Global Feed Markets: May - June 2011

8/6/2019 Global Feed Markets: May - June 2011

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Digital Re-print - May | June 2011Global Feed Markets: May - June 2011

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GLOBALGRAIN & FEED MARKETS

Every issue GFMTs market analyst John Buckley reviewsworld trading conditions which are impacting the fu ll range of

commodities used in food and feed production. His observationswill influence your decision-making.

The USDAs first

official forecasts for

the new 2011/12

season suggest

world wheat output

could recover to

669.5m tonnes from

last years 648.1m,

matched against

a consumption

estimate of 670.5m

(662.1m).

THE first official forecasts for the 2011/12

season from the US Department ofAgriculture in mid-May offered a less

fraught view of the forward supply/

demand balance for grains and feeds than marketswere expecting. These included upward revisions

to US starting stocks of maize and soyabeans(after lower than expected demand), a b ig jump

in the coming US/global maize crop, rebounding

wheat output in former Soviet countries, Canadaand Europe, more Russian and Ukrainian barley

and bigger Latin American soyabean supply.

Yet with the ink hardly dry on these estimates,

some are already in contention. Wet weathercontinues to hold up US maize as well US and

Canadian spring wheat planting while drought

questions whether USDA is too optimistic onUS and EU winter wheat crops (more details on

these below).

However, demand does appear to be slowing

in the face of high prices and other factors. The

previously breakneck expansion consumption of

US maize for ethanol (now taking a staggering

third of the US crop) is seen braking sharply as

most of the government incentives near maturity,

world energy markets peak and economic recession

and high costs star t to curb fuel use even in the

affluent, gas-guzzling USA. While maize supplies will

probably remain finely balanced against demand,

they should be adequate with US and world st ocks

even growing a little.

Oilmeal demand is also expected to expand ata slower pace than last season as growth in meat

consumption slows. Wheat consumption continues

its gradual, long-term, year-on year increase

but, according to the USDA, not by enough to

outweigh the forecast crop gains. For wheat and

soyabeans, ample new supplies imply stocks of

these commodities will stay at comfor table levels

right through to mid-2012.

Yet the total stock numbers tell only part of the

story. While US wheat supplies remain historically

large, much of the world stock is tied up off-market

in countries like China and India (though India does

now seem to be preparing to export significant

quantities for the first t ime in five years). An even

bigger issue for wheat is how much of the new

seasons crops will turn out quality milling grades.

Quality supplies, as readers will be well aware,

have been run down over the past year after wet

harvests in Australia, Canada andGermany a significant factor in

this years return to near-record

wheat prices on world and

European markets.

Since our last review, grain and

feed raw material markets have

seen another couple of months of

extreme price volatility. The US

and EU drought problems and

US/Canadian sowing holdups,

pushed wheat prices back to

2-year and maize to new all-

time record highs. Only a week

Will weather spoil

improving supply picture?

Gri&fd milliG tcholoG38 | may - June 2011

COMMODITIES

or two before this issue went

to press, the more comforting

USDA figures had combined

with fresh global economic

jitters to propel prices to near

two-month lows. But at t his point (late-May)

markets are roaring back again as these

persistent weather problems start to eat

further into crop estimates.

This volatility is likely to continue. On the

one had, there is the real possibility that new

crops will run short of forecast and short of

demand for a second year. Against that,

the outside macro-economic indicators that

underpin speculative investment in futures

are looking shaky. These include fresh signs

of a slowdown in Chinas economy the

powerhouse of Asian and global economic

growth/recovery, further fiscal tightening

measures in China and India, the nagging failure

to resolve Eurozone sovereign debt problems

and a constantly backsliding US economic

recovery (not to mention the USAs own

eye-watering debt problems). All these factors

have combined to make speculators far more

risk averse toward commodity markets. This

is good news for consumers who dont want

to see their raw material

costs constantly driven

far higher than supply/

demand fundamentals

justify and if some of the

gloomier economic prognosess are right, the

withdrawal of more of this speculative froth

in coming months could help restrain prices

of food and feed raw materials. However,

if US and European crops seriously under-

perform forecast, macro-economic factors

will not prevent prices being exposed to

open-ended rises. Effectively, weather in the

two or three weeks after this issue goes to

press may determine the direction of grain

prices well into 2012 and possibly beyond.

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3/5

convincingly, the possibility of EU milling andfeed wheat prices breaking the 2008 record

highs cant be ruled out though curbing the

EUs exports would help restrain the internal

market.

