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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
1/78
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
2/78
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
3/78
K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
Kf~pvknp
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
4/78
K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
5/78
K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
; EDPVA@XNPEAD
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6
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
6/78
K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
6
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Poh admaedm nve~e~ ok~ kiihnph` poh lkbav ^axpo K~ekd hnadaleh~ povaxmo iedkdnekc kd`pvk`h nokddhc~ ~ednh pohu kvh lavh edphmvkph` }epo mcafkc lkvghp nalzkvh` pa poh;55:~$Poh xdiac`edm mcafkc iedkdnekc nve~e~ e~ pohvhiavh okyedm `eiihvhdp vhzhvnx~~ead~ ad^axpo K~ekd hnadaleh~ pokd `xvedm poh ;55= K~ekd iedkdnekc nve~e~$ ]epo poh ednvhk~edmedphmvkpead ai poh ^axpo K~ekd hnadaleh~ kd` pohev iedkdnekc lkvghp~ }epo poh vh~p ai poh}avc`# pohvh e~ vhnamdepead pokp poh vhmead `ah~ iknh ~alh `a}d~e`h ve~g~ ival poh mcafkc
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9 Ohdnh# ^axpo K~ek e~ iknedm `hnhchvkpead ed mva}po$=
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
9
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
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Iemxvh 02 Ladpocu Elzavp Ed`h /Bxcu 6::=
8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
13/78
K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
5
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;:0$0= ;::$99 ;:5$95 ;;0$:= ;:>$58 5=$0? 5?$96 ;:8$85 ?=$98
Kzv,6::? ;:9$0> ;;;$?5 ;:6$:? ;::$>: ;:8$5? ;:=$?> ;:?$8= ;:0$55 ;::$?:Lku,
;:;$89 55$58 55$?6 ;:;$59 5>$5= ;::$68 50$66 50$>? 59$=:
Bxd,6::? 59$59 ;::$9; ;:5$59 ;;0$;6 ;:6$?: 55$5; 55$>5 ;::$9: ;:?$>:
Bxc,6::? 5=$6> ;:9$86 ;;>$56 ;;>$8? ;:?$5? ;:>$55 5>$?0 ;:6$6? ;;?$66Kxm,
?5$=8 ?9$06 ??$95 ??$?; ?8$>6 ?9$66 =6$56 ?9$59 5:$;:
^hz,
;;;$5= ;;9$88 59$;= 5;$09 ;;9$=9 ;;?$55 ;0>$90 ;;8$0? ;;>$0?Anp,6::? ;:?$6= 55$:> 5;$>? ??$?8 5?$;8 5=$:; ;:>$9? ;:8$95 5?$86
Day,
58$=6 ?8$;5 ?=$?9 =9$6= 5;$>: ?:$60 ?9$09 59$;8 5:$8>@hn,
58$?= ?6$>: ?5$06 ?6$>; ?=$?6 =?$=; ?:$50 ?5$60 50$?0
Bkd,6::5 ?=$5? ?0$58 ?8$?? ?;$8; ;:;$6= ;:>$59 ;:6$0> ??$6: ;:8$?5Ihf,
5?$55 ?>$;5 ?5$5: 5>$9> 5=$?? ??$;0 ;::$;6 50$5? 50$??
Lkv,
;;0$:0 ;;:$:5 ;:9$;6 ;;0$0> ;:=$:5 ;:;$5? ;:?$9? ;;;$9= 56$5?Kzv,6::5 5=$8= 56$:> 5>$;? ;:;$9? 50$:: 58$9; 5=$88 50$08 50$0;
Lku,
50$69 50$;5 5?$9; ;:8$=> ??$96 58$66 59$:5 50$=; 5>$8;Daph~2 IF Iaa` kd` Fhyhvkmh~7 NL Nvx`h Lkphvekc~# Edh`efch hnhzp Ixhc~7 LI Ledhvkc Ixhc~# Cxfvenkdp~ kd`Vhckph` Lkphvekc~# N)Z Nohlenkc~ kd` Vhckph` Zva`xnp~7 LM Lkdxiknpxvh` Maa`~7 ALK@Z Aiienh Lknoedhvukd` Kxpalkpen @kpk Zvanh~~edm H{xezlhdp7 P^VVH Phchnall# axd` Vhnav`edm kd` Vhzva`xnedm H{xezlhdp7HLKK Hchnpvenkc Lknoedhvu# Kzzkvkpx~ kd` Kzzcekdnh~7 LPH Lknoedhvu kd` Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp$ Nalla`epumvaxz~ iacca}h` EPN na`h~$
8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
14/78
K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
;:
^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fk~h` ad X^ Nhd~x~ Fxvhkx kpk# kykeckfch kp NHEN @kpkfk~h# oppz2!!}}}$nhen kpk$nal/knnh~~h` = Kxmx~p 6::5%$
Pkfch 92 Ladpocu Elzavp Ed`h /Bxcu 6::== ;::$59^hz,6::= 5:$00 50$5> ??$0> 9=$90 ;:;$?= ?=$>9 55$=?Anp,6::= ;:9$60 ?9$85 ;60$95 ;;?$69 ;>:$68 ;0=$59 ;:>$89Day,6::= ?9$6: 5:$5= 5;$?: 50$9= >>0$=? 9?$?> 5;$>>@hn,6::= 56$== ;;;$=; ?0$?: ;:;$;; =8$60 58$;? ?>$9=Bkd,6::? ;:;$0; ;;0$98 ;6;$85 ;98$0? ;>?$?0 ;6?$=9 ;0:$?=Ihf,6::? 5:$== 5;$96 56$00 88$08 8;$8; ?:$== 5?$00Lkv,6::? ;6:$:9 ;:?$95 ;:=$:6 ;=:$0? ;;6$>0 ;>6$?> ;:6$;;Kzv,6::? 59$?; ?:$:; 50$05 50$8; 8?$06 ?;$0> ;::$;;Lku,6::? ;;>$5; 5>$66 ;:6$9= ?5$0? 6;8$98 ??$?0 50$00Bxd,6::? 56$?6 ;;8$50 ?8$59 ?;$:? ;95$5? ;:=$?? ;:=$66Bxc,6::? ;:6$56 ;;6$== ;;:$:8 ;:=$55 >0$6> 5=$0? ;:>$??
