GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE SCIENCE

International Human Diemsions ProgrammeInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

2004 and Beyond

The Anthropocene Era

Role and Objective

• to describe and understand Earth System dynamics,

• focusing on the interactive biological, chemical and physical processes,

• the changes that are occurring in these dynamics,

• and the role of human activities in these changes.

IGBP is an international scientific research programme onglobal change. Its objective is:

CHARACTERISTICS OF NEXT DECADE OF GEC RESEARCH

• Strategic partnerships via Earth System Science-Partnership (IGBP + IHDP + WCRP + Diversitas)

• More emphasis on issues of societal concern

• More emphasis on the regional scale

• Global change v climate change

• Science focus on the coupled human environment system

IGBP and IHDP in 2004 - 2005The transition to the 2nd phase and new structure of

IHDP and IGBP is complete. Priorities for 2004 - 2005 are:

• launch the final 2 new joint IHDP-IGBP core projects – GLP and LOICZ

• Implementation of iLEAPS• promote and support a small number of Fast Track Initiatives

(e.g., Fire, Nitrogen, Monsoon Asian Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS))

• enhance links to the observation community (e.g. via IGOS)• model-data assimilation• improved predictability of Earth System dynamics

• contribute to and support ESSP

GHG

VOC, NOx O3

COUPLED HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM

Combined Anthropogenic-Driven Activities

Land • The nature and causes of land system change.

• The consequences of land system change for ecosystem services and Earth System functioning.

• Support for sustainable use of land systems using integrated analysis and modelling.

The IGBP Land Project….…the Ultimate Challenge

• What are the limits to adaptability? Resilience? Sustainability?

• In terms of land systems, where are the critical thresholds that should not be crossed under any circumstances?

• What changes in the Earth System - nature, magnitude, rate - would be fatal for land systems in the context of modern societies?

• What are the accessible but intolerable domains in the co-evolution space of nature and humanity?

• an integrated study of the Earth System, • the changes occurring to the System, and• the implications for global sustainability.

Earth System Science PartnershipDIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP, WCRP

Implementation• Approaches

– Place-based research studies– long-term observations/experiments– Process models (e.g., vegetation/ecosystem models, agroecosystem

models, agent-based models)– Integrated studies

• Networks / networks of networks– existing GCTE, LUCC, Diversitas (and other EESP) networks– new networks– thematic, specific phenomena, tools

• Case studies– specific systems, e.g. arid, mountains– regional studies - incl. shared with other projects

Canadell et al. 2000

Data-ModelFusion of

Multiple streams of Datasets

OBSERVING EXTENT OF NATURAL DISTUBANCES

J. Logan,USFS

Urban Footprints and Impacts

Pataki 2002GCTE-Focus 1

Urban-Settlement AreaUrban-Settlement Area

Chamedies et al. 1994. Science

Point: Industrial tropospheric pollution [O3] of prime croplands

Point: Area of urban-industrial infrastructure remains small relative to other land-use/cover changes, but its “footprint” has significant land implications.

0.0 0.15 0.30 0.45 0.60

Aerosol Optical Depth

An annually averaged MODIS aerosol optical depth for 2001 (courtesy of David Fillmore and NASA MODIS team)

Global Terrestrial DatasetsGlobal Terrestrial Datasets

• REGIONAL AND PROCESS STUDIES

• FLUX TOWERS

• LAND USE AND INTENSITY STUDIES

• INVENTORY ANALYSIS

time

space1 ha 1 km2 GlobeContinentsRegional

106 km2

centuries

decadal

Inter annual

seasonal

synoptic

Oneatm station

Flask network

EddyFlux

Towers *

Remote sensing

Atm Boundary layer measurements **

Space and time coverage of existing carbon observing networksterrestrial

* uneven geographic coverage **available as pilot studies only

Forest *Inventories

Soil carbon *

Ecological site studies *

From Ciais et al. Igco draft report, June 2002.

SPACE-TIME COVERAGE OF TERRESTRIAL OBSERVATION NETWORK

• Developing and testing theory and models requires integration of complex in situ process data with large gridded data sets.

• Required data are multi-scale, many formats, originating in multiple disciplines.

• Rapid prototyping and development cycle to maximize user control of information systems, implies incorporating existing state-of-the-art components rather than de novo development

• Data systems must allow user-driven, knowledge-based querying of multiple data types

Information Technology for Biogeosciences

User-driven so that information can be retrieved in the form needed for a research question rather than in the stored format(s). Example: Land cover, weather, eddy covariance point fluxes all brought to a common grid for carbon model validation.

Knowledge-based meaning that known properties of one queried variable may influence the retrieval of another variable. Example: known lags between climate and fluxes in the carbon cycle vary between ocean regions and ecosystem types. Example: known instrument characteristics affect the assignment of uncertainties, time-location-view angle affect interpretation and use in computations…

From points to pixels

?

Create high res. productsby coupling high res. imagerywith field and tower data

Aggregate

Correlate

Some graphics courtesy of BigFoot project, layout courtesy of Shunlin LiangMultiple use of airborne or high res. satellite data imply some efficiencies in coordinated activities/sites

Eg., Carbon uptake modeled using satellite inputs checked against eddy correlation data from the Niwot Ridge LTER site

Point observations are characteristic of bioregions but must link to regional management history data for extrapolation to grid scale

Soil Carbon DensitySoil Carbon Density

IGBP (DIS) Global Soils (2000)

Low

High

(kg/m2)

Flux TowersFlux Towers

0.0 0.15 0.30 0.45 0.60

Aerosol Optical Depth

An annually averaged MODIS aerosol optical depth for 2001 (courtesy of David Fillmore and NASA MODIS team)

Extent of AgricultureExtent of Agriculture

DRAFT: Based on EDC’s Seasonal Land Cover Characteristics Data

Free Air COFree Air CO22 Enrichment (FACE) Enrichment (FACE)

FluxNet Tower SitesFluxNet Tower Sites

Global Monitoring NetworksGlobal Monitoring Networks

Based on DeFries et al., 2000

time

space1 ha 1 km2 GlobeContinentsRegional

106 km2

centuries

decadal

Inter annual

seasonal

synoptic

Oneatm station

Flask network

EddyFlux

Towers *

Remote sensing

Atm Boundary layer measurements **

Space and time coverage of existing carbon observing networksterrestrial

* uneven geographic coverage **available as pilot studies only

Forest *Inventories

Soil carbon *

Ecological site studies *

From Ciais et al. Igco draft report, June 2002.

EOS Land Validation Core Sites

Global Sampling and STEP Maintenance

• Live (!!) Database: currently ~2300 sites globally

Northeast Land Cover ProductNortheast Land Cover Product

Agriculture

Agriculture/Natural Vegetation Mosaic

Mixed Forest

Evergreen Needleleaf Forest

Deciduous Broadleaf Forest

Urban

MODIS Vegetation Phenology:What is it?

(Zhang et al. 2003; RSE; Zhang et al. 2004 GCB; Zhang et al. 2004, GRL)

• Quantifies Intra-annual Variation (phenology)– Greenup, maturity, senescence, dormancy

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Julian day

Maturity stabilitySenescence onset

Dormancy onset

Dormancy stability

Duration of greenness

Duration of maturity

Maximum Greenness

Greenup onset

Greenup stability

Maturity onset

Senescence stability

Global Results -2001(e.g., Northern Hemisphere Green Wave)

Credit: Xiaoyang Zhang