+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

Date post: 03-Oct-2021
Category:
Upload: others
View: 3 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
56
Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in Global Tourism GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI June 30 th 2021
Transcript
Page 1: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in Global Tourism

GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI

June 30th 2021

Page 2: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Fund

1. Rational Behind & Investment Case (Jaume Puig. CEO & CIO GVC Gaesco Gestión, SGIIC and Fund Manager)

Page 3: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

3

“For the first time in history, more than

half the world is middle class

thanks to rapid growth in emerging

countries”

World Population growth & Middle Class percentage. Solid Demand

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Page 4: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

4

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.aspal Affairs.

Second Among Equals: The Middle Class Kingdoms of India and China. Surjit S. Bhalla. May 21, 2007The Economist. Special Report: The New middle classes in emerging markets. Feb 12th 2009

World Population growth & Middle Class percentage

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Page 5: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

5

Global Tourism: strong historical growth

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

1995-2018:World GDP annualized Growth: +3.8%Global tourism annualized growth: +5.6%

Strong forecasted growth

Global Tourist definitionInternational traveller spending at least one night abroad

Global Tourism Demand

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

1,420 million in 2018

1,500 million in 2019

(+3.8%)

2018:World GDP Growth: +3.7%Global tourism Growth: +8.3%

Page 6: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

2018-2019 data from UNWTO

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es 6

Annualized Growth 1990/2018:

World GDP: +3,6%

International Arrivals: +4,3%

International Receipts: +5,6%

Tourism 3rd largest exporter

sector right after Chemicals and Oil

derivatives.

Global tourism expenditures in 2019*:

+10.4% among the top 10

262,1

184,2

104,890,2

56,243,8 42,2 36,4 33,5

277

144

94

76

4837 33 30 32

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Largest International Tourism Expenditure 2018-2019* (USD Billions) +10.4%

2019 2018

1,9

-4,0

6,7

4,8 4,75,1

4,14,8

3,8

7,2

5,6

3,8

-5,0

-3,0

-1,0

1,0

3,0

5,0

7,0

World Growth % International Tourist Arrivals

*Estimated by the UNWTO not official

Page 7: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

7

Time is on our side (Generations will swing from Baby Boomers to Millennials and so on…)

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

*Source AARP.ORG/RESEARCH

Destination MillennialsGeneration

XBaby

Boomers

International 7% 6% 6%

Domestic 31% 40% 47%

Both 62% 55% 48%

Number of Trips MillennialsGeneration

XBaby Boomers

International 2.7 2.0 1.5

Domestic 3.2 3.8 3.8

Total 4.9 4.9 4.4

Top 3 Trip Types(Int.)

MillennialsGeneration

XBaby Boomers

Bucket List 7% 8% 24%

Summer Vacation 14% 14% 10%

Multi-gen trip 11% 13% 8%

Page 8: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

8

Time is on our side (Generations will swing from Baby Boomers to Millennials and so on…)

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

*Millenials Survey airbnb 2019

% of Chinese millennials surveyed*

Traveling 44%

Purchasing a home 13%

Paying off debt 6%

Purchasing car 16%

Savings 20%

• Boomers were planning on taking a total of 4-5leisure trips in 2019, on which they planned tospend over $6,600 (about 20% to 50% more thantheir Gen X or millennial counterparts).

• Generations flows and swing, perpetuing thedemand as Millennials travel 5 times more thanBoomers at their age back to the 80´s.

• Connections, job, cost, globalizations related tofriends and family also support and push the trend.

*Source Global X 2016

Page 9: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

Travel and Tourism Competitiveness

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es 9

Travel and Tourism Competitiveness(2019)(140 countries surveyed)

Rank Country Points Rank Country Points

1 Spain 5.4 9 Canada 5.1

2 France 5.4 10 Switzerland 5.0

3 Germany 5.4 13 China 4.9

4 Japan 5.4 19 Mexico 4.7

5 United States 5.3 31 Thailand 4.5

6 United Kingdom 5.2 34 India 4.4

7 Australia 5.1 63 Vietnam 3.9

8 Italy 5.1

Source:World Economic Forum*

The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2019

• World’s Top3: Spain, France, Germany

• 6 European countries out of Top 10

• Japan has recently grown and ranks 4th

Page 10: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

10| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index

Page 11: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

11| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Why 300 Places? A limited offer

Traveling a life need instead of Luxury

We can produce more cars

We can produce more watches

We can produce more smartphones

but…

Can we produce more

breathtaking and unique places?