Kxm,6::? ;;8$;= 56$9= ;:=$8= 5;$58 6:6$6; 55$6; 5;$?8^hz,6::? ?0$;5 ;:;$>8 ;:=$=: ;;=$:8 0>$=6 ;:>$6: ;:9$96Anp,6::? ;6:$88 55$>? ;:6$:; ;6>$;> ;;9$=8 5?$=6 ;:0$=:Day,6::? ?>$0: ?9$:0 =?$>5 9;$8= >?$=9 ?;$9? ?>$;8@hn,6::? 5=$?8 ;:?$95 59$8; ;:>$65 ;56$58 ;:8$=6 5>$9?Bkd,6::5 ?>$9= ;:>$>8 55$:? ?8$:> 8?$50 ;;;$9: ;:=$8=Ihf,6::5 ;:;$=8 5:$>: ?9$>9 ?>$>; =8$0: =8$6> 5=$0?Lkv,6::5 58$56 ;:=$89 ;;6$:5 ;:?$8= ;>9$>8 ;>?$06 ;;0$=6Kzv,6::5 5?$6? 5>$?; 55$?> ;6=$8; ;5;$?: ?6$65 ?8$:8Lku,6::5 ;;8$?8 9=$8: 5;$;> ?>$09 =>$0; =;$?> 58$>=Bxd,6::5 ;:9$;5 ;;:$08 5=$>0 ?8$85 ?6$9? ;;=$9; 59$::
Daph~2 IF Iaa` kd` Fhyhvkmh~7 NL Nvx`h Lkphvekc~# Edh`efch hnhzp Ixhc~7 LI Ledhvkc Ixhc~# Cxfvenkdp~ kd`Vhckph` Lkphvekc~# N)Z Nohlenkc~ kd` Vhckph` Zva`xnp~7 LM Lkdxiknpxvh` Maa`~7 ALK@Z Aiienh Lknoedhvukd` Kxpalkpen @kpk Zvanh~~edm H{xezlhdp7 P^VVH Phchnall# axd` Vhnav`edm kd` Vhzva`xnedm H{xezlhdp7
HLKK Hchnpvenkc Lknoedhvu# Kzzkvkpx~ kd` Kzzcekdnh~7 LPH Lknoedhvu kd` Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp$ Nalla`epumvaxz~ iacca}h` EPN na`h~$
^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fk~h` ad X^ Nhd~x~ Fxvhkx kph# kykeckfch kp NHEN @kpkfk~h# oppz2!!}}}$nhen kpk$nal/knnh~~h` = Kxmx~p 6::5%$
Poev`# Bkzkd vhzhkp~ poh pvhd`~ af~hvyh` ed poh X^$ Elzavp~ ai lhpkc~ okyh `vk~penkccu ikcchdival ;;>$?= ed Bxcu 6::? pa >0$:: ed Lkvno 6::5# poh ckvmh~p ikcc kladm poh maa`~ vhzavph`ohvh$ Elzavp~ ai ed`x~pvekc ~xzzceh~ /E^%# nvx`h lkphvekc~ /NL%# ledhvkc ixhc~ /LI%# ed`x~pvekcnohlenkc~ /EN%# phpech~# nkzepkc h{xezlhdp /NH%# nad~xlhv dad`xvkfch maa`~# kd` nad~xlhv`xvkfch maa`~ /N@M% kc~a iacca}h` poh ~klh `evhnpead }epo ~alh ykvekpead~$
Iaxvpo# xdcegh poh X^ kd` Bkzkd# poh HX ok~ oemohv edpvkvhmeadkc pvk`h$ Elzavp~ fu poh HXkc~a `hncedh`# fxp poh ikcc }k~ dap ~a ~phhz$ Ed ~alh nalla`epeh~# elzavp~ va~h ed poh HX
kd` X^ ival Lkvno 6::5$Ieipo# Ed`ek# ^ve Ckdgk# kd` Zkge~pkd naxc` dap h~nkzh poh ~xf~h{xhdp ikcc ed pohev hzavp~ pak`ykdnh` hnadaleh~$ ]oech ^axpo K~ek~ hzavp~ pa poh X^# Bkzkd# kd` poh HX okyh fhhdicxnpxkpedm kd` xd~phk`u ~ednh Bxcu 6::=# pohev hzavp~ pa poh~h hnadaleh~ okyh }epdh~~h` k~okvz ikcc ~ednh poh le``ch ai poh poev` {xkvphv ai 6::? /Pkfch 9%$ Iav hklzch# Bkzkd~elzavp~ ival Zkge~pkd }hdp `a}d fu ayhv 0; ed`h zaedp~ pa 8?$50 ed Bkdxkvu 6::57 poh X^~elzavp~ ival ^ve Ckdgk ihcc fu 69$> ed`h zaedp~ ed Lku 6::57 kd` poh HX~ elzavp~ ivalEd`ek `hncedh` pa ?>$;8 ed Dayhlfhv 6::?$ @xh pa }hkghdedm `hlkd`# X^ elzavp~ ival`hyhcazedm ^axpo K~ek nadpvknph` ed kcla~p kcc nalla`epeh~ `xvedm poh iaxvpo {xkvphv ai6::? kd` poh iev~p {xkvphv ai 6::5 /~hh Kzzhd`e ;%$ Dadhpohch~~# nalzkvh` pa Lku 6::5#pohvh e~ k ~cemop nokdmh ed poh pvhd` ed Bxdh 6::5# }ohd elzavp~ ai Bkzkd# poh X^# kd` poh
HX ival poh povhh ^axpo K~ekd naxdpveh~ mhdhvkccu va~h$
8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
15/78
K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
;;
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0 NALZA^EPEADKC NOKDMH ED H_ZAVP^ KD@LKDXIKNPXVEDM MAA@^ ZVA@XNPEAD
Axv afbhnpeyh e~ pa ied` axp poh hiihnp ai nokdmh ed pvk`h ad poh ed`x~pvu ad zkvpenxckv
zva`xnp~$ Axv kvmxlhdp e~ }ohd k naxdpvu pvk`h~ ed `eiihvhdpekph` maa`~# ep~ zva`xnpead~hnpav }ecc okyh nuncenkc cedg~ }epo poh pvk`h ~hnpav$ Poh zva`xnp nalza~epead ed pohzva`xnpead ~hnpav }ecc dhnh~~kvecu fh mxe`h` fu poh nokdmh ed nalza~epead ed pvk`h` maa`~$Pohvhiavh# }h iev~p lhk~xvh k nalza~epead nokdmh ed`h /NNE% iav pvk`h kd` ed`x~pvu$ Pohed`h pkgh~ poh iacca}edm ~okzh2
Pkfch =2 Nokdmh~ ed Hzavp Nalza~epead ed Ed`ek
Zhvea` /U pa U% NNE Zva`xnp~ }epo Za~epeyh Nokdmh~
Bkdxkvu 6::=Bkdxkvu 6::?
