Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in Global Tourism
GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
June 30th 2021
GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Fund
1. Rational Behind & Investment Case (Jaume Puig. CEO & CIO GVC Gaesco Gestión, SGIIC and Fund Manager)
3
“For the first time in history, more than
half the world is middle class
thanks to rapid growth in emerging
countries”
World Population growth & Middle Class percentage. Solid Demand
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.aspal Affairs.
Second Among Equals: The Middle Class Kingdoms of India and China. Surjit S. Bhalla. May 21, 2007The Economist. Special Report: The New middle classes in emerging markets. Feb 12th 2009
World Population growth & Middle Class percentage
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Global Tourism: strong historical growth
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
1995-2018:World GDP annualized Growth: +3.8%Global tourism annualized growth: +5.6%
Strong forecasted growth
Global Tourist definitionInternational traveller spending at least one night abroad
Global Tourism Demand
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1,420 million in 2018
1,500 million in 2019
(+3.8%)
2018:World GDP Growth: +3.7%Global tourism Growth: +8.3%
2018-2019 data from UNWTO
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Annualized Growth 1990/2018:
World GDP: +3,6%
International Arrivals: +4,3%
International Receipts: +5,6%
Tourism 3rd largest exporter
sector right after Chemicals and Oil
derivatives.
Global tourism expenditures in 2019*:
+10.4% among the top 10
262,1
184,2
104,890,2
56,243,8 42,2 36,4 33,5
277
144
94
76
4837 33 30 32
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Largest International Tourism Expenditure 2018-2019* (USD Billions) +10.4%
2019 2018
1,9
-4,0
6,7
4,8 4,75,1
4,14,8
3,8
7,2
5,6
3,8
-5,0
-3,0
-1,0
1,0
3,0
5,0
7,0
World Growth % International Tourist Arrivals
*Estimated by the UNWTO not official
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Time is on our side (Generations will swing from Baby Boomers to Millennials and so on…)
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*Source AARP.ORG/RESEARCH
Destination MillennialsGeneration
XBaby
Boomers
International 7% 6% 6%
Domestic 31% 40% 47%
Both 62% 55% 48%
Number of Trips MillennialsGeneration
XBaby Boomers
International 2.7 2.0 1.5
Domestic 3.2 3.8 3.8
Total 4.9 4.9 4.4
Top 3 Trip Types(Int.)
MillennialsGeneration
XBaby Boomers
Bucket List 7% 8% 24%
Summer Vacation 14% 14% 10%
Multi-gen trip 11% 13% 8%
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Time is on our side (Generations will swing from Baby Boomers to Millennials and so on…)
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*Millenials Survey airbnb 2019
% of Chinese millennials surveyed*
Traveling 44%
Purchasing a home 13%
Paying off debt 6%
Purchasing car 16%
Savings 20%
• Boomers were planning on taking a total of 4-5leisure trips in 2019, on which they planned tospend over $6,600 (about 20% to 50% more thantheir Gen X or millennial counterparts).
• Generations flows and swing, perpetuing thedemand as Millennials travel 5 times more thanBoomers at their age back to the 80´s.
• Connections, job, cost, globalizations related tofriends and family also support and push the trend.
*Source Global X 2016
Travel and Tourism Competitiveness
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Travel and Tourism Competitiveness(2019)(140 countries surveyed)
Rank Country Points Rank Country Points
1 Spain 5.4 9 Canada 5.1
2 France 5.4 10 Switzerland 5.0
3 Germany 5.4 13 China 4.9
4 Japan 5.4 19 Mexico 4.7
5 United States 5.3 31 Thailand 4.5
6 United Kingdom 5.2 34 India 4.4
7 Australia 5.1 63 Vietnam 3.9
8 Italy 5.1
Source:World Economic Forum*
The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2019
• World’s Top3: Spain, France, Germany
• 6 European countries out of Top 10
• Japan has recently grown and ranks 4th
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Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index
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Why 300 Places? A limited offer
Traveling a life need instead of Luxury
We can produce more cars
We can produce more watches
We can produce more smartphones
but…
Can we produce more
breathtaking and unique places?
