 189 000 tonnes Cu (<1% global production)
• 750 tonnes Ag (4% global production)
• 115 tonnes Au (4% global production)
• 42 tonnes Pd (19% global production)
• 17 800 tonnes Co (23% global production)
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Sustainable, ‘circular’ economy
Manufacture
Use
End of life
Metal
production
Primary
resources
(mining)
Residues
Residues
Residues Recycling
Residues
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Dispersion-concentration:
critical metals in mobile devices
Metal dispersed Metal
concentrated
Metal in use Metal dispersed
Earth’s crust Mine/ refinery Society
Extr
actio
n
Manufa
ctu
re
End o
f lif
e
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Mobile devices as a polymetallic ore
body
• Although 95% of Cu
and precious metals
recovered, less than
50% of total metal
content captured
during smelting
• Most of CM content
is dispersed below
cut off grade and/ or
extractive metallurgy
too difficult
• Price of CM
determines cut off
grade
Li, Co Cu, Ta,
Pd, Au,
Al, Fe,
etc
W,
REEs
Si, Al,
Na, In Mg, Al
Au
C, H, Cr
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Access to the ore body: current reality
of mobile device recycling
• Social barriers to ore body access (‘stored in drawer’)
• Technical barriers to concentrate recovery
• Cost barriers to recovery of metal inventory
• Good news for economic geologists, especially if
upward consumption of CM continues
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Living in a
material world
• Relatively low production volumes and value mean that
many critical metals may currently have less
commercial appeal than industrial and precious metals
• Variety of output types and wide range of applications
gives critical metals some similarities with industrial
minerals
• Business models for CM supply are immature
• Inertia in development hard to overcome and shortages
may occur as a result of rapid technology change/
uptake
• Social, technical and economic factors severely
constrain access to secondary CM resources
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Thank you
www.mineralsUK.com
Loch Loyal syenite
complex: An area of REE
mineralisation in NW
Scotland