:$:98
Chkpohv kd` Chkpohv Zva`xnp~
Bxph kd` Bxph Zva`xnp~
Nohlenkc~ kd` Nohlenkc Zva`xnp~
@vxm~# Zokvlknhxpenkc~# kd` Iedh Nohlenkc~ Iaa` kd` Fhyhvkmh~
Hchnpvaden Maa`~
Lhpkc~ kd` Lhpkc Zva`xnp~
Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp
Na~lhpen~ kd` Paechpveh~
Zkzhv kd` ]aa` Zva`xnp~
Bkdxkvu 6::?Bkdxkvu 6::5 :$;0=
Vhk`ulk`h Mkvlhdp~
Hchnpvaden Maa`~
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Bkdxkvu 6::=Bkdxkvu 6::5
:$;9?
Chkpohv kd` Chkpohv Zva`xnp~ Bxph kd` Bxph Zva`xnp~
@vxm~# Zokvlknhxpenkc~# kd` Iedh Nohlenkc~
Iaa` kd` Fhyhvkmh~
Hchnpvaden Maa`~
Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp
Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp
Na~lhpen~ kd` Paechpveh~
Bkdxkvu 6::=Ihfvxkvu 6::5 :$;;;
Vhk`ulk`h Mkvlhdp~
@vxm~# Zokvlknhxpenkc~# kd` Iedh Nohlenkc~
Iaa` kd` Fhyhvkmh~
Hchnpvaden Maa`~
Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp
Na~lhpen~ kd` Paechpveh~
Bxcu 6::?Ihfvxkvu 6::5
:$;66
Vhk`ulk`h Mkvlhdp~
Mhl~ kd` Bh}hcvu
@vxm~# Zokvlknhxpenkc~# kd` IedhNohlenkc~
Iaa` kd` Fhyhvkmh~
Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp
Lkvedh Zva`xnp~^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
18/78
K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
;0
Pkfch ?2 Nokdmh~ ed Lkdxiknpxvedm Nalza~epead ed Ed`ek
Zhvea` /U pa U% NNE Zva`xnp~ }epo Za~epeyh Nokdmh~
Bkdxkvu 6::=
Bkdxkvu 6::?
:$:>;
Iaa` Zva`xnp~
Fhyhvkmh~# Pafknna# kd` Vhckph` Zva`xnp~
Bxph kd` Apohv Yhmhpkfch Iefhv Phpech~ /h$ nappad%
Chkpohv kd` Ixv Zva`xnp~
Fk~en Nohlenkc~ kd` Nohlenkc Zva`xnp~
Lhpkc Zva`xnp~ kd` Zkvp~ /h$ Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp%
Bkdxkvu 6::?Bkdxkvu 6::5
:$:>= Fhyhvkmh~# Pafknna# kd` Vhckph` Zva`xnp~
]aac# ^ecg# kd` Lkdlk`h Iefhv Phpech~
Fk~en Nohlenkc~ kd` Nohlenkc Zva`xnp~
Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp /h$ Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp%
Bxcu 6::=Bxcu6::?
:$:>6
Fhyhvkmh~# Pafknna# kd` Vhckph` Zva`xnp~
Phpech Zva`xnp~# Edncx`edm ]hkvedm Kzzkvhc
Fk~en Lhpkc kd` Kccau Ed`x~pveh~
Lhpkc Zva`xnp~ kd` Zkvp~ /h$ Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp%
Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp /h$ Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp% Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp kd` Zkvp~
Bkdxkvu 6::=Lku 6::5 :$:96
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Bxph kd` Apohv Yhmhpkfch Iefhv Phpech~ /h$ nappad%
Phpech Zva`xnp~# Edncx`edm ]hkvedm Kzzkvhc
]aa` kd` ]aa` Zva`xnp~7 Ixvdepxvh kd` Iepxvh~
Chkpohv kd` Ixv Zva`xnp~
Fk~en Nohlenkc~ kd` Nohlenkc Zva`xnp~
Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp /h$ Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp%
Bxcu 6::?Lku6::5
:$:>:
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]aa` kd` ]aa` Zva`xnp~7 Ixvdepxvh kd` Iepxvh~
Chkpohv kd` Ixv Zva`xnp~
Vxffhv# Zhpvachxl# Zck~pen# kd` Nakc Zva`xnp~ Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp /h$ Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp%
Bxcu 6::?Ihfvxkvu 6::5
:$:00
Iaa` Zva`xnp~
Fhyhvkmh~# Pafknna# kd` Vhckph` Zva`xnp~
]aac# ^ecg# kd` Lkdlk`h Iefhv Phpech~
Vxffhv# Zhpvachxl# Zck~pen# kd` Nakc Zva`xnp~
Lknoedhvu kd` H{xezlhdp /h$ Pvkd~zavp H{xezlhdp%" NNE < Nalza~epead Nokdmh Ed`h$
^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
Poh nalza~epead nokdmh ed`h /NNE% iav pvk`h kd` ed`x~pvu ok~ fhhd nkcnxckph` iacca}edmh{xkpead~ ; kd` 6 iav Ed`ek fk~h` ad ladpocu `kpk ival Bkdxkvu 6::= pa Lku 6::5 iav
lkdxiknpxvedm maa`~ kd` ival Bkdxkvu 6::= pa Ihfvxkvu 6::5 iav hzavp maa`~$ NNE ~navh~iav Ed`ek~ hzavp~ kcadm }epo nalla`epeh~ }epo za~epeyh nokdmh kvh vhzavph` ed Pkfch =#}ohvhk~ poh ~klh ~navh~ iav lkdxiknpxvedm kvh vhzavph` ed Pkfch ?$ Poh iacca}edmaf~hvykpead~ kvh }avpo dapedm$
Iev~p# ykvekpead~ ed NNE ~navh~ ed Ed`ek~ hzavp~ /Pkfch =% ~xmmh~p ~oeipedm ai zva`xnp~ knva~~zhvea`~ e~ yhvu ivh{xhdp$ K nalzkve~ad fhp}hhd p}a vhckpeyhcu cadmhv pelh zaedp~ e~ ceghcu paokyh k oemohv NNE ~navh# ed nk~h ~oeipedm e~ zhvyk~eyh$ Poe~ ok~ fhhd }epdh~~h` iav pohzhvea` Bkdxkvu 6::= pa Bkdxkvu 6::5 /:$;9?%$ @xvedm Bxcu 6::? pa Ihfvxkvu 6::5# poh NNE~navh `hnvhk~h` pa :$;66# ~xmmh~pedm ~}epnoedm ai zva`xnp~$ Ayhv ;:( ai hzavp vhyhdxhnklh ival dh} zva`xnp~ av xdhyhd hzkd~ead ai ac` zva`xnp~# }ohvhk~ poh ~klh iknpav~nadpvefxph` ayhv ;8( ai hzavp vhyhdxh `xvedm Bkdxkvu 6::? pa Bkdxkvu 6::5 kd` Bkdxkvu
6::= pa Bkdxkvu 6::5$
8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
19/78
K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
;8
