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Global Food (In)Security and
Brazilian Potential
Ladislau Martin-Neto
R&D Executive DirectorEmbrapa
Brazil
The International Economic Forum of The Americas
Palm Beach Strategic Forum
April, 8, 2014
Ag Production World Ranking – 2013/14
Around 79% of the Brazilian food production is consumed domestically and 21% is shipped to over 180 foreign markets
1
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5
1
1 1 1 1 2 1 2 4 5
37,2
52,6
22,116,4
31,0
7,315,1 15,9
3,1 6,3
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
EXPORT
26,8
79,9
48,6
20,2
40,8
18,1
34,4
15,88,5 7,2
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
PRODUCTION
AGRIBUSINESSSURPLUS OF TRADE BALANCE IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
AGRIBUSINESSSURPLUS OF TRADE BALANCE IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Brazil – Agriculture Production Perspective 2010-30, (% INCREASE IN MILLIONS - TONNES )
Brazil – Agriculture Production Perspective 2010-30, (% INCREASE IN MILLIONS - TONNES )
29%
41%
54%
26%
48%
16%
38%
49%
61%
19%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Cotton
Rice
Coffee
Beans
(Phase
olus)
Sugar cane
Cassav
a
Maize
Soybea
n
Sorghum
Wheat
Meat
(eq. c
arca
ss)
Product 2010 2030
Cotton 3.8 4.9
Rice 12.6 17.7
Coffee 2.8 4.5
Sugar cane 712 1.050
Beans (Phaseolus) 3.4 4.3
Product 2010 2030
Cassava 27.1 31.5
Maize 55.6 76.7
Soybean 67.8 100.9
Sorghum 2.1 3.4
Wheat 6.0 7.2
Meat (eq. carcass) 9.3 13.9
Brazil- Growth of Agricultural Productivity Grains - (1976/2011)
154,20
48,86
3.156
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
140,00
160,00
1976
/77
1977
/78
1978
/79
1979
/80
1980
/81
1981
/82
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2009
/11
Yie
ld (
kg/h
a)
Pro
du
ctio
n (m
illio
n t
on
s) a
nd
area
(m
illio
n h
a)
Production (million tons) Area (million ha) Yield (kg/ha)
+ 228%Variation, 1976/77 to 2010/11 + 31% + 151%
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Development
Pho
to: C
láud
io M
orõe
s
» Cassava.......87%
» Milk...............58%
» Beans.............70%
» Beef..........30%
» Poultry..... 50%
» Corn........ 46%
» Pork...... 59%
» Rice......... 34%
Contribution of Small-holder Farmers
Brazilian Agriculture
» Farming area: 106.8 million hectares
» 12 million producers (1/3 of them are women)
» 24% of agricultural area
» 84% of land owners in Brazil
Brazilian Support to Small-holder Farmers
• Creation of additional Ministry of Agrarian Development, in 2000 (maintained original Ministry of Agriculture)
• Specific Annual Program to finance small farms production
• However data of 2006 (IBGE):•4.4 million of farmers declared income
•0.5 million farmers (11%) – 87 % of production value
•3.9 million farmers (89%)- 13% of production value (many of them in poverty conditions)
• So an important challenge remains to improve conditions to small-holder farmers (creation of new Rural Extension Agency this year by Brazilian Governor)
Renewable Energy in Brazil
14
45
86
55
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
World Brazil RENEWABLE
NON-RENEWABLE
Total area 850 M ha
Amazonian and other preservation areas
500 M ha
Potential of Agricultural Land
350 M ha
Today- Grains and perennial
60 M ha (sugarcane- 8 M
ha; reforestation- 6 M ha
Pasture- 190 M ha
Areas to be cultivated
100 M ha
87% of sugarcane Production(4 million ha – ethanol production)
CERRADOCERRADO(SAVANNAH -(SAVANNAH -
200 Mi ha)200 Mi ha)
AMAZONAMAZONAMAZONAMAZON
SEMI-ARIDSEMI-ARID
SUBTROPICALSUBTROPICAL
Land-Use in Brazil
PROTECTED
In the future, increasing fraction of agricultural
production will have to be mobilized via trade since
the distribution of the world population by
region does not follow the distribution of arable land
In the future, increasing fraction of agricultural
production will have to be mobilized via trade since
the distribution of the world population by
region does not follow the distribution of arable land
Global Arable Areas and Population - 2009
Water stress indicator (WSI) in major basinsIrrigation- consumption of 70% of world water
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture by 2080
Source: based on Cline, W. R. 2007. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Washington D.C.: Peterson Institute
Available at: http://www.unep.org/geo/pdfs/geo5/GEO5_report_full_en.pdf
- The poorest areas of the globe are the most challenging to agriculture -Intense biotic (pests) and abiotic (drought, flood, soil acidity, low nutrients, etc) stresses.
All these challenges will be intensified with the global climatic changes.
- The poorest areas of the globe are the most challenging to agriculture -Intense biotic (pests) and abiotic (drought, flood, soil acidity, low nutrients, etc) stresses.
All these challenges will be intensified with the global climatic changes.
Fonte: FAO - 2004
Milh
ões d
e h
aCropped areas in the world
Pastùreland and no utilized areas
Agriculture
Mill
ion
ha
SOURCE: FAO 2004
Bra
zil
US
A
Ru
ssia
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
Au
stra
lia
Can
ada
Arg
enti
na
Ind
on
esia
Co
lom
bia
Ven
ezu
ela
Fra
nce
Preventive Plant Breeding Preventive Plant Breeding
Development of plant varieties Development of plant varieties resistant to high risk quarantine resistant to high risk quarantine pests and pathogenspests and pathogens
Preventive Plant Breeding
Program designed to develop, in advance, genetic stocks of different crops which are resistant to quarantine organisms, prior to their
entrance in the country.
ANGOLASoybean
Red Leaf BlotchPhoma glycinicola
PANAMARice
Bacterial BlightXanthomonas oryzae
pv. oryzae
RicePanicle Blight
Burkholderia glumae
CHILECommon Bean
Halo Blight Pseudomonas savastanoi
pv. phaseolicola
Preventive BreedingInternational Partners
PORTUGALMaize
Late Wilt of CornHarpophora maydis
BRAZIL
SoybeanRed Leaf Blotch
Phoma glycinicola
UNITED STATES
soybean rust2013 – poliphagous larvaecaused by Helicoverpa armigeraHelicoverpa armigera
Subtotal 2013:>US$4.6 billions
88Field Experiment 2013/2014 Season Soybean
Field Experiment 2013/2014 Season Soybean
Areb- transgenic
40°C (104 °F) - 49 days – rainfall 44 mmTypical rainfall season 300 mm
conventional
Soybean Experimental Field
Fonte: MAPA, 2010 – Fotos de Votorantin Metais
Land use intensification
Low Carbon Emission Agriculture Program
Integrated system- crop-livestock-forest
Structuring Projects in Africa
Nacala corridorNacala corridor
BrazilBrazil13º S
17º S
Lichinga
Nampula
Similar biomes Similar challenges New learning opportunities A common vision for the future
Pro-Savannah Project - Mozambique
Sharing Knowledge of Tropical Agriculture
www.embrapa.br
Thank you
“…But the availability of farmland is in fact only a secondary reason for the extraordinary growth in Brazilian agriculture. If you want the primary reason in three words, they are Embrapa, Embrapa, Embrapa.” The Economist,
August 28th 2010The Economist, August 28th 2010