The US also offers a mixed picture. After

sowing a lot more winter wheat, drought since

last autumn in the hard red winter wheat

belt has cut sharply into yield prospects for

this, the most important US export class.

Prices of HRW have remained firm, especially

for higher protein grades. USDA thinks the

crop will fall to 20.7m tonnes, about 7m less

than last year. However, the soft red winter

wheat crop has had plenty of rain, even too

much in some states, and could be up by

5m tonnes. As well as forming the basis of

the highly influential Chicago futures market,

SRW is a key pricing guide for European

soft wheats, so an important element in themix of factors affecting European, Asian and

Near eastern bread, noodle and biscuit wheat

costs. Uncer tainties over late sowing are also

keeping US hard spring wheat export prices

firm. Assuming it did meet area targets, the

USDA expects US total wheat output to fall

by about 4.5m tonnes this year. This is not

especially bullish as export demand for US

wheat is also expected to fall by about 6.5m

tonnes amid the increased competition from

Black Sea and other suppliers, leaving US

surplus stocks at the end of 2011/12 at a still

comfortable 19m tonnes.

Later in the year, the weather odds might

reasonably be thought to favour a much

better performance (late in 2011/early 2012)

for another big quality wheat producer,

Australia which saw an extraordinary slump

in its bread/feed wheat ratio after last yearsweather washout. Most analysts think output

may contract by 2m to 3m tonnes on smaller

sowings and there have been drought issues

persisting in Western Australia (though these

seem to be improving as we go to press).

However, the main issue for Australia this year

is the need for a quality rebound. The other big

southern hemisphere breadwheat exporter,

Argentina, has meanwhile announced plans to

raise area for 2011/12 beyond levels predicted

by USDA and will probably export more.

Many other smaller producers could make a

similar response amid these high world wheat

prices.

pricing from the region

as a whole). However,

even taking all this into

account, the regions

marketing strategies

a r e n o t o r i o u s l y

unpredictable and it

would not be surprising

if (as has often happened

in the past) their crops

turned out larger than

expected and the return

of supplies from this region did become asignificant bearish weight on world prices.

USDA also sees wheat production up this

season in Canada, China, India and the EU,

offset partially by expected lower crops in

Australia and Argentina. The Chinese figures

if they prove correct are comforting.

Drought earlier this year in this (the worlds

largest wheat producing country) was one

reason why world prices went up in first

quarter 2011. Normal yields here confirm

Chinas approximate self-sufficiency, making

it a neutral factor. However, Indias crop

gains will put more pressure on already tight

storage space with government security

stocks of wheat and rice running at nearly

three times the needed level. That suggests

more exports, mostly of the middling/lower

milling/feed grades to Asia customers but a

factor that should help restrain world wheatprices nonetheless.

Canadas vaunted crop gain of almost 3m

tonnes is open to question, at least until one

of its latest planting campaigns ever gets

drier weather to complete successfully. If that

happens, and the crop gets more sunshine

and less rain in the late growing/harvest

period than last year, world milling wheat

importers may see a very welcome top

up of these higher quality breadwheat

supplies and perhaps some easing of price

premiums for these grades.

Europes picture is more complicated

by varying weather in the 27 member

states. USDA currently sees a near 3m

tonne gain in total EU production at

138.6m tonnes. However, Germany has

suffered a tough winter and, like France

has recently been plagued by severedrought. Some pundits warn yield losses

of 10-15% or more are possible which

could take European and world output well

below forecast. In the context of this seasons

lower starting stocks, that could spell a tighter

EU market during 2011/12 and keep prices

far higher than consumers would like even

with some extra export competition from

the Black Sea region. Earlier, hopes had risen

that, later summer weather being normal, (less

rain at the wrong time) the quality quotient,

from Germany especially, could be higher

than last years, even from a smaller overall

harvest. However, until the droughts break

Main commodity highlightssince our last review

Ample wheat supplies?

The USDAs first official forecasts for the

new 2011/12 season suggest world wheat

output could recover to 669.5m tonnes

from last years 648.1m, matched against a

consumption estimate of 670.5m (662.1m).

Main gains are for the former Soviet Union

with combined Russian, Ukrainian and Kazakhcrops seen rising by a hefty 19m tonnes to

87m, allowing their total exports to more

than double to 26m tonnes. Trade trade

reports suggest the regions crops have been

looking very promising recently and with talk

of shippers already starting t o line up supplies

in port stores, markets have been anticipating

a Black Sea exporter comeback sooner rather

than later. Some caveats apply here. One is

that the crops are not yet made. After last

years shock losses from summer droughts and

heatwaves, the authorities are bound to want

to see the harvest coming in before making

commitments (even though reports suggest

Russia and Ukraine may have overdone the

caution during the past season and still have

exportable old-crop supplies). The other is

that, even if crops do recover to t he expected

extent, surpluses will be smaller than in theboom years prior to the 2010 drought. when

the three top regional exports regularly

supplied at least 25% of all world wheat trade.