Page 12: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

12

Limited Supply

ciudad pais o region zona geografica

1 New York New York U.S.A.

2 Paris France Western Europe

3 Walt Disney World - Orlando Florida U.S.A.

4 San Francisco California U.S.A.

5 London England Great Britain & Ireland

6 The Las Vegas Strip Nevada U.S.A.

7 Los Angeles California U.S.A.

8 Rome Italy Western Europe

9 Washington DC District of Columbia U.S.A.

10 Chicago Illinois U.S.A.

11 Venice Italy Western Europe

12 Grand Canyon Arizona U.S.A.

13 Boston Massachusetts U.S.A.

14 Florence Tuscany, Italy Western Europe

15 Niagara Falls and Niagara wine country Ontario Canada

16 South Beach - Miami Beach Florida U.S.A.

17 The San Diego Zoo California U.S.A.

18 Amsterdam Netherlands Western Europe

19 The French Quarter - New Orleans Louisiana U.S.A.

20 The Florida Keys Florida U.S.A.

21 California Wine Country California U.S.A.

22 Lucca and Pisa Tuscany, Italy Western Europe

23 Vienna Austria Western Europe

24 The Pacific Coast Highway and Big Sur California U.S.A.

25 Oahu Hawaii U.S.A.

26 The acropolis - Athens Greece Western Europe

27 Gaudí and La Sagrada Familia - Barcelona Catalonia, Spain Western Europe

28 Yosemite National Park California U.S.A.

29 Madrid Spain Western Europe

30 Pike Place Market - Seattle Washington U.S.A.

31 Sydney Opera House and the harbour Australia Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Islands

32 Maui Hawaii U.S.A.

33 Kennedy Space Center - Cape Canaveral Florida U.S.A.

34 The New Orleans Restaurant Scene Louisiana U.S.A.

35 Hong Kong China East Asia

36 Hawaiì Island (Big Island) Hawaii U.S.A.

37 Independence National Historical Park -PhiladelphiaPennsylvania U.S.A.

38 Stonehenge England Great Britain & Ireland

39 River Walk - San Antonio Texas U.S.A.

40 Yellowstone Wyoming U.S.A.

41 Beijing China East Asia

42 New Orleans's Music Scene Louisiana U.S.A.

43 Old Town square - Prague Czech Republic Eastern Europe

44 The Garden District - New Orleans Louisiana U.S.A.

45 Edinburgh Castle and festivals Scotland Great Britain & Ireland

46 Monaco Monaco Western Europe

47 The hill towns of tuscany Tuscany, Italy Western Europe

48 Tokio Japan East Asia

49 The Pyramids of Egypt Egypt North Africa

50 On and around Piazza del Duomo - Milan Lombardy, Italy Western Europe

51 The french riviera France Western Europe

52 Salzburg: Baroque and Modern Austria Western Europe

53 Savannah's Historic District Georgia U.S.A.

54 Belgian Chocolate Belgium Western Europe

55 Cape Cod Massachusetts U.S.A.

56 Santorini Greece Western Europe

57 chichèn Itzá and Mérida Mexico Mexico & Central America

58 Colonial Williamsburg Virginia U.S.A.

59 The Heart Of Charleston South Carolina U.S.A.

60 Everglades National Park Florida U.S.A.

Source: 1000 Places to See Before You Die (IPAD App.)

Why 300? Limited Global Tourism Supply

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

City Region CountryCity Region Country

Page 13: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

13

Investment Universe

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Business Companies

Airlines 103

Hotels 328

Entertaiment 207

Food & Beverages 299

Travel & Tourism 252

Highways & Airports 62

Luxury 79

Total 1,330

Business Empresas

Airlines 65

Hotels 48

Entertaiment 45

Food & Beverages 100

Travel & Tourism 86

Highways & Airports 37

Luxury 79

Total 460

0.31%10.02%

3.91%

40.59%

44.81%

Australia, NZ & Pacific Islands Asia Japan Europe USA

Investment Universe >250M USD market capitalization

Page 14: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

Investment Process & Philosophy (Pure Fundamental, Bottom-Up, Buy & Hold)

