2017 GFPR OverviewFood and Nutrition Security under Rapid Urbanization

Nutrition Transition Value ChainsUrban Hunger

Informal Markets

Regional Development

sFood Policy Indicators

Rural-Urban Linkages

Looking back at 2016A glimmer of hope

• Global extreme poverty and hunger rates declined

• Food prices remained low

• 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Paris Agreement & ICN2 follow-up began implementation

• Urbanization elevated in global agenda

?Political changes

Stagnant economic growth

Rising inequality

Ongoing conflicts

Continued climate and environmental challenges

Looking forward to 2017Great uncertainties

Looming famines in Northern Nigeria, Yemen,

Somalia, South Sudan

Persistent hunger and malnutrition

Urbanization in the spotlight

Projected urban share of global population

Urban67%

20502014

Urban54%

Growth of urban population in major regions

• Urban growth creates opportunities for rural producers

• Rural-urban linkages help propel economic development, food security, and nutrition

• Broken value chains and poor coordination weaken linkages, hold back progress

Rural-urban linkages

Rural-urban linkages are crucial for ending hunger and malnutrition

Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017

Example of activities enhancing rural-urban linkages

Benefits

Processing & storage facilities Reduced food loss Increased food

diversity

Improved coordination & planning

More labor & market opportunities for

smallholders

Land use mgmt & improved food

security

Leveraging intermediate towns &

citiesIncreased scale of &

access to marketsImproved food

access & quality

Rural-urban linkages

Strong links for achieving improved food systems and multiple SDGs

Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017

Rural-urban linkages

Lessons learned

• Improved infrastructure in the Red River Delta in Viet Namo Better road and transport systems, communications infrastructure, and connections

to input suppliers spurred agricultural intensification and crop diversification

• Role of small- and medium-sized towns and cities in Ethiopiao Improvements to access roads, ICT access, and market infrastructure helped small

towns become centers for agricultural input and produce sales

• Global value chain development and urban growth in Ghanao Expansion of cocoa production, processing, and trade raised farm incomes and

stimulated urban economic activity through increased trade and business services

Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017

Rural-urban linkages

Policy and research needs

Graziano da Silva and Fan 2017

• How can policy coordination between rural and urban be improved?

• How can value chains be made more inclusive and efficient?

• How can small- and medium-sized towns best be leveraged to facilitate social and economic links?

• How can rural investments be better targeted?

• What policies and programs on social protection can improve resilience in rural and urban areas?

Urban hunger

Growing cities, new challenges

• Burdens of malnutrition are shifting to urban areaso One in three stunted children lives in an urban areao Rapid increases in overweight and obesity concentrated in urban areas

• The urban poor face unique challengeso Dependence on cash and the informal sectoro Vulnerability to income & price shockso Limited access to basic services

Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017

Urban hunger

Policy and research needs

Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017

• What is the extent of poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition in urban areas?

• What is the quality of urban diets, what are the nutrient gaps, and what are the dietary patterns that increase health risks?

• How can we best tailor programs and policies to support the urban poor in tackling the distinct challenges of urban life?

Nutrition transition

Urbanization and the nutrition transition

Hawkes, Harris, and Gillespie 2017

• A “nutrition transition” is underwayo From consumption of coarse grains, staple cereals, and pulses to

consumption of more animal-source foods, sugar, fats and oils, refined grains, and processed foods

• Overweight and obesity & other diet-related diseases are rising

• Urban food environments pose challenges and opportunitieso Easier access to unhealthy diets AND nutritious foods (for those who

can afford them)

Nutrition transition

NOURISHING policy framework

Hawkes, Harris, and Gillespie 2017

• Ten potential actions, three policy areaso Food environmentso Food systemso Behavior change

• Recent actions includeo “Warning” labels on foods with

high fat, sugar, and salt in Chile and Ecuador

o Restrictions on food marketing to children in Mexico, Korea, and Taiwan, China

Nutrition transition

Policy and research needs

Hawkes, Harris, and Gillespie 2017

• What are people eating and how is the urban food environment shaping their choices?