Some of the surpluses will probably go to

rebuilding domestic security stocks against the

threat of future weather upsets, especially in

Russia with Ukraine probably more inclined to

take the opportunities offered by high world

prices. Thirdly, Ukraine is swapping the quotas

with which it restricted exports last year for

duties which will effectively raise the floor

price at which it sells to the world market

beyond the rock-bottom levels to which

customers became accustomed prior to 2010,

when Black Sea exporters earned a reputation

as cut-price sellers. (After last years upsets,

one might, anyway, expect less aggressive


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very late and suffered harvest delays yet ended

up with far higher yields than last years - which

went in record early and rushed to a quick finish

under an ideal mix of rain and sunshine. Far mers

will likely spare no effort to get those acr es filled

this year and maybe plant record late at these

historical prices. especially as the fertiliser that

corn needs has already been laid down. By nex t

issue we will have a much clearer picture on

how this situation is proceeding and the effect

on maize prices.

World barley output is expected to revive

from last years abysmal 123m tonnes to over131m, mainly down to a recovery in former

Soviet countries, expected to raise output from

21m to 27.5m tonnes. Some of this will go to

larger domestic consumption and some to

stocks but there should also be a little more for

export from the main regional supplier Ukraine.

European barley production is seen similar

to last years 53m tonnes with consumption

declining to a similar level (from last years 57m).

However, drought may also take a bite out of

this years EU barley crop, so these estimates are

negotiable. World consumption is meanwhile

seen slightly ahead of production, requiring

a further drawdown in global stocks. (These

have already dropped from 37m in 2009/10 to

24.4m). At this stage, all this spells a fairly taught

balance again for next season.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHSAHEAD

Can the US crop all get planted amid rainy

weather?Supplies are likely to be up from other

countries Argentina, the former Soviet

Union, Europe, putting some downward

pressure on US/world maize prices,

Some of the demand pressures on US/

global maize supplies are easing with slowing

ethanol and flattening feed consumption a

possible pointer to price restraint ahead

Reduced feed wheat/tight maize supplies

may be partially offset by a lit tle more barley

Comfortable oilmeal supplies?For soyabeans and the broader oilseed and

planting plans. If the USDAs

estimate of slightly lower US

domestic ethanol/feed and export

demand next season is correct, the

US need only expand enough to

top up the thin carryover stocks

that have lured speculators into

investing in the Chicago maize

futures market. The USDA

currently thinks this is possible and

that some overseas producers

China, Argentina, former Soviet

countries will also grow more. The marketswant to see these crops especially the US

maize harvest in the silos before trading on

them and even the USDA still thinks average

US farm-gate prices for maize will rise in the

season ahead. Yet that does not rule out a drop

in prices on the far higher futures markets

or a decline in US maize expor t prices with

their heavy influence on European and other

markets. Cheaper maize may also be favoured

by evidence of demand destruction at these

high prices and not just in fuel ethanol sector

mentioned above. US feed demand is also

seen lower next season. Against that,

competing supplies of feedwheat could be

lower if milling wheat crops get more normal

weather while a barley production, which

fell last year, will recover only partially (see

below).

If the US plants the 92.2m acres predictedby the USDA it could harvest a 343m

tonne crop versus last years 332.5m. Total

domestic demand is seen static at 293.5m

while exports are expected to dip 2.5m to

46m tonnes, leaving ending stocks near 23m

versus last years 15-year low of 18.5m and

the previous three years average of over

40m tonnes.

However, if, as the majority of our US sources

now think, rain-delayed sowing encourages

some maize farmers to plant other crops, area

could be 2m to 3m acres lower which, with

trend yields, cuts crop prospects to between

335/330m tonnes. If demand stayed the same,

that would cut ending stocks back to 18m or

even as low as 10m tonnes a figure the trade

considers unacceptable in terms of pipeline

supplies. Such a scenario would see prices rise

to ration supplies a possibility that now hassome analysts (especially the banks with their

vested interest in higher prices) talking again

about the US market going to $8 /bu ($315/

tonne) maybe far higher.