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Limited Supply
ciudad pais o region zona geografica
1 New York New York U.S.A.
2 Paris France Western Europe
3 Walt Disney World - Orlando Florida U.S.A.
4 San Francisco California U.S.A.
5 London England Great Britain & Ireland
6 The Las Vegas Strip Nevada U.S.A.
7 Los Angeles California U.S.A.
8 Rome Italy Western Europe
9 Washington DC District of Columbia U.S.A.
10 Chicago Illinois U.S.A.
11 Venice Italy Western Europe
12 Grand Canyon Arizona U.S.A.
13 Boston Massachusetts U.S.A.
14 Florence Tuscany, Italy Western Europe
15 Niagara Falls and Niagara wine country Ontario Canada
16 South Beach - Miami Beach Florida U.S.A.
17 The San Diego Zoo California U.S.A.
18 Amsterdam Netherlands Western Europe
19 The French Quarter - New Orleans Louisiana U.S.A.
20 The Florida Keys Florida U.S.A.
21 California Wine Country California U.S.A.
22 Lucca and Pisa Tuscany, Italy Western Europe
23 Vienna Austria Western Europe
24 The Pacific Coast Highway and Big Sur California U.S.A.
25 Oahu Hawaii U.S.A.
26 The acropolis - Athens Greece Western Europe
27 Gaudí and La Sagrada Familia - Barcelona Catalonia, Spain Western Europe
28 Yosemite National Park California U.S.A.
29 Madrid Spain Western Europe
30 Pike Place Market - Seattle Washington U.S.A.
31 Sydney Opera House and the harbour Australia Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Islands
32 Maui Hawaii U.S.A.
33 Kennedy Space Center - Cape Canaveral Florida U.S.A.
34 The New Orleans Restaurant Scene Louisiana U.S.A.
35 Hong Kong China East Asia
36 Hawaiì Island (Big Island) Hawaii U.S.A.
37 Independence National Historical Park -PhiladelphiaPennsylvania U.S.A.
38 Stonehenge England Great Britain & Ireland
39 River Walk - San Antonio Texas U.S.A.
40 Yellowstone Wyoming U.S.A.
41 Beijing China East Asia
42 New Orleans's Music Scene Louisiana U.S.A.
43 Old Town square - Prague Czech Republic Eastern Europe
44 The Garden District - New Orleans Louisiana U.S.A.
45 Edinburgh Castle and festivals Scotland Great Britain & Ireland
46 Monaco Monaco Western Europe
47 The hill towns of tuscany Tuscany, Italy Western Europe
48 Tokio Japan East Asia
49 The Pyramids of Egypt Egypt North Africa
50 On and around Piazza del Duomo - Milan Lombardy, Italy Western Europe
51 The french riviera France Western Europe
52 Salzburg: Baroque and Modern Austria Western Europe
53 Savannah's Historic District Georgia U.S.A.
54 Belgian Chocolate Belgium Western Europe
55 Cape Cod Massachusetts U.S.A.
56 Santorini Greece Western Europe
57 chichèn Itzá and Mérida Mexico Mexico & Central America
58 Colonial Williamsburg Virginia U.S.A.
59 The Heart Of Charleston South Carolina U.S.A.
60 Everglades National Park Florida U.S.A.
Source: 1000 Places to See Before You Die (IPAD App.)