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Poev`# NNE ~navh~ ed Pkfch ? ~xmmh~p pokp zva`xnp ~oeipedm }k~ vhckpeyhcu ~pvadmhv `xvedm pohzhvea` Bkdxkvu 6::= pa Lku 6::5 /:$:96%# nalzkvh` pa apohv zhvea`~ nad~e`hvh` ed poe~~px`u$ Poh x~xkc nkyhkp e~ pokp poh h~pelkph` oemohv ~navh ai poh NNE e~ k~~anekph` }epocadmhv,zhvea` af~hvykpead~$ Poh ca}hv lkmdepx`h ai poh NNE knva~~ `eiihvhdp nalzkvkfchzhvea`~ ed lkdxiknpxvedm kc~a nadievl~ pokp ~oeipedm ai zva`xnp~ e~ dap yhvu vkze` ed `alh~penlkdxiknpxvedm$ Ep kc~a ~xmmh~p~ nalza~epeadkc nokdmh ok~ kc}ku~ fhhd ch~~ pokd 8( edlkdxiknpxvedm ed Ed`ek$ Poh za~epeyh nalza~epeadkc nokdmh }k~ }epdh~~h` ed nkphmaveh~ ~xnok~ iaa` zva`xnp~7 fhyhvkmh~# pafknna# kd` vhckph` zva`xnp~7 bxph kd` apohv yhmhpkfch iefhvphpech~7 vxffhv# zhpvachxl# zck~pen# kd` nakc zva`xnp~7 chkpohv kd` ixv zva`xnp~7 kd`
lknoedhvu kd` h{xezlhdp$
Iemxvh =2 Ladpocu Pvhd`~ ed NNE /Ed`x~pvu% kd` NNE /Pvk`h%
X^ nve~e~ ~pkvp~# Bxcu 6::=
:
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nneQed`x~pvu nneQpvk`h
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
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8/6/2019 Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
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NNE /ed`x~pvu% Hzavp~ pa X^ Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Hzavp~ pa HX
:
6:
0:
9:
?:
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
:
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Zhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai NNE / Ed`x~pvu% /Za~pnve~e~% xh pa
NNE /ed`x~pvu% Hzavp~ pa X^ Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Hzavp~ pa HX
:
6:
0:
9:
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;::
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
:
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
60
Iemxvh ;:2 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai NNE /Ed`x~pvu% /Adh ^p @hy ^oang%2 Papkc Zhvea`
NNE /ed`x~pvu% Hzavp~ pa X^ Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Hzavp~ pa HX
, :$ ::8
:$ :::
:$ ::8
:$ :;:
:$ :;8
; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::8
:$ :::
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:$ :;:
:$ :;8
; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::8
:$ :::
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:$ :;:
:$ :;8
; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::8
:$ :::
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:$ :;:
:$ :;8
; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai NNE /Ed`x~pvu% /Papkc Zhvea`% `xh pa
NNE /ed`x~pvu% Hzavp~ pa X^ Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Hzavp~ pa HX
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
68
Iemxvh ;;2 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai NNE /Ed`x~pvu% /Adh p @hy ^oang%2 Zvh,Nve~e~
NNE /ed`x~pvu% Elzavp~ ival X^ Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival HX
, :$ ::?
, :$ ::0
:$ :::
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:$ :;6
; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::?
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::?
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::?
, :$ ::0
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai NNE /Ed`x~pvu% /Adh ^p @hy oang%2 Za~pnve~e~
NNE /ed`x~pvu% Elzavp~ ival X^ Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival HX
, :$ :9
, :$ :0
, :$ :6
:$ ::
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ :9
, :$ :0
, :$ :6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ :9
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ :9
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
69
Iemxvh ;62 Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai NNE /Ed`x~pvu% /Zvh,Nve~e~% `xh pa
NNE /ed`x~pvu% Elzavp~ ival X^ Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival HX
:
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Zhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai NNE /Ed`x~pvu% /Za~pnve~e~% xh pa
NNE /ed`x~pvu% Elzavp~ ival X^ Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival HX
:
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9:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
6=
Iemxvh ;>2 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai NNE /Ed`x~pvu% /Adh ^p @hy ^oang%2 Papkc Zhvea`
NNE /ed`x~pvu% Elzavp~ ival X^ Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival HX
, :$ ::8
:$ :::
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:$ :;:
:$ :;8
; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::8
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::8
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::8
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epead
Zhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai NNE /Ed`x~pvu% /Za~pnve~e~% xh pa
NNE /ed`x~pvu% Elzavp~ ival X^ Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival HX
:
6:
0:
9:
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
6?
