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Global Futures& Foresight
The Reset World
• Facing the future• Growth drivers
– Globalisation
– Economies
– Populations
– Markets
– Business Models
– Technology
• Opportunity
• Why standards, why now?
Global Futures& Foresight
Company Individual Commercial
Strategy
Vision
Implementation
ResourcesVision Foresight
Culture Behaviour Cycles
Values Comms Capability
Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2011
Global Futures& Foresight
Global Futures& Foresight
Five Mega Trends
1. Globalisation Global business, new economies, local CSR
2. Energy and resourcesTowards sustainable business
3. Climate change and environmental pollution
Finding solutions
4. Changes in the world of work Winning the war for talent
5. New consumption patternsMoral economy, new and informed consumers
http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
Global Futures& Foresight
“The size of the world economy will triple over the next four decades as emerging-market economies wield increasing power”
January 4th 2011HSBC Holdings Plc
Global Futures& Foresight
Changing influence
http://www.gspip.com/_files/download/CH_engl_GS07352_Fly_Next11_24.pdf
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Economic Group
Global Futures& Foresight
E7 overtakes G7 in 2019Figure 1: E7 could overtake G7 by 2020
0
10000
20000
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2000
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Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter
GD
P a
t P
PP
s (c
on
stan
t 20
08 I$
)
G7 GDP
E7 GDP
Convergence OvertakingCatch-up
Source: PwC: January 2010 http://www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/Content/Detail.asp?ReleaseID=3547&NewsAreaID=2
G7 E7USA ChinaJapan IndiaGermany BrazilUK MexicoFrance RussiaItaly IndonesiaCanada Turkey
Global Futures& Foresight
Consumers (000’s)
Source: UN Population Division http://esa.un.org/unpp/
5 billion consumers
650 million consumers
Global Futures& Foresight
Consumer outlook - Asia
• Asia, excluding Japan, spends $5,500bn a year on personal consumption. (HSBC)
• $17,600bn in the US and Europe. • China‘s growth is explosive.• Average incomes - lower than Albania.
Frederic Neumann,
Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong
• China is capable of boosting consumption by up to 50% by 2025– 36% of GDP – lowest of any major economy
– 50% by 2025. Study by Jonathan Woetzel for McKinsey Global Institute
Source: HSBC, quoted in the FT, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/87fb0322-0945-11df-ba88-00144feabdc0.html
Global Futures& Foresight
$40 trillion infrastructure challenge
Water Power Road and Rail Air/ seaport Total
North America
$3.62 $1.53 $0.94 $0.43 $6.52
Latin/South America
$4.97 $1.44 $1.01 $0.06 $7.48
Europe $4.52 $1.08 $3.12 $0.43 $9.15
Asia / Oceania
$9.04 $4.23 $2.11 $0.51 $15.89
Other (MENA)
$0.46 $0.72 $0.62 $0.16 $1.96
Source: Cohen & Steers Global Infrastructure Fund 2009 http://www.cohenandsteers.com/downloads/14/fundguide.pdf
Global Futures& Foresightwww.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org
2011 7 billion
The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050
Global population growth
Global Futures& Foresight
Islamic population
• Global population increases by 1.3 bn from 2010 to 2030• Muslim countries will contribute 600m people. (46%). • In 2010 23% by 2030 are 26% of world population.• This could rise to 33% in 2050 and 37% by 2100.• Muslims under15 will rise from 500,000 to 1.8m by 2030.
