1

IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Global Energy AssessmentGlobal Energy AssessmentToward a Sustainable FutureToward a Sustainable Future

Nebojsa NakicenovicNebojsa NakicenovicDirectorDirector

www.www.GlobalEnergyAssessmentGlobalEnergyAssessment.org.org

2

GEA Launch RIO+20, 19 June 2012

Kandeh Yumkella, DG UNIDO, referred to the GEA report as the “energy bible”.

Josè Goldemberg, Yong Ha Kim, H.E. Nguyen Thien, L. Gomez-Echeverri, Pavel Kabat, Hasan Mahmud, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto

3

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

● Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers> 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years

● # of Reviewer comments: >6000● # of Language Editors:15● # of Copy Editors:15● # of Figures: ~ 650● # of Tables: ~ 380● # of References: >7000

● # of Pages (Published): ~1864 Pages● Single volume of 5.5 kg

4

External Funding Partners

5

GEA Council● Ged Davis – GEA Co-President● José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo● Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc.● Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)● Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF)● Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory● Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF)● Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China● Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC)● Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria● Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)● Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency● Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)● Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)● Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras● Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development

(IRADe)● Jamal Saghir, World Bank● John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science

(ICSU)● Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social

Affairs (UNDESA)● Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)● Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)● Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament● Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the

University of East Anglia● Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament● Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation● Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization● Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China

6

GEA Executive Committee● Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden ● Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India● Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria● Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia● Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)● Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)● He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment)● Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment)● Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment)● Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health)● Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security)● Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy)● Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials)● Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry)● Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport)● Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings)● Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy)● Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy)● Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy)● Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage)● Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy)● Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)● Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)● Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems) ● Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development)● Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation)● Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)● Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)● Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy)● Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy)● Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments)● Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access)● Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development)

7

Authors and Editors of GEA (1 of 2)

8

Authors and Editors of GEA (2 of 2)

9

Reviewers of GEA

10

The Global Energy ChallengeMajor transformations are required if future energy systems are to be affordable, safe, secure, and environmentally sound. There is an urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive strategy to help resolve the following challenges:

Providing clean and affordable energy services for all; Increasing energy security for all nations, regions, and

communities; Reducing GHG emissions to limit global warming to

less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels; Reducing indoor and outdoor air pollution from fuel

combustion and its impacts on human health; and Reducing the adverse effects and ancillary risks.

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 Energy Goals

●Universal Access to Modern Energy

●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

12

KF6 Universal Access by 2030

Universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking fuels and stoves can be achieved by 2030; this will require innovative institutions, national and local enabling mechanisms, and targeted policies, including appropriate subsidies and financing.

Enhancing access among poor people, especially poor women, is essential for increasing standards of living;

Universal access to clean cooking technologies will substantially improve health, prevent millions of premature deaths, and lower household and ambient air pollution levels, as well as the emissions of climate-altering substances.

13

Mapping Energy AccessFinal energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

Source: Pachauri et al, 2011

14 14

Gas Hydrates~6,600 – 57,000

GtCO2

Present Atmosphere

~3060 GtCO2

HistorcialEmissions

~1900 GtCO2

~850 GtCO2

Cumulative Emissions for 2oC

Stabilzaiton

PreidustrialAtmosphere

~2000 GtCO2

Coal~ 30,000 GtCO2

Biomass~1,600–1,650

GtCO2

N. Gas~340–500

GtCO2

Oil~660–1,000

GtCO2

Unconv. . Oil~1,100–1,500

GtCO2

Unconventional Gas~4,550 GtCO2

~2450 GtCO2

Gas Hydrates~100,000 GtCO2

Solar62,000‐280,000 EJ/yr

World Energy Use (2005)500 EJ

Geothermal810‐1545 EJ/yr

Biomass160‐270 EJ/yr

Hydro50‐60 EJ/yr

Wind1250‐2250 EJ/yr

Renewable Energy Potentials

Ocean3240‐10,500 EJ/yr

16

KF1 TransformationThe GEA analysis demonstrates that a sustainable future requires a transformation from today’s energy systems to those with:

Radical improvements in energy efficiency, especially in end use

Greater shares of renewable energies and advanced energy systems with carbon capture and storage

The analysis ascertained that there are many ways to transform energy systems and many energy portfolio options.

Large, early, and sustained investments, combined with supporting policies, are needed to implement and finance change.

17

Energy Access

Energy SecurityEnvironment

“Technology Drive”

“Env

ironm

enta

l & S

ocial

Awar

enes

s”

“Regional Diversity”

GEA Scenarios & Energy Challenges

MixEfficiency

Supply

SustainableDevelopment

181850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

MicrochipCommercial

aviation

TelevisionVacuum

tubeGasolineengine

Electricmotor

Steam engine

Nuclearenergy

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclearNuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy

191850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclearNuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energyno CCS, no Nuclear

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

~35% renewables by 2030

Oil phase-out (necessary)

Nuclear phase-out (choice)

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

201850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclearNuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary Energylim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

~35% renewables by 2030

Oil phase-out (necessary)

Limited Intermittent REN

Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – “negative CO2”

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Source: Source: RiahiRiahi et al, 2011et al, 2011

22

KF2 Immediate Action

An effective transformation requires immediate action to avoid lock-in of invested capital into energy systems and associated infrastructure that is not compatible with sustainability goals

Long infrastructure lifetimes mean that it takes decades to change energy systems

For example, by 2050 almost three-quarters of the world population is projected to live in cities offering a major opportunity for transforming energy systems

23

Supply Technologies Cost Trends

Source: GEA, Chapter 24, 2012 and Grubler and Wilson 2012, in press)Source: Grubler et al, 2012

24

KF10 Stable Investment Regimes

A portfolio of policies to enable rapid transformation of energy systems must provide the effective incentive structures and strong signals for the deployment at scale of energy-efficient technologies and systems that contribute to the sustainable development.

The GEA pathways indicate that global investments in combined energy efficiency and supply will need to increase to between US$1.7–2.2 trillion per year compared to present levels of about US$1.3 trillion per year;

Current research and development efforts in these areas are grossly inadequate compared with the future potentials and needs.

25

Global Energy Investments

Annual EnergyInvestments

InnovationRD&D

[billion US$2005]

MarketsFormation[billion US$2005]

PresentInvestments[billion US$2005]

FutureInvestments[billion US$2005]

2010 2010 2010 2010 ‐ 2030

Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 ~400

Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200  ~400

Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 ~40

Total > 50 < 150 1250 ~1750

Source: Grubler et al & Riahi et al, 2012

26

KF8 Multiple Benefits

Combinations of resources, technologies, and polices that can simultaneously meet global sustainability goals also generate substantial and tangible near-term local and national economic, environmental, and social development benefits.

These include increased employment options, new business opportunities, productivity gains, improved social welfare and decreased poverty, more resilient infrastructure, and improved energy security;

These benefits make the required energy transformations attractive from multiple policy perspectives and at multiple levels of governance.

27

Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point

Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)

Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Energy Security Air Pollution & Health Climate Change All Three Objectives

Total Global Policy Costs (2010

‐

2030)

Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point

Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)

Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

28

www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadbGEA Database