Iemxvh ;02 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai Ed`ek~ Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Adh p @hy ^oang%2 Zvh,nve~e~
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa X^ Elzavp~ ival X^ X^ M@Z
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Zvh,Nve~e~% xh pa
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa X^ Elzavp~ ival X^ X^ M@Z
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
65
Iemxvh ;82 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai Ed`ek~ Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Adh p @hy ^oang%2 Za~pnve~e~
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa X^ Elzavp~ ival X^ X^ M@Z
, :$ ::>
, :$ ::6
, :$ ::;
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::>
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, :$ ::>
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::>
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Za~pnve~e~% `xh pa
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa X^ Elzavp~ ival X^ X^ M@Z
:
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
>:
Iemxvh ;92 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai Ed`ek~ Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Adh ^p @hy ^oang%2 Papkc Zhvea`
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa X^ Elzavp~ ival X^ X^ M@Z
, :$ ::6
, :$ ::;
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Papkc Zhvea`% `xh pa
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa X^ Elzavp~ ival X^ X^ M@Z
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
>;
Iemxvh ;=2 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai Ed`ek~ Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Adh p @hy ^oang%2 Zvh,Nve~e~
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Bkzkd M@Z
, :$ ::6
, :$ ::;
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Zvh,Nve~e~% xh pa
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Bkzkd M@Z
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
>6
Iemxvh ;?2 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai Ed`ek~ Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Adh p @hy ^oang%2 Za~pnve~e~
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Bkzkd M@Z
, :$ :>
, :$ :6
, :$ :;
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ :>
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ :>
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ :>
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Za~pnve~e~% `xh pa
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Bkzkd M@Z
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
>>
Iemxvh ;52 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai Ed`ek~ Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Adh ^p @hy ^oang%2 Papkc Zhvea`
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Bkzkd M@Z
, :$ ::6
, :$ ::;
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Papkc Zhvea`% `xh pa
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa Bkzkd Elzavp~ ival Bkzkd Bkzkd M@Z
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
>0
Iemxvh 6:2 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai Ed`ek~ Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Adh p @hy ^oang%2 Zvh,nve~e~
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa HX Elzavp~ ival HX HX M@Z
,:$ ::6
,:$ ::;
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
,:$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
, :$ ::6
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
,:$ ::6
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Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Zvh,Nve~e~% xh pa
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa HX Elzavp~ ival HX HX M@Z
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
>8
Iemxvh 6;2 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai Ed`ek~ Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Adh p @hy ^oang%2 Za~pnve~e~
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa HX Elzavp~ ival HX HX M@Z
, :$ ::0
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
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; 6 > 0 8 9 = ? 5 ;:
Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Za~pnve~e~% `xh pa
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa HX Elzavp~ ival HX HX M@Z