Why 300? Limited Global Tourism Supply
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City Region CountryCity Region Country
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Investment Universe
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Business Companies
Airlines 103
Hotels 328
Entertaiment 207
Food & Beverages 299
Travel & Tourism 252
Highways & Airports 62
Luxury 79
Total 1,330
Business Empresas
Airlines 65
Hotels 48
Entertaiment 45
Food & Beverages 100
Travel & Tourism 86
Highways & Airports 37
Luxury 79
Total 460
0.31%10.02%
3.91%
40.59%
44.81%
Australia, NZ & Pacific Islands Asia Japan Europe USA
Investment Universe >250M USD market capitalization
Investment Process & Philosophy (Pure Fundamental, Bottom-Up, Buy & Hold)
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Company Primary Search Qualitative Analysis Fundamental Valuation
Strength of the business and competitive advantage of the company
Analysis of the consistency of the management team through one to one meetings
Analysis of the performance expectations
Medium-term consistency of the
business model
Specialization
Leadership in the sector
Clear sources of profit generation
Margin stability
Cash Flow sustainability
Level of internationalization
Appropriate Financial Structure
Medium and long-term view of the management team
Credibility of the management team. Quality management
Shareholder structure
Companies Visited
Sales, margins, and results expectations
Analysis of the internal cycles of the business activity
Business valuation: discount operating cash flows.
Analysis of the fundamental discounts of the companies
Monitoring the discount lifecycles
Quarterly review
Quantity of the 300 Places Worlwide covered by the companies
300 Places Worldwide more visited by the global tourist
Analysis of any of the company services all over the world
Where do the Airlines fly?
Who has the better Hotelslocations?
Company Meetings: 764 companies. 129 in 2017, 146 in 2018, 161 in 2019, 193 in 2020 and 135 in 2021 ytd
More than 150 meetings average in the last four years
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The Wheel of Traveling
THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY
LAS VEGAS SANDS
WYNN MACAU
VISA
TRIPADVISOR
7. Final Destination&
Much more
BOOKING
TUI AG
FLIGHT CENTRE GROUP
SABRE CORP.
SAMSONITE
1. Travel Planning
JAPAN AIRPORT TERMINALCENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY
2. Travel Hubs
TRIGANOSIXT
AUTOGRILL
ATLANTIAAEROPORT DE PARIS
DUFRY
3. By the Sea
4. Flying
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISESCARNIVAL
LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS
6. The Trip HQ
SINGAPORE AIRLINESRYANAIRWIZZAIRAEGEAN
NORWEGIAN
5. By Road
MANDARIN ORIENTAL
SHANGRI-LA ASIA
MELIA HOTELS
ACCOR
GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Fund
2. Growing demand and opening of borders (Ignacio Hosta, Senior Analyst & Head of Intelligence)
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Recovering Flights & Capacity weekly evolution (June 30th)
Total Number of Flights
*Source:Vertical Knowledge, Jefferies estimates
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When do you have planned to travel?
~80% of ConsumersExpect to Take a Tripin 2021
How Many International Trips Do you Plan to Take in 2022? – 85% likely to flight
in 2022
*Source: Jefferies 1,642 survey who had taken 2 or more trips in 2019 (June 18th)
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Tourism Revenge (Catch-Up Effect)
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*Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Savings Ratio Record High US & EU 2020-2021
*Source: Eurostat
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Facts
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Facts…and more Facts
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Cases, Hospital admissions and Deaths in the UK for coronavirus
each day. Line shows Rolling 7 days avg. 2nd wave taken as starting 30 of Aug 2020, 3rd
wave, 19 May 2021.
*Source: UK Govt. July 1st
GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Fund
3. Portfolio valuation (Pol Companys, Senior Analyst)
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Stress Test Analysis (March 16th 2020): A temporary shock, “once in a decade Investment Opportunity”
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“Companies will be able to survive this TEMPORARY shock”
• Well capitalized companies, backed by strong families as shareholders with ample strategic options like disposal of assets to get through COVID. Ex: MELIA
Capital Increases
• Only 9 out of 43 stocks in our portfolio. All of them successfully covered. Opportunistic long-term Investors investing strongly in the sector.
Portfolio Stress Test
Study
DUFRY CARNIVALNORWEGIAN AIR SHUTTLE
TUI AGFLIGHT CENTRE GROUP
JAPAN AIRPORT
TERMINAL
SINGAPORE AIRLINES
SABRE CORP.