• How can food retailers and services make a greater contribution toward creating an enabling environment for good nutrition?

• What experiences with national and municipal-level policies to address the nutrition transition can help inform policy makers regarding, for example,o Food-labeling requirements to provide consumers with more information o Taxes on less healthy foods o School meal programso Affordable “popular” restaurants

Agricultural value chains

How cities reshape food systems

Minten, Reardon, and Chen 2017

• Drivers of change: Increased commercial flows of agricultural goods, diet transformation, greater role of commercial markets

• “Quiet revolution” in staple-food value chainso Increased investment in technology & modern inputso Greater vertical integration with growing scale of midstream & retail

sectionso Rise of mobile phone use by farmers for market information

Agricultural value chains

Transport costs and adoption of modern technologies in Ethiopia

Agricultural value chains

Policy and research needs

Minten, Reardon, and Chen 2017

• What is the impact of growth in post-farmgate segments and urban markets on employment, prices, and food security for both rural and urban populations?

• How can governments best kick-start changes in agricultural value chains, including through investment in o Road and communications infrastructureo Reliable electricity gridso Agricultural research and development

Governance of informal markets

Informal food markets are key in African cities

• In Africa, where urbanization is most rapid, urban poor rely heavily on informal markets for accessible, affordable foodo Most eggs, meat, fish, and milk sold to urban poor are from informal

markets

• Policies face institutional, administrative, political challengeso Lack of local mandate for food securityo Lack of policy integration across sectors & ministrieso Political contest over cities can lead to violence

Resnick 2017

Governance of informal markets

Governments often focus on control, regulation, or eradication of urban informal food economy

Resnick 2017

Governance of informal markets

Policy and research needs

• What tools can institutionalize regular engagement between local governments and informal workers?

• How can the informal economy be actively incorporated into discussions of urban food security?

• How can cooperation between sectors and ministries be promoted to improve governance of the informal sector?

• What approaches, such as training informal sector workers, can improve food safety and support the benefits provided by the sector?

Resnick 2017

Regional and national developments

Africa• Slow, uneven progress in poverty,

hunger, and malnutrition reduction• Drought in Eastern, Southern Africa

East Asia• Established ASEAN Risk Assessment

Center for Food Safety• Resilience-building in response to El Niño

Central Asia• Growing trend of regional integration &

harmonization in cross-border trade• Increased Chinese involvement in agriculture

Latin America & Caribbean• 3.5 million affected by El Niño-related drought• Rising obesity and consumption of processed

foods

Middle East & North Africa• Persistent conflict• Algiers, Dubai, Tunis joined the Milan

Urban Food Policy Pact

South Asia• Greater diversification toward nutritious &

high-value crops• New crop-insurance, health protection schemes

for the poor (e.g. India)

Regional developments: Africa

Average annual GDP growth, 2000-2014 and 2015-2016

• Slow but steady progress in poverty, hunger, and malnutrition reduction o BUT commodity prices and external finance

remain low

• Continued efforts to support the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP)o New continentwide campaign to raise

investments in agriculture in the region

• Ongoing challenges for 2017o Impacts of drought and climate change o Conflicto Rapid urbanization

Makombe, Collins, and Badiane 2017

Regional developments: Middle East and North Africa

Food import dependency, agricultural value added, and city growth in MENA• Conflict remains key barrier

o About ½ the population of Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen require humanitarian assistance

• Food import dependency likely to rise as populations urbanize and grow

• Outlook for 2017o Tackling root causes of conflicto Preparing strategies to transform agrifood

systems for growing food import dependency, urbanization

Breisinger, Abdelaziz, and Khouri 2017

Regional developments: Central Asia

Total remittance inflows from Russia(2010-2016, quarters 1-3)• Adjusting to external shocks to trading partners

o Low commodity prices and economic slowdown in Russia reduced remittances

• Crop diversification and nutritiono Increased focus on horticulture for export and to

help address under- and overnutrition

• Strengthening regional integration by improving institutions and infrastructure