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
>9
Iemxvh 662 Elzxc~h Vh~zad~h ai Ed`ek~ Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Adh ^p @hy ^oang%2 Papkc Zhvea`
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa HX Elzavp~ ival HX HX M@Z
, :$ ::6
, :$ ::;
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Ykvekdnh @hnalza~epeadZhvnhdp Ykvekdnh ai Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea /Papkc Zhvea`% `xh pa
Pvk`h,M@Z Vkpea Hzavp~ pa HX Elzavp~ ival HX HX M@Z
:
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^axvnh2 Nkcnxckph` fu poh kxpoav~$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 656 @h kd` Dhame
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Ieipo# Ed`ek~ pvk`h azhddh~~ /pvk`h,M@Z vkpea% ok~ vh~zad`h` lec`cu pa poh ~oang ai hzavp~pa X^$ Iemxvh~ ;0 pa 66 zvh~hdp poh hiihnp ai hzavp~# elzavp~# kd` M@Z ai hkno naxdpvu adpoh ykvekpead ai pvk`h azhddh~~ /pvk`h,M@Z vkpea% ai Ed`ek `xvedm poh zvh,nve~e~# za~pnve~e~#kd` papkc zhvea`~$ Ep e~ af~hvyh` ival Iemxvh ;0 pokp poh pvk`h,M@Z vkpea ai Ed`ek ok~vh~zad`h` lec`cu pa poh adh ~pkd`kv` `hyekpead ~oang ai hzavp~ pa poh X^$ Oa}hyhv#
elzavp~ ival poh X^ kd` poh X^ M@Z okyh yhvu ceppch hiihnp ad poh ykvekpead ai pvk`hazhddh~~ /pvk`h,M@Z vkpea% ai Ed`ek$ Iemxvh ;8 ~oa}~ pokp `xvedm poh za~pnve~e~ zhvea` pohykvekdnh ai hzavp~ pa poh X^# elzavp~ ival poh X^# kd` X^ M@Z pamhpohv okyh hzckedh`kfaxp 0:( ai poh ykvekpead ai poh pvk`h,M@Z vkpea ai Ed`ek$ Iemxvh ;9 meyh~ poh vh~zad~h aipoh pvk`h,M@Z vkpea ai Ed`ek ad poh~h ykvekfch~ `xvedm poh papkc zhvea`$ Ohvh# poh vh~xcp~ kvh~eleckv pa poa~h ai poh zvh,nve~e~ zhvea`$ Poh hiihnp ai ykvekpead ai hzavp~ pa Bkzkd# elzavp~ival Bkzkd# kd` Bkzkd M@Z ad poh ykvekpead ai Ed`ek~ pvk`h,M@Z vkpea `xvedm poh zvh,nve~e~#za~pnve~e~# kd` papkc zhvea`~ kvh meyhd ed Iemxvh~ ;=# ;?# kd` ;5$ Ep e~ af~hvyh` pokp `xvedm pohza~pnve~e~ zhvea` kfaxp >:( ai poh ykvekpead ai pvk`h,M@Z vkpea ai Ed`ek e~ hzckedh` fu pohykvekpead ai hzavp~ pa Bkzkd# }oech poh iemxvh }k~ ch~~ pokd 6:( `xvedm poh zvh,nve~e~ zhvea`$Ad poh apohv okd`# ei }h nad~e`hv poh hdpevh zhvea` /Iemxvh ;5% poh ykvekpead ed hzavp~#elzavp~# kd` M@Z hzcked yhvu ceppch ai poh ykvekpead ai pvk`h,M@Z vkpea ai Ed`ek$ Iemxvh~ 6:#
6;# kd` 66 ~oa} poh hiihnp ai poh ykvekpead ai hzavp~ pa# elzavp~ ival# kd` M@Z ai poh HX adpoh ykvekpead ai poh pvk`h,M@Z vkpea ai Ed`ek iav poh p}a ~xfzhvea`~ kd` iav poh hdpevh zhvea`$Poh ykvekpead ai poh~h ykvekfch~ ok~ ceppch av da hiihnp ad poh pvk`h,M@Z vkpea ai Ed`ek ed fapopoh zvh, kd` poh za~pnve~e~ zhvea`~ k~ }hcc k~ iav poh papkc zhvea` k~ k }oach$
Pa nadncx`h# ied`edm~ ai poh YKV kdkcu~e~ `hlad~pvkph pokp Ed`ek~ pvk`h }epo poh X^#naxzch` }epo X^ M@Z# ~emdeienkdpcu nadpvefxph~ pa poh ykvekfecepu ai Ed`ek~ pvk`h azhddh~~ edpoh nve~e~ zhvea`# knnaxdpedm iav 0:( ai poh ykvekpead ai poh pvk`h,M@Z vkpea ai Ed`ek# }ohvhk~Ed`ek~ pvk`h }epo poh HX kd` Bkzkd kd` pohev M@Z~ okyh hepohv da hiihnp av ed~emdeienkdphiihnp ad Ed`ek~ pvk`h azhddh~~$
? NADNCX^EAD^ KD@ ZACENU ELZCENKPEAD^Ykvekpead~ ed NNE ~navh~ ed Ed`ek~ hzavp~ ~xmmh~p ~oeipedm ai zva`xnp~ knva~~ zhvea`~ e~ yhvuivh{xhdp$ Hzkd~ead~ ai he~pedm zva`xnp~ av nvhkpead ai dh} zva`xnp~ ival 6::= pa 6::5 edEd`ekd hzavp~ okyh fhhd dapenh` ed vhk`ulk`h mkvlhdp~7 chkpohv kd` chkpohv zva`xnp~7 bxphkd` bxph zva`xnp~7 lknoedhvu kd` h{xezlhdp7 hchnpvaden maa`~7 `vxm~# zokvlknhxpenkc~ kd`iedh nohlenkc~7 iaa` kd` fhyhvkmh~7 pvkd~zavp h{xezlhdp7 kd` na~lhpen~ kd` paechpveh~$Oa}hyhv# pohvh ok~ fhhd k ~lkcc nalza~epeadkc nokdmh `xvedm poh admaedm nve~e~ zhvea`~ednh Bxcu 6::? ed vhk`ulk`h mkvlhdp~7 mhl~ kd` bh}hcvu7 `vxm~# zokvlknhxpenkc~# kd` iedhnohlenkc~7 iaa` kd` fhyhvkmh~7 pvkd~zavp h{xezlhdp7 kd` lkvedh zva`xnp~# }ohvhk~ pohapohv hzavp~ }epdh~~h` hepohv rhva av dhmkpeyh nokdmh$ Poh h~pelkph` NNE ~navh~ ed`enkphnalza~epeadkc nokdmh ok~ kc}ku~ fhhd ch~~ pokd 8( ed poh ed`x~pvekc ~hnpav ed Ed`ek$ Poh
za~epeyh nalza~epeadkc nokdmh ok~ fhhd }epdh~~h` ed zva`xnp~ ~xno k~ iaa` zva`xnp~7fhyhvkmh~# pafknna# kd` vhckph` zva`xnp~7 bxph kd` apohv yhmhpkfch iefhv phpech~7 vxffhv#zhpvachxl# zck~pen# kd` nakc zva`xnp~7 chkpohv kd` ixv zva`xnp~7 kd` lknoedhvu kd`h{xezlhdp$ Pohvh ok~ dap fhhd lxno nalza~epeadkc nokdmh ed lkdxiknpxvedm za~p,Bxcu 6::?pokp lkpnoh~ Ed`ek~ hzavp~# hnhzp ed iaa` kd` fhyhvkmh~$