Yields from a later-planted crop also have

to be taken into consideration. A third will be

planted after mid-May when ypotential can

decline by up to a bushel per day (although US

experts stress that comes off what might have

been achieved under ideal planting conditions

a somewhat theoretical figure). If the late crops

did go in by end May and got ideal conditions

(and all the moisture will help) good yields might

not be ruled out. After all, the 2009 crop went in

The wheat market will also continue toclosely track what is happening to maize. Over

the past year, larger than usual quantities of

wheat downgraded by the weather from

milling to feed quality have been a big help

in supplementing livestock producers tight

and expensive maize supplies. This extra feed

demand also helped out a bottom under t he

wheat market in a year of larger supplies of

middling/lower grade milling/feed wheat from

Canada, Germany and Australia (outweighing

less feedwheat from the Black Sea). If the

maize market runs short again and world

wheat crops fare better quality-wise - there

could be less feed wheat available this year - a

potential firming factor for maize as well as

lower grade wheat prices.

However, despite current weather

challenges and months before all the harvests

are in - the current picture for wheat supply isnot yet a runaway bullish one. World stocks

are not yet tight and if the quality situation

improves, longer term prices for milling wheat

could yet head lower, rather than higher as

the US futures markets currently suggest.

KEY FACTORS & QUESTIONSFOR THE MONTHS AHEAD

Will drought mean a smaller than expected

European wheat crop?

Will US/Canadian spring wheat crops be

planted on time and reach area targets and

will Canada get a better summer than last year s

for a recovery in crop quality?

When will Russia and Ukraine resume selling

and how far can this additional supply dent stillinflated wheat prices?

Will dry weather hold up Western Australian

planting and will the increasingly important

exporting states in the east avoid wet harvest/

quality problems this year?

How much wheat will be fed to livestock next

season in replacement for expensive maize?

Coarse grains a fine balancefor maize

For maize, the big issue has been the threat

of wet weather delaying and downsizing US


COMMODITIES

19.2m planted acres. If the weather improves

there, it could raise production by 1.7m tonnes

and improve global supplies. If not, rapeseed will

remain tight andc expensive in Europe although

the meal price will still be set by the dominant

soya meal market.

Further forward, markets are starting to

consider next seasons Latin American soyabean

supply. High prices of soyabeans on the world

market are considered a good incentive to

keep expanding the planted area, especially in

Argentina where early estimates from USDA

suggest a significant crop increase but, at this earlystage, this is all speculative and highly subject to

weather and other factors.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS

AHEAD

The size of the US soyabean crop probably

similar to last years

Canadian, European and FSU rapeseed and

EU/FSU sunflowerseed crops

This autumns Latin American soyabean

sowings likely to be up again

Will China remain a mega buyer of

soyabeans, propping up world demand/prices?

Slower world demand growth for oilmeals

could help anchor costs

growth in sunflowerseed supplies. In the broader,

world market, though, oilmeal supplies have

been supplemented by significant increases

in cottonseed and groundnut crops, helping

to boost 2010/11 world oilmeal production

to 258m from 244m tonnes, slightly ahead of

demand.

As can be seen from the chart, European soya

meal prices have not taken off in t he same way

that grains have this year. Supplies of oilseeds, as

indicated, are not bad with world stocks likely to

be at a fairly comfortable carryover level into the

new season, if rather tight in the USA.Recently, market attention has began to

turn to Northern Hemisphere rapeseed and

sunflower crop prospects amid challenging

weather in Canada and Europe. If rapeseed

suffers yield losses from the European droughts,

the crop could be down by 1m tonnes or more,

requiring more imports. EU rapeseed meal

consumption has risen in recent years from about

9m to almost 13m tonnes, largely as a function

of bigger crops grown for their highly valuable

oil content. With the oil market already tight

because of heavy bio-fuel demand, imports will

need to increase but it is not yet clear whether

that will be more rapeseed coming in (which

would benefit meal supplies) or oil. Canada is

meanwhile having trouble sowing its crop for

which its government recently predicted a record

oilmeal sector, the immediate issue is how much

gets sown in the USA and what sor t of summer

weather arrives there. Current forecasts suggest a

slightly lower US crop than last years, which after

record Chinese demand, left stocks unusually

tight. However, some unplanted maize land could

go to soyabeans and boost this figure. Demand

for US soyabeans and products is seen lower

next season because of another massive South

American soyabean crop, flattening world meal

demand growth and less hectic demand from

China.

Latin American soya crops have comfortably

beaten all the early season forecasts and have

helped top up world oilseed stocks in a year of

disappointing rapeseed and harvests and minimal

Gri&fd milliG tcholoG may - June 2011 | 43

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Global Feed Markets: May - June 2011

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