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es 14

Company Primary Search Qualitative Analysis Fundamental Valuation

Strength of the business and competitive advantage of the company

Analysis of the consistency of the management team through one to one meetings

Analysis of the performance expectations

Medium-term consistency of the

business model

Specialization

Leadership in the sector

Clear sources of profit generation

Margin stability

Cash Flow sustainability

Level of internationalization

Appropriate Financial Structure

Medium and long-term view of the management team

Credibility of the management team. Quality management

Shareholder structure

Companies Visited

Sales, margins, and results expectations

Analysis of the internal cycles of the business activity

Business valuation: discount operating cash flows.

Analysis of the fundamental discounts of the companies

Monitoring the discount lifecycles

Quarterly review

Quantity of the 300 Places Worlwide covered by the companies

300 Places Worldwide more visited by the global tourist

Analysis of any of the company services all over the world

Where do the Airlines fly?

Who has the better Hotelslocations?

Company Meetings: 764 companies. 129 in 2017, 146 in 2018, 161 in 2019, 193 in 2020 and 135 in 2021 ytd

More than 150 meetings average in the last four years

Page 15: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

15| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

The Wheel of Traveling

THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY

LAS VEGAS SANDS

WYNN MACAU

VISA

TRIPADVISOR

7. Final Destination&

Much more

BOOKING

TUI AG

FLIGHT CENTRE GROUP

SABRE CORP.

SAMSONITE

1. Travel Planning

JAPAN AIRPORT TERMINALCENTRAL JAPAN RAILWAY

2. Travel Hubs

TRIGANOSIXT

AUTOGRILL

ATLANTIAAEROPORT DE PARIS

DUFRY

3. By the Sea

4. Flying

ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISESCARNIVAL

LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS

6. The Trip HQ

SINGAPORE AIRLINESRYANAIRWIZZAIRAEGEAN

NORWEGIAN

5. By Road

MANDARIN ORIENTAL

SHANGRI-LA ASIA

MELIA HOTELS

ACCOR

Page 16: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Fund

2. Growing demand and opening of borders (Ignacio Hosta, Senior Analyst & Head of Intelligence)

Page 17: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

17| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Recovering Flights & Capacity weekly evolution (June 30th)

Total Number of Flights

*Source:Vertical Knowledge, Jefferies estimates

Page 18: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

18| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

When do you have planned to travel?

~80% of ConsumersExpect to Take a Tripin 2021

How Many International Trips Do you Plan to Take in 2022? – 85% likely to flight

in 2022

*Source: Jefferies 1,642 survey who had taken 2 or more trips in 2019 (June 18th)

Page 19: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

19

Tourism Revenge (Catch-Up Effect)

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

*Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Savings Ratio Record High US & EU 2020-2021

*Source: Eurostat

Page 20: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

20

Facts

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Page 21: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

21

Facts…and more Facts

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Cases, Hospital admissions and Deaths in the UK for coronavirus

each day. Line shows Rolling 7 days avg. 2nd wave taken as starting 30 of Aug 2020, 3rd

wave, 19 May 2021.

*Source: UK Govt. July 1st

Page 22: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Fund

3. Portfolio valuation (Pol Companys, Senior Analyst)

Page 23: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

23

Stress Test Analysis (March 16th 2020): A temporary shock, “once in a decade Investment Opportunity”

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

“Companies will be able to survive this TEMPORARY shock”

• Well capitalized companies, backed by strong families as shareholders with ample strategic options like disposal of assets to get through COVID. Ex: MELIA

Capital Increases

• Only 9 out of 43 stocks in our portfolio. All of them successfully covered. Opportunistic long-term Investors investing strongly in the sector.

Portfolio Stress Test

Study

DUFRY CARNIVALNORWEGIAN AIR SHUTTLE

TUI AGFLIGHT CENTRE GROUP

JAPAN AIRPORT

TERMINAL

SINGAPORE AIRLINES

SABRE CORP.

AUTOGRILL

Page 24: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

24

Scenarios and Sectors vs. MSCI World (September 30th 2020) Buy Before the Vaccine (BBV)

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

8

12

16

20

24

8

12

16

20

24

28

NAV Consensus Scenario Our base Scenario Pesimist scenario

Before Covid GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide since incenption (2014) to 2019 +9.92% IRR

Page 25: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

25

Scenarios

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

8

12

16

20

24

28

8

12

16

20

24

28

NAV Consensus Scenario Our base Scenario Pesimist scenario

In our base scenario expected IRR from September 30th 2020 until Dec 2023

was +34.8%June 30th 2021 expected IRR is +26.6%

Page 26: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Fund

4. Sector and Fund Outlook for 2021-2025 (Jaume Puig. CEO & CIO of GVC Gaesco Gestión S.G.I.I.C and Fund Manager)

Page 27: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

27| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

New companies added into the portfolio because of a Valuation Call postCovid (I): Airbus

Page 28: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

28| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

New companies added into the portfolio because of a Valuation call postCovid (II): Beneteau

Page 29: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

29| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

New companies added into the portfolio because of a Valuation call postCovid (III): JC Decaux

Page 30: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

30| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Proven business models within the sector

Vs.

Before Covid50% Cars belongs to Luxury Brands Old fashion style

Deals with OEM’s Cars Owned or LeasingReturns 6 months period No return

Rent-Sharing-Ride-Subscriptions Rent OnlySmall Market Share in US US 2nd Largest Market Share

Covid ImpactFrom 63.93 to 68.40 (+6.99%) From 20.85 to 8.74 (-58.08%)

US Markets Share jumps Chapter 11(7 airports Las Vegas, Orlando,

Denver, New Jersey…)

Page 31: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

31| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Structural Winners

Hospitality Covid winner• TriganoProven Profitability (Low Cost Carrier)• Ryanair• WizzairValuation new additions• Airbus• Beneteau• JC Decaux• …Bargain Hunting• Carnival• Dufry• Airports (From 7.9% in 2019 to

11.8% current), ….

Bankruptcy Winners• Sixt vs Hertz• TUI vs. Thomas Cook• Carnival vs. Pullmantur

Page 32: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

DUNKIN BRANDS

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 32

Bid on DUNKIN BRANDS. October 2020. +20% Premium

Bidder : Inspire BrandsBid date: 23/10/20Bid Price: 106.5 USDBid payment: CashPremium related to last close price: +20%

Our action: We accept the BID

Page 33: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

33

▪ It owns 100% of Marco Polo Airport in Venice (8,8

Millions of passengers in 2015) and 80% of Treviso

Airport (2,4 Millions of passengers in 2015. Low-

cost oriented), both covering the Venice aereal

Access.

▪ In addition, it owns 40% of Verona and Brescia

Airports and 27% of Charleroi Airport

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

The Rational Behind of the fund sample: Save Spa

4.5 Million tourist arrivals in 2018

Venice top 10 destinations worldwide

High Demand&

LimitedSupply

IIMonopoly

Very High Demand

Marco Polo

Page 34: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

SAVE Bid in April 17

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com 34

Fully Sold at the 21 EUR bid

Average cost:12.03 EUR

+74,6%

Page 35: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

35

Sectors vs. MSCI World

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Page 36: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

36| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Oil price and GDP Growth not a concern at the moment – Reflation trade worries is not an issue

Historically USD/Barrel over 94.6$ 86,598,831 * 0.04

-------------------------100.3 * 365

Today 76.8$, much below

Historically 2.6% GDP growth is themínimum level of growth required for

increasing corporate profitsIMF 2018/2019/2020/2021E+3.6%/ +2.9%/ -4.9%/+5.4%

Clearly above that level

Page 37: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

37| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

The recovery pace is the key: Airline traffic by type

*Source: Aeroporto Di Bologna 25th March 2021

Page 38: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

38| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Current GVC Gaesco 300 Places Wolrdwide, FI: Whole portfolio recovery pace

✓ GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide FI, current portolio weighted Ebitda Margin:

Pre-Covid (2017-2019): 28.5%

Post-Covid (2025): 30.1% +160 bp margin increase

✓ Net profit recovering the first and sales being the last to recover. Average Time from now on:

• Net Profit: 2.60 years First to Recover• Ebitda Margin: 2.62 years• Ebitda: 2.75 years• EPS: 2.93 years• Sales: 3.15 years Last to recover

Page 39: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

39| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Current GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI. Our fundamental target in 2025

✓ Expected weighted Market Cap Increase from 12/2019 to 12/2025: +51.9%

• Results increase +60.7%

• Increasing number of shares -6.1%

• Multiple normalization -2.7%

Fundamental NAV 12/25

✓ From 12/2019 Fundamental NAV: 35,0 EUR Maximum Expected

✓ From 12/2019 NAV: 25,9 EUR Minimum Expected

Page 40: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

40| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

ESG Implementation and Quantification: In Our Approach the key is the ESG Improvement trend

Year % Improve

2007 -4,38%

2008 8,09%

2009 5,00%

2010 7,38%

2011 3,62%

2012 6,33%

2013 1,91%

2014 0,68%

2015 2,24%

2016 3,27%

2017 8,45%

2018 3,44%

2019 11,80%

Source: Bloomberg

23

28

33

38

43

48

Portfolio Bloomberg ESG disclosure score evolution

Page 41: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

41

% Equity 97.1%

Holdings 43

Sectors % AssetsNumber of

Companies

Hotels 21.3% 7

Airport and motorways 13.9% 6

Bookings 11.4% 3

Airlines 9.9% 7

Cruises 8.9% 3

Airports Stores 6.1% 1

Food & Beverages 5.3% 3

Luxury 4.4% 2

Casinos 4.0% 2

Car Rental 3.6% 1

Travel Agencies 2.8% 2

Advertising 2.2% 1

Motorhomes 1.0% 1

Theme Parks 1.0% 1

Financial Services 0.5% 1

Aircraft Builders 0.4% 1

Pleasure boats 0.3% 1

Regions % AssetsNumber of

Companies

Europe 44.9% 17

US 36.3% 16

Asia ex Japan 11.2% 7

Japan 4.2% 2

Australia 0.5% 1

Ranked (0 to 10)

Value/Growth 5.83

Small/Large 5.76

Portfolio Composition (June 30th)

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Strategy AUM 180.3M€

Spanish Fund AUM 121.8M€

Japanese Fund AUM 58.5M€

Page 42: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

42| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

World Tourism Fund (Japan) AUM Vs. NAV (June 30th 2021)

AUM Spanish Fund 121.8M€ AUM Japanese Fund 58.5M€ Total Strategy AUM 180.3M€

4.500

5.500

6.500

7.500

8.500

9.500

10.500

¥100.000.000

¥1.100.000.000

¥2.100.000.000

¥3.100.000.000

¥4.100.000.000

¥5.100.000.000

¥6.100.000.000

¥7.100.000.000

¥8.100.000.000

¥9.100.000.000

AUM NAV

Page 43: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Performances July 31st 2021 (Class I) NAV

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es 43

YTD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Set Oct Nov Dec

7,95% -0,68% -1,29% 6,82% -4,21% -1,67% 1,43% -0,10% 0,83% 4,69% 2,51%

17,47% 6,49% 6,31% 5,28% -4,24% 1,46% -2,75% 4,12% -5,64% -0,49% 9,47% -0,58% -1,96%

4,15% -10,23% 3,84% 3,78% -0,93% 0,27% -5,36% 4,71% -0,19% 1,25% 1,39% 4,31% 2,31%

19,65% 2,30% 2,07% 3,30% 3,43% 2,14% 0,27% -1,19% 0,23% 2,05% 3,10% -0,39% 0,89%

-6,46% 3,54% -0,15% -2,11% 6,87% 3,63% -2,02% 0,50% -1,58% -1,68% -6,14% 2,80% -9,21%

15,60% 5,58% 1,35% -0,31% 3,20% -8,21% 4,63% 2,17% -3,58% 1,93% 2,26% 3,52% 2,87%

-22,97% -6,67% -15,74% -32,99% 12,13% 3,46% -3,47% -9,13% 13,12% -4,94% -2,18% 32,20% 3,31%

4,81% -7,96% 22,82% 1,64% -0,49% -0,85% -3,17% -4,52%

Year

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide

Page 44: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

Annex (Companies)

Page 45: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

45

▪ Principal operator of hotel reservations, car rentals, airline tickets and

cruises (under the brand priceline.com)

▪ Presence in +220 countries and territories.

▪ 7.40% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Booking Holdings

Sector Country Market Cap

Bookings USA 91,912 Million USD

Million USD Sales EBITDAEBITDA

margin

Net

incomeP/E

2019 15066 6061 40,2% 4271

2020 6,756 865 12.8% 238

2021 E 10,314 3,450 33.44% 2,265 54.2

2022 E 14,361 5,636 39.24% 4,195 24.6

2023 E 17,166 6,552 38.2% 4,966 18.9

2024 E 18,584 7,293 39.2% 5,554 16.9

Page 46: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

46

Million

USDSales EBITDA

EBITDA

margin

Net

incomeP/E

2019 20825 5500 26,4% 3041

2020 5,595 -1,713 -30.6% -5,793 --

2021 E 4,468 -1,717 -38.4% -5,408 --

2022 E 17,217 3,929 22.8% -13.7 --

2023 E 20,853 5,627 27.1% 1,601 17.5

2024 E 22,472 6,287 28.3% 1,926 14.5

Sector Country Market Cap Employees

Cruises USA 29,040 M USD 11,000

Carnival Corporation

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

▪ Global leader in cruiserships with a market share of 47% in

worldwide number of passengers

▪ Operating in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia with 99

ships

▪ Brands: Carnival, Costa, P&O, Princess, Holland American, Aida,

Cunard, Seabgur y Fathom. 10,8 Millions of passangers in 2015

▪ 6.29 % GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI

Page 47: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

47

▪ Multi-brand hotel in 43 Countries:

▪ Luxury: Gran Meliá, ME and Paradisus: 27 hotels

▪ High-end: Meliá and Innside: 119 hotels

▪ Mid-range: Tryp and Sol: 168 hotels

▪ 61% Resorts, 39 % City

▪ Company owns, manage, rent and allow franchise to hotels all around the

world

▪ 5.82% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Meliá Hoteles Inc.

Sector Country Market Cap Employees

Hotels Spain 1,448 Million Eur 25,146

Million EUR Sales EBITDAEBITDA

marginNet income P/E

2019 1800 482 26,8% 112,9

2020 530,6 -149.6 -28.2% -537.2 --

2021 E 1,130.7 184.7 16.3% -152.1 --

2022 E 1,501.9 342.4 22.8% -10 --

2023 E 1,685 446 26.5% 77.6 26.7

2024 E 1,773 511 28.8% 141.9 10.2

Page 48: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

48

Milion CHF Sales EBITDAEBITDA

margin

Net

IncomeP/E

2019 8848 2267 25,6% 20

2020 2,868.7 478.1 16.7% -978.5 --

2021 E 5,398.7 1,341.6 24.8% -349.7 --

2022 E 7,074.1 1,914.8 27.1% 121.7 39.8

2023 E 7,959 2,086 26.2% 388 13.4

2024 E 8,281 2,204 26.6% 342 15.2

Sector Country Market Cap Employees

Airports Stores Switzerland 5,193 M CHF 29,879

▪ Main operator of airport shops worldwide with a market share of 24%

▪ 2,200 shops in 63 countries

▪ 89% revenues at airports, 5% in citites, 4% in train stations and 2% in

cruises

▪ 30% revenues in perfumes and cosmetic articles, 17% revenues in

sweets and food, 15% wines and liqueurs, 13% luxury goods

▪ Duty-free sales (tax-free): 63%, sales Duty-paid sales (with taxes): 37%

▪ 6.12% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Dufry, AG

Page 49: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

Trigano

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es 49

▪ French motorhome manufacturer

▪ 25% market share in Europe

▪ Different factories within the EU

▪ Deep knowledge of the customer needs

▪ François Feuillet: President & CEO

▪ 1.03% Pareturn GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide

Sector Country Market Cap Employees

Motorhomes France3,693

Million EUR6,034

Million EUR Sales EBITDAEBITDAMargin

Net Income

P/E

2019 2328 236 10,1% 167

2020 2,573.8 288.8 11.2% 193.7 --

2021 E 2,709.6 316.3 11.7% 211.1 15.2

2022 E 2,713.0 316.8 11.8% 211.4 13.9

2023 E 2,803 330 11.8% 223 13.5

Page 50: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

SIXT

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es 50

Sector Country Market Cap Employees

Car Rental and

TransportGermany

4,679 Million Eur

6,202

▪ Leading car rental company in Germany with a 35% market

share and second player in Europe with a 14% market share.

▪ Most profitable company in the sector with a solid financial

position.

▪ 3.62% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI

Millions € Sales EBITDAMargin

EBITDA

Net

IncomeP/E

2019 3306 1115 33,7% 239

2020 1,506.1 363.5 24.1% -53.8 --

2021 E 2,132.1 712.6 33.4% 131.8 27.4

2022 E 2,651.1 825.3 31.1% 222.4 13.8

2023 E 3,397 1,149 33.8% 271 12.3

2024 E 2,783 1,085 39% 307 10.9

Page 51: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

51

Sector Country Market Cap Employees

Food & Beverages Italy 1,647 M € 3000

Autogrill SpA

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

▪ Autogrill S.p.A., an Italian multinational company.

▪ Operates in various countries offering food and beverage and

retail services for people on the move on key motorways,

main rail and air hubs around the world.

▪ The Company conducts the majority of its business in North

America and Italy where it obtained concessions, offering a

wide portfolio of brands and food and beverage products.

▪ 3.81% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI

Million EUR Sales EBITDAEBITDA

Margin

Net

IncomeP/E

2019 5,393 798 14.8% 60.0

2020 2,216 215 9.7% -443.5 --

2021 E 3,011 392 13.3% -279.3 --

2022 E 4,043 692 17.1% -32.3 --

2023 E 4,290 753 17.6% 62.2 26.5

2024 E 4,480 820 18,3% 105.0 15.7

Page 52: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

52

Sector Country Market Cap Employees

Airlines – B2B Tour

OperatorGermany 4,886 M EUR 60,839

TUI AG

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.com

▪ TUI AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides tourism services

worldwide.

▪ It operates hotels and resorts under the Robinson, Riu, TUI Blue, and

TUI Magic Life brands, as well as involved in the tour operation and

airlines businesses.

▪ The company also operates cruise liners; and provides incoming

agency services. It operates a fleet of 1,600 travel agencies and

online portals; 6 airlines with approximately 150 aircrafts; and 16

cruise liners, as well as approximately 380 hotels.

▪ TUI AG is based in Hanover, Germany.

▪ 2.37% GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI

Million EUR Sales EBITDAEBITDA

Margin

Net

IncomeP/E

2019 18928 1105 5,8% 521

2020 12,219.1 286.6 2.35% -450.1 --

2021 E 16,420.4 1,338.6 8.15% 303.3 --

2022 E 17,417.6 1,864.8 10.71% 362.7 22.3

2023 E 17,586 1,784 10.1% 361 18.2

2024 E 18,185 1,767 9.7% 382 12.8

Page 53: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

53

Economic Outlook & Fund Management

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

- Economic Outlook:

• The temporality of this situation

• Vaccines, treatments, speed test are a reality

• Government support

• Crisis are always opportunities

• Investing in other sectors would be a huge opportunity cost

- Stocks’ Pricing dynamics and Behavioral Finance:

• Extreme price drops. As global tourism has been hit worse than other sectors, we expect according to our research and the past, that the recovery will be very strong

and will overpass previous levels sooner than expected.

• Global tourism has shown in the past that if it’s a crisis, this sector it’s the fastest to recover in just one year as it happens after Lehman Brothers collapse.

• Pricing discounting tourism like the virus will never be beaten

- Sector Fundamentals:

• Offer is limited and stable.

• Deand is growing. Historically tourism growth has beaten year after year since 1995 the World GDP growth.

• Expenses by tourist increase by more than 10% annualized in the last 5 years

• Connection between countries (20,000 cities more connected by air in the last 20 years) and cultures are unstoppable

• New generations prioritize travel around the world over owning a house or a car or anything else. A 30 years old person in the 90´s maybe had visited few countries, but

now someone with that age has been travel around the world 4 times more than then.

• The tourist base are exponential bigger than 30 years ago.

• Tourism it’s for the 20’s like technology for the 10’s

- Stock Picking:

• Well managed companies selected:

▪ From 43 stocks in the Fund’s Portfolio, there has not been any default and only 9 capital increases.

▪ Companies did their job; no liquidity issues. We’ve done credit stress analysis for each holding in our portfolio to check if the companies invested in are able or

not to go through this shock and to point out the problems due to leveraged balances and conclude possible actions the management of these companies can

make in order to improve their solvency and liquidity during this difficult times (such as postponing dividends; future capex; possible state liquidity help).

▪ Market leaders will be bigger and stronger

- Investment Flows:

• Sovereign Funds investing in the sector (Saudi’s 8B USD in Carnival,…)

• Wealthy people investing in the sector (Bernard Arnault LVMH CEO…)

• Private Equity Funds buying Hotels around the world

• With recent optimistic in the markets, Trend Followers appears (Private banking making structures investing in Tourism)

Page 54: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

Useful Data

Page 55: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

55

GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide, FI

Pareturn GVC Gaesco 300 Places Worldwide Equity Fund

Category Global Equity

Launching Date 21/02/2014

Benchmark Stoxx Global 1800 Travel & Leisure Index USD

NAV calculation Daily

Management Company MDO

Investment Manager GVC Gaesco Gestión, SGIIC

Transfer Agent BNP Securities Services Luxembourg

Depositary BNP Securities Services Luxembourg

Auditor Deloitte

Fund Administration BNP Securities Services Luxembourg

R Class I Class (EUR-USD) U Class

ISIN LU1954206709 LU1954206881

LU2051376619

LU1954206618

Management Fee 1.35% 0.75% 0.35%

Minimum investment

Eur/Usd300,000€ 10€ /10$ 10,000,000€

Bloomberg Ticker

Category Global Equity

Launching Date 21/02/2014

Benchmark Stoxx Global 1800 Travel & Leisure Index USD

NAV Calculation Daily

Currency Eur

Asset manager GVC Gaesco Gestión, SGIIC

Depositary BNP Paribas Spain

Useful Data. Pareturn GVC Gaesco 300 Places Global Equity

| www.fondos.gvcgaesco.es

Clase A Clase P Clase I

ISIN ES0157638000 ES0157638026 ES0157638018

Management Fee 2.25% 1.50% 0.75%

Minimum

investment Eur1 Share 500,000€ 10€ /1,000,000€

Bloomberg Ticker GVGAESA SM GVGAESP SM GVGAESI SM

Page 56: Global Equity: Pure Fundamental Approach. Investing in ...

Legal Disclaimer

The present information has an advertising nature of GVC Gaesco Valores, SV. SA and purely informative purpose to the recipients, complying with the rules of conductapplied to all investment services. Therefore, it has been tried that the information is sufficient and understandable for any likely recipient of it.

GVC Gaesco Valores S.V. S.A. is member of the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores with number 182, is member of Bolsas de Barcelona, Madrid and Valencia,settlement and custody member of MEFF and debt manager with total capacity

GVC Gaesco Beka is a brokerage firm legally authorized to render investment services as referred in the article 63 of la Ley del Mercado de Valores and its ordinance,particularly the Real Decreto 217/2008, on the 15th February, on the law for investment services companies, the Ministerial Order on 7th October 1999 of developing thegeneral code of conduct on portfolio managing and the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) 2/2001, 30th May circular

The competent authorities that regulate GVC Gaesco activities are Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores, Paseo de la Castellana, 19, 28046 Madrid; Banco de España,Alcalá, 48, 28014 Madrid

GVC Gaesco Valores is subjected to Fondo de Garantía de Inversiones (FOGAIN) in accordance with the current law, FOGAIN, Paseo de la Habana, 82, 28036 Madrid

GVC Gaesco Valores renders the client the following contract services:

- Postal mail to GVC Gaesco Valores S.V. S.A., Calle Fortuny, 17, 28001 Madrid / Dr. Ferran, 3 - 5, 08034 Barcelona

- Telephone service 914 315 606 / 933 662 727 / 955 328 500 / 961 394 965

- Switchboard telephone / fax 902 237 237 / 915 762 937 / 93 550 47 75

- Corporate e-mail [email protected]

General information on GVC Gaesco Valores, as well as information related to agents are available on the website www.valores.gvcgaesco.com. Client’s can communicate withGVC Gaesco Valores in Spanish and Catalan.


Recommended