Poh NNE ~navh~ kc~a ed`enkph pokp hzavp~ ai lkdxiknpxvedm maa`~ xd`hv}hdp lavh ~}hhzedmnokdmh~ ed zva`xnp nalza~epead pokd poa~h ed zva`xnpead ai lkdxiknpxvedm maa`~$ Meyhd pohk`ykdpkmh ai `hzvhnekpedm nxvvhdnu# poe~ e~ dap ~xvzve~edm# fhnkx~h ednhdpeyh~ kvh vhckpeyhcuoemohv ed pvk`h# apohv poedm~ fhedm h{xkc# pokd ed lkdxiknpxvedm# zkvpenxckvcu ed poh ~oavp vxd$Lavh ~}hhzedm nokdmh~ kvh pkgedm zcknh ed poh hzavp ~hnpav pokd ed lkdxiknpxvedm$ Pohladpocu kmmvhmkph NNE iav lkdxiknpxvedm kc~a nadievl~ poe~$ Pohvhiavh# poh hzavp ~hnpav
mhdhvkph~ lkbav nalzxc~ead iav k`bx~plhdp kd` vh~pvxnpxvedm$ Poh femmhv poh hzavp ~hnpav#poh ckvmhv e~ poh vh~pvxnpxvedm dhh`$
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K@FE ]avgedm Zkzhv 650 @h kd` Dhame
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Nokdmh~ ed vhckpeyh zvenh~ iav pvk`h` maa`~# ed k``epead pa nokdmh~ ed na~p~ ai zva`xnpead kd`pvkd~zavpkpead# chk` pa vh~pvxnpxvedm ed zva`xnp nalza~epead# ~hvyedm `alh~pen av hphvdkc`hlkd`$ Zkvp ai poh nokdmh ed zva`xnp le lku fh k dkpxvkc vh~zad~h pa nokdmh ed vhckpeyhzvenh~ }epoaxp vhavmkderedm poh zva`xnpead ~pvxnpxvh# vhpaacedm ai poh zva`xnpead phnodacamu#av vh`xnedm pvkd~zavpkpead na~p~$ Ohdnh# axv ed`h dhh`~ pa fh edphvzvhph` k~ k fvak`lhk~xvh ai vh~pvxnpxvedm ed vh~zad~h pa fapo zvenh ~emdkc~ kd` na~p iknpav~$
Poh kdkcu~e~ nkvveh` axp ed poe~ ~px`u ed`evhnpcu ed`enkph~ pokp lavh kppvepead kd` `e~lkdpcedmai zva`xnp cedh~ paag zcknh kladm hzavp maa`~$ K~ pvk`h e~ x~xkccu knnalzkdeh` fu zva`xnpvhcankpead /ival nalzhpedm elzavp~ pa poh hzavp ~hnpav%# dh} zva`xnp~ }ecc vhzcknh axpmaedmadh~# av he~pedm zva`xnp~ }ecc hzkd` pa iecc poh yknxxl chip fu vhcankpead$ Poe~ vhcankpead kd`k`bx~plhdp }ecc kc~a okyh fapo hnadalen kd` ~anekc na~p~# ei dap mxe`h` zvazhvcu$
]oech k~~h~~edm poh elzknp ai poh mcafkc nve~e~ ad pvk`h kd` ed`x~pvu ed Ed`ek# poh h~pelkph`vh~xcp~ ai zkdhc `kpk la`hc~ ~oa} pokp nokdmh ed pvk`h nalza~epead e~ za~epeyhcu k~~anekph`}epo nokdmh ed lkdxiknpxvedm nalza~epead# nadpvaccedm iav apohv ykvekfch~# fxp poh h~pelkph`nahiienehdp~ kvh dap ~pkpe~penkccu ~emdeienkdp$ Oa}hyhv# pohvh e~ k za~epeyh phd`hdnu pa}kv` na,layhlhdp ai nalza~epeadkc nokdmh~ ed hzavp~ kd` ed`x~pvu$ Kcpoaxmo poh elzknp lemop fh
lec`# ikccedm hzavp~ kvh ceghcu pa kiihnp poh nalza~epeadkc nokdmh ed poh ed`x~pvekc ~hnpavdhmkpeyhcu$ Pohvhiavh# pohvh e~ da ~pvadm ed`enkpead pa nadievl pokp Ed`ek~ ed`x~pvekc ~hnpavok~ fhhd okv~ocu kiihnph` fu poh admaedm mcafkc nve~e~# fxp ep~ lec` hiihnp nkddap fh vhixph`$Poe~ kc~a ~xmmh~p~ pokp ei poh nve~e~ nadpedxh~# ed`x~pvekc vh~pvxnpxvedm }axc` fh dhh`h` pa~xzzavp poh hnadalu$ ]oech nalza~epeadkc nokdmh ed ed`x~pvu ed Ed`ek ok~ fhhd ~pelxckph`fu Ed`ek~ hzavp~ pa poh HX kd` Bkzkd# ep~ h~pelkph` zkvklhphv ok~ fhhd dhmkpeyh ed pohnk~h ai poh X^$ Poe~ lku fh fhnkx~h poh X^ e~ Ed`ek~ zvednezkc hzavp lkvghp kd` ep e~~hyhvhcu kiihnph` fu poh mcafkc nve~e~7 fhnkx~h pohvh kvh ~alh apohv vhk~ad~ /h$m$# `e~pkdnh%}oeno poh la`hc~ ikec pa nkzpxvh7 av fhnkx~h ckvmhv `e~pkdnh lkgh~ ep lavh hzhd~eyh pahzavp# ~a poh ikcc ed `hlkd` elzknp ok~ fhnalh ~pvadmhv$ Nalzkvh` pa hzavp~ pa poh X^#Ed`ek~ hzavp~ pa Bkzkd kd` poh HX okyh fhhd ch~~ kiihnph`$ Pohvh e~ da ~pvadm ed`enkpeadpokp Ed`ekd ed`x~pvu ok~ fhhd ~hyhvhcu okvlh` fu poh ikcc ed `hlkd` ed nve~e~,kiihnph`
k`ykdnh` hnadaleh~ cegh poh X^# poh HX# kd` Bkzkd# apohv poedm~ fhedm nad~pkdp$ Pohh~pelkph` la`hc~ kc~a ~oa} pokp zvenh ve~h ok~ `elede~oh` ed`x~pvekc nalza~epead ed Ed`ek$
^ednh pohvh lku fh ckm~ fhp}hhd nokdmh~ ed nalza~epead ed hzavp~ kd` ed`x~pvu# }h okyhpohvhiavh x~h` poh YKV phnode{xh pa ied` axp poh hiihnp ai poh mcafkc nve~e~ ~oang~ ad Ed`ek~ed`x~pvekc nalza~epeadkc nokdmh kd` poh pvk`h azhddh~~$ ]h iaxd` pokp NNE /ed`x~pvu% ok~vh~zad`h` ~emdeienkdpcu pa hzavp~ pa poh X^# Bkzkd# kd` poh HX `xvedm poh nve~e~ zhvea`$@xvedm poh zvh,nve~e~ zhvea` NNE /ed`x~pvu% `e` dap vh~zad` ~emdeienkdpcu pa ~oang~ ed hzavp~pa poh X^# Bkzkd# kd` poh HX$ Oa}hyhv# `xvedm poh nve~e~ zhvea` NNE /ed`x~pvu% ok~vh~zad`h` ~emdeienkdpcu pa hzavp~ pa poh X^# Bkzkd# kd` poh HX$ Fxp poh vh~zad~h ai NNE/ed`x~pvu% pa hzavp~ pa Bkzkd kd` poh HX kvh ca}hv# nalzkvh` pa hzavp~ pa poh X^# kd` pohvh~zad~h pa ep~ a}d ~oang ok~ `hncedh` ~emdeienkdpcu `xvedm poh nve~e~ zhvea`$ Ykvekdnh