AUTOGRILL
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Scenarios and Sectors vs. MSCI World (September 30th 2020) Buy Before the Vaccine (BBV)
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8
12
16
20
24
8
12
16
20
24
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NAV Consensus Scenario Our base Scenario Pesimist scenario
Before Covid GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide since incenption (2014) to 2019 +9.92% IRR
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Scenarios
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8
12
16
20
24
28
8
12
16
20
24
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NAV Consensus Scenario Our base Scenario Pesimist scenario
In our base scenario expected IRR from September 30th 2020 until Dec 2023
was +34.8%June 30th 2021 expected IRR is +26.6%
GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Fund
4. Sector and Fund Outlook for 2021-2025 (Jaume Puig. CEO & CIO of GVC Gaesco Gestión S.G.I.I.C and Fund Manager)
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New companies added into the portfolio because of a Valuation Call postCovid (I): Airbus
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New companies added into the portfolio because of a Valuation call postCovid (II): Beneteau
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New companies added into the portfolio because of a Valuation call postCovid (III): JC Decaux
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Proven business models within the sector
Vs.
Before Covid50% Cars belongs to Luxury Brands Old fashion style
Deals with OEM’s Cars Owned or LeasingReturns 6 months period No return
Rent-Sharing-Ride-Subscriptions Rent OnlySmall Market Share in US US 2nd Largest Market Share
Covid ImpactFrom 63.93 to 68.40 (+6.99%) From 20.85 to 8.74 (-58.08%)
US Markets Share jumps Chapter 11(7 airports Las Vegas, Orlando,
Denver, New Jersey…)
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Structural Winners
Hospitality Covid winner• TriganoProven Profitability (Low Cost Carrier)• Ryanair• WizzairValuation new additions• Airbus• Beneteau• JC Decaux• …Bargain Hunting• Carnival• Dufry• Airports (From 7.9% in 2019 to
11.8% current), ….
Bankruptcy Winners• Sixt vs Hertz• TUI vs. Thomas Cook• Carnival vs. Pullmantur
DUNKIN BRANDS
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Bid on DUNKIN BRANDS. October 2020. +20% Premium
Bidder : Inspire BrandsBid date: 23/10/20Bid Price: 106.5 USDBid payment: CashPremium related to last close price: +20%
Our action: We accept the BID
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▪ It owns 100% of Marco Polo Airport in Venice (8,8
Millions of passengers in 2015) and 80% of Treviso
Airport (2,4 Millions of passengers in 2015. Low-
cost oriented), both covering the Venice aereal
Access.
▪ In addition, it owns 40% of Verona and Brescia
Airports and 27% of Charleroi Airport
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The Rational Behind of the fund sample: Save Spa
4.5 Million tourist arrivals in 2018
Venice top 10 destinations worldwide
High Demand&
LimitedSupply
IIMonopoly
Very High Demand
Marco Polo
SAVE Bid in April 17
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Fully Sold at the 21 EUR bid
Average cost:12.03 EUR
+74,6%
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Sectors vs. MSCI World
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Oil price and GDP Growth not a concern at the moment – Reflation trade worries is not an issue
Historically USD/Barrel over 94.6$ 86,598,831 * 0.04
-------------------------100.3 * 365
Today 76.8$, much below
Historically 2.6% GDP growth is themínimum level of growth required for
increasing corporate profitsIMF 2018/2019/2020/2021E+3.6%/ +2.9%/ -4.9%/+5.4%
Clearly above that level