• Looking forwardo Mitigate risks from external economic shockso Establish monitoring and evaluation framework

for policiesAkramov, Park, and Ilyasov 2017

Regional developments: South Asia

• Fastest regional economic growth in world (7.1% in 2016)o Yet South Asia is home to 35% of world’s poor

• Urbanization and food securityo From 2001-2015, urban population grew by 186 milliono Over 130 million live in slums with limited access to water and sanitation facilities, basic services

• Commitments to improve agriculture, food security, and nutritiono Bangladesh: Enactment of National Nutrition Policyo India: Pledged to double farmers’ income by 2022, launch of new health protection schemeo Nepal: Increased agricultural budget by ~40%, set targets to reduce hunger and malnutrition

• Looking forwardo Challenges: Climate change, unplanned urbanization remain challengeso Opportunities: Enhancing food systems and intraregional trade

Kumar, Ahmed, Davis, and Joshi 2017

Regional developments: South Asia

Growth rates in GDP and agricultural GDP in South Asia 2003-2015

Urban population as a percentage of total population in South Asia 2001-2015

World Bank 2016

Regional developments: East Asia

Consumption share in terms of expenditures by product in rural and urban areas of East Asian countries, 2010

• Impact of El Niñoo Prolonged drought led to lower rice production,

challenges for food securityo Response: New investments and plans to build

resilience

• Shifting diets and urbanizationo Rice provides 43% of daily calories, yet diets are

changing rapidly toward more meat, fish, dairyo Diet changes more rapid in urban areas

• Challenges for 2017o Food safetyo Overnutritiono Resource scarcity

Chen, Timmer, and Dawe 2017

Regional developments: Latin America and the Caribbean

Inequality trends in LAC subregions2000-2014

• Challenges in 2016o Political and economic difficultieso El Niño impacted export and staple crop production,

affected 3.5 million peopleo Persistent inequality: Most unequal region in world

• Most urbanized developing regiono 80% of population live in citieso Continued expansion of supermarkets improves food

availability, but also consumption of processed foods

• Looking aheado Uncertainty for LAC economieso Need for macroeconomic and sectoral plans, mid-

and long-term investmentsDíaz-Bonilla and Torero 2017

Food policy indicators

Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators

ASTI FPRCI GHI

IMPACT SPEED TFP

Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators Global Hunger Index

Agricultural Total Factor Productivity

Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic

Development

International Model for Policy Analysis of AgriculturalCommodities and Trade

Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators

Investment in agricultural research in most developing countries fall below 1% of agricultural GDP target

ASTI

Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators

A generation gap threatens future agricultural research

ASTI

Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators FPRCI

Research capacity varies—even within developing regions

Number of publications produced by developing country researchers

ranges widely

Global Hunger Index GHI

Hunger is declining but still serious in

South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara

Global Hunger Index

Similar scores reflect different challengesSouth Asia faces higher child stunting, while Africa south of

the Sahara faces higher undernourishment

GHI

International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade

IMPACT

Demand for food will grow, and composition

of diets will shift toward fruits and

vegetables, pulses, and meats

International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade

Demand for cereals will grow most rapidly in

Africa south of the Sahara

IMPACT

International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade

Risk of hunger projected to

decline to 5% globally by 2050

IMPACT

Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development

SPEED

Developing countries spend

less on agriculture, but the gap is

shrinking

Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development

Spending patterns differ across developing regions

SPEED

Total Factor Productivity TFP

Output per worker doubled from 1991 to 2013, with 70% of growth explained by TFP

Total Factor Productivity

TFP growth rates differ across regions

TFP

Urbanization presents opportunities for both rural and urban areas to end hunger and malnutrition