$2.7 trillion today $10 trillion by 2030
http://amirmizroch.com/2011/01/28/pew-world%E2%80%99s-muslim-population-to-increase-35-in-next-20-years/
Global Futures& Foresight
Changing Global Influence
Global economic dominance 1850-1950
Global economic dominance from 1950
Global economic dominance in the
future
Global population dominance in the
future
Global Futures& Foresight
Halal markets• Travel• Tourism• Hospitality• ICT• Portals• Web sites• Media• Banking• Lifa Assurance• Insurance• Investments• Capital Markets
• Property development• Real Estate• Logistics• Warehousing• Industrial Parks• Health• Cosmetics• Fashion• Shopping• Education• Recreation• Food
Defining standards – facilitating growth
Global Futures& Foresight
Middle East Population AgeAgeing
•Bahrain 29.4 33.6 40.9•Egypt 24 27.2 36.1 •Iran 24.8 30.8 40.6•Jordan 23 25.8 37•Kuwait 25.9 33.8 40.1•Lebanon 27.8 31.5 40.2•Oman 19 27 37.2•Qatar 31.7 33.9 41.9•Saudi Arabia 21.4 25.7 36•Syria 20.7 25.4 37.1•Turkey 28.1 31 40.7•UAE 28.1 33.5 40.3•Yemen 16.6 18.8 27.7
Country Average Age Average Age Average Age Today 2020 2050
Global Futures& Foresight
And we’re living longer lives
Human life expectancies have the potential to reach 500, or possibly even 1000.
“The first person to live to 1,000 might be 60 already”
Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A., M.A. and Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Born 20th April 1963 -
Global Futures& Foresight
Obesity
By 2015, approximately 2.3 billion adults will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese. (The World Health Organisation)
By 2050 40% of US population obese.
Global Futures& Foresight
World food demand doubles to 2050
• 50% from population growth.
– All in developing countries
• 50% from economic growth.
– in low income countries
Dr. Robert Thompson, University of Illinois
Global Futures& Foresight
Food wastage
“Roughly 40% of the food
currently produced worldwide is wasted before it is consumed.”Brian Halweil of the Worldwatch Institute
“We are seeing a trend toward ethical consumerism,” Jens Lönneker, Cologne
based Rheingold
http://pennalternativefuels.com/content/innovative-local-farming-key-global-hunger-fight-group-says
http://www.greenerpackage.com/green_marketing/interpack%E2%80%99s_eye_sustainability
Global Futures& Foresight
Food production innovation
• Food prices to triple by 2050. October 2009 - International Food Policy Research
Institute .
• Without climate change prices rise:– 40% for wheat
– 60% for both rice and maize by 2050• As the world population grows.
• With climate change:– Wheat prices to rise 170% to 194%
– Rice prices 113% to 121%
– Maize to go up 148% to 153%.
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute ‘Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation’ November 2009 http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-impact-agriculture-and-costs-adaptation
Global Futures& Foresight
People in water stress by 2030 Millions of people
Source: ‘OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030: Key Results’ 2008http://www.oecd.org/document/26/0,3343,en_2649_34305_40243802_1_1_1_1,00.html
OECD countries
Global Futures& Foresight
Scarce resources
• By 2030 - energy demand up 55%.
• Scramble for resources will be a major cause of conflict.
• The solution is to be more efficient and promote sustainability.
• Sustainability & efficiency reduce cost & raise the company’s value.
http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
Rising sea levels, increasing droughts and famine, and a decrease in water availability will have dramatic impacts
Global Futures& Foresight
Increasing scarcity of key materials for many technologies
Figures do not take into account new demand arising from new technologies
Source: LabNol ‘How Long Will Rare Metals Last?’ October 2009http://www.labnol.org/home/how-long-will-metals-last/10648/
Global Futures& Foresight
New Polar sea route
Ice gone completely in summer within 10 yearsPen Hadow, Arctic Explorer
Global Futures& Foresight
Islamic Banking to Double…
• Global Islamic banking:– $1 trillion in 2010. – $2 trillion by 2015 - 2017International Islamic Finance Forum Abu Dhabi (Oct 2010).
• Focus on ethical banking values.
“Islamic banks using the foundation of Islam, should lead the way for an ethical banking structure. This will pave the way for a profitable future and be an example to conventional banking industry,” Afaq Khan, chief executive officer, Standard Chartered
http://www.tradearabia.com/news/bank_187194.html
Global Futures& Foresight
…Or Possibly Quadruple?