`hnalza~epead ai NNE /ed`x~pvu% vhyhkc~ pokp `xvedm poh zvh,nve~e~ zhvea` kcla~p ;::( ai pohykvekpead ed NNE /ed`x~pvu% `hzhd`~ ad ep~ a}d ykvekpead# }oech ed poh nve~e~ zhvea` kfaxp 6:(ai poh ykvekpead ed NNE /ed`x~pvu% `hzhd`~ ad poh hzavp~ pa poh HX# Bkzkd# kd` poh X^$Pox~# poh hiihnp ai ~oang~ ai Ed`ek~ hzavp~ pa k`ykdnh` hnadaleh~ `xvedm poh nve~e~ zhvea`ok~ fhhd pvkd~lepph` pa Ed`ekd ed`x~pvu$
Ed`ekd ed`x~pvu ok~ dap vh~zad`h` ~emdeienkdpcu pa poh ~oang~ ai elzavp~ ival poh X^# Bkzkd#kd` poh HX# }oech poh vh~zad~h pa ep~ a}d ~oang~ e~ ~emdeienkdp `xvedm fapo zvh, kd`za~pnve~e~ zhvea`~$ NNE /ed`x~pvu% ok~ dap vh~zad`h` ~emdeienkdpcu pa poh ~oang~ ai elzavp~ival poh X^# Bkzkd# kd` poh HX# }oech poh vh~zad~h pa ep~ a}d ~oang~ e~ ~emdeienkdp `xvedmfapo zvh, kd` za~pnve~e~ zhvea`~$ Poh ~oang~ ed elzavp~ pa poh X^# Bkzkd# kd` poh HX okyhceppch edicxhdnh ad poh ykvekdnh ai NNE /ed`x~pvu% `xvedm zvh, kd` za~pnve~e~ zhvea`~$
Iedkccu# Ed`ek~ pvk`h azhddh~~ /pvk`h,M@Z vkpea% ok~ vh~zad`h` lec`cu pa poh ~oang aihzavp~ pa X^$ Oa}hyhv# elzavp~ ival poh X^ kd` poh X^ M@Z okyh yhvu ceppch hiihnp ad
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Ed`ek~ ykvekpead ai pvk`h azhddh~~ /pvk`h,M@Z vkpea%$ Ed`ek~ pvk`h }epo poh X^# naxzch` }epoX^ M@Z# ~emdeienkdpcu nadpvefxph~ pa poh ykvekfecepu ai Ed`ek~ pvk`h azhddh~~ ed poh nve~e~zhvea`# knnaxdpedm iav 0:( ai poh ykvekpead ai poh pvk`h,M@Z vkpea ai Ed`ek# }ohvhk~ Ed`ek~pvk`h }epo ai poh HX kd` Bkzkd kd` pohev M@Z~ okyh hepohv da hiihnp av ed~emdeienkdp hiihnpad Ed`ek~ pvk`h azhddh~~$
Poe~ ~px`u ~xmmh~p~ pokp Ed`ekd ed`x~pvu ok~ dap fhhd ~emdeienkdpcu okvlh` fu poh admaedmmcafkc iedkdnekc kd` hnadalen nve~e~$ Kcpoaxmo Ed`ek nadpedxh~ pa hdbau ckvmh `alh~pen`hlkd`# poh nalza~epeadkc nokdmh /za~epeyh% ed lkdxiknpxvedm }axc` `hnvhk~h ei poh nve~e~nadpedxh~# vh~xcpedm ed k ~ca}`a}d ed mva}po kd` k ve~h ed hnadalen ~pkmdkpead$ Poe~ }axc`kc~a nkx~h oxmh ~anekc zvafchl~ ed Ed`ek# zkvpenxckvcu ed poa~h hzavp ~hnpav~ }oeno kvhckfavedphd~eyh$ Pohvhiavh# pohvh e~ k dhh` iav ed`x~pvekc vh~pvxnpxvedm pa ~pvhdmpohd Ed`ek~yk~p lkdxiknpxvedm ~hnpav kd` mva}edm pvk`h ~hnpav# kd` kc~a iav poh mvhkphv nkx~h ai ~anekczvaphnpead kd` iav fxec`edm kd hiihnpeyh ~kihpu dhp$ Zvh~xlkfcu# apohv ^axpo K~ekd naxdpveh~okyh pa iacca} ~xep$
^x~pkedh` hnadalen mva}po nkd nadpvefxph pa zayhvpu vh`xnpead$ Ed`hh`# naxdpveh~ pokp okyhhdbauh` cadm hnadalen mva}po okyh }epdh~~h` lkvgh` `hncedh~ ed zayhvpu$ Fxp k mcafkc
hnadalen nve~e~ naxc` ivx~pvkph ~xno `hyhcazlhdp$ Poh zvh~hdp nve~e~ e~ pohvhiavh {xeph}avve~alh iav poa~h naxdpveh~ }oeno kvh ohkyecu `hzhd`hdp ad hkvdedm~ ival pvk`h iav poheva}d ~anekc `hyhcazlhdp zvamvkl~$ Hyhd poaxmo naxdpveh~ nkd vhnayhv {xengcu ival pohnve~e~# pohu lku dap vhpxvd pa poh ~klh mva}po zkpo k~ fhiavh poh nve~e~# pox~ `hckuedm`hyhcazlhdp ixvpohv $ Poe~ xd`hvcedh~ ~pvadm ~anekc zacenu edepekpeyh~ ed poh hdpevh vhmead$
Ed poh iknh ai ~ce`edm }avc` `hlkd`# hiiavp~ pa vke~h zva`xnpeyepu kd` nalzhpepeyhdh~~ ohcznaxdpveh~ zvaphnp hzavp lkvghp ~okvh~$ Afyeax~cu pohvh e~ dhh` ai ixvpohv pvk`h cefhvkcerkpeaded K~ek# }oeno }ecc ~pelxckph poh pvk`h }epoed poh vhmead$ Pox~# k ~pvxnpxvkc ~oeip ed hzavp,ch`zva`xnpead ai K~ekd hnadaleh~ k}ku ival poh k`ykdnh` hnadaleh~ pa poh hlhvmedm kd`vhmeadkc lkvghp~ ed poh lh`exl pa cadm vxd e~ edhyepkfch /K`kl~ kd` Zkvg 6::5%$ Pxvdedmnve~e~ edpa azzavpxdepeh~# K~ek /edncx`edm Ed`ek% ~oaxc` nadpedxh }epo vhiavl~ iav ~pvhdmpohdedmvhmeadkc `hlkd` kd` ~xf~h{xhdpcu poh mcafkc `hlkd`$ K~ daph` ed Iemxvh 6># ~pvenp iedkdnekczvx`hdnh naxzch` }epo vhmeadkc `hlkd``veyhd mva}po vhfkckdnedm kvh ~xmmh~ph` lhk~xvh~iav mva}po vhnayhvu ed poh lh`exl pa cadm vxd$ Poe~ lemop kc~a meyh azzavpxdepeh~ pa hzkd`pvk`h kd` edyh~plhdp ed xdhzcavh` kd` zaphdpekccu ~pvadm lkvghp~ ed K~ek kd` fhuad`$Fokm}kpe nallhdph`2 Poh hzavp ~ca}`a}d e~ k phlzavkvu zohdalhdad kd` pohvhk`bx~plhdp~ ed poh mcafkc hnadalu }axc` ~zxv hzavp~$;;
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Vhihv# Iedkdnekc Hzvh~~ /6::5%$
Poe~ vhled`~ x~ kfaxp poh dhh`iav hzavp avehdpkpead$ K~ek }ecc nadpedxh pa hoefep poh oemoh~p mva}po# kd` ohdnh poh vhmeadkckd` edphvdkpeadkc `hlkd` }ecc edhyepkfcu ve~h# kd` ~pvhdmpohd mcafkcerkpead$
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