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The recovery pace is the key: Airline traffic by type
*Source: Aeroporto Di Bologna 25th March 2021
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Current GVC Gaesco 300 Places Wolrdwide, FI: Whole portfolio recovery pace
✓ GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide FI, current portolio weighted Ebitda Margin:
Pre-Covid (2017-2019): 28.5%
Post-Covid (2025): 30.1% +160 bp margin increase
✓ Net profit recovering the first and sales being the last to recover. Average Time from now on:
• Net Profit: 2.60 years First to Recover• Ebitda Margin: 2.62 years• Ebitda: 2.75 years• EPS: 2.93 years• Sales: 3.15 years Last to recover
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Current GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI. Our fundamental target in 2025
✓ Expected weighted Market Cap Increase from 12/2019 to 12/2025: +51.9%
• Results increase +60.7%
• Increasing number of shares -6.1%
• Multiple normalization -2.7%
Fundamental NAV 12/25
✓ From 12/2019 Fundamental NAV: 35,0 EUR Maximum Expected
✓ From 12/2019 NAV: 25,9 EUR Minimum Expected
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ESG Implementation and Quantification: In Our Approach the key is the ESG Improvement trend
Year % Improve
2007 -4,38%
2008 8,09%
2009 5,00%
2010 7,38%
2011 3,62%
2012 6,33%
2013 1,91%
2014 0,68%
2015 2,24%
2016 3,27%
2017 8,45%
2018 3,44%
2019 11,80%
Source: Bloomberg
23
28
33
38
43
48
Portfolio Bloomberg ESG disclosure score evolution
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% Equity 97.1%
Holdings 43
Sectors % AssetsNumber of
Companies
Hotels 21.3% 7
Airport and motorways 13.9% 6
Bookings 11.4% 3
Airlines 9.9% 7
Cruises 8.9% 3
Airports Stores 6.1% 1
Food & Beverages 5.3% 3
Luxury 4.4% 2
Casinos 4.0% 2
Car Rental 3.6% 1
Travel Agencies 2.8% 2
Advertising 2.2% 1
Motorhomes 1.0% 1
Theme Parks 1.0% 1
Financial Services 0.5% 1
Aircraft Builders 0.4% 1
Pleasure boats 0.3% 1
Regions % AssetsNumber of
Companies
Europe 44.9% 17
US 36.3% 16
Asia ex Japan 11.2% 7
Japan 4.2% 2
Australia 0.5% 1
Ranked (0 to 10)
Value/Growth 5.83
Small/Large 5.76
Portfolio Composition (June 30th)
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Strategy AUM 180.3M€
Spanish Fund AUM 121.8M€
Japanese Fund AUM 58.5M€
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World Tourism Fund (Japan) AUM Vs. NAV (June 30th 2021)
AUM Spanish Fund 121.8M€ AUM Japanese Fund 58.5M€ Total Strategy AUM 180.3M€
4.500
5.500
6.500
7.500
8.500
9.500
10.500
¥100.000.000
¥1.100.000.000
¥2.100.000.000
¥3.100.000.000
¥4.100.000.000
¥5.100.000.000
¥6.100.000.000
¥7.100.000.000
¥8.100.000.000
¥9.100.000.000
AUM NAV
GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Performances July 31st 2021 (Class I) NAV
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YTD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Set Oct Nov Dec
7,95% -0,68% -1,29% 6,82% -4,21% -1,67% 1,43% -0,10% 0,83% 4,69% 2,51%
17,47% 6,49% 6,31% 5,28% -4,24% 1,46% -2,75% 4,12% -5,64% -0,49% 9,47% -0,58% -1,96%
4,15% -10,23% 3,84% 3,78% -0,93% 0,27% -5,36% 4,71% -0,19% 1,25% 1,39% 4,31% 2,31%
19,65% 2,30% 2,07% 3,30% 3,43% 2,14% 0,27% -1,19% 0,23% 2,05% 3,10% -0,39% 0,89%
-6,46% 3,54% -0,15% -2,11% 6,87% 3,63% -2,02% 0,50% -1,58% -1,68% -6,14% 2,80% -9,21%
15,60% 5,58% 1,35% -0,31% 3,20% -8,21% 4,63% 2,17% -3,58% 1,93% 2,26% 3,52% 2,87%
-22,97% -6,67% -15,74% -32,99% 12,13% 3,46% -3,47% -9,13% 13,12% -4,94% -2,18% 32,20% 3,31%
4,81% -7,96% 22,82% 1,64% -0,49% -0,85% -3,17% -4,52%
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide
Annex (Companies)
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▪ Principal operator of hotel reservations, car rentals, airline tickets and
cruises (under the brand priceline.com)
▪ Presence in +220 countries and territories.
▪ 7.40% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
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Booking Holdings
Sector Country Market Cap
Bookings USA 91,912 Million USD
Million USD Sales EBITDAEBITDA
margin
Net
incomeP/E
2019 15066 6061 40,2% 4271
2020 6,756 865 12.8% 238
2021 E 10,314 3,450 33.44% 2,265 54.2
2022 E 14,361 5,636 39.24% 4,195 24.6
2023 E 17,166 6,552 38.2% 4,966 18.9
2024 E 18,584 7,293 39.2% 5,554 16.9
46
Million
USDSales EBITDA
EBITDA
margin
Net
incomeP/E
2019 20825 5500 26,4% 3041
2020 5,595 -1,713 -30.6% -5,793 --
2021 E 4,468 -1,717 -38.4% -5,408 --
2022 E 17,217 3,929 22.8% -13.7 --
2023 E 20,853 5,627 27.1% 1,601 17.5
2024 E 22,472 6,287 28.3% 1,926 14.5
Sector Country Market Cap Employees
Cruises USA 29,040 M USD 11,000
Carnival Corporation
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▪ Global leader in cruiserships with a market share of 47% in
worldwide number of passengers
▪ Operating in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia with 99
ships
▪ Brands: Carnival, Costa, P&O, Princess, Holland American, Aida,
Cunard, Seabgur y Fathom. 10,8 Millions of passangers in 2015
▪ 6.29 % GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
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▪ Multi-brand hotel in 43 Countries:
▪ Luxury: Gran Meliá, ME and Paradisus: 27 hotels
▪ High-end: Meliá and Innside: 119 hotels
▪ Mid-range: Tryp and Sol: 168 hotels
▪ 61% Resorts, 39 % City
▪ Company owns, manage, rent and allow franchise to hotels all around the
world
▪ 5.82% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
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Meliá Hoteles Inc.
Sector Country Market Cap Employees
Hotels Spain 1,448 Million Eur 25,146
Million EUR Sales EBITDAEBITDA
marginNet income P/E
2019 1800 482 26,8% 112,9
2020 530,6 -149.6 -28.2% -537.2 --
2021 E 1,130.7 184.7 16.3% -152.1 --
2022 E 1,501.9 342.4 22.8% -10 --
2023 E 1,685 446 26.5% 77.6 26.7
2024 E 1,773 511 28.8% 141.9 10.2
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Milion CHF Sales EBITDAEBITDA
margin
Net
IncomeP/E
2019 8848 2267 25,6% 20
2020 2,868.7 478.1 16.7% -978.5 --
2021 E 5,398.7 1,341.6 24.8% -349.7 --
2022 E 7,074.1 1,914.8 27.1% 121.7 39.8
2023 E 7,959 2,086 26.2% 388 13.4
2024 E 8,281 2,204 26.6% 342 15.2
Sector Country Market Cap Employees
Airports Stores Switzerland 5,193 M CHF 29,879
▪ Main operator of airport shops worldwide with a market share of 24%
▪ 2,200 shops in 63 countries
▪ 89% revenues at airports, 5% in citites, 4% in train stations and 2% in
cruises
▪ 30% revenues in perfumes and cosmetic articles, 17% revenues in
sweets and food, 15% wines and liqueurs, 13% luxury goods
▪ Duty-free sales (tax-free): 63%, sales Duty-paid sales (with taxes): 37%
▪ 6.12% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
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Dufry, AG
Trigano
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▪ French motorhome manufacturer
▪ 25% market share in Europe
▪ Different factories within the EU
▪ Deep knowledge of the customer needs
▪ François Feuillet: President & CEO
▪ 1.03% Pareturn GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide
Sector Country Market Cap Employees
Motorhomes France3,693
Million EUR6,034
Million EUR Sales EBITDAEBITDAMargin
Net Income
P/E
2019 2328 236 10,1% 167
2020 2,573.8 288.8 11.2% 193.7 --
2021 E 2,709.6 316.3 11.7% 211.1 15.2
2022 E 2,713.0 316.8 11.8% 211.4 13.9
2023 E 2,803 330 11.8% 223 13.5
SIXT
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Sector Country Market Cap Employees
Car Rental and
TransportGermany
4,679 Million Eur
6,202
▪ Leading car rental company in Germany with a 35% market
share and second player in Europe with a 14% market share.
▪ Most profitable company in the sector with a solid financial
position.
▪ 3.62% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
Millions € Sales EBITDAMargin
EBITDA
Net
IncomeP/E
2019 3306 1115 33,7% 239
2020 1,506.1 363.5 24.1% -53.8 --
2021 E 2,132.1 712.6 33.4% 131.8 27.4
2022 E 2,651.1 825.3 31.1% 222.4 13.8
2023 E 3,397 1,149 33.8% 271 12.3
2024 E 2,783 1,085 39% 307 10.9
51
Sector Country Market Cap Employees
Food & Beverages Italy 1,647 M € 3000
Autogrill SpA
| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es
▪ Autogrill S.p.A., an Italian multinational company.
▪ Operates in various countries offering food and beverage and
retail services for people on the move on key motorways,
main rail and air hubs around the world.
▪ The Company conducts the majority of its business in North
America and Italy where it obtained concessions, offering a
wide portfolio of brands and food and beverage products.
▪ 3.81% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
Million EUR Sales EBITDAEBITDA
Margin
Net
IncomeP/E
2019 5,393 798 14.8% 60.0
2020 2,216 215 9.7% -443.5 --
2021 E 3,011 392 13.3% -279.3 --
2022 E 4,043 692 17.1% -32.3 --
2023 E 4,290 753 17.6% 62.2 26.5
2024 E 4,480 820 18,3% 105.0 15.7
52
Sector Country Market Cap Employees
Airlines – B2B Tour
OperatorGermany 4,886 M EUR 60,839
TUI AG
| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com
▪ TUI AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides tourism services
worldwide.
▪ It operates hotels and resorts under the Robinson, Riu, TUI Blue, and
TUI Magic Life brands, as well as involved in the tour operation and
airlines businesses.
▪ The company also operates cruise liners; and provides incoming
agency services. It operates a fleet of 1,600 travel agencies and
online portals; 6 airlines with approximately 150 aircrafts; and 16
cruise liners, as well as approximately 380 hotels.
▪ TUI AG is based in Hanover, Germany.
▪ 2.37% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
Million EUR Sales EBITDAEBITDA
Margin
Net
IncomeP/E
2019 18928 1105 5,8% 521
2020 12,219.1 286.6 2.35% -450.1 --
2021 E 16,420.4 1,338.6 8.15% 303.3 --
2022 E 17,417.6 1,864.8 10.71% 362.7 22.3
2023 E 17,586 1,784 10.1% 361 18.2
2024 E 18,185 1,767 9.7% 382 12.8
53
Economic Outlook & Fund Management
| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es
- Economic Outlook:
• The temporality of this situation
• Vaccines, treatments, speed test are a reality
• Government support
• Crisis are always opportunities
• Investing in other sectors would be a huge opportunity cost
- Stocks’ Pricing dynamics and Behavioral Finance:
• Extreme price drops. As global tourism has been hit worse than other sectors, we expect according to our research and the past, that the recovery will be very strong
and will overpass previous levels sooner than expected.
• Global tourism has shown in the past that if it’s a crisis, this sector it’s the fastest to recover in just one year as it happens after Lehman Brothers collapse.
• Pricing discounting tourism like the virus will never be beaten
- Sector Fundamentals:
• Offer is limited and stable.
• Deand is growing. Historically tourism growth has beaten year after year since 1995 the World GDP growth.
• Expenses by tourist increase by more than 10% annualized in the last 5 years
• Connection between countries (20,000 cities more connected by air in the last 20 years) and cultures are unstoppable
• New generations prioritize travel around the world over owning a house or a car or anything else. A 30 years old person in the 90´s maybe had visited few countries, but
now someone with that age has been travel around the world 4 times more than then.
• The tourist base are exponential bigger than 30 years ago.
• Tourism it’s for the 20’s like technology for the 10’s
- Stock Picking:
• Well managed companies selected:
▪ From 43 stocks in the Fund’s Portfolio, there has not been any default and only 9 capital increases.
▪ Companies did their job; no liquidity issues. We’ve done credit stress analysis for each holding in our portfolio to check if the companies invested in are able or
not to go through this shock and to point out the problems due to leveraged balances and conclude possible actions the management of these companies can
make in order to improve their solvency and liquidity during this difficult times (such as postponing dividends; future capex; possible state liquidity help).
▪ Market leaders will be bigger and stronger
- Investment Flows:
• Sovereign Funds investing in the sector (Saudi’s 8B USD in Carnival,…)
• Wealthy people investing in the sector (Bernard Arnault LVMH CEO…)
• Private Equity Funds buying Hotels around the world
• With recent optimistic in the markets, Trend Followers appears (Private banking making structures investing in Tourism)
Useful Data
55
GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI
Pareturn GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Equity Fund
Category Global Equity
Launching Date 21/02/2014
Benchmark Stoxx Global 1800 Travel & Leisure Index USD
NAV calculation Daily
Management Company MDO
Investment Manager GVC Gaesco Gestión, SGIIC
Transfer Agent BNP Securities Services Luxembourg
Depositary BNP Securities Services Luxembourg
Auditor Deloitte
Fund Administration BNP Securities Services Luxembourg
R Class I Class (EUR-USD) U Class
ISIN LU1954206709 LU1954206881
LU2051376619
LU1954206618
Management Fee 1.35% 0.75% 0.35%
Minimum investment
Eur/Usd300,000€ 10€ /10$ 10,000,000€
Bloomberg Ticker
Category Global Equity
Launching Date 21/02/2014
Benchmark Stoxx Global 1800 Travel & Leisure Index USD
NAV Calculation Daily
Currency Eur
Asset manager GVC Gaesco Gestión, SGIIC
Depositary BNP Paribas Spain
Useful Data. Pareturn GVC Gaesco 300 Places Global Equity
| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es
Clase A Clase P Clase I
ISIN ES0157638000 ES0157638026 ES0157638018
Management Fee 2.25% 1.50% 0.75%
Minimum
investment Eur1 Share 500,000€ 10€ /1,000,000€
Bloomberg Ticker GVGAESA SM GVGAESP SM GVGAESI SM
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GVC Gaesco Valores S.V. S.A. is member of the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores with number 182, is member of Bolsas de Barcelona, Madrid and Valencia,settlement and custody member of MEFF and debt manager with total capacity
GVC Gaesco Beka is a brokerage firm legally authorized to render investment services as referred in the article 63 of la Ley del Mercado de Valores and its ordinance,particularly the Real Decreto 217/2008, on the 15th February, on the law for investment services companies, the Ministerial Order on 7th October 1999 of developing thegeneral code of conduct on portfolio managing and the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) 2/2001, 30th May circular
The competent authorities that regulate GVC Gaesco activities are Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores, Paseo de la Castellana, 19, 28046 Madrid; Banco de España,Alcalá, 48, 28014 Madrid
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GVC Gaesco Valores renders the client the following contract services:
- Postal mail to GVC Gaesco Valores S.V. S.A., Calle Fortuny, 17, 28001 Madrid / Dr. Ferran, 3 - 5, 08034 Barcelona
- Telephone service 914 315 606 / 933 662 727 / 955 328 500 / 961 394 965
- Switchboard telephone / fax 902 237 237 / 915 762 937 / 93 550 47 75
- Corporate e-mail [email protected]
General information on GVC Gaesco Valores, as well as information related to agents are available on the website www.valores.gvcgaesco.com. Client’s can communicate withGVC Gaesco Valores in Spanish and Catalan.