• By 2020 Islamic banks will handle 40% to 50% of all savings of the Muslim population. Dr. Nasser Saidi, Chief Economist of the Dubai International
Financial Centre - December 1st 2010 that in
• Islamic financial services would total $4 trillion by 2020.
http://www.al-shorfa.com/cocoon/meii/xhtml/en_GB/features/meii/features/business/2010/12/04/feature-02
Global Futures& Foresight
Expansion of Takaful Insurance
• Islamic household savings will reach $24bn a year by 2020. Accenture, the global management consultancy, forecasts
• Global Takaful to pass $8.8bn in contributions last year.
• Ernst & Young’s World Takaful Report 2010: Managing performance in a recovery, unveiled at the 5th Annual World Takaful Conference of 2010,
http://www.thenational.ae/business/banking/islamic-insurance-on-the-risehttp://www.ey.com/EM/en/Newsroom/News-releases/2010-news--Global-takaful-market-forecast-to-surpass
Global Futures& Foresight
Halal food
• Global demand rising.
• Expected to grow at 20% by 2025 Hamid Badawi, Deputy Chief Executive of UAE Al Islami Foods.
• Halal food accounts for 16% of the world food trade - just less than proportionate to the Muslim population. IHIA statistics.
http://gulfnews.com/business/general/halal-food-numbers-look-tasty-1.679007
Global Futures& Foresight
Islamic Travel & Tourism
• As a concept, Islamic tourism has three main components.1. The revival of Islamic cultures and
the spread of Islamic values.
2. Economic benefit for Islamic societies.
3. Deepening Islamic self-confidence, identity and beliefs.
http://www.staff.uni-mainz.de/alhamarn/Islamic%20Tourism%20-%20paper%20for%20BRISMES%202004.htm
Global Futures& Foresight
Middle East Air Traffic to Double by 2017
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-2029.pdf
Global Futures& Foresight
Islamic Tourism• Almulla Hospitality is to open
150 Halal hotels by 2015,
– In Middle East, Europe and N. America.
• Jawhara hotels aiming for 25% Sharia-compliant hotels in Dubai.
• Spending 2.5% of net profit as Zakah.
• Interest is spreading beyond companies in Muslim countries.
http://wardheernews.com/News_10/July/07_halal_tourism_goes_mainstream.html
Global Futures& Foresight
Islamic Tourism• Kempinski, Zurich-based, is
building 30 hotels with Islamic company Guidance Financial Group by 2015.
– Opening in N. Africa, gulf region and Europe.
• Best Western, offers Halal hotels in Malaysia, Bahrain and Oman.
• Rezidor Hotel Group, Brussels-based, predicts Sharia-compliant hospitality to grow 20% per year over this decade.
http://wardheernews.com/News_10/July/07_halal_tourism_goes_mainstream.html
Global Futures& Foresight
Education
• Not-for-profit organization created and sustained by Salman Khan.– The world's first free, world-class
virtual school. – A high quality education to anyone,
anywhere– Tens of thousands of videos in pretty
much every subject
• YouTube-hosted tutorials:– 35,000 views per day – Dec. 2009– 70,000 – Aug. 2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khan_Academyhttp://money.cnn.com/2010/08/23/technology/sal_khan_academy.fortune/index.htm
Global Futures& Foresight
Science and R&D
• Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) to make universities more science-oriented. Higher education and science and technology ministers
from member countries of the Jeddah-based
• ‘A research-centric education is the only way out of economic problems. (Jan 2011) OIC Secretary General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu
• The OIC's target is to spend 1% of GDP on R&D.
http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20110114221820749
Global Futures& Foresight
Drivers of the consumer shift
1. Better educated (more savvy).2. Buying in accordance with values.3. Transparency – internet facilitated.4. Social media penetration.5. Smart technology6. Demand for personalized products.7. Lower barriers to entry in many
industries increases competition..8. Trust in business. (or lack of)9. The rise of Green.10.Service differentiation
Global Futures& Foresight
Muslim Consumer power
• US Muslims buying power is $200bn - $25,000 per person.
• 1.6bn Muslims worldwide, generate a current Muslim lifestyle market value of $2 trillion
• At 25% of US spending, global Muslim spend could reach $10 trillion a year.
http://halalrc.blogspot.com/2010/11/usa-10-facts-about-muslim-consumer.html
(2) http://www.bne.eu/story2453/Turkey_fashions_a_slice_of_international_Muslim_lifestyle_market
Global Futures& Foresight
Global consumer consciousness
• Consumers Want a product with an "added social benefit."
• Consumers want companies to:– Meet their needs and simultaneously– Have a positive impact on society.
• Opportunities for brands with real depth in their stories to step forward and take extra share.
Source: Fast Company, September 2010 http://www.fastcompany.com/1689263/leadership-philanthropy-is-the-gateway-to-power
Source: PSB Research, March 2010 http://www.psbresearch.com/PSbBlog/post/2010/03/29/CSR-Branding-Survey-2010-Presentation.aspx
http://www.brandweek.com/bw/content_display/news-and-features/direct/e3icc3fec8640be4714853d38671ecf3f29
PURPOSE
Global Futures& Foresight
Premise underlying re-invention
• Reconfigured relationships.• Mash-up business models.• Consumer increasingly powerful.• Innovation is a key differentiator.• Convenience & Quality expected.
http://media.economist.com/images/20050402/1405LD1.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Technology driven innovation• 70’s and 80
– technology-led innovation.
• 80’s and 00’s
– marketing-led innovation.
• Social computing leads us to Social Innovation. Forrester.
• Driven by empowered people.
Source: Forrester, http://blogs.forrester.com/cio/2010/02/the-new-era-of-social-innovation.html
Global Futures& Foresight
• Global relationships• Learning• Sourcing ideas• Co-creation• Recruitment• Building relationships• Community engagement• Networked business models
Social networks
Over 1.5 billion people in top 40 Social Networks
Source: The GFF Pulse expert panel survey
Doing business networks
Global Futures& Foresight
Value creation shifting from workers to outside the enterprise
• Organisations are increasingly outnumbered by the resources provided by their network.
• Real business value coming from the social world as we learn to engage.
• Significant trends such as:– Crowd-sourcing– Open and social supply chains– Open innovation– Social media marketing– Social CRM
http://www.dachisgroup.com/2010/08/six-social-business-trends-to-watch/
http://www.sugarcube.in/social/smarter-social-business-person-7-tips/
Global Futures& Foresight
Disruptive technologies• Internet II• Nano• 3D• Social media• Mobile broadband• Virtual real worlds• Electronic media• Large Glass displays• Interactive displays• Jamming• The Grid• Holograms• Humanoid robots• Genetic Engineering
Global Futures& Foresight
Rate of adoption of new technologies
Years until used by 25% of US population
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
4
8
12
24
60
ElectricityRadio
TelephoneTelevision
PC
Mobile Phone
Internet
Source: Kurzweil Institute
Global Futures& Foresight
New era of mass communication
• Today's Internet - 1.73 bn users. Internet World Stats.
• World population - 6.9 bn people.
• 2020 Internet to have 5 bn users National Science Foundation in the U.S
• 2012 the internet will be:
– 75 times its size in 2000.
– 400 times traffic due to online video.
• 2020 most access internet via mobile
• http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=96642
• http://networks.silicon.com/webwatch/0,39024667,39193696,00.htm
• http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/11665/comms/telecoms-industry-sees-opportunity-in-tough-times
Global Futures& Foresight
• The Singularity• The Semantic Web• Virtual Worlds• Augmented Reality• Personalized Marketing• Evolving Personal
Technological Ecosystem
Communications Technologies
http://www.uwplatt.edu/web/presentations/PennState/ar/pix/augmented-reality-hud.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Artificial Intelligence
• Artificial Intelligence’s - we will interact with it just like humans.
• There are fewer human interactions but they take a more strategic focus.
• Face recognition that identifies emotional changes.
• Mood Analytics.
Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394
10
24 hours a day, 7 days a week online and available
Global Futures& Foresight
What’s changing?
• Economies• Populations• People• Planet• Markets• Education• Work• Business models• Technology
Everything and everybody
Fix the foundations and get set for growth
Global Futures& Foresight
“If everything seems under control, you’re just not going fast enough.”
Mario Andretti
Global Futures& Foresight
Imagine itIf you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead
+44 7932 408